Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
ASSIGNMENT:
CORPORATE FINANCE
Instructor
: CGSVN00015828
Class
: MBAOUM0913 K10A
Course
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION: .......................................................................................................................... 3
I.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
II.
OUTLOOK ................................................................................................................................. 10
III.
IV.
FINANCIALS ............................................................................................................................. 21
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
V.
VI.
REFERENCE: ............................................................................................................................ 32
Page 3
M&E business: this segment focuses on installing the interior systems of a building,
including electrical wiring/control panels, air ducts, air conditioners, sprinklers, etc. About
of the cost of constructing a large office or apartment building comprises M&E expenditure.
Note that REE also does this type of contracting work for larger projects, including both the
Ho Chi Minh city (HCMC) and Hanoi airports. REE holds the dominant share of M&E
contracting work done on locally owned projects (when foreign firms such as those from
Korea or Japan construct a building, they often use foreign M&E contractors such as Kumho
E&C).
Reetech air conditioning: this manufacturing business was somewhat of a natural
outgrowth from its M&E business; REE now installs industrial air conditioners in buildings
that are either made by itself, or by its competitors such as Daikon, LG, Samsung and Funiki
(a local brand), etc. In addition to its industrial air conditioners, REE also sells air
conditioners for home use. Reetech air conditioners are priced at about 30% below
comparable products made by foreign manufacturers, and the brand has a market share
ofabout 7% in Vietnam (although it has a 17% market share in the south, with negligible
sales in the north).
The M&E and Reetech businesses can be considered REEss traditional "core businesses",
although we point out below that it also has a new core competency, i.e. investing the
companyss considerable annual cashflow. The M&E and Reetech businesses employ about
860 people.
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Most of the tenants of these buildings are local companies which aspire to have a more
Western office environment that meets global standards This is a stark contrast to typical
Vietnamese grade C and self-owned office buildings (such as Mobile World Group, a tenant
of the E-town building), the back offices of financial services companies (banks/insurance
companies) as well as the plain offices of second-tier foreign firms that cannot afford the
pricey downtown office spaces that are usually occupied by international banks like HSBC
or high-end consumer companies like LVMH.
REE purchased most of the land, on which its office buildings are located, in the 1990s at
low prices. For that reason, non-cash costs (i.e. depreciation) only comprise 23% of the
overheads for this business line, and REEss office rental business generates a net profit
margin of 47%. During 2009-2012, the office rental business generated the smallest fraction
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This business has been very successful, when judged either by the cash flow it generates for
the company or by the high occupancy rates of its buildings. Thus, REE would like to
increase the number of office buildings that it owns and leases. Since it has exhausted its land
bank, REE would need to acquire new projects or enter into JVs with other companies to
accomplish this (which would reduce net margins, as property prices have risen significantly).
The grade B office building market
Grade B office buildings in Ho Chi Minh City, and REEss office building in particular,
have only been moderately affected by the deflation of Vietnams real estate bubble, which
peaked in 2010. Grade B office rents have remained in a stable range of US$16-19/sq
m/month despite a surge in supply. At the peak of the bubble, grade B rentals were as high as
US$25. In contrast, grade A rents soared as high as US$80 at the peak of the bubble before
crashing to about US$35 at present (typical grade A rents around the bubble period were
probably closer to US$65, but a few transactions took place at prices as high as US$80).
The main impact of the crash in upper-end real estate prices (but not in rents for grade B
offices) for REE has been the reduction of construction activity, which had in turn dampened
the demand for the companys M&E contracting business (which is described in the next
section) - although the slowdown in office and apartment building construction was offset to
some extent by large government projects, such as the Hanoi Airport.
