states, poorly controlled land or maritime borders, or areas within otherwise

viable states to which the central governments authority does not extend (Rand
Corporation 2006).
Many similar definitions have been offered, ranging across both ends of the spectrum
RAND attempts to cover; they are territories in which no central government exists (failed
states or states engaged in civil/tribal war), they are spaces within a state where the
government does not maintain a strong presence or control.
This spectrum, however, is far too broad. It asserts that strong governments with
internal territories where state authority is challenged are equivalent to failed states where
armed groups engage in open conflict for control and no centralized government exists to
oppose them. While operationally we may approach these two scenarios differently, the two
definition model of governed/ungoverned forces leaders and scholars to deftly examine and
treat these situations differently. From the perspective of the researcher, strategist, and policy
writer, the work toward understanding and resolving conflict and increasing territory stability by
providing leaders proper recommendations depends on proper framing of the problem. What is

John A. Bertetto September 16, 2014

On 23 July 2014, Isaac Lara wrote a piece that appeared in the Kennedy School Review
titled Crime Square: How Advances in Criminal Justice Policy Can Improve Public Safety in New
York City. Mr. Lara suggests that reductions in crime may come via Place Theory, and suggests
a three-pronged approach: (1) increasing visibility by reducing overgrowth, increasing lighting,
and adding windows to structures that permit observation; (2) repairing or removing public
eyesores such as garbage and graffiti; and (3) installing public amenities such as benches and
water fountains.
Place Theory and the focus on the physical environment are necessary components of
successful crime-reduction policy. While the combined effects of the aforementioned threepronged approach can assist in increasing security, caution must be paid that policy writers do
not conflate necessary strategic components for comprehensive strategy. In order to be
effective, crime-reduction policy must describe a larger strategic vision, incorporating successful
components like Place Theory into it. In order to define this larger strategic vision, policy writers
must consider three critical issues: understanding complexity, managing influence, and
delivering appropriate responses. Taken together, these components afford policy writers and
residents the best opportunity for meaningful increases in local security.
Understanding Complexity
Police officers operate within a complex, opensystem environment. Consider a
neighborhood within the city of New York. The system is complex in that action taken by
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individuals or groups (a gang shooting) within the neighborhood affect how others in the
neighborhood behave (travelling in groups rather than alone, remaining indoors after dark). The
system shows emergence or the ability to create change without input from outside the system
(formation of block clubs or citizen patrols). The system is open as the actions of external
systems can influence their behavior (increased police presence can suppress criminal activity,
so more residents remain outside after dark).
Policy writers and law enforcement must understand how each action taken affects the
intended recipient and how the recipients likely response will cascade across the system. For
example, Street Gang A is engaged in illegal narcotics sales, and the abatement of the selling of
these drugs has become a priority for local residents. However, Gang A may be aligned with
Gang B. The two are allies to counter the threat of Gang C a much larger gang. Significant
police action against Gang A may serve to embolden Gang C, resulting in violence against a
now weaker Gang B. Or it may embolden Gang B to take violent actions, as they feel
threatened by decreased size. The time investment required for this level of understanding may
be intensive, but failing to sense this complexity when implementing policy or an intervention
may not deliver intended reductions in crime and instead decrease local security.
Managing Influence
Complex systems are powered by relationships, and relationships are affected by both
direct action and influence. The second order effects and even third order effects of direct
action by law enforcement are influences. Understanding influence allows both law enforcement
and crime-reduction policy writers to do a couple of very useful things. First, when the
relationships within a system are understood, these second and third order effects of direct
action can be anticipated, enabling law enforcement to think deeper about operations. A
relevant strategic question becomes How is this direct action likely to affect the target and
influence the system? Operations, then, can be nuanced or outright crafted to exert specific
influence on the system as a whole.
Second, by understanding this influence, law enforcement and policy leaders can
determine who can most effectively apply this influence to achieve the intended outcome. Law
enforcement is only one tool of public policy and often not the best tool. Crime-reduction
policy writers must integrate the tools at their disposal with their understanding of individuals
within the community, so that the best source of influence can be brought to bear. Two
Degrees of Association (funded by the National Institute of Justice and implemented by the
Chicago Police Department) and the Group Violence Reduction Strategy (funded by the
National Network for Safe Communities) are excellent examples of understanding and applying
influence.
Delivering Appropriate Responses
The path to increased security does not always come from increasing the security
apparatus itself. To most effectively address crime, policy writers must (1) conduct a thorough
environmental analysis, (2) identify those conditions that contribute to crime and insecurity, and
(3) address the needs identified. To ensure a thorough assessment, a framework with specific
components that span the breadth of governance should be employed. This may include, but is
not limited to: school attendance rates, graduation rates, unemployment rates, access to health

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care and social services, sanitation services, electricity and water delivery, and community
infrastructure (roads, parks, vacant buildings, vacant lots) in addition to law enforcement
service.
The multi-variant conditions that contribute to increased crime must remain on the radar
of policy writers, and policy should depend upon collaboration with other civic and nongovernmental service providers to present a whole-of-government approach. This, of course,
does not mean that law enforcement remains exempt from participation in programs aimed at
reducing these conditions. However, larger civic organization must remain the hub of effective
crime control policy in order to facilitate inter-agency cooperation. Concurrently, layers of
bureaucracy between civic and social service delivery must be flattened for quicker request
delivery.
Conclusion
Crime and lack of security remain continuous struggles for many urban communities and
their residents. In order to craft effective strategies, policy writers cannot view interventions as
independent efforts with independent outcomes. Rather, they must understand the nature of
complexity. Strategies affect not only their intended targets but others within the system as
well. Crime-reduction policy should employ strategies and operations that deliver not only
immediate demonstrable results but also exert specific influence on the system as a whole. The
use of influence should be considered by all parties participating in crime abatement.
Law enforcement may not always be the most influential tool, and this limitation must
be understood. Law enforcement must continue to conduct its core mission competencies
patrol, investigations, and arrests and stay engaged with overall crime-reduction policy
efforts; however, crime policy writers should remain cognizant of law enforcements limitations
and ensure that those service providers most appropriate for addressing the conditions that can
lead to crime become decisively engaged.
The problem of crime and the conditions that create it are complex. It should be
expected that the effort to reduce crime and those conditions be equally complex.

The thoughts, opinions, and strategies described here are the original work of the author and
are not intended to represent or speak on behalf of the Chicago Police Department, its policies,
or its strategies.

John A. Bertetto is a sworn member of the Chicago Police Department.

His current areas of study and work include criminal street gangs, social
network analysis, and asymmetric threat mitigation. He is the author of
Counter-Gang Strategy: Adapted COIN in Policing Criminal Street Gangs,
Countering Criminal Street Gangs: Lessons from the Counterinsurgent
Battlespace, Designing Law Enforcement: Adaptive Strategies for the
Complex Environment, and Toward a Police Ethos: Defining Our Values
as a Call to Action. Officer Bertettos most recent research article
Reducing Gang Violence through Network Influence Based Targeting of
Social Programs has been accepted to the Industry & Government Track
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of the 2014 Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) annual

conference, a conference with a 20% acceptance rate. Officer Bertetto has
worked street patrol, organized crime, and research and development
assignments. His applied research projects have led to collaborative
partnerships with students and faculty at USMA West Point, George
Mason University, and the University of Maryland. He is one of the
primary designers and the law enforcement SME behind the GANG social
network analysis software, which has been featured in Popular Science,
Governing, and on MITs technology blog, as well as profiled on ABC
and BBC news. Officer Bertetto holds a Master of Science degree from
Western Illinois University and a Master of Business Administration
degree from St. Xavier University.

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