Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry - Market

Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts to

2019
th

Released On 24 November 2014

Summary
The Future of the Ukrainian Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive
Landscape, and Forecasts to 2019, provides readers with a detailed analysis of both
historic and forecast industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by
industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.
Key Findings
The Ukrainian defense expenditure recorded a CAGR of 0.06% between 2010 and 2014,
and values US$1.7 billion in 2014
The countrys total defense expenditure during the forecast period is expected to be
US$22.1 billion
The average share of capital expenditure is expected to be 11.6% over the forecast period,
compared to an average share of 16.1% during 20102014.

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Over the forecast period, the countrys budget for homeland security is expected to be
US$9.3 billion cumulatively
The key areas of investment are expected to be helicopter, naval vessels, patrol boats,
unmanned aerial vehicles and surveillance equipment

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Synopsis
This report offers a detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry with market size
forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence
demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry
participants.
In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following:
Ukrainian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the
Ukrainian defense industry during 20152019, including highlights of the demand drivers
and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the countrys
spending patterns and modernization patterns
Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated
within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy,
and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants
within the country
Porters Five Force analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry: analysis of the market
characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of
buyer, the threat of substitutions, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the countrys imports and
exports over the last five years
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Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the
coming 10 years
Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of
the Ukrainian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with
insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis
Reasons To Buy
This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on
a detailed analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry market trends for the coming five
years
The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military
requirements, which are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The
description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment
pattern of the country during the forecast period
Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information
about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever
available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
A deep qualitative analysis of the Ukrainian defense industry covering sections including
demand drivers, Porters Five Force Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and
latest industry contracts, among others
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
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3.1.1. Ukrainian defense expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 19.35% over 2015-2019
3.1.2. Reform and development program, strained relationship with Russia, acquisition of
new military hardware systems, and peacekeeping missions expected to drive Ukrainian
defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase over the forecast
period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation of overall defense budget expected to witness an
increase during the forecast period
3.2.2. The Ukrainian Air Force accounts for the majority of the countrys defense expenditure
3.2.3. Ukrainian Army expenditure expected to register a CAGR of 19.60% during the
forecast period
3.2.4. Ukrainian Navy allocation of overall defense budget expected to increase
3.2.5. Ukraine expected to invest US$1.7 billion cumulatively in its Air Force over the
forecast period
3.2.6. Direct subordination units (DSU) expenditure projected to record a CAGR of 15.52%
over the forecast period
3.2.7. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 8.05% during the
forecast period
3.3.2. Organized crime, maritime security threats, and ethnic tensions expected to encourage
investment in the procurement of homeland security equipment
3.3.3. Ukraine considered at some risk of terrorist attack
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. During the forecast period, Ukrainian defense expenditure is expected to increase at a
CAGR of 19.3%
3.4.2. Ukrainian military expenditure is limited compared to worlds leading defense spenders
3.4.3. In comparison with the worlds leading defense spenders, Ukrainian defense
expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, is moderate
3.4.4. According to the SDI Terrorism Index, Ukraine faces some risk of terrorist threat
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1. Maritime defense equipment
3.5.2. Border Security
3.5.3. Air defense systems
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. A relatively small defense budget limits Ukraines defense imports
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4.2. Export Market Dynamics

4.2.1. Ukrainian arms exports to increase over the forecast period
4.2.2. The Ukrainian defense industry has a diverse consumer base
4.2.3. Armored vehicles and aircraft accounted for the majority of Ukrainian defense exports
5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: high
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low to high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high
6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Ukraine follows a prohibitive defense industry FDI policy
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Joint development of defense goods provides investors with a market entry opportunity
6.2.2. Foreign investors can enter the industry through direct sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Small defense budget offers equipment manufacturers limited investment potential
6.3.2. Lack of necessary infrastructure impedes growth of domestic defense industry
6.3.3. Corruption and a lack of transparency discourages investors from entering the market
7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
7.2.1. Antonov ASTC: overview
7.2.2. Antonov ASTC: products and services
7.2.3. Antonov ASTC: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Antonov ASTC: alliances
7.2.5. Antonov ASTC: recent contract wins
7.2.6. RPC Fort: overview
7.2.7. RPC Fort: products and services
7.2.8. RPC Fort: alliances
7.2.9. RPC Fort: recent contract wins
7.2.10. KMDB: overview
7.2.11. KMDB: products and services
7.2.12. KMDB: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
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7.2.13. KMDB: recent contract wins

