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UNIV+RSITI
TEKNOLOGI
PETRONAS

COURSE

SMB3O23
I EAB2123- PROBABILITY
& STATISTICS

DATE

16 MAY2008(FRIDAY)

TIME

3.00PM- 6.00PM (3 hours)

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INSTRUCTIONS
TO CANDIDATES

1.

AnswerFIVE(5) out of SIX(6) questions

fromthe QuestionBooklet.

2.

BeginEAGHansweron a newpagein the AnswerBooklet.

3.

lndicateclearlyanswersthatare cancelled,
if any.

4.

Whereapplicable,
showclearlystepstakenin arrivingat the solutions
and
indicate
ALL assumptions.

5.

Do notopenthisQuestion
Bookletuntilinstructed.

Note '.

There are SIXTEEN (16) pages in this Question Booklet

Includingthe coverpageand appendices.
l t.

Graphpaperwill be provided.

iii.

FormulaeBookletwill be provided.
U n i -v e rs i ti

Teknol oqi

P E TR ON A S

SMB3023/ EAB2123
1.

a.

A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a mean

resistance
of 48 ohmsand a standarddeviationof 2.5 ohms.Findthe
probability
thata randomsampleof 64 of theseresistors
willhavea
i.

meanresistance
at least45 ohms,
[4 marksJ

ii.

meanresistance
between4l.S and4g.3ohms,and
[4 marks]

iii. totalresistance
not morethan3040ohms.
[4 marksJ

b-

A recentsurveyof 1000individuals
indicated
that39.6%of the people
surveyedwill votefor the currentgovernmentin the upcomingefection
in DreamCountry.

l.

Gonstructa 99o/oconfidenceintervalfor the true proportionof

peoplethat will vote for the currentgovernmentin the upcoming
election.
[5 marks]
Use the confidenceintervalin part (bxi) to test the hypothesis
thatthe proportionof peoplethat votefor the currentgovernment
is not 4oo/o.
C 1

nef 1rv1'1' '

62

[3 marks]

SMB3023/ EAB 2123

2.

a.

Trafficalong a certaincity is beingstudied.The daily traffic level is

ratedas eitherof low,medium,or high,depending
on how manycars
/+awI

traversqthestreetin a day. The probability

that an accidentoccurred
duringthe day is 0,05.0.20 and 0.90for low,medlumor hightraffic
leVels,respectively.
The probabilitythat the trafficlevetwill be low on
any given day is twice the probability
that it will be medium.The
probabilitythat the trafficlevelwill be mediumis twice the probability
that it willbe high.
i.

what is the probabilitythat the trafficteveris rowon a randomly

selectedday?
[4 marks]
what is the probability
that accidentswiil occuron a randomty
selectedday?
[4 marks]

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SMB3023/ EAB2123

2.

b.

residential
districtsA, B andC as
A toll bridgeservesthreesuburban
of eachday,the Urage
shownin FigureQ2b.Duringpjglgrs
volumesof vehiculartrafficfromthe threedistrictsare 2,3, and 4
peakhourtraffic
Assume,that-the
vehiclesper minute,respectively.
from each districtand the total peak hour traffic at the toll bridgeis a
Poissonprocess.
\___-/
/l"ll-ttd

FIGUREQ2b
Find the expected number of vehicles at the toll bridge in
1 minute.
[3 marks]
Determinethe probabilitythat morethan2 vehicleswill crossthe
bridgein 1 minute

il.

[4 marks]

Find the probability tn"t the time interval between two

consecutive
carsthat crossthe bridgeis lessthan 20 seconds.
[5 marks]

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SMB3023/ EAB2123
3.

a.

The article "Hydrogeochemical

Characteristics
of Groundwaterin a
. Mid-WesternCoastal Aquifer System" presentsmeasurementsof
variouspropertiesof shallowgroundwaterin a certainaquifersystem
(in
in Kor@.Followingare the measurements
of electricalconductivity
per centimetre)
for 23 samples.
microsiemens

plotand describeits features.

Constructa stem-and-leaf
[6 marks]
By comparingthe meanand median,whichmeasureof central
locationis preferred?Explain.
[4 marks]
iii.

to describethe abovedata?Explain.
ls a histogramappropriate
[2 marks]

SMB3023/ EAB 2123

b.

A project is described by the simple activity network shown in

FIGUREQ3b below, consistingof directedbranchesrepresenting
the beginningor terminationof
activities,and nodes representing
activities.
activitiesand are scheduledto
ActivitiesA and B are independent
at day 0. Node"a"representscompletionof both
startsimultaneously
activitiesA and B, and node"b" representscompletionof the project.

ActivityC can start only when both A and B are completed.All

A jurations (in days)requiredfor the respectiveactivitiesare normal
u '(,/ ,/'
randomvariablesas definedin eachof the branchesin FIGUREQ3b.
---.At node"a",activityC is scheduledto startat day 60; howeverif there
is a delay,it cannotstartuntil15 days beyondits scheduledstarting
date.

