Honeymoons and the Entrepreneurial Process: A Real Options Perspective
YOUNG ROK CHOI*
School of Business Singapore Management University 469 Bukit Timah Road Singapore 259756 Tel: +65 6822 0728; Fax: +65 6822 0777 e-mail: yrchoi@smu.edu.sg
DEAN A. SHEPHERD College of Business and Administration University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, CO 80309-0419 Tel:(303) 735-5423 e-mail: dean.shepherd@colorado.edu
* Corresponding author
1 Honeymoons and the Entrepreneurial Process: A Real Options Perspective Abstract This article investigates the entrepreneurial process using a decision making under uncertainty lens and offers a conceptual model proposing that entrepreneurs are motivated to devise a honeymoon period to manage the corresponding uncertainty embedded in an entrepreneurial opportunity. We propose that the entrepreneurial process of starting, exiting, and growing a business forms a chain of real options (i.e., honeymoon periods) and thus a path dependent evolution of a new firm. This model complements the currently dominant organizational life cycle perspective by offering an explanation for how entrepreneurs create new wealth (new assets). Theoretical implications for both the entrepreneurship and real options literatures are discussed.
2 INTRODUCTION The entrepreneurial process - - starting, exiting, and growing a business - - is complex and our understanding of it is limited (Aldrich, 1999; Bhid, 2000; Shane & Venkataraman, 2000). To increase our understanding of how entrepreneurs create new wealth scholars must focus more attention on the entrepreneurial process itself. It is commonly recognized that the entrepreneurial process involves uncertainty (Knight, 1921; Rumelt, 1987). Yet previous studies have primarily used a deterministic life cycle perspective which does not sufficiently consider the role of uncertainty and decision making and leaves unanswered questions of how new ventures change and arrive at a specific stage of firm development (Mintzberg & Waters, 1982); what and how internal and external environmental factors influence the decision to transition from one stage to the next (Alchian & Demsetz, 1972; Knight, 1921; Penrose, 1952); and what value is created (Rumelt, 1987). This article investigates the entrepreneurial process using a decision making under uncertainty lens and offers a conceptual model proposing that entrepreneurs are motivated to devise a series of honeymoon periods to manage the uncertainties embedded in an entrepreneurial opportunity (as defined in Kirzner [1997] and Shane & Venkataraman [2000]). This type of organizing is necessary for entrepreneurs to both minimize the downside risk and maximize the upside potential of the new opportunity. This process resembles real options reasoning, a managerial logic dealing with uncertainty (Bowman & Hurry, 1993; Hurry, 1994; McGrath, 1996, 1997, 1999; McGrath & McMillan, 2000; Sanchez, 1993). In the proposed model, we explicitly consider different types of uncertainty and relate them to different types of learning and new asset creation. By adopting real options reasoning, we can gain greater insight into entrepreneurs decisions on firm transition and value creation. Therefore, we view the
3 entrepreneurial process of starting, exiting, and growing a business as a chain of real options (i.e., honeymoon periods), resulting in a path dependent evolution of a new firm (c.f., Bowman & Hurry, 1993; McGrath, 1996). This paper proceeds as follows: First, we review the literatures on the entrepreneurial process and real options reasoning, and propose our view of the entrepreneurial process, in which uncertainty, and its reduction through learning, represent the underlying logic of the process. Second, we articulate the nature of the entrepreneurial opportunity and conceptualize the entrepreneurial process in terms of uncertainty, learning, and new asset creation. We discuss the honeymoon period and its involvement in the entrepreneurial process as well as the effectiveness of different learning methods in resolving a specific types of uncertainty. Drawn on the resource-based view in strategic management, we propose relationships between the resolution of uncertainties and the creation of new assets. Third, in each section, using real options reasoning, we propose how entrepreneurs make firm transition decisions and how returns are achieved. The proposed model sheds a new light on why there are different paths of new venture development. Finally, we discuss theoretical implications for both the entrepreneurship and real options literatures. BACKGROUND AND RESEARCH MODEL Entrepreneurial Process and Organizational Life Cycle The entrepreneurial process has been primarily investigated from a lifecycle perspective. Reynolds and White (1997) use a biological creation analogy to conceptualize the entrepreneurial process as conception, gestation, infancy, and adolescence. Morris (1998) proposes a model of the entrepreneurial process, which includes stages to identify an opportunity, develop the concept, determine the required resources, acquire the necessary
4 resources, implement and manage, and harvest the venture. Van de Ven et al. (1984) views the entrepreneurial process from a product extension perspective, which also follows the stage principle - - gestation, planning, contract services, proprietary product, and multiproduct stage. Refer to the appendix for a further review of the literature on the entrepreneurial process. Since these entrepreneurial process studies adopt a life cycle approach, they are subject to its limitations. 1 First, a life cycle approach attempts to determine what observable, distinguishable organizational forms exist over its evolution. While it is important for entrepreneurs to understand the stages in a new ventures life, another important aspect, which is largely ignored, is to understand how and why some new ventures change and arrive at a specific stage, while others do not. Second, on the assumption that changes in organizations follow predictable stages of development (e.g., Greiner, 1972), scholars show that firms often fail to exhibit the common life cycle progression (Miller & Friesen, 1984; Mintzberg & Waters, 1982). This irregularity in stage progression might be explained by the entrepreneurs decisions. In fact, the role of an actors decisions on firm evolution has largely been ignored (Child, 1997; Penrose, 1952). Third, most previous studies of the entrepreneurial process have focused on firms that have survived, severely restricting our understanding of failed businesses. Since firm failure is a possible outcome of the entrepreneurial process, a model that does not consider failed firms may generate misleading implications. Finally, these previous studies have not sufficiently considered the role of uncertainty and decision making in the entrepreneurial process. For example, Reynolds and White (1997) explain that [O]nce conception has taken place, gestation occurs as the business structure develops, and the operational procedures emerge (6). Like them, most scholars of the entrepreneurial process assume that transition from stage to stage occurs
5 automatically. However, since building organizational routines requires the resolution of internal uncertainty the entrepreneur must make decision under uncertainty and the transition from stage to stage may not be automatic. Since real options directly deal with decision making under uncertainty, we adopt that perspective and further develop it to increase our understanding of the entrepreneurial process. Real Options Reasoning and Entrepreneurial Process Management scholars have adapted the notion of real options from the financial investment fields to build theory in management (strategy, technology, and entrepreneurship), which forms a real options reasoning approach - - a new thought process that is used in devising strategy and searching entrepreneurial opportunities (Bowman & Hurry, 1993; McGrath & MacMillan, 2000; Sanchez, 1993). In real options reasoning, scholars attempt to identify and build option-like managing logics rather than build a valuation model for an investment project (McGrath & MacMillan, 2000; Sanchez, 1993). Real options reasoning studies in management are reviewed in Table 1. .. Insert Table 1 About Here ..