7.2.14. Malyshev Plant: overview
7.2.15. Malyshev Plant: products and services
7.2.16. Malyshev Plant: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.17. Malyshev Plant: recent contract wins
7.2.18. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: overview
7.2.19. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: products and services
7.2.20. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.21. AvtoKrAZ Holding Company: recent contract wins
7.2.22. Motor Sich: overview
7.2.23. Motor Sich: products and services
7.2.24. Motor Sich: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.25. Motor Sich: alliances
7.2.26. Motor Sich: recent contract wins
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion)
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billion)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billion)
8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$ billion)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US$ (period average)
8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per EUR (period average)
8.2.11. Lending Rate (%)
8.2.12. Deposit Rate (%)
8.2.13. Real Interest Rate (%)
8.2.14. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
8.2.15. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.16. Total Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion)
8.2.17. Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.18. Goods Exports as % of GDP
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8.2.19. Goods Imports as % of GDP

8.2.20. Goods Balance as % of GDP
8.2.21. Services Imports as % of GDP
8.2.22. Services Exports as % of GDP
8.2.23. Services Balance as % of GDP
8.2.24. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
8.2.25. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP
8.2.26. International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion)
8.2.27. External Debt as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5. Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.6. Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.7. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas
8.3.8. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.9. Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.3.10. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Roads, total network
8.4.2. Rail lines (total route), total network
8.4.3. Air Transport (freight)
8.4.4. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Research and Development Expenditure
8.6.2. Patents granted
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

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List Of Tables
Table 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Table 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Table 3: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Table 4: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Table 5: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2010-2014
Table 6: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2019
Table 7: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2010-2014
Table 8: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2019
Table 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%),
2010-2014
Table 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%),
2015-2019
Table 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2010-2014
Table 12: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2015-2098
Table 13: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Table 14: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Table 15: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Table 16: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Table 17: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Table 18: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Table 19: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Table 20: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Table 21: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Table 22: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Table 23: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Table 24: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Table 25: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Table 26: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Table 27: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2010-2014
Table 28: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2019
Table 29: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Table 30: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2019
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Table 31: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2010-2014

Table 32: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2015-2019
Table 33: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2010-2014 vs. 2015-2019
Table 34: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 35: Competitive Landscape of the Ukrainian Defense Industry
Table 36: Antonov ASTC - Products and Services
Table 37: Antonov ASTC - Alliances
Table 38: Antonov ASTC - Recent Contract Wins
Table 39: RPC Fort - Products and Services
Table 40: RPC Fort - Alliances
Table 41: RPC Fort - Recent Contract Wins
Table 42: KMDB - Products and Services
Table 43: KMDB - Recent Contract Wins
Table 44: Malyshev Plant -Products and Services
Table 45: Malyshev Plant - Recent Contract Wins
Table 46: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Products and Services
Table 47: AvtoKrAZ Holding Company - Recent Contract Wins
Table 48: Motor Sich - Products and Services
Table 49: Motor Sich - Alliances
Table 50: Motor Sich - Recent Contract Wins
List Of Figures
Figure 1: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 2: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 3: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 4: Ukrainian Defense Expenditure (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 5: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2010-2014
Figure 6: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2019
Figure 7: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2010-2014
Figure 8: Ukrainian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure
as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2019
Figure 9: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%),
2010-2014
Figure 10: Ukrainian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue expenditure (%),
2015-2019
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Figure 11: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2010-2014

