May42010 Webinar

Moderator:
Keith Mallinson, Founder, WiseHarbor

Speakers:
Adrian Scrase, Head of the Mobile Competence Centre, 3GPP
Hank Kafka, Vice President Network Architecture, AT&T
Copyright 2010. WiseHarbor. All rights reserved.
May 4, 2010
Keith Mallinson
Founder, WiseHarbor
ATIS Webinar: Moving to LTE
Page 3
Outline
Next generation technology adoption lifecycles from
1G to 4G
Drivers and barriers to next generation adoption
Outlook for LTE
Page 4
Mobile Technology Adoption Lifecycles From
Launch to Peak Demand
TAC
S
TDMA
WiMAX
LTE Advanced
CDMA2000
9 years
9 years
WCDMA/HSPA
Forecasts
Peak Sales
Volume
16 years Launch
LTE
GSM
NMT
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
5
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
5
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
5
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
5
2
0
3
0
PD
C
1G
2G
3G
AMPS
16 years
Launch
9 years
Peak Sales
Volume
cdmaOne
9 years between launches for leading
mobile technology generations
16 years from initial commercial
launch to peak volumes for leading
technologies
Demand for established technologies
continues in predominantly multi-mode
devices
Page 5
3G versus 2G: What was Revolutionary in 2004?
Real-time video telephony, video on demand
Networks: UMTS 2100/GSM 900/GSM 1800
Dimensions: 95 x 50 x 26 mm
Weight: 132 grams
Talk time: up to 180 minutes
Samsung Z105 3G Phone Motorola RAZR V3 2G Phone
MPEG 4 video clips and 22kHz polyphonics
Networks: GSM 850/900/1800/1900
Dimensions: 98 x 55 x 14 mm
Weight: 95 grams
Talk time: up to 430 minutes
Page 6
Comparing Drivers and Barriers for UMTS and LTE
UMTS in 2004
2100 MHz 3G spectrum could
only be used for UMTS
Massive spectrum costs (e.g.,
$150 bn in Europe)
Economic, tech and telecom
sector collapse in 2001
Embryonic data services
ecosystem
Weak demand for data services
except SMS
Disappointing data speeds with
Release 99
Handsets clunky, costly and with
poor battery performance
Lower volumes, need for dual
mode made and above limitations
made WCDMA products
significantly more costly to buy
and to subsidize
But consumers were not willing to
pay a premium initially due to the
limitations and few benefits
LTE in 2011
Technology neutrality allows HSPA
etc in new spectrum
New spectrum is key digital
dividend 700/800Mhz and
2.5/2.6Hz in particular
Will carriers overpay again?
Economic collapse in 2008
Emerging ecosystems (eg, iPhone
App Store)
Exponential growth in demand for
data
Will LTE perform any better than
HSPA+?
Will MIMO work in phones?
Handsets somewhat similar to
their existing 3G counterparts?
Lower volumes and need for dual
mode with multiple antennas
could make LTE
products significantly
more costly
Consumer price premium?
Page 7
Outlook for LTE
Mobile broadband has the opportunity to repeat for Internet
access and data the success achieved by cellular in connecting
4 billion people for voice and text
Prospects for LTE and LTE Advanced are excellent with high
capacity, performance, and low cost per bit
WiMAX will be eclipsed with introduction of LTE-TDD
LTE adoption and success should be measured over a decade
not just a year or two
LTE will be substantially about devices other than phones and
dongles
Substantial amounts of new spectrum at reasonable costs
are essential
Page 8
Keith Mallinson
Founder
WiseHarbor
Phone: +1 617 418 3977
+44 20 7193 0339
Email: kmallinson@wiseharbor.com
Thank You
WiseHarbor is publishing an extended forecast on mobile broadband, LTE and
WiMax for phones and other devices including units sold, average prices and
market revenues. Email kmallinson@wiseharbor.com for further information
or visit www.wiseharbor.com around May 19, 2010 for launch announcement.
3GPP 2010 ATIS Webinar, Moving to LTE, 4 May 2010
9
Movingto
Movingto
LTE
LTE
Adrian Scrase
Head of 3GPP
Mobile Competence Centre
10
What Does 3GPP Specify?
3GPP Specified Radio Interfaces
2G radio: GSM, GPRS, EDGE
3G radio: WCDMA, HSPA, LTE
4G radio: LTE-Advanced
3GPP Core Network
2G/3G: GSM core network
3G/4G: Evolved Packet Core (EPC)
3GPP Service Layer
GSM services
IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
Multimedia Telephony (MMTEL)
Support of Messaging and other OMA functionality
Emergency services and public warning
Etc.
