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TheCorrectionalPolicyProject

IowaPrisonPopulationForecast
FY2014FY2024

IowaDepartmentofHumanRights
DivisionofCriminalandJuvenileJusticePlanning

SarahJohnson,M.A.,JusticeSystemsAnalyst...PrimaryAuthor
LauraRoederGrubb,InformationTechnologySpecialist..StatisticalModeling
SteveMichael,DivisionAdministrator

October27,2014

ThisreportwasmadepossiblepartiallythroughfundingfromtheU.S.DepartmentofJustice,BureauofJustice
StatisticsanditsprogramforStateStatisticalAnalysisCenters.Pointsofvieworopinionsexpressedinthisreport
arethoseoftheDivisionofCriminalandJuvenileJusticePlanning(CJJP),anddonotnecessarilyreflectofficial
positionsoftheU.S.DepartmentofJustice.

TABLEOFCONTENTS

I.FORWARD.........................................................................................................................................2
BenefitsofForecasting..............................................................................................................................2
IowasForecastingModel.........................................................................................................................2
ForecastingAssumptions...........................................................................................................................3
Acknowledgments.....................................................................................................................................4
II.SHORTTERMOUTLOOK...................................................................................................................5
Figure1:ProjectedPrisonPopulationsandOfficialCapacities:MidYear2015...................................5
III.LONGTERMOUTLOOK....................................................................................................................6
TotalInmates.............................................................................................................................................6
Male&FemaleInmates............................................................................................................................6
PrisonCapacity..........................................................................................................................................6
Figure2:ActualandForecastedNumberofTotalInmates...................................................................6
Figure3:ActualandForecastedNumberofFemaleInmates...............................................................7
Figure4:ActualandForecastedNumberofMaleInmates...................................................................7
IV.HISTORICPRISONFORECASTS.........................................................................................................8
Figure5:HistoricalForecastFiguresFinal10YearProjections.............................................................8
PrisonpopulationfiguresbasedonJune30thdata...............................................................................8
V.FACTORSREDUCINGPRISONGROWTH............................................................................................9
1.)IncreasesinNewAggravatedMisdemeanantPrisonEntries...............................................................9
2.)DecreasesinAverage(mean)TimeServedPriortoRelease................................................................9
3.)IncreasesinParolees............................................................................................................................9
VI.FACTORSCONTINUINGPRISONGROWTH.....................................................................................10
IncreasesinPrisonAdmissions................................................................................................................10
Figure6:ActualandForecastedPrisonAdmissions............................................................................10
Figure7:PrisonAdmissionsbyAdmissionType..................................................................................11
PrisonAdmissionFactorsContinuingPrisonGrowth..............................................................................11
1.)ChangesinDisposedFelonyCharges.................................................................................................11
Figure8:TotalFelonyChargesandConvictions..................................................................................12
2.)DrugOffenderAdmissions..................................................................................................................12
Figure9:NewPrisonAdmissionsbyOffenseType.............................................................................13
Figure10:PrimaryDrugofNewPrisonAdmissions............................................................................13
PrisonPopulationFactorsContinuingPrisonGrowth.............................................................................13
3.)IncreasesinthenumberofClassBFelonsIncarcerated....................................................................13
4.)ChangesinParoleEligibilityforClassBandCfelonsduetoMandatoryMinimums.........................13
Figure11:70%andNon70%IncarceratedOffendersbyRaceFY2014.............................................14
5.)IncreasesofSexOffendersIncarceratedIncludingSpecialSentenceRevocations............................14
6.)IncreasesinHousingClassAFelons...................................................................................................15
7.)HousingFederalPrisoners/Detainees................................................................................................15
8.)IncreasesinInmateAverageLengthofStay(LOS).............................................................................15
Figure12:AverageLengthofStaybyOffenseClass,FY2005andFY2014........................................16
9.)IncreasesandDecreasesinParoles....................................................................................................17
Figure13:PrisonReleasesFY2005FY2014.......................................................................................17
Table1:RatioofParolestoExpirations,FY2005FY2014,byQuarter.............................................17

10.)ChangesinCommunityBasedOffenderPopulations......................................................................18
Figure14:EndofYearParoleandProbationPopulations(FieldSupervision)...................................18
VII.OPPORTUNITIESFORCHANGE.....................................................................................................19
Figure15:EndingPrisonPopulationsince1925.................................................................................19
IncreasesinParolees...........................................................................................................................19
IowasResponsetoDrugOffenders....................................................................................................19
SexOffenderLegislation......................................................................................................................20
MandatoryMinimumSentences.........................................................................................................20
JuvenileOffenderLegislation..............................................................................................................20
APPENDIXI:PrisonPopulationForecastedFigures.............................................................................21
Table2:MidYearPrisonPopulationsandCapacities:Total...............................................................21
Table3:MidYearPrisonPopulationsandCapacities:Females..........................................................22
Table4:MidYearPrisonPopulationsandCapacities:Males.............................................................23
APPENDIXII:PrisonAdmissionPopulationsandForecasts.................................................................24
Table5:PrisonAdmissionsbyAdmissionReason:FY2005FY2014.................................................24
Table6:NewPrisonAdmissionbyOffenseTypeandSubtype...........................................................25
Table7:NewAdmissionsbyOffenseClass..........................................................................................26
Table8:PrisonAdmissions:ActualandProjected..............................................................................27
APPENDIXIII:PrisonReleasePopulations..........................................................................................28
Table9:PrisonReleasesbyReleaseReason:FY2005FY2014...........................................................28
APPENDIXIV:LOSforReleaseCohorts...............................................................................................29
Table10:InmateMeanLengthOfStayforOffendersExitingPrison(InMonths),byFiscalYear......29
Table11.InmateMeanLengthOfStayforOffendersExitingPrison(InMonths),byFiscalYearCont
.............................................................................................................................................................30
APPENDIXV:ProbationPopulationsandRevocationsInformation....................................................31
Table12:PercentageofProbationPopulationRevoked,FY2005FY2014........................................31

CompletionofthisreportfulfillstheDivisionofCriminalandJuvenileJusticeslegislativeobligations
outlinedinIowaCode216A.137.ThissectionoftheIowaCodeinstructsCJJPtomaintainanIowa
correctionalpolicyprojectforthepurposeofconductinganalysesofmajorcorrectionalissuesaffecting
thecriminalandjuvenilejustice.1

https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/code/216A.pdf
1

I.FORWARD

This is the twentythird Prison Population Forecast prepared by the Department of Human Rights,
Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP). This report has been developed to assist the
ExecutiveandLegislativeBranchesofgovernmentinannuallyassessingtheimpactofcurrentcriminal
justicepolicyonIowasprisonpopulation.ThisreportisnotanattempttopredictthefutureofIowas
prisonpopulation.Instead,itismeanttoprovideanindicationofthedirectionIowacananticipateits
prisonpopulationwillmoveundercurrentpoliciesandprocedures.Asthesearemodified,theStatecan
anticipatedifferentresultsinfutureforecasts.

