Credit Swisse 24-01-2014

24.01.
2014
Zurich/Switzerland
Investment Strategy
Timing & Sentiment Analysis
Technical Investment Weekly
International Chart Outlook

Private Banking & Wealth Management
MSCI World Stocks Index (monthly chart)
Stock markets are tracing out a correction as risky assets are

selling off in wake of disappointing manufacturing data in
China. The MSCI World Stock Market Index is
approaching the long-term resistance range 1660 to 1750.
The momentum picture in the short-term and the mediumterm horizon remains weak. Most of the global 1325 stocks
we track the short-term, medium-term and long-term
momentum readings are slowing down. Consequently, upside
potential seems limited and a break through to a new all-time
high is unlikely given this momentum constellation.
European shares slipped, with stocks exposed to emerging
markets hit by a rout in Latin American currencies and banks
losing ground on concerns about their earnings outlook. The
currency crisis in Argentina put pressure on Spanish stocks,
with the IBEX index falling 1.7 percent to underperform the
wider European market. Key support is at 9750. The S&P
500 Index is still tracing out a wedge. So far, it failed to break
to the upside and instead entered a correction. A break of
supports around 1820, 1800 and 1765 would clearly signal
that a major correction has started. Investors may want to
take some profits if these supports fail to hold. The seasonal
stock market high, which we expect to be registered around
March, could then be reached at a lower high. But for now,
our tactical equity rating remains neutral.
The US 10-year yield did not break key resistance at around
3.0% and continues to tracing out a medium-term correction.
However, our ratings for most Bond Total Return charts
remain neutral.
Credit Suisse Relationship Managers (RMs) and Investment

Consultants (ICs) who want to add clients to the e-mail
subscription list of our International Chart Outlook can do so
by sending an E-Mail to hotline.isr@credit-suisse.com
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
2000
2010
S & P 500 Index (hourly chart)
S&P 500 INDEX
2013
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1840
1830
1820
1810
1800
1790
1780
1770
1760
1750
1740
2014
Rolf Bertschi, Managing Director, rolf.bertschi@credit-suisse.com

Pascal Zingg, Assistant Vice President, CFTe, CMT, pascal.zingg@credit-suisse.com
Christian Sutter, Technical Strategist, christian.sutter.2@credit-suisse.com
This material is not investment research or a research recommendation for regulatory purposes. Please find
further important information at the end of this document
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Performance can be affected by commissions, fees or other charges as well as exchange
rate fluctuations.
Page 1
24.01.2014
Zurich/Switzerland
Global Technical Research
PAGE
GLOBAL STOCK MARKET INDICES
MSCI WORLD STOCKS
MSCI EMERGING MARKETS
USA S&P 500 INDEX
RIC
CLOSE
Mt
Score
Position
Rec.Date Rec. Price
P&L
YTD Perf.
.MSCIWO
1'650.45
NA
-0.64%
.MSCIEF
963.98
-3.86%
.SPX
1'828.46
12
-0.94%
.GSPTSE
13'932.97
36
.BVSP
48'320.64
.MXX
41'531.80
12
.STOXX50E
3'117.08
22
0.26%
.FCHI
4'280.96
20
-0.35%
.GDAXI
9'631.04
32
0.83%
24
AMERICAN INDICES
CANADA COMPOSITE INDEX

BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX
MEXICO BOLSA INDEX
2.29%
short
10.01.2014 49'322.00
2.0%
-6.21%
-2.79%
EUROPEAN INDICES
8
EUROPE EUROSTOXX 50 INDEX

FRANCE CAC40 INDEX
9
9
GERMANY DAX
SWITZERLAND SMI
.SSMI
8'404.98
SWITZERLAND MIDCAP
.SMII
9'642.53
NA
SWITZERLAND SMALLCAP
.SSCC
15'662.08
U.K. FTSE 100 INDEX
.FTSE
6'773.28
short
20.12.2013
8'080.00
-2.6%
NA
long
15.07.2013 13'011.23
19.0%
5.50%
26
short
20.12.2013
-1.9%
0.36%
2.46%
2.67%
6'589.00
DENMARK OMXC20 INDEX
.OMXC20
647.93
30
5.27%
FINLAND OMXH GEN PI INDEX
.OMXHPI
7'339.07
0.03%
NORWAY OSE ALL SHARE INDEX
.OSEAX
612.44
22
1.60%
SWEDEN OMXS30 INDEX
.OMXS30
1'339.80
27
0.51%
PORTUGAL PSI GENERAL
.PSI20
6'839.62
4.28%
ITALY MIB INDEX
.FTMIB
19'814.55
28
4.46%
GREECE ATHEX COMPOSITE
.ATG
1'223.28
11
5.21%
SPAIN IBEX 35 INDEX
.IBEX
10'241.20
20
3.27%
RUSSIA RTS INDEX
.IRTS
1'381.59
18
-0.48%
.N225
15'695.89
12
-2.80%
ASIA-PACIFIC INDICES
10
JAPAN NIKKEI 225
10
AUSTRALIA ALL ORDINARIES
.AXJO
5'262.99
-1.67%
CHINA SHANGHAI A SHARE
.SSEA
2'137.07
NA
-3.32%
CHINA SHANGHAI B SHARE
.SSEB
249.07
NA
-1.67%
11
CHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE
.SSEC
2'042.18
12
-3.31%
11
HONG KONG CHINA ENTERPRISES
.HSCE
10'109.49
-6.88%
.HSI
22'733.90
-3.07%
.BSESN
21'373.66
32
0.71%
INDONESIA IDX COMPOSITE INDEX
.JKSE
4'496.04
33
6.03%
MALAYSIA FTSE BURSA KLCI INDEX
.KLSE
1'808.31
-3.08%
.PSI
6'170.05
29
4.16%
HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX

