Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Utilities
Multi- Utilities
Exchange: NYSE
Ticker: WEC
Nathan Eisenberg
Associate Analyst
neisenberg@theowlfund.com
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Wisconsin Electric Corporation (WEC) is a vertically
integrated multi-utility operating in Wisconsin and the
Michigan Upper Peninsula. WEC operates primarily in two
segments: utility energy (90.9% of FY 13 revenue) and nonutility energy (0.9%). WECs utility segment serves 2.2 million
customers and is the largest utility in Wisconsin. The nonutility segment generates power for WEC transmission and
wholesale on the unregulated energy markets.
Sector: Outperform
Recommendation: BUY
Key Statistics
Price Projected
$47.61 52 wk High
Capital Return
5% 52 wk Low
Shares O/S (mm)
226 Yield
Market Cap (mm) $10,275 EV (mm)
P/E
17.8 Beta
$49.21
$40.11
3.42%
$15,314
0.67
INVESTMENT THESIS
Currently, the Owl Fund portfolio has an allocation to XLU,
the SPDR Utilities ETF, which is a basket of 30 S&P 500
index utilities. The utility sector is currently trading at the
upper end of its historical valuation because after the U.S.
Federal Reserve cut interest rates, investors deployed capital
into these equities searching to replace yields lost in their bond
portfolios. Since the U.S. economy has stabilized after the 2008
financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has ended quantitative
easing and is seeking to raise interest rates as GDP expands
and unemployment declines. As a result of the expected
tightening monetary policy, the 10 year treasury rate will rise.
Risk-adverse investors will rotate back into fixed income
positions. This will cause an outflow from utility stocks and a
subsequent fall in their value. We believe the Owl Fund can be
proactive and make the tactical decision to reallocate a portion
of capital from the XLU ETF, to a single, undervalued utility
company. Wisconsin Energy Corporation (WEC) offers a
synthesis of undervaluation, premium operational
performance, liquidity, attractive yield and future dividend
growth potential greater than that of its XLU peers. These
factors will provide the Owl Fund with capital appreciation,
yield, and downside protection when investors rotate out of
the utilities sector. We initiate coverage of WEC with a Buy
recommendation with a price target of $47.61 which was
achieved using an implied p/e multiple of 18.38x and NTM
Consensus EPS of $2.59. With a 3.4% dividend yield, we
expect a total return of 8%.
Earnings History
Date
3Q2013
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
$
$
$
$
Price
-1.22%
-0.17%
0.75%
-2.03%
$3.00
$0.80
$2.50
$2.00
$0.60
$1.50
$0.40
$1.00
$0.20
$0.50
$-
$2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
$ 0.72
$ 0.41
$ 0.55
$ 0.49
$ 2.17
2012
$ 0.74
$ 0.51
$ 0.67
$ 0.43
$ 2.35
2013
$ 0.76
$ 0.52
$ 0.60
$ 0.63
$ 2.51
2014
$ 0.91
$ 0.59
$ 0.50
$ 0.62
$ 2.62
2015E
$ 0.87
$ 0.60
$ 0.60
$ 0.63
$ 2.70
Fall 2014
CATALYSTS
Although utility companies are known for low growth and high regulation,
management can create value through superior relationships with regulators
and financial stewardship with regard to capital expenditures, capital
structure, dividend payments, and strategic acquisitions. We believe that
WEC possesses a management team that has a strong track record and
transparent objectives that will persist through our investment horizon.
Below are examples of catalysts unique to WEC that will deliver higher
earnings, improved cash flow, and create a runway for future dividend
increases greater than that of its peers. We do not contend that these factors
are not priced-in to the stock; however, we are less concerned with capital
appreciation and more concerned with downside protection and higher yield
our primary reasons for rotating out of the XLU ETF and increasing the
Funds exposure to this specific utility.
ECONOMIC MOAT
Moderate / Stable
RISKS
POSITIVES
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Fall 2014
TARGET PRICE
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
U.S. Utilities
The U.S. utilities industry provides electric power services to residential (45.2% of industry revenue),
commercial (36.7%), industrial (17.9%) and transportation (0.2%) markets. Utilities serve an essential public
good; and as such, demand is fairly inelastic in the short-term, consumption being relatively unaffected by
sudden changes in energy-commodity prices. Thus, utilities are often seen as independent of economic cycles.
