The Normal Distribution

Case- Downloaded time for a Web Site

Home Page
You are the Web site developer for On Campus, an e-commerce
company specializing in fashions for the modern college
students. The company attracts customers with a flashy and
interesting home page. It is imperative that the home page
downloaded quickly. Depending on the design of the home
page and the current traffic of the Internet, the download
time will vary. To monitor download time, an in-house PC
connected to the Web server is used to measure the
download speed- that is, the time it takes for the homepage
to be fully loaded into the Web browser. Past data indicate
that the mean download time is 7 seconds and the standard
deviation is 2 seconds. Approximately two-thirds of the
download times are between 5 to 9 seconds, and about 95%
of the download times are between 3 and 11 seconds.
In other words, the length of time it takes to download
the homepage is distributed as a bell-shaped curve
with a clustering around the mean of 7 seconds. How
can you use this information to answer questions
about the current homepage, such as what
proportion of the homepage downloads take more
than 10 seconds? How many seconds elapse before
10% of the downloads are complete? Before 99% are
complete? If the homepage is redesigned to
download faster, how does this change the answers
to these questions?
(Source: Business Statistics Lavin, Krehbeil and Berenson, Prentice Hall).
General Guidelines
Preparation for the class..
Cell Phones and Texting
Grade loss
Laptop Uses
Regular Attendance
Quiz -1 (after 6
th
session)
Mid Term (after 10
th
Session)
Population and sample
Sampling Error: The difference between a
value computed from a sample (a statistic)
and the corresponding value computed from
the population (a parameter).
Sampling distribution: A distribution of the
possible values of a statistic for a given size
random sample selected from a population.
Sampling Techniques
Probability
Simple random sampling
Systematic random
sampling
Stratified random
sampling
Cluster sampling
Nonprobability
Convenience sampling
Judgment sampling
Quota sampling
Snowball sampling
Central Limit Theorem
Suppose the population has mean, m, and
standard deviation s. Then, if the sample size,
n, is large enough, the distribution of the
sample mean, x-bar will have a normal shape,
the center will be the mean of the original
population, m, and the standard deviation of
the x-bars will be s divided by the square root
of n.
Central Limit Theorem
Estimate
Unbiased Estimator
Sampling without replacement vs sampling
with replacement.
Finite population correction factor.
Problem 1
A manufacturer of automobile batteries claim that the
distribution of the lengths of life of its best battery has a
mean of 54 months and a standard deviation of 6
months. Suppose that a consumer group decides to
check the claim be pursuing a sample of 49 of these
batteries and subjecting them to determine the battery
life.
Assuming that the manufactures claim is true, what is the
probability that the consumer groups sample has a mean
life of 52 or fewer months.
If the manufacturer is sending 500 batteries and out of
them 49 are taken for quality control test, what is the
probability that the sample has a mean life of 52 or fewer
months.
Problem - 2
XYZ manufacturing makes precision parts for the personal
computer industry. One part is used in making the motor unit for
PCs. When the production process is operating according to
specifications, the diameter of the parts is normally distributed,
with a mean equal to 1.5 inches and a standard deviation of 0.05
inches. Before shipping a large batch of these parts, the
companys quality analysts have selected a random sample of 8
parts with the following diameters : 1.57, 1.59, 1.48, 1.60, 1.59,
1.62, 1.55 and 1.52.
The analysts want to use these measurements to determine if
the process is no longer operating within specifications.
Problem 3
In the first eight months of 2011, mutual funds
investment in bonds generally outperformed
stock mutual funds. According to an
independent agency, the average year-to-date
gain for bond mutual funds in this time period
was 5.14%. Assume that year-to-date returns
are distributed as a normal random variable
with a mean of 5.14 and a standard deviation of
4.00
If an individual bond mutual fund is selected from the
population
What is the probability that the return is 4% or less.
What is the probability that the return is greater than 0%.
If a random sample of 16 mutual funds is selected from this
population and the mean return is calculated
What is the probability that the sample mean return is 4%
or less.
What is the probability that the sample mean return is 0%
or more.
What is the probability that the sample mean return is
greater than 10%.
What is the probability that the sample mean return is
between 3% and 7%.
Problem 4
Past sales record indicates that sales at the store
has a population mean Rs. 1250 per customer
and a standard deviation of Rs. 550. The store
manager has selected a random sample of 100
sales receipts. What is the probability that
sample mean is between Rs. 1225 and Rs.
1300?
Problem - 5
A population is normally distributed, with a mean
of 400 and a standard deviation equal to 50.
a) Determine the probability of selecting a single
value from the population that exceeds 450.
b) Calculate the probability of selecting a random
sample of size 3 that has a sample mean that
exceeds 450.
c) Explain why the probabilities are different.
Approximated by
normal distribution
n p 5
n (1 - p) 5
Mean
Standard error
p
P
m

