Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
1
Strategic staffing delivers the resource needs for operational goals and for breakthrough results in a complex and evolving environment . Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019 Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
2
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Background ........................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Strategic Alignment....................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Integration with Planning Cycle .................................................................................................... 6 3. Development of the Plan ...................................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Considerations .............................................................................................................................. 7 3.1.1 Human Resources Recruitment and Training Capabilities .................................................... 7 3.1.2 Staff to Population Ratios ..................................................................................................... 8 3.1.3 Managing Patrol Performance and Patrol Span of Control .................................................. 9 3.1.4 Identified Needs .................................................................................................................. 10 3.1.5 Growth of the City ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Operating Impacts of Capital North West Campus ................................................................... 11 3.3 Other Operating Impacts of Capital Projects .............................................................................. 12 4. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 12 Appendix 1 - EPS Strategy Map ................................................................................................................... 14 Appendix 2 Edmonton Police Service Resource Types ............................................................................ 15 Appendix 3 Managing Patrol Performance (MPP) Model & Methodology ............................................. 16
Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
3
Executive Summary
This document outlines the Edmonton Police Service staffing needs for the next five years, from 2015 to 2019. Over this timespan, the Edmonton Police Commission is recommending a total increase of 400 positions to the staffing levels of the Edmonton Police Service. If approved by City Council, this would increase the Edmonton Police Services authorized establishment from 2,251 staff members to 2,651. Note that 64 externally funded positions are excluded from the total.
Approximately half of Edmonton Police Service employees are focused on receiving and responding to calls for service from citizens. To determine the service standards for this fundamental function, the Edmonton Police Service uses the Geographic Deployment Model and its associated program, Managing Patrol Performance. Implemented in 2006, the Geographic Deployment Model incorporates four Edmonton Police Commission approved service standards:
1. Seven (7) minute response time to priority one calls, 80% of the time, 2. A 25% allocation for directed activities 1 which focus on strategic community based prevention, intervention and enforcement activities, 3. Fielding two man cars 40% of the time, and 4. Having at least one unit available in each Division to respond to immediate emergency calls.
The Managing Patrol Performance program also incorporates factors such as call volumes and time spent on calls, and was updated in 2014 to include population and demographic indicators. The updated model was then used to forecast the patrol constable requirements through to 2017. Given these factors and the standards to be achieved, the Edmonton Police Service would require 157 additional patrol constables by 2017. Of the identified additional positions, a shortage of 93 exists in 2014.
In addition to the Geographic Deployment Model, the Edmonton Police Service recognizes that an appropriate supervisory span of control is essential to ensure optimum operational efficiency and communication. Research indicates that the optimum standard for supervisory span of control the number of police officers reporting to a supervisor should be set at 1 sergeant for every 9 constables. To achieve this standard for the 157 new positions mentioned above, seventeen (17) additional sergeants would be required.
In order to test the reasonableness of staffing requirements at a high level, the Edmonton Police Service references the annual Police Resources in Canada report from Statistics Canada. In 2013, the national average for the ratio of sworn police officers to 100,000 population ratio was reported as 197. Civilian, or non-sworn members that are employed by police services for support services, professional/technical and administrative duties were reported at a ratio of 1 civilian for every 2.5
1 Directed Activities: Patrol shift work that is dedicated to activities that are either assigned or self-initiated to members that are prevention, intervention or suppression based. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
4
sworn members. Therefore, the national average for the ratio of combined sworn and civilian staff members to 100,000 in population is 276.
In comparison, the Edmonton Police Service currently has a ratio of 186 sworn members per 100,000 population; 11 members below the national average as reported by Statistics Canada. The Edmonton Police Service has a ratio of 256 combined sworn and civilian staff members per 100,000 population; 20 below the national average. To meet the national average, in 2014, the Edmonton Police Service would require 180 more positions. This comparison simply serves to inform the discussion around the optimum staffing levels for the City of Edmonton.
Integral to the consideration of the required growth of the Edmonton Police Service is the Edmonton context or story. The extraordinary physical and population growth of Edmonton was a key consideration as this plan was being prepared. The population has grown by 60,000 over the past two years alone, with projections that the pace of growth will continue to lead Canadas major cities. Looking beyond the numbers to understand the Edmonton situation is equally important. As the central core of a large metropolitan region, the City of Edmonton houses multiple social service agencies, and provides services for the majority of the homeless, mentally ill and disenfranchised citizens in the region. This population consumes a significant amount of police resources every day.