In strategic management, option scholars seem to agree that the firms resources and capabilities act as an option for future opportunities. Shadow options represent the firms resources and capabilities that await managers recognition (Bowman & Hurry, 1993; Hurry, 1994; Sanchez, 1993). The sequential recognition of shadow options and a series of sequential investments form a chain of options throughout the firms life cycle (Bowman & Hurry, 1993).
1 For a review of life cycle stage models, see Hanks et al. (1993).
6 Sanchez (1993) uses the term strategic options to indicate the firms opportunities for both growth and operating flexibility, and suggest that the firms strategy (and its choices of resources and capabilities) be developed so as to optimize these strategic options. Some scholars consider explicit organization strategies as options (Folta, 1998; Hurry, Miller, & Bowman, 1992; McGrath, 1997). In entrepreneurship, McGrath (1996) views the entrepreneurial process as an options chain and explains entrepreneurs opportunities and wealth creation with social capital, asset parsimony, and technical and external uncertainties in the entrepreneurial process. This perspective of viewing entrepreneurial initiatives as a real option suggests that attempts to constrain initiatives related to high variance outcomes result in low wealth creation (McGrath, 1999). While real options reasoning has potential to provide more insight into the entrepreneurial process, there are a number of criticisms that need to be addressed. Critiques on real options reasoning. First, the concept of an option in management is so widely defined that it becomes unclear. Bettis (1994) points out that the popular usage of the term option as an alternative is much closer to what is being discussed in the strategy option literature. Furthermore, by definition (Bowman & Hurry, 1993; Sanchez, 1993), an option is equivalent to a resource or bundle of resources (Bettis, 1994), which indicates that this approach of real options reasoning contributes little to our understanding of a management phenomenon beyond the resource-based view. We argue that little contribution is made because the role of uncertainty has been de-emphasized. In particular, the role of endogenous uncertainty has largely been ignored in current real options studies - - [T]he value of real options lies in the enhanced ability of the firm to cope with exogenous uncertainty (Kulatilaka, 1995: 91). Options to wait and to expand implicitly assume that there is little endogenous uncertainty. For example,
7 constructing an existing restaurant or plant may not involve much technological endogenous uncertainty because decision makers can purchase the necessary knowledge to build the existing restaurant or plant. The entrepreneurial opportunity, however, entails substantial endogenous uncertainty such as developing new technologies and building new venture teams. Second, most of these studies have not explicitly defined the real option being investigated or its underlying asset. To accumulate knowledge on real options reasoning and provide explicit managerial implications, explicit definitions are required. The underlying asset is an asset with the same risks as the project (or asset) that the firm would own if the option were exercised, that is, if the investment were made and the project completed (Teisberg, 1995:35). For example, in the development of an oil field, the underlying asset is an identical, but already developed oil field (Teisberg, 1995). In a technological positioning investment (a real option), the future rent stream is the underlying asset of the real option (McGrath, 1997). While McGrath (1996) defines business formation as a real option and economic return as its underlying asset in the entrepreneurial process, further extension is required to enhance our understanding of the entrepreneurial phenomenon through an options lens - - for example, when an entrepreneur begins an entrepreneurial initiative (a real option), what does the entrepreneur expect or want to obtain from the initiative? Is it the same for all entrepreneurs? Does it change as the entrepreneur proceeds through the entrepreneurial process? We propose a model that acknowledges the abovementioned limitations. An Integrated Model of the Entrepreneurial Process Following Garud, Kumaraswamy, and Nayyars (1998) suggestion that scholars must first understand the context in which a real option occurs, we closely examine the entrepreneurial process and identify its key elements, namely, uncertainty, honeymoon period, learning, and new
8 asset creation.
.. Insert Figure 1About Here ..
Our model of the entrepreneurial process is shown in Figure 1. We argue that the entrepreneur begins the entrepreneurial process with a newly theorized opportunity. As discussed above, entrepreneurs therefore face endogenous and exogenous uncertainties. The level of these uncertainties depends on the nature of both the new opportunity and the founding conditions. The initial psychological attachment and resource commitment of the entrepreneur and founding members form the basis of a honeymoon - - a period where the entrepreneur attempts to reduce uncertainty surrounding the viability of the new opportunity. This organizing process resembles a real option because as the uncertainty embedded in the entrepreneurial opportunity is resolved a new asset is created. The entrepreneur utilizes various learning activities during the honeymoon period to resolve uncertainty. Having created a new asset, the entrepreneur faces the question of whether or not to proceed in building it into a rent generating business. Several internal and external factors, such as the entrepreneurs ability and the condition of the strategic factor market for new assets, will influence the economic return of different option decisions. The entrepreneurs could sell the new asset and exit the entrepreneurial process or reenter with a new or related opportunity. For both these cases the real option is related to a put. On the other hand, if the entrepreneur decides to further build up the new asset by remaining in the entrepreneurial process, he/she exercises a call option. In this case the entrepreneur faces another type of
9 uncertainty that can be resolved through learning which leads to the creation of a different asset. 2
This entrepreneurial process forms a path-dependent chain of real options (c.f., Bowman & Hurry, 1993; McGrath, 1996). To make our real options reasoning explicit, a direct analogy of the honeymoon to an option contract is presented in the Table 2. Specifically, the greater the volatility of the underlying asset, the greater the option value. We further argue that the learning ability of the entrepreneur influences option value by increasing or decreasing the chance that the entrepreneur can obtain the underlying assets. We now elaborate on each element of the model and offer a series of propositions.