INDIA BOMBAY SENSEX
PHILIPPINES PSE INDEX

SINGAPORE STRAITS TIMES INDEX
.FTSTI
3'100.24
-2.50%
SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX
.KS11
1'947.59
-3.25%
TAIWAN WEIGHTED INDEX
.TWII
8'595.10
33
-0.27%
22
NA
THAILAND SET INDEX
.SETI
1'308.34
VIETNAM VN INDEX
.VNI
553.55
1.27%
long
19.08.2013
511.00
9.6%
9.48%
rate fluctuations.
MT = medium-term (3-6 moths).
U = upgrade; D = downgrade; + = rising; - = declining; 0 = neutral.
Stock Market Indices, Commodities, Global Bond Markets
The Model Score ranges from 0 (maximum bearish) to 36 (maximum bullish) and is derived from trend and momentum indicators on the absolute price
basis as well as relative to the Benchmark.
A score of > 25 is bullish (green) and a score <11 is bearish (red). A score between 11 and 25 is neutral.
Global Currencies
The Model Score ranges from 0 (maximum bearish) to 18 (maximum bullish) and is derived from trend and momentum indicators.
A score of > 12 is bullish (green) and a score < 7 is bearish (red). A score between 7 and 12 is neutral.
Page 2
24.01.2014
Zurich/Switzerland
Global Technical Research
PAGE
13
COMMODITIES
CS COMMODITIES BENCHMARK INDEX
PRECIOUS METALS INDEX
RIC
CLOSE
Mt
Score
Position
Rec.Date
Rec. Price
P&L
YTD Perf.
.CSIXTR
5'737.99
NA
0.27%
.DJUBPRTR
370.00
NA
3.19%
14
GOLD
XAU=
1'266.30
24
5.07%
14
SILVER
XAG=
20.10
16
3.55%
PLATINUM
XPT=
1'438.75
30
5.21%
PALLADIUM
XPD=
739.50
21
3.72%
NA
1.21%
-1.20%
.DJUBENTR
190.39
LIGHT CRUDE OIL
CLc1
97.32
31
BRENT CRUDE OIL
LCOc1
107.58
12
-3.08%
NATURAL GAS
NGc1
4.73
36
11.77%
ENERGY INDEX
15
.DJUBINTR
263.38
NA
-1.73%
ALUMINIUM
CMAL3
1'763.00
-2.00%
COPPER
CMCU3
7'206.00
-2.48%
NICKEL
CMNI3
14'670.00
36
4.94%
ZINC
CMZN3
2'045.50
17
-0.70%
LEAD
CMPB3
2'153.00
-2.93%
TIN
CMSN3
22'025.00
-1.70%
.DJUBAGTR
137.27
NA
-1.52%
CORN
Cc1
429.00
22
1.66%
WHEAT
Wc1
570.00
-5.79%
-2.70%
INDUSTRIAL METALS INDEX
15
AGRICULTURAL INDEX
Sc1
1'277.00
SUGAR
SBc1
15.04
COCOA
CCc1
2'791.00
32
COFFEE
KCc1
115.20
14
COTTON
CTc1
87.33
U+
34
RIC
CLOSE
Mt
Score
15
USA 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXAUSGOV710U
609.04
15
CANADA 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXACNGOV710D
736.39
18
2.80%
15
1.60%
1.67%
SOYBEANS
PAGE
GLOBAL BOND MARKETS

Thomson Reuters Total Return Indices
CGBI WORLD BONDS TOTAL RETURN INDEX
17
-8.18%
long
09.09.2013
2'544.00
9.7%
3.29%
86.94
0.4%
3.23%
3.74%
open long 24.01.2014
Position
Rec.Date
Rec. Price
P&L
YTD Perf.
short
20.12.2013
601.56
-1.2%
1.59%
NA
GERMANY 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXABGGOV710E
634.36
19
SWITZERLAND 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXASWGOV710D
322.65
18
20
U.K. 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXAUKGOV710D
718.22
15
21
ITALY 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXAITGOV710E
825.49
12
SPAIN 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXAESGOV710E
781.57
14
1.84%
18
JAPAN 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXAJPGOV710D
288.00
15
0.68%
AUSTRALIA 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN
.TRXAAUGOV710D
934.00
18
0.88%
RIC
CLOSE
Mt
Score
US DOLLAR INDEX
.DXY
80.49
NA
0.35%
US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC
CHF=
0.90
0.35%
US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR
CAD=
1.11
18
4.16%
US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN
JPY=
102.63
-2.52%
PAGE
22
23
24
26
GLOBAL CURRENCIES
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR
GBP=
1.65
18
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR
AUD=
0.87
US DOLLAR / RUSSIAN ROUBLE
RUB=
34.38
18
US DOLLAR / TURKISH LIRA
TRY=
2.32
18
US DOLLAR / SOUTH AFRICAN RAND
ZAR=
11.10
15
US DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL
BRL=
2.41
18
26
US DOLLAR / MEXICAN PESO
MXN=
13.47
U+
18
25
EURO / US DOLLAR
1.54%
long
Position
long
21.10.2013
Rec.Date
16.09.2013
800.00
Rec. Price
1.59
3.2%
P&L
3.7%
0.83%
YTD Perf.
-0.26%
-2.25%
long
06.11.2013
32.37
6.2%
4.64%
long
04.11.2013
10.10
9.9%
6.19%
long
06.12.2013
2.32
3.6%
1.91%
open long 24.01.2014
13.38
0.7%
3.40%
8.45%
EUR=
1.37
16
-0.44%
EURO / BRITISH POUND
EURGBP=
0.83
-0.18%
EURO / SWISS FRANC
EURCHF=
1.23
EURO / JAPANESE YEN
EURJPY=
140.33
12
-0.11%
long
02.09.2013
129.71
8.2%
-2.99%
rate fluctuations.
Page 3
24.01.2014
MSCI World Stock Market Index and Global-40 Stock Markets Model
Daily Chart
Mt 0
1700
The MSCI World Stock Market Index is still in its short-term

