03/09/2014

Anna Maria Sri Asih

Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering

Gadjah Mada University

Who Am I
Lecturer at JTMI UGM since 2002
Educational Background:
Bachelor in Electrical Engineering (1995-1999)

Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia

Magister of Management (1999-2001) Gadjah Mada
University, Indonesia
International Master Program on Quality, Safety and
Environment (2006-2007), Otto von Guerricke University of
Magdeburg, Germany
PhD in Industrial & Engineering Sciences (2008-2013),
Swinburne University and Technology, Australia

Research interest:
System Engineering, Operations Research, Tribology in railways

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Course Materials
Basic modeling
Mathematical modeling: overview
Mathematical modeling: deterministic
Deterministic static : LP, NLP, IP
Deterministic dynamic
Mathematical modeling: stochastic
Parameter estimation
Verification and validation

Course Materials
Williams, H.P., 1999, Model Building in Mathematical

Programming, John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Murthy, D.N.P, Page, N.W, and Rodin, E.Y. (1990).

Mathematical Modelling, Pergamon Press, Oxford.

Law, A.M. and Kelton, D.W., 2000, Simulation Modeling

and Analysis, 3rd ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.

INCOSE, 2010, System Engineering Handbook
Other sources

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Evaluation
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.

Weight, %
20

Components
Group assignment
Individual assignment
Mid Exam
Final Exam (compulsory)

20
30
30

85 100

GRADE
A

75 X < 85
65 X < 75
50 X < 65
< 50

B
C
D
E

What is a system ?
An interconnected set of elements that is

coherently organized in a way that

achieves something (Donella H. Meadows,
2008)

A collection of components wherein

individual components are constrained by

connecting interrelationships such that
that system as a whole fulfills come specific
functions in response to varying demands
(IJ Nagrath & M. Gopal, 1990)

A group of interacting, interrelated, or

interdependent elements forming a

complex whole (Dell Zhang, Univ. of
London)

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System Components
Consists of objects called ENTITIES

that have a set of properties called

ATTRIBUTES

ELEMENTS

Attributes can have forms of either

VARIABLES (objects interactions) or

PARAMETERS (intrinsic attributes)

Interactions between objects explain

the STATE and BEHAVIOUR of

system which are important in
achieving the PURPOSE/FUNCTION

INTERCONNECTIONS
FUNCTION /
PURPOSE

System Components
THINK ABOUT THIS:
Can you identify parts?

Pitfalls : no end identification

process due to many sub-elements:
lose sight of the system, e.g. cant see
the forest for the trees

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System Components
THINK ABOUT THIS:
Do the parts affect each other?
Do the parts together produce an
effect that is different from the effect
of each part on its own?

1+1=2?
OR
1+1>2?
OR
1+1<2?

Its easier to learn system elements than about its

interconnections

System Components
THINK ABOUT THIS:
Does the effect, the behavior over time

persist in a variety of circumstances?

At a time, if a frog turns right and catches a fly,
and then turns left and catches a fly, and then
turns backward and catches a fly
THE PURPOSE OF THE FROG ?
Turns right, turns left and the turns backwards ?

Another time, turn left, backward and then right

Catching flies

Purpose are deduced from BEHAVIOR, not from

rhetoric or stated goals

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Everything should be made as simple as possible,

but not simpler. (Albert Einstein)
It is a large, rough
thing, wide and
broad like a rug
It is small,
long and
moving, like a
snake

It is mighty
and firm like
a pillar

System Environment
SYSTEM BOUNDARY

Inputs/
excitations

What the system does

Outputs /
response
s

Control
Feed-forward

How the system

is controlled

Feedback

SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT

CAUSE VARIABLES: e.g. position of accelerator, brake pedal, gear level,

steering wheel, the slope of highway (automobile driving system)
EFFECT VARIABLES: e.g. speed of automobile, the position of
automobile on the highway (automobile driving system)

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Model

Model
REPRESENT / APPROXIMATE the REAL WORLD
Abstraction
Simplification
to describe
Problem Situation

to explain
to predict the characteristics /

structures and/or behavior of a

system (natural or man-made)
Design alternatives:

MODEL
Performance
measure

IMPLEMENTASI

Representativeness
Usefulness
Usability
Cost consideration
Time frame

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Building Model
First question to ask ...
Have I solved this problem before?
If so, do the same think again

Has someone else solved this problem?

