Probability

Probability

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Probability
PROBABILITY
Probability measures the chance of something happening. This means we can use mathematics to find
howlikely it is that an event will happen.
Answer these questions, before working through the chapter.

I used to think:
What is an outcome?

What is the range of probability from impossible to certain?

What is the probability of rolling a 6 with a single die?

Answer these questions, after working through the chapter.

But now I think:

What is an outcome?

What is the range of probability from impossible to certain?

What is the probability of rolling a 6 with a single die?

What do I know now that I didn't know before?

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Basics

Basic Definitions
Here are four basic terms for probability:
Event An event is a situation which could have different outcomes.
Outcome An outcome is a possible result of an event.
Sample Space All the possible outcomes. For example, the same space of rolling a die is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

and the sample space of tossing a coin is {H,T}.
Random Event An event with equally likely outcomes.
Let's say a bag contains 4 red stones and 4 blue stones. One of the stones is pulled out
The event is that a stone is selected from the bag.
The possible outcomes are that a red stone or a blue stone could be selected. So the sample space is {R,B}.
The event is a random event because there are the same number of red stones as blue stones.
If there was only one blue stone, then the event would not be random because it is more likely that a red
stone is drawn.

Relative Frequency
Each outcome has a relative frequency where
Relative frequency = number of times outcome occurs
total number of trials
So relative frequency can change from experiment to experiment. Here is an example:
a

A bag is full of 10 red, 10 blue and 10 green stones. Let's say 12 stones are drawn from the bag at
random in this order:
R G G B G G B B R R R G
The relative frequency of red stones is 4 or 1 .
12
3
The relative frequency of blue stones is 3 or 1 .
12
4
The relative frequency of green stones is 5 .
12

The next time 14 stones are drawn, they are drawn in this order:
BBGRRBRRBRBRGG
The relative frequency of red stones is 6 or 3 .
14
7
The relative frequency of blue stones is 5 .
14
The relative frequency of green stones is 3 .
14

Relative frequency is also sometimes called "experimental probability".

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Probability

Questions

Basics

1. A coin is tossed once.

a

What is the sample space (the possible outcomes)?

Is this a random event? Why?

2. A single die is rolled ten times and these are the numbers it shows: 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 3, 4, 1
a

What is the sample space of rolling a die and is rolling a die a random event? Why?

In this experiment, what is the relevant frequency of a 2 being rolled?

In this experiement, what is the relevant frequency of a 4 being rolled?

3. A box factory noticed that 6 out of 72 boxes were broken.

a

What is the relative frequency of broken boxes?

What is the relative frequency of unbroken boxes?

If the box factory produced 3600 boxes, what number of these boxes is likely to be broken?

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4. A fruit shop buys fruit according to this table:

Fruit
Apples
Peaches
Apricots
Oranges
Bananas

Number bought
81
78
84
75
82

How many items of fruit were bought in total?

What is the relative frequency of apricots?

What is the relative frequency of oranges?

The owner notices that 3 of the apples he bought were rotten. What is the frequency of rotten apples within
the apples?

If the owner bought 360 apples over a week, how many apples should they expect to be rotten?

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Probability
A bag contains 1 red stone, 1 blue stone and 1 green stone. If you choose a stone without looking, what
are the chances you will choose a red stone? The probability would be 1 .
3
This is the formula to find the probability of an outcome "X":
P^ Xh =

number of ways X could occur

total number of outcomes

The 'total number of outcomes' is also the size of the sample space. Here is an example:
A single die is rolled, answer the following questions
a

How many possible outcomes are there?

6 (the die could roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6)

What is the probability that a 4 is rolled?

number of ways to roll a 4
P ^4 h =
total number of outcomes
= 1 or 0.16o
6

What is the probability that an even number is rolled?

P^evenh =

number of even rolls

=3
6
total number of outcomes
1
or 0.5
=
2

What is the probability that a number greater than 2 is rolled?

P^2 2h =

number of rolls greater than 2

=4
6
total number of outcomes
2
o
or 0.6
=
3

The formula for probability could also be used in other ways.