4. M&E business
M&E is still REEss core business, and still makes up about 59% of its revenues, up from
33% in 2009, thanks to some large-scale government projects. REEss reputation in this
field has been built up over 30 years, although it now faces growing competition from foreign
players such as Kumho and Kinden. REE still has a strong share of the market for buildings
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That said, REE has a reasonable pipeline of large, government-related projects, for which it
faces minimal competition, and it has recently entered the Myanmar market by signing an
M&E contract with HAG (HAG:VN) which has a large real estate development project in
downtown Rangoon. REE currently has a VND4,100bn backlog, which is equal to almost 2.5
years of M&E revenue. A typical project takes 1-2 years to complete and in theory, revenues
are booked on a percentage-completion basis - though we understand that REE takes a
conservative approach and tends to book a disproportionate amount of the costs upfront. For
that reason, profits get a modest boost when large M&E projects are completed. Clients
typically pay about of the contract cost upfront when the contract is signed, which can help
mitigate risk. However, some of these large scale projects have an element of currency risk if
the client requires imported M&E equipment, or if REE is paid in a foreign currency for its
services (especially for its more recent Japanese ODA-sponsored airport terminal project,
where REE is paid in JPY)
5. Air conditioner manufacturing
REEss Reetech air conditioners are a mass-market product that competes on price - being
priced about 30% below its competitorss products. The company holds a share of about 7%
of the nations air conditioner market and a share of about 17% in the south (REE does not
have a significant presence in the northern market).
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REE has recently set up a joint venture with Fujitsu to distribute its Generals brand of air
conditioners, which we believe will enable the former to diversify its product portfolio and
compete with international players in Vietnam. As general brand air conditioners are priced
about 15% higher than REEss products, the distribution of these products, which we
estimate generate net margins of 8% for REE, will allow the firm to address a higher pricepoint niche of the market
6. Investing is REE's new core competency
REEss core business and its portfolio of office buildings generate about VND400bnVND500bn in annual cash flow. We understand that REE plans to invest a portion of that
free cash flow in listed and unlisted shares as part of its new core business (REE pays out
about 76% of its free cash flow in the form of dividends to common stock holders). REEss
~VND4, 000bn (US$190m) investment portfolio represents just over half
of the companys total assets. Investments in electricity generators accounted for 69% of
REEss investment portfolio, followed by water (14%), real estate (9%) and coal (5%).
About 60% of its investment portfolio is in listed companies and 40% in unlisted ones.
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The company currently holds 25 investments, including six power companies, three coalmining companies, five water utilities and 11 other companies. It now holds board seats in
PPC, TMP, TBC, NBP, TDW, BOO Thu Duc, Saigon Clean Water Investment, Vietnam
Infrastructure Investment & Development. REE increased its investments in utilities and
coal-mining companies from 46% of its portfolio in 2010 to 74% in 2013. REE is betting on
the liberalization of the electricity (see section 2.1) and coal (see section 2.2) industries. This
year, the company is continuing to gradually ramp up its holdings of utility and coal-mining
stocks, albeit at a slower pace, as the prices of such stocks have increased (thanks in part to
REE itself). REE also seems to favor high-dividend yielding stocks, with high payout ratios,
thereby giving the company more cash to invest and pay dividends to its own shareholders.
Profits from REEss investments (including dividend income and REEss share of profits
from its associates) have been a key driver of the Company overall net profit. In FY13, the
profit derived from these investments accounted for 64% of the companys net profit, up
from 34% in 2009. The contribution from investments towards REEss overall net profit is
poised to rise as its investment portfolio expands going forward - the size of REEss
Investment portfolio grew 46% in 2013 as shown in Figure 17. However, the performance
of REEss investments also seems to have improved. The companys (realized net profit
from investments /investment portfolio value) rose from 3% in 2010 to 16% in 2013, which is
also shown in Figure 17.
The company has an excellent track record of making savvy investments. REE purchased
Sacombank (STB:VN) shares and sold them for a 67% gain in 2010, right before the central
bank started to clamp down on the activities of banks in Vietnam. It also bought Phai Lai
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II. OUTLOOK
1. Electricity price deregulation
About 69% of REEss investment portfolio comprises investments in power generators
which look set to benefit from the deregulation of electricity prices that should lead to an
annual increase of circa 10% in electricity prices for the next 5-6 years. Vietnam's electricity
prices are currently subsidized by EVN and are the lowest in the region. Retail electricity
prices were more than 60% below those in the rest of the region in 2009. Seven electricity
price increases since 2009 have closed the gap somewhat but prices in Vietnam are still about
50% below those in the rest of ASEAN (we calculated the 50%s figure by weighting the
electricity prices in the table below with the GDP of each ASEAN country).
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iii.
