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Exploring 5G: Performance Targets,

Technologies & Timelines


Sponsored By

Todays Presenters
Moderator

Presenter

Gabriel Brown
Senior Analyst
Heavy Reading

Shahram Niri
Independent Technologist
(& Former General Manager for the 5G
Innovation Center)

Agenda

Introduction to 5G
5G Market Activity
5G Technologies
Q&A

5G Introduction

An Onslaught of 5G Hype

Why is the Industry Focusing on 5G?


1. To secure funding for R&D work
2. To gain influence in the specification process
3. To attract development partners
4. To highlight IPR portfolios
5. To earn marketing advantage

5G Performance Targets
End-user data rates
Indoor / campus
Urban and suburban
Far rural

>> Up to 10 Gbit/s
>> 100 Mbit/s
>> ~Mbit/s everywhere

System targets
Massive scalability
1000 X capacity
Power consumption

>> Millions of devices


>> Per Unit Area
>> Up to 90% reduction

5G Spectrum: Sub 1GHz to 100GHz

Source: Ericsson Review, June 2014

5G will cater for entire spectrum band: sub 1GHz to 100 GHz
10GHz 100GHZ (mmW) needed for multi Gbit/s
Shared access spectrum to increase availability
Flexible duplex (dynamic uplink & downlink; esp. small cells)
Will 5G consist of multiple well-integrated radio interfaces?
Or will 5G be a new air interface across the frequency range?

A Wide Range of Use-cases for 5G

Source: Huawei

Source: Ericsson

5G platform should support many service-types


Risky to define 5G technology according to a pre-defined
view of the eventual services

5G Timeline
Exploratory research

2012

2013

WRC12

2014

Prestandardization
activities

2015

2016

Standardization
activities

2017

WRC15

2018

2019

Commercialization

2020

WRC18/19
Source: METIS

Requirements phase underway


Standardization expected to start in 2016
Commercial launch from 2020?

5G Market Activity

NTT DoCoMo
DOCOMO to conduct 5G experimental trials with
six leading technology vendors
Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Fujitsu, NEC, Nokia, Samsung

Outdoor field trials planned for 2015 ahead of the


start of specification work in 2016

Google Investigating 5G Wireless?


History of investigation of next-gen wireless
technologies
Alpanetal acquisition for self-organizing, low
power Gigabit wireless technology
Extend fiber optics using 60GHz mmWave radio
Potentially part of a 5G type solution for LOS
indoor or outdoor applications

Google now influential on spectrum allocation


Is 5G a point of disruption for market entry?

BMW 5G is key to self-driving car


Requires ultra-reliable,
low-latency, networks that
work everywhere
Device-to-device
communication when out
of operator range
Important that cars can communicate with each
other and with other participants in the city
Highlights role of 5G in the Gigabit Cities concept
Radio is interface is the critical part of 5G, but apps
will have many other performance dependencies

Other Market Activity


Major RAN vendors will be critical players
Depth of R&D expertise
Accumulated radio interface technologies
Will position 5G as a smooth upgrade from LTE-A?

China will be a critical actor in 5G


Assuming a leadership role not seen in 3G & 4G
Backing itself with vast R&D investment
A net positive for 5G technology development

5G Will be a Collaborative Development


A number of non-aligned organisations
funding and directing research projects

Significant bi-lateral industry cooperation


between vendors, operators, & others

5G Technologies

Drivers For Next Generation (5G)


Number of connections and also the volume of data over
wireless networks continuously growing at a significant rate

Hyper Connectivity

Users more demanding on quality & price


Capacity challenge is real particularly in radio
Radio spectrum the blood line of wireless is a finite resources,
scarce and expensive

Growing Population Limited Resources

The data volume growth will continue but dependent on the


service quality offered by the NW and of course the data tariffs
Sustainability of mobile broadband business - Ever increasing
traffic, higher TCO and flattening ARPU

Higher Capacity

Quality of Experience
3G & 4G both promised improvements in NW capacity, data rate,
efficiency, cost and quality. 5G will be no exception but the sheer
scale of the challenges this time makes 5G research different.

Green Technology
Cost Efficiency

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

18

Capacity Challenge
Traffic growth for cases a to d

80.00

Values subject to assumption


Modest increase in number of devices and usage
Traffic growth: ~70% CAGR

Case a: Inner London business


Case b: Office
Case c: UK Peak
Case d: UK mean

70.00

Gb/s/km2

60.00

In 2020 depending on the environment


traffic per km2 (1.5 to 60 Gb/s/km2)
UK needs at least ~ 15 - 20 x capacity (2013-2020)

50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00

10.00
0.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Current LTE technology will not accommodate the


predicted traffic growth

2.5
Transmission Mode
2.0

The next generation will need to be designed


not for 2020 but for 2025-2030 capacity

X fold

1.5
1.0
0.5

0.0
SU-MIMO 2x2

SU-MIMO 2x4

JP CoMP 4x2

SU-MIMO 8x2

Impact of transmission mode change


(ISD=300, 20 MHz bandwidth)