Shareholders are rewarded in this mature market through high-dividend yields that cause utilities to function
like fixed income vehicles. The capital-intensive infrastructure required and lack of substitute goods have
consolidated the utility market, most utilities operating as near-monopolies in their geographic region of
operations. While most utilities remain regulated, vertically integrated from power generation to distribution,
the early 1990s saw the deregulation of wholesale electricity prices; opening up the market to speculative,
merchant generators who sell electricity on unregulated markets.
Regulated Utilities
Regulatory bodies such as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and local public utility
commissions (PUCs) impose strict guidelines on regulated utilities rates, service standards and power
transmission. This highly regulated environment keeps electricity costs and utilities earnings fairly stable and
predictable. Utilities achieve revenue growth through incremental electrical and natural gas demand increases,
as well as periodic customer rate increases. Rate increases are accomplished when a utility company receives a
favorable judgment from a PUC in a rate case - a formal process in which a utility applies for the approval to
raise utility rates on customers for the purpose of recovering costs of required infrastructure maintenance and
investment, as well as fuel costs. These costs are a function of a test year, a specified period of time
regulators use as a base for measuring a utilitys costs. It should be noted that depending on the state, test
years may occur every year or every two years, and test years can be backward- or forward-looking; a utility
either projects its expected costs or applies to recover costs already incurred. WI uses forward-looking test years
and has test years every two years, with January 1, 2015 representing a new test year. Factors impacting a
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Fall 2014
PUCs judgment in approving rate includes consideration of the utilities quality of service and responsiveness
to blackouts. Essentially, a utility companys growth is boosted by cost increases and capital expenditures,
while their recovery is as a function of a target ROE for the company. Successfully passing rate cases is vital
for a utilitys continued profitability: corporate image is a significant factor.
Deregulated Utilities
Deregulatory trends have continued since the 1990s, state-by-state. Merchant generators market wholesale
electricity to service providers and network operators, but do not participate in the transmission or
distribution end. Consumption is both cyclical (higher in the summer and winter months) and volatile
(subject to weather conditions). This makes it difficult to predict demand, exposing wholesale generators to
greater price risks. For instance, a mild summer could curtail demand as a result of lighter air conditioner-use.
Accurate speculators can achieve greater returns then their regulated counterparts, however. Many regulated
utilities have wholesale subsidiaries that can sell electricity back to the parent company or other service
providers. Commodity volatility in recent years has led some utilities to divest their generation segments,
while others are looking to grow wholesale segments.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin (WI) residential consumers use 103 million BTU of energy per home, 15% more than the national
average. However, lower electricity and natural gas costs result in 5% less spending on energy than the
national average. Due to somewhat cooler weather, WI consumes more electricity during the winter and less
during the summer than the average. WIs robust industrial sector, which includes chemical manufacturing,
food processing, plastics and forest products, demands higher-than-average energy use, accounting for nearly
one-third of the states consumption. Coal is the single largest source (62%) of net generation. WI is also
home to the corporate headquarters of Harley Davidson, Kohls, Johnson Controls. WI also has an
unemployment rate of 5.7%, below the national average.
Frac Sand Industry in Wisconsin
The soil in the western part of Wisconsin is largely sand, and has a complimentary composition to the
requirements of hydraulic fracturing proppant. Sand mining operations has grown recently to support the
increased drilling activity in the Permian and Bakken Basins. This is a positive for WEC because frac sand is
wet upon mining and must be dried before being shipped via rail car in order to reduce tonnage and
transportation costs. Many of the frac sand miners complete this task using natural gas fueled, industrial sized
driers. Additional driers and frac sand mining will increase energy demand in the region and help offset
conservation and efficient use seen in the residential sector.
Outlook
Growth in electricity consumption has slowed every decade since the 1950s as growth in electric services is
partially offset by increased efficiency. Nevertheless, demand is expected to grow roughly one-percent each
year through 2040. Utility consolidation is a recent trend aimed at achieving geographic synergies, with total
M&A expected to reach a record $25 billion in 2014 as deregulation continues. Finally, natural gas is expected
to be the fastest growing source of generation as environmental legislation curbs coal profitability.