ThepresentreportutilizesdataobtainedfromtheIowasJusticeDataWarehouse(JDW).TheJustice
DataWarehouse(JDW)isacentralrepositoryofkeycriminalandjuvenilejusticeinformationfromthe
Iowa Court Information System (ICIS) and information from the Iowa Correctional Offender Network
(ICON)system.TheJDWislocatedonaplatformwiththeInformationTechnologyDepartmentasone
part of the Enterprise Data Warehouse. The JDW is managed by the Division of Criminal and Juvenile
JusticePlanning(CJJP),IowaDepartmentofHumanRights.TheoverallmissionoftheJDWistoprovide
thejudicial,legislativeandexecutivebranchesofStateGovernmentandotherentities,withimproved
statisticalanddecisionsupportinformationpertainingtojusticesystemactivities.2

BenefitsofForecasting
Tomakeadeterminationofthenumberofinmateswhomaybeincarceratedatsomepointinthe
future,ifcurrentjusticesystemtrends,policiesandpracticescontinue.

To simulate alternative corrections futures based on specific changes in laws, policies and/or
practices.Forexample,datafromtheforecastareusedextensivelyinestimatingchangesresulting
fromproposedlegislation.

IowasForecastingModel
ThestatewideprisonpopulationforecastandpolicysimulationmodelusedbytheDivisionofCriminal
and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP) is a matrix that distributes Iowas prison population over the
projectionperiodbyquarter.Therearethreebasiccomponentsofthemodel:

Projected prison admissions. This is accomplished through analysis of historical prison admissions
data,obtainedfromtheAdultCorrectionsInformationSystem(ACIS),theIowaCorrectionsOffender
Network (ICON), and felony charges and convictions disposed from the Iowa Justice Data
Warehouse (which includes statewide court information). Projected admissions are made for
variousoffenseclassesandtypesofoffenses(e.g.,ClassC70%offenders,ClassCviolent[nonsex]
offenders, Class C sex offenders, and Class C nonviolent offenders) in two separate categories
describedbelow.SexoffendersasseparatecategorieshavebeenbrokenoutsinceFY2006,inpart
because sex offenders tend to serve higher percentages of their sentences than other offenders.
Projections are accomplished through linear modeling, with adjustments based on knowledge of
recentlawchangesthatmaynotyetbereflectedinobservedtrends.

http://www.humanrights.iowa.gov/cjjp/jdw/index.html
2

Projectedaveragelengthofstay.Thisisaccomplishedthroughannualdatacollectionconductedby
CJJPutilizingJusticeDataWarehouse(JDW)information.Projectedaveragelengthsofstayaremade
forvariousoffenseclassesandtypesofoffensesintwoseparatecategoriesdescribedbelow.

Projectedreleasesofoffenderswhoareincarceratedattheonsetoftheprojectionperiod(decay).
This is accomplished through analysis of the prison population at the beginning of the projection
periodcombinedwithhistoricaldataonnumbersofinmatesreleased.Thisyearsforecastusesa
techniquebegunin2007,usingthreedifferentcalculationsbasedupontheinmategroup:
Theaveragelengthoftimeinmateshavebeenreleasedpriortotheirdischargedates;
Theaveragelengthoftimeinmateswithmandatorytermshaveserved;
Theaveragelengthoftimeservedpriortorelease.

Prisonadmissionsandaveragelengthofstaydataareanalyzedwithintwobroadcategoriesbasedon
thetypeofprisonadmission:

NewAdmissionsarenewcourtorderedcommitmentsandprobationrevocations.Lengthofstayfor
this category is defined as time served in prison prior to first release (which may be parole, work
release,expirationofsentence,etc.).

Readmissionsincludealloffenderswhohadoneormorepriorunsuccessfulconditionalreleaseson
theircurrentcommitments,includingthoserevokedfromOWIfacilityplacement.Lengthofstayfor
this category is defined as the time served in prison from the last admission (or readmission) to
release (which may be parole, work release, expiration of sentence, etc.). Please note that, while
this category is labeled readmissions, it includes some offenders who were not previously
incarcerated;examplesincludeOWIoffenderswho weredirectlyplacedin communitybasedOWI
treatmentfacilitiesbutwerelaterrevoked.

Admissions are further categorized by whether or not the crime was a sex offense or another crime
against persons. Crimes against persons are those offenses involving death, injury, attempted injury,
abuse,threats,coercion,intimidation,orduress.Examplesofcrimesagainstpersonsincludeallformsof
homicide,assault,robbery,terrorism,childendangerment,firstdegreeburglary,andfirstdegreearson.
Examplesofcrimesnotagainstpersonsincludeburglaryandarsonoffensesotherthanfirstdegree,drug
offenses,forgery,theft,andweaponspossession(asopposedtouse).
Regardinglengthofstayfiguresascontainedinthisreport:

Drunken Driving Initial Stay describes drunken drivers sentenced to prison who are awaiting
placementatcommunitybasedtreatmentfacilities.

ForecastingAssumptions
It is assumed that certain historical phenomena such as trends in population growth, prison
admissionsrates,andlengthofstayofprisonerswillcontinueinthesamedirectionorwillchangein
explicitlystatedways(seebelow).Itisfurtherassumedthatthedataprovidedasmeasurementsof
thesephenomenaaccuratelyreflectactualconditions.
Itisassumedthatnocatastrophicsocialoreconomicdisruptionssuchaswarormajordepressions
willoccurduringtheprojectionperiod.
It is assumed there will be no major legislative changes in the state criminal code or criminal
proceduresduringtheprojectionperiod.
3

Itisassumedtherewillbenomajorchangesinjudicialsentencing,paroleboardreleasepolicies,or
probation/parolerevocationpoliciesandpracticesduringtheprojectionperiod.
It is assumed that inmates serving 70% mandatory terms will be released midway between the
expirationoftheirmandatorytermandthe85%expirationofsentence.
It is assumed that sex offenders (including Special Sentence revocations) will be released upon
expirationoftheirsentencesratherthanbeingparoledorotherwisereleased.
ItisassumedthatSpecialSentencerevocationswillbeequallydividedbetweenfirstandsubsequent
revocations(2yearaggravatedmisdemeanorvs.5yearClassDFelony).

Acknowledgments
ThestaffofDivisionofCriminalandJuvenileJusticePlanningwouldliketothankthefollowingagencies
and individuals for contributing to this years forecast report (CJJP remains solely responsible for the
reportscontents).Forprovidinginformationoncurrentandplannedprisonpopulationcapacities:John
Baldwin, Director, Iowa Department of Corrections, and Lettie Prell, Research Director, Iowa
Department of Corrections. For developing the original methodologies of our prison population
forecastingandpolicysimulationtool:MaryMande,formerdirectoroftheColoradoStatisticalAnalysis
Centerandcorrectionsresearchconsultant.

II.SHORTTERMOUTLOOK

Tosomeextent,forecastingtheshorttermpopulationthisyearismoredifficultthanisthelongterm
forecast,aschangesinparolepracticesincetheendofFY2012havecontributedtoanoteworthydrop
inIowasprisonpopulation.Afterreachingalowof8,265inmatesonFebruary10,2010,thepopulation
reachedanalltimehighof9,009inApril,2011.Sincereachingthispeak,thepopulationhasdropped
backtoitslowestlevelsinceFY2001despiteincreasesinprisonadmissions.