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

19

Air Interface Performance


Significant air interface capacity
- Focus on area NOT JUST link spectral efficiency
- Designed for small Cells (capacity), extended to coverage
- More spectrum (Licensed & unlicensed operation, spectrum
sharing & other sources)

10

100

X10
(Faster than 4G)

X100+
(Connections)

Super low latency


- Sub 1 ms, TTI: 10-25 ms
- Faster signaling for higher data rate, in line with data rate
- U plan latency: frame structure, control signal timing, HARQ
- For new services (MTC, gaming, .)
- For distributed control

1000

X1000+
(Capacity)

Sub 1 ms latency
99.99% reliability & availability

Tech

3G

HSPA+

LTE

LTE-A

5G

Bandwidth
MHz

20

100

100+

SE
b/Hz/cell

0.5

~8

10+

The higher capacity and lower latency necessary for wide


range of services BUT not all the services required in the
same location, at the same time nor by the same air interface

Peak Rate
Mb/s

42 &
11

326 &
86

1000 &
375

10000 &
5000

Latency
ms

50

20

10

10

0.1-1

May need tradeoffs in


capacity, coverage and data rate

ASE
Gb/s/km2

Super reliable
- For new services and applications
- Smart transport, e-health, intelligent control,

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

20

Efficiency & Cost Requirements


Greener technology (energy efficiency)
- Current 2% ICT share of CO2 emission is likely to increase
- Power consumption doubled in past 5 years
- More power efficient HW & SW, needed
- Reducing signaling through intelligent O&M and SON
- Alternative energy sources

Reduced Total Cost of Ownership


- For x1000 need to achieve 1/1000 delivery cost per bit!?
- Deliver cost will need to be recalculated as cost per bit/km2
- Saving through energy consumption
- Saving through lower cost of operation (Plug & Play, Self
managed NW, Zero touch)
- Spectrum and infrastructure sharing
- Longer HW life cycle time
- New business models -> new revenue models

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

Greener Telecom

Lower CTO

CAPEX
40%

OPEX
60%

21

Technology & Standards Evolution


5G

4G
3G

2G
2.5G
GPRS

Digital
Mobility & Roaming
4+ STDs

1990s

Multi-media
CS & PS
2 STDs

2000s

LTE-A
3.5G
HSPA

Full IP
Flat Architecture
Efficiency
1 STD

2010s

Capacity
Spectral efficiency
QoE
New Services
New operation models
Others

2020s

Multiple access
Carrier bandwidth
RT Delay

TDMA
124 KHz
150 ms

WCDMA
5 MHz
50 ms

OFDMA&CS-OFDM
20 ->100 MHz
10 ms

Small Cell / High frequency


100 Mhz -> higher SDR
0.1-1 ms

Data rate

9.6 - 100 kb/s


-> GPRS

2 - 42 / 100 Mb/s
-> HSPA+ & MC

300 Mb/s - 1 Gb/s


-> LTE-A

10 100 Gb/s
Asymmetric & balanced UL/DL

Transport

TDM
Copper & MW

TDM/ATM
Copper & MW

IP/MPLS
Fiber & MW

IP/MPLS - Self Backhauling


Fiber, MW & mmW

Core NW

CS Core

CS and PS core

All PS (Flat IP)

Services

Voice /SMS

Voice & Data


/Multimedia

IP Voice & Data


Mobile Internet

IP Voice & Data (HD, 3D, )


TV (Broadcast & Multicast),
D2D

Service
Pricing

Voice and SMS


Usage based

Usage based ->


Unlimited/Capped

Unlimited/Capped

OTT, Cloud
Free voice(?),
Unlimited/Capped

Spectrum

L band
Licenced operation

L band
Licenced operation

L & S band
Licenced operation

Millimetre band (C, K, E, .)

Flatter,

NFV,

SDN

Licensed & unlicensed operation

Spectrum sharing
Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

22

Enabling Technologies to Make-up 5G


New Air Interface (Small Cells)
New waveforms
New duplexing
Higher order modulation
Interference cancelation / utilization
Massive MIMO / Distributed MIMO
MU 3D Beam forming
Multi-cell cooperation
New MAC (Light MAC)

Intelligent & Adaptive Networks


Cognitive radio and network
Opportunistic & adaptive use of resources
Spectrum sensing
Automated networks/ Plug & play
Lower and smarter use of energy

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

Radio Frequency
Millimeter wave
New licensing regime
Licensed & unlicensed band operation
Spectrum sharing
Dynamic allocation

New NW Architecture
Mixed Cell & Het-Net management
Centralized RAN / Cloud RAN
SW Defined Radio (SDR) & Networks (SDN)

