Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 20 October 2014

Political and security risk updates


These briefings are produced by Bradburys Global Risk Partners in collaboration
with Open Briefing.
Africa: Ebola continues to destabilise a nuber of !est "frican countries#
Aericas: Boli$ia%s incubent president& E$o 'orales& wins landslide $ictory#
Asia and Pacific: (ittle progress ade in dialogue between )orth and *outh +orea#
!urope: ,kraine& -ussia and E, agree to gas talks but fail to reach agreeent on the
crisis in eastern ,kraine#
"iddle !ast: "ttentions turn to (ebanon in balancing regional sectarian threat#
Polar regions: -ussia set to e.pand "rctic territory by 1&1/0 s1uare kiloetres#
"frica
!bola continues to destabilise a nuber of #est African countries
Ebola 2irus 3isease 4E235 has spread rapidly across a nuber of !est "frican
countries since the outbreak began in 'arch 2014# "t this stage& 6uinea& (iberia and
*ierra (eone are the worst ipacted countries& with a total of 7&171 people
confired or suspected of ha$ing contracted E23 and 4&04/ confired deaths in
these countries according to the !orld 8ealth Organisation 4!8O5# The infection
rate is e.pected to increase to appro.iately 10&000 people per week by 3eceber#
There ha$e also been a sall nuber of cases in )igeria 4205& *enegal 415& *pain 415
and the ,nited *tates 495# *enegal and )igeria ha$e now been declared Ebola free by
the !8O# Policyakers do not e.pect an iediate increase in infections in
!estern countries due to their well:aintained public healthcare systes and
healthcare infrastructures# 8owe$er& nuerous !estern go$ernents ha$e
increased their controls at access points#
Ebola is not only a public health issue but is also a significant threat to the econoy
and national security of 6uinea& (iberia and *ierra (eone# "ll three countries are
reporting an increased risk of food shortages& reduced household incoe& and
higher uneployent# ;t is estiated that all three countries will face a decline in
63P $arying between 2#0< and 9#4<# =urtherore& refors to the security sector
and >udiciaries appear to ha$e stalled in those countries due the shift in national
priorities# The international counity%s efforts to re:establish peace within these
states ha$e also been put at risk as attention shifts fro disrupting transnational
crie and restricting the spread weapons to cobating Ebola#
Open Briefing | $
)uerous other "frican states are at risk of being affected by Ebola within weeks or onths# ;n addition
to the nuber of people infected& this will ipact on the 63Ps and national security of the effected
states# ?onsidering the increasing le$els of support that international counity is lending to the efforts
to contain the Ebola crisis& it is likely that the outbreak will begin to be contained ore effecti$ely towards
the early onths of 2010# 8owe$er& due to the fact that any states need weeks to obilise the pledged
support& it is highly likely that the situation will worsen before it ipro$es# !hile food stocks will last in
the short ter& declines in household incoe and shortages of work ay create tensions within the
affected states once the international counity withdraws their support following the containent of
the crisis# ;t will be crucial that the international counity support affected states beyond ensuring the
safety of !estern states and until such tie as the econoic and social repercussions of the outbreak
ha$e also been properly addressed#
Other de%elopents
The ceasefire between &igerian go%ernent and Boko 'ara has been underined by fresh attacks
in Borno and Adaawa states. The agreeent was signed by Boko 8ara%s chief security officer& 3anladi
"hadu& and the principal pri$ate secretary to the president& "bassador 8assan Tukur& on 1@ October#
8owe$er& rebel attacks are reported to ha$e occurred less than 24 hours after the agreeent was signed##
