THE SIRISENA SURGE: WHY

MAHINDA IS STILL WAY AHEAD

by Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

- on 11/22/2014

Two cheers then for Maithripala

Sirisena whose act of resistance and rebellion is truly heroic. Why cheer at
all? And why two cheers instead of three? Hearty cheers are entirely
warranted because Maithripala Sirisena has produced a Black Swan event;
a real game changer.
Having argued in the print and electronic media for years that Ranil
Wickremesinghe should not be the Oppositions presidential candidate, that
a viable Opposition candidate must be one whose profile would cut into the
incumbents monopoly of populist-patriotism, and as someone who has
commended Maithripala Sirisena on many of my fortnightly TV shows, I am
delighted at his candidacy. However, I am unconvinced about his electoral
prospects and platform.
Maithripala Sirisena has rendered the Presidential election a real race

instead of the walkover it would have been with Ranil Wickremesinghe as

Mahindas opponent.
More importantly he has reintroduced competition and balance into a
hitherto unipolar system.
Even if he loses the Presidential election, he would hopefully have founded
a dissident SLFP; a centrist alternative to the populist neo-conservatism of
the Rajapaksa regime.
Thereby he would have made feasible the prospect of defeating the
government at the parliamentary election or at a referendum.
Thats the upside; now for the downside. For starters the joint Oppositions
widely-rumored plan to defeat the Budget is short-sighted. This Budget was
intentionally populist in content and character, and any defeat in the
legislature will permit the President to credibly depict the joint opposition as
having deadlocked the process which would have permitted material
benefits to accrue to the public. As the public did when Congress gridlocked
President Obama, public opinion will swing against the parliamentarians
and in favor of the incumbent. He will then prorogue parliament, hold the
Presidential election, and translate his victory into a renewed dominance of
the legislature.
That isnt even the main weakness of the Sirisena challenge. The flaws in
the joint opposition platform were all on display at the inaugural media
conference. Maithripala Sirisena himself fared well, pitching it more or less
right. Then it all began to go retro and sag, with Rajitha Senaratne taking
too much time with his political autobiography one would have thought
him the candidate rather than Sirisenafollowed by a prolonged and selfjustificatory lamentation by CBK.
This poses the question as to whether Maithripala will be allowed to offer a
better future for the country a Maithripaalanayaor whether the
message is that of a return to the golden era of the Bandaranaikes, and
especially of CBK. This is of no small consequence. The utterly fundamental

fact that Mr. Sirisenas loquacious companions at the media conference

(who should have left time for Vasantha Senanayake and Arjuna Ranatunga
some speaking time) failed to grasp is this: the vast majority of this country
clearly and emphatically prefer the flawed but peaceful present, to the past
of war and weakness as a nation. Simply put, if the choice is the flawed
present and memories of the past, the voters much prefer the Mahinda
Rajapaksa presentsiblings and all to the Chandrika past. The country was
ripped apart and the State was weak then. We are at peace and much
stronger now. That is something that neither CBK nor Rajitha seem to
understand. This was the fatal flaw of Sirimavo Bandaranaike tooshe just
did not get the point that in the public mind, even JR Jayewardenes
presidency seemed vastly better than the memories of her glorious years at
the helm.
Maithripala Sirisena must foreground himself and not CBK. He must seem a
kinder gentler Mahinda Rajapaksa, just as Clinton seemed a kinder gentler
Reagan and Tony Blair a kinder gentler Thatcher, who would consolidate the
positives of their formidable predecessors, while moving forward, not back
to the future.
Compounding these weaknesses is the very weakest point in the
Maithripala Sirisena platform: his promises to abolish the executive
Presidency in one hundred days and to appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe as his
PM. In the first place there isnt a shred of evidence in the form of a public
opinion poll that the majority of voters wish the executive Presidency
abolished. Thus Maithripalas campaign seeks to convince the voters of two
things, not just the oneturn away from Mahinda Rajapaksa and endorse a
radical, potentially risky dismantling of an entire system. This would turn
the Presidential election into a double referendumon Mahinda Rajapaksa
who dominates the political landscape and on the executive presidency
which the masses have become accustomed to over for decades. Now
thats a tall order. In a conservative society thats far too much of a

psychological change to expect in a short time and in one fell swoop. It is

too much to swallow. Athureliya Rathana and Champika Ranawakes
suggestion of a slimmed down Presidency is much more palatable.
As if this werent bad enough, there is Maithripalas pledge to make Ranil
the PM. Why should anyone vote for Maithripala if he is not going to be the
president after a hundred days while Ranil is going to be PM? What happens
to the man the people have voted for, after the act of abolition? Since the
Prime Ministership is going to be the power center after the Executive
presidency is dismantled, would the people wake up to find they had
unwittingly elected Ranil as their leader? If not, and if Maithripala is going to
the Executive PM, then what happens to Prime Minister Ranil?
There are plenty of reasons to vote for Maithripala if he were running for the
presidency, pure and simple. He may lead the country better, if only
because Mahinda Rajapaksa has allowed himself to be a poster boy for his
family clan and their thuggish and crooked courtiers. But why should
anyone vote for Maithripala only to find that Ranil and Chandrika are back
in power, having done what they tried to but failed to do in 2005, colluding
against Mahinda? Are we to move forward or backwards? If the voters sense
a risk that it will be a ride back on a time machine; that Maithripala will be
used, dominated and discarded by Ranil and Chandrika; that he is just a
front man for them rather than his own man, then the voters will, quite
understandably and even rightly, opt to remain with Mahinda.
Without a clear roadmap, the voters are being asked to opt for something
like chaos and a political vacuum. Right now, the joint oppositions
discourse is a lot of white noise.
Both Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena seem like masks or
human shields for their respective blocs: Mahinda for his avaricious familycentred oligarchy and Maithripala for Chandrika, Ranil and the old guard. Of
these two combinations, the collective Sinhala voter psyche will almost
certainly prefer Mahinda and Gotabhaya to Maithripala, Ranil and CBK.

There is only one way to rectify and thereby save the Maithripala campaign
and the political space he has opened up. Only one way to prevent this
moment from ending up like the Arab Spring, with the Empire striking back
due to the dumbness of the democratic Opposition. That is to bring in Anura
Kumara Dissanayake, Champika Ranawake and Sajith Premadasa sharp
young personalities and compelling speakers, none of whom are
yesterdays men to the centre of the policy process, the campaign
planning and the head table, flanking Maithripala. Mr. Sirisena is a brave
and decent man; possibly our last hope. He deserves better than to be
overshadowed or drowned out by his current companions and patrons who
represent and recall the failures of a past from which Mahinda Rajapaksa, to
his lasting credit, rescued the country.
Posted by Thavam