IowasprisonpopulationisexpectedtoremainstablethroughtheendofFY2015,withapopulationof
around8,379onJune30,2015.ByJune30,2015,Iowasprisonpopulationisexpectedtoexceedofficial
capacity by about 1,057 inmates, or by about 12 percent, if current offender behaviors and justice
systemtrends,policies,andpracticescontinue(AppendixI,Table2).Womensfacilitiesareexpectedto
be at 78 percent of capacity given the addition of beds at Mitchellville, while mens facilities are
expectedtoholdabout1,199moreinmatesthantheofficialcapacity(AppendixI,Tables3and4).

Figure1:ProjectedPrisonPopulationsandOfficialCapacities:MidYear2015
10,000
PopulationEstimate

OfficialCapacity

8,379
7,743
8,000

7,322
6,544

NumberofInmates

6,000

4,000

2,000
636

778

0
TotalInmates

Females

Males

III.LONGTERMOUTLOOK

TotalInmates
Ifcurrentoffenderbehaviorsandjusticesystemtrends,policies,andpracticescontinue,Iowa'sprison
populationmaybeexpectedtoincreasefrom8,119inmatesonJune30,2014toabout11,317inmates
onJune30,2024,orbyabout39percentoverthetenyearperiod(AppendixI,Table2).3

Male&FemaleInmates
Thecurrentforecastsuggeststhatthefemalepopulationwillriseoverthenexttenyears,reaching860
inmates in mid2024 (Appendix I, Table 3). Because the female population is smaller than the male
population,itistobeexpectedthattheyeartoyearforecastnumberswillvaryasadmissionsriseorfall
fromyeartoyear(asswingsaremorelikelywithsmallernumbers).Thepopulationofmaleinmatesis
expectedtoincreaseto10,457inmatesduringthissameperiod(AppendixI,Table4).

PrisonCapacity
When compared with official Department of Corrections prison population capacities, and taking into
considerationcurrentlyplannedincreasesinprisoncapacity,thefemaleinmatepopulationisprojected
to exceed capacity by 10 percent in 2024, while the male inmate population is projected to exceed
capacitybyabout37percent,bymidyear2024(AppendixI,Tables3and4).

Figure2:ActualandForecastedNumberofTotalInmates
12,000

Actual
Capacity

10,000

8,000

Actual
Forecast

6,000

4,000

2,000

ThisyearsforecastreflectsforecastedfiguresobservedinFY2011projections.Historicprisonforecastscanbe
foundinAppendixVI,Figure15.
6

Figure3:ActualandForecastedNumberofFemaleInmates
1000
Actual
900

Forecast

Capacity
800

Actual

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Figure4:ActualandForecastedNumberofMaleInmates
12,000

Actual
Capacity

10,000

Actual

Forecast

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

IV.HISTORICPRISONFORECASTS
Thisyearsprisonforecastpredictsprisonpopulationstobeatapproximately11,317intenyears.Past
forecastshaveprojectedsimilarfigures.Forinstance,inFY2011CJJPpredictedtheprisonpopulationto
be at 11,330 within ten years.4 However, this years forecast is higher than what was predicted in FY
20135.TherewereseveralfactorsresponsiblefordrivingtheforecastedfiguresobservedinFY2014.

Between FY 2013 and FY 2014 there was an increase of prison admissions (Appendix II, Table 5)
accompanied by the highest probation populations and revocation rates observed in the last decade
duringFY2014(AppendixIII,Table9).ComparingFY2014andFY2013wealsoobservedincreasesin
lengthofstay (LOS) for many offense categories, particularly for sex crimes (Appendix IV, Table 10).
Also,inFY2014releasefiguresdeclinedfromFY2013.

Figure5:HistoricalForecastFiguresFinal10YearProjections
12,400
11,925
12,000
11,600

11,383

12,127

11,300

10,582

10,000

10,329

11,317

10,409
9,730
8,900

9,025

9,243

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000
10YearForecastedFigures
0

PrisonPopulation

PrisonpopulationfiguresbasedonJune30thdata.

4
5

http://www.humanrights.iowa.gov/cjjp/images/pdf/Forecast2011.pdf
http://www.humanrights.iowa.gov/cjjp/images/pdf/Forecast2013.pdf
8


V.FACTORSREDUCINGPRISONGROWTH
1.)IncreasesinNewAggravatedMisdemeanantPrisonEntries
InFY2005,17.2%ofnewadmissionstoIowasprisonswereoffenderswhosemostseriouscommitment
offenseswereaggravatedmisdemeanors,crimeswhichexpireafterlessthanoneyearofincarceration
(barringconsecutivesentences).Overthelastfourfiscalyearsthispercentagehasrisentoover20%,
and in FY 2014 22.3% of the new admissions were aggravated misdemeanants. These shortterm
inmatestendtocyclequickly,notaccumulatingintheprisonpopulation.

2.)DecreasesinAverage(mean)TimeServedPriortoRelease
Averagetimeservedforfirstreleaseinmatesdroppedfrom21.5monthsinFY2013to19.5monthsinFY
2014. This decrease was seen in nearly all felony groups except sex offenders, who continue to be
releaseduponexpirationofsentenceathighrates.Thedropin(LOS)hascontributedtoreducingthe
prison population. During FY 2013 (8,078) and FY 2014 (8,119), we observed particularly low prison
populations, the lowest rates observed this decade. Average time served for those released after a
previousreleasefailurealsodroppedinFY2014,from11.7monthsinFY2013to9.9monthsinFY2014.
The lengthofstay for readmissions in FY 2014 returned to levels last observed during FY 2007 and
earlier(AppendixIV,Table10).

3.)IncreasesinParolees
In2010,1,379offenderswereparoled,thelowestnumberofparoleeswehaveseeninthelastdecade.
Since FY 2010, parolees increased by 67% through FY 2014. Rather than being a dramatic change in
parolepractices,however,thelastthreeyearshaverepresentedareturntoparolepracticeofFY2006
andbefore, when parolereleasesapproximately doubledthenumberofreleasesdueto expirationof
sentence. In FY 2005 and FY 2006, for example, there were more than two parole releases for every
expirationofsentence(e.g.,inFY2005therewere2,305parolereleasesand1,035expirations).InFY
2014 paroles again doubled the number of expirations, with 2,312 paroles vs. 1,047 expirations
(AppendixIII,Table9).

VI.FACTORSCONTINUINGPRISONGROWTH

IncreasesinPrisonAdmissions
Theforecastprojectsanincreaseinnewadmissionsfrom3,703inFY2014toabout3,916inFY2024,
andanincreaseinreturnsfrom1,595to1,768.Untiladmissionsarereduced,itwillbedifficultto
furtherreduceIowasprisonpopulation.AdmissionpatternsareshowninFigure6.

Figure6:ActualandForecastedPrisonAdmissions
4,500
4,000

Actual

Forecast

3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

NewAdmissions
NewAdmissionsForecast
Returns
ReturnsForecast

ProbationRevocations:ProbationrevocationstoprisonwerehigherinFY2014thanatanypointduring
thelastdecade(1,655).Similarly,whencomparingprobationrevocationstoprobationpopulations,we
see the highest percentage (7.6%) and highest rate (13:1) of offenders revoked in the last decade
(Appendix V, Table 11). This means that the increase in probation revocations is likely attributable to
higherprobationpopulations.