Twenty rebels reportedly attacked 'aikadiri and ';chia& burning down houses and shooting randoly into
houses and cars according to ilitary sources# ;t is uncertain whether Boko 8ara will uphold other parts
of the agreeent& including the release of 200 school girls that were abducted fro ?hibok in "pril and
who are supposed to be released by 21

October 2014#
On 1( October) !gyptian security forces arrested #alid Attalah) the leader of the ilitary wing of
*inai+based Ansar Bayt Al+"a,dis. " rocket factory supplying the group was also disco$ered and
destroyed in a separate raid# ;t is not clear whether the two incidents are directly related# "nsar Bayt "l:
'a1dis is responsible for a nuber of assassinations& including that of a high:le$el police general&
'ohaed *aeed& as well as for the death of hundreds of Egyptian soldiers# 'ore recently& the group has
also beheaded nuerous indi$iduals suspected of spying for ;srael%s national intelligence agency& 'ossad#
Tensions are rising in *udan o%er the killing of -& peacekeepers and go%ernent forces as fighting
has continued in .arfur. -ebels fro a faction of the *udan (iberation 'o$eent clai to ha$e killed 21
go$ernent soldiers in an attack on the night of 1/ October# *udan%s security forces retaliated with air
strikes on Burgo and +arko in the East Aebel 'arra region on 1@ October# "ccording to reports& up to 12
bobs were dropped by the *udanese "ir =orce# ;n an unrelated incident& gunen killed three ,)
peacekeepers and stole their patrol $ehicle# ;t is unclear whether or how the gunen are related to the
rebels#
On the radar
Tunisian parliaentary election to be held on $/ October) with the presidential election
scheduled for 29 )o$eber#
0arious opposition parties to protest outside the -* !bassy and "O&-*1O head,uarters in
2inshasa) the capital of .eocratic Republic of 1ongo) on 20 October#
$3 October arks the anni%ersary of the killing of forer 4ibyan leader "uaar Gaddafi.
?elebratory rallies and protests orchestrated by 6addafi%s supporters are both likely#
Open Briefing | 5
"ericas
Boli%ia6s incubent president) !%o "orales) wins landslide %ictory
On 12 October& E$o 'orales won a third presidential ter with o$er /0< of the $ote in Boli$ia%s
presidential election# 8is two ain copetitors& businessan *auel 3oria 'edina and forer
conser$ati$e president Aorge Buiroga& gathered less than 90< of the $ote between the# +ey to 'orales%
landslide $ictory has been the o$erwheling support of indigenous groups& as "yara and Buechua
populations account for appro.iately half of "ndean rural areas# "fter 'orales% $ictory& soe opposition
leaders criticised the electoral process& and claied the increased nuber of eligible Boli$ian $oters and
the alleged loyalty of the *upree Electoral Tribunal to the president was fraudulent# Boli$ian presidents
are technically liited to two consecuti$e ters& but following the proulgation of a new constitution in
2007& 'orales successfully persuaded pliant courts to ignore his first ter#
'orales is an outlier of the Boli$arian "lliance for the Peoples of Our "erica 4"(B"5& a left:wing political
grouping launched by forer 2eneCuelan president 8ugo ?hD$eC to counter ,* influence in the region
and which notably includes Boli$ia& ?uba and 2eneCuela## ;n contrast to the other socialist leaders of the
bloc& 'orales has aintained a high degree of popularity while ensuring high econoic growth and
running a fiscal surplus e$ery year since 2000# 'ost ipressi$ely& Boli$ia%s ratio of international reser$es to
63P reached a record high of ore than 00< in 2007# ;n addition& the country has ade great strides in
cobating po$erty# "ccording to the latest ,)E*?O statistics& Boli$ia%s illiteracy rate has dropped fro
about 14< in 200/ to less than 4< in 2014# *uch ipro$eents ha$e been ade possible thanks to a
careful i. of protectionist and ore liberal policies# !hen he first took office& 'orales partly