Insert Table 2 About Here
ENTREPRENEURIAL OPPORTUNTY AND UNCERTAINTY Entrepreneurial Opportunity Entrepreneurial opportunities are those opportunities to bring into existence future goods and services rather than producing existing goods and services (Kirzner, 1997; Shane & Venkataraman, 2000). The sources of entrepreneurial opportunities include technological change (Schumpeter, 1934), inefficiencies within existing market, the emergence of significant changes in social, political, demographic, and economic forces, and inventions and discoveries (Drucker, 1985). These entrepreneurial opportunities exist, because different members of society have different beliefs about the value of resources (Barney, 1986; Casson, 1982; Kirzner, 1997; Shane & Venkataraman, 2000). Moreover, even in the case of holding the same beliefs, they may differ in preferences on the way to obtain value from these opportunities. Entrepreneurs are individuals
2 We discuss the detail nature of this process (i.e., sequential vs. simultaneous) in the discussion section.
10 that pursue entrepreneurial rents (Rumelt, 1987) - - entrepreneurial rents are defined as the difference between a ventures ex post value (or payment stream) and the ex ante cost (or value) of the resources combined to form the venture(Rumelt, 1987: 143). Therefore, we can assert that entrepreneurial opportunities are those cause-and-effect relationships believed to lead to value creation based on the entrepreneurs theorization on the unproven (c.f., Block & MacMillan, 1985; McGrath, 1999). Theorizing on these future cause-and-effect relationships involves inevitable assumptions that lead to various types of uncertainties. Dimensions of Uncertainty in the Entrepreneurial Process Uncertainty, according to Knight (1921), refers to situations where an individual is unable to calculate probabilities on the basis of an objective classification of outcomes. More generally, uncertainty is defined as an individuals perceived inability to predict something accurately (Milliken, 1987: 136). Even though entrepreneurs might be optimistic about the future, they are uncertain about something, for example, sufficient demand, successful development of proprietary technology, harmony with other founders, and an advantageous position in the industry (Christensen, Suarez, & Utterback, 1998; Tegarden, Hatfield, & Echols, 1999; Wernerfelt & Karnani, 1987). Uncertainties are classified as either endogenous or exogenous (Dixit & Pindyck, 1994; Folta, 1998; McGrath, 1997; Williamson, 1985). In this study, we further classify uncertainties into technological endogenous, organizational endogenous, quasi exogenous, and pure exogenous uncertainties, as shown in Table 3. .. Insert Table 3 About Here .. Endogenous uncertainty is largely affected by firm actions (Folta, 1998) and can be represented by technological and organizational uncertainty. Technological endogenous
11 uncertainty is related to the realization of the theorized technological promises. Dixit and Pindyck (1994) referred to technological uncertainty to indicate the likely costs and probabilities of accomplishing technical success. Organizational endogenous uncertainty is related to the realization of organizational routines and a sustainable venture team. As Stinchcombe (1965) mentioned, the likelihood of shirking and the need for metering would be particularly immense during the early periods of the entrepreneurial process due to unfamiliar roles and new work relationships. The new roles and new work relationships indicate that new ventures lack accountability of organizational actions, which refers to the firms ability to document how resources have been used and to reconstruct the sequences of organizational decisions, rules, and actions that produced particular outcomes (Hannan & Carroll, 1995; Hannan & Freeman, 1984). Moreover, scholars proposing the theory of the firm recognize organizational endogenous uncertainty as a fundamental issue that firms must face and deal with. Alchian and Demsetz (1972) view the firm as a team production system with two critical organizing tasks - - metering input productivity and metering rewards - - which are designed to reduce an incentive to shirk. Transaction cost economics recognizes that uncertainty may arise from endogenous sources such as adverse selection, moral hazard, or performance ambiguity (Williamson, 1985). Exogenous uncertainty is largely unaffected by firm actions and is predominantly resolved over time (Folta, 1998: 1011). Exogenous uncertainty - - such as uncertainties in input cost (Dixit & Pindyck, 1994), technological trajectory (Folta, 1998; Wernerfelt & Karnani, 1987), demand (Wernerfelt & Karnani, 1987), industry infrastructure and legislation, and competitive environments - - do not appear to be identical in the means by which they are resolved. Thus we distinguish two types of exogenous uncertainty. Quasi exogenous uncertainty can be resolved by the ventures external collective and/or relational activities and its
12 investments i.e., it is largely not affected by the new ventures investments in internal areas, but can be resolved by either external joint activities among firms, communities, and industries over time, or the firms special investment in external areas (McGrath, 1997). Pure exogenous uncertainty is primarily resolved by the passage of time (c.f., Achrol, Reve, & Stern, 1983). In most cases, the entrepreneur or collective activities cannot influence the entire social, economic, or technological trends. Moreover, there exist some unexpected changes and events in the environment, which are not included in the expected future consideration sets of entrepreneurs. These pure exogenous uncertainties are almost impossible to control or influence ex ante (e.g., Folta, 1998). We argue that the entrepreneurial process involves honeymoon periods that are used to resolve each of the above uncertainties. We now detail the honeymoon phenomenon and the entrepreneurs real options reasoning. HONEYMOON PERIOD FOR UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION According to Merriam-Webster Collegiate Dictionary, the term honeymoon was coined from the idea that the first month of marriage is the sweetest. A secondary meaning of honeymoon is a period of unusual harmony especially following the establishment of a new relationship. The honeymoon has been observed in the dynamics of various relational formations at several levels of analysis, e.g., individual-individual as in marriage (Diekmann & Mitter, 1984; Ferriss, 1970), individual-organization as in job match (March & March, 1978), inter- organizations as in auditor-client (Levinthal & Fichman, 1988), or in organization building such as new firm formations and dissolutions (Brderl & Schssler, 1990; Fichman & Levinthal, 1991). Levinthal and Fichman (1988) capture reasons for the honeymoon observed in various
