Nmero 29, 2007 Engenharia Civil UM 5

Revising the AASHTO Curve: Accident Involvement Rates for Trucks and
Speed Differentials on Highway Grades
Ricardo A. de Melo
1,


Federal University of Paraba, Centre of Technology,
Department of Civil Engineering
Joo Pessoa, Paraba, Brasil

J os Reynaldo Setti
2


University of So Paulo, Engineering School of S. Carlos,
Department of Transportation Engineering
So Carlos, So Paulo, Brasil





ABSTRACT

This paper presents as suggestion the adaptation of the AASHTO criteria for the design of
climbing lanes on Brazilian highways, which focus on the development of relations between
accident involvements rates of trucks and speed distribution of vehicles. Two relations are
proposed for Brazil: one for two-lane highways and one for divided multi-lane highways. The
proposed relations were developed using accident data from specific upgrades to ensure that only
accidents involving slow-moving trucks that could be prevented by a climbing lane were taken
into account. The speed distributions of vehicles were surveyed on upgrades, to allow for a more
realistic estimate of the speed differential both for trucks and faster moving vehicles. The
maximum allowable speed reductions for Brazilian trucks on upgrades (20 km/h, for two-lane
highways, and 30 km/h for divided multilane highways) were obtained from the crash
involvement rate associated with the 15 km/h speed differential defined by AASHTO guidelines.
The decision to modify the speed difference in the current geometric design standards, however,
must be supported by additional data to be obtained with further research, which should be based
a larger and more representative database than the one used in this study. It is also imperative to
determine a crash involvement rate which would represent an acceptable compromise between
safety and capital expenditures for the construction of climbing lanes, as the one adopted in this
study was arbitrarily chosen to demonstrate the application of the method.

1
Professor Adjunto

ricardo@ct.ufpb.br
2
Professor Adjunto
6 Engenharia Civil UM Nmero 29, 2007
1. INTRODUCTION

The widespread use of the AASHTO Green Book (AASHTO, 2001) around the world
makes it the most important reference for the design of climbing lanes. As such, guidelines used
outside the U.S. (MTO, 1990; ATU, 1995; Mendonza and Mayoral, 1994; Schulze and Lamm,
2000) are usually derived from AASHTO, including the current design guidelines for federal
highways in Brazil (DNER, 1999). The Brazilian standards for rural highway design are
established by the National Department for Land Transportation Infrastructure (DNIT), through
the Highway Research Institute (IPR), which published the first instructions for climbing lane
design in 1979 (DNER, 1979). These guidelines were replaced in 1999, by the Rural Highway
Design Manual (DNER, 1999), which also includes standards for the design of passing lanes,
passing bays and three-lane highways. However, the climbing lanes criteria are a simply
translation of the AASHTO guidelines, without any adaptation for Brazilian conditions. In
addition, the AASHTO criterion about relation between crash involvement rates for trucks and
speed differentials need revision. The following aspects must be considered, if the AASHTO
climbing lanes criteria are to be adapted to different contexts than the U.S.: (i) speed-distance
curves for typical heavy trucks on upgrades; (ii) maximum speed reduction for trucks on
upgrades; and (iii) upgrade traffic flow rate and upgrade truck flow rate. The aim of this paper
was to create a new relation between crash involvement rates for trucks and speed differentials, to
determinate the maximum speed reduction for trucks on upgrades and to justify climbing lane on
two-lane and on divided multilane rural highways in Brazil.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Excessive speed difference between two vehicles on highway grades can potentially lead
to severe accidents. Several studies have shown that crash involvement rates are related with
vehicles speed distribution. An widely cited study (Solomon, 1964), that compared the estimated
speed of vehicles involved in accidents with the measured speed of control vehicles, using data
from 35 highway segments in 11 states in the U.S. (75% of them on two-lane roads), concluded
that vehicles traveling at approximately 10 km/h faster than the average traffic speed had the
lowest crash involvement rate (Aarts and Schagen, 2006). This study also concluded that vehicles
traveling at speeds much lower or much higher than the average had greater accident involvement
rates, as shown in Figure 1. These results were later confirmed by two other studies (Cirillo,
1968; USDT, 1970). While more recent studies (Aarts and Schagen, 2006; Kloeden et al., 2001)
have criticized the U-shape curve proposed by these older reports (Solomon, 1964; Cirillo, 1968;
USDT, 1970), pointing out that the crash involvement rates for vehicles traveling at speeds below
the average have been overestimated, the literature seems to agree that larger differences in
speed between vehicles are related to a higher crash rate (Aarts and Schagen, 2006).
Climbing lanes, which remove slow moving vehicles from the traffic stream, are an
effective way of increasing the safety of highways with low expenditure. In fact, the AASHTO
guidelines establish that safety considerations may justify the addition of a climbing lane,
regardless of grade and traffic volumes (AASHTO, 2001). Several studies (Harwood et al., 1985;
Hauer and Persaud, 1996; J ain and Taylor, 1991) have shown that climbing lanes can effectively
reduce the number and severity of accidents on upgrades, since slower vehicles are diverted to
the climbing lane, freeing the traffic lane for the faster ones.