nationalised the hydrocarbons industry in order to bankroll his redistributionist agenda# But to retain
in$estors% confidence& the indigenous leader also agreed to liberalise certain sectors& and recently
restored noral ties with the ;'=#
;n spite of the success of the Boli$ian odel o$er the past decade& any see the syptos of a looing
crisis in the recent deceleration of the econoy# 'ost of Boli$ia%s e.ports are unrefined goods& such as
soya oil& hydrocarbons and precious etals# Thus& it is suspected that the fall in coodity prices will
increasingly pose a serious threat to the country%s econoic odel& which would negati$ely ipact on
'orales% redistributionist agenda# ;n addition& the ediocre econoic perforance of neighbouring
countries& such as "rgentina and BraCil& is likely to further deteriorate Boli$ia%s balance of trade#
)e$ertheless& Boli$ia has also hea$ily in$ested in infrastructure and $alue:added industries& while the rise
of a iddle class has boosted doestic consuption# ;ndeed& the ain risk to the Boli$ian odel does not
see to arise fro the econoy but rather fro its o$er:reliance on the figure of 'orales#
Other de%elopents
0ene7uela secured a teporary seat at the -& *ecurity 1ouncil in the first round of %oting on 1/
October. The *outh "erican country earned 1E1 $otes in support of its candidacy at the ,) 6eneral
"ssebly F 02 o$er the 127 $otes needed to clinch the seat# *oon after& 2eneCuelan President )icolDs
'aduro claied the result as a sign that the broader international counity holds the country in high
estee# 2eneCuela lost its last bid in 200/& as it was strongly opposed by the ,nited *tates# But this year&
the Obaa adinistration did not ount a diploatic capaign against the country%s bid#
Open Briefing | 8
Protestors responding to the slow progress ade in the in%estigation of the disappearance of 89
students set fire to the Go%ernent Palace in the "e:ican city of 1hilpancingo on 15 October. The
deonstrators pressed the go$ernent to take further action to locate the reaining 49 students that
went issing last onth& and called for the resignation of 6o$ernor Gngel "guirre& who is belie$ed to be
in$ol$ed in the affair# The protestors threatened ore aggressi$e actions if the authorities failed to speed
up the search for the issing students# They accuse the police of finding the issing students and then
gi$ing the up to Guerreros Unidos& a local drug cartel# The reported disco$ery of 2E charred bodies on /
October near the city of ;guala caused outrage& but the bodies ha$e not yet been identified# ;n response to
the protests& on 14 October the go$ernent announced the death of the Guerreros Unidos leader&
Ben>ain 'ondragHn& during a shootout with security forces#
;ears o%er a 0ene7uelan default are threatening the rule of President &icol<s "aduro. The *outh
"erican country is allegedly at the brink of default due to a sharp fall in oil prices# Oil accounts for about
70< of 2eneCuelan e.port re$enues# Two weeks ago& 2eneCuela deanded an eergency eeting of the
Organisation of the Petroleu E.porting ?ountries 4Opec5 to try to stop the fall in energy prices aid the
country%s struggle to eet its debt obligations# *o far& Opec has not responded to 2eneCuela%s deands&
and is due to eet on 2@ )o$eber# To copensate for its lack of foreign currencies& 2eneCuela
increasingly relies on barter trade deals with ?hina# ;n Auly& 2eneCuela borrowed an additional I4 billion
fro ?hina in return for an additional 100&000 barrels per day of oil on top of the 000&000 barrels a day
2eneCuela already e.ports to ?hina& nearly half of which is payent for the ore than I40 billion they
ha$e already borrowed# " default would se$erely restrict 2eneCuela%s access to foreign capital& which
would lead to draatic shortages of basic goods in the doestic arket#
On the radar
Bra7il presidential election runoff scheduled for $/ October.
-ruguay6s general election scheduled for $/ October.