13 contexts: [A]ll relationships start with some initial capital of favorable prior beliefs, trust, goodwill, financial resources, or psychological commitment. The fact that a relationship has been initiated usually indicates that the participants must have some optimism about its viability (366). Recognizing that both the honeymoon and the entrepreneurial process involve beliefs, theorization, and uncertainty, we propose that the honeymoon is an essential element of the entrepreneurial process. Entrepreneurs make their initial commitment to the new opportunitys value creation based on idiosyncratic beliefs and assumptions. These beliefs and assumptions will be tested during the entrepreneurial process. We propose that entrepreneurs and participants unique conjectures and optimism about the viability of entrepreneurial opportunities (Shane & Venkataraman, 2000) forms the basis of a honeymoon in the entrepreneurial process. Though useful, the honeymoon literature in organization fields appear to ignore a fundamental reason for the existence of the honeymoon -- the presence of uncertainty in the process of relational formations. In client-auditor relationships, for instance, client companies are uncertain about a new auditors judgment quality on important issues influencing firm values (such as the going-concern opinion) (Louwers, 1998). Employers are uncertain about applicants productivity and employment match (Simon & Warner, 1992). Potential employees are also uncertain about the match between their career development and the employers human resource management policy. Entrepreneurs and stakeholders are uncertain about the viability of new opportunities (Brderl & Schssler, 1990). If little uncertainty exists, there is no reason to make a confined investment or commitment in the relationship formation and no reason to explore its viability. As a result, we define the honeymoon in the entrepreneurial process as the time the new venture is permitted by the participants (entrepreneur and stakeholders) to resolve uncertainty in the
14 theorized opportunity (thus creating new assets) or until the participants resources and commitments are depleted. Therefore, the presence of uncertainty is necessary to warrant a honeymoon. As defined in the previous section, four types of uncertainty embedded in the new opportunity will lead the entrepreneur to form a honeymoon that corresponds to a type of uncertainty. 3
From the option contract perspective, this relationship indicates that the entrepreneur can create multiple options in the entrepreneurial process and as a result s/he can minimize the downside risk while maintaining the upside potential. Thus, Proposition 1a: In the entrepreneurial process there exist multiple honeymoons (a chain of options), each corresponding to a type of uncertainty (technological endogenous, organizational endogenous, quasi exogenous, and pure exogenous), until a rent generating business has been created or until resources have been depleted. Proposition 1b: Those entrepreneurs that manage the entrepreneurial process through its multiple honeymoons (a chain of options or sub-entrepreneurial processes) are better able to reduce possible losses than those who do not. An entrepreneur may face less uncertainty in one dimension than in other dimensions. For example, the new venture team that has extensive prior joint work experience (thus high trustworthiness and shared value among team members) may face a lower organizational endogenous uncertainty and thus, the team may need a shorter honeymoon period to reduce that uncertainty. We argue that the length of the honeymoon permitted for the resolution of a particular type of uncertainty is positively related to the level of that uncertainty embedded in the
3 The presence of the four uncertainties depends on the nature of new opportunities.
15 new opportunity. From the option contract perspective, this relationship indicates that the entrepreneur and stakeholders should expect a longer honeymoon period (longer expiration date) and a higher option price (in the form of opportunity cost), for an opportunity with a higher uncertainty. Thus, Proposition 1c: The higher the uncertainty of a particular type, the longer the corresponding honeymoon period (option expiration) and thus the higher the opportunity cost (option price) for the corresponding new asset. While the new venture invests its resources in the development of technical functions of the new opportunity, they can also engage in other activities to the other uncertainties. For example, as a necessary step for product development the entrepreneur can work with lead customers, suppliers, and distributors. This will reduce some portion of quasi exogenous uncertainty. Moreover, organizational endogenous uncertainty (routines and team building) can also be reduced while they repeat product/technology development activities. Pure exogenous uncertainty reduces as time passes. That is, there might be an overlap between the honeymoons in the entrepreneurial process, as shown in Figure 1. 4 Due to the overlap nature of the honeymoons for different uncertainties, the total length of the honeymoons (total options price) will be smaller than the sum of each honeymoon (sum of each option price). Thus, Proposition 1d: The entrepreneur who goes through the whole entrepreneurial process using a chain of real options (honeymoons) will pay less option price than other entrepreneurs who repeat the same type of option (honeymoon) for different opportunities.
16 NEW ASSETS CREATION FROM UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION Why is it so important that the entrepreneur resolve the uncertainties surrounding a new opportunity and its potential returns? Institutional theory and population ecology suggest that stakeholders favor certain and reliable organizational results (e.g., Hannan & Freeman, 1984). From the entrepreneurship perspective, we suggest that in resolving corresponding uncertainties embedded in the entrepreneurial opportunity the entrepreneur generates new assets - - assets that had not previously existed. To understand the nature of the new asset, we first briefly review literature related to assets and resources in strategic management, and then we articulate the types of new assets that can be created and their strategic implications. Resources, Factors and Assets in Strategic Management Resource-based view explains above normal economic performance of the firm through the notions of firm resources - - resources, strategic factors, or strategic assets. These notions are interlaced. In general, resources refer to a source of supply or support or an available means (Merriam-Webster Dictionary). Similarly, Amit and Schoemaker (1993) defined resources as stocks of available factors that are owned or controlled by the firm and these resources include know-how that can be traded (e.g., patents and license), financial or physical assets (e.g., property, plant and equipment), and human capital. Resource-based view scholars are interested in particular types of resources that are insisted to bring firms above normal economic performance - - resources that are rare (not widely held), valuable (contribute to firm efficiency and effectiveness), not substitutable (other resources cannot fulfill the same function), not
4 The possible patterns of the honeymoon seem to largely rely on both the nature of the new opportunity and founding conditions. We focus here on the entrepreneurial opportunities as such defined in Venkataramans (1997) strong premise of entrepreneurship, and independent start-ups.