Nmero 29, 2007 Engenharia Civil UM 7

Figure 1 - Relationship between crash involvement rate and variation from average speed
(adapted from Solomon, 1964)

According to the metric version of the Green Book (AASHTO, 2001), the construction of
a climbing lane on a two-lane highway is warranted if the following criteria, which reflect
economic considerations, are satisfied:
1. Traffic flow rate on the upgrade exceeds 200 vehicles/hour; and
2. Truck flow rate on the upgrade exceeds 20 trucks/hour; and
3. And one of the following conditions should be satisfied:
a. Trucks with a mass-to-power ratio of 120 kg/kW experience a reduction of 15 km/h
or greater on the upgrade; or
b. The level of service for the upgrade is E or F; or
c. A reduction of two or more levels of service is verified when moving from the
approach segment to the upgrade.
The speed reduction equal to 15 km/h defines the critical length of grade, which it is the
length of a particular rising grade that reduces the speed of trucks about 15 km/h below the
average running speed of the remaining traffic (AASHTO, 2001). The critical length of grade is
related to traffic safety and reflects the maximum speed dispersion that should be desired on an
upgrade, considering that greater dispersion could potentially lead to more accidents.
The Green Book points out that climbing lanes are less common in multilane highways
because the additional lane (or lanes) makes the passing maneuver easier and provides enough
capacity to handle the traffic demands and the typical fraction of low performance trucks. Besides
the increased risk of accidents, the aspects to justify climbing lanes on multilane highways are
(AASHTO, 2001): (i) critical lengths of upgrade, (ii) effects of trucks on the traffic flow on
grades in terms of equivalent passenger-car flow rates; and (iii) service flow rates for the desired
level of service and the next inferior level of service. Economic considerations are also involved
in determining the need for climbing lanes in multilane highways. The Green Book suggests that
climbing lanes are not generally justified on four-lane highways with directional flow rate below
1000 vehicles/(hour.lane), regardless of the percentage of trucks.
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30
VARIATION FROM AVERAGE SPEED, M.P.H.
100,000
50,000


10,000
5,000


1,000
500


100
I
N
V
O
L
V
E
M
E
N
T

R
A
T
E

NIGHT TIME
DAY TIME
8 Engenharia Civil UM Nmero 29, 2007
The 15 km/h maximum speed reduction criterion used to establish the critical length of
grade was adopted based on a study by Glennon (1970), whose objective was to find the speed
reduction that would justify the construction of a climbing lane. However, this study did not use
data from any specific grade or unsafe location to establish the 15 km/h speed reduction criterion.
Speed distributions were obtained from sensors located on level segments and crash involvement
rates for trucks were derived from the average accident rates obtained by Solomon (1964). Some
of the study assumptions can be questioned, such as the one that states that the average speed of
the traffic stream on a rising grade is equal to the average speed observed on level segments
minus 30% of the speed reduction experienced by the design truck on that grade. Another point
that raises concerns is the lack of information about the types of accidents used to calculate the
crash involvement rate, considering that there are various accident types that are not related to
slow moving trucks. Despite the studys shortcomings, it should be stressed that Glennon was the
first to use a systematic and rational approach to establish the maximum allowable speed
reduction that warrants the construction of a climbing lane, which produced the curve shown in
Figure 2. As a conclusion, he suggested that 25 km/h speed reduction should be changed to 15
km/h, a suggestion that was accepted by AASHTO. The speed reduction curve shown in Figure 2
has been repeated in every revision of its design policies, since then. A justification for the
continued use of this curve is that, should this value be wrong, it would be wrong in a
conservative way, increasing safety rather than reducing it.