Edmonton comprises 70% of the regions population, but is home to 87% of its low income citizens. It also contains 93% of the regions low income housing, and accounts for 90% of the overall regional police expenditure. Simply put, Edmonton is doing more than its fair share to support and police the greater metro region.
In addition to the significant population growth and Edmontons role as a regional hub, the city itself is evolving into a vibrant, active, bustling metropolis. Nowhere is that more apparent than in downtown Edmonton. The development of downtown Edmonton with new businesses, residences, and attractions will not just replace existing facilities and events; it will take Edmonton to a new level of activity. However, that vibrancy and activity will also generate the need for additional police resources to ensure that downtown remains a safe and comfortable place for Edmontonians and visitors alike. Anytime you have a concentration of attractions and events that bring large numbers of people into a relatively small area it pays to be prepared and to have sufficient resources to keep the peace.
Hence, the staffing plan also addresses the rapidly evolving policing needs of the Citys revitalized downtown. The Edmonton Police Commission has included a request for Council consideration of 40 additional staff in the Edmonton Police Service 2015 proposed Operating Budget. It is important to note that not all these officers would be deployed at any one time or for any one event, but would provide sufficient resources to allow for appropriate ongoing coverage as downtown activity grows.
In addition to the staffing implications from the Geographic Deployment Model, the increases required to maintain an appropriate span of control, and the need to provide sufficient resources for Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
5
a growing City, the decisions of other orders of government can significantly impact the workload of the Edmonton Police Service. For example, the recent R. v. Spencer Supreme Court decision changed the rules regarding access to internet and cell phone subscriber information. Rather than taking fewer than 15 minutes to make a Law Enforcement Request to an internet service provider, the Edmonton Police Service is now spending three to ten hours putting together a Production Order or Search Warrant to obtain that same information. As thousands of these Law Enforcement Requests are made every year, time consumption has increased exponentially. This is just one example of how changes not in our control effect the utilization of Edmonton Police Service resources.
In summary, to meet the policing needs of a growing city, the EPC recommends that Council fund 400 new positions over the next five years. The Edmonton Police Service is confident it can recruit and hire to meet the target of 400 more staff over the five years, through its scheduled recruit class program, its ability to run extra classes as needed, and the recruitment of experienced officers.
In the 2015 Operating Budget, 98 positions will be requested at an annualized cost of $15.4 million. Fourteen (14) of the 98 positions are funded and the remainder will be requesting funding from Council. The table below outlines the positions Edmonton Police Service will be seeking over the next five years.
Table 1: Edmonton Police Commission Recommended Five Year EPS Resource Increase Description Resources Required Cumulative Total Sworn Non-Sworn GDM Patrol Constables 157 GDM Sergeants 17 174 Meet Investigative and Operational Support workload Child Protection, Communications, Canine, etc. 15 189 North West Division and Campus 49 11 249 Operating Impacts of Capital 3 251 New Service Needs: Downtown Edmonton Revitalization 40 291 2016 - Patrol Traffic, training, etc. 37 328 Non-sworn staff increase as required to meet national average 72 400
Total
314
86 400
On an annual basis, this increase is phased in as follows: Table 2: 2015-2019 Edmonton Police Commission Staffing Recommendation by Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Total Requests 98 120 71 59 52 400 Staff to 100,000 population ratio (est.) 259 263 262 260 258 Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
6
1. Introduction The purpose of this plan is to outline the staffing needs required to achieve the goals of the Edmonton Police Service over the next five years (2015-2019). 2. Background 2.1 Strategic Alignment The Edmonton Police Service strategy has been aligned with the City of Edmontons Strategic Plan - The Way Ahead and the Strategic Directions of the Law Enforcement Framework for the Province of Alberta. This information has also been captured and integrated within the EPS Strategic Objective under What We Require (see Appendix 1). 2.2 Integration with Planning Cycle The EPS has integrated a continuous review and improvement exercise in coordination with the operating budget to determine the optimum use of existing resources to address new needs. Critical resource requirements are addressed expediently through these exercises. Results based budgeting, combined with assessments based on risk and value, examines internal operations and allows the EPS to align service needs and community expectations. Each year, over 83% of the EPS annual operating budget is spent on personnel staffing increases and managing growth. The EPS has been conducting these on-going internal resource re-allocation exercises annually ($3.0 million in 2012; $6.7 million in 2013; $4 million in 2014). This practise continues through the course of the year to ensure that resources are aligned with our strategies and priorities. 3. Development of the Plan Our plan was developed utilizing the following information:
1. Areas of the EPS were requested to assess and provide updates to their staffing needs; 2. Principles of the Geographic Deployment Model (GDM) and the related Managing Patrol Performance (MPP) statistical program were used to update the requirements to meet the calls for service and workload in patrol response divisions. Patrol divisions make up approximately half of the total workforce of the EPS; Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
