Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Graduate Research Assistant, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Univ. of California, Berkeley.
Professor and Director, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley.
3
Professor, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley.
2
on the achievement of specified results rather than adherence to prescribed means. In a rigorous
application of PBEE, the final output is a probabilistic quantitative description of the seismic
performance of a structure using metrics that are of immediate use to engineers and other
stakeholders.
A challenge has been to implement PBEE in a way that is rigorous yet compatible with
common design, construction, and analysis procedures. Compatibility is desirable to foster
adoption of PBEE. A study was conducted of the procedures by which building construction
information is organized and by which advanced design is conducted today. A PBEE
methodology was devised consistent with this approach. The procedure was implemented in an
example building, thereby illustrating its main parts, its data needs, and the potential utility of its
results. In the implementation described here, the performance metric was the cost to repair the
structure to its original condition given earthquake damage, though other performance metrics
can be obtained by similar procedures. To maximize the usefulness of the results, a consistent
probabilistic analysis was conducted so risk of repair costs could be expressed probabilistically.
Building Description
To illustrate the PBEE methodology, a prototype building near the University of
California, Berkeley campus is designed and modeled. The prototype building is a three story
office building with regular floor plan as shown in Fig. 1.
SMRF
SMRF
SMRF
SMRF
Z
Y
frames, semi-rigid connections are modeled by reducing the beam stiffness to half the beam
flexural stiffness and limiting the strength to one-fifth of the beam moment strength. Gravity
load is uniformly distributed throughout the building. The P- effect is accounted for in the
nonlinear dynamic analysis.
Major structural and nonstructural components of the building are identified and
separated into different performance groups. Each performance group consists of one or more
building components whose performance is similarly affected by a particular engineering
demand parameter. For example, one performance group might consist of all similar
nonstructural components whose performance is sensitive to inter-story drift between the second
and third floor. Table 1 shows the performance groups used in this study.
The structural components are assigned to performance groups whose performance is
associated with inter-story drift ratio in the story where the components are located. The
nonstructural components and contents of the building are subdivided into displacementsensitive and acceleration-sensitive groups. The displacement-sensitive groups use inter-story
drift to define the performance of the group, while the acceleration-sensitive groups use absolute
acceleration at the different floor and roof levels to define the performance.
Table 1. Summary of the performance groups (PG) identified in the prototype building.
PG #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
PG Name
SH12
SH23
SH3R
EXTD12
EXTD23
EXTD3R
INTD12
INTD23
INTD3R
INTA2
INTA3
INTAR
CONT1
CONT2
CONT3
EQUIPR
Location
between levels 1 and 2
between levels 2 and 3
between levels 3 and R
between levels 1 and 2
between levels 2 and 3
between levels 3 and R
between levels 1 and 2
between levels 2 and 3
between levels 3 and R
below level 2
below level 3
below level R
at level 1
at level 2
at level 3
at level R
EDP
u1
u2
u3
u1
u2
u3
u1
u2
u3
a2
a3
aR
ag
a2
a3
aR
Components
Structural: lateral load resisting
system
Exterior enclosure: panels,
glass, etc.
Interior nonstructural drift
sensitive: partitions, doors,
glazing, etc
Interior nonstructural
acceleration sensitive: ceilings,
lights, sprinkler heads, etc
Contents: General office on
first and second floor,
computer center on third
Equipment on roof
where ui = inter-story drift at the ith story and ai = absolute acceleration at the ith floor.
Ground Shaking Hazard
Ground motions that represent the hazard at the University of California, Berkeley
campus are selected from the U.C. Berkeley Seismic Guidelines (UCB 2003). Tables 2 and
Table 3 summarized the list of the ground motions used for the dynamic analysis. For this
example, ground motions are scaled to match the target spectrum at the first-mode period of the
structure. Alternative approaches to scaling ground motions can be used. Fig. 2 shows the scaled
response spectra and the scaling factors for the ground motions used in this analysis.