0 5 10 15 20
SPEED REDUCTION (mph)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
I
N
V
O
L
V
E
M
E
N
T

R
A
T
E


Figure 2 - Crash involvement rate for trucks vs. speed reduction relationship (adapted from
Glennon, 1970)

In Germany (Schulze and Lamm, 2000), the criteria adopted also consider the speed
reduction due to the road bendiness (measured in degrees/km). The speed reduction experienced
by the design truck (130 Kg/KW) on the upgrade is then added to the speed reduction due to
horizontal curves, which is experienced both by cars and trucks. A climbing lane is justified if the
15
th
-percentile speed for trucks is less than half of the 85
th
-percentile speed for cars.
Another example of adaptation of AASHTO guidelines was developed in Alberta,
Canada. The speed reduction criterion uses two performance curves, one for a 180 Kg/KW
vehicle the design truck and another for a 120 Kg/KW vehicle, to be used when buses and

Nmero 29, 2007 Engenharia Civil UM 9
recreation vehicles are 85% or more of the heavy vehicle traffic (ATU, 1995). The minimum
flow rate criterion is established in terms of percent of passing zones, grade magnitude and length
and percent trucks in traffic. This criterion is associated with two other conditions: average heavy
vehicle daily traffic greater than 150 and service level at the peak hour lower than A.
Among the previous studies in Brazil, one (Kabbach, 1992) has attempted for changes in
the AASHTO guidelines to Brazilian conditions. The study suggests a loaded design truck and
flow rates to justify the construction of climbing lanes on upgrades of Brazilian two-lane
highways.

3. METHOD

The purpose of the research reported in this paper was to develop a procedure to adapt the
AASHTO criterion for climbing lanes, within a Brazilian context: (i) speed-distance curves for
typical heavy trucks on upgrades; (ii) maximum speed reduction on upgrades; and (iii) estimation
of traffic flow rates that justify the construction of a climbing lane. This paper was focused on the
second aspect, the development of a relation between accident involvement rates for trucks and
speed difference between heavy vehicles and faster vehicles that could be used to replace the
curve used by AASHTO, shown in Figure 2. The other aspects of the proposed approach are
reported in other papers (Demarchi et al. 2003; Melo and Setti, 2003).
In planning the development of the proposed procedure, some care was taken to avoid the
shortcomings of Glennons approach. The steps in the proposed method comprised: (i) survey of
data on accidents, flow rates and speed on upgrades at sites with greater occurrence of accidents
that involve slow moving and faster moving vehicles; (ii) estimation of average daily traffic and
speed distributions; (iii) estimation of accident involvement rates for trucks; and (iv) estimation
of the relationship between accident involvement rates and speed differential to obtain the
maximum allowable reduction in speed on upgrades, for two-lane and divided multilane
highways. The use of accident data from specific sites ensured that only accidents involving
slow-moving trucks and that could be prevented by a climbing lane were taken into account; the
speed data collected on the upgrades, for trucks and faster moving vehicles, allowed for a more
realistic estimate of the speed distribution.
The adopted approach used relationships between accident involvement rates for trucks
and the speed differential for cars and trucks in the traffic stream on the upgrade, rather than the
difference obtained from estimated speeds of individual vehicles involved in accidents. This
approach was adopted to eliminate a potential bias that could be introduced by incorrect speed
estimates.

3.1. Data collection

The highway network used for the data collection comprised 770 Km of typical roads in
the state of So Paulo, in Southeastern Brazil, divided into 480 km of two-lane roads and 290 km
of divided, multilane highways. Data were obtained from highway operators from the records of
all notified accidents on the network over a period from 34 to 35 months (1017 to 1047 days). All
traffic count data for nearby counting locations were also obtained, as well as classified traffic
data from several toll plazas that exist on or close to the network. Toll plaza traffic data covered a
period of 24 months.
From the accident database, only accidents involving at least one truck were used; among
these, only accidents that are typically related to slow-moving trucks (such as rear-end accidents,
10 Engenharia Civil UM Nmero 29, 2007
collision during passing maneuvers, etc.) were selected. The chosen sites are shown in Tables 1
and 2.
In each of these locations, flow rate and traffic composition data were collected for at
least 4 hours, to complement traffic counts and disaggregate flow rates obtained from the
surrounding toll plazas. Based on these data, estimations of the annual average daily traffic for
both total traffic and truck traffic were made for each site. Traffic sensors installed in each traffic
lane were used to collect data on individual vehicle speed and length; at the same time, traffic
flows were also recorded on video to ensure a correct classification of the vehicles.