7
3. Span of control 2 for the patrol function was kept at 1 sergeant for every 9 constables. The current level of 1 to 15 has increased steadily from 2006 and requires adjustment to the current standard to provide an appropriate level of supervision and mentorship; 4. Span of control for other areas of the EPS is a standard of 1 supervisor to 10 employees with some exceptions based on the function of the area; and 5. The Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics Police Resources in Canada 2013 report was utilized to determine comparable staff to population ratios for discussion purposes. Resource needs are considered based on many factors. Appendix 2 provides additional information on these factors. The next sections will document the various results of using this information. 3.1 Considerations 3.1.1 Human Resources Recruitment and Training Capabilities Existing training capacity is based on three classes annually of 40 per class (120 yearly) and one experienced officer class each year. The current staffing complement is sufficient to maintain this schedule. Considering the recommended 400 positions for the next five years and assuming 71% of these positions will be sworn, there will be a need to hire and train approximately 284 sworn members over and above projected attrition of 355. To meet the hiring targets, additional classes of new recruits and experienced officers can be added as required. For non-sworn staff, Human Resources would be capable of recruiting additional growth needs within the current complement of staff. Based on the 2013 national average of non-sworn staff to sworn police members of 29%, when sworn police members are added for growth a proportionate number of non-sworn staff should be added as well. Table 3 Capacity of EPS Recruit Training and Expected Attrition 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Planned Classes 3 120 120 120 120 120 600 Additional Classes 4 10 10 10 10 40 Total Classes 130 130 130 130 120 640 Less Attrition 5 (75) (77) (75) (64) (64) (355) Surplus Capacity for Growth 55 53 55 66 56 285
2 Span of Control refers to the number of staff a direct supervisor has under their responsibility. When dealing with highly complex functions and a more junior staff, the need for a more hands on supervisor is increased. 3 Planned Classes do not include additional resources that may be hired as experienced officers. 4 Additional Classes of new recruits or experienced officers 5 Internal memo EPS Recruiting and Attrition of Sworn Members, 2014-2018, Feb. 24, 2014. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
8
3.1.2 Staff to Population Ratios The EPS utilizes information contained in the Police Resources in Canada 2013 report to assist in determining needed resources. This report states that the national average for police (sworn member) to 100,000 population ratio is 197 6 . Civilian, or non-sworn, staff are employed by police services for differentiated staffing, support and administrative duties at a ratio of 1 for every 2.5 sworn members. Rounded, this gives a staffing to 100,000 population ratio of 276.
The 2014 Municipal Census results were announced on August 29, 2014. The population has grown by over 30,000 per year over a two year period and is expected to continue at that rate. In 2014, when the new census figures are factored into this equation, the EPS has a police to staffing ratio of 186; 11 members below the national average. The full staffing to population ratio is 256; 20 below the national average. To meet the national average in 2014 would require 180 more positions immediately. Edmontons population is anticipated to grow by on average 30,000 per year. Strictly based on this increase, an additional 83 positions should be added every year for the foreseeable future 7 . If the recommendation to increase by 239 resources through to 2018 is kept, the EPS will not see any progress in moving its staff to population ratio closer to the national average, but rather will see erosion in the ratio. The overall impact of the change in population increase is illustrated in the table below: Table 4: Effect of Population Growth Forecast Change on Staff to Population Ratio based on 2013 Recommended Increase of 239 and 2014 Municipal Census Year 2014 Population Forecasts Population Increase Population Forecast Staff to Pop 2012 Municipal Census 817,498 263 2014 Municipal Census 877,926 256 2015 30,000 907,926 255 2016 30,000 937,926 254 2017 30,000 967,926 250 2018 30,000 997,926 246
6 Police Resources in Canada 2013, Statistics Canada, released March 27, 2014, p. 3. 7 For use in this analysis, the authorized positions are reduced from 2,315 by externally funded positions totalling 64 to a total of 2,251. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
9
In addition to simple population increases, the composition of the citizens can directly impact the need for policing. In Edmonton there is a heavy concentration of young males between the ages of 18 and 35. Statistics indicate that this population has heavier incidences of interaction with police. As the region continues to grow at a high rate, Edmonton will continue to draw people from across Canada and new immigrants. Most will be law abiding but there will be those looking for opportunities to prey on others. 