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Mental Models Checklist

- WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is)


- Associative Machine
- Always Trying to Find the Why
- Incentives/Rewards: System Gaming, Intrinsic/Extrinsic, FedEx
- Doubt-Avoidance: Fast Decisions, Avoid Too Many Options
- Consistency: Verbalized, Ben Franklin Borrowing Book from 'Enemy'
- Fairness: Individual vs Group
- Clanning: Convergence/Divergence (Granfalloon)
- Diffusion of Responsibility/Bystander Apathy
- Envy
- Reciprocity: Concessions
- Mere-Association: Pavlov, Good & Bad, Stereotypes, Messenger
- Overconfidence: Choose Lottery Number vs Generated, Endowment ('Mine')
- Overoptimism: Newlyweds, Base Rate Neglect
- Loss-Aversion: Deprival, 2.5x, Almost-Possessed: Bar-Bar-Lemon
- Contrast: Order of Homes Shown by Realtor
- Availability: Easy, Recent, Vivid - Cascades, Frequency vs *Fluency*
- Authority: Milgram Experiments, Nurse/Doctor (Credibility)
- Reason-Respecting: Why/Because
- Scarcity: Limited Time, Going Fast
- Status-Quo: Default Option, Effort Minimization
- Priming/Anchoring: Scary Movies, SS#, Smiling, Think Elderly: Walk Slower
- Confirmation: Prove Existing Beliefs, Ignore Opposing Evidence
- Hindsight: Monday Morning QB, Sense-making, Story, Outcome Bias
- Mental States: Willpower, Glucose, Mood (Good:Creative/Bad:Rational)
- Survivorship/Absence Blindness (don't see mutual funds that failed)
- Framing: Loss vs Gain
- Cognitive Switching Penalty vs Flow (no such thing as multitasking)
- Affect: Emotion, Fear of Flying
- Dunning-Kruger: Competence Levels (don't know what you don't know)
- Man-with-Hammer
- Social Proof: Line Lengths Example, Peers Have Most Pull
- Base Rates: Conjunction Bias, Bayes: Base Rate >= New Data
- Curse of Knowledge
- Pain-Avoiding Denial
- Operant Conditioning: By Consequences, Reward/Punish
- Attribution Error: Me: circumstances, Them: innate traits
- Pygmalion Effect: Expectations Influence Performance
- Mere-Exposure: Familiarity -> Liking
- Halo Effect: Order When Grading Essays, Online Reviews
- Four Fold Pattern: Risk & Loss vs Gain - Possibility Effect, Certainty Effect
- Remembering Self: Peak-End Rule, Focusing Illusion (misjudge impact)
- Negativity Dominance: Loss -> Fight Harder

v0.95
http://www.mymentalmodels.info/checklistpdf
- Power Laws: 80/20
- Expected Value
- Regression to Mean: Height, Performance (punishment/praise no impact)
- Long Tail: Amazon, Specialization
- Law of Small Numbers: Worst and Best Schools are the Smallest
- Meehl Pattern: Experts and Low/High Validity Environments

- Sunk Cost
- Time Value of Money
- Advantages of Scale vs Specialization
- Creative Destruction: Wave-riding, Stick-to-Ribs
- Comparative Advantage: Tiger Woods & Lawn
- Opportunity Cost: Options Not Chosen
- Agency Costs
- Tragedy of the Commons/Prisoner's Dilemma/Red Queen Effect
- Moral Hazard
- Gresham's Law: Bad Drives Out Good (Money/Behavior)
- Mathew Effect: Small Initial Advantage Snowballs
- Diminishing Returns: Fatigued Worker
- Critical Mass: Non-linearity, Tipping Points, M-Stan vs E-Stan
- Redundancy: Fail-Safes, Backups
- Constraints: Bottlenecks/Weak Links
- Evolution: Selfish Gene, Caveman Syndrome
- Tight Coupling: Dependent Components
- Break Points
- Feedback Loops: Positive & Negative
- Autocatalysis: Disney Movie Catalog -> VHS
- Equilibrium: Static vs Dynamic
- Complex Adaptive Systems: Participants Change the System
- Collective Intelligence: Crowdsourcing, Diversity
- Emergence: Whole is Greater than Sum of Parts
- Meta-cognition: System 1/2, Growth Mindset, Optimism, Mindfulness
- Checklists: do-confirm, read-do
- Invert: How Not To
- Disconfirming Evidence: Disprove
- Outside View: What Usually Happens
- Broad Framing: Risk Policies, Decisions in Aggregate
- 2nd/3rd Order Consequences: Peltzman/Seat Belts
- Perfect vs Good: Sometimes Better to Just Do than Wait and Perfect
- Lollapaloozas
- Pre-mortem: Assume Failure, Explain Why