consolidation and also the momentum picture for the shortand the medium-term time horizon is still unstable. However,
as long as there is no clear breakout from the rising wedge,
we keep our medium-term outlook neutral.
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
-800
Short-term momentum (ST MOM)
Medium-term momentum (MT MOM)
2012
2013
2014
GREEN = The Stock Market is rising. RED = The Stock Market is declining.
TOTAL
SCORE
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
14
13
13
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
9
9
9
8
7
7
6
6
6
5
3
3
3
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
STOCK
MODEL
MODEL
MARKETS
TREND
RELATIVE PERF
CANADA
ROMANIA
INDONESIA
NEW ZEALAND
TAIWAN
GERMANY
HUNGARY
INDIA
SOUTH AFRICA
DENMARK
PHILIPPINE
CZECH REP
ITALY
POLAND
SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND
THAILAND
UK
NORWAY
SPAIN
AUSTRIA
FRANCE
NETHERLAND
RUSSIA
MEXICO
USA
BELGIUM
JAPAN
PORTUGAL
MALAYSIA
AUSTRALIA
CHINA
FINLAND
KOREA
GREECE
HONG KONG
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
SINGAPORE
TURKEY
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
neutral
OUTPERFORM
neutral
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
neutral
OUTPERFORM
OUTPERFORM
neutral
neutral
neutral
OUTPERFORM
neutral
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
neutral
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
underperform
13
14
13
40
17
15
8
40
51.0%
ST
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
MT
SHORT-TERM
SCORE ST MOM
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
13D AVG 21D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
47.5% (0% max bearish, 100% max bullish.)

UP
DOWN
FLAT
18
22
40
45%
55%
100%
16
24
40
40%
60%
100%
23
17
40
58%
43%
100%
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
3
2
1
2
1
3
3
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
0
1
2
2
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
LT
MEDIUM TERM
SCORE MT MOM
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
34D AVG 55D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

11
29
40
28%
73%
100%
28
12
40
70%
30%
100%
24
16
40
60%
40%
100%
LONG-TERM
SCORE LT MOM
3
3
2
2
2
3
1
3
3
3
1
2
3
0
2
2
0
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
1
0
3
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
89D AVG 144D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0

14
26
40
35%
65%
100%
26
14
40
65%
35%
100%
30
10
40
75%
25%
100%
rate fluctuations.
Page 4
24.01.2014
MSCI Emerging Stock Market Index and Emerging Countries Model

Daily Chart
Mt 0
1050
1000
950
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is again

breaking below the support at around 970.
The short-term momentum is currently in a
bottom process and signals that a pullback
is possible. However, the overall mediumterm view remains neutral.
900
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
2013
2014
GREEN = The Stock Market is rising. RED = The Stock Market is declining.
TOTAL
SCORE
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
12
12
12
11
10
8
7
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
SHORT-TERM
ST
TREND
SCORE
MOM
13D
21D
SCORE
MOM
34D
55D
SCORE
MOM
89D
144D
JORDAN
LEBANON
MALTA
QATAR
ROMANIA
SLOVAKIA
PERU
EGYPT
HUNGARY
BULGARIA
ECUADOR
OMAN
SLOVENIA
VENEZUELA
CROATIA
LITHUANIA
NIGERIA
SRI LANKA
TUNISIA
CZECH REP.
KENYA
NAMIBIA
PAKISTAN
POLAND
MOROCCO
RUSSIA
MEXICO
CHILE
UKRAINE
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
COLOMBIA
ESTONIA
LATVIA
TURKEY
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
1
3
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
2
1
2
2
3
1
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
1
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
3
0
3
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
19
35
46%
54%
100%
25
10
35
71%
29%
100%
25
10
35
71%
29%
100%
19
16
35
54%
46%
100%
25
10
35
71%
29%
100%
22
13
35
63%
37%
100%
17
18
35
49%
51%
100%
23
12
35
66%
34%
100%
24
11
35
69%
31%
100%
62.5%
*
*
*
*
62.9%
UP
DOWN
FLAT
23
8
4
35
LT
LONG TERM
MODEL
COUNTRIES
MT
MEDIUM TERM
EMERGING
62.9%
61.0%
rate fluctuations.
Page 5
24.01.2014
Index Constituents Momentum Cylce Model