3.1.3 Managing Patrol Performance and Patrol Span of Control The Managing Patrol Performance (MPP) model is a statistical model designed to determine the staffing requirement to respond to calls for service in the patrol response divisions within the service standards approved by the EPC: 7 minute response to priority 1 (one) calls for service 80% of the time, 25% time available for directed activities 8 , 40% of all units 2 man, and one free car available at all times (See Appendix 3). A complete review of the models methodology was undertaken in in 2013 in conjunction with the determination of the 6 th Patrol Division (Northwest) boundaries. The creation of the new division requires the redistribution of existing resources, based on workload, across the City. Presently, 550 patrol constables work in patrol response roles. The MPP analysis shows that the requirement for the patrol constable function should be immediately increased to 643 constables to meet our current 2014 workload demands (this is an increase of 93 members from the current 550). These resources will be deployed geographically based on call volume, workload distribution and other factors as they are added to EPS strength. Population and demographics are also considered in the forecasts. Forecasting future workloads to 2017, an additional 64 patrol constables are calculated to be needed to meet workload demands. Note that the MPP model does not project more than three years into the future. Patrol Sergeants have supervisory responsibility for the front line constables. The optimum ratio is 1 Sergeant to every 9 Constables. This allows the Patrol Sergeants to effectively lead and manage their staff and provides increased time for reviewing reports, completing performance appraisals, providing mentorship and direction at high risk operational scenes. Based on this standard span of control and the 157 constables forecasted to be required, an additional 17 Patrol Sergeants are necessary. Consideration for non-sworn support staff also needs to be included.
8 Directed Activities: Patrol shift work that is dedicated to activities that are either assigned or self-initiated to members that are either prevention, intervention or suppression based. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
10
3.1.4 Identified Needs Impacting identified needs are the results of external decisions from the courts or other orders of government that download additional work onto the EPS. For example, on June 13, 2014, the Supreme Court of Canada rendered a decision in R. v. Spencer 2014 SCC 43 which dramatically changed the law respecting the sharing of (private) information between third parties (generally businesses for our purposes) and law enforcement. Previous to Spencer, police could make a Law Enforcement Request (LER) of an internet service provider (ISP) seeking the subscriber information for an identified IP address that was involved in a police investigation in this case an internet child pornography investigation. However, in Spencer, the Court ruled that police can only obtain this information (except in urgent circumstances) through prior judicial authorization. This decision now means that where previously a LER would be made, taking only a matter of minutes, police must now obtain the same information via a Production Order / Search Warrant, which regularly take hours to obtain. Further, subsequent to Spencer, almost every telecommunications provider has interpreted Spencer such that they feel they can no longer respond to LERs for calling name and address information (subscriber information) for all cellular phones, instead requiring police to obtain a Production Order / Search Warrant for this information. This will further exacerbate the negative resource implications of the Spencer decision. Decisions such as this impact the identification of resources that the EPS requires on a go- forward basis. This can occur at any time and the EPS must respond in a timely manner. Presently we are working to determine what the resource impact of this will be. 3.1.5 Growth of the City For an organization that is already behind the national average when it comes to police to population measures, the explosive growth of the city provides additional challenges for the EPS. The recently completed census indicated that more than 60,000 new citizens have moved to Edmonton over the past two years, a growth rate that is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Keeping pace with this population growth is essential, as new residents come with the expectation that their calls for assistance will be answered promptly. The only way to do that is by having enough police officers available. The growth of the downtown area is proceeding rapidly, with a number of high profile public facilities either planned or under construction. The Rogers Arena, the Winter Garden Complex, the Royal Museum, and several new condo and office towers will generate thousands of new visitors to the downtown area every day. The growth is undeniably good news for Edmonton, and there is a collective interest to keep the downtown as a good news story for the city. It will be up to the police to make sure the areas are kept safe, secure, and welcoming for visitors and residents alike. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
11
The Arena and Entertainment District will add a concentrated new population living in downtown Edmonton and will add millions of visitors to this area annually. The addition of another major event venue will compound policing service demands. As of July 30, 2014, there are over 30 different development projects underway in Edmonton valued at $4.8 billion dollars. There is also approximately $16.9 Billion in development over the next 20 years within the Central Metropolitan Area. LRT expansion will also add to the workload of the EPS. The City of Edmonton itself has numerous transformational projects that will impact the resourcing needs of the EPS now and into the future. Annexations, Port Alberta, Blatchford Field, the South Campus of the University of Alberta, the Quarters & West Rossdale are but a few examples. Annexation, by example, will result in additional patrol requirements which include patrolling the QE2 Highway that will come within city boundaries. It will also include policing of the International Airport and Highway 19. As the central city in a massive metropolitan area, Edmonton has some unique social service responsibilities that it must carry. Edmonton comprises 70% of the regions population, but is home to 87% of its low income citizens. It also contains 93% of the regions low income housing, and spends 90% of the overall regional spend on policing costs. Simply put, Edmonton is doing more than its fair share to support and police the greater metro region. Because of this, the staffing levels referred to in the GDM model and the Police Resources in Canada report should be considered as minimum as opposed to optimum standards.