17 imitable (not easily replicated by competitors), and/or not transferable (cannot be purchased in resource markets) (Barney, 1991; Priem & Butler, 2001). Such resources are equivalent to the notion of strategic assets, since strategic assets are defined as the set of firm-specific resources and capabilities that are difficult to trade and imitate, scarce, appropriable and specialized (Amit & Schoemaker, 1993; Dierickx & Cool, 1989). Unlike strategic assets, strategic factors in this study can be defined as resources that rare, valuable, but tradable and not bundled, since these factors are necessary resources to implement strategy and one can purchase them in the strategic factor market (Barney, 1986). Dierickx and Cool (1989) argue that [F]irms may of course acquire imperfect substitutes for the desired strategic input factor(s) and adapt them, at a cost to the specific use it intends. General labor is rented in the market; firm-specific skills, knowledge and values are accumulated through on the job learning and training (1505). That is, valuable labor forces can be considered as a strategic factor, while the same labor force bundled with other human resources and embodied in the firm can be considered as a strategic asset. We now discuss each type of new asset created through uncertainty reduction in the entrepreneurial process, in which we characterizes each asset with properties of resources. 5
Creating Strategic Technological Assets We argue that as technological endogenous uncertainty around a new opportunity is reduced during the honeymoon period, entrepreneurs create new assets. Since the entrepreneur creates the new asset by reducing technological endogenous uncertainty of the new opportunity, the new asset is rare. Moreover, it is valuable, since it makes the new opportunity viable
18 (through increased efficiency and/or effectiveness) by providing functions for the new opportunity. The new technological asset may lack some necessary characteristics of a strategic asset, for instance, they may be not bundled with other firm resources so that they are not firm- specific and are subject to imitation. That is, the new asset likely lacks asset mass efficiencies (e.g., the advantage of network externalities), and interconnectedness of asset stocks (e.g., necessity of complementary assets and infrastructure) (Dierickx & Cool, 1989). Furthermore, in the early development of the new opportunity, industry strategic factors (i.e., industry key success factors) have not likely been defined yet. The new technological asset arising from the reduction in technological endogenous uncertainty is insufficient to produce above normal economic profits in the future, if there exist other types of uncertainty. It requires further development with complementary assets and the reduction of exogenous uncertainty. For example, a new-to-the-industry Web system that incorporates both 3D display of fashion items and online supply-distribution procurements represents a new technological asset but uncertainties in market demand and dominant design competition hamper an accurate assessment of the new assets value. The entrepreneur may be able to build on the asset with other resources purchased in the strategic factor market or accumulated internally to create a new strategic asset (Amit & Schoemaker, 1993; Dierickx & Cool, 1989). The new strategic asset could then be sold in the technology factor market. Proposition 2a: The new technological asset created from the reduction of technological endogenous uncertainty is a rare and valuable resource; it is either
5 Even though we use the term asset for the outcome of uncertainty reduction in this article, it does not mean the notion of strategic asset defined in Amit and Schoemaker (1993). Instead, we characterize the new assets with the properties of resources.
19 sellable in the technology factor market or further bundled with other resources moving closer toward a rent generating new business. Proposition 2b: The greater the volatility of the value of the new technological asset in the technology factor market, the higher the honeymoon (real option) value for reducing technological endogenous uncertainty. Creating Strategic Organizational Assets Resolving organizational endogenous uncertainty (e.g., shirking, metering input productivity and rewards, and adverse selection) enhances confidence between the entrepreneur and key founding members creating a set of cohesive human assets. These cohesive human assets will share values, knowledge, and skills about business operations and strategy. They know how to get along, communicate with each other, and have knowledge about each others idiosyncrasies and strengths (Eisenhardt & Schoonhoven, 1990). They are a cohesive team. More cohesive teams have greater commitment to the organization (e.g., Mathieu & Zajac, 1990; Podsakoff, MacKenzie, & Bommer, 1996), which may help sustain an extended honeymoon. The honeymoon provides a safe period for the new venture to create routines. Several scholars have proposed that the reliability of an organization depends on the extent to which the organization builds routines, as the routines represent the memorized (institutionalized) knowledge of the organization (Nelson & Winter, 1982). Based on this relationship, scholars have also proposed that the shared knowledge embedded within an organizations systems represent the core capabilities of highly experienced teams and highly-reliable organizations (e.g., Araujo, 1998; Nahapiet & Ghoshal, 1998). 6 Thus, routines increase accountability and
6 Once these routines are created they are not necessarily permanent -- changes that render an organization's accumulated skills, roles, and routines obsolete, or upset its exchange relationships with the environment, can
20 trust among the stakeholders of the new venture. The new organizational asset is rare, since forming an accountable new venture and building trust among team members are difficult (c.f., Stinchcombe, 1965). The asset is also valuable, since it is related to efficient and effective collective actions (Araujo, 1998). The asset is difficult to trade and difficult for competitors to imitate because it is deeply rooted in the new ventures history. Proposition 2c: The new organizational asset created from the reduction of organizational endogenous uncertainty is rare, valuable, and a substantially bundled resource; it is positively related to a cohesive entrepreneurial team and an accountable new venture. Proposition 2d: The greater the volatility of the value of the cohesive entrepreneurial team and accountable new venture in the IPO (Initial Public Offering) or trade sale market, the higher the honeymoon (real option) value for reducing organizational endogenous uncertainty. Creating Strategic Complementary Assets In the presence of quasi exogenous uncertainty, it is difficult to accurately assess the ability of strategic technological assets to generate above normal economic profits in the future The strategic technology assets, created from the reduction of technological endogenous uncertainty, are rare and valuable resources. However, they are by themselves not sufficient to prove the new opportunitys viability in the market and thus unable to generate continuous above normal profits. For example, only with the strategic technological assets, the entrepreneur will find it difficult to eliminate market skepticism regarding the newness of the opportunity; the
reduce its reliability of performance thereby increasing mortality risk (Amburgey, Kelly, & Barnett, 1993; Hannan & Freeman, 1984).