10
11
3GPP Release Concept
11
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
R99 R4 R5 R6 R7
R8 R9
R10
High
Speed
Accesses
IP Core
Network
Services
U
M
T
S
H
S
P
A
D
L
H
S
P
A
U
L
L
T
E
L
T
E
A
d
v
H
S
P
A
+
E
P
C
C
o
m
m
I
M
S
I
M
S
M
M
T
e
l
12
Evolution on all Fronts
Radio Interfaces
Higher Data Throughput
Lower Latency
Improved Spectrum Efficiency and Flexibility
Reduced CAPEX and OPEX
IP Core Network
Support of non-3GPP Accesses
Packet-Only Support
Improved Security
Greater Device Diversity
Service Layer
More IMS Applications (MBMS, PSS, mobile TV now IMS-enabled)
Greater Session Continuity
12
Evolution of the Radio Interface
EDGE EDGE+
W-CDMA HSPA HSPA+
2000 2000
LTE LTE-Advanced
13
2010 2010
384Kb/s 1Mb/s
384Kb/s 42Mb/s 18Mb/s
100Mb/s
1000Mb/s
Standards Availability
UMTS Evolution (HSPA)
Improved spectrum
efficiency (modulation
16QAM, Reduced radio
frame lengths
New functionalities within
radio networks (including
re-transmissions between
NodeB and the Radio
Network Controller)
Latency reduced (100ms
for HSDPA and 50ms for
HSUPA)
14
240 Operators in >100 countriesForecast 1 billion subscriptions by 2011
3GPP R5 & R7 added MIMO antenna and 16QAM (Uplink)/ 64QAM (Downlink)
modulation
15
3GPP LTE
Release 8 (March 2009 version) forms the basis for the commercial
deployment of LTE
3GPP testing activities (i.e., the development of formal test descriptions and
scripts using TTCN) are based on that version
LTE Release 8 provides:
Significantly increased data throughput (downlink and uplink)
Improved spectral efficiency
Reduced latency
Major economic advantages (CAPEX and OPEX)
Reduced latency
and much more..
Results of widespread testing and early deployment indicate that all
performance targets have been met and in many cases exceeded
15
www.3gpp.org/releases
16
LTE Network Deployments
April 7, 2010:
The number of mobile
operators who have
committed to deploy LTE
advanced mobile
broadband systems has
more than doubled in the
past year.
There are now 64
operators committed to
LTE network deployments
in 31 countries, according
to the Global mobile
Suppliers Association
(GSA).
16
17
3GPP LTE (Release 9)
Release 9 is now functionally frozen (with some minor exceptions)
For LTE, Release 9 provides:
Continued integration of the Femtocell concept (Home eNodeB)
Self Organizing Network (SON) functionality
Positioning support (LCS)
Addition of new spectrum bands (e.g., 800 MHz and 1500 MHz)
Broadening of LTE deployment scenarios
And much more
In addition, Release 9 takes account of the feedback from the first LTE
deployments
17
www.3gpp.org/releases
17
18
Dispelling Some Myths About LTE
18
Myth 1: LTE is Data only
Reality: Support of voice was one of the key considerations in designing LTE. The voice solution for
LTE is IMS VoIP and it is fully specified.
Myth 2: SMS isnt supported over LTE
Reality: LTE and EPS will support a rich variety of messaging applications - including SMS. The
solution is twofold, covering both the full IMS case and a transition solution for those networks that do
not support IMS.
Myth 3: IMS isnt ready for prime time
Reality: IMS was first developed as part of Rel 5 in 2002. It is based on IETF protocols such as SIP
and SDP that are very mature. These technologies have been embraced by the industry as the
signalling mechanism for multimedia applications.
Myth 4: LTE doesnt support emergency calls
Reality: VoIP support for emergency calls (incl. location) in Rel 9. A transition solution fall back to
3G/2G - has existed since IMS was introduced (Rel 5).