n
p p
P

1
s
Sampling Distribution of
Proportion
p = population proportion
Problem 6
The classified-advertisement manager of Daily
Statesman newspaper believes that the portion of
apartment for Sale ads that are placed in the paper
that result in a rental within two weeks is .8 or
higher. She would like to make this claim as part of
papers promotion of its classified section. Before
doing this he has selected a random sample of 100
apartment for sale ads. Out of these 73 has
resulted positive. What she will do?
Problem - 7
A golf equipment catalog company regularly inserts in the
catalogs coupons that can be redeemed for merchandise in
local business. Historically, 8% of the coupons are
redeemed. Recently the company enclosed a new style of
coupon in a sample of 300 catalogs. It then determined that
35 of these are coupons are redeemed.
What is the probability that if the new coupon has the same
redemption rate as the old, the company would find 35 or
more new coupons redeemed in a sample of 300? Would
you recommend adoption of the new coupon?
Confidence Interval
Confidence Interval estimate of population mean, s
known
A manufacturer of computer paper has a production
process that operates continuously throughout an entire
production shift. The paper is expected to have a mean
length of 11 inches and standard deviation is known to be
.02 inch. At periodic intervals, samples are selected to
determine whether the mean paper length is equal to 11
inches or whether something has gone wrong in the
production process to change the length of the paper
produced. If such a situation has occurred, corrective
action is needed. Suppose a random sample of 100
sheets is selected, the mean paper length is found to be
10.998 inches. Set up a 95% confidence interval the
population mean paper length.
Problem
The quality control manager of a lightbulb factory
needs to estimate the mean life of a large shipments of
lightbulbs. The process standard deviation in known to
be 100 hours. A random sample of 64 lightbulbs
indicated a sample mean mean life of 350 hours.
Set up a 95% confidence interval estimate of the
true population mean life of lightbulbs in this
shipment.
Do you think the manufacturer has the right to state
that the lightbulbs last an average of 400 hours?
Assumption: 1) population is normally distributed
2) sample is small and is unknown
If we use sample standard deviation sto replace
The statistic t follows distribution, which is called t-
distribution.
Where s is sample standard deviation
s
s
n s
x
t
/
m

1
) (
2

n
x x
s
i
x
i
Confidence Interval estimate of population
mean, s unknown
Property of t-distribution
1) t-distribution is bell-shaped
2) t-distribution is perfectly symmetric about t=0
3) t-distribution is affected by the sample size n
4) The area in the tails of the t distribution is a little greater than the area in the tails of the
standard normal distribution. This result is because we are using s as an estimate of
which introduces more variability to the t statistic.
s
Problem
A major pharmaceutical company has randomly
sampled 14 customers who have used one of
their new painkilling drugs for two months. There
is concern that the drug may elevate the users
heart rate. Each of the customers in the sample
had their heart rate measured after using the
drug for one week. All people had heart rates of
55 prior to taking drugs. The following data were
recorded for the 14 customers.
50 70 60 70 90 72 50 80 85 55 66 70 80
40
Suppose that you have just started working in
the marketing department of the
pharmaceutical company. You are asked to
find out the interval estimate true mean heart
rate at 95% confidence interval.
Was the concerned expressed justified?
A sample survey of 400 families in Jamshedpur
shows an annual expenditure of Rs. 6000 per
family on electricity. The standard deviation of
the sample is Rs. 600.
Establish a 95% confidence interval estimate
of the average annual expenditure on
electricity in Jamshedpur.
On what degree of confidence can we assert
that the average family expenditure in
Jamshedpur is between Rs. 5955 to Rs. 6045.
Problem
Problem
A major car manufacturer wants to test a new engine to determine
whether it meets the new air pollution standards. The mean emission
of all engines of this type must be exactly 20 parts per million of
carbon. Ten engines are manufactured for testing purposes and the
emission level is determined. The data (in parts per million) are
15.8 16.4 22 20.5 16 19.8 16.8 17.9 12.7 14.9
Do the data supply sufficient evidence to allow the manufacturer to
conclude that this type of engine meets the pollution standard?
Assume that the production process is stable and the manufacturer
wants to test at 99% confidence interval.
Problem
A food product company conducted a market
study by randomly sampling and interviewing
1000 customers to determine which brand of
breakfast cereal they prefer. Suppose 313
customers were found to prefer the companys
brand. How would you estimate the true
fraction of all consumers who prefer the
companys cereal brand? Take a confidence
interval 95%.
Problem
The classified-advertisement manager of Daily
Statesman newspaper believes that the
portion of apartment for Sale ads that are
placed in the paper that result in a rental
within two weeks is exactly p. She would
like to make this claim as part of papers
promotion of its classified section. Before
doing this he has selected a random sample
of 100 apartment for sale ads. Out of
these 80 has resulted positive.
What is the interval estimate of true fraction
of claims at 99% confidence interval? What
can be the values of p?
Problem
A cellular telephone manufacturer that entered the postregulation market too quickly
has an initial problem of excessive customer complaints and consequent returns of
the cell phones for repair or replacement. One particular store has informed the
manufacturer that 10% of the products sold have come for repair or replacement.
The manufacturer wants to determine the magnitude of the problem in order to
estimate warranty liability. How many cellular phones should the company
randomly sample from its warehouse in order to estimate the fraction defective, p,
to within .01 with 90% confidence?
Problem
A cellular telephone manufacturer that entered the
postregulation market too quickly has an initial
problem of excessive customer complaints and
consequent returns of the cell phones for repair or
replacement. The manufacturer wants to determine
the magnitude of the problem in order to estimate
warranty liability. How many cellular phones should
the company randomly sample from its warehouse
in order to estimate the fraction defective, p, to
within .01 with 90% confidence?
Problem
The manufacturer of a football company uses a machine in inflate the new balls to a
pressure 13.5 pounds. When the machine is properly calibrated, the mean
inflation pressure is 13.5 pounds. But uncontrollable factors cause the pressures of
individual footballs to vary randomly between 13.3 to 13.7 pounds (conservative
estimate var = .1). For quality control purposes, the manufacturer wishes to
estimate the mean inflation pressure to within .025 pounds of its true value with a
99% confidence interval. What sample size should be used?