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Fall 2014
DETAILED COMPANY OVERVIEW
Business Segments
Utility Energy
WECs utility energy segment is We Energies, consisting of Wisconsin Electric and Wisconsin Gas. We
Energies provides electricity to over 2.2 million customers in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. This segment comprises 90.9% of WECs FY 13 revenue ($4.46 billion) and is both the largest
electric and natural gas utility in Wisconsin. In addition to generation and distribution, We Energies buys and
sells energy on the MISO wholesale markets. Power generation is achieved through three main fuel types:
coal (63.48% net output, natural gas (33.95%) and renewables (2.57%, which includes hydroelectric, biomass
and wind power).
We Energies submitted a biennial rate case earlier this year for 2015 and 2016. Agreements for target ROE,
capital structure and base rate changes were settled in May.
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Fall 2014
Mergers & Acquisitions
TEG
We find the announced acquisition of TEG to be a catalyst for both capital appreciation and dividend
increases. The transaction would create WEC Energy Group, Inc. (still traded as NYSE:WEC), and expand
WECs current footprint from solely Wisconsin, to Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota. Post-acquisition, WEC
would have a market capitalization of $15 billion and raise WECs aggregate customer base 95.5%, from 2.2
million to 4.3 million customers. The combined company would control the 8th largest natural gas distribution
operation in the U.S. and possess a 60% economic interest in ATC, the largest independent transmission
company in the United States. This acquisition is anticipated to be accretive in the first calendar year and will
contribute to WECs expected annual EPS growth of 5% - 7% and annual dividend growth of 7% - 8%.
TEG is in close proximity to WECs existing infrastructure and the combined company will be able to realize
synergies and improve reliability of its services to customers. Because utility companies are mainly fixed assets
such as power plants and infrastructure, we see limited risk in its integration and results. The transaction is
subject to approvals by: WEC and TEG shareholders; the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; the
Federal Communications Commission; and WI, MI, MN, and IL state regulators. The transaction is expected
to close at the end of 2Q2015.
Aside from TEG, WECs is not very acquisitive, making only 6 small acquisitions in the last ten years.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Revenue
Revenue grew from $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion, a 1.83%
CAGR since 2010. Cost hedging mechanisms make gross
margin a more relevant performance indicator, as
described below.
Margins
Gross Margin
WEC believes gross margins to be a better indicator of
performance than revenue as fuel price fluctuates in
tandem with energy sales. Gross margins have grown at a
CAGR of 9.29% since 2010. GM in 2010 and 2011 were
somewhat depressed due to increased operations and
maintenance expenses from aging infrastructure.
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Fall 2014
Electric
Electric utility gross margins grew slightly at just under a one-percent CAGR since 2011, fluctuating
between 63.9% and 65.86%. Warmer weather during 2012 and a cold 2012 favorably impacted
electric gross margins.
Gas
Gas utility gross margins also grew slightly, at just over a one-percent CAGR since 2011. Natural gas
prices experienced greater volatility during this period, contributing to wider gross margin
fluctuations between 38.31% and 43.3%.
Capital Expenditures/Depreciation
Capital expenditures decreased at a 6.12% CAGR since 2011, primarily due
to decreased expenditures need on WECs Oak Creek AQCS plant. WEC
currently has a CAPEX to depreciation ratio of 1.8x, which has remained
near or above 2.0x since 2011, emphasizing WECs commitment to a
growing rate base.
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Fall 2014
DuPont Analysis / ROE
WEC operates in a very favorable rate
environment and has a strong track record
of winning rate cases. This is evidended by
its high return on equity relative to its peer
group and the broader XLU ETF.
DuPont Analysis
Company
Tax
Burden
Interest
Burden
Operating
Margin
Asset
Turnover
Leverage
Ratio
ROE
BB
Check
14.5%
Wisconsin Energy
62.41
0.87
0.24
0.34
0.03
15.4%
Average
64.11
0.76
0.18
0.33
0.04
11%
11%
64.61
0.80
0.19
0.30
0.04
9.9%
10.8%
65.73
0.79
0.17
0.34
0.04
10.6%
10.1%
Northeast Utilities
63.15
0.78
0.21
0.27
0.03
8.0%
7.8%
62.96
0.67
0.17
0.41
0.05
14.9%
14.8%
Dividends
The primary consideration when investing in a utility company is
yield, and its ability to grow dividends per share. WEC has a
dividend yield of 3.4%, a long term track record of increasing
dividends, and leads the entire XLU ETF in dividend growth.