The Index Constituents Momentum Model shows the percentage of the single securities in the different momentum stages
Theoretical momentum cycle
Advancing quadrant: Momentum is above the zero line and rising
Down quadrant: Momentum is above the zero line and falling
Zero line
Up quadrant: Momentum is below the zero line and rising
Terminating quadrant: Momentum is below the zero line and falling
S&P 500 Index Constituents
STOXX 600 Index Constituents
NIKKEI 225 Index Constituents
1325 Stocks from S&P 500, STOXX 600 and NIKKEI 225
Page 6
24.01.2014
USA S&P 500 Index
Daily Chart
Mt 0
1850
1800
The S&P 500 Index remains in its narrow consolidation

range between 1810 and 1850. Given the falling short-term
momentum and the unfolding top in the medium-term
momentum, we still expect an ongoing consolidation.
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
2012
S O
D 2013
M A
N D
2014
M A
Canada TSE Composite Index

Mt 0
Daily Chart
Both, the short- and the medium-term momentum

for the TSE Composite Index remain unstable.
Given this situation in our momentum indicators,
we still prefer a neutral rating for the 3-6 months
investment horizon.
14000
13500
13000
12500
12000
11500
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
2012
S O
2013
M A
2014
M A
rate fluctuations.
Page 7
24.01.2014
Europe Eurostoxx 50 Index

Mt 0
Daily Chart
The Eurostoxx 50 Index failed to cross the resistance

at round 3150/3200 so far. Both, the short- and the
medium-term momentum are still falling. For the
moment we keep our rating unchanged and wait for
clearer indications.
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1000
500
-500
2012
A M
D 2013
M A
D 2014
M A
U.K. FTSE 100 Index
Daily Chart
Mt -
6900
6800
6700
6600
6500
6400
6300
6200
6100
6000
5900
5800
5700
5600
5500
5400
5300
5200
The FTSE 100 Index remains still below the

highs from May 2013. The short-term
momentum is falling and signals a potential
test of the 55-day moving average. Thus, we
keep our rating unchanged.
500
-500
2012
A M
D 2013
M A
M J
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 8
24.01.2014
Germany DAX
Daily Chart
10000
Mt 0
9500
The Dax is heading towards the short-term support at

around 9500. Given, the falling short-term momentum
and the flat medium-term momentum, we expect an
ongoing consolidation and keep our rating neutral.
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
500
-500
2012
A M
D 2013
M A
D 2014
M A
Switzerland Swiss Market Index SMI
Daily Chart
Mt 8500
The Swiss Market Index plunged below the highs

from May and is now heading toward the 55-day
moving average. The short-term momentum
remains falling and indicates further weakness.
Thus, we keep our rating unchanged.
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
500
-500
2012
M J
D 2013
M A
M J
D 2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 9
24.01.2014
Japan Nikkei 225 Index
Daily Chart
Mt 0
16000
15000
The Nikkei 225 Index is again lingering close to the

May 2013 and is currently testing the 55-day
moving average. Given the flat medium-term
momentum it is likely that the consolidation will
continue.
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
D 2013
M A
2014
Australia ASX 200 Index
Daily Chart
Mt 0
5500
The ASX 200 Index failed to cross the trendline

resistance and is again below the 55-day moving
average. As long as there is no clear breakout
we reiterate our neutral view.
5000
4500
4000
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
2012
A M
2013
M A
D 2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 10
24.01.2014
China HSCE Index
Daily Chart
The HSCE Index is currently testing the

support at around 10,200. If this level
fails to hold the next key support is just
below at around 10,000. At the
moment we keep our raging unchanged
and wait for clearer indications.
Mt 0
12500
12000
0.0%
11500
23.6%
11000
38.2%
10500
50.0%
10000
61.8%
9500
9000
100.0%
8500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
A M
D 2013
M A
2014
China SSEC Composite Index
Daily Chart
2500
2450
Mt 0
2400
2350
2300
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
Given the mixed momentum picture we

keep our rating on neutral and wait for
clearer indications.
1950
1900
1850
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012 M
A M
O N
2013 M
A M
O N
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 11
24.01.2014
MSCI UAE Index
Daily Chart
450
The short-term momentum is still falling and

indicates that a consolidation could follow.
However, the medium-term technicals are
intact and signals that the larger uptrend
should continue thereafter.
400
350
300
250
200
150
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
2013
M A
N D
2014
M A
Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index
Daily Chart
The Tadawul Index remains in its solid uptrend also the medium-term
momentum signals further strength.
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
1000
500
-500
2012
M A
A S O N D
2013
M A
M J
A S
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 12
24.01.2014
CS Commodities Benchmark Total Return Index

Daily Chart
6400
6300
6200
Mt 0
6100
6000
5900
5800
5700
5600
5500
5400
5300
5200
Remains in the middle of the indicated trading-range. Momentum

indicators are conflicting. We reiterate our medium-term neutral
view.
5100
500
-500
2012
2013
N D
2014
GREEN = The Commodity is rising. RED = The Commodity is declining.