This is good news and bad news. The good news is it demonstrates Iowas commitment to treating
offendersinthecommunityratherthancommittingthemtoprisonwithoutanopportunitytobecome
productivecitizensinthecommunity,butthebadnewsisthatmanyoftheseoffendersarefailingand
aregoingtoprison.

Direct Court Commitments: The last five state fiscal years have seen direct court commitments to
prisoninexcessof1,900peryear.Whilethisisareductionfromnineyearsago(therewere2,447inFY
2005),theseadmissionshavenotseenarecentsignificantdrop.

10

Figure7:PrisonAdmissionsbyAdmissionType
3,000
2,500

DirectCourtCommitments
ProbationRevocations
ReAdmissions

2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

Asdiscussedinthenextsections,thereareseveralfactorswhichinfluenceprisonadmissiontrends:
1.) ChangesinDisposedFelonyCharges
2.) DrugOffenderAdmissions
3.) IncreasesinthenumberofClassBFelonsIncarcerated
4.) ChangesinParoleEligibilityforClassBandCFelonsduetoMandatoryMinimums
5.) IncreasesofSexOffendersIncarceratedIncludingSpecialSentenceRevocations
6.) IncreasesinHousingClassAFelons
7.) HousingFederalPrisoners/Detainees
8.) IncreasesinInmateAverageLengthofStay
9.) IncreasesandDecreasesinParoles
10.) ChangesinCommunityBasedOffenderPopulations

PrisonAdmissionFactorsContinuingPrisonGrowth

1.)ChangesinDisposedFelonyCharges
Projectionsofnewprisonadmissionsareinformedbyfelonydisposedchargesandfelonyconvictionsin
theIowaDistrictCourt.Asshowninthechartbelow,felonydisposedchargesinFY2012andFY2013
rose after a long period of decline. Between FY 2005 and FY 2011, felony disposed charges dropped
nearlyonethird,onlytobereplacedbyariseofabout15percentbetweenFY2011andFY2013.Even
withthisrise,however,felonyfilingswerelowerinFY2014thaninFY2005.

Comparedtodisposedcharges,felonyconvictionsbetweenFY2005FY2014haveremainedrelatively
stable, although FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014 differ from the previous pattern in showing the most
felonyconvictions.Theseincreasesshouldbemonitoredasapotentialpredictoroffuturechangesin
prisonpopulation.

11

Figure8:TotalFelonyChargesandConvictions
30,000

27,589

26,722

DisposedCharges
26,174

Convictions
24,271

23,982

25,000

22,461

22,554
21,080

22,406

21,954

20,000

15,000

10,000

8,725

8,926

8,856

9,162

8,878

8,962

9,080

9,754

10,265

9,685

5,000

2.)DrugOffenderAdmissions
After five straight years of declines in drug admissions (FY 2005 FY 2009) to prison, new drug
admissions exceeded 900 in FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014, a figure last reached in FY 2007. Drug
admissionshavebeenoneofthedrivingforcesbehindrisingprisonpopulationsinIowaformorethan
the past decade, reaching their peak in FY 2005, when 30% of the new inmates entering prison were
committedfordrugoffenses.Inaddition,thereareobviouslyotherinmateswhohavebeencommitted
toprisonfornondrugcrimeswhichstemfromdruginvolvement.

Astimepasses,itbecomesmoreevidentthatthe riseindrugadmissionsthatpeakedin FY2005was


related to the manufacture and trafficking in methamphetamines and a subsequent focus on the
apprehension and prosecution of meth dealers and users. Since FY 2005, admissions of
methamphetamineoffendersreachedalowinFY2009buthavesteadilyincreasedsince(Figure10).

12

Figure9:NewPrisonAdmissionsbyOffenseType
Drug
Violent
Property
PublicOrder

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

Figure10:PrimaryDrugofNewPrisonAdmissions
800

Cocaine
Methamphetamine
Marijuana

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

PrisonPopulationFactorsContinuingPrisonGrowth

3.)IncreasesinthenumberofClassBFelonsIncarcerated

The projection suggests 2,400 B felons in 2024, or 23.4% of the anticipated population. Most of the
anticipated rise is due to continued lengthy incarceration of Class B 70 percent inmates, who are
expectedtoincreasefrom1,495to2,400withinthedecade.

4.)ChangesinParoleEligibilityforClassBandCfelonsduetoMandatoryMinimums
The Violent Crime Initiative (Iowa Code 902.12), effective FY 1997, abolished parole and most of the
earnedtimeforanumberofviolentoffensesandrequiredatleast85percentofthemaximumtermbe
served.Theoffensesoriginallyaffectedincludedallrobberyandseconddegreemurder,sexualabuse,
andkidnapping.AttemptedmurderandcertaininstancesofvehicularhomicidewereaddedeffectiveFY
1998.

13

Bymidyear2024,CJJPestimatesthatabout1,918prisonerswillbeservingtimeunderthesemandatory
sentencing provisions (not including sexual predators). While there is expected to be stability in the
number of those serving 70 percent Class C sentences, CJJP estimates that those serving 70 percent
ClassBsentenceswillrisefrom764to1,283,asthefirstoftheseoffenderswillnotbecomeeligiblefor
paroleuntilJanuary2016.Additionally,substantialeffectsoftheselawsontheprisonpopulationwillbe
realizedbeyondthisforecastingperiod.

It should be noted that a high percentage of those serving sentences under 902.12 are African
American. Of the 7,044 non70 percent offenders in prison on June 30th 2014, 24.6% were African
American. Of the 1,075 70 percent offenders, 36.4% were AfricanAmerican (a drop of two full
percentagepointssinceFY2011).InFY2014,36.6%ofthenewadmissionsfor70percentcrimeswere
AfricanAmerican. Of the robbers entering prison to serve 70 percent sentences, 48.0% were African
American (including 50.0% of the Robbery1 admissions). Thus, it will be difficult to reduce the racial
disparityinIowasprisonpopulationwithoutsomehowmodifying70percentsentences.

Figure11:70%andNon70%IncarceratedOffendersbyRaceFY2014

Non70%Offenders

70%Offenders

%AfricanAmerican

%AfricanAmerican

%AllOtherRaces

%AllOtherRaces

In addition to the Violent Crime Initiative, the Sexual Predator law (901A, Iowa Code) effective in FY
1997, imposes the requirement that certain repeat sex offenders serve 85 percent of the maximum
term, and increases those maximum terms from the sentences that would otherwise have been
imposed.Whilerecentsentencingchangesprovideforparoleeligibilityforthosesentencedunderthe
Violent Crime Initiative, parole remains abolished for offenders sentenced under 901A. On June 30,
2014,therewere28offendersservingsentencesunder901A(includingonelifer),afigureexpectedto
dropinthecomingdecade.Therewerefiveadditionalliferssentencedundertheenhancedsentencing
provisions of 902.14 (second and subsequent sex offenses). In FY 2013, there were six releases of
offenderssentencedunderthesexualpredatorprovisionsof901AbutinFY2014nooffenderswere
releasedunderthisprovision.

