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Australia Mining Report Executive Summary You have downloaded a PDF of BMI's latest views on

Australia Mining Report

Executive Summary

You have downloaded a PDF of BMI's latest views on the market, summarising the key findings that are assessed in detail in the new report, as well as the full report Table of Contents.

Find out more about this report by contacting one of our experts on +44 (0) 20 7246 1374

A u s t r a l i a M i n i n g

Australia Mining Report Table of contents

BMI Industry View SWOT Industry Forecast Coal: Dimmer Prospects On Mounting Challenges

Table: Australia: Largest Thermal Coal Projects Table: Australia - Largest Metallurgical Coal Projects Table: Australia - Coal Production Forecasts

Lead: Growth To Rebound On Magellan's Restart

Table: Australia - Key Lead Projects Table: Australia - Lead Production Forecasts

Nickel: Production To Press On Despite Price Weakness

Table: Australia - Largest Nickel Projects Table: Australia - Nickel Production Forecasts

Copper: Enthusiasm Wanes On Market Uncertainty

Table: Australia - Largest Copper Projects Table: Australia: Copper Production Forecasts

Iron Ore: High Grade Ores To Drive Production

Table: Australia - Largest Iron Ore Projects Table: Australia - Iron Ore Production Forecasts

Gold: Global Share To Decline

Table: Australia - Largest Gold Mining Projects Table: Australia - Gold Production Forecasts

Bauxite: Rio Tinto To Drive Growth

Table: Australia - Largest Bauxite Projects Table: Australia - Bauxite Production Forecasts

Zinc: Output To Decline From 2016

Table: Australia - Largest Zinc Projects Table: Australia - Zinc Production Forecasts

Tin: Brighter Outlook In Store

Table: Australia - Tin Production Forecasts

Industry Risk Reward Ratings Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Asia Mining Risk/Reward Ratings

Market Overview

Table: Australia - Select Key Mining Projects Table: Australia - Mining Industry Value And Production

Regulatory Development

Table: Australia - Mineral Taxation Table: Australia - Key Legislative Changes

Commodities Forecast Commodity Strategy - Monthly Metals Update Iron Ore Steel Aluminium

Published Date: 01 Apr 2014

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Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts Table: BMI

Copper

Lead

Nickel

Tin

Zinc

Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts Table: BMI Commodity Strategy Table

Competitive Landscape

Table: Financial Data For Key Mining Firms Listed In Australia

Company Profile

BHP Billiton

Table: Table: BHP Billiton - Key Financial Data

Rio Tinto Minmetals Resources

Table: Table: Minmetals Resources - Key Financial Data

Xstrata

Table: Xstrata - Key Financial Data

Regional Overview

Asia Overview

Table: Table: Asia - Key Legislative Changes

Global Industry Overview Global Mining Outlook

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Table: Recent Tax Increases

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Methodology Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators Table: Weighting Of Components

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A u s t r a l i a M i n i n g

Australia Mining Report

Published Date: 01 Apr 2014

BMI View: With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sect or is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. W e forecast Australia's mining sector value to reach US$187bn by 2018 , growing at an annual average rate of 4.0 % over our forecast period. This contrasts wit h an average growth rate of 21.7 % per annum over the past decade.

Australia has been among the biggest beneficiaries from the China-led commodities boom over the past decade, attracting huge amounts of investment into the minerals space. Driven by China's voracious appetite for key commodities such as coal and iron ore, the value of Australia's mining industry had increased by more than six-fold from US$24bn in 2003 to US$147bn in 2012. As a result, this has seen the sector's share of GDP rising from 4.5% to 9.6% over the same period. However, we believe the boom years in the mining industry is over. With China's economy on course for a rude slowdown over the coming years, Australia's mining sector is set to suffer the painful spillover effects of a sharp investment slowdown.

Boom Is Over

Australia - Mining Industry Value

slowdown. Boom Is Over Australia - Mining Industry Value We believe Australia will be the biggest

We believe Australia will be the biggest loser from the mineral imports shift in China ( see 'Minerals Import Squeeze: Bittersweet Outcomes', July 17 , 2013). The latter commands a prominent role in Australia's exports of key commodities including coal and iron ore. Already, the mining sector is feeling the crunch of plummeting commodity prices as a string of miners scale back their ambitions and slam the brakes on investment. The rising tide of economic nationalism, declining labour productivity and aggressive minimum wage legislation will compound the challenges in the mining industry, amplifying the downshift in Australia's economy going forward ( see 'Tough Times Ahead, What Can Replace The Mining Boom', May 03 , 2013). We expect the value of Australia's mining sector to reach US$187bn by 2018, growing at an annual average rate of 4.0% over our

forecast period. This contrasts with an average growth rate of 21.7% per annum over the

forecast period. This contrasts with an average growth rate of 21.7% per annum over the past decade.

Heavy Chinese Exposure

Australia - Exports of Iron Ore (LHS) & Coal (RHS) By Country

- Exports of Iron Ore (LHS) & Coal (RHS) By Country Despite the fading of the

Despite the fading of the mining boom, Australia will remain a leading player in many segments of the global mining industry given its rich deposits of minerals including iron ore, nickel, bauxite, copper, gold, uranium, diamonds, zinc and coal. Moreover, Australia's mining sector is one of the most business-friendly in the world, with domestic companies and overseas miners operating in the country. We expect Australia to remain a highly attractive destination for foreign investment, despite the introduction of a 30% super profits tax on coal and iron ore miners on July 2012. The proposed tax will not significantly affect the country's mining sector as these concerns are likely to be outweighed by Australia's rich mineral wealth.

Key Players

Given its vast potential and high quality of infrastructure, Australia is home to some of the biggest players in the global mining industry. Multinationals operating in the Australian mining industry include Australian companies BHP Billiton and Newcrest Mining and large overseas miners such as Rio Tinto, Norilsk Nickel and Xstrata. We believe the mining industry is set to witness a wave of consolidation activity over the coming quarters as a growing number of miners come under pressure from weakening mineral prices.

A u s t r a l i a M i n i n g

Australia Mining Report

Published Date: 01 Apr 2014

Thank you for downloading BMI's latest views, we hope you found the information insightful.

To find out more about how the extensive views, analysis and forecasts contained in the full report will help your company or to discuss your specific information needs please contact one of our experts on +44 (0) 20 7246 1374