19
Smooth transition from 3G to 4G
Support for wider Bandwidth (Up to
100MHz)
Downlink transmission scheme
Improvements to LTE by using 8x8
MIMO
Data rates of 100Mb/s with high
mobility and 1Gb/s with low mobility
19
Up link transmission scheme
Improvements to LTE
Data rates up to 500Mb/s
Relay functionality
Improving cell edge coverage
More efficient coverage in rural
areas
CoMP (coordinated multiple point
transmission and reception)
Downlink coordinated multi-point
transmission
Uplink coordinated multi-point
reception
Local IP Access (LIPA) &
Enhanced HNB to allow traffic off-
load
LTE LTE-Advanced
3G 4G

LTE-Advanced (Release 10)
20
Convergence(Technology)
20
3GPP LTE is a point of convergence, to unite the worlds operators on
a common technology platform
2009
CDMA Development Group (CDG) join 3GPP as a Market
Representation Partner (MRP)
TD-SCDMA Forum pave the way for TD-LTE
Public Safety Agencies announce that LTE meets their requirements
(See APCO, NENA, NPSTC announcements)
2010
3GPP/Broadband Forum workshop on fixed/mobile convergence
21
Convergence (Fixed-Mobile)
3GPP is working with the Broadband Forum to support Fixed-Mobile
Convergence using the Evolved Packet Core
Convergence addresses IP session mobility, authentication, and policy
3 Phase plan adopted
Phase 1 is basic interworking between fixed and wireless
Phase 2 provides offloading of traffic
Phase 3 provides convergence of network nodes
Phase 1 target is 3GPP Rel 10
22
3GPP Convergence (Scale)
Machine-to-Machine
Intelligent Transport Systems
Smart Grids
Smart Cards, eCommerce,
USB, High Speed Interface
mHealth
RFID
Multi-Standard Radio (MSR-
BS)
22
Machine Type Communications
(Release 10)
14 MTC Features identified
Low Mobility
Time Controlled
Time Tolerant
Packet Switched (PS) Only
Small Data Transmissions
Mobile Originated Only
Infrequent Mobile Terminated
Focus on the general functionality required to support these features
Overload control (Radio Network Congestion use case, Signalling Network
Congestion use case and Core Network Congestion use case)
Addressing
Identifiers
Subscription control
Security
MTC Monitoring
Priority Alarm Message (PAM)
Secure Connection
Location Specific Trigger
Network Provided Destination for Uplink Data
Infrequent Transmission
Group-Based MTC Features
23
Picture source: Guzer.com
Predictions indicate that there may be as many as 50 billion
devices (subscriptions) connected to mobile networks by 2020
24
Conclusions
HSPA is, and will remain, hugely successful
3GPP LTE is set to be built on that success and to become
the major enabler for mass market mobile broadband
The first commercial LTE Networks have been launched
based on 3GPP Release 8: many more will follow during
2010
LTE is an evolution path which unites the GSM/UMTS,
TD-SCDMA, and CDMA families as well as the
fixed/mobile communities
There is a much bigger picture: LTE and LTE-Advanced
will enable new services & innovation on a never before
seen scale
24
25
More Information
www.3gpp.org
contact@3gpp.org
25
Operating Partners:
Market Representation Partners:
Leveraging
Standards to Serve
Growing Customer
Needs
Hank Kafka
Vice President, Architecture
AT&T
Exceeding Expectations Circa 2001
- 27 -
Past
Style
Voice
3G
Meeting Expectations Circa 2010
- 28 -
Style
Present
Video
Social Networking
Postpaid Subscribers with
Integrated Devices
- 29 -
U.S. Ahead in Smartphone Sales
- 30 -
U.S. Mobile Broadband
Deployment
*Source: Strategy Analytics, Global Smartphone Sales Forecast by Country, Aug. and Oct. 2009
Smartphone Sales by Major Country
2010E
(in millions)
Took the global leadership position in 2008 and projected to maintain it through
2013 with 28% CAGR
**
the U.S. smartphone market is currently the worlds most important ...
Strategy Analytics
*
** Source: IDC, Worldwide Converged Mobile Device 2009-2013 Forecast Update: December 2009,
Doc # 221081, December 2009
U.S. Ranks 1st in World in 3G Subscribers
U.S. has 18% of worlds
3G subscribers
*
U.S. leads in most advanced 3G
networks
HSPA and EV-DO
with 33% of global subscribers
*
U.S. led the world in 3G net adds
in 2009 (through 3Q),
with about 1 in 5 new 3G subs
**
- 31 -
**Source: Morgan Stanley, Mobile Internet Report, Dec. 15, 2009
Estimated 3G Subscribers
in Major Countries Worldwide
2009
(in millions)
*Source OVUM, Mobile Technology Forecast, Dec. 2009
HSPA and EV-DO
3G is Key to Success of Mobile Internet*
PNDs
Digital Cameras/
Camcorders
Tracking Devices
Computing
Entertainment Devices
(Gaming, Media)
In-Car,
Telematics
Picture Frames
Media Player
A New Generation of Connected Devices
Smart Meters
Healthcare
The AT&T Networks
Wireless + Broadband
Wi-Fi + U-verse
eReaders
- 32
-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Navigation Devices
Notebooks
Netbooks
Mobile Internet Devices
Gaming Consoles
E-Books
Media Players
MP3 Players
Digital Cameras
Emerging Devices Taking Off
and Expected to Maintain Growth
- 33 -
U.S. Per Unit Sales of Wirelessly
Enabled Portable Devices
(in millions)
~6M
~86M
*Source: Strategy Analytics, U.S. Connected Device Forecast, Jan. 2010
By 2014:
About 86 million devices
More than a quarter of emerging
devices in the world projected
to be in U.S.
**
Annual U.S. retail market value
of wirelessly enabled consumer
devices estimated to be $39B
*
In 4Q09, U.S. led the world
in e-book downloads.