5.)IncreasesofSexOffendersIncarceratedIncludingSpecialSentenceRevocations
Prison populations have seen a rise in sex offenders incarcerated. In FY 2005, there were 1,128
imprisoned sex offenders and in FY 2014 there were 1,191 (an increase of 63 over the last decade).
Although special sentence revocations appear to have stabilized during the past three years, the
continued rise in lifetime supervision will inescapably result in rising revocations, contributing
substantiallytosexoffenderadmissions.6

Johnson,S.andDavidson,C.2014.AnAnalysisoftheSexOffenderSpecialSentenceinIowa.TheDivisionof
CriminalandJuvenileJusticePlanning.
14

6.)IncreasesinHousingClassAFelons
IowahasseenitspopulationofClassAlifersrisefrom198in1986to625onJune30,2014.AsofJune
30th 2014, 24 of the lifers in the Iowa prison system were age 70 and above, further reinforcing the
notionthatsomeliferswillbeleavingprisonwithinthenextdecade.

As a separate group, the number of Class A sex offenders is difficult to forecast, as on June 30 there
wereonly15inmatesservinglifesentencesforsexoffenses.AnewClassApenaltyforsubsequentsex
offenseswasadoptedin2005,butthefirstinmatesentencedunderthatprovisiondidnotenterprison
until2010.AnadditionalfourenteredduringFY2011.Forthepurposeofthisforecast,itisestimated
thatonenewClassAsexoffenderwillbeadmittedeveryquarter.Withthepassageoftime,itwillbe
possibletodevelopamorerigorousestimateoffutureadmissions.

7.)HousingFederalPrisoners/Detainees
MuchoftheincreaseinotherprisonadmissionsandreleasesobservedbetweenFY2005andFY2009
was due to the housing of prisoners held on interstate compact and federal prisoners/detainees.
However,thenumberofsafekeeper,compact,andotheroffenderadmissionshaveremainedrelatively
stablefromFY2010FY2014(Appendix2,Table5).

8.)IncreasesinInmateAverageLengthofStay(LOS)
As parole releases rise and fall, average time served for departing inmates also tends to rise and fall.
Analysisoftimeservedisdonebyclassandoffensetypefortwogroups:newinmateswhoareleaving
prison for the first time, and inmates who have previously been released but have returned and are
beingreleasedforasecondorsubsequenttime.Averagetimeservedforthesecondgrouptendstobe
shorter than the first group because of their having usually served a significant portion of their
sentencespriortotheiroriginalrelease.

SlightvariationsinaverageLOScanhaveconsiderableimpactontheprisonpopulation,andshowshow
changesinparolepracticecaninfluencethepopulation.Averagetimeservedinprisonpriortorelease
droppedfornewadmissionsandreturnsinFY2014(AppendixIV,Table10).7ComparingFY2014figures
withFY2005,thereareincreasesinaveragetimeservedfornearlyallfirstreleasesexoffensegroups
anddecreasesinaverageLOSfornonpersonoffensesformostgroups.Inmatesreleasedforasecond
orsubsequenttimeonasentenceinFY2014,tendedtohavealoweraverageLOSthaninFY2005.

Notethatsexoffendersineverycategorytendtoservemoretimeinprisonthanotherinmateswithin
thesameoffenseclasses.WiththecreationoftheSpecialSentencethatprovidesforpostincarceration
supervisionforallsexoffendersforoffensescommittedafterJune30,2005,CJJPexpectsacontinuation
ofthepatternthatseesmostsexoffendersreleasedfromprisonviaexpirationofsentence.8

SeethesectionForecastingthePrisonPopulationforadescriptionofadmissionandreleasecategories.
Johnson,S.andDavidson,C.2014.AnAnalysisoftheSexOffenderSpecialSentenceinIowa.TheDivisionof
CriminalandJuvenileJusticePlanning.
8

15

Figure12:AverageLengthofStaybyOffenseClass,FY2005andFY2014
FY14

AverageLOS:FirstReleases

FY05
BFelonySex
BFelonyPersons
BFelonyNonPersons
CFelonySex
CFelonyPersons
CFelonyNonPersons
DFelonySex
DFelonyNonPersons
DFelonyPersons
OtherFelony
AggravatedMisdSex
AggravatedMisdPersons
AggravatedMisdNonPersons
0

50

100

150

200
FY14

AverageLOS:ReReleases

FY05

BFelony

CFelony

DFelony

OtherFelony

AllMisdmeanors

AllReturns
0

10

15

20

25

16


9.)IncreasesandDecreasesinParoles
ParolesincreasedinFY2013andFY2014,returningtoalevellastseeninFY2006.Theratioofparoles
toexpirations,whichprovidesagoodindicatorofprisonreleasepractices,increasedto2.2parolesinFY
2014foreachexpiration,alevelsimilartothoseseeninFY2006andbefore.Itisclearthattheprison
populationdecreaseexperiencedinthepasttwoyearsisdueinlargeparttoachangeinparolepractice.
WhiletheBoardofParole(BOP)andDepartmentofCorrections(DOC)useavarietyofvalidatedtoolsto
identifythelowestriskcandidatesforrelease,itisinevitablethatsomereleasedinmateswillreturnto
prisonastheresultofviolationsofreleaseconditionsand/ornewcriminalactivity.Theextenttowhich
thesecanbecontrolledhasadirectrelationshiptochangesinthesizeoftheprisonpopulation.

Figure13:PrisonReleasesFY2005FY2014
3,000

Parole
WorkRelease

2,500

OWIFacility
Expiration

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

Table1:RatioofParolestoExpirations,FY2005FY2014,byQuarter

FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014

NParoles
2,305
2,307
1,758
1,645
1,405
1,379
1,452
2,039
2,501
2,312

NExpirations
1,035
1,081
1,202
1,359
1,446
1,323
1,445
1,582
1,201
1,047

Ratio
2.2
2.1
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
2.1
2.2

17

10.)ChangesinCommunityBasedOffenderPopulations
AsshowninFigure13,probationandparolepopulationshavevariedoverthepasttenyears.Whilethe
relationship is not necessarily linear, there appears to be a connection between the number of
offendersundersupervisioninthecommunityandthenumbereventuallyenteringprison.

The parole supervision population has risen and dropped during the decade, with the peak figure of
3,668inFY2014.SinceFY2011theparolecaseloadhasreboundedtotheFY2006andFY2007levels.
Returnadmissions(paroleandworkreleaserevocations)roseslightlyinFY2014andareatthehighest
figure since FY 2009. The extent to which the released inmates are successful on parole and work
releasewillhaveasubstantialbearingongrowthorreductioninIowasprisonpopulation.

Noteintheparolesupervisionchart(Figure15)thatthenumberofSpecialSentenceoffendershasbeen
added(inred).Thispopulationisexpectedtorisedramaticallyinthenexttenyears.