A watchmaker selects 100 of his watches at random and notices 6 of them are faulty.
a

What is the relative frequency of faulty watches?

number of faulty watches
= 6
100
100

If the watchmaker made 1500 watches in total, how many would he expect are faulty?
P^faultyh =

number of faulty watches

total number of watches

6 = number of faulty watches

100
1500
number of faulty watches = 1500 # 6 = 90
100

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This will not definitely happen.

It is just an expected value based
on the probability.

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Probability is Always Between 0 and 1

The number of ways any outcome X can occur will always be less than or equal to the total number of outcomes.
So the probability will always be a fraction. This means that:
0 # P^ Xh # 1

If P^Xh = 0 it means that the outcome X is impossible. If P^Xh = 1, it means that the outcome X is certain.
The closer P^Xh is to 0, the more unlikely X is and the closer P^Xh is to 1 the more likely X is.
If you find a probability greater than 1 then a mistake has been made somewhere.

Complementary Probability
The complement of an outcome is when the outcome doesn't occur.
u ( u is called tilde) means the complement of X and so P^X
u h means the probability of
The notation X
X not occuring.

u h = 1 . This means we can

The total probabilities of the outcomes must add up to 1 and so P^Xh + P^X
use the formula:
u h = 1 - P^ Xh
P^ X

A bag contains 4 blue stones, 3 green stones and 5 red stones. Answer these questions if one stone is drawn
at random
a

Find the probability that the stone will not be blue.

P^ not blueh = 1 - P^ blueh

= 1- 4
12
2
=
3

Find the probability that the stone will not be red.

P^ not redh = 1 - P^ redh

= 1- 5
12
7
=
12

Find the probability that the stone will not be green.

P^ not greenh = 1 - P^ greenh

= 1- 3
12
3
=
4

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1. A book has 120 pages and is opened to a random page.

a

What is the probability it opens on page 89?

What is the probability it is opened to an odd page?

What is the probability of opening to page 65 or after?

What is the probability of opening to a page after page 65?

What is the probability that it is not opened to page 30?

What is the probability that it is opened to a page number which is a multiple of 5?

What is the probability that the page is not a multiple of 5?

How are the answers from f and g related? Why?

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2. You notice that when taking a test, you get 1 out of the first 12 questions incorrect.
a

What is the experimental probability of incorrect answers based on this information?

Based on this information, how many questions would you expect are incorrect if the test totalled
180 questions?

3. A standard deck of cards (with no jokers) is shuffled and placed face down and spread out.
a

If a card is drawn at random, what is the size of the sample space?

If a card is drawn at random, what is the probability it is an ace?

If a card is drawn at random, what is the probability it is the ace of spades?

If a card is drawn at random, what is the probability it is not a diamond?

If a card is drawn at random, what is the probability it is red?

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4. A library has books about sport, food and history only.

a

The probability of selecting a single history book is 2 . How many history books would you expect to be in a
9
group of 36 randomly selected book?

The probability of selecting a single book about food is 4 . What is the probability of selecting a single book
9
about sport?

If 54 books are selected at random, how many of each type of book could be expected to be selected?

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5. The letters from the word Mississippi are put into a bag. Answer the following questions if a single letter is drawn:
a

What is the sample space of this experiment? (Hint: How many different letters are there?)

Which letters have the greatest chance of being selected? Why?

What is the probability of selecting an 's'?

What is the probability of not selecting the 'M'?

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Probability

Using Our Knowledge

Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot occur at the same time. If they are not mutually exclusive they
are called inclusive events.
For example, rolling a 2 and rolling a 3 with a single die are mutually exclusive events they can't happen at the
same time.
If X and Y are mutually exclusive events then P^X or Yh = P^Xh + P^ Yh .
Find the probability of rolling a 2 or a 3 with a single die
P^2 or 3h = P^2h + P^3 h
=1 +1
6 6
1
=
3
Here is an example comparing mututally exclusive events and inclusive events:
A book has 20 pages and is opened to a random page. Which of these are mutually exclusive?
X: The page number is a multiple of 5

X: The page number is a multiple of 10

Y: The page number is even

Y: The page number is odd

These are inclusive events because 10and20 are a

multiples of 5 and even which means X and Y can
happen at the same.

