RISK ASSESSMENT

FOR INDUSTRIAL
HAZARDS
USING ALOHA
Singtam (Sikkim)
Sagnik Das, PP0007513, M. Plan 2nd Year

Singtam Overview

Singtam is a Nagar Panchayat city in district of East Sikkim, Sikkim. The Singtam
city is divided into 5 wards for which elections are held every 5 years. The Singtam
Nagar Panchayat has population of 5,868 of which 3,097 are males while 2,771 are
females as per report released by Census India 2011.
Out of total population, 2,098 were engaged in work or business activity. Of this
1,697 were males while 401 were females. In census survey, worker is defined as
person who does business, job, service, and cultivator and labour activity. Of total
2098 working population, 94.66 % were engaged in Main Work while 5.34 % of total
workers were engaged in Marginal Work.
Population of Children with age of 0-6 is 701 which is 11.95 % of total population of
Singtam (NP). In Singtam Nagar Panchayat, Female Sex Ratio is of 895 against state
average of 890. Moreover Child Sex Ratio in Singtam is around 947 compared to
Sikkim state average of 957. Literacy rate of Singtam city is 86.08 % higher than
state average of 81.42 %. In Singtam, Male literacy is around 90.35 % while female
literacy rate is 81.28 %.

Singtam Nagar Panchayat has total administration over 1,144 houses to which it
supplies basic amenities like water and sewerage. It is also authorize to build roads
within Nagar Panchayat limits and impose taxes on properties coming under its
jurisdiction.

Map of Sikkim Showing Singtam

Source: http://www.openstreetmap.org/relation/1791324#map=9/27.5765/88.6487

Topography

Singtam

Maps showing topography of the study area

Research output - DEM

The region has a maximum elevation of around 7300 feet with an average of around
4000 feet. It has several river reaches as shown in the above map. The considered
settlement lies on one of the banks of such reaches.

Built up and Land Use

The entire population is distributed over 375 structures with 1 health center and a
chemical processing factory. For the further analysis we assume that all structures
are pucca.

For the further steps we would need to estimate the population

distribution for all structures. The distribution is based on socio economic profile of
the area (HIG, MIG and LIG)

Population Distribution
Population = 5868
Assumptions = HIG 20%
= MIG 50%
= Slum = 30%
HIG = 5868 * 20% = 1173.6
LIG = 5868 * 50% = 2934
Slum = 5868 * 30% = 1760.4
Building Footprint:
HIG = (15 *15) Sq m* 4 Units = 225 *4 = 900.
MIG = 10*10*8 units = 800 Sq m
Total floor wise pop
HIG = 1173.6/40 = 29.34, Floor wise population = 29.34/5.2 = 5.64
MIG = 2934/ 40 = 73.35, Floor wise population = 73.35/5.2 = 14.10
Error Calculation,
HIG = 5.64*40*5.2 = 1173.12
MIG = 14.10*40*5.2 = 2932.8

However this assumption has certain drawbacks, like 1. The household size would differ from place to place
2. LIG, MIG and HIG would have different household sizes.
3. Average value is being considered for dimension and all other points, that
would increase the error overall

Over the next step we would compare the population (according to census) and the
estimated population based on the above socio economic assumptions.
TOT_P TOT_M
TOT_F
P_06 M_06 F_06
P_SC
5868
3097
2771 1042
701
341

M_SC
286

F_SC
148

138

P_IL
TOT_WORK_ TOT_WORK_
TOT_WORK_
P_LIT
M_LIT
F_LIT
L
M_ILL F_ILL
P
M
F
4448
2473
2277 1975
1420
624
2098
1697
401

Population as per census 2011

TOT_P
26
36

TOT_M TOT_F
1391

1239

P_06

M_06

475

314

F_06

P_SC

132

M_SC
127

F_SC
53

61

TOT_WORK_ TOT_WORK_
TOT_WORK_
P_LIT
M_LIT F_LIT
P_ILL
M_ILL
F_ILL
P
M
F
1977
1107
1002
870
342
26
923
738
158

Calculated Population of the area

The average household was assumed to be 5.2. The error here comes out to be 49%.

Threat zone analysis using ALOHA.

ALOHA, Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres is an air-dispersion model used
to evaluate hazardous chemical scenarios and determine the likely "footprint" of such
spills. ALOHA helps planners make comparisons, develop optional spill scenarios,
and help them visualize what might happen. Many clouds of chemical vapor are
colorless, and ALOHA is especially helpful in scenarios involving these chemicals.
Responders can use ALOHA as a response tool that can help them quantify what
chemical dangers could be present. It can help responders with making estimations
about how far a cloud of chemical vapor would likely go, and where. ALOHA links
chemistry, toxicology, and meteorological data. ALOHA can help firefighters make
an educated guess about what levels of the spilled chemical would likely present a
fire hazard, or a health hazard, for example.