21 strategic assets may be contradictory to current technological standards and/or legal regulations. The new technological assets may need infrastructure or complementary assets to convey its value to customers, which externally legitimizes the new technological assets. To do so, the entrepreneur may make investments in shifting boundary conditions such as regulations and environmental constraints, as argued by McGrath (1997) and engage in co- evolutionary activities (e.g., Aldrich, 1999; Garud, Kumaraswamy, & Nayyar, 1998) - - joint activities of new firms, communities, and related industries can increase the legitimacy of new activities and facilitate infrastructure developments (e.g., Lewin & Volberda, 1999; Van de Ven & Grazman, 1999). Uncertainty surrounding potential suppliers and users support, determines, in part, the value of the new technological assets. The strategic complementary assets provide the new venture a value chain through which economic profits can accrue. Thus, Proposition 2e: The new complementary asset created from the reduction of quasi exogenous uncertainty is rare, valuable, and a substantially bundled resource; it completes the value chain for the new opportunity. Proposition 2f: The greater the volatility of the value of the complementary assets in the value chain, the higher the honeymoon (real option) value for reducing quasi exogenous uncertainty. UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION THROUGH LEARNING Our next investigation is on both how the new venture reduces the uncertainty and how real options reasoning is involved in the uncertainty reduction method. Entrepreneurs decrease uncertainty through learning (Huber, 1991; Miller, 1996). Miller (1996) distinguishes six modes of learning including analytical, synthetic, experimental, interactive, structural, and instrumental learning. Miller (1996) argues that these modes produce disparate outcomes and must occur in
22 distinctive contexts. Since structural and instrumental learning are based on established routines and organizational ritual, these types of learning seem less applicable to the entrepreneurial process. Analytical learning refers to learning through a systematic rational analysis. Synthetic learning refers to a less systematic but more emergent, intuitive and holistic model of learning, compared to analytical learning. Experimental learning refers to an intendedly rational learning through performing small experiments and monitoring the results (Quinn, 1980). Interactive learning refers to learning by bargaining and trading with internal members and with external stakeholders (Cohen, March, & Olsen, 1972). Technological Endogenous Uncertainty and Experimental Learning Entrepreneurs will benefit from a reduction in technological uncertainty because in doing so they can create new assets that will be the basis of quality products or services and maybe for negotiation with investors. This reduction in technological endogenous uncertainty may best be achieved by learning, investment, and doing (Folta, 1998; McGrath, 1997). Since reducing technological endogenous uncertainty requires analytical activities, both analytical and experimental types of learning have potential to reduce this uncertainty. Synthetic and interactive learning rely on subtle emergent and normative values (Miller, 1996), which are inappropriate for reducing technological endogenous uncertainty. Analytical learning is best conceptualized as a scientific and engineering type of learning, which will create technological knowledge needed to reduce functional uncertainties embedded in the new products or services. Although analytical learning is well suited to creating knowledge, entrepreneurs may need to do experimental learning activities in order to materialize working products or services, since new ventures are bounded by intellectual, temporal, and economic constraints (Grandori, 1984; Miller, 1996). Learning scholars suggest that
23 experimental learning overcomes such organizational constraints (March & Simon, 1958; Quinn, 1980) and increases the accuracy of feedback about cause-effect relationships between organizational actions and outcomes (c.f., Warner, 1984; Wildavsky, 1972). For example, technological endogenous uncertainty can be reduced, and reliability of products and services enhanced, when entrepreneurs change and modify their original ideas in responding to new information about its potential viability. This experimental learning by individuals in the entrepreneurial process appears more important than analytical learning, since the technological validity of the unproven cause-and-effect relationships will be defined largely by the market. Thus, Proposition 3a: Experimental learning is more effective than other forms of learning in reducing technological endogenous uncertainty. Thus, the more experimental learning during the entrepreneurial process, the greater the reduction in technological endogenous uncertainty. Organizational Endogenous Uncertainty and Internal Interactive Learning Creating a new business entity is accomplished by multiple actors. To reduce organizational endogenous uncertainty in this context, team members should be linked through communication and an authority structure. They also learn from other members of the team if they have been socialized to organizational beliefs (mutual learning) (March, 1991). By conducting joint venture creation activities and learning, team members create routines (Cohen & Bacdayan, 1994). These routines encourage the continuation of joint activities, which increases accountability and trust among the stakeholders of the new venture. We argue that building organizational routines relies on interactive learning. Miller (1996) states that [L]ike experimentation, interactive learning involves learning-by-doing,
24 which occurs simultaneously in many parts of an organization (493). Since it is difficult to systematically experiment with organizational practices and confidence building activities, experimental learning is rather limited. Instead, interactive learning that happens in a more emergent and implicit way by bargaining and trading with each other (Cohen, March, & Olson, 1972) will be more effective in informal confidence building. Thus, Proposition 3b: Interactive learning is more effective than other forms of learning for reducing organizational endogenous uncertainty. Thus, the more the interactive learning among team members during the entrepreneurial process, the greater the reduction in organizational endogenous uncertainty. Quasi Exogenous Uncertainty and External Interactive Learning While experimentation may generate information on exogenous uncertainty (for example, a pilot market test may reveal an aspect of uncertain customer preferences), it does not reduce it. Entrepreneurs appear to reduce quasi exogenous uncertainty through investments in shifting boundary conditions (e.g., McGrath, 1997) and co-evolutionary activities (e.g., Aldrich, 1999; Lewin & Volberda, 1999; Van de Ven & Grazman, 1999). Since reducing quasi exogenous uncertainty involves mostly collective (at least with one external agent)
or political activities 7 , entrepreneurs should be able to perform collective and interactive learning with stakeholders or other firms in the value chain of the new opportunity (see Miller, 1996). For example, Rosenkopf and Nerkar (1999) suggest that in a product hierarchy -- consisting of component-specific communities, firms manufacturing the product, and system-level community -- simultaneous processes of variation, selection and retention operate and interact at each of these three levels.
7 In political science, collective action refers to the collaboration and cooperation of two or more individuals or firms in the policy process e.g., a trade association of firms lobbying political decision makers (Olson, 1965).
