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PRINCE2tm Practitioner
COG Chairman
Introduction
Business Development Manager at CMCA(UK)
Current Chairman of the Component Obsolescence
Group (COG)
Involved in Supply Chain Management within
Aerospace and Defence for 20 years
Qualified Project Manager
Now focused exclusively on Obsolescence
Management
What is Obsolescence?
Oxford Dictionary Definition of Obsolete:
Adjective: No longer produced or used; out of date
What is Obsolescence?
What it really means is:
If you dont have the part, you cant build your product
You cant ship your product- maybe for quite some time
You cant invoice your product
You may have an unhappy customer
You may incur hugely expensive re-design / requalification costs
What is Obsolescence?
50
25
Time
Development
Introduction
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Obsolete
What is Obsolescence?
Obsolescence not limited to Electronic Components
(although they are the most severely affected)
What is Obsolescence?
In the 1970s / 1980s, Mil / Aero were driving force behind
new designs
Electronics not used extensively, consumer designs slow
to be developed in comparison to Military programmes
Even the Z80, the forerunner of todays modern computer
processors, was used extensively in Military platforms
and still is
During the Dot Com boom of the late 80s early 90s
consumer demand for electronic components rocketed
What is Obsolescence?
1994: William Perry (US Secretary of Defence) urges
Military programmes to use Commercial Parts wherever
possible
Through the 90s, mobile phones, laptops and later iPods
consumed electronic components at unprecedented rate
Aerospace (and some Military) components have to be
rugged, and survive extreme changes in temperature,
vibration etc
Commercial device (on the whole) do not
What is Obsolescence?
RoHS and WEE legislations did not help much
As of 2010, Military / Defence spend accounts for 0.3%*
of the global electronics market (Worth $3.2T by 2012*)
Not only Aerospace and Defence affected
Constantly changing technology means that every
company that manufactures will be affected by
Obsolescence at some stage
Obsolescence occurrences will increase
What is Obsolescence?
The drive for innovation now comes from Apple and Cisco
Systems : not BAE and Boeing
Obsolescence Management
Reactive
Proactive
Reactive
Disadvantages
It might
Advantages
Knowledge of individual
component life cycle status
From an OM perspective:
Obsolescence does not cause failures.
How much availability was lost because of lack of Source of
Supply.
No Source of SupplyPoor Obsolescence Management
Low
Mean
High
Existing Stock
100
200
Reclamation
1,100
1,300
1,500
Alternate
4,800
5,300
5,800
Equivalent
(Substitute)
12,200
13,500
14,800
Aftermarket
12,900
15,900
18,900
Emulation
60,200
73,000
85,700
Minor Redesign
66,600
74,400
82,100
Major Redesign
281,600
305,900
330,200
Value ()
100000
50000
0
Existing
Stock
Reclamation
Alternate
Equivelent Aftermarket
(Substitute)
Emulation
Minor
Redesign
Major
Redesign
Cost Avoidance
150000
Value ()
100000
50000
0
Existing
Stock
Reclamation
Alternate
Equivelent Aftermarket
(Substitute)
Emulation
Minor
Redesign
Major
Redesign
No of
Occurrences
Cost Avoidance
(each)
Existing Stock
14
1,200
16,800
Reclamation
4,000
Alternate
140
8,200
1,148,000
Equivalent
(Substitute)
16
2,400
38,400
Aftermarket
14
57,100
799,400
Emulation
12
1,400
16,800
Minor Redesign
231,500
926,000
Major Redesign
TOTAL
200
2,945,400
Investment
Investment
ROI=
2,645,400 300,000
ROI=
300,000
7.8
Concerns
Issues
Predominantly Reactive
Predominantly Proactive
Future Developments
In discussions with Cranfield University, COG and
MOD regarding developing a tool to predict system
availability with respect to Obsolescence
Contact Details
Nigel Wallis
Business Development Manager
CMCA(UK) Ltd
nigel.wallis@cmcauk.co.uk
07788 150941
www.cmcauk.co.uk
www.cog.org.uk