The ALOHA program also can provide information about the levels of spilled
chemicals that are likely to seep into buildings near the source of the chemical spill,
and the program also has variables that allow firefighters to select the type of
structures near the spill and the rate of air exchanges inside the buildings. (Air
exchanges is the term for how many times in an hour the air inside a building is
replaced by outside air. The key concept in shelter-in-place is to take measures to
slow down air exchanges or to keep the chemical vapors from seeping into nearby
buildings that are downwind from the spill.)
ALOHA contains a site-specific database that incorporates the site's specific factors
such as altitude, rates of incoming solar radiation, as determined by latitude and
longitude, and stability class. Stability class refers to the amount of mixing of the air
between the upper and lower atmosphere, and whether there is an air inversion. Air
inversions tend to keep chemical gases from traveling and dissipating upwards, which
generally causes the plume to travel a longer distance. ALOHA doesn't incorporate
the effects of particulates, fires or chemical reactions, or chemical solutions or
mixtures. The use of ALOHA should be avoided in these instances except in certain
situations. The figure shown below is an example of ALOHA output with a specific
set of input regarding atmospheric data, source data and chemical type.

Source: http://blog.depiction.com/w/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/ALOHA-Plumeimported-to-Depiction.jpg

Now we intend to run a threat zone analysis for the considered area suing ALOHA
using given conditionsWe are assuming that the industry stores 1. Chlorine and in case of an explosion how
much of the population is at RISK and whats the RISK. We would assume certain
parameters, such as
The size of the tank is 24 feet long and 8 feet in diameter.
The tank contains liquid, which is stored at ambient temperature.
The fill density of the tank is 75% by volume.
The sheared-off flange creates a circular opening of about 3 inches in diameter,
and it is located at 30% of the way to the top of the tank.
At the time of the accident, the wind direction is NE (i.e. blowing from NE)
The wind speed is 5 m/s, measured at 10 m height
The weather is partly cloudy, 50% relative humidity
Ambient temperature is 12 degrees Celsius.
Using all the above inputs, the desired threat zones are -

Source: ALOHA

Source: ALOHA (Chlorine)

On exporting the threat zones over the study area, we get the above result. For the
households affected we would consider the ones falling under the confidence line.
There are 49 households to do so. We would repeat the same steps for other
chemicals.

For Benzene (BLEVE)

Source: ALOHA (Benzene)

For Methane (Toxic Area of vapor Cloud) without burning

Source: ALOHA

For Methanol (Toxic Area of vapor Cloud)

Source: ALOHA

For Ammonia (Leaking Tank) without burning

For risk calculation under each chemical we will use the formula
Risk (R) = H x (V x A)
Where,
H=Hazard expressed as probability of occurrence within a reference period
V= physical vulnerability of a particular type of element at risk (Buildings and
Population)
A= amount or cost of the particular elements at risk (example- number of buildings,
cost of buildings and number of people etc.)

Hazard
Chemical

Chlorine

Benzene

Methane

Methanol

Ammonia

Prob. Of

Twice in

Once in 5

Once in 8

Once in 5

Once in 5

Occurrence

8 years

years

Years

years

years1

Vulnerability
Chemical

Chlorine

Benzene

Methane

Methanol

Ammonia

Buildings

77 (Resi)

347 (Resi)

10 (Resi)

7 (Resi)

25 (Resi)

(V*A)

1(Industry)

1 (industry)

1(Industry)

1(Industry) 1(Industry)

1 (PHC)
Population

400+50

1805+50+5

520+50

36.4+50

130+50

(with V HH=5.2)

=450

=1860

=570

=86.4

=180

(V*A)

All the probabilities have been assumed

Risk Calculation

Chemical
Name

Chlorine

Benzene

Methane

Methanol

Ammonia

Scenario

Hazard
probability

Vulnerability X
Amount
Buildings

People

Risk
To
Buildings

To
People

Leaking
Tank
without
burn

0.00068

78

450

0.05

0.30

Thermal
Radiation
from
Fireball

0.00054

349

1860

0.188

1.00

Toxic
Area of
Vapor
Cloud

0.00034

11

570

0.003

0.19

Thermal
Radiation
from Pool
fire

0.00054

86

0.004

0.04

Leaking
Tank
without
burn

0.00054

26

180

0.014

0.09

In the above case, as all the risk apart from risk to people in case of Benzene is way
smaller than 0.10, hence the risk is very Low. Only in case of Benzene and to the
people the risk is moderate as it is equal to 1.