25 As the entrepreneur attracts and negotiates with component suppliers and system users, this uncertainty decreases. In this kind of coevolutionary process, it is essential for a participating new venture to build more realistic collaborations through negotiation and exchange. Thus, Proposition 3c: Interactive learning with outside stakeholders is more effective than other forms of learning for reducing quasi exogenous uncertainty. Thus, the more the interactive learning with outside stakeholders during the entrepreneurial process, the greater the reduction of quasi exogenous uncertainty. Pure Exogenous Uncertainty and Environmental Scanning Strictly speaking, the only way to resolve pure exogenous uncertainty is to wait and gather information on environmental changes. Even though entrepreneurs are unable to directly influence the reduction of pure exogenous uncertainty, they may adopt environmental scanning activities to collect relevant information. The ability to engage in wide-ranging environmental scanning produces information on pure exogenous events and contributes to learning through interpretation (Daft & Weick, 1984; Huber, 1991), and better decisions (c.f., Daft, Sormunen, & Parks, 1988). Proposition 3d: Environmental scanning is more effective than other forms of learning for collecting information on pure exogenous uncertainty. Thus, the more the environmental scanning during the entrepreneurial process, the greater the information on pure exogenous events. Learning Ability and Option Exercise Decisions According to our model, shown in Figure 1, the entrepreneur and founding team may make three transitional option exercise decisions before they have established a rent generating business. One of the purposes of this article is to explain different evolution paths of the new
26 venture through an options lens. Since the entrepreneurial process can be depicted as a process of creating new assets, we draw on Barney (1986) who argues that in the investigation of potential sources of above normal economic profits the tradeability or nontradeability of assets is a nonissue - - the real issue is comparing the total costs of developing (or purchasing) assets with the value they create. How does the entrepreneur make his/her assessment of the costs and benefits of an asset? Is it luck, belief, superior expectation or private information? Hayek (1945) asserts that asymmetrical distribution of knowledge among people leads them to different economic behaviors. Following Hayeks (1945) assertion, we suggest that the new ventures learning ability influences their option exercise decisions and thus different evolution paths of the new venture. This is because in the presence of an ability to learn and reduce endogenous (and/or quasi exogenous) uncertainty will influence the likelihood of obtaining the underlying asset. In fact, we believe that entrepreneurs decisions are influenced by the economic valuation of their new ventures learning abilities in a particular option exercise decision. Specifically, after a new venture has created new technological assets, there will likely be tension among new venture team members over problems association with metering and institutionalizing rules. Thus, the most urgent task of the new venture is to engage in building both a cohesive entrepreneurial team and organizational routines. If the new venture possesses greater experimental learning ability in reducing technological uncertainty than in internal interactive learning ability, more value will be produced by repeating the first sub- entrepreneurial process than by moving forward to the incompetent learning area. By the same logic, if a new venture lacks competence in external interactive learning, there is a lower expectation in their ability to create the new complementary assets that are necessary for the completion of the value chain for the new opportunity. In such a situation, a put option is more
27 economically reasonable for the new venture. In this aspect, the composition of the new venture team seems to influence its interactive learning ability. Thus, Proposition 3e: The learning ability of the new venture will positively influence the likelihood of the transition to the next sub-entrepreneurial process by influencing its expectation on new asset creation. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Implications for Entrepreneurship Research In this article, we developed a model of the entrepreneurial process that explicitly incorporates uncertainty and the entrepreneurs decision making. That is, the entrepreneurial process is viewed as a nexus of uncertainty, learning, and value creation, in which real options reasoning can be used to manage the process. Our model of a chain of real options provides a way to better understand firm evolution in its earliest phases: Entrepreneurs resolve an uncertainty and create an underlying asset. This way of organizing the entrepreneurial process minimizes the downside risk, while maintaining the same upside potential for the new opportunity. With the extended classification of uncertainty including organizational endogenous and quasi exogenous uncertainties, the entrepreneurial process model provides a parsimonious view to enhance our understanding of the entrepreneurial process. As an important outcome of the entrepreneurial process, various types of value creation are articulated. We suggested three value creation intermediaries - - new strategic technological assets, organizational assets, complementary assets, and the creation of a rent generating business. We also argued that these assets are direct result of reducing uncertainty that is embedded in the entrepreneurial opportunity, which is an extension of Rumelts (1987) assertion that entrepreneurial rents stem
28 from ex ante uncertainty. These value creation intermediaries - - underlying assets of honeymoons - - are new assets both for entrepreneurs and society. The entrepreneur can sell these new assets or use them to create a business entity that generates above normal returns. Another important contribution of this article is the incorporation of the honeymoon phenomenon as part of the entrepreneurial process. Scholars of entrepreneurship tend to agree that entrepreneurs initiate disequilibrium in the market, in the sense of discovery of opportunity, reallocation of resources, and creation of change (Kirzner, 1997; Minniti & Bygrave, 1999; Schumpeter, 1934; Shane & Venkataraman, 2000; c.f., Sarasvathy, 1999). The presence of the honeymoon implies that within the context of disequilibrium initiatives and thus high uncertainty, entrepreneurs may attempt to be rational by organizing the entrepreneurial process with honeymoons, following real options reasoning. Implications for Managerial Real Options Research Our real options model of the entrepreneurial process has made a number of contributions over and above previous real options studies in management fields. We identified gaps in the real options literature - - the role of endogenous uncertainty and learning in generating and exercising real options has been largely ignored in the literature. The present study suggested a way to fill these gaps by illustrating, for example, how technological endogenous uncertainty motivates the entrepreneur use a honeymoon (a real option) for new technological assets (underlying assets). Learning activities reduce uncertainty necessary to develop the underlying assets. This approach is considered a response to recent debates on real options theorizing in management. Garud, Kumaraswamy, and Nayyar (1998) suggest that the real options approach should embrace the aspects of coevolutionary dynamics (simultaneously rather than sequentially) and examine the context in which real options occur. The model in this article supports both
29 simultaneous and sequential aspects of a technology real option. A technological real option possesses a simultaneous coevolutionary dynamics in that multiple uncertainties are involved from the beginning of the real option and there might be some overlap among corresponding honeymoons. The technological real option, on the other hand, possesses a sequential progression in that decision makers may need to resolve a salient uncertainty at a specific point in time. Also, Bettis (1994) proposes that real options scholars need to pay more attention to the organizational process in the creation and use of options rather than a specific option itself. We further argued that the honeymoon is an organizing process for entrepreneurship and acts as a real option. Responding to Bettis suggestion, we proposed a model that helps explain how new ventures can differ in their honeymoons (real options) for new assets and the organizational factors (e.g., learning ability in this article) that influence the firms ability to do so. His emphasis on capability and resources is extended with our arguments on learning. We focused on the ongoing process of resource and capability development rather than the allocation of existing resource or capability. There exist issues around our real options approach to the entrepreneurial process, which are beyond the scope of the present article but are worthy of future research. First, it is important to investigate the distinctive patterns of various uncertainties throughout the entrepreneurial process. The patterns will be influenced by founding factors such as the composition of the founding team and level of newness of both the technology and market. The next question will be in what order should entrepreneurs reduce different uncertainties. Should the entrepreneur reduce technological endogenous uncertainty first before organizational endogenous or quasi exogenous uncertainty? Does the differing order of uncertainty reduction impact the path of new
30 venture evolution and the ability to create value? To further investigate this issue, one may draw on the decision-making literature and/or investigate empirically the patterns of uncertainty resolution. Finally, scholarly attention needs to also focus on the timing and content of option exercise decisions within the entrepreneurial process with emphasis on environmental and individual factors that influence the entrepreneurs decision (e.g., nature of opportunity, perception on mortality risk, and psychological attachments). This could be tested using a think aloud procedure and/or conjoint analysis based on hypothetical scenarios. Conclusion In this article we developed a theoretical model to view the entrepreneurial process as a path-dependent chain of real options incorporating uncertainty and an entrepreneurs decision making. By doing so, this article addresses previously unanswered questions on the entrepreneurial process and value creation. Moreover, this article extends the real options literature in management by articulating the roles of various uncertainties and learning in entrepreneurs real options reasoning and by showing a way that an organizing process such as the honeymoon can be considered real options.