Also, note that coal export tariffs were lowered from 20% to 10% in 2012. The tariff cut was
somewhat controversial because the government derives a significant portion of its revenues
from export tariffs and the budget deficit is already 6% of GDP YTD. However, Vinacomin
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The tariff increases in the figure above will enable Sawaco to undertake the major projects
listed below (REEss investments in this sector are primarily in the listed subsidiaries of
Sawaco, which should benefit from large-scale water-infrastructure projects.)
In addition to capacity expansion, the industry has ample room to increase revenues by
improving efficiency. At present, the water loss rate of the system stands at 34% vs. the
average of 24% which would be more typical in other major Asian cities in Thailand, Indonesia
and the Philippines
The attractiveness of Ho Chi Minhs water industry is evidenced by the investments it has
drawn from the Philippines conglomerate, Ayala. Its Manila Water has invested in BOO Thu
Duc (an associate of REE) and Kenh Dong Water indirectly via an investment in Saigon
Water (SII:VN), a listed company which focuses on water projects. In addition, Ayala has also
invested in Hochiminh City Infrastructure Investment Company (CII: VN), a listed company
which focuses on infrastructure projects.
4. Outlook for office leasing business
The outlook for REEs office leasing business hinges on:
a. The prospects for rents and occupancy for grade B office buildings
b. REEs ability to add more buildings to its property investment portfolio, now that its
own land bank has been exhausted.
This second topic will be discussed in more detail in the next section, but we felt compelled to
highlight in advance that REE aims to increase its leasable office space by 30k-50k sq m every
Page 15
new
buildings
came
on
to
the
market.
Page 16
However, unlike the situation in the luxury condominium market, where owners/speculators
have been very reluctant to slash prices in order to move their inventory; as many of the office
building projects were funded by bank loans, landlords slashed rents to attract tenants. Some
players that held out, such as Bitexco (the owner of the iconic Bitexco Financial Tower),
eventually capitulated around 2010 and saw their occupancy rates soar after cutting rents.
We understand that Vincom (VIC:VN) also offered aggressive leasing deals to tenants, though
16% of the office space of its HCMC flagship office building is still vacant. Plunging grade A
rents compelled tenants that previously occupied grade B and grade C buildings to upgrade to
the new premises the examples of this phenomenon that we are most acutely aware of are in
our own industry of securities brokerage. VN Direct (CIMBss local partner in Vietnam),
Maybank Kim Eng, VietCapital Securities, HSC, VP Bank Securities and a few other firms
have all upgraded to more luxurious digs, because of the steep fall in rents. This migration from
mid-range buildings to upper-end buildings also prompted increasing interest in mid-range
office space from companies that previously occupied lower rated premises (note that this
section is about the general demand for grade B office space REEs buildings are sufficiently
attractive that they did not experience a significant migration of its tenants into higher-spec
buildings).
At the same time that lower-end tenants have been upgrading to grade B buildings, a wave of
foreign companies that want to rent mid-range offices is now coming to Vietnam. Two pieces
of statistical data on the latter from commercial real estate broker CBRE have been making the
rounds recently:
a. over half of the demand by CBREs customers for grade B offices comes from foreign
clients, and
b. about 60% of CBREs foreign clients target rents below US$20/sq m. The first statistic
is not so surprising, given that CBRE is an international firm, so it is an obvious first
port of call for foreign companies looking to set up a rep office in Vietnam.
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As for the air conditioning business, the outlook for revenue growth in this segment is subdued
for 2014, but buoyant for 2015. That is because consumer air conditioner sales typically lag
sentiment in the real estate market by about one year, with the real estate market bottoming in
2013. The longer-term outlook is modestly supported by REEss agreement to sell Fujitsuss
Generals brand air conditioners in Vietnam, although we estimate that the margin for this
particular business is only around 8%.
III. SWOT analysis
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A protracted downturn in the real estate market would dent the groups top-line, although it
would have less impact on the bottom line as these segments only contribute less than 20% of
net profit.
3. Delays in electricity and coal price liberalization
There is a risk that the electricity and coal price reforms will not adhere to the planned
schedule. Such a scenario would lead to the depressed share prices of the listed/unlisted
electricity generator and coal-mining companies that comprise 74% of REEs investment
portfolio (or 41% of its total assets).