Separation of data & control planes


No cell architecture
Integrated NW (Mobile+ broadcast/multicast)
Network sharing

23

New Air Interface For 5G


New generations are mainly defined by new air interfaces / waveforms
A new air interface / new physical layer not for a few dB gain but a total
overhaul of the physical layer
- Much higher spectral efficiency
- Enhanced frequency and time synchronisation
- Better interference cancelation / utilisation
- Higher order modulation and better coding
- Transmit and receive simultaneously
- More resilient to channel estimation error
- Better use of highly fragmented spectrum
- A much better radio resource management
- Multi cell operation
- Cooperative transmission in uplink and downlink
- More antennas (larger MIMO)
- Separation control and data plane
- Designed for small cells
- A more suitable MAC protocol for small cell
- Much higher energy efficient
- Enable new services
- Scalable for various traffic requirements
- AND more!
Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

Simplified air interface capacity equation

Pj ,k

k
C Wi log 1
P

i
int erference N 0

More Spectrum
Carrier Aggregation
Full-duplex radio
Cognitive Radio
Dynamic Spectrum Sharing
Non-orthogonal transmission
More Antennas (Large MIMO)
Multi-cell Cooperation
Coordinated Scheduling
3D Beam forming
Interference cancelation / utilization
Higher order modulation

Higher capacity to be delivered by a combination of several


techniques AND densification of network (Small Cells)

24

An Opportunity to Rethink the Mobile Business


New air interface
Spectrum & radio frequency
Millimetre wave
New NW architecture
Intelligent & adaptive network

Rethinking spectrum allocation


Dynamic Allocation
Spectrum sharing
Licensed & unlicensed operation
Integrated NW & services
(Mobile+ Broadcast/Multicast)

5G
Business
Model
New business models
Network sharing
New revenue models
B2C, B2B, B2B2C, C2C
Utility service type operation

Perception of infinite capacity


for users
Quality of Experience (Latency &
Reliability)
New services, e.g. Device 2 device

Lowering TCO (cost per bit / km2)


Greener telecommunications
Increasing life time of the products
(delivering technology through SW)

5G success depends not only the technology but also rethinking


business models, policies and economics of radio spectrum regulation
Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

25

5G & Spectrum
Supplementary Spectrum
Core Spectrum

5G

5G
2G, 3G, 4G
Cell Size (m)
Speed (Gb/s)*

10-100

1-10

5G (?)
Bandwidth (GHz)
Frequency Band

BW: <100

1GHz

BW: 100+

BW: 100+

3GHz

30GHz

Licensed
Best use of low (below 6Ghz) & high frequencies (mmWave) - Sub
6GHz as core spectrum, mmWave (10-100 GHz) for ultra dense
access & backhaul, Supplementary Services
Ideally 100+ MHz channel bandwidth
Dynamic Spectrum Allocation
Coordinated Shared Access
Use of temporal & local availability of spectrum
Carrier Aggregation

60GHz

90Ghz

Unlicensed / Soft Licensed


Licensed

Unlicensed

Shared

Spectrum remains a challenge for 5G and for the wireless industry


Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

26

5G Standardization & 3GPP Release Evolution


R99
2000

CDMA

3G/ HSPA+

4G / LTE
Dec 08

OFDMA

Dec 09

3G: Started in 1989, standards in 1999, commercial in 2003


4G: Started in 2000, standards in 2008, commercial in 2011
5G: Standardisation 2016, commercial readiness in 2020+

LTE A
Mar 10

R12

LTE B(?)
Sep 14

Unlicensed LTE, ....

Sep 15(?)

R14

Higher Order Modulation,


D2D, MTC+, CA +, ...

R13

Jun 13

(?)

Dr Shahram G Niri, July 2014

5G

New
2016 (?) Waveform
27

The No Cell Network

Source: China Mobile Research

Rethink the Architecture: Network-Centric to User-Centric

5G Architecture (METIS)
Amazingly Fast scenario

Local break out & Distributed mobile core


functions
Accelerated content delivery
Tech. Dependent

high data rates & network capacities

Ultra-Dense Networks (UDN)


ISD about 10 m
>= 1 radio nodes per room

D2D, MMC (Massive Machine Comm.), Moving


Networks (MN), UDN Ultra-reliable Comm. (URC)

C-RAN +
Mobile Core Distributed Functions
(incl. optional local breakout or CDN)

C-RAN

D2D / URC
CoMP

MMC

Massive
MIMO

Internet

MN
UDN

Macro radio node*


Small cell radio node*, e.g.
micro, (ultra-)pico, femto

Aggregation Network (local, regional, national)

Note: Indoor cells not shown!


* Only Remote Radio Units (RRUs) assumed.

Source: METIS

Centralized
or
distributed?

Mobile Core
Centralized
Functions
+ OAM
Wireless access
Wireless fronthaul
Wired fronthaul
Wired backhaul
Internet access

Concluding Remarks
5G will consist of a combination of techniques &
technologies
5G will change the system architecture, especially the RAN
A much denser network (small cells) will be key to 5G
design
Spectrum remains a challenge for the wireless industry;
spectrum sharing will be critical
A greater degree of network sharing may be needed in 5G
5G success depends rethinking business models, policies
and economics of radio spectrum regulation

Q&A

Thank You!