These are mutually exclusive events because there

are no numbers which are multiples of 10 and odd.
So X and Y can't happen at the same time.
` P^X or Yh = P^Xh + P^ Yh

` P^X or Yh ! P^Xh + P^ Yh

= 2 + 10
20 20
= 3 = 0.6
5

Numbers from 1 20

Multiples
of 5

15

1
13
9
3

Odd
Numbers

13
1

12

16

14

17

In the Venn diagram above it's easy to see that

10 and 20 are both multiples of 5 AND even
numbers. The sets overlap.

12

7
3

17

Multiples
of 10

20

15

10

19

11

14

18
19

11

10

Even
numbers

20

Numbers from 1 20

18

16

In the Venn diagram above it's easy to see that the

sets of multiples of 10 and odd numbers are mutually
exclusive. The sets do not overlap and are separate.

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If X and Y are inclusive then there is an extra step to find P^X or Yh . Subtract the probability of the 'overlapping'
outcomes. To continue the example from the previous page.
A book has 20 pages and is opened to a random page. Find the probability that the page number is even
OR a multiple of 5
X: The page number is a multiple of 5

Numbers from 1 20

Y: The page number is even

Multiples
of 5

P^X or Yh = P^Xh + P^ Yh - P^X and Yh

= 4 + 10 - 2
20 20 20
= 12
20
Since some page numbers are in both X
and Y they shouldn't be counted twice
= 3 = 0.6
5

Even
numbers

20

15

1
13
11

4
16
12

18
19

9
3

10

2
6
14
8

17

Compound Events
A compound event involves more than one outcome. It could have two stages or more. To find the probability of
compound events, find the probability of each outcome and multiply them together.
A bag holds 6 red stones and 4 blue stones. Find the probability of drawing two blue stones from two draws.
Step 1: Find the probability that the first stone is blue.
P^1st stone is blueh = number of blue stones
total stones
4
=
10
=2
5
Step 2: Find the probability that the second stone is blue.
P^2nd stone is blueh =

number of blue stones remaining

total stones remaining
3
=
9
1
=
3

There is one less blue stone

from the previous draw
There is one less stone in
the bag from the previous

Step 3: Multiply the probabilities together:

P^2 blue stonesh = P^1st stone is blueh # P^2nd stone is blueh
= 2 #1
5 3
= 2
15

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Tree Diagrams
Tree diagrams are used with compound events to see all the possible outcomes (the sample space).
A bag contains 2 red, 1 green and 2 blue stone.
a

What are all the possible methods to select two stones?

First draw

Second draw
1
4

R
2
5
2
5

1
4
2
4

B
1
4

2
4

1
4

1
5
G

2
4
2
4

Sample space

Sample space
(all possible outcomes)

From the tree diagram we can that there are 8 possible outcomes in this sample space .
{RR, RB, RG, BR, BB, BG, GR, GB} (GG is not in the sample space because there is 1 green stone.)
b

What is the probability that a blue stone is selected first and a red stone selected second?
(without replacing the blue stone)
P^BRh = 2 # 2 = 1
5 4
5

What is the probability of drawing one red and one green stone?
There are two possible outcomes with one red stone and one green table: GR and RG
P ^GR or RGh = P ^GRh + P ^RGh

= `1 # 2 j+`2 # 1 j
5 4
5 4
= 4
20
=1
5

Notice the difference between b and c . In b , the order matters so there is only one way to draw blue first and
red second. In c , the order doesn't matter, so both GR and RG are counted.
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Using Our Knowledge

Tables for Two-Stage Events

If the compound event is just a two-stage event, then a two-way table can be used.
Two multiple choice questions with options A, B and C need to be answered.
How many possible ways are there to answer the questions?

Q2

Q1
B
BA
BB
BC

A
AA
AB
AC

A
B
C

C
CA
CB
CC

There are 9 possible ways to answer the Q1 and Q2: {AA, BA, CA, AB, BB, CB, AC, BC, CC}.
So the sample space size is 9.
b

What is the probability that both answers are A?

Only one outcome has both answers as A.
` P^ both answers are Ah = P^ AAh
=1
9

What is the probability that both answers are the same?

