Iceland volcano: why a repeat of the 2010 flight chaos is unlikely

Geologist Andy Hooper explains why the chances of a huge eruption of the Brarbunga volcano in
Iceland and massive disruption of air travel are low

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The Eyjafjallajkull volcanic eruption in 2010, which shut down much of Europes airspace for six days.
Photograph: Arctic-Images/Getty Images
The heightened seismic activity at the Brarbunga volcano in Iceland, which began on 16 August,
shows no sign of abating. The Icelandic Met Office has issued an orange flight warning, the second
highest alert on its scale. This means Brarbunga, which is part of a large volcano system underneath
the several hundred metre thick ice of the Vatnajokull glacier, is showing escalating unrest with
increased potential of eruption.

A small subglacial eruption is thought to have occurred on 23 August, causing the alert to be elevated
temporarily to red, but the subsequent lack of any signs of melted ice revealed this to be a false alarm.

While there is a remote possibility of a huge eruption, which would have impacts far beyond Iceland,
this is unlikely, and we should also not see any repeat of the massive airspace closure in Europe in 2010,
the biggest since the second world war, following the eruption of Eyjafjallajkull volcano.

The locations of earthquakes and the movement of GPS instruments installed around Brarbunga show
that a vertical sheet of magma has been growing in a northeasterly direction at several kilometres
depth, and has now reached well beyond the ice cap.

This type of activity is not unusual in Iceland, which has around 30 active volcanoes. There are eruptions,
of various magnitudes, roughly every three years on average as the European and North American

tectonic plates move apart from each other at two centimetres a year, stretching the crust. So it is
entirely possible that Bardarbunga may not erupt at all for the foreseeable future.

The arrival of new magma around Brarbunga is relaxing this stretching, and creating new crust.
Whether the magma continues to the surface depends on how much the crust is currently stretched,
and how much more magma is supplied.

If magma does make it through to the top of the crust, this could now occur in an area free of ice, which
would not lead to a major ash-producing eruption. This is because when magma erupts under ice, it
melts the ice and the interactions between the liquid water and magma fragments the molten rock to
make ash. Volcanic ash is fragmented magma.

If an eruption occurs beneath the ice cap, however, there is still a matter of hundreds of metres of ice to
melt through before any ash can reach the atmosphere. Although this can happen in a matter of hours
in the right circumstances. The more immediate effect would be large floods from the meltwater, with
potential risk to human life. The authorities in Iceland have therefore evacuated hundreds of people
from the highlands north of the Vatnajkull glacier.

Despite the potential risks, however, there are several reasons to believe that a repeat of the airspace
closure seen after the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull is unlikely. That eruption resulted in planes being
grounded for almost a week, stranding millions of travellers and costing the industry a massive sum.

The ash in that case was especially fine, allowing it to stay aloft for longer. Moreover, the weather at the
time also conspired against civil air authorities and travellers, with dry air and consistent northerly winds
causing the ash to spread deep into Europe.

But the most significant reason not to fear a repeat of the events of 2010 is that there is no longer an
aviation zero tolerance policy to ash. This means that aircraft are now allowed to fly in areas
containing low particle concentrations, and various efforts such as a collaboration of 26 European
institutes called Futurevolc, mean that models of ash concentration have been much improved since
2010.

To be sure, there is a small chance of a much more significant eruption. Brarbunga has had huge
eruptions in the past, bigger even than the 1783-84 Laki eruption that led to a long-lived fog over much
of Europe, which contributed to extreme low winter temperatures and many deaths. However, the
frequency of such large eruptions is low separated by hundreds of years on average.

That said, the timing of the next big one may have been brought forward by the shrinking of the ice caps
due to climate change. The associated reduction of pressure in the mantle beneath the crust may have
caused magma generation rates to approximately double over the last century. But the picture here is
not 100% clearcut as falling pressure in the crust may may mean that more magma freezes there
without erupting.

The key issue influencing whether Brarbunga will erupt in the coming days is how much the crust is
currently stretched at deeper depths, and how much magma will continue to rise. Despite all the risks,
including flooding, it is unlikely we will witness a huge eruption and a repeat of the travel chaos of 2010.

Dr Andy Hooper is professor of geodesy and geophysics at the University of Leeds and visiting researcher
at Delft University of Technology