The liberalization of the electricity industry was already delayed for seven years because of
EVNss interference in the process (such interference was part of efforts to protect its own selfinterests). Although the first phase of liberalization has kicked off, EVN still has considerable
power and there are still disputes over power purchase agreements between EVN and the
independent power producers, including with the IPPs that REE has invested in. Rising coal
prices are also in conflict with EVNss interests, especially at a time when EVN is strapped for
cash and already owes trillions of VND (hundreds of millions of US dollars) to Petrovietnam,
the natural gas supplier, and Vinacomin, the coal supplier.
If EVN were able to impede or delay the increases in the prices it pays for electricity generated
by independent generators or for the coal mined by the listed subsidiaries of Vinacomin, the
profits (and share prices) of those companies are likely to suffer. Given REEss and Ms.
Thanhss track record for savvy investments in the real estate and banking sectors, we are not
overly concerned about this risk. Such concerns are further mitigated by the growing demand
for electricity in Vietnam from the emerging middle class, and more critically, sufficient
electricity supply to sustain the inflow of FDI into high-tech factories.
IV.
FINANCIALS
1. Good cash flow from office leasing and dividends
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Looking at these associate companies, they are typically companies that have high payout
ratios and pay high dividends. In fact, we believe this is REEss investment strategy: investing
in stocks that are undervalued but which pay high dividends
The resulting cash flows from this strategy have enabled REE to invest further and maintain its
own cash dividend of VND1,600/share, which represents a 6.% dividend yield at its current
share price (note that REEss dividend yield has been as high as 14% in recent years).
2. Profits from investments drive earnings growth
The increasing size of REEss investment portfolio has made profits from its
investments/associates the main earnings driver for the group. Over the period of FY11-13,
profits from core businesses and office rental business delivered a CAGR of 10% vs. 68% for
profits from investments, which allowed the company to post a net profit CAGR of 38%.
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REEss investment portfolio has been growing and the individual investments have generally
performed well, which has boosted the companyss earnings.
However, as REE has recently increased its stake in Thac Ba Hydro Power from 38% to 58%,
it will need to consolidate both revenues and earnings from this investment, treating Thac Ba
Hydro Power as a subsidiary from this year onwards.
This consolidation will support REEss revenue growth as well as its earnings growth, but
since hydro companies generally have high cash flows, we believe that REE will also increase
the dividend payout ratio of this now majority-owned subsidiary (such a move will also help
improve its own cash flow). Thac Ba Hydro Power is REE's first investment which passed the
50% threshold, but we expect it to gradually increase its stakes beyond 50% for the other small
companies in its portfolio as this will support its revenue and dividend growth, as well as
earnings growth.
Accounting for the profits from REE's investments under VAS Of the 25 listed and unlisted
companies that REE invested in as at end-2013, 16 of them were accounted for by the equity
method (stakes of 20-49%), and nine were listed in REEss accounts as "short-term
investments" (stakes below 20%) which were held at book value. Also, as mentioned earlier,
one investment will become a consolidated subsidiary this year.
The dividends from short-term investments are recorded as financial income. In our
understanding, although these investments are held at book value, they are subject to
impairment provision charges in the case of a material diminution in their value - which is
more likely for investments in listed stocks rather than unlisted companies.
Regarding REEss investments that are accounted for under the equity method, these generally
adhere to international accounting methods, except for one key difference. The contribution of
profit/loss for an individual investment accounted for by the equity method in Vietnam is
exactly the same under
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The company chose to take VND382bn of financial income via an accelerated recognition of
this negative goodwill in 2Q13, which was recorded in the income statement under the income
from associates item. We believe the company did this for three reasons:
a. The depreciation of the JPY caused PPCss book value to increase from about
VND12,700 at the time REE purchased its stake to about VND15,600 by the end of
1H13, mainly due to the fact that PPC has a heavy JPY-denominated debt burden (and
the depreciation of the JPY caused significant windfall profits for PPC). The resulting
increase in PPCss "negative goodwill" from this investment increased the accounting
profits that could be generated by the accelerated amortization of that negative
goodwill.
