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Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology

Faculty of Geology & Petroleum Engineering


Modeling & Simulation Division

Presenter: Dr. Do Quang Khanh
Email: doquangkhanh@yahoo.com
Website: www.hcmut.edu.vn

CURVE FITTING
(REGRESSION)
HCMUT
Least Squares
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HCMUT
Least Squares
Sum of Squares as a measure of how
good the fit is. (Other possible
measures: Sum of Abs Deviations)
Other requirements:
Smoothness,
Least number of parameters,
Extrapolating power, etc.
Two basic cases
Model is based on first principles
Model is just a convenient vehicle
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HCMUT
Least Squares and its Num. Aspects
Two parameters or more to find?
If two parameters
Is it in straight line form?
Linear regression
Or can we transform it into straight line form?
Pseudo-linear regression: Transformation to
straight-line form

More than two parameters (linear):
Generalized least squares
Nonlinear least squares: Gauss-Newton-
Marquardt
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HCMUT
)] ( [ )] ( [ )] ( [
2
3 3
2
2 2
2
1 1
b mx y b mx y b mx y Q Minimize + + + + + =
)] ( [ 2 )] ( [ 2 )] ( [ 2 0
3 3 2 2 1 1
b mx y b mx y b mx y
b
Q
+ + + =

=
Fitting the straight line
(y = mx + b) to three points;
Degrees of freedom: 1
) ; (
) ; (
) ; (
3 3
2 2
1 1
y x
y x
y x
)] ( [ 2 )] ( [ 2 )] ( [ 2 0
3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
b mx y x b mx y x b mx y x
m
Q
+ + + =

=
Select m and b to minimize the Objective Function
Two equations, two unknowns: m and b
Objective function:
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HCMUT
3
) ( ) (
3 2 1 3 2 1
x x x m y y y
b
+ + + +
=
2
3 2 1
2
3
2
2
2
1
3 2 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 2 1 1
) ( ) ( 3
) )( ( ) ( 3
x x x x x x
y y y x x x y x y x y x
m
+ + + +
+ + + + + +
=
3 3 2 2 1 1 3 2 1
2
3
2
2
2
1
) ( ) ( y x y x y x x x x b x x x m + + = + + + + +
3 2 1 3 2 1
3 ) ( y y y b x x x m + + = + + +
Multiply by 3 and by (x
1
+x
2
+x
3
), subtract, get m, then get b
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HCMUT
Formulas for m & b, & programming
HW: Programming using arrays
2
1 1
2
1 1 1
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=


= =
= = =
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i i
x x n
y x y x n
m
n
x m y
b
n
i
i
n
i
i
|
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\
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\
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=

= = 1 1
How to improve the program efficiency for very large values of n?
Think about calculating the same something several times!
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HCMUT
Transformations to Straight Line
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HCMUT
Means to Achieve SL Form
Only two unknown parameters, m and b

Number of points should be at least 3
(Degrees of freedom at least 1)

Needs ingenuity
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HCMUT
Examples
Flow-After-Flow
Test of a Gas Well



Material Balance
of Volumetric Dry-
Gas Reservoir
n
wf
p
p
q q
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
2
max
1
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
+ =
2
max
1 ln ln ln
p
p
n q q
wf
p
i
i
i
i
G
G z
p
z
p
z
p
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
G
G
z
z p
p
p
i
i
1
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HCMUT
Flow-After-Flow Test of a Gas Well:
the Cast
Real World Straight Line World
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
+ =
2
max
1 log log log
p
p
n q q
wf
n
q
p
p
q
wf
max
2
log
1 log
log
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|

m
b
x
y
x m b y + =
n
wf
p
p
q q
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
2
max
1
intercept
slope
Independent
variable
dependent
variable
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HCMUT
Mat. Balance of Vol. Dry-Gas Res.:
The Cast
Real World
Straight Line World
( )
i i
i i
p
Gz p
z p
G
z p
/
/
/
m
b
x
y
p
i
i
i
i
G
G z
p
z
p
z
p
=
x m b y + =
Measured
From measured p; z is a known function of p
Measured
There are other forms
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HCMUT
Programming services
Add Trendline
Options: show equation
Select model
(Does not help you unless you
understand)
For nonlinear least squares: Solver
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HCMUT
Nonlinear least-squares
Minimize sum of squared deviation
(residual)
Use Excels Solver
Example: Hubbard curve (Egypt)
( )


2
) (
:
i i
x f y
function Objective
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HCMUT
Hubbert Model
Hubbert curve:
Derivative of the logistics curve
Production rate (q) vs. time

| |
2
) (
) (
) (
2
2
2
1
:
,
1
: Pr
: var
,
0 / ;
o
o
o
o o
t t a
o
t t a
o
o
o
o
t t a
o
t
t
Q
Q
e N
e aN
Q
dt
dQ
q
time to respect with Q ting Differntia
Q
Q Q
N where
e N
Q
Q
oduction e Cummulativ
dt a
Q
Q
Q
dQ
iables Separating
Q
Q
a
aQ
dt
dQ
Q
a
b Then
dt dQ Q Q When
bQ aQ
dt
dQ

+
= =

=
+
=
=
|
|
.
|

\
|

+ =

=
= =
+ =

Logistics curve
-Cumulative production (Q) Vs. time



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HCMUT
Minimize objective
function
Change variables
HCMUT
HCMUT
Weighting Factors
Account for the importance of each data
point by using a weighting factor, w
i
( )


2
) (
:
i i i
x f y w
function Objective
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18
HCMUT
Straight-line: formation volume factor model 1
Given: p
b
= 2012 psi, bubble point pressure
Data (observed):
P, psi B
o
, resBBL/STB
1500 1.262
1600 1.279
1800 1.298

Determine the parameters of the nonlinear model
describing the B
o
:

What is the best estimate of the Bo at the bubble point?
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ASSIGNMENTS, TEST PROBLEMS
HCMUT
Straight-line: formation volume factor model 2
Consider the following model of Formation Volume Factor,
B
o
as a function of pressure, p: B
o
= ae
b
(pp
b
)
where B
o
is in resBBL/STB, p in psi, and p
b
is the known
bubble point press.(p
b
= 3007 psi). The model paras. a &
b are to be find. The following lab. data are available:
P, psi B
o
, resBBL/STB
500 1.070
1500 1.175
2500 1.301

Determine the Formation Volume Factor at the bubble
point (pb) using the above model.
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ASSIGNMENTS, TEST PROBLEMS
HCMUT
Straight-line: Gas in place
Production and static (field) pressure data for a gas field
is given below. (Craft and Hawkins)
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ASSIGNMENTS, TEST PROBLEMS
HCMUT
Straight-line: Flow-After-Flow Test (IPR)
A frequently used IPR equation:






Find the Absolute Open Flow Potential.
Hint: fill out the following table first.
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ASSIGNMENTS, TEST PROBLEMS
HCMUT
Nonlinear least squares: oil viscosity as a
function of pressure and temperature
Consider the following model of oil viscosity (
o
) for a
certain field as a function of pore pressure, p and layer
temperature T:

The model parameters a, b & c are to be determined by
the method of nonlinear least squares using a general
purpose minimization program (e.g, Solver).
The available data are:


Program to calculate the obj. function to be minimized.
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ASSIGNMENTS, TEST PROBLEMS