;urther anti+go%ernent protests planned for $/ October in Port+au+Prince) capital of 'aiti)
calling for the resignation of President 'ichel 'artelly#
"sia and Pacific
4ittle progress ade in dialogue between &orth and *outh 2orea
'ilitary leaders fro )orth +orea and *outh +orea con$ened in the $illage of Panun>o on 10 October#
8owe$er& according to a stateent ade by the *outh +orean go$ernent after the eeting&
negotiations fell short of substantial progress# The eeting ran fro 10J00 to 10J10 local tie# (ocal
reports stated that representati$es fro the )orth +orean ilitary argued that the *outh +orean na$y
should respect its !est *ea guard line%& control anti:Pyongyang and anti:?ounist edia reports& and
stop acti$ists sending balloons filled with anti:)orth +orea aterials across the border# ;n turn& *outh
+orean officials ephasised that they could not control the acti$ities of pri$ate citiCens and the edia in a
deocratic society#

Open Briefing | =
Earlier this onth& the ilitaries of the two sides e.changed fire when a group of *outh +orean acti$ists
used balloons to float currency& radios& inforation regarding the nature of the )orth +orean regie& and
$arious other restricted ites across the border# The )orth +orean ilitary attepted to shoot down the
balloons# *outh +orean edia reported that soe of the shots reached a ci$ilian area& obliging the *outh
to return fire# The other key area of contention discussed at this eeting was the disputed )orthern (iit
(ine 4)((5# The )(( is the disputed de facto aritie dearcation line between the two countries that
was established after the +orean !ar in 1709# )orth +orea disputes the location of this line on the
grounds that it was established by the ,) coand that was largely under the leadership of the ,nited
*tates#
*uch high:le$el eetings between )orth and *outh +orea are relati$ely rare# On 4 October& se$eral top:
le$el )orth +orean officials ade a surprise $isit to *outh +orea on the occasion of the closing of the
;ncheon "sian 6aes# "t that tie& the two sides agreed to resue high:le$el talks# "fter the 10 October
eeting& the *outh +orean go$ernent e.tended an in$itation for further high:le$el talks at the )orth
+orean town of Tongilgak on 90 October# The increased efforts at cross:border counication reflect
positi$ely on bilateral relations between the two countriesK howe$er& they are arred by ongoing and
sporadic conflicts in the border region# 8enceforth& it is likely that any progress at bilateral eetings will
be $ery slow and that sporadic conflicts and displays of ilitary strength by the )orth will continue#
Other de%elopents
At least si: people were killed on 18 October during a %iolent clash in ;uyou %illage in >unnan
Pro%ince) 1hina. The confrontation occurred o$er the building of a new logistics hub in the $illage# =our
people were reportedly burned to death and two beaten to death with steel pipes# 'ore than 1E others
were seriously in>ured# "ccording to local edia& a group of se$eral hundred unifored en dro$e in
trucks and began assaulting a group of deonstrating $illagers# The identity of these indi$iduals is
unclearJ they were reported as construction workers in local edia& but accounts of the e$ents on social
edia suggested that they had e1uipent featuring police insignia# The pro>ect was originally appro$ed in
2011& and has been the source of se$eral clashes& due to disagreeents concerning worker copensation#
"ccording to local sources in the pro$incial capital& +uning& se$eral hundred $illagers participated in the
deonstrations last week# (and de$elopers ha$e also reportedly been seiCing farland in order to
progress the pro>ect# !hile land deonstrations in ?hina are coon& the le$el of $iolence in this
incidence was e.ceptional#
"alaysian authorities ha%e arrested 18 suspected ?slaic *tate ilitants. The arrests took place in
*elangor state and were a part of a three:day anti:terroris operation# The arrested indi$iduals were all
'alaysian citiCens between ages of 14 to 4E# "ccording to 'alaysian authorities& se$eral of the suspects