Response Quantification
With the selected ground motions, a series of nonlinear dynamic analyses are used to
determine engineering demand parameters (EDPs) that will be used with fragility relations to
define performance of the different performance groups in Table 1. From the results of the
nonlinear dynamic analysis, peak structural responses are identified and summarized into EDP
matrices, one for each hazard level. Because each row of the EDP matrix is calculated by
dynamic analysis of the building for a single ground motion, the EDPs in each row are
correlated. The EDP matrix can be extended by considering any number of EDPs and any
number of ground motions. Table 4 shows the peak building response for the prototype building
for the three hazard levels considered.
Table 2. Ground motions representing the 50% in 50 years hazard level.
Earthquake
Coyote Lake,
1979/6/8
Parkfield,
Mw
Station
Coyote Lake, Dam Abutment
Gilroy # 6
Temblor
Cholome Array # 5
Cholome Array # 8
Distance
4.0
1.2
4.4
3.7
8.0
Site
C
C
C
D
D
Record
CL_clyd
CL_gil6
PF_temb
PF_cs05
PF_cs08
5.5
8.1
LV_mgnp
6.2
0.1
4.5
2.5
C
C
C
MH_clyd
MH_andd
MH_hall
5.7
6.0
1996/6/27
Livermore,
1980/1/27
Morgan Hill,
1984/4/24
Table 3. Ground motions representing 10% in 50 years and 5% in 50 years hazard levels.
Earthquake
Mw
Loma Prieta,
1989/10/17
7.0
Kobe, Japan
1995/1/17
Tottori, Japan
2000/10/6
Erzincan,
Turkey
1992/3/13
Station
Los Gatos Present Center
Saratoga Aloha Ave
Corralitos
Gavilan College
Gilroy Historic Building
Lexington Dam Abutment
Distance
3.5
8.3
3.4
9.5
6.3
Site
C
C
C
C
C
C
Record
LP_lgpc
LP_srtg
LP_cor
LP_gav
LP_gilb
LP_lex1
6.9
Kobe JM A
4.4
KB_kobj
6.6
Hino
TO_hino
6.7
Erzincan
1.8
C*
EZ_erzi
4.5
4
Target (maxAg,SF)
CLclyd (0.75g,2.68)
CLgil6 (0.27g,0.60)
PFtemb (0.53g,1.43)
PFcs05 (0.52g,1.57)
PFcs08 (0.55g,2.25)
LVmgnp (0.88g,2.96)
MHclyd (0.44g,0.50)
MHandd (0.88g,2.01)
MHhall (0.22g,0.73)
3.5
2.5
Target (maxAg,SF)
LPlgpc (0.51g,0.79)
LPsrtg (0.46g,1.28)
LPcor (0.81g,1.67)
LPgav (1.11g,3.79)
LPgilb (0.66g,2.35)
LPlex1 (0.21g,0.47)
KBkobj (0.42g,0.49)
TOhino (0.59g,0.56)
EZerzi (0.59g,1.23)
3.5
Sa [g]
Sa [g]
2.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1.5
2
Period [Sec]
2.5
3.5
0.5
1.5
2
Period [Sec]
2.5
3.5
Sa [g]
0.5
1.5
2
Period [Sec]
2.5
3.5
Figure 2. Scaled response spectra for the three different hazard levels.
Computing additional EDP realizations using nonlinear dynamic analysis is hampered by
in the paucity of recorded strong ground motions. Therefore, instead of running additional
nonlinear dynamic analyses, a joint lognormal distribution is fitted to the EDP matrix. Additional
correlated EDP vectors are generated using the correlation matrix and artificially generated
standard normal random variables (u). To do this, the EDP matrix (as shown in Table 4), X, is
first assumed to have joint lognormal distribution. The EDP matrix is then transformed to a
normal distribution, Y, by taking the natural log of the EDP matrix. The mean vector, standard
deviations and the correlation coefficient matrix are then sampled from Y. With the generated
standard normal random variables, u, additional correlated EDP vectors, y, are generated using
Eq. 5. Finally, the generated EDP vector is transformed to the lognormal distribution, x, by
taking the exponential of y. Eq. 1, 2, 3 and 4 shows the formulas used for the statistical sample.
Fig. 3 shows the process of obtaining additional correlated EDP vectors.
