The Future of GSM alarm Communications, in plain English.

The Sky is not falling, but you should read this!

By Mark Hillenburg, Product Architect, DMP
There has been much written and spoken, much consternation and disgust,
questions and not many answers on the topic of the future of GSM alarm
communication. One simple fact is true; its growing at unprecedented rates. More
and more companies are installing more and more systems using cellular every
day. How long, will the product I install tomorrow, be working? When and how will I
need to replace it? How did we get to where we are? And at the end of the day;
should I expect a sunset or a nightmare?
History of the GSM Network (AT&T & T-Mobile)
1G (AMPS) was deployed in 1973, but the alarm industry did not make use of it
until 1992 (using the control channel side), of course it was sunset in 2008. AMPS
had a life of 35 years however the security industry only used it for the last 16.

2G (GSM) was deployed around 1990 and has an expected life of 25 years. 2.5G
(Edge) was a software upgrade to the GSM and was deployed in 2002. Both GSM
and Edge will be turned off at the same time, slowly tower by tower as economics
and equipment repair necessitate. Although everyone has been in meetings with
the carriers none of them can or will say when that will happen; conventional
wisdom says the GSM network will be replaced 5-10 years from now.

3G is something called HSPA or UMTS, it uses totally different hardware, and was
widely deployed in 2005. It has an expected life of 25 years.

4G is being deployed as two different technologies. AT&T, Verizon & T-Mobile all
using something called LTE that will be a 700Mhz band product. Sprint is rolling out
what they call 4G using a Wi-Max technology from Clearwire. Sprint may move to
LTE in the future.

Todays Alarm Hardware
Today we are selling 2G (GSM) modules because only in the last few months have
3G (HSPA) modules even become available. The smart-phones drive the
technology. All the hardware manufacturers focus on building handsets for the first
2-4 years of the deployment of a new carrier technology wanting to cash in on the
handset market that only has a typical lifespan of 18 months. Once most of the
profit is squeezed out of that space, they then design and begin to deploy modules
for use in M2M or telemetry applications. That being the case, the 3G(HSPA)
modules are just starting to become available. The issue is, that they are still cost
prohibitive. Security Manufacturers could use the 3G modules on Cell
Communicators today. But they would cost 3X the current price. That will not be
the case in 12-18 months as volume increases and the module manufacturers re-
pay their initial investment and the costs become reasonable. When that occurs
panel manufacturers will be able to offer cellular products that operate on 3G and
have a future life expectancy out towards 2025 -2030.

The key is to use a product that has a modular design. It is also important that the
panel you use has a history of backwards and forwards compatibility with its own
devices. Manufacturers who plan forced obsolescence into their product are not who
you want to partner with going forward in this new world of communications
changes. You should expect your panel partner to allow you to replace that
communications module and continue with the existing installed products in a
relatively seamless fashion. If your partner of choice likes to plan in obsolescence,
maybe its time to revisit that choice.
As far as 4G (LTE) AT&T and Verizon have purchased large blocks of spectrum from
the FCC. They will begin deploying the 4G networks later in 2011. With that we can
expect to see security communicators available and affordable 4-5 years from now
using LTE. Those modules will have a forward life expectancy on toward 2040.

CDMA Network (Verizon & Sprint)
Sprint has said publicly that they will maintain the 2G (1XRTT) and 3G (EVDO)
network until at least 2020. Verizon has said it will maintain the 1XRTT for at least
5 years and EVDO for another 10.

Recently the CDMA rates have become commensurate with GSM because of other
M2M and telemetry applications moving into the CDMA network. To date no other
security providers have communicators using this technology. CDMA has certain
advantages over GSM...namely that Verizon's network is truly bigger and less
crowded on the data side. The other interesting thing is that because CDMA is late
to mature for M2M applications, the modules that are now becoming available are
both 2G and 3G modules...so any future alarm communicators would likely already
be designed as 3G and would have an expected life possibly to 2030. I have not
seen any announcements by any manufacturer that they are going to offer this type
of product in the future.


If I had a crystal ball
I predict that as a general rule IP will continue to dominate commercial alarm
communication and cellular will be the choice for residential. A few manufacturers
now have UL864 / NFPA72 approved GSM Fire Communication with NO OTHER
technologies required and as that matures and AHJs accept it, I expect the trend
for commercial to move more toward Cellular. I would not look for residential to
trend toward IP, with the exception of very large homes that include Home
Automation Systems and/or managed networks. The other exception to that would
be Managed Facilities-based Voice Network (MFVN) and Fiber Optic Services (FiOS)
to the curb in large housing developments. As that is deployed, IP for alarm
communication will be an obvious choice.

Attrition. Prevention is the only cure.
As we migrate from 2G to 3G and on to 4G the cost of the transmitting the data is
reported to be 50% of the previous generation. Bear in mind that the cost of the
data is not the total cost you pay per monthjust a small piece, however if that
prediction holds true, cellular will continue to become more affordable, and will
continue to be the product of choice for alarm communications. It will remain the
choice even with alarm companies having to change out the communicators every
10-15 years. That is only one of the many reasons you should use a panel platform
that is forward and backwards compatible.
In todays churning technology world, with 12-18 month life cycle on cell phones,
combined with the summer door knocker programs. The days of the customer using
the same old panel for 15-20 years is over. If you dont keep your customer close
to you and up to date on the latest advances, they will find someone who will. Not
to mention that once or twice every summer each of your customers will get a
knock on their door and will be told any number of convincing stories to try to get
them to leave you, and go with whatever these guys happen to be selling. You cant
afford to let your customers get stale.
Cellular enabled panels allow all kinds of advancements that tie the users to their
system. Add value and add opportunities for RMR. Just simply giving users the
ability to arm/disarm their system from any cell phone or check status remotely
while in their car; provides end users with much more peace of mind and stickiness
as a customer. If you havent made the jump to installing your panels on the next
technology, instead of the last technology your about to get left behind.