3.2. Estimation of Accident Involvement Rates for Trucks

Crash involvement rates for trucks were calculated using the ratio between the number of
trucks involved in accidents and a measure of truck exposure:

8
10
=
d AADT L
NTI
IRT
t
, (1)
with: IRT: crash involvement rate for trucks, in trucks involved in accidents that could
be prevented by a climbing lane by 100 million truck.km;
NTI: number of trucks involved in accidents at this site;
L: length of grade (km);
AADT
t
: estimated annual average daily truck traffic; and
d: period of analysis (days)

Table 1 - Crash involvement rates for trucks on two-lane highways (in 10
8
truck.km of travel)
Site Total accidents Trucks involved AADT Truck AADT Grade length (km) Period of analysis (days) Crash involvement rate
1 6 13 2471 1058 1.54 1017 785
2 7 13 2155 765 2.32 1017 720
3 (upgrade) 4 5 3079 924 1.30 1047 398
3 (downgrade) 2 2 6084 2020 1.30 1047 73
4 2 4 2478 634 1.00 1047 602
5 2 4 3120 640 1.40 1047 426
6 4 5 1467 453 1.10 1047 958

Table 2 - Crash involvement rates for trucks on divided multilane highways (in 10
8
truck.km of
travel)
Site Total accidents Trucks involved AADT Truck AADT Grade length (km) Period of analysis (days) Crash involvement rate
7 18 32 7825 3380 1.88 1017 495
8 1 3 8224 3939 0.50 1017 149
9 19 30 8585 3588 3.10 1017 265
10 4 5 7666 2874 2.14 1017 80
11 1 2 8998 3509 1.92 1017 29
12 3 6 8993 2059 0.70 1047 398
13 3 4 10535 2802 1.00 1047 136
14 9 15 8342 2569 1.70 1047 328
15 5 7 8615 2860 2.50 1047 94


Nmero 29, 2007 Engenharia Civil UM 11
Tables 3 and 4 also show the estimates for crash involvement rate for trucks at each site in
the sample. For site 3, the downgrade rate was also estimated, to provide a data point with little
difference between the speeds of cars and trucks, as shown in Table 3.
Automatic traffic recorders, capable of registering each vehicles length and speed, were
installed on every lane at each site. The sensors were installed on the upgrade at a point where
trucks travel on crawl speed, to allow for a more accurate estimation of the speed difference
between passenger cars and trucks. The data were used to obtain the speed distributions for these
vehicle classes; the mean speed and V
85
and V
15
were found for each site. The 85
th
and 15
th

percentile speeds were used to represent the speeds of the fast-moving and slow-moving vehicles
on the upgrade. The results are summarized in Tables 3 and 4, which also show the speed
differentials found at each site.

4. PROPOSING A RELATION BETWEEN ACCIDENT INVOLVEMENT RATES AND
SPEED FOR BRAZILIAN HIGHWAYS

The estimate of the speed differential depends on the definition of the speeds of faster and
slower vehicles, as Tables 3 and 4 illustrate. To determine what would be the best definition, four
combinations among mean speed (for cars and trucks), V
85
for cars and V
15
for trucks were
plotted against estimates of crash involvement rates for trucks at each site. Using regression
analysis, an exponential function was fit to each data set; the set with the best regression
coefficient (R
2
) was chosen as the representative relationship between speed differential and
crash involvement rates for trucks.

Table 3 - Speed distributions and speed differential estimates for two-lane highway sites
Observed speed distributions (km/h)
Cars Trucks Speed differential (km/h)
Site VCmean VC85 VT15 VTmean VCmean VT15 VCmean VTmean VC85 VT15 VC85 VTmean
1 83.6 100.0 38.6 57.0 45.0 26.6 61.4 43.0
2 70.7 92.2 27.0 48.6 43.8 22.1 65.2 43.6
3 (upgrade) 82.6 97.0 39.0 63.7 43.6 18.9 58.0 33.3
3 (downgrade) 67.2 90.0 48.0 67.2 19.2 0.0 42.0 22.8
4 84.9 100.0 27.0 61.0 57.9 23.9 73.0 39.0
5 89.8 105.3 50.0 70.2 39.8 19.6 55.3 35.1
6 97.0 109.0 58.0 76.5 39.0 20.5 51.0 32.5

