Review for Test 3

Show your work. Check confidence interval and hypothesis test calculations with TI-83
functions. Show the functions and the arguments to the functions.
1. Explain what standard error is.
It is the standard deviation of a sampling distribution of size n = n0, where n0 is some
positive integer.
2. How do the tails of the t distribution differ from the tails of the standard normal distribution?
Theyre fatter and longer. (For 1 df, theyre so fat that there is no mean Cauchy
distribution). As df gets bigger, they get closer and closer to normal distribution.
3. The following data represent the ages of a random sample of people who were unsuccessful

in winning promotion: 34, 37, 37, 38, 41, 42, 43, 44, 44, 45, 45, 45, 46, 48, 49, 53, 53, 54, 54,
55, 56, 57, 60 ->L2
a. What is the mean and standard deviation? 46.96, 7.220 (mean -> C)
b. What is the estimated standard error of the sampling distribution of the mean?
s
7.220

1.506
n
23

->A

c. For a 95% confidence interval for the mean, what is ? 1 0.95 = 0.05
d. For the confidence interval, would you used z or z/2 or t or t/2 as a multiplier? t/2
Why use a z (or t) value? Use t because s is unknown, and the t-distribution allows for
uncertainty in both the mean and standard deviation.
Why use or /2 ? Use t/2 because a confidence interval, as used in our course, is a twotailed confidence interval, with /2 in each tail.
e. What is the value of the multiplier specified in part c. above in this case (precise to 4
significant digits) ?
t / 2 , df 22 2.074

(TI-83: TInterval, xbar = 0, sx=(23), n=23, C-level = 0.95)

Check: tcdf (-2.074, 2.074, 22) = 0.9500.
(stored in upper (VARS->STAT->TEST->upper))

f. What is the margin of error? t / 2 ,df 22

s
2.074 1.506 3.122 (A*upper->B)
n

g. How could we (assuming we could redo this experiment) decrease the margin of error?
Increase n, the size of the sample.
h. What is the point estimate for the estimate of the age of failure? 46.96 years
Why did you use this number? Because the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the
population mean, and the best estimate of the population mean.
i. What is the 95% confidence interval for the age of failure?
46.96 3.122 ( 43.83,50.08)

j. How can you check your work? TI-83: TInterval, input=data, List=L2 C-level = 0.95) =
(43.83, 50.08)
k. Is it necessary in this case that the distribution of the observations is bell-shaped? No.
l. Why or why not? Although n is not large (23), we know that the two-sided t confidence
interval is robust against non-normality, as long as there are no outliers (and there are
none, since all values lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean).
m. Write a statement interpreting this confidence interval.
The estimate for the average age of people unsuccessful in obtaining promotion is 46.96
years. With 95% confidence, we can say that the true mean of the average age of people
unsuccessful in obtaining promotion lies between 43.83 years and 50.08 years.
n. How would you explain to someone unfamiliar with statistics what 95% confidence in
the computed interval means?
That, on average, if we took 23 samples over and over again, that the true mean would be
captured by the confidence interval 95 times out of 100 tries.
4. We are interested in increasing the number of students who pass the 9th grade in a certain

school system. In 2005, 8928 of 9340 pass. In 2006, 9204 of 9516 pass.
a. Find 95% confidence intervals for the number who pass for the two years.
2005: est of 0.956 (0.952, 0.960)
2006: est of 0.967 (0.963, 0.971)

b. Based on a, was there an increase? Explain the reasoning. Yes. Non-overlapping

confidence intervals.

5. Gestation Period. The length of human pregnancies is approximately normally distributed

with mean = 266 days and standard deviation = 16 days. Dr. Margaret Oswiecmiski
obtains a simple random sample of 10 of her patients and obtains the following results:

279
267

260
230

261
266

266
264

255
240

(a)

Use the data to compute a point estimate for the population mean gestation period. Put the
above data in L1. Do 1-Var Stats on L1, xbar = 258.8

(b)

Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean gestation period for all of Dr.
Oswiecmiski's patients.

What is the notation for the confidence coefficient? z / 2

What is the value of the confidence coefficient? =(1-0.9)=0.1, /2 = 0.05,
invNorm(0.05) = 1.6449 A (or use Table B: 1.645)
iii.
What is the standard error of the mean? / sqrroot(10) = 16 / sqrroot(10) = 5.0596
B
iv.
What is the margin of error? A * B 1.6449 * 5.0595 = 8.322 C
v.
What is the confidence interval for the mean? 258.8 C (8.322) = (250.5, 267.1)
vi.
What is the TI-83 function for computing the confidence interval of the mean?
ZInterval
vii.
Compute the confidence interval using this function. (250.5, 267.1)
viii.
From the results of vii, how can one compute the margin of error? Subtract the point
estimate 258.8 from the upper confidence limit, 267.1 258.8 = 8.3
(c) Interpret this interval. The estimate for the mean gestation period is 258.8. A 90%
confidence interval for this mean gestation period is (250.5, 267.1).
i.
ii.

(d)

Do Dr. Oswiecmiski's patients have a mean gestation period different from 266 days?
No Why? Because the population mean ( = 266) is included in the confidence interval.

6. Weather in Chicago . The high temperature in Chicago for the month of August is
distributed approximately normally, with mean = 80 F . A random sample of 10 days
in Chicago during August 2000 results in the following data:

77
81
(a) Use

81
73

72
92

86
75

76
87

the data to compute a point estimate for the population mean high
temperature in Chicago in August. Put the above data in L2. Do 1-Var Stats on L2, xbar

= 80.0F A, sx = 6.62 B (remember sx for use in b)iii below.) Note: use VARS>Statistics->xbar and VARS->Statistics->sx to get the values to store in A and B.
(b) Construct

a 85% confidence interval for the mean high temperature in August in

Chicago.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.