TheendofyearprobationpopulationhasincreasedonepercentsinceFY2005(22,036offendersinFY
2005 and 21,739 offenders in FY 2014), with an accompanying rise in probation revocations of 5.2%.
Thisriseinprobationrevocationshasbeenaccompaniedbyadecreaseof16.3%inthenumberofdirect
court commitments, suggesting that more offenders are being given a chance to succeed in the
communityratherthanbeingdirectlycommittedtoprison(AppendixII,Table5).
Figure14:EndofYearParoleandProbationPopulations(FieldSupervision)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500

Parole
SpecialSentence

1,000
500
0

22,600
22,400
22,200
22,000
21,800
21,600
21,400
21,200
21,000
20,800
20,600

Probation

18

VII.OPPORTUNITIESFORCHANGE

Figure15:EndingPrisonPopulationsince1925
12000
10000

NInmates

8000
6000
4000
2000
0

Source:IowaDepartmentofCorrectionsandCJJP

IncreasesinParolees
A positive sign in managing the prison population is that paroles have increased during the past two
years,reachingandexceedingthelevelsseenpriortoFY2007.Theratioofparolestoexpirationsa
goodindicatorofreleaseactivityreturnedtothelevelseenpriortoFY2007.Itshouldberemembered
thatamajorreasonforthestabilityofIowasprisonpopulationbetweenFY2003andFY2006wasan
increaseinparoles.IowacannotavoidincreasingprisonpopulationswithoutassistancefromtheBoard
ofParole(BOP).TheBOPandtheDOCuseavarietyofuptodate,reliable,andvalidtoolsproventobe
effectiveinassistingtoidentifygoodreleasecandidates.

TheBOPandDOChavealsorecentlytakenstepstostreamlinetheIowaCoderequiredprocessof
annuallyreviewinginmatesforpossiblerelease.UntilrecentlytheBOPhasconductedparolereviewsin
everyinstitutioneveryothermonth,aprocessthatcouldleadtodelaysinreleasewhen,forexample,an
inmatewouldfinishrequiredprogrammingshortlyaftertheBoardhadjustconductedreviewsinhisor
herinstitution.Recentchanges(expandeduseoftheICNaswellasutilizationoftheICONdatabase)
enabletheBoardtoconductreviewsfromanyinstitutionatanytime,sothattheexampleabovewould
leadtoanimmediatereview.ThisnewprocessalsopermitstheBOPtoconsiderstaffinitiatedreviews
atanytime,alsoreducingunnecessarydelays.

IowasResponsetoDrugOffenders
OnecontinuedopportunityforchangeliesinIowasresponsetodrugoffenders.Iowashouldcontinue
examining drug offenders and drug sentences to ensure that those committed to prison for drug
offenses could not be handled more effectively elsewhere or, perhaps, handled in prison for shorter
periodsoftime.Onestepinthisregardmaybetoequalizepowderandcrackcocainesentences,one
of the recommendations of the Public Safety Advisory Board (PSAB). While there was disagreement
withinthePSABastohowcrackandpowdersentencesshouldbeequalized,theBOPagreedthatthe
currentdisparityinpenaltieswasunwarranted.A2011studyoverseenbythePSABalsoexaminedthe
impact of mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenders, identifying no reduction in recidivism
among inmates serving mandatory minimum drug sentences and suggesting that there are inmates
coveredbythesesentenceswhocouldbesafelyreleasedintheabsenceofthemandatorysentence.
19

SexOffenderLegislation
Asnotedpreviously,duringthe2005GeneralAssembly,considerablechangesweremadeinlegislation
pertainingtosexoffenders.Theanticipatedimpactofthesechanges(astheycurrentlyexist)isincluded
in the population forecast presented here. While admissions of new sex offenders to prison have
changedlittleoverthepast20years,changesinpolicyparticularlytheestablishmentofthelifetime
Special Sentence have begun to have a significant impact on Iowas prison population. It will be
difficulttostemfuturepopulationincreaseswithoutsomehowaddressingsexoffenderpolicy.Without
some modifications either to the length of Special Sentence supervision or to which offenders are
subject to lifetime supervision, sex offenders will constitute an everlarger proportion of offenders
under community supervision. With communitybased corrections already strained due to limited
budgets,itisdifficulttounderstandhowthisadditionalworkloadcanbeadequatelyhandled.

MandatoryMinimumSentences
A final possibility to controlling future population increase lies with inmates serving 70 percent
sentences,particularlythosewith25and50yearterms.Whilethereislittleargumentthattheinmates
serving these sentences deserve punishment, and in many cases warrant long sentences for the
purposesofpublicprotection,Iowashouldconsiderwhetheritiswisecorrectionalpolicytoimprisonall
oftheseoffendersforaminimumof17.5yearswhen,priortoadoptionof(then)85percentsentences,
theseinmatesservedanaverageofaboutsevenyears.

JuvenileOffenderLegislation
InJuly2014,theIowaSupremeCourtdecidedthatmandatoryminimumcriminalsentencesviolatethe
IowaConstitution'sbanoncruelandunusualpunishmentwhenappliedtocrimescommittedwhenthe
defendantwasundertheageof18.Thiswillmeanperhaps100Iowainmateswillbeeligibletohave
theirprisonsentencesreviewedbyatrialjudge,withthepotentialforearlyreleaseinsomecases.9Itis
unknowntheextenttowhichthisrulingwillinfluenceIowasprisonpopulationsforoffendersunder18.

TheDesMoinesRegister.2014.JuvenileMandatoryMinimumSentencesperIowaDepartmentofCorrections
20

APPENDIXI:PrisonPopulationForecastedFigures
Table2:MidYearPrisonPopulationsandCapacities:Total
Year

TotalInmates
June30th
8,577
8,658
8,807
8,618
8,453
8,602
8,787
8,333
8,078
8,119

Increase
(Decrease)

81
149
189
165
149
185
454
255
41

%Change

TotalPrison
Capacity
7,215
7,240
7,256
7,414
7,414
7,414
7,209
7,209
7,209
7,272

2005

2006
0.9%
2007
1.7%
2008
2.1%
2009
1.9%
2010
1.8%
2011
2.1%
2012
5.2%
2013
3.1%
2014
0.6%
FORECAST
2015
8,379
260
3.1%
7,332
2016
8,615
236
2.7%
7,332
2017
8,982
367
4.1%
7,332
2018
9,408
426
4.5%
7,332
2019
9,827
419
4.3%
7,332
2020
10,201
374
3.6%
7,332
2021
10,539
338
3.2%
7,332
2022
10,828
289
2.7%
7,332
2023
11,078
250
2.3%
7,332
2024
11,317
239
2.1%
7,332
Source:E1ReportsandICON,IowaDepartmentofCorrections;forecastbyCJJP

Populationas%
ofCapacity
115.9%
116.4%
117.6%
114.0%
112.3%
113.8%
117.9%
113.5%
110.7%
110.4%
112.5%
114.9%
118.4%
122.1%
125.4%
128.1%
130.4%
132.3%
133.8%
135.2%

21

Table3:MidYearPrisonPopulationsandCapacities:Females
Year

#WomenJune
30th
754
718
761
740
669
707
686
682
610
616

Increase
(Decrease)

36
43
21
71
38
21
4
72
6

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FORECAST
2015
636
20
2016
654
18
2017
682
28
2018
715
33
2019
747
32
2020
775
28
2021
801
26
2022
823
22
2023
842
19
2024
860
18
Source:ICON&E1Reports;forecastbyCJJP

5.0%
5.6%
2.8%
10.6%
5.4%
3.1%
0.6%
11.8%
1.0%

Capacity

573
573
573
573
573
573
585
585
585
774

Populationas%of
Capacity
124.0%
120.2%
124.7%
122.6%
114.3%
118.9%
114.7%
114.2%
104.1%
74.4%