Figure 12: Ukrainian Defense Budget Breakdown (%), 2015-2019
Figure 13: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Figure 14: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Figure 15: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 16: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Army (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 17: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Figure 18: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Figure 19: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2010-2014
Figure 20: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Navy (UAH Billion), 2015-2019
Figure 21: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Figure 22: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Figure 23: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 20102014
Figure 24: Ukrainian Defense Budget Allocation for the Air Force (UAH Billion), 20152019
Figure 25: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Million), 2010-2014
Figure 26: Ukrainian Other Categories Defense Budget Allocation (US$ Million), 2015-2019
Figure 27: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2010-2014
Figure 28: Ukrainian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2019
Figure 29: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2010-2014
Figure 30: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2019
Figure 31: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2010-2014
Figure 32: Ukrainian Homeland Security Budget (UAH billion), 2015-2019
Figure 33: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2014
Figure 34: SDI Terrorism Index, 2014
Figure 35: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2010-2014 vs. 2015-2019
Figure 36: Benchmarking with Worlds Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2014 and
2019
Figure 37: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP - 2014
Figure 38: Ukrainian Arms Exports Trend, 2009-2013 (TIV values)
Figure 39: Ukrainian Defense Exports by Country (%), 2009-2013
Figure 40:Ukrainian Defense Exports by Weapons Category (%), 2009-2013
Figure 41: Industry Dynamics - Porters Five Forces Analysis
Figure 42: Ukrainian Rural Population (In Millions), 2010-2019
Figure 43: Ukrainian Urban Population (In Millions), 2009-2018
Figure 44: Ukrainian Number of Households (In Millions), 2008-2017
Figure 45: Ukrainian GDP Per Capita, 2008-2017
Figure 46: Ukrainian GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2010-2019
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Figure 47: Ukrainian Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 20042013
Figure 48: Ukrainian Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 20042013
Figure 49: Ukrainian Gross National Disposable Income, 2002-2011
Figure 50: Ukraines Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 51: Ukrainian Consumer Price Index, 2008-2017
Figure 52: Ukrainian Wholesale Price Index, 2003-2012
Figure 53: Local Currency Unit per US$, 2009-2018
Figure 54: Local Currency Unit per EUR, 2008-2017
Figure 55: Ukrainian Lending Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 56: Ukrainian Deposit Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 57: Ukrainian Real Interest Rate (%), 2003-2012
Figure 58: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Ukraine (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 59: Ukrainian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2003-2012
Figure 60: Ukrainian Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 61: Ukrainian Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 62: Ukrainian Goods Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 63: Ukrainian Goods Imports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 64: Ukrainian Goods Balance as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 65: Ukrainian Services Imports as % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 66: Ukrainian Services Exports as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 67: Ukrainian Services Balance as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 68: Ukrainian Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 69: Ukrainian Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2002-2011
Figure 70: Ukrainian International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2003-2012
Figure 71: Ukrainian External Debt as % of GDP, 2003-2012
Figure 72: Ukrainian Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion
Kilowatt Hours), 2002-2011
Figure 73: Ukrainian Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 74: Ukrainian Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts Hours), 20032012
Figure 75: Ukrainian Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million
Kilowatts), 2001-2010
Figure 76: Ukrainian Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 77: Ukrainian Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2003-2012
Figure 78: Ukrainian Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2005-2014
Figure 79: Ukrainian Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003-2012
Figure 80: Ukrainian Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Million Barrels), 2004-2013
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Figure 81: Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts),
2001-2010
Figure 82: Roads, Total Network (Km), 2002-2011
Figure 83: Rail Lines, Total Route (Km), 2003-2012
Figure 84: Air Transport (Freight), Million ton-km, 2003-2012
Figure 85: Overall Construction (US$ Million), 2006-2014
Figure 86: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (USD Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 87: Research and Development Expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2000-2009
Figure 88: Patents Granted, 2003-2012
Figure 89: Telephone Lines in Ukraine (in Millions), 2003-2012
Figure 90: Telephone Lines Penetration Rate in Ukraine (per 100 people), 2003-2012

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