were reportedly in$ol$ed in the recruiting& financing and transportation of 'alaysians >oining the ;slaic
*tate terrorist group# *e$eral others were reportedly planning to >oin ;slaic *tate in *yria# *ince "pril&
'alaysian authorities ha$e arrested ore than 90 people suspected of aiding ;slaic *tate or seeking to
>oin the organisation# ;n "ugust& 'alaysian counterterroris authorities reportedly stopped an attack on a
foreign:owned brewery in *elangor# The indi$iduals in$ol$ed in that case had allegedly pledged allegiance
to ;slaic *tate and were building e.plosi$es# 3espite ongoing anti:terroris efforts& ore than 90
'alaysians ha$e allegedly >oined ;slaic *tate#
Open Briefing | /
Thai Prie "inister Prayuth 1han+ocha has said that elections scheduled for late+$31= ay be
delayed. "s Prayuth set out for 'ilan& ;taly& to participate in the "sia:Europe 'eeting& he stated that
elections would not be able to proceed unless the country was able to adhere to a refor roadap# The
plans for refors that Prayuth has propagated since coing to power $ia a ilitary coup earlier this year
include the establishent of a new constitution and changes in 11 key policy areas# These changes are
designed to end the influence of forer Prie 'inister Thaksin *hinawatra& the brother of forer Prie
'inister Lingluck *hinawatra# Thaksin *hinawatra cae to power on a set of populist policies that were
designed to earn the $otes of the country%s poor# "t the tie of the ilitary coup& "ustralia& the European
,nion and the ,nited *tates urged the country%s leadership to ake a rapid return to deocracy& and
downgraded diploatic relations with Thailand# Thus& if Prayuth ultiately delays elections& his
adinistration is likely to face intensified international criticis#
On the radar
?ndia is e:pected to pay @=33 illion to ?ran this week to allow the country to reco$er froCen oil
re$enues held o$erseas#
Pakistan Awai Tehreek APATB party to rally in Abbottabad) +hyber Pakhtunkhwa pro$ince&
northeastern Pakistan& on 29 October#
The 1hinese 1ounist Party will hold its 8
th
Plenary *ession of the 19
th
1entral 1oittee
in Bei>ing this week#
Capan and the -nited *tates. are e:pected to continue negotiations regarding the Trans+
Pacific Partnership at an upcoing suit in *ydney& "ustralia& on 20 October#
The head of the -& !conoic and *ocial 1oission for Asia and the Pacific will %isit *outh
2orea on 24 October#
Europe
-kraine) Russia and !- agree to gas talks but fail to reach agreeent on the crisis in eastern -kraine
On 1@ October& the -ussian and ,krainian presidents held talks with the European ,nion in 'ilan& ;taly& on
the sidelines of the "sia:Europe 'eeting# British Prie 'inister 3a$id ?aeron& =rench President =ranMois
8ollande& 6eran ?hancellor "ngela 'erkel and ;talian Prie 'inister 'atteo -enCi also participated in
the talks# 3uring the Npositi$e but difficult talks%& -ussian President 2ladiir Putin and ,krainian President
Petro Poroshenko did not reach a breakthrough on the crisis in ,kraine& but the ,krainian president
reported that the leaders agreed that all the clauses of the 'insk eorandu should be ipleented
and that elections should be allowed to take place in 3onetsk and (uhansk# 3uring the eeting& the
leaders also outlined a deal to sol$e the gas dispute# ;n a bid to ease tensions before the suit& Putin
ordered the reo$al 1@&/00 soldiers presently stationed near the ,krainian border to return to their
original bases on 11 October# 8owe$er& )"TO reported that there was no e$idence of a pullback of
-ussian troops#

Open Briefing | (
On 17 *epteber& +ie$& 'oscow and pro:-ussian separatists in eastern ,kraine agreed at the 'insk
suit to create a 90 kiloetre security Cone& to cease offensi$e operations& to ban flights by cobat
aircraft o$er the security Cone& to allow O*?E onitors to obser$e the region& and to withdraw any foreign
troops# 8owe$er& the 'insk eorandu was ne$er fully ipleented& and fighting in eastern ,kraine
continues despite the ceasefire of 0 *epteber# This new endorseent of the 'insk agreeent indicates
