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MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

August 2014
MAIN INDICATORS: GDP, STATE BUDGET, FOREIGN TRADE, EXCHANGE RATE, INFLATION
Source: NSO, BoM
Real year-on-year GDP growth for the first half of 2014 was
5.3%. Cumulative GDP for the six months to July totalled MNT
6.6 trillion in constant prices (USD 3.2 billion). Cumulative
GDP growth in current prices for the same period was 14.6%.
Real GDP growth for the quarter was primarily driven by
increases in the agriculture sector (which rose by 16.0%) and the
industry and construction sector (up 7.0%).
The cumulative fiscal deficit at August was MNT 153 billion - a
reduction of MNT 7.9 billion from the previous month.
For the first eight months of 2014, government expenditure
totaled MNT 3.95 trillion and revenue MNT 3.8 trillion. The
budget deficit at August was 16.6% higher than it was for the
same period last year. For the month of August, expenditure was
MNT 484.9 billion (1.9% higher) than July, while revenues fell
11.3% to MNT 492.8 billion. Total expenditure on Subsidies
and Transfers, worth 43% of total government expenditure,
increased by 12.4% year-on-year for August. Cost of goods and
services, which constitutes 49% of the total recurrent
expenditure, increased by 10.5% in the same period.
The foreign trade deficit shrank to USD 23 million, owing to
strengthening exports and a decline in the value of imports
in 2014. Cumulative foreign trade turnover in the 8 months to
August was worth USD 7.2 billion, an increase of 3.1% from the
same period last year. Imports accounted for USD 3.60 billion, a
decrease of 15.5% from last year, while exports rose 32.3%
relative to last year, reaching USD 3.58 billion. Mineral exports,
Mongolia's biggest export category have risen by 36.3% since
August last year. Mongolia's three biggest import
categories,vehicle imports, machinery and electrical goods, and
minerals have reduced by 43.4%, 28.4% and 6.8% respectively.
The USDMNT exchange rate depreciated a further one
percent in August, reaching 1862.2.
The average USDMNT in August represents an 11.2%
depreciation since the start of the year, and an 18.6% fall from
the same month last year. The Central bank 's policy rate
remained at 12% in August, following a 1.5 percentange point
increase in July. The tightening monetary policy is an attempt to
stabilize the continued decline of the Mongolian tugrik, as well
as to stifle the high inflation. Total foreign exchange reserves
held by the Central Bank increased to USD 1.86 billion for
August, a 38% increase from previous month and 41.4%
increase since reserves reached their lowest point for 2014 in
June.
The average annual inflation rate dropped to 13.7% .
The estimated average annual inflation rate fell 1.2 percentage
points in the previous month. The inflation rate in August was
0.4%, and 2014 cumulative inflation was 7.7%. Contributions to
the rise in prices included education (16.8 %), clothing and
footwear (1.6%), and housing, water, electricity (due to the 1.5
percent increase in the price of fuel).
8.4
12.8 11.6
7.5
5.3
0
6
12
18
0
2
4
6
2
Q
1
3
3
Q
1
3
4
Q
1
3
1
Q
1
4
2
Q
1
4
Economic growth
GDP, at 2010
constant
prices (left)
GDP growth,
year-on-year,
at constant
prices (right)
(%
(MNT trillion)
3.5
3.6
(0.1)
3.8
4.0
(0.2)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Revenue Expenditure Balance
General Government budget
08'13
08'14
(MNT trillion,
in the first 8 months)
2.7
4.3
(1.6)
3.58 3.60
(0.02)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Export Import Balance
Foreign trade
08'13
08'14
1.7
6.7
9.4
0.4
7.7
13.7
0
4
8
12
16
Monthly YTD YOY
Inflation
08'13
08'14
(1$=..., monthly average)
(Consumer price index growth, nationwide, August)
(USD billion,
in the first 8
1,862.17
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
0
8
'
1
3
0
9
'
1
3
1
0
'
1
3
1
1
'
1
3
1
2
'
1
3
0
1
'
1
4
0
2
'
1
4
0
3
'
1
4
0
4
'
1
4
0
5
'
1
4
0
6
'
1
4
0
7
'
1
4
0
8
'
1
4
Exchange rate (USD/MNT)
- to depreciate