WEC has five-year dividend growth of 14% vs. peer groups
average of 6%.
WEC has a payout ratio of 57% and management has guided it
seeks to steadily increase this ratio to 65% - 70% by 2017.
VALUATION
Undervaluation
Utility companies have stable, predictable cash flows, low
growth, and are highly regulated. Their businesses are not
impacted by economic shocks and demand for their services
electricity - is inelastic. As such, their valuations are largely
indicative of true intrinsic value, more so than other sectors.
Shareholders are more concerned with a utilitys ability to pay
dividends and less concerned with capital appreciation.
Another consideration regarding utility company valuations is the 10 year treasury yield. After the U.S.
Federal Reserve cut interest rates, risk-adverse investors deployed capital into utility equities searching to
replace yields lost in their bond portfolios, inflating valuations. Also, given the markets recent volatility,
utility companies have appreciated due to a flight to safety. We expect continued volatility in the near term
due to ongoing concerns of European economic growth, weak demand in China, and the looming tightening
of U.S. monetary policy. WEC is trading 1.1% above it one-year historical average, a 3.9% discount to its
three-year historical average, and a 4.0% discount to its five-year historical average. Compared to an index of
its peers, WEC is trading at a 3.76% discount to its three-year historical average. We believe that the TEG
acquisition and WECs ability to receive future rate increases will bring it to our target implied p/e multiple of
18.38x.
Page 8
Fall 2014
Comparable Analysis
Wisconsin Energy Comparable Analysis
($ in millions except per share)
Capitalization
Stock Equity Enterprise
Price
Company
WEC
$45.56
Mean
Median
AEP
$53.89
XEL
$31.58
NU
$46.46
CMS
$30.51
Market
Value
$10,275
$26,334
$15,960
$14,699
$8,423
Market
Valuation Multiples
P/E Multiple
Value
LTM
$15,314 17.8
16.3
16.1
$45,378 14.8
$28,398 16.3
$24,152 18.2
$16,207 16.0
NFY
16.9
15.6
15.6
15.2
15.1
16.1
16.2
EV/EBITDA
LTM
9.8
9.3
9.0
8.6
9.5
10.6
8.6
NFY
9.7
8.8
8.7
8.5
8.9
9.4
8.4
Ratios
Margins
ROIC/ Dividend 5 Year
Gross Profit Current
WACC Yield Dividend Payout Margin Margin Ratio Beta
%
%
Growth Ratio
%
%
LTM
NTM
LTM
LTM
LTM
LTM
1.77
3.39
13.94 56.96
55.27 12.78
1.04 0.67
1.3
3.52
6.07 60.36
56.0
9.0
0.9 0.7
1.2
3.56
6.43 59.28
57.4
9.2
0.8 0.7
1.23
3.69
4.17 64.46
62.67
9.64
0.71 0.75
1.23
3.67
7.27 58.43
52.10
8.69
0.88 0.69
1.12
3.27
6.88 58.87
62.70 10.77
0.64 0.61
1.62
3.44
5.97 59.69
46.70
6.88
1.30 0.69
Leverage
Debt/
Equity
%
MRQ
0.67
0.7
0.7
0.75
0.69
0.61
0.69
APPENDIX
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Fall 2014
DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared strictly for educational purposes and should not be used as an actual investment guide.
The forward looking statements contained within are simply the authors opinions. The writer does not own any
Wisconsin Energy Corp. stock.
TUIA STATEMENT
Established in honor of Professor William C. Dunkelberg, former Dean of the Fox School of Business, for his
tireless dedication to educating students in real-world principles of economics and business, the William C.
Dunkelberg (WCD) Owl Fund will ensure that future generations of students have exposure to a challenging,
practical learning experience. Managed by Fox School of Business graduate and undergraduate students with
oversight from its Board of Directors, the WCD Owl Funds goals are threefold:
Earnings from the fund will be reinvested net of fund expenses, which are primarily trading and auditing costs
and partial scholarships for student participants.
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