,.::vtoe2

o^-*ol,*{
o"- w6, z s ' )
B

Day 60

D B-N (4 5,fi \
fvu+

-l " to

( + tsd" ss)

Completion
day 150

t],

FIGUREQ3b
that
Findthe probability
i.

r
activityC will starton schedule,/i:p.,
60 days afterthe starting

dateof the project.

[3 marks]
ii. the projectwill be completedon time i".Jt50 days afterthe
\-/
startingdate.
r

[5 marks]

SMB3023/ EAB2123
4.

The averagewall thicknessof two-litrepolycarbonate

bottlesis 4.0 mils.A
qualitycontrolengineertakes7 samplesof two-litrepolycarbonate
botfles
from two types of bottles:type A and type B; and measurestheir wall
:
thickness(in rni!s).The resultsare

a, oLt:SI

a.

It is desiredto test the averagethicknessof type A botilesbasedon

thesehypotheses:
H o :1 t : 4 . 9 a g a in s tHr : p * 4 . 0
shoufd a / -test be used to test Ho? lf so, performthe test at g5%
levelof confidence.
lf not,explain.
[7 marks]

b.

Constructa box plotfor wallthicknessof the type B botfles.

[5 marks]

c.

At 957olevelof confidence,
is it reasonabte
to concludethatthe mean
wallthickness
of bothtypesof polycarbonate
bottfesare the same?
Explainyourresults.
[8 marks]

SMB3023/ EAB 2123

1
The followingdata were collectedon B lung cancer patientswhere .r
measuresthe numberof yearsthe patientsmokecigarette(or any formof
subjective
evaluation
of the extent
nicotineproduct)andy is the physician's
of fungdamageon a scaleof 0 to 100.

x (years)

25

35

22

l5

48

39

42

3l

ry -tfl

y (0-100)

55

60

50

30

t)

70

71

55

3X- t>

An analysisof varianceis conductedusing a statisticsoftwarepackage

in TABLEQ5.
andthe outputis displayed
TABLE Q5

The reoression
eouationis
v=21.228+1.230x
Predictor

Coef

SE Coef

Constant

21.228
1.230

9.442
0.280

2.248
4.397

S = 8 .1 7 1 6 9 R - souared=

Analvsisof Variance
Df
Source
Regression
ResidualError
Total
a.

1
6
7

SS

pvalue
0.066
0.005

R- s q u a r e d ( a d i) = 0 . 7 2 4
MS

1290.84 1 9 . 3 3 1
400.66 66.777
1691.50
1290.84

pvalue
0.005

Sketch scatter plot for given pairs of data point and also plot the
line.
estimatedregression
[4 marks]

SMB3023/ EAB2123
b.

Estimatethe predictedphysicianscores, on the extent of lung

damage,for two patientswho havesmokinghabitsof 20 and40 years
respectively.
[3 marks]

c.

Obtaina 95 % confidence
intervalfor the trueslope /.
[5 marks]

d.

Estimatethe coefficient
(R2).Discussbrieflyon the
of determination
valueobtained.
[3 marks]

e.

Conduct a hypothesistest on the significanceof the slope at

levelof significance
a = 0.05,
[5 marks]

SMB3023/ EAB2123
6.

designwas conductedto investigatethe lifetime

A two factorexperimental
The two factorsare A (design)and
of a componentbeingmanufactured,
Two levels((+)and (-)) of eachfactorare considered.
B (costof material).
witheachcombination
oTdesignand
are manufactured
Threecomponenis
material,and the totallifetimemeasured(in hours)is as shownin TABLE
Q6.

::
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Totallifetime
components

A v< rg-?.

(in hours)

40. b7

qL)

118

a.

'

33
3, v
=--i-/?o, / y - -

oh

rr

ff
f

A two way analysisof variancewas performedto estimatethe effects

.l

of designand materialexpenseon the componentlifetime.Complete

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the followingANOVATABLE QGaby answeringthe corresponding

ques ti ons .U s eq= 0 . 0 5 .
TABLE Q6a

DF

,/"

SS

MS

A (Design) 1

341.33

341.33

B (Material) 1

20t,99

21t,"9

7s,33

lnteraction 1

180

180

6t.l ,2B (

Error

l0

28

Total

11

Source

' 1,1L

fo,os.t,to

P-value

i:')

10

z 'b
{t

I
0

:.8

q l o. 6b

ty-t- =

l D -t

7
>0

SMB3023/ EAB2123

t.

Determinethe Errordegreeof freedom,SSs,SSrot"r,

MSs and
MSerror.

,.."
ii.
iii

V marksl
the F statisticsfor B (material)
and interaction.
Calculate
,

[2 marks]
Find the P-value for each sources A, B and interaction
(youmaywriteyouranswerin intervalform).

[4 marks]
iv. Basedon your resultsin part (a)(iii),what conclusions
can you
drawfromthe factorialexperiment?
lz -vatvt+
r o ' L l-

b.

[2 marks]

1 d
H,

*h +

cftc+

of

a// fqc-a-o. ;g

to the lifetimeof a component.

lndicatewhicheffectsare significant
A, 8, Ag

c.

s3ntpzta+)

[2 marks]

Writethe leastsquarefittedmodelusingonlythe significant

sources.
[3 marks]

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- END OF PAPER-

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