P^same answersh = P^ AA or BB or CCh
= P^ AAh + P^BBh + P^CCh
=1 +1 +1
9 9 9
1
=
3

What are the chanced that the answers are different?

P^different answersh = 1 - P^same answersh
= 1- 1
3
2
=
3

To find the sample size of a compound event without a table or tree diagram, multiply the sample sizes of each
stage. In the example above there are 3 ways to answer Q1 and 3 ways to answer Q2, so the sample size is 3 # 3 = 9 .
A restaurant serves 5 starters, 4 mains and 3 desserts. How many ways are there to order a three course meal
of a starter, main, and dessert?
starters # mains # desserts = 5 # 4 # 3
= 60 different ways to order a three course meal.

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Questions

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1. What is the difference between mutually exclusive events and inclusive events?

2. Identify in the following if outcomes A and B are mutually exclusive or not. Give a reason why you say so.
a

A: Obtaining 'heads' from a coin toss

B: Obtaining 'tails' from a coin toss

A: Finishing a task between Monday and Thursday

B: Finishing a task between Saturday and Tuesday

3. A single die is rolled. Answer the questions about these outcomes (check if they are mutually exclusive first):
A: Rolling a 1 or a 6

C: Rolling an odd number

B: Rolling an even number

D: Rolling a 3

Find P (B or D).

Find P (A or D).

Find P (A or C).

Find P (B or C).

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4. Use this information to answer the following questions:

P^Ch = 1
5
P^Dh = 2
25

P^Ah = 1
2
P^Bh = 3
10

P^A or Bh = 4
5
P^C or Dh = 27
100
P^B or Ch = 11
25

Are A and B mutually exclusive?

Are C and D mutually exclusive?

Are B and C mutually exclusive?

If P(A or C) = 3 ,

use P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) - P(A and C)

to find P(A and C).

16

Find P(B and C).

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5. A book with 50 pages is opened up to a random page. Answer questions that follow about these outcomes:
(Hint: First check if they are mutually exclusive)

A: The page number is a multiple of 10

D: The page number is a multiple of 3

B: The page number has a 7 in it

E: The page number is 20 or below

C: The page number is a multiple of 4

F: The page number is 45 or more

Find P(A or B).

Find P(A or F).

Find P(B or E).

Find P(C or D).

Find P(E or F).

Find P(B or D).

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6. A single die is rolled twice.

a

What is the probability of rolling a 5 and then a 1?

What is the probability that both rolls will be greater than 2?

What is the probability that both rolls will be even?

What is the probability of both rolls being 6?

What is the probability that both rolls will be a 2 or a 4?

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7. A bag contains 1 yellow, 1 white and 1 orange stone. A stone is drawn at random and then replaced. Then a
stone is drawn at random for a second time.
a

Complete the tree diagram below for this compound event:

First draw

Second draw

Sample space

Y - Y

Y - W
O

W - O
-
-

How big is the sample space of this experiment? Is this what you expected?

What is the probability the white stone will be drawn first?

What is the probability the white stone will be drawn second?

What is the probability that the white stone will be drawn both times?

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Probability

Questions

Redraw the tree diagram if the stone that is drawn first is not replaced?

What is the size of the sample space now?

What is the probability that the yellow stone will be drawn first?

What is the probability that the yellow stone will be drawn second?

What is the probability that the yellow stone is drawn both times?

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Probability

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8. A tennis tournament has a singles trophy and a doubles trophy. The countries competing for the singles
trophy are: India, Spain and Greece. The countries competing for the doubles trophy are just India and Spain.
Each country has equal chance to win the trophies.
a

Draw a table for this two-stage event of trophy winners.

What is the probability that Greece will win the singles trophy?

What is the probability that India will win both trophies?

What is the probability that India and Spain will win a trophy each?

What is the probability that Spain and Greece will win a trophy each?

What is the probability that India will not win a trophy?

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Probability Tree Diagrams

When probabilities of each outcome are written on the 'branches' of a tree diagram it is called a probability tree
diagram. To find the probability of each multi-stage event just multiply the probabilities of each branch.
The probability of flipping a heads with a trick coin is 4
5
a

Draw a tree diagram representing 3 flips of this coin:

#
4
5

H
4
5

1
5

1
5

4
5

H
b
4
5

T
1
5

#
4
5

c
1
5

H
1
5

4
5
T

#
1
5
T

4
5
1
5

Find the probability of flipping 3 heads?