Table 4a. Peak response quantity table for the 50% in 50 years hazard level.
Filename
CLclyd
CLgil6
PFtemb
PFcs05
PFcs08
LVmgnp
MHclyd
MHandd
MHhall
u1 (%)
0.66
0.68
0.80
0.76
0.65
0.61
0.56
0.76
0.63
u2 (%)
1.07
0.95
0.90
1.10
0.99
0.94
0.95
0.84
0.95
u3 (%)
2.02
0.98
1.69
1.51
1.54
1.09
1.32
1.44
1.04
ag (g)
0.75
0.27
0.53
0.52
0.55
0.88
0.44
0.88
0.22
a2 (g)
1.05
0.35
0.87
1.32
0.90
1.13
0.54
1.15
0.28
a3 (g)
0.85
0.34
0.76
1.04
0.61
0.89
0.59
0.97
0.31
aR (g)
0.75
0.40
0.74
0.75
0.57
0.60
0.56
0.67
0.42
Table 4b. Peak response quantity table for the 10% in 50 years hazard level.
Filename
LPlgpc
LPsrtg
LPcor
LPgav
LPgilb
LPlex1
KBkobj
TOhino
EZerzi
u1 (%)
1.40
1.31
1.53
1.84
2.14
1.26
0.77
1.38
1.66
u2 (%)
1.83
1.47
2.56
1.89
2.63
1.90
1.69
1.76
2.23
u3 (%)
1.79
1.63
3.10
2.79
2.94
1.89
2.29
2.07
2.35
ag (g)
0.51
0.46
0.81
1.11
0.66
0.21
0.42
0.59
0.59
a2 (g)
1.02
0.94
0.97
1.64
0.77
0.36
0.76
0.69
0.77
a3 (g)
0.65
0.99
1.01
1.45
0.74
0.40
0.72
0.58
0.77
aR (g)
0.64
0.64
0.85
1.04
0.72
0.48
0.64
0.61
0.61
Table 4c. Peak response quantity table for the 5% in 50 years hazard level.
Filename
LPlgpc
LPsrtg
LPcor
LPgav
LPgilb
LPlex1
KBkobj
TOhino
EZerzi
u1 (%)
2.17
1.33
1.54
2.68
3.00
1.66
0.93
1.64
1.81
u2 (%)
2.87
1.59
2.53
2.79
3.65
2.42
1.77
2.13
2.44
u3 (%)
3.10
1.93
3.78
2.95
4.30
2.44
2.55
2.56
2.63
ag (g)
0.66
0.60
1.04
1.44
0.85
0.27
0.55
0.76
0.76
a2 (g)
1.20
1.36
1.21
1.92
0.99
0.42
0.93
0.94
0.93
a3 (g)
0.82
1.25
1.14
1.63
1.01
0.46
0.86
0.63
0.92
aR (g)
0.72
0.71
0.94
1.11
0.74
0.51
0.74
0.73
0.75
(1)
(2)
(3)
ln
(5)
Y = ln(X).
u = generated standard normal random variables.
exp
(4)
M , D , R
Different damage states are defined for each performance group in Table 1. The damage
states are defined in relation to the repair actions. For each damage state, a damage model
(fragility relation) defines the probability of damage being equal to or greater than the threshold
damage given an EDP. Fig. 4 shows an example of the fragility curves defined for the first three
performance groups. Depending on the EDP values, the probabilities of the performance group
being in each damage state can be computed. A uniformly distributed random number generator
is used to select the damage state for the performance group, given the EDP. Once the damage
state is identified, the repair quantities for each of the performance groups are located from a
lookup table, as shown in Fig. 4.