Table 4 - Speed distributions and speed differential estimates for divided, multilane highway sites
Observed speed distributions (km/h)
Cars Trucks Speed differential (km/h)
Site VCmean VC85 VT15 VTmean VCmean VT15 VCmean VTmean VC85 VT15 VC85 VTmean
7 84.9 101.0 35.0 55.7 49.9 29.2 66.0 45.3
8 97.8 109.0 66.0 79.2 31.8 18.6 43.0 29.8
9 93.9 108.0 50.0 70.3 43.9 23.6 58.0 37.7
10 92.0 111.0 61.0 77.5 31.0 14.5 50.0 33.5
11 95.0 111.0 45.0 78.4 50.0 16.6 66.0 32.6
12 95.7 113.0 43.0 78.1 52.7 17.5 70.0 34.9
13 86.5 108.0 63.0 83.1 23.5 3.4 45.0 24.9
14 85.3 100.0 39.0 57.7 46.3 27.5 61.0 42.3
15 88.4 106.0 39.0 66.2 49.4 22.2 67.0 39.8

12 Engenharia Civil UM Nmero 29, 2007
The best relationship for two-lane highways was the one that estimates speed differential
using the mean speeds for cars (VC
mean
) and trucks (VT
mean
):

[ ]
77.540 exp 0.0941 ( ) ,
mean mean
IRT VC VT = R
2
=0,8928 (2)
with accident involvement rates given in number of trucks involved in accidents per 10
8
truck.km
and speeds in km/h. Figure 3 illustrates this relationship and shows a comparison with the
AASHTO curve. The proposed curve suggests that a 20 km/h speed reduction would produce the
same crash involvement rate as the 15 km/h AASHTO guidelines.
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Speed differential (km/h)
C
r
a
s
h

i
n
v
o
l
v
e
m
e
n
t

r
a
t
e

(
t
r
u
c
k
s
/
1
0
0

m
i
l
l
i
o
n

t
r
u
c
k
.
k
m
2 lanes (observed)
Multilane (observed)
AASHTO
2 lanes (model)
Multilane (model)

Figure 3 - Relationships between speed differential and crash involvement rates for trucks

For divided multilane highways, the best fit was also obtained using the difference
between the mean speed for cars (VC
mean
) and the mean speed for trucks (VT
mean
). This function,
however, has two segments (R
2
=3.10
-8
; R
2
=0,6777; respectively):

[ ]
113.300, for ( ) 18.6 km/h
10.311 exp 0.1276 ( ) , otherwise,
mean mean
mean mean
VC VT
IRT
VC VT
<
=

, (3)
with crash involvement rates given in number of trucks involved in accidents per 10
8
truck.km
and speeds in km/h. Figure 3 also illustrates this curve and compares it to the proposed curve for
two-lane highways and to the AASHTO curve. It can be noted that accident involvement rates
grow faster for two-lane highways than for divided, multilane highways, which are safer and

Nmero 29, 2007 Engenharia Civil UM 13
allow more freedom for maneuvers within the traffic stream. For same safety level of the 15 km/h
speed reduction proposed by AASHTO (2001), this study suggests 20 km/h and 30 km/h for
speed reduction criterion on upgrades of two-lane and divided multilane Brazilian highways,
respectively, to justify the construction of climbing lanes.

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS

One of the criteria adopted by AASHTO to determine the need for a climbing lane is
based on the speed reduction experienced by trucks on the rising grade. This speed reduction is
used to determine the critical length of grade. Currently, AASHTO adopts a 15 km/h speed
reduction for trucks to define the critical length. In the proposed adaptation AASHTOs
guidelines for climbing lanes in a Brazilian context, the speed reduction was determined using the
relationship between observed crash involvement rates for trucks and the observed difference in
speed between trucks and faster vehicles, for specific upgrades. The suggested maximum speed
reduction allowable (20 km/h, for two-lane highways, and 30 km/h for divided multilane
highways) was obtained using the crash involvement rate associated with the 15 km/h speed
reduction allowed by AASHTO guidelines. The proposed approach avoids some of the problems
associated with Glennons approach, namely, the lack of accident and speed data from climbing
grades.
The decision to modify the speed difference in the current geometric design standards,
however, must be supported by additional data to be obtained with further research, which should
be based a larger and more representative database than the one used in this study. It is also
imperative to determine a crash involvement rate which would represent an acceptable
compromise between safety and capital expenditures for the construction of climbing lanes, as
the one adopted in this study was arbitrarily chosen to demonstrate the application of the method.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors acknowledge the support of Centrovias Sistemas Rodovirios S/A and
Tringulo do Sol Auto-Estradas S/A, who kindly provided a significant portion of the data used
in this study. Advice and suggestions from Professor J ohn Morrall (University of Alberta,
Canada) are also acknowledged. This research was supported partially by grants from CNPq,
FINEP and FIPAI.

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