The explosion in development happening in Edmonton, current and future requirements from the judicial system and evolving criminal activities will factor into the policing needs of a safe city. 3.2 Operating Impacts of Capital North West Campus Our North West Campus will require increases in resources as the campus becomes operational. This is a growth capital project and the resource needs can also be considered as growth resources. The majority of this increase relates to the new Patrol Division as the EPS will need to staff the additional supervisory ranks, clerical, intelligence and services necessary to support the front line staff. The EPS is moving forward in 2014 to begin to establish the Northwest Division in advance of the facility opening in 2018. The EPS is therefore identifying a three year phased approach to be included into the operating budget beginning with 14 new resources in 2015; 22 in 2016 and the remaining 17 in 2017. This request includes dispatch and communications staff. An additional seven resources, necessary to support the overall campus, including facility staff and supports in detainee management are expected to be added in 2018. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
12
3.3 Other Operating Impacts of Capital Projects The EPS is currently forecasting a need for 3 additional positions as a result of funded capital projects. Table 5: Operating Impacts of Capital Projects - Incremental Totals Operating Impacts of Completed Capital Projects - Personnel Needs Proj # Project Description 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Funded Renewal Projects CM-60-1433 Police IT Systems - Infrastructure 2 2 CM-60-1460 Police IT Systems - Applications 1 1 Total Funded Capital Plan - 1 2 - - 3
If there are new approved capital projects for the 2015-2018 Capital Budget period, additional resources may be required to provide support for new technology or facilities. 4. Conclusion To accommodate growth and support the economic momentum that has built up and is continuing, the organization must respond proactively. New future sworn and non-sworn positions are essential, and are complimented by other efforts in place such as the annual internal resource allocation/re-allocation exercises and numerous efficiency and effectiveness improvement initiatives. Positions for critical, required and projected needs will be requested through the annual operating budget process. To move the EPS forward and meet community expectations as expressed in the most recent Citizen Survey 9 , 400 new positions are required and have been approved by the EPC for consideration by City Council. This will increase the staff to population to 273 per 100,000 population by 2019. This is still below the current national average of 276. Table 6: 2015-2019 Edmonton Police Commission Staffing Recommendation by Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Maintain Service Levels 35 60 52 52 52 262 Northwest Campus 14 22 17 7 60 Operating Impacts of Capital 1 2 3 New Services 49 37 86 Total 98 120 71 59 52 400 Staff to 100,000 population ratio (est.) 259 263 262 260 258
9 Edmonton Police Service 2014 Citizen Survey, May 2014. P. 42. Among other indicators, only 56% of citizens feel that the EPS is doing a good job of prompt response while 37% feel that an average job is being achieved. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
13
The 400 positions are broken down by service type (see Appendix 2 for definitions) in Chart 2 below. These identified needs are primarily for core or core support services. Chart 1 Identified Resource Needs by Service Type
245, 61% 90, 22% 2, 1% 53, 13% 10, 3% Core Services Core Support Services Strategic Services Northwest Division Other Operating Impacts of Capital
Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
14
Appendix 1 - EPS Strategy Map
Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
15
Appendix 2 Edmonton Police Service Resource Types
The following resource types are referenced when the EPS considers its staffing needs: Delivery of Core Services: These are services that directly contribute to the achievement of organizational goals and strategy which include staffing to meet calls for service, dispatch, forensics, intelligence services and serious crime investigations. North West Division Patrol Station: Considered an operating impact of capital, the EPS has begun staffing the 6 th patrol divisional station and have leased a temporary facility until the new station is completed and available to occupy. This decision is in response to critical service demands. The resources for this new division will include the supervisory and civilian resources required to staff the new station. These resources are considered to be core services. Core Support Services: These are services that support/ enable core service providers to achieve organizational goals and strategies which include activities such as securing and storing collected evidence, training of staff, records management, occupational health and safety, paying the staff, paying the bills and ensuring that facility, technology, vehicle and equipment needs are met. Strategic leadership, supervisory and support services: These are services that contribute to the strategic planning cycle, management of organizational initiatives, and executive decision making processes