that both sides seek a peaceful resolution within the near futureK howe$er& it is unclear whether either
-ussia or ,kraine will follow through with the ipleentation of the security Cone or if -ussia will
withdraw its troops& which the +relin currently denies are present in eastern ,kraine#
"nother round of the ultilateral talks on the gas dispute has been scheduled for 21 October in Brussels&
Belgiu# On 10 Aune 2014& the -ussian gas copany 6aCpro cut off gas supplies to ,kraine& after +ie$
failed to pay its I4#0 billion debt# The gas talks ha$e becoe a critical issue for ,kraine as the winter
onths set in& and it is highly likely that -ussia will attept to use the gas crisis as le$erage in talks
regarding so$ereignty issues in eastern ,kraine# European ,nion countries iport appro.iately 1/< of
gas supplies fro -ussia& and nearly half this $olue is recei$ed through the ,krainian gas pipelines#
European energy coissioner 6uenther Oettinger reported that the high le$el of gas reser$es would be
sufficient to pre$ent a gas shortage for European ,nion ebersK howe$er& disruptions of gas in ,kraine
are highly likely due to the country%s shortage of gas reser$es#
Other de%elopents
On 1( October) the Polish public prosecutor general) Andr7eD *ereet) announced that a Polish ary
officer and a lawyer had been arrested on suspicion of espionage. "uthorities re$ealed that they had
carried out an e.tensi$e in$estigation into the indi$iduals before the arrests# The identities of the
indi$iduals were not released by the prosecutor general%s officeK howe$er& a eber of the parliaentary
intelligence coittee& 'arek Biernacki& reported that two detained indi$iduals were accused of spying
for -ussia# "ccording to Biernacki& both suspects are belie$ed to ha$e been working for the 6-,& the
-ussian foreign ilitary intelligence directorate# The ilitary officer was working for the Polish inistry of
defence& while the lawyer is of dual -ussian:Polish nationality# Polish 3eputy Prie 'inister AanusC
Piechocinski warned that -ussian diploats could be e.pelled fro Poland for collaborating with the two
suspects if the spying case is confired#
On 1/ October) the !urope of ;reedo and .irect .eocracy A!;..B group collapsed after the e:it
of 4at%ian "!P ?%eta Grigule. 6rigule applied to the European Parliaent President 'artin *chulC to
withdraw her ebership of the E=33 group in order becoe an independent 'EP# The E=33 housed
any of the Eurosceptic 'EPs& including the ,nited +ingdo%s ,+;P 'EPs and the ;talian =i$e *tar
'o$eent%s 'EPs# The E=33 accused *chultC of persuading 6rigule to withdraw fro the group in order
to engineer the E=33%s downfall# " European Parliaent group re1uires a representation of parties fro
at least se$en eber countries# !ithout Ngroup% 1ualification& the E=33 will now suffer fro loss of
funds and fewer opportunities for speaking tie during iportant sessions in the parliaent#

Open Briefing | 9
On 1( October) the *wedish ared forces announced that a ilitary operation was being carried out
near islands surrounding the capital) *tockhol. ?oander Aonas !ikstro reported that ships&
helicopters and se$eral ground units coproising of appro.iately 200 soldiers were taking part#
"uthorities launched the operation following a tip:off of the occurrence of what is being described as
Nforeign underwater acti$ity% in the Baltic *ea fro a credible source# ;n the last few onths& *weden has
logged fre1uent anoeu$res by the -ussian air force in the Baltic *ea& and in *epteber& two -ussian
*,24 fighter:bobers entered *wedish airspace# This latest incident is speculated to in$ol$e a -ussian
subarine or ini:subarine#
On the radar
President of the !uropean 1ouncil 'enry 0an Ropuy will chair the !uropean 1ouncil
eeting on $5+$8 October) with the E, 8igh -epresentati$e ?atherine "shton and President of
the European ?oission 'artin *chulC to attend#
On $1+$$ October) the !uropean Parliaent will debate and %ote on whether to e:tend duty+
free access to the !- arket for -kraine6s e:ports until the end of $31= so as to support
,kraine%s struggling econoy#