P ^HHHh = 4 # 4 # 4
5 5 5
= 64
125

Find the probability of flipping T-H-T.

P ^THTh = 1 # 4 # 1
5 5 5
= 4
125

22

Multiply the probabilities of each branch

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Multiply the probabilities of each branch

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Probability from Venn Diagrams

Venn diagrams help us see groups better. Let's say that from 30 students, 12 play football, 11 play tennis and 5
play both then the Venn diagram would look like this:
Football

Tennis

12

So the diagram shows that 7 students play football only, 6 students play tennis only, 5 students play both and
12students don't play either game.
The part in both circles is called the intersection. It has this symbol "+". In the example above there are
12(7+5) students in football, 11(6+5) in tennis and 5 in the intersection football + tennis. This means that
5 students played football AND tennis.
The union of sets is the combined set and has the symbol ",". Above example football , tennis has
7+5+6=18 students. This means that students play football OR tennis.
Let's say a student is selected at random from the group represented in the above Venn diagram
a

Find the probability that the student plays football.

P^footballh =

number of football players

numbers of students
7
= +5
30
2
=
5

Find the probability that the student plays tennis or football.

P^football , tennish =

number of students who play football or tennis

numbers of students
7
5
6
+
+
=
30
3
=
5

Find the probability that the student plays tennis and football.
P^football + tennish =

number of students who play football and tennis

numbers of students
5
=
30
1
=
6

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Probability from Tables

Sometimes tables are used in probability questions.
At the olympics, a country won medals for events according to this table
Gold
11
10
16
37

Swimming
Fencing
Archery
Total
a

Silver
15
13
11
39

Bronze
7
5
12
24

Total
33
28
39
100

If a medal is selected at random then what is the probability it is gold?

P^ gold medalh =

number of gold medals

total medals
= 37
100

If a silver medal is selected at random then what is the probability it would be for archery?
P^silver medal for archeryh =

number of silver medal for archery

total silver medals
11
=
39

If a medal from fencing is selected at random, what is the probability it is bronze?

P^fencing medal is bronzeh =

number of bronze fencing medals

total fencing medals
5
=
28

If a medal is selected at random, what is the probability it will be a gold medal for swimming?
P^ gold medal from swimmingh =

number of gold medals for swimming

total medals
= 11
100

The type of table in the above example is called a 'contingency' table.

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1. What do the symbols + and , mean?

2. A group of 20 people are asked which pets they have. This is represented in this Venn Diagram:
Cats
7

Dogs
4

How many people have dogs only?

How many people have dogs and cats?

If a person is chosen at random find the probability that they have cats only, P(cats).

Find the probability of a person having cats and dogs, P(cats + dogs).

Find the P(cats , dogs).

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3. A different group of people was asked about which pets they had and this is the resulting Venn diagram:
Cats

Dogs
6

10

3
7

3
5
Fish

How many people have fish only?

How many are in the set cats + dogs?

How many people in the set dogs + fish?

How many people have all 3 pets?

If a person is selected at random, then find P (cats + dogs).

If a person is selected at random, then find P (cats , dogs).

If a person is selected at random, then find P (dogs + fish).

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4. A probablity tree diagram for a certain compound event looks like this:
3
20
C
6
10
1
5

1
5
D

1
5

2
5

4
5

1
10
H

How many stages are in this compound event?

Use the tree diagram to find P(AD).

Use the tree diagram to find P(BGU).

Use the tree diagram to find P(AEQ).

Use the tree diagram to find P(ADN).

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1
8
1
3
4
9

1
10
B

1
5
3
8

3
5

1
2

13
20

7
20

3
5

1
2

2
9

3
11 40
40
1
10
2
1
5
2

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5. The table below is of a group of teenagers who play different sports.

Boys
Girls
Total

Tennis

Football

Volleyball

Total

11
9
20

5
11
16

8
6
14

24
26
50

If a student is selected at random what is the probability of selecting are a boy?

If a student is selected at random what is the probability of selecting a volleyball player?