b. PPCss share price appreciated sharply in early 2013 because of REEss purchases of
PPC shares and its windfall gain described in the previous point. The increase in PPCss
share price had resulted in the stock trading at a price which was near its book value Page 25
M&E: operating margin is likely to increase from 9% in 2013 to 11% in 2014 as the company
is able to source some key equipment such as electric panels, air ducts, etc., at attractive prices
(the prices of these key inputs are surprisingly volatile, and linked to regional construction
activity, which is "lumpy"). In the companyss 1Q results (2Q2 numbers are not available yet),
the segment's operating margin increased from 10% in 1Q13 to 14% in 1Q14. For the full year,
we expect revenues to grow 12%, thanks to the completion of some large-scale projects
including the large Vietcombank tower and Noi Bai Airport Terminal 2 projects. In 1Q, most
of this segmentss revenue was derived from the large Noi Bai Airport project in anoi. The
company targets a net profit of VND140bn, in line with our forecast of VND144bn. Reetech:
we expect sales and profits to increase by about 40%, driven by the sale of Hitachiss
Generals brand air conditioners. The companyss 2014 business plan calls for a 42% increase
in revenue, but a 108% increase in net profit - implying a fairly significant increase in net
margins. We do not expect such an increase in net margin, and our view is supported by the
fact that this segment's operating margins actually fell modestly from 7% in 1Q13 to 6% in
1Q14.
Office leasing: we expect this segmentss results to be fairly flat this year, given that the
buildings are now more-or-less fully occupied and REE will not realistically be able to raise
rents much, given the current equilibrium of supply and demand in the market.
Investments/associates: we expect profits from associates to fall 50% this year as the PPC
windfall mentioned earlier will not be repeated. In REEss 1Q results, profits from associates
fell 74% as a portion of the PPC gains was booked in 1Q13. This will be discussed in further
detail in the next section, 4.5. This fall in profits from associates in 1Q caused the overall 1Q14
net profit of the company to fall 40% yoy.
Finally, we expect net financial expenses to drop about 56% due to the partial conversion of the
CBs held by Jardine Matheson into common shares. We also expect the company to pay a cash
dividend of VND1,600/share (at the AGM, shareholders approved a minimum VND1,200 per
share dividend).
Below consensus FY14 forecast REE targets 10% growth in sales and 9% decline in net profit,
with the sell-side consensus anticipating that earnings will fall 8% to VND890bn. Our forecast
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TMP has recently kicked off a 36-month project to increase its hydropower generating
capacity from 150MW to 225MW. The cost of the project, VND1,588bn, is 85%
financed with an ODA loan on concessionary terms, including a below-market interest
rate.
BOO Thu Duc is in the planning phases to double its capacity from 300k cubic
metre/day to 600k cubic metre/day.
Quang Ninhss thermal power generating facility ran at well-below full capacity in
2013 because of maintenance issues. However, these issues seem to have been solved
this year and the plant is generating electricity at full capacity.
Saigon Clean Waterss new Thu Duc 3 facility with a capacity of 300k cubic metre/day
will start operations in Nov 2014.
REE has experienced a good amount of volatility in its net margins over the last few years.
The two reasons for REEss volatile net margins are the intrinsically volatile nature of its
investment revenues and the lumpy nature of the profits from REEss M&E business. We have
mentioned previously that the company typically experiences a small jump in earnings when a
major project is completed because REE tends to book its costs and revenues for these projects
conservatively (i.e. a disproportionate share of costs is booked upfront while a disproportionate
share of revenues is booked when the project is completed). For this reason, the undertaking of
large M&E projects can lead to some degree of earnings and net margin volatility for REE.
V. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
We use the sum-of-parts to value REE. We apply the sector comparables to value its M&E and
the air conditioning segments, and the DCF method to value its real estate investments, with
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Air conditioning:
We select the peer group from the Asian emerging market, excluding China. REEss air
conditioning segment is not as profitable as the peer group, coming in below the industry
average. As such, we apply a 40% discount to the industry average in deriving a target P/E of
6x. Given its FY14 net profit of VND43bn, we derive a fair value of VND258bn for REEss air
conditioning segment.
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Valuation summary
We derive a target price of VND32,257 for REE using the sum of its core business, real estate
value, portfolio investment value and net current assets. Given its current share price of
VND27,100 (which offers a potential upside of 19%) and bright growth prospects, we maintain
our Add call on the stock
VI. REFERENCE:
https://vninvestment.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/ree7jul14.pdf
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