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36 TABLE 1 Summary of Studies Adopting Real Options Reasoning in Management Authors (Year) Application Fields Real Options Underlying Assets Related Uncertainties Sanchez (1993) Strategic management Resources and capabilities Learning and revenues (from new products) Exogenous uncertainty Kogut & Kulatilaka (1994) Strategic management Platform investment in new capabilities, including new technologies, organizational capabilities, and joint venture, flexible manufacturing system, country platform Not explicitly mentioned Exogenous uncertainty Bowman & Hurry (1993) Strategic management Strategy, a process of organizational resource- investment choices Not explicitly mentioned (exploitation of the opportunity) Environmental uncertainty (Exogenous) Folta (1998) Strategic management Governance choices (equity R&D collaboration & JV) Technology acquisition Emphasize exogenous uncertainty & mention endogenous uncertainty McGrath (1996) Entrepreneur- ship Entrepreneurs resources as shadow option; business formation as real option Wealth creation External uncertainty (exogenous) & technical uncertainty (endogenous) McGrath (1999) Entrepreneur- ship Entrepreneurial initiatives Wealth creation Not explicitly mention Hurry, Miller, & Bowman (1992) Strategy & Technology management Japan VCs' Investment New technology Not explicitly mention McGrath (1997) Technology management Technology positioning investment Rent stream Recognize three types of uncertainties (technical, input cost, and boundary conditions) and emphasize the value of shifting boundary conditions (exogenous uncertainty) Hurry (1994) Strategy & International business Four shadow options (entry, exit, global/integration, flexibility) Not explicitly mentioned Exogenous uncertainty
37 TABLE 2 An Explicit Analogy of the Honeymoon to a Call Option Contract Elements of a Call Option Contract Corresponding Elements of the Honeymoon 1. A call option 1. Forming the honeymoon 2. An underlying asset (a share of stock) 2. A new asset (ultimately a rent generating business entity) 3. Premium (option price) 3. Opportunity cost of forming the honeymoon 4. Exercise price (buying price of the stock) 4. Expense paid for maintaining the honeymoon, including investments 5. Expiration date 5. The honeymoon length
38 TABLE 3 Dimensions of Uncertainty and Related New Assets Technological Endogenous Uncertainty Organizational Endogenous Uncertainty Quasi-Exogenous Uncertainty Pure Exogenous Uncertainty Related Studies Dixit & Pindyck (1994), Folta (1998) Alchian & Demsetz (1972), Hannan & Freeman (1984), Stinchcombe (1965), Williamson (1985) McGrath (1997) Achrol (1991), Achrol, Reve, & Stern (1983), Folta (1998), Weiss & Heide (1993), Wernerfelt & Karnani (1987) Definition One that is related to technological functioning of a new opportunity and can be resolved by the new ventures internal technological activities One that is related to shirking, need for metering, and accountability of organizational actions, and can be resolved by the new venture members internal managerial activities One that is related to external factors affecting the viability of the new opportunity and can be resolved by the new ventures external collective and/or relational activities (e.g., , industry infrastructure, regulation, and particular technological regime, etc.) One that is related to external factors affecting the viability of the new opportunity and can not be resolved by any kinds of the new ventures internal and external activities (e.g., demand, the entire social, economic, or technological trends). Learning Methods Experimental learning Internal interactive learning External interactive learning Environmental scanning New Assets New technological strategic assets Organizational routines; a sustainable entrepreneurial team Jointly possessed complementary strategic assets (dominant design; complementary assets; favorable legal environment; all these assets together make up a value chain for the new opportunity) Rent generating new business entity Nature of asset Rare & valuable resource (increase technological efficiency & effectiveness) Rare, valuable (increase organizational efficiency and effectiveness); & substantially bundled resource Rare, valuable (increase system level efficiency and effectiveness); & substantially bundled resource Rare, valuable, & bundled resource
39 FIGURE 1 An Integrated Model for the Entrepreneurial Process: The Honeymoons as Real Options Entrepreneurial Process (Time) Pure exogenous uncertainty Quasi exogenous uncertainty Organizational endogenous uncertainty Technological endogenous uncertainty Forming honeymoon Forming honeymoon Forming honeymoon Forming honeymoon Engaging Learning Engaging Learning Engaging Learning Scanning environments Creating New Assets Creating New Assets Creating New Assets Rent generating business entity Real option decision making Sell accumulated new assets & exit or restart Real option decision making Real option decision making * * Sub-entrepreneurial Process (Real options reasoning) * * *