COMMODITY
PRICES
MODEL
ST
SCORE
POS
SCORE
ST MOM
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
12
12
12
12
10
9
9
9
8
7
7
6
5
3
3
3
3
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
HEATING OIL
LIVE CATTLE
NATURAL GAS
NICKEL
YELLOW MAIZ
COTTON
COCOA
FEEDER CATTLE
LIGHT CRUDE OIL
SUNFLOWER SEED
CORN
LUMBER FUTURE
PLATINUM
PORK BELLIES
WSTERN LUMBER
ORANGE JUICE
GAS OIL
GOLD
OATS
PALLADIUM
ZINC
BRENT CRUDE OIL
GASOLINE
SILVER
ROBUSTA COFFEE
COFFEE 'C'
LEAD
SOYABEAN MEAL
SOYABEANS
CBT-WHEAT CONT.
HG COPPER
SOYABEAN OIL
SUGAR #11
TIN
ROUGH RICE
ALLOY STEEL
ALUMINIUM
LEAN HOGS
SCRAP STEEL
WHITE SUGAR
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
3
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
54.7%
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
56.7%
UP
DOWN
FLAT
20
13
7
40
SHORT-TERM
MT
13D AVG 21D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0% max bearish, 100% max bullish.)
25
15
40
63%
38%
21
19
40
53%
48%
22
18
40
55%
45%
MEDIUM TERM
SCORE
MT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
1
3
3
2
2
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
55.0%
LT
34D AVG 55D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
18
40
55%
45%
20
20
40
50%
50%
24
16
40
60%
40%
LONG-TERM
SCORE
LT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
1
3
0
2
3
0
2
2
1
0
3
2
3
1
1
0
1
3
2
1
0
0
3
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
48.3%
89D AVG 144D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
23
40
43%
58%
22
18
40
55%
45%
19
21
40
48%
53%
rate fluctuations.
Page 13
24.01.2014
Gold spot price
Daily Chart
1800
261.8%
1750
Mt 0
1700
1650
1600
161.8%
1550
1500
Gold remains inside a long-term downtrend. However,

medium-term momentum continues to improve. Next key
resistance area is between 1300 and 1350. We reiterate our
neutral view.
1450
100.0%
1400
1350
61.8%
50.0%
38.2%
23.6%
1300
1250
1200
0.0%
1150
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
2013
M A
2014
M A
Silver spot price
Daily Chart
38
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
Mt 0
Silver remains inside a long-term downtrend. On the other

hand, medium-term momentum continues to improve. We
reiterate our overall neutral view.
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
2012
2013
M A
2014
M A
rate fluctuations.
Page 14
24.01.2014
Crude Oil (WTI) continuous Future
Daily Chart
Mt 0
110
105
100
95
90
85
Momentum indicators are improving and the overall chartpattern remains neutral. We reiterate our neutral view.
80
75
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
S O
2013
M A
2014
Copper continuous Future
Daily Chart
Mt 0
8500
8000
7500
The sideways range remains valid and momentum is

conflicting. We reiterate our overall neutral view for
Copper.
7000
6500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
2013
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 15
24.01.2014
US 10-year T-Notes Yield Index and the Global-35 Interest Rates Model
Weekly Chart (Yield Index = Yield x 10)
The 10-year yield did not break so far the key resistance at around
3.0%. However, medium-term momentum is now rising again. We
expect further upside potential.
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
5000
4000
3000
Long-term momentum
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
Medium-term momentum
2007
2008
2009
2010
-4000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
GREEN=Yield is rising, Bond Price declining. RED=Yield is declining, Bond Price is rising.
TOTAL PREV SWAP RATE

00.01.1900
SCORE DAY
18
18
18
16
9
9
9
8
8
8
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
UP
UP
FLAT
UP
DOWN
DOWN
UP
UP
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
S. AFRICA 2 YR
S. AFRICA 10 YR
UK 2 YR
CZECH REP 2Y
NORWAY 2 YR
SWEDEN 2 YR
US 2 YR
CANADA 2 YR
N. ZEALAND 2 YR
UK 20 YR
JAPAN 10 YR
JAPAN 2 YR
UK 10 YR
US 10 YR
UK 30 YR
CZECH REP 10Y
GERMANY 2 YR
JAPAN 30 YR
SWEDEN 10 YR
JAPAN 20 YR
NORWAY 10 YR
S. AFRICA 20 YR
SWITZERL. 2 YR
N. ZEALAND 10 YR
AUSTRALIA 10 YR
GERMANY 10 YR
GERMANY 20 YR
GERMANY 30 YR
AUSTRALIA 2 YR
CANADA 10 YR
SWITZERL.10 YR
SWITZERL. 20 YR
SWITZERL. 30 YR
US 20 YR
US 30 YR
6.44
8.44
1.01
0.55
1.83
1.83
0.50
-0.10
3.80
3.28
0.86
0.21
2.83
2.88
3.32
1.94
0.49
1.81
2.71
1.59
3.17
1.59
0.10
5.05
4.44
1.97
2.56
2.60
2.76
2.87
1.43
1.92
1.97
3.54
3.66
MODEL
POS
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
27.3%
ST
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
3
3
3
3
2
2
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19.0%
YIELDS
UP
YIELDS DOWN
YIELDS
FLAT
4
25
6
35
SHORT-TERM
SCORE ST MOM
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
MT
13D AVG 21D AVG

1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(0% bearish, 100% bullish.)
10
25
35
29%
71%
100%
6
29
35
17%
83%
100%
3
3
3
3
1
1
3
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33.3%
4
31
35
11%
89%
100%
MEDIUM TERM
SCORE MT MOM
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
LT
34D AVG 55D AVG

1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
3
1
1
1
3
1
3
3
2
1
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
14
35
60%
40%
100%
6
29
35
17%
83%
100%
40.0%
8
27
35
23%
77%
100%
LONG-TERM
SCORE LT MOM
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
89D AVG 144D AVG

1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
12
35
66%
34%
100%
10
25
35
29%
71%
100%
9
26
35
26%
74%
100%
rate fluctuations.
Page 16
24.01.2014
US 10-year Yield Index (Yield x 10)
Daily Chart
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
0.0%
Watch the key resistance at 3.0%. Mediumterm momentum established a bottom and is
now rising but short-term momentum is
declining.
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
2013
2014
US Total Return 7-10 year Government Bond Index
Daily Chart
650
645
640
635
630
625
620
615
610
605
600
595
590
585
580
575
570
565
Mt -
The overall chart and momentum picture remains

in favor of further weakness, despite the recent
upside acceleration in the short-term momentum.
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
2012
2013
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 17
24.01.2014
Japanese Government Bond Yield
Daily Chart
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
Japanese Yields are likely to consolidate.