A final %ote on !uropean coissioner candidates will be taken on 22 October#
Trilateral gas eeting between the !-) Russia and -kraine will be held in Brussels) Belgiu)
on 21 October#
'iddle East
Attentions turn to 4ebanon in balancing regional sectarian threat
(ebanon has found itself ebroiled in spill:o$er crises fro the ;slaic state and the al:Baeda affiliated al:
)usra =ront in recent onths# " forth (ebanese soldier& "bdul:'one 'ahoud +haled& pre$iously
stationed along the countryOs eastern border with *yria& announced his defection to the ;slaic *tate on
14 October# *eparately& a 17 year:old soldier was killed and doCens ore in>ured in a coordinated attack
on a ilitary con$oy on 1@ October# The latter instigated a nuber of security raids on refugee caps in
Bireh and +hirbet& northern (ebanon& and the detention of at least 00 *yrians belie$ed to be linked to the
*unni terrorist groups#
The latest attacks follow se$eral onths of sectarian tensions within (ebanon between ri$al *unni and
*hiOite factions# 8eCbollah has been pro:acti$e within the country and neighbouring *yria in support of
President Bashar al:"ssadOs regie& fighting daily in the eastern Bekka $alley& the site of a nuber of
refugee caps# Probleatically& while the defected soldiers are unlikely to pose any strategic threat to
the state& it does uch to highlight tensions within the national ary in regard to 8eCbollah%s in$ol$eent
and corresponding ideological disparities# The country has been without political leadership since 'ay&
and the current security situation has eant that the possibility of a national election reains unlikely in
the short ter#

Open Briefing | E
'oreo$er& as the state continues to house large nubers of *yrian refugees& deographic stability and
the policing of the country%s reote border areas reain central challenges# ;ndeed& the ,)Os refugee
agency has placed the nuber of *yrian refugeeOs in Bekka alone to be o$er soe 400&000 indi$iduals# "
lack of political leadership in Beruit& and conflicting reports of border:area $iolence& hold the potential for
(ebanon to collapse into ci$il and sectarian war# "s such& international funding concentrating on both
ilitary and huanitarian support ought to be e.pected in the coing weeks#
Other de%elopents
*treet protests are continuing in *audi Arabia following the death sentence handed down to *hiFite
cleric *heikh &ir al+&ir. Beginning 10 October& a nuber of *audiOs inority *hiOite population took to
the streets in the countryOs east following the sentencing of al:)ir for disobeying the ruling al:*aud
onarchy# !hile the protests ha$e been peaceful& the nuber of *hiOiteOs publicly challenging the regie
is significant# ;ra1Os 6rand "yatollah& *ayed 'uhaed Ta1i al:'odaressi& ;ranian foreign inister 8ossein
"ir:"bdollahian& and (ebanonOs 8eCbollah ha$e each criticised the court%s decision in sentencing al:)ir
and the stateOs treatent of its *hiOite counities# Protests are set to continue in the coing days#
At least 1$ people were killed in >eenFs Radda district on 18 October when 'outhi rebels
e:changed fire with fighters fro al+Gaeda in the Arabian PeninsulaFs AAGAPB Ansar al+*hariah. Ten
people were killed in clashes in al:Bayda pro$ince& and a further eight in the town of ;bb on 1@ October#
2iolence has continued following "B"POs adission of guilt for a suicide bob that killed 4@ 8outhis in
the countryOs capital& *anaOa& the pre$ious week# Both 8outhi rebels and "B"P are copeting for political
and territorial control& and with no substantial ediating dialogue currently in place& $iolence will likely
continue#
A roadside bob killed se%en soldiers in !gyptFs northern *inai Peninsula on 1E October. The blast
reportedly ripped through an aroured $ehicle heading toward suspected ilitant positions& killing se$en
and in>uring si.# *inai has been EgyptOs ost resti$e region since the o$erthrow and iprisonent of
forer president 'ohaed 'orsi in 2019# ;slaist ilitants and supporters of the 'usli Brotherhood
continue to use *inai as an operational base to launch attacks against the state and its security forces#