***
U.S. Mobile Broadband
Deployment
** Source: Strategy Analytics, U.S. Connected Device Forecast, Jan. 2010 and
Strategy Analytics, Wireless Consumer Electronics Global Market Forecast
May 2009
***Source: Wattpad, Global 4Q09 Ebook Metrics Reports, Dec. 2009
Wireless Data Growth at AT&T
3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
5000% growth over 12 quarters
- 34 -
Smartphones
Smartphone Data Consumption
- 35 -
Other Device Data Consumption
Notebooks, Netbooks, Smartbooks, ...
- 36 -
Mobile broadband growth
outpaces every other platform
**
Pew estimates that by 2020,
mobile devices will be the
primary Internet devices for
most people in the world
***
The average smartphone user
generates 10 times the amount
of traffic generated by the
average non-smartphone user
*
Customer Demand Surging
- 37 -
*Source: Cisco, VNI Mobile, 2010 **Source: CTIA, Written Ex Parte to FCC, Sept. 29, 2009
***Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, Dec. 2008
90,000
Terabytes
Cisco Forecasts 3.6 Million Terabytes per
Month of Global Mobile Data Traffic by 2014
(TB per Month)
108% CAGR 2009 - 2014
3,600,000
Terabytes
U.S. carriers projected
to spend $45 billion in total
cap-ex in 2010
**
Mobile broadband drives fiber
investments and wireline
broadband investments enhance
mobile broadband
U.S. carriers projected to spend
$22-23 billion in wireless cap-ex
in 2010
*
38
38
- 38 -
Estimated Percentage of Wireless Cap-Ex
Spent on Mobile Broadband
2010E
U.S. Leading in Mobile Broadband Investments
*Source: GSM Association, Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research, Feb. 2010 **Source: Oppenheimer, 4Q09 Post View, March 2010
Major Wireless Initiatives Delivering
Results
Focus New York City
2009
Added 900 new carriers to
increase 3G capacity
Added 7,000 T1s and 238 DS3s
to ease congestion
2010 Plans
Adding 40 new cell sites
Upgrading ~70 cell sites to 3G
Continuing backhaul
improvements
2009 National Voice Quality
(Composite Quality Index)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Up 22%
3G Dropped calls
Down 22%
3G Blocked calls
Down 25%
YoY
Improvement*
- 39 -
Dec
- 40 -
U.S. Wireless
Industry Needs
a Sustainable
Model to Meet
Demand
Keys to a sustainable model:
Increasing available spectrum
Accelerating network
efficiencies
Capitalizing on complementary
technologies
Ensuring application efficiencies
Growing need for spectrum
Operator
Spectrum
Requirement
Busiest Markets
- 41 -
Accelerate Network Efficiencies
- 42 -
LTE inherently a more
efficient technology
LTE more efficient than HSPA*
Improvements in architecture
and signaling reduce round-
trip latency*
LTE can co-exist with earlier
3GPP radio technologies, even
in adjacent channels.*
*3GPP
Source: AT&T
Efficiency of Wireless Technologies
Spectral Efficiency (bits / Hz per site)
AT&T 3G Microcell Deployment Continues
Page 43
A mini cell tower in your home
HSPA: Simultaneous voice
and data
Rollout continuing
- 44 -
Wi-Fi complementary to mobile
broadband and enhances
ubiquity
Wi-Fi increasingly connecting
devices in homes, businesses
and schools
**
Usage soaring in U.S.
56% use mobile devices to
connect
*
Projected leadership in Wi-Fi
devices
***
Public Wi-Fi Hot Spots in Major Countries
4Q09
(in thousands)
U.S. Significantly Ahead in Wi-Fi
*Source: JiWire, Mobile Audience Insights Report, Oct.-Dec. 2009 **Source: Morgan Stanley, Mobile Internet Report, Dec. 15, 2009
***Source: IDC Worldwide Wi-Fi-Enabled Mobile Phone 2009-2013 Forecast,
Doc # 219628, August 2009
Texting Growth Unabated
SMS Traffic on
AT&T Network
- 45 -
LTE is an all I.P. Mobile
Network
IMS based solution the
foundation for rich
voice/data services
Industry efforts promotes
scale, reduces complexity
More than 40 companies
participating
Voice Over LTE
- 46 -
2G/3G/4G compatibility
3G/4G simultaneous
voice/data
Flexibility, with evolving
capabilities in all areas
Convergence
Global ecosystem
3GPP Advantages
- 47 -
Leveraging
Standards to Serve
Growing Customer
Needs
Hank Kafka
Vice President, Architecture
AT&T
Moderator:
Keith Mallinson, Founder, WiseHarbor
Speakers:
Adrian Scrase, Head of the Mobile Competence Centre, 3GPP
Hank Kafka, Vice President Network Architecture, AT&T

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Moderator:

Keith Mallinson, Founder, WiseHarbor

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