Momentum indicators are conflicting.
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
2012
2013
2014
Japanese Total Return 7-10 year Government Bond Index
Daily Chart
290
Mt 0
285
280
The Japanese Total Return is likely to enter a

consolidation as indicated by the falling medium-term
momentum indicator. We reiterate our neutral stance.
275
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
2012
D 2013
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 18
24.01.2014
Swiss Government Bond Yield
Daily Chart
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
Due to the conflicting momentum picture we do not

expect a major directional move.
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
2012
2013
2014
Swiss Total Return 7-10 year Government Bond Index
Daily Chart
330
Mt 0
325
320
The overall trading range remains intact.

Momentum indicators are conflicting.
315
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
2012
2013
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 19
24.01.2014
U.K. Government Bond Yield
Daily Chart
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
Dropped back from the upper band of the

trading range.
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2012
2013
2014
U.K. Total Return 7-10 year Government Bond Index
Daily Chart
765
Mt 0
760
755
750
745
740
735
730
725
720
The chart picture remains choppy. We reiterate our

overall neutral outlook.
715
710
705
700
695
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
2012
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013
Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec 2014
Mar Apr
rate fluctuations.
Page 20
24.01.2014
Italian Government Bond Yield
Daily Chart
7.0
Further weakness is expected.
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
2012
2013
2014
Italian Total Return 7-10 year Government Bond Index
Daily Chart
800
Mt +
750
700
We reiterate our medium-term positive view on the

Italian TR, despite the weakening momentum
indicators. The overall uptrend remains intact for now.
650
600
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
2012
2013
2014
rate fluctuations.
Page 21
24.01.2014
US Dollar/Swiss Franc and the Global-38 US Dollar Model
Daily Chart
Medium-term momentum is rising but short-term momentum is in

a topping process. We reiterate our overall neutral view.
Resistances are at 0.92/0.925/0.93; Key support level remains
close to 0.89.
Mt 0
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.88
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
2012
2013
2014
GREEN = USD is rising / Currency is declining. RED = USD is declining / Currency is rising
TOTAL
SCORE
DAY
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
15
15
14
14
12
9
9
7
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
0
UP
UP
FLAT
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
UP
UP
UP
DOWN
UP
FLAT
FLAT
UP
FLAT
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
DOWN
DOWN
DAY
US DOLLAR
IN 38 CURRENCIES
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
/ ARGENTINIAN PESO
/ AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
/ BRAZILIAN REAL
/ CANADIAN DOLLAR
/ CHILEAN PESO
/ COLUMBIAN PESO
/ HONG KONG DOLLAR
/ MALAYSIAN RINGGIT
/ MEXICAN PESO
/ PHILIPPINE PESO
/ RUSSIAN ROUBLE
/ SINGAPORE DOLLAR
/ TAIWANESE DOLLAR
/ TURKISH LIRA
/ SOUTH KOREAN WON
/ INDONESIAN RUPIAH
/ PERUVIAN SOL
/ SOUTH AFRICAN RAND
/ HUNGARY FORINT
/ INDIAN RUPEE
/ ROMANIAN LEU
/ CHINESE YUAN
/ THAI BAHT
/ POLISH ZLOTY
/ JAPANESE YEN
/ N. ZEALAND DOLLAR
/ CROATIAN KUNA
/ SWISS FRANC
/ CZECH KORUNA
/ NORWEGIAN KRONE
/ BULGARIAN LEVI
/ DANISH KRONE
/ ESTONIAN KROON
/ EURO
/ LATVIAN LAT
/ LITHUANIAN LITA
/ SWEDISH KRONA
/ BRITISH POUND
ST
TOTAL
SCORE
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
61.1%
SHORT-TERM
SCORE ST MOM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
1
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
MT
13D AVG 21D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
19
19
38
50%
50%
100%
21
17
38
55%
45%
100%
22
16
38
58%
42%
100%
54.4%
UP
DOWN
FLAT
21
14
3
38
MEDIUM-TERM
SCORE MT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
3
1
3
2
2
1
2
2
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
LT
34D AVG 55D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
5
38
87%
13%
100%
25
13
38
66%
34%
100%
22
16
38
58%
42%
100%
70.2%
LONG-TERM
SCORE LT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
2
1
3
1
3
0
2
0
0
0
3
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
89D AVG 144D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
13
38
66%
34%
100%
24
14
38
63%
37%
100%
23
15
38
61%
39%
100%
63.2%
rate fluctuations.
Page 22
24.01.2014
US Dollar/Japanese Yen and the Global-38 Japanese Yen Model
Daily Chart
105
100
95
90
Mt 0
Short-term momentum shows a negative