Look in textbooks, do a literature search, etc

Dont waste time and money starting from scratch if

someone has already solved the problem unless you
have good reason to believe their model is not
good

Building Model
If its a completely new problem...
Understand the system and its characteristics
Set objective
Model formulation
Validate

Analysis

Adequate? If not revise the model

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Building Model
what we need ...
THEORY
CREATIVITY
SKILL /
EXPERIENCES

REAL
WORLD

MODEL

SYSTEM
APPROACH

Type of model will depend on:

The question that is being asked (the problem

objective)
The level of detail required
The resource available (time, personnel,

computers, etc)

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Good Model
Simple to understand

Goal directed
Easy to control
Complete on important issues
Adaptive and easy to update
Evolutionary

garbage in garbage out

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Building Model
Start simple

use diagram
block-building
Controllable Inputs

Interactions

Performance measure

Uncontrollable Inputs
(Problems parameters)

Analogy : Use similarity

Blood vessels are like highways

The camera is like the eye
A cell is like a factory
Electricity is like flowing water
Iteration : Refine it again and again

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Building Model
System

Experiment with
the actual system

Experiment with
a model of the
system

Physical model

Mathematical
model

Analytical
solution

Simulation

Basic Modelling
Identifikasi masalah
Karakterisasi sistem
Formulasi model (penentuan variabel dan parameter,
estimasi parameter, etc.)
Validasi model konseptual
Design of experiments
Analisis
Validasi output

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System characterization
Open vs closed
White box vs black box
Static vs dynamic
Continuous vs discrete
Deterministic vs stochastic

Open vs closed
Sistem terbuka jika objek di dalam sistem berinteraksi dengan objek di
luar sistem. Sebaliknya disebut sistem tertutup.
Thermal power plant
Sistem terbuka jika asal batubara dianggap objek di luar system yang
mempengaruhi sistem. Jaringan PLN dianggap objek lain yg dipengaruhi oleh
sistem

Tambang
batubara

Sistem

Jaringan PLN

Permintaan Soft drink

Jika satu-satunya variabel yaitu permintaan ke depan hanya dikaitkan dengan
permintaan yg lalu, sistem menjadi tertutup. Jika dikaitkan dengan perubahan
populasi, cuaca dan promosi, sistem terbuka.
Populasi
Cuaca

Sistem

Permintaan soft drink

Promosi

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White box vs Black box

How much a priori information on the system is available
Sistem terbuka tetapi struktur dalam sistem tersebut tidak diketahui, maka
deskripsi ini disebut black box (no a priori information)
estimate the functions probably could be adequate. Use
functions as general as possible to cover all different models.
Sebaliknya jika dapat digambarkan objek-objek di dalam sistem dan atributeatributnya disebut deskripsi white box (all necessary information is available).
if we use the information correctly, the model will behave correctly
complexity

Medicine in human system

Usually the amount of medicine in the blood is an exponentially decaying
function. However, how rapidly does the medicine amount decay and what is
the initial amount of medicine in blood are unknown. These parameters have
to be estimated through some means before one can use the model

Static vs Dynamic
Jika waktu tidak berperan sehingga semua variabel juga independen
terhadap waktu, maka sistem adalah statik.
Sebaliknya jika waktu berperan sehingga variabel nilainya berubah dg waktu,
maka kita mempunyai sistem dinamik.
Alloy Selection
Jika problem ini digambarkan sebagai sistem lup tertutup dg 3 variabel yaitu A
koeffisien thermal, B metoda produksi dan C suplier

C
A
B
Rocket launch
Posisi dan kecepatan roket terhadap tempat peluncuran di bumi adalah berubah
dengan waktu. Hubungan antara posisi dan kecepatan dijelaskan dengan teori
dinamika.

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Continuous vs Discrete
Jika variabel dalam sistem perlu digambarkan pada all time instants
(Continuous) atau hanya pada relevant time instants (discrete)
Memilih continuous atau discrete tergantung banyak aspek dalam
pemodelan.
Jika continuous terlalu detail, bisa digunakan skala waktu discrete
Permintaan soft drink
Jika tertarik pada interval permintaan mingguan, maka varibel yang
menggambarkan sistem berubah dalam periode mingguan. Unsur waktu
diperlakukan sebagai discrete.
Polusi Sungai
Level konsentrasi zat pencemar di sungai pada lokasi tertentu berubah
secara kontinyu dengan waktu, sehingga digunakan pendekatan
continuous.

Deterministic vs Stochastic
Deterministik: Jika nilai variabel (sistem statik) atau perubahan nilainya
(sistem dinamik) bersifat predictable dengan kepastian.
Stokastik: Jika nilai atau perubahan nilai variabelnya random dan
unpredictable.
Keandalan komponen
Data waktu kegagalan komponen sebuah mesin menunjukkan adanya
variabilitas yang besar (37 s/d 415 jam) sehingga sistem tersebut
stokastik
Peluncuran Roket
Posisi dan kecepatan roket dapat diformulasikan secara akurat dari
teori dinamika sistem, sehingga posisi dan kecepatan roket dapat
diprediksi dengan akurasi yg tinggi pula. Sistem ini dipandang sebagai
deterministik.

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