including internal audit and strategic services to support senior leadership : Operating impacts of capital projects: These are resources required to support new major facilities including facility, security and technical staff and for the support of new technology projects. Leading Change Strategies for achieving our vision of being the safest major city in Canada: These are strategies related to Violence Reduction focused on Community Action Teams, Seniors, Youth and Aboriginal citizens of Edmonton among others. Annexation/Transformational City Projects Strategies to Police a Larger City and Denser Geographic Footprint a. As the City proceeds with plans to annex land to the south of Edmonton, there will be resources needed to meet existing policing requirements such as the International Airport, rural calls for service, and the Highway 2 and 19 corridors. The EPS continues to work with the Citys Annexation team and has established an internal working group to determine these impacts accurately. b. Other transformational City developments such as Blatchford Field, West Rossdale, the Quarters and LRT Expansion will potentially impact on policing as the city becomes more densely populated and provides additional amenities. The Downtown Arena Project and the surrounding development will impact policing in the shorter term and require concentrated police time and response. Longer term, the continuing LRT expansion will require more focused police time.
Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
16
Appendix 3 Managing Patrol Performance (MPP) Model & Methodology
This program is designed to determine the number of required units for a specific area and a specific time interval. The algorithm used on this software is based on a queuing model. The model is designed to estimate, for different staffing levels, how often a caller will have to wait for service and how long that wait is likely to be. This queuing model is used to determine the number of units needed in order to meet EPS patrol performance goals of 7 minute response time for priority one calls for service (CFS), 25% proactive time (15 minutes per hour per unit) and an average number of free units of at least 1. The MPP software requires the following patrol workload data for each area and time interval: Number of deployed patrol units Call rate Number of units deployed for each Call for Service Average service time Average administrative time Percent of calls by priority level Area Average travel speed for patrol units responding to calls by priority level Preliminary statistical analyses were conducted to identify and exclude outliers in the data. The number of required units for 2014 to 2017 was estimated using forecasted values for the call rate, average service time, administrative time and travel speed. For each one of these quantities a particular statistical model was developed. Population, age of the neighborhood, day of the week, hour, month and indicator variables for EPS and areas such as LRT stations were considered as predictive factors for the statistical models. Distribution of one person / two person units Police agencies have different policies, regulations and minimum staffing requirements, to address the distribution of one person and two person cars (units) during shifts. The Edmonton Police Service requires 60% one person and 40% two person cars during a 24 hour time period. The MPP software does not include the distribution of one person and two person cars directly in the calculation of the minimum units required. To address this distribution, an additional analysis of the MPP results is required. As mentioned above, MPP is used to obtain the number of units required for each time interval and area of the city. Further analysis is required to determine how those units are distributed between two Person Units and one Person Units. The following is a list of the requirements for such distribution identified by the Edmonton Police Service. 1. The number of two-person units deployed on the first watch (i.e. starting at 21:00 hrs) must be larger than 65% of the total number of units deployed on that watch. 2. The number of two-person units deployed on the third watch (i.e., starting at 17:00 hrs) must be larger than 55% of the total number of units deployed on that watch. Edmonton Police Service Multi Year Staffing Plan 2015-2019
17
3. The number of two-person units deployed in a day must be more than 38% but less than 54% of the total number of units deployed on that day. A linear program was used to determine the optimal distribution of the number of units while meeting the above mentioned restrictions. Staffing Requirements The number of constables needed per squad is calculated based on the optimization routine that determines the number of two Person Units and one Person Units. a) Current staffing The frontline strength of the Edmonton Police Service is 550 constables. b) Predicted Staffing Requirements The following table contains the forecasted number of constables required for the years 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017.
Year Number of Resources 2014 2015 2016 2017 643 676 680 707
Although the table above indicates the forecasted number of resources needed for patrol, not all positions are included in the recommendation. A balance between competing needs has been made.