divergence. Furthermore, the 105 resistance is still
not cleared. We reiterate our neutral view.
85
80
75
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
2012
2013
2014
GREEN = JPY is rising / Currency is declining. RED = JPY is declining / Currency is rising
TOTAL
SCORE
PREV
DAY
JAPANESE YEN
IN 38 CURRENCIES
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
11
10
9
9
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
4
1
0
UP
UP
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
UP
UP
FLAT
DOWN
FLAT
UP
FLAT
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
DOWN
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
JPY
/ ARGENTINIAN PESO
/ AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
/ BRAZILIAN REAL
/ CANADIAN DOLLAR
/ CHILEAN PESO
/ COLUMBIAN PESO
/ RUSSIAN ROUBLE
/ TURKISH LIRA
/ PHILIPPINE PESO
/ INDONESIAN RUPIAH
/ KOREAN WON
/ MEXICAN PESO
/ SINGAPORE DOLLAR
/ TAIWANESE DOLLAR
/ S AFRICAN RAND
/ INDIAN RUPEE
/ PERUVIAN SOL
/ THAI BAHT
/ HUNGARIY FORINT
/ ROMANIAN LEU
/ HONG KONG DOLLAR
/ N ZEALAND DOLLAR
/ US DOLLAR
/ POLISH ZLOTY
/ PAKISTAN RUPEE
/ CROATIAN KUNA
/ CZECH KORUNA
/ SWISS FRANC
/ BULGARIAN LEVI
/ DANISH KRONE
/ ESTONIAN KROON
/ EURO
/ LATVIAN LAT
/ LITHUANIAN LITA
/ SLOVAK KORUNA
/ NORWEGIAN KRONE
/ SWEDISH KRONA
/ BRITISH POUND
ST
TOTAL
SCORE
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
66.4%
SHORT-TERM
SCORE ST MOM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
MT
13D AVG 21D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
20
18
38
53%
47%
100%
27
11
38
71%
29%
100%
36
2
38
95%
5%
100%
72.8%
UP
DOWN
FLAT
23
10
5
38
MEDIUM-TERM
SCORE MT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
1
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
LT
34D AVG 55D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
16
38
58%
42%
100%
33
5
38
87%
13%
100%
18
20
38
47%
53%
100%
64.0%
LONG-TERM
SCORE LT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
89D AVG 144D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37
1
38
97%
3%
100%
12
26
38
32%
68%
100%
10
28
38
26%
74%
100%
51.8%
rate fluctuations.
Page 23
24.01.2014
British Pound/US Dollar and the Global-38 British Pound Model
Daily Chart
Mt +
1.60
1.55
The pound is resuming its impressive technical uptrend. Our

scoring model below as well as our momentum indicators
have improved. We reiterate our overall positive view and we
expect further upside.
1.50
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
2012
2013
2014
GREEN = GBP is rising / Currency is declining. RED = GBP is declining / Currency is rising
TOTAL PREV BRITISH POUND
SCORE DAY IN 38 CURRENCIES
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
13
13
11
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
GBP / ARGENTINIAN PESO

GBP / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
GBP / BRAZILIAN REAL
GBP / CANADIAN DOLLAR
GBP / CHILEAN PESO
GBP / COLUMBIAN PESO
GBP / CROATIAN KUNA
GBP / HONG KONG DOLLAR
GBP / HUNGARIY FORINT
GBP / INDIAN RUPEE
GBP / INDONESIAN RUPIAH
GBP / KOREAN WON
GBP / MEXICAN PESO
GBP / N ZEALAND DOLLAR
GBP / PERUVIAN SOL
GBP / PHILIPPINE PESO
GBP / RUSSIAN ROUBLE
GBP / S AFRICAN RAND
GBP / SINGAPORE DOLLAR
GBP / TAIWANESE DOLLAR
GBP / THAI BAHT
GBP / TURKISH LIRA
GBP / UKRAINIAN HRYVNIA
GBP / US DOLLR
GBP / JAPANESE YEN
GBP / PAKISTAN RUPEE
GBP / DANISH KRONE
GBP / ESTONIAN KROON
GBP / EURO
GBP / LATVIAN LAT
GBP / LITHUANIAN LITA
GBP / POLISH ZLOTY
GBP / ROMANIAN LEU
GBP / SLOVAK KORUNA
GBP / SWISS FRANC
GBP / CZECH KORUNA
GBP / NORWEGIAN KRONE
GBP / SWEDISH KRONA
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
93.1%
UP
DOWN
FLAT
ST
TOTAL
SCORE
37
0
1
38
SHORT-TERM
SCORE ST MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
MT
13D AVG 21D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
26
12
38
68%
32%
100%
38
0
38
100%
0%
100%
38
0
38
100%
0%
100%
89.5%
MEDIUM-TERM
SCORE MT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
LT
34D AVG 55D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
34
4
38
89%
11%
100%
37
1
38
97%
3%
100%
38
0
38
100%
0%
100%
95.6%
LONG-TERM
SCORE LT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
89D AVG 144D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
37
1
38
97%
3%
100%
38
0
38
100%
0%
100%
38
0
38
100%
0%
100%
99.1%
rate fluctuations.
Page 24
24.01.2014
Euro/US Dollar and the Global-38 Euro Model
Daily Chart
1.40
1.39
1.38
1.37
1.36
1.35
1.34
1.33
1.32
1.31
1.30
1.29
1.28
1.27
1.26
1.25
1.24
1.23
1.22
1.21
1.20
0.0%
Mt 0
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
EUR/USD failed to break the 1.38 resistance so far.