- to appreciate
Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Center www.ecrc.mn
MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
August 2014
FINANCIAL SECTOR: MONEY SUPPLY, DEPOSITS, LOANS
Source: NSO, BoM
Summary
Total deposits fell by 1.2% in the month of August.
Total deposits now total MNT 6.96 trillion. Of this, MNT
deposits, worth MNT 5.45 trillion, represent 78.2% of total, with
foreign currency deposits worth MNT 1.52 trillion. MNT
deposits have increased by 37.2% since August last year, while
foregin currency deposits have increased by 8.5% for the same
period.
The value of Non Performing Loans increased by 3.4% in
the month of August. They now equate to 5.0% of total loans
outstanding.
Total value for loans outstanding increased by 0.9% for the
month, to reach MNT 12.3 trillion. This is an increase of 26.1%
since August last year. NPL rose 0.1 percentage points to total
MNT 620 billion. In nominal terms, this equals their equal-
highest ever value (May 2014) and a 33.4% increase from
August last year.
Monthly highlights
> According to the Ministry of Industry and Agriculture in 2014, the preliminary expected balances of Mongolia's food
production are: 466,600 tons of grain (of which 439,800 tons is wheat), 154,700 tons of potatoes, 100,200 tons of vegetables,
47,800 tons of oilseeds and 41.2 tons of seized forage. In addition, this year domestically-grown potatos are expected to supply
100 percent of national demand. Technical integrity of the harvest is 90%.
> The Northeast Asian Mayor's Conference of North East Asia was held on the 18-19 August. The Forum was the first for
Ulaanbaatar, and focused on four main topics;"Sustainable and Inclusive Cities", "Urban Management and Service Supply-
Technology Innovation Practice", "Economic Development of Northeast Asian Cities" and "Urban Environmental Management
and Green Development"
During the eight months to August 2014, the government's recurrent budget balance was MNT 153 billion, with revenue of
MNT 557.9 billion. The state budget balance was MNT 62.9 billion and the gross balance was a MNT 399.3 billion loss. Total
revenue and grants of MNT 623.4 billion were 14.1% less than the planned target of 76.5% of total expenditure. The causes of
this were corporate income tax, down MNT128.5 billion (27%), taxes on Goods and Services, down MNT 257.2 billion
(17.5%), and the category Other Tax Revenues, down MNT 252.1 billion, (32.9% less).
The foreign trade deficit decreased to USD23.0 million at August, a significant reduction from its value of USD1.5 billion in
August of last year. Over this period, exports have increased by 32.3%, driven by strong growth in Mongolia's traditional export
industries of minerals, textiles and jewellery & stones (36.3%, 17.4% and 9.7% respectively). Meanwhile imports have
decreased by 15.4%, with significant falls in the imported value of transportation vehicles, machinery & electronics and minerals
(-43.4%, -28.4% and -6.8% respectively).
The tugrik's depreciation against the US dollar has continued in August, following ongoing weakness in foreign direct
investment and high inflation. However, foreign inflows are expected to pick up, with the announcement of several major
projects moving forward, a stabilising in the legal environment for mining companies and contractionary monetary policy from
the Central Bank.
Foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank remain low, however they have improved from their record-low value at May
2014 to reach USD 1.86 billion. The initiaitive to increase gold sales to the Central Bank by giving favourable royalty rates to
producers ia also expected to contribute to a rise in reserves for the remainder of 2014.
The Money Supply (M2) increased to MNT 10.14 trillion,
while currrency in circulation also rose.
M2 rose by 0.6% compared to previous month, and 20.5%
relative to the same period last year. Currency in circulation rose
by 2.4% from previous month and 1.4 percent from the same
period last year to reach MNT 880.1 billion. Currency as a share
of M2 reached its highest level since January 2014, worth 8.7%
of total.
8.4 8.5
8.5
8.7
7
8
9
10
11
12
4
6
8
10
05'14 06'14 07'14 08'14
Money supply
M2 (left)
Share of
Currency
issued in
circulation
(right)
(MNT trillion, at the end
of month)
(%)
9
.
1

9
.
8

1
2
.
2

1
2
.
3

5.0
4.8
4.9 5.0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
07'13 08'13 07'14 08'14
Loans
Loans
outstanding
(left)
Share of Non-
performing
loans (right)
(
(MNT trillion, at the
end
5.24 5.37
7.12 6.96
0
2
4
6
8
07'13 08'13 07'14 08'14
Deposits
Foreign
currency
MNT
Total
(MNT trillion, at the
end of month)
Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Center www.ecrc.mn
MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
August 2014
Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Center www.ecrc.mn
MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
August 2014
Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Center www.ecrc.mn

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