3.1%
2.7%
4.1%
4.6%
4.3%
3.6%
3.2%
2.7%
2.3%
2.1%

778
778
778
778
778
778
778
778
778
778

77.7%
81.1%
85.9%
91.2%
95.9%
99.6%
102.9%
105.5%
107.6%
109.5%

%Change

22

Table4:MidYearPrisonPopulationsandCapacities:Males
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FORECAST
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

#MenJune
30th
7,823
7,940
8,046
7,878
7,784
7,895
8,101
7,651
7,468
7,503

Increase
(Decrease)

117
106
168
94
111
206
450
183
35

7,743
7,961
8,300
8,693
9,080
9,426
9,738
10,005
10,236
10,457

240
218
339
393
387
346
312
267
231
221

1.5%
1.3%
2.1%
1.2%
1.4%
2.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.5%

Capacity

6,642
6,667
6,683
6,841
6,841
6,841
6,624
6,624
6,624
6,498

Populationas%of
Capacity
115.1%
116.0%
116.9%
113.2%
112.1%
113.4%
118.2%
113.4%
111.3%
113.4%

3.1%
2.7%
4.1%
4.5%
4.3%
3.7%
3.2%
2.7%
2.3%
2.1%

6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544
6,544

115.5%
117.8%
121.2%
124.7%
127.9%
130.6%
132.8%
134.6%
136.1%
137.4%

%Change

Source:ICON&E1Reports;forecastbyCJJP
Populationsexcludesexoffendercivilcommitmentunit.

23

APPENDIXII:PrisonAdmissionPopulationsandForecasts

Table5:PrisonAdmissionsbyAdmissionReason:FY2005FY2014

AdmissionType
NewCourtCommitments
New/ProbationRevocations
NEWADMISSIONS
ParoleReturn
WorkReleaseReturns
OWIFacilityReturns
SpecialSentenceReturn
PrisonCompact
RETURNS
SafeKeeper
Violators
OtherAdmissions
TOTALADMISSIONS

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
2,447
2,233
2,071
1,951
1,783
1,970
1,951
2,112
2,020
2,048
1,573
1,609
1,526
1,347
1,189
1,348
1,534
1,508
1,497
1,655
4,020
3,842
3,597
3,298
2,972
3,318
3,485
3,620
3,517
3,703

%Change
FY2005FY2014
16.3%
5.2%
7.9%

630

805

765

810

715

657

692

664

800

896

42.2%

421
91
0
2
1,144
530
477
97
6,268

480
95
0
3
1,383
516
445
18
6,204

465
90
3
2
1,325
411
435
16
5,784

380
91
10
3
1,294
466
323
9
5,390

317
85
28
7
1,152
1,077
272
9
5,482

404
73
51
3
1,188
37
202
6
4,751

420
89
68
8
1,277
47

17
4,826

443
91
89
7
1,294
57

8
4,979

472
87
103
3
1,465
48

4
5,034

540
49
106
4
1,595
46

10
5,354

28.3%
46.1%

39.4%
91.3%

89.7%
14.6%

OtherAdmissionsOtheradmissioncategoriesincludedprisonadmissionswhichdidnotfallunderaparticularadmissioncategory.
Note:theriseinsafekeeperplacementsin2009wasduetoplacementofLinnCountyinmatesastheresultofjailflooding.

24

Table6:NewPrisonAdmissionbyOffenseTypeandSubtype

OFFENSETYPE
Drug
Violent
Property
PublicOrder
Other
NoCharge
TOTAL
OFFENSESUBTYPE
Alcohol
Arson
Assault
Burglary
DrugOffenses
Flight/Escape
Forgery/Fraud
Kidnapping
Murder/Manslaughter
OWI
Pimping/Prostitution
Robbery
SexOffenses
Theft
Traffic
Weapons
AllOtherOffenses
TOTALNEWADMITS

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014

%Change
FY2005FY2014

1,217
1,009
1,092
540
151
11
4,020

1,091
889
1,121
621
114
6
3,842

964
849
1,076
597
110
1
3,597

840
846
966
520
126
0
3,298

722
803
828
507
112
0
2,972

795
920
944
537
121
1
3,318

881
911
993
586
114
0
3,485

1,000
923
1,016
568
113
0
3,620

900
920
1,008
540
149
0
3,517

948
981
1,100
533
140
1
3,703

22.1%
2.8%
0.7%
1.3%
7.3%

7.9%

17
30
437
405
1,217
17
247
19
90
249
28
96
290
358
119
58
343
4,020

25
26
457
409
1,091
7
276
18
70
317
13
43
258
363
115
66
288
3,842

37
30
428
395
964
16
234
11
79
277
16
44
239
378
98
53
298
3,597

23
31
440
358
840
7
184
22
76
271
12
48
205
355
89
38
299
3,298

29
13
437
320
722
13
132
24
64
283
8
46
182
308
66
37
288
2,972

46
20
474
396
795
8
149
9
80
299
3
71
211
330
77
48
302
3,318

63
24
494
414
881
9
156
9
58
304
8
67
200
336
76
56
330
3,485

68
21
499
448
1,000
9
164
11
77
289
7
50
217
341
72
53
294
3,620

63
27
518
426
900
10
164
6
64
228
7
56
204
343
90
73
338
3,517

56
26
542
402
948
7
197
17
85
229
6
67
201
418
79
86
337
3,703

229.4%
13.3%
24.0%
0.7%
22.1%
58.8%
20.2%
10.5%
5.5%
8.0%
78.6%
30.2%
30.7%
16.7%
33.6%
48.3%
1.7%
7.9%

Notes:Figuresmaydifferfrompreviousreportsduetorecentcorrectionsmadeinhistoricaldatabases.Source:JusticeDataWarehouse,compiledbyCJJP.

25

OffenseType
OFFENSECLASS
AFelony
BFelony
CFelony
DFelony
OtherFelony
AggravatedMisd.
SeriousMisd.
OtherMisd.
Blank
TOTALNEWADMITS

Table7:NewAdmissionsbyOffenseClass

%Change
FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2005FY2014
30
308
1185
1596
178
691
24
1
7
4,020

19
181
999
1708
156
748
30
1
0
3,842

16
203
947
1530
143
726
28
4
0
3,597

19
183
852
1417
141
663
22
1
0
3,298

17
165
701
1299
132
638
20
0
0
2,972

17
196
812
1448
161
655
29
0
0
3,318

14
189
825
1447
160
823
27
0
0
3,485

22
171
894
1501
183
823
26
0
0
3,620

13
168
829
1507
199
775
25
1
0
3,517

22
179
913
1551
182
825
28
1
2
3,703

26.7%
41.9%
22.9%
2.8%
2.2%
19.4%
16.7%
0.0%
71.4%
7.9%

26

Table8:PrisonAdmissions:ActualandProjected

ACTUAL
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014

NewAdmissions:
#
%Change

Readmissions:
#
%Change

4,020
3,842
3,597
3,298
2,972
3,318
3,485
3,620
3,517
3,703

4.6%
6.8%
9.1%
11.0%
10.4%
4.8%
3.7%
2.9%
5.0%

1,144
1,383
1,325
1,294
1,152
1,188
1,277
1,294
1,465
1,595

17.3%
4.4%
2.4%
12.3%
3.0%
7.0%
1.3%
11.7%
8.2%

FORECAST
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024

3,546
3,525
3,615
3,698
3,821
3,811
3,847
3,876
3,898
3,916

4.4%
0.6%
2.5%
2.2%
3.2%
0.3%
0.9%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%