1
PG1 - SH12
0.9
DS1
DS2
DS3
DS4
0.8
0.7
P(DS>= DSi)
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
PG2 - SH23
PG3 - SH3R
DS1
DS2
DS3
DS4
DS1
DS2
DS3
DS4
DS1
DS2
DS3
DS4
Finish_protection
6000
6000
6000
6000
6000
6000
6000
6000
6000
Ceiling_system_removal
2000
3000
5000
3000
3000
5000
3000
3000
5000
Drywall_assembly_removal
800
800
6000
800
800
6000
800
800
6000
Miscellaneous_MEP
Remove_exterior_skin
5600
4000
3000
1500
Welding_protection
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
1500
Shore_beams_below_remove
12
12
12
Remove_replace_connection
3000
3000
2000
Replace_slab
70
70
1600
70
70
1600
70
70
1600
Miscellaneous_MEP_and_cleanup
Wall_framing(studs_drywall_tape_paint)
800
800
6000
800
800
6000
800
800
6000
Replace_exterior_skin(from_salvage)
5600
5600
5600
Ceiling_system
2000
3000
5000
3000
3000
5000
3000
3000
5000
U1,Max (%)
Figure 4. Performance group fragility curves and the associated repair quantities.
The process is repeated for each performance group to identify the total repair quantities
for each item in the building. In the methodology adopted here, the simulation procedure
described is used to generate a single realization of total repair quantities for the scenario
earthquake. The process is repeated a sufficiently large number of times to obtain a
representative sample of the total repair quantities. For this simplified example, the performance
groups are assumed to be statistically independent.
Loss Calculation
Once the total repair quantities are identified, the total repair cost for the building is
computed by multiplying the total repair quantity by the unit price obtained from a look-up table.
The price uncertainty is represented by using a random number generator, based on the tabulated
beta factors for the cost functions, to adjust base unit costs up or down before multiplying by
the total quantities associated with each repair measure. Fig. 5 shows the tri-linear cost function
that represented the relation between unit cost and quantity. This is the repair cost for one
realization of EDPs. The process is repeated for all the calculated total repair quantities to obtain
a distribution of costs given the hazard level represented by the IM.
Unit Cost, $
Uncertainty
Ci
Qi
Quantity
Figure 5. Cost function model for repair measures for the example building.
Fig. 6 shows the fitted lognormal distribution of the building repair cost for four different
IM levels. (Repair cost for 36-yr return period was obtained by assuming linear response of the
structure and scaling the EDP vectors according to the ratio of the hazard curves at the first mode
period, for the 36-yr and 72-yr return periods.) Curves such as these can be used to quantify the
annual frequency of the total repair cost exceeding a given threshold as follows: the complement
of each CDF (cumulative distribution function) curve presented in Fig. 6 is multiplied by the
slope of the hazard curve at the corresponding IM level; the resulting curves are integrated across
IM levels. Fig. 7 shows the annual rate of exceeding various total repair cost thresholds for all
the IM levels. Furthermore, the mean cumulative annual total repair cost can be obtained by
integrating the loss curve shown in Fig. 7 along the range of repair cost thresholds (Der
Kiureghian 2005). For this simplified example, the expected mean cumulative annual total repair
cost is approximately $US 31,300.
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
5
6
$C (dollar)
0.045
0.04
0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
0
10
6
0.5
1.5
x 10
2
$C (dollar)
2.5
3.5
4
6
x 10
In addition, with the procedure presented above, the total repair cost can be deaggregated
to identify which performance groups contribute most to the total repair cost. Such information
can be useful in making design decisions. Fig. 8 shows an example of the deaggregation of the
total repair cost for the 975 return period hazard level. It shows performance groups 1 to 6
contribute most to the total repair cost. As these performance groups are displacement-sensitive,
this suggests a more economical design (considering downstream consequences) might be
achieved by a design that reduces lateral drifts. Analyses for a stiffer structure likely would show
reduced costs for displacement-sensitive performance groups but increased costs for
acceleration-sensitive performance groups. Therefore, tradeoffs between stiff and flexible
building systems can be considered.
Distribution of repair cost for each performance group(s)
probability
0.5
0
0
5
x 10
10
Total repair cost ($C)
1 2
5
3 4
8 9
6 7
10 11
12
13 14
PG(s)
Figure 8. Cost function model for repair measures for example building.
15
16
Other information, such as the expected repair cost for a M7 earthquake scenario and
probability that repair cost exceeds a given threshold for a 975-yr return period hazard level, can
be obtained using the procedure presented above.
Conclusion