*poradic $iolence and further targeting of security forces within the peninsula is now alost ine$itable#
On the radar
?ra,i Prie "inister 'aidar al+Abadi is to %isit ?ran on $3 October for talks on BaghdadOs
struggle against the ;slaic *tate#
Representati%es of the ?ranian go%ernent are to continue nuclear talks with the
P=H1I!-5H5 in 2ienna& "ustria& on 22:29 October#
The Palestinian Authority is e:pected to subit a draft resolution to the -& *ecurity 1ouncil
to end ?sraeli occupation of its territories) despite international pressure not to#
8 &o%eber arks the anni%ersary of the beginning of the hostage crisis at the -* ebassy
in Tehran) ?ran) in 1E(E) which lasted for 444 days#

Open Briefing | 13
Polar regions
Russia set to e:pand Arctic territory by 1)1/= s,uare kiloetres
"fter the copletion of a recent cartographic sur$ey conducted by -ussian oceanographic $essels& -ussia
is set to e.pand its econoic territory in the (apte$ *ea by 1&1/0 s1uare kiloetres# The e.pansion coes
after -ussian pilots spotted a pre$iously undisco$ered island in the region in 2019# !hile co$ering a land
space of only 120 by 9@0 etres& the island will greatly increase -ussiaOs surrounding econoic territory#
The e$ent is reiniscent of a -ussian disco$ery in 2001 that legally granted -ussia territorial so$ereignty
o$er the *ea of Okhotsk& easuring 00&000 s1uare kiloetres#
The news is significant gi$en the "rcticOs wealth in natural resources and increasing strategic significance
in ters of *ea (anes of ?ounication 4*(o?s5 and fisheries# !hile the resource coposition of the
ac1uired territory is not yet clear& -ussiaOs 2001 disco$ery has illustrated the critical nature of these
e.pansions& gi$en that the *ea of Okhotsk contains 1#1 billion tonnes of oil and 2 trillion cubic etres of
gas reser$es#
The recent disco$ery fors part of an o$erall -ussian strategic re:prioritisation regarding the "rctic#
'oscow has been installing new ilitary bases in the "rctic& as well as increasing its ilitary aerial
presence in the region& often leading to the scrabling of )orwegian& British& ,* and ?anadian fighter >ets
in response# ;ntending to reopen all forer *o$iet infrastructure in the region by 2010& 'oscow has
aintained that it will ha$e established a working ilitary coand structure in the "rctic by 201@#
Other de%elopents
The ,* departent of defence has released a cliate change adaptation roadap& recognising that
cliate change poses a serious and urgent national security risk# One of threats posed by cliate change
has been identified as the increasing traffic around the pre$iously froCen "rctic *ea (anes of
?ounication# The Pentagon clais that the increased traffic re1uires an increased ,* capacity in
onitoring and disaster preparedness in the region#
A significant aount of oil has been found within the &orwegian sector of the Barents *ea# "n
estiated E0 to 910 illion barrels of oil 4or soe 14 to 00 illion standard cubic etres5 ha$e been
disco$ered by (undin Petroleu# The disco$ery is significant gi$en the disappointing test:drilling season in
the surrounding areas# The disco$ery has already coe under fire fro $arious en$ironental )6Os& who
point out that drilling in the pristine "rctic seas is irresponsible and of potential great conse1uence to the
regional biodi$ersity#
The Russian nuclear+powered subarine >ekaterinburg has re+entered ser%ice after being se%erely
daaged in a fire in .eceber $311. 8a$ing undergone ooring trials for the pre$ious four onths& the
subarine is to be gi$en the green light to return to acti$e ser$ice& and will re:establish itself within the
)orthern =leet by 3eceber of this year# The fire that daaged the Lekaterinburg started while it was in
a floating dock at the na$al yard -oslyako$o& north of 'uransk#
Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www.bradburys.co.uk

Open Briefing | 11
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Analysts: ?hris "bbott& 3erek ?rystal& -oger 'arshall& TancrPde =euillade& ?laudia !agner& *ophie Taylor&
Aan 'airhQfer& -obert Tasker and 'atthew ?ouillard#