1,424
1,441
1,508
1,547
1,594
1,641
1,664
1,702
1,738
1,768

12.0%
1.2%
4.4%
2.5%
2.9%
2.9%
1.4%
2.3%
2.1%
1.7%

Note:Foranexplanationofforecastcategories,pleaserefertotheprevioussection,
ForecastingthePrisonPopulation.
Source:JDW;preparedbyCJJP

27

APPENDIXIII:PrisonReleasePopulations

Table9:PrisonReleasesbyReleaseReason:FY2005FY2014

ToParole
ToWorkRelease
ToOWIFacility
ExpirationofSentence
OtherViolator
Escapes
OtherReleases*
TOTALRELEASES
Ratioparoles:expirations

FY2005
2,305
1,334
199
1,035
481

1020
6,374
2.2

FY2006
2,307
1,304
209
1,081
495
5
831
6,232
2.1

FY2007
1,758
1,271
198
1,202
477
1
850
5,757
1.5

FY2008
1,645
1,283
207
1,359
382

643
5,519
1.2

FY2009
1,405
1,095
194
1,446
278
1
1,872
6,291
1.0

FY2010
1,379
1,261
190
1,323
274

266
4,693
1.0

FY2011
1,452
1,222
192
1,445
40

464
4,815
1.0

FY2012
2,039
1,248
157
1,582

1
616
5,643
1.3

FY2013
2,501
959
157
1,201

1
739
5,558
2.1

FY2014
2,312
1,192
131
1,047

620
5,302
2.2

%Change
FY2005FY2014
0.3%
10.6%
34.2%
1.2%

39.2%
16.8%

*Otherreleasesincludethoseoffendersreleasedviashockprobation.

28

APPENDIXIV:LOSforReleaseCohorts

Table10:InmateMeanLengthOfStayforOffendersExitingPrison(InMonths),byFiscalYear

NEWADMISSIONS
*NoParoleMurder2nd
*NoParoleOtherClassB
*NoParoleClassC
*NoParoleHabitualClassC
BFelonyPersons
BFelonyNonPersons
BFelonySex
CFelonyPersons
CFelonyNonPersons
CFelonySex
DFelonyPersons
DFelonyNonPersons
DFelonySex
OtherFelony
OtherFelonyNonPersons
OtherFelonyPersons
OtherFelonySex
AggMisdPersons
AggMisdNonPersons
AggMisdSex
SeriousMisd
DrunkDrivingInitialStay
NewAdmissionLOSAverages

FY2005 FY2006
510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
101.7
36.4
131.5
40.0
20.5
53.0
19.0
12.5
32.0
37.6
31.5
499.0
11.7
9.0
6.5
12.0
6.3
5.2
20.9

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
98.1
31.0
125.6
36.0
20.0
53.0
19.0
12.0
26.0
30.2
30.6
32.0
23.1
9.0
7.0
9.0
5.0
5.0
18.8

FY2007

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
108.1
34.2
116.3
44.9
19.8
56.8
20.1
12.4
31.1
38.5
35.1
134.7
23.1
9.3
7.5
9.4
6.6
6.0
19.8

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
108.9
40.3
124.5
46.2
21.3
53.9
19.3
13.3
31.5
46.9
38.8
444.8
17.7
9.9
7.6
14.2
6.4
5.7
21.2

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
86.1
36.5
158.2
44.5
21.8
57.5
21.0
14.1
35.2
44.9
41.8
430.9
39.8
10.5
8.0
12.5
12.4
6.6
22.4

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
109.4
42.8
138.1
47.6
24.7
59.7
22.0
14.6
31.5
39.6
39.1
80.7
NA
9.5
7.9
11.5
6.4
5.6
23.5

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
123.5
38.6
152.3
43.7
23.3
64.0
20.6
14.5
36.8
39.7
36.4
NA
409.8
9.0
6.9
13.5
6.9
8.0
21.5

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014


510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
131.8
39.0
174.6
47.1
23.4
66.7
21.2
13.5
31.7
43.8
41.2
247.1
109.3
8.7
7.0
12.9
7.3
7.5
23.2

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
108.0
40.5
157.3
38.0
21.8
63.5
16.9
12.2
33.0
38.2
35.2
314.7
NA
8.6
7.1
11.9
6.2
6.1
21.5

510.0
210.0
84.0
126.0
101.6
34.7
172.8
45.0
18.7
66.5
17.0
11.2
32.0
40.6
36.3
489.8
NA
8.3
6.6
12.9
6.9
3.9
19.5

%Change
FY2005FY2014

0.1%
4.7%
31.4%
12.5%
8.8%
25.5%
10.5%
10.4%
0.0%
8.0%
15.2%
1.8%

7.8%
1.5%
7.5%
9.5%
25.0%
6.7%

Otherfelonygroupstendtoincludesentencingenhancements.

29

Table11.InmateMeanLengthOfStayforOffendersExitingPrison(InMonths),byFiscalYearCont

%Change

FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2005FY2014
READMISSIONS
BFelony
22.9
18.0
22.1
21.3
31.1
30.3
27.8
31.2
26.2
22.7
0.9%
CFelony
13.0
12.0
11.8
12.9
16.0
15.4
17.6
16.2
13.7
12.5
3.8%
DFelony
9.1
9.0
8.5
9.9
9.9
10.6
11.6
10.3
8.8
8.5
6.6%
OtherFelony
18.3
13.0
15.8
25.8
23.5
26.3
25.4
26.0
20.2
7.4
59.6%
DrunkDrivingReturns
10.0
9.0
9.1
10.7
9.9
10.0
12.4
10.3
8.3
7.3
27.0%
AllMisdemeanors
6.0
5.0
5.3
6.5
5.8
6.4
5.0
9.0
5.9
5.8
3.3%
ReadmissionLOSAverages
9.2
9.0
9.6
11.3
11.7
13.6
13.6
13.9
11.7
9.9
7.6%
Source:JusticeDataWarehouse.PreparedbyCJJP.

Notes:Noparolegroupsmarkedwithanasterisk(*)reflectsentencesunder902.12or901A,effectiveforpersonscommittingcertainviolentcrimesafterJuly1,
1996.Timeservedfrom20052014denotesexpectedlengthofstayunlesstherehavebeenactualreleasesinthosecategories.

Forfurtherexplanationofforecastingcategoriesandtimeservedcalculations,pleaserefertothesection,ForecastingthePrisonPopulation.

30

APPENDIXV:ProbationPopulationsandRevocationsInformation

Table12:PercentageofProbationPopulationRevoked,FY2005FY2014

FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014

ProbationPopulation
22,036
22,236
21,631
22,334
22,433
21,329
21,463
21,698
21,597
21,739

ProbationRevocations
1,573
1,609
1,526
1,347
1,189
1,348
1,534
1,508
1,497
1,655

%Revoked
7.10%
7.20%
7.00%
6.00%
5.30%
6.30%
7.10%
6.90%
6.90%
7.60%

RateofRevocation
14:1
14:1
14:1
17:1
19:1
16:1
14:1
14:1
14:1
13:1

31