(c)

What is the notation for the confidence coefficient? t / 2

What is the value of the confidence coefficient? TInterval, Stats mode, xbar=0, sx =
sqrroot(10), n=10, C-Level = 0.85, Calculate 1.5737 C (this value not found
in Table B). (VARS->Statistics->Test->Upper to get the value to store in C)
What is the standard error of the mean? Sx (from a) / sqrroot(10) = B / sqrroot(10)
= 2.092 B (you can re-use B)
What is the margin of error? B x C ( 2.092 * 1.5737) = 3.293 D
What is the confidence interval for the mean? A D = (80 3.29, 80+3.29) = (76.7,
83.3)
What is the TI-83 function for computing the confidence interval of the mean?
TInterval
Why do we use this function instead of the function we used in the previous
problem? Because we dont know the population standard deviation .
Compute the confidence interval using this function. TInterval, Data mode, List:L2 ,
Freq:1, C-Level: 0.85, Calculate (76.7, 83.3)
From the results of vii, how can one compute the margin of error? Subtract the
lower confidence limit 76.7 from the the point estimate of 80.0, 80 76.7 = 3.3
Interpret this interval. The estimate for the mean high temperature in August in
Chicago is 80.0o . An 85% confidence interval for this mean high temperature is
(76.7, 83.3).

Is there evidence that August, 2000 was normal? Yes, the sample mean is exactly equal to
the population mean, and the confidence interval for the population mean high temperature
includes the true mean.

7. How Often Do You Bathe? A Gallup poll conducted December 20-21, 1999, asked 1031
randomly selected Americans, "How often do you bathe each week?" Results of the
survey indicated that x = 6.9 and s = 2.8.
a. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean number of times Americans
bathed each week in 1999. (6.68, 7.13) (Simplest method is to use TInterval)
b. Interpret the interval. The estimated mean number of times Americans bathed each
week in 1999 is 6.9 times. A 95% confidence interval for the population mean number of
times is between 6.68 times and 7.13 times.
8. How Often Do You Bathe? A Gallup poll conducted June 29 July 4, 1950, asked 1031
Americans, "How often do you bathe each week?" Results of the survey indicated that x =
3.7 and s = 2.3.
a. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean number of times Americans
bathed each week in 1950. (3.52, 3.88)

b. Interpret the interval. The estimated mean number of times Americans bathed each
week in 1950 is 3.7 times. A 95% confidence interval for the population mean number of
times is between 3.52 times and 3.88 times.
c. Compare these results to those of Problem 7. Were Americans bathing more in 1999
than in the 1950s? Yes, Americans were bathing more in 1999 than in 1950. It is
estimated that Americans bathed 3.2 times per week more in 1999 than in 1950 (6.9
3.7 = 3.2). Comparison of the two confidence intervals show convincing evidence of a
difference, as the two 99% confidence intervals do not overlap.
9. Listed below are measured amounts of lead (in micrograms per cubic meter) in the air. The
EPA has established an air quality standard for lead of 1.5. The measurements shown
below were recorded at Building 5 of the World Trade Center site on different days
immediately following the destruction caused by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
After the collapse of the two WTC buildings, there was considerable concern about the
quality of the air. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the sample is from a
population with a mean greater than the EPA limit of 1.5 microgram per cubic meter.
5.4
.

1.10

0.42

0.73

0.48

1.10

a. What assumptions do we need to make to conduct this test of significance?

i)
ii)

That the measurements are representative of the desired population. To ensure

this assumption is reasonable, some sort of randomization should have been
used in selecting the measurements.
The distribution of the lead measurements is approximately normal.

b. Construct null and alternate hypotheses for a significance test to show the desired result.
H0: = 1.5

HA: > 1.5

c. Sketch the sampling distribution specified by the null hypothesis. Be sure to label the

mean, standard deviation, and the sample statistic.

d. What is the formula for the test statistic for this significance test?

T=

x 0
(where 0 = 1.5 in this case).
s/ n

e. What is the distribution of this statistic T ?

It is a t distribution with n 1 (6 1 = 5) degrees of freedom
f.

If we are interested in 95% confidence, what is ? 1 0.95 = 0.05

g. Is this a one tailed or a two tailed test? One tailed test.

h. There is some value, tcrit, such that if the test statistic T equals or exceeds that value,
then we can recommend rejecting the null hypothesis at the indicated level of
significance. What is this value?
If = 0.05, we can compute tcrit as follows: TInterval: xbar=0, sx = (6), n = 6, C-level =
0.9 (this is due to the fact that we are interested in a one-tailed test, and the TInterval
uses a two-tailed value, so we have to double the (i.e. = 0.10, and confidence level =
1 0.1 = 0.9). Result: tcrit = 2.015
i.

What is the value of T ?

1.538 1.5
0.0486
1.914 / 6

j.

Based on the values of tcrit and T, should we reject H0 ? No, T does not exceed tcrit .

k. How do we compute a p-value ? tcdf (0.0486, = 1E99, 5) = 0.482

l.

Is this p-value evidence against the null hypothesis? No. The p-value far exceeds the
value of = 0.05.

m. How can we check our work? Having put the data into L4 in our calculator, use T-Test,
Input: Data, 0 = 1.5, List: L4, : > 0, with results as follows:
T = 0.049 (checks)
p-value = 0.48 (checks)
n. Do the data appear normal? No, there is an outlier.

o. Was randomization used in this case? No. Note that even with the spike of the first
day, the average for 6 days is such that the measurements are not significantly higher
than 1.5 on the average.