Supports are at 1.34/1.33/1.32. We reiterate our
161.8%
overall neutral view.
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
2012
2013
2014
GREEN = EUR is rising / Currency is declining. RED = EUR is declining / Currency is rising
TOTAL PREV EURO
SCORE DAY IN 38 CURRENCIES
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
13
12
12
11
11
10
8
8
7
3
2
0
0
UP
UP
FLAT
UP
UP
UP
UP
DOWN
DOWN
UP
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
UP
UP
UP
UP
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
UP
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
UP
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
UP
DOWN
DOWN
UP
UP
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
/ ARGENTINIAN PESO
/ AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
/ BRAZILIAN REAL
/ BULGARIAN LEVI
/ CANADIAN DOLLAR
/ CHILEAN PESO
/ COLUMBIAN PESO
/ INDIAN RUPEE
/ KOREAN WON
/ MEXICAN PESO
/ PERUVIAN SOL
/ PHILIPPINE PESO
/ RUSSIAN ROUBLE
/ S AFRICAN RAND
/ SINGAPORE DOLLAR
/ TAIWANESE DOLLAR
/ THAI BAHT
/ TURKISH LIRA
/ DANISH KRONE
/ HUNGARY FORINT
/ CROATIAN KUNA
/ HONG KONG DOLLAR
/ INDONESIAN RUPIAH
/ US DOLLAR
/ ROMANIAN LEU
/ CHINESE YUAN
/ JAPANESE YEN
/ POLISH ZLOTY
/ CZECH KORUNA
/ LATVIAN LAT
/ PAKISTAN RUPEE
/ N ZEALAND DOLLAR
/ NORWEGIAN KRONE
/ SWISS FRANC
/ BRITISH POUND
/ SWEDISH KRONA
/ ESTONIAN KROON
/ LITHUANIAN LITA
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
FLAT
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
DOWN
78.1%
UP
DOWN
FLAT
ST
TOTAL
SCORE
28
4
6
38
SHORT-TERM
SCORE ST MOM
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
3
2
2
2
1
3
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
MT
13D AVG 21D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
8
38
79%
21%
100%
31
7
38
82%
18%
100%
30
8
38
79%
21%
100%
79.8%
MEDIUM-TERM
SCORE MT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
3
1
2
3
1
3
0
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
LT
34D AVG 55D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
26
12
38
68%
32%
100%
28
10
38
74%
26%
100%
32
6
38
84%
16%
100%
75.4%
LONG-TERM
SCORE LT MOM
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
0
3
2
1
0
3
1
0
2
0
0
89D AVG 144D AVG
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
27
11
38
71%
29%
100%
30
8
38
79%
21%
100%
32
6
38
84%
16%
100%
78.1%
rate fluctuations.
Page 25
24.01.2014
US Dollar/Mexican Peso
Daily Chart
Mt U +
14.5
The US Dollar is gaining strength against the Mexican peso.

Momentum indicators are both rising and indicate further
upside potential. We upgrade our medium-term view from
neutral to POSITIVE.
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
2012
S O
2013
M A
2014
M A
US Dollar/Russian Rouble
Daily Chart
Mt +
34.5
34.0
33.5
33.0
32.5
32.0
31.5
31.0
30.5
30.0
The US Dollar against the Russian Rouble continues to rally.

Momentum remains strong. We reiterate our overall positive
view and expect further upside potential.
29.5
29.0
28.5
500
-500
2012
2013
M A
N D
2014
M A
rate fluctuations.
Page 26
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24.01.

Technical Investment Weekly

International Chart Outlook

Stock markets are tracing out a correction as risky assets are

Credit Suisse Relationship Managers (RMs) and Investment

S & P 500 Index (hourly chart)

S&P 500 INDEX

Rolf Bertschi, Managing Director, rolf.bertschi@credit-suisse.com

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET INDICES

MSCI WORLD STOCKS

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS

USA S&P 500 INDEX

Rec.Date Rec. Price

CANADA COMPOSITE INDEX

EUROPE EUROSTOXX 50 INDEX

U.K. FTSE 100 INDEX

DENMARK OMXC20 INDEX

FINLAND OMXH GEN PI INDEX

NORWAY OSE ALL SHARE INDEX

SWEDEN OMXS30 INDEX

PORTUGAL PSI GENERAL

ITALY MIB INDEX

GREECE ATHEX COMPOSITE

SPAIN IBEX 35 INDEX

RUSSIA RTS INDEX

JAPAN NIKKEI 225

AUSTRALIA ALL ORDINARIES

CHINA SHANGHAI A SHARE

CHINA SHANGHAI B SHARE

CHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE

HONG KONG CHINA ENTERPRISES

INDONESIA IDX COMPOSITE INDEX

MALAYSIA FTSE BURSA KLCI INDEX

HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX

PHILIPPINES PSE INDEX

SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX

TAIWAN WEIGHTED INDEX

THAILAND SET INDEX

International Chart Outlook

LIGHT CRUDE OIL

BRENT CRUDE OIL

INDUSTRIAL METALS INDEX

USA 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

CANADA 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

GLOBAL BOND MARKETS

GERMANY 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

SWITZERLAND 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

U.K. 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

ITALY 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

SPAIN 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

JAPAN 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

AUSTRALIA 7-10 YR TOTAL RETURN

US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC

US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR

US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN

BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

US DOLLAR / RUSSIAN ROUBLE

US DOLLAR / TURKISH LIRA

US DOLLAR / SOUTH AFRICAN RAND

US DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL

US DOLLAR / MEXICAN PESO

open long 24.01.2014

EURO / BRITISH POUND