If a student is selected at random what is the probability of selecting a girl who plays football?

If a boy is selected at random what is the probabiliy he plays football?

If a football player is selected at random, what is the probability they are a girl?

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Probability

Answers

Basics:

Knowing More:

1. a Heads and tails or {H,T}

b

2. a

This is a random event because each

outcome is equally likely.

1
12

3. a The size of the sample space is 52.

b

1
13

1
52

3
4

1
2

4. a 8

3
9

2. a The sample space of rolling a dice is

{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and it is a random event
because each outcome is equally likely.
Relative frequency of a 2 being rolled is 1 .
10
c Relative frequency of a 4 being rolled is 3 .
10

3. a Relative frequency of broken boxes is 1 .

12
b Relative frequency = 11
12
c

c
d

300

'i'and 's' as they appear 4 times each in the

word Mississippi.

Probability of selecting an 's' is 4 .

11
d 10
11
c

Relative frequency of apricots is 21 .

100
Relative frequency of oranges is 3 .
16

Using Our Knowledge:

Relative frequency of rotten apples within

the apples is 1 .
27

1. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the

same time.

Apples expected to be rotten = 13.3333...

Mutually inclusive events can occur at the

same time.

Knowing More:
1. a

Food: 24
History: 12
Sport: 18

5. a {m, i, s, p}

4. a 400
b

15

1
120

1
2

7
15

11
24

119
120

1
5

2. a Rolling 'heads' and 'tails' in a coin toss are

mutually exclusive events. This is because
these cannot be done at the same time.
b

4
5

When you add the two probabilities, they

equal 1. This is because these are all the
possible outcomes, and all the possible
outcomes have a probability of 1 because
a probability of 1 covers all outcomes.
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Finishing a task between Monday and

Thursday and finishing a task between
Saturday and Tuesday are mutually
inclusive events. This is because they can
be done at the same time. The task could
be completed on Monday or Tuesday.

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Probability

Answers

Using Our Knowledge:

Using Our Knowledge:

3. a P (B or D) = 2
3
b P (A or D) = 1
2
c P (A or C) = 2
3
d

7. a

First draw

Second draw Sample space

P (B or C) = 1
W

4.

a
b
c

Yes because P ^Ah + P ^Bh = P ^A or Bh = 4

5
No because P ^Ch + P ^Dh ! P ^C or Dh

No because P^Bh + P^Ch ! P^B or Ch

P(A and C) = 1
10
e P(B and C) = 3
50

5. a

P ^A or Bh = 1
5

P ^A or Fh = 1
5

P ^B or Eh = 23
50

Y - Y

Y - W

Y - O

W - Y

W - W

W - O

O - Y

O - W

O - O

The sample space has 9 possible outcomes.

This is expected since 3 outcomes are in
each event. So, there shall be 3 # 3 = 9
total outcomes.

1
3

1
9

1
3

P^E or Fh = 13
25

P ^B or Dh = 2
5

Y - W

O
Y

Y - O
W - Y

W - O

O - Y

O - W

P ^C or Dh = 12
25

6. a
c

30

1
36
1
4

4
9

1
36

There are now 6 total outcomes.

1
3

1
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1
3

Probability

Answers
Thinking More:

Using Our Knowledge:

8. a

India

India,
India

Spain,
India

Greece,
India

Spain

Doubles Trophy

India

India,
Spain

Spain,
Spain

Greece,
Spain

1
3

1
3

1
3

4. a There are 3 stages.

Singles Trophy
Spain
Greece

c
e

39
125

2
125

5. a

1
6
1
6

Thinking More:

2
25

1
100

P^ boyh = 12
25

P^ vollyballh = 7
25

P^ girl plays footballh = 11

50

P^ boy plays footballh = 5

24

P^football and girlh = 11

16

1. + is a mathematical symbol for the term

intersection. For example, A + B is a set which
contains all the elements that sets A and B
have in common.
, is a mathematical symbol for the term union.
For example, A , B is a set which contains all
the elements that are in A or in B or in both A
and B.
2. a 9

3. a 5

9
40

7
8

3
20

P^catsh = 7
20

P^cats + dogsh = 1
5

P^cats , dogsh = 1

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Probability

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Notes

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