Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Telecommunication
Overweight
Analyst: Arhya Satyagraha
Main Points
We expect the GSM market to post strong growth of 26.9% to 55.1m subscribers by the end of 2006, with prepaid
subscriber registration proving to be a minor road bump. Estimated 2005 subscribers to reach 43.4m.
CDMA segment to face stiff competition as Bakrie Telecom makes a push for market share, while the Sampoerna
family and the Sinar Mas Group are also planning to enter the market. 3G services still awaits a license retender,
but TLKM and ISAT are prepared to offer the service.
Sector trades at attractive valuations compared to its regional peers, with a 2006 P/E and EV/EBITDA of 11.3x and
4.0x. Strong earnings growth of 19.0% at the top line and 29.9% at the bottom line on the back of strong GSM and
CDMA growth leads us to OVERWEIGHT the industry.
Sector Outlook
Indonesia's telecoms industry is still promising despite ample
new competition in both GSM and the growing CDMA market.
We expect the industry to be crowded next year as PT Bakrie
Telecom (BT) arrives in force post its planned IPO in early 2006
to compete in the CDMA segment. Meanwhile, we forecast the
GSM market to tighten with a rejuvenated PT Excelcomindo
Pratama post its own IPO.
We remain upbeat that total GSM subscribers reach 55.1m by
the end of 2006, from an estimated 43.4m in 2005, despite
fears that prepaid subscriber registration would hamper growth.
Although we feel this threat is real, it should not hamper longterm growth, while the low penetration rate of only 19.0%
provides ample room for sub growth. For 2006, we expect
Telkomsel and Indosat to post subscriber growth of 28.8% and
24.4%, translating to 31.8m and 17.1m subscribers, respectively.
Industry trends point to continued targeting of the lower income
class market for growth, reinforcing the trend of declining ARPU:
We estimate ARPU for Telkomsel and ISAT to drop to Rp76,015
and Rp64,327 respectively.
The CDMA market is also set to continue its rapid growth in
2006. The major player, Telkom Flexi, is expected to post strong
40% growth from 3.3m subscribers to 4.6m by the end of 2006.
The CDMA segment represents the new star in the sector as it
offers the same pulse tariff as fixed line, which has been its
main selling point over the past couple of years. This segment
(%)
(m)
EV/EBITDA (x)
70
70
12.0
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
Sing Tel
10.0
8.0
China Mobile
Globe Telecom
4.0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005E
ISAT (LHS)
p.30
Pilipino Telephone
10
0
2006F
EXCL (LHS)
2007F
SECTOR
6.0
Telstra
10
StarHub
Maxis
ISAT
TLKM
China Unicom
P/E (x)
2.0
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
TLKM (LHS)
25.0
30.0
35.0