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Introduction
Betfair
trading.
Youve
heard
about
it
before
Im
sure,
and
maybe
youve
not
traded
before
because
it
seemed
a
little
too
hard.
Well
this
free
report
goes
some
may
to
de-mystifying
trading.
Youll
find
as
you
read
through
this
report,
that
Betfair
trading
really
is
easy,
IF
you
have
a
plan.
If
you
have
a
plan
when
you
enter
a
market
to
trade,
youll
be
as
happy
as
Hannibal
Smith
who
loves
it
when
a
plan
comes
together.
The
2
plans
I
have
for
you
are
for
the
football
and
tennis
markets,
as
these
are
the
best
trading
markets.
I
have
deliberately
chosen
easy
to
follow
strategies
in
order
to
showcase
the
key
elements
of
trading:
The
relationship
between
back
and
lay
odds.
What
happens
to
the
odds
when
players/teams
play
well
or
poorly.
How
to
determine
when
we
enter
a
market
in
order
exploit
teams
particularly
who
are
playing
poorly.
With
the
Football
Season
around
the
Corner,
and
Wimbledon
just
finished,
there
will
be
yearlong
tradable
opportunities
from
these
2
strategies
alone,
and
these
will
give
you
a
firm
grounding
into
the
concept
of
trading.
There
are
more
advanced
strategies,
but
why
complicate
matters
at
this
moment
in
time?
With
the
2
strategies
here,
youll
be
involved
in
a
niche,
and
have
a
great
opportunity
to
profit
consistently.
So
onto
Betfair
Trading
Made
Easy
In
this
Report,
I
will
be
introducing
you
to
the
basics
of
Sport
trading
on
the
leading
betting
exchange
Betfair.
By
the
end
of
the
report,
you
will
have
a
good
foundation
to
making
sports
trading
work
across
all
of
the
sports
markets
at
www.betfair.com.
We
will
begin
with
a
look
at
what
exactly
trading
is,
in
the
context
of
sports
and
the
betting
exchanges.
I
will
pass
on
my
own
personal
definition
of
trading,
and
will
introduce
you
to
the
relationship
between
back
odds
and
lay
odds
and
how
this
relationship
is
the
key
to
trading.
I
will
then
focus
on
the
major
tradable
markets
on
Betfair.
As
I
said,
my
specific
focus
will
be
on
football,
and
tennis.
We
will
then
look
at
a
Trading
Plan
of
Action,
and
then
the
real
key
to
your
success
as
a
trader.
And
that
is......
(drum
roll
please!)..
SOFTWARE.
So
lets
start
at
the
beginning.
How
did
sports
trading
evolve?
And
what,
exactly,
is
sports
trading?
Betfair
the
key
to
sports
trading
Readers
of
this
report
will
no
doubt
be
familiar
with
Betfair,
the
leading
betting
exchange.
I
will
not
go
into
detail,
suffice
to
say
that
it
allows
us
the
facility
to
back
a
selection
and
to
lay
a
selection
(laying
can
be
defined
as
backing
something
to
lose!)
It
is
this
relationship
between
the
back
odds
and
the
lay
odds
which
enable
us
to
trade
successfully.
And
trading
is
only
really
achieved
in
in
play
betting
markets.
(I
admit
that
we
can
trade
pre-
match/race
betting
markets
but
in
these
cases
we
are
reliant
on
swings
in
price
and
reading
the
market.
My
in-play
trading
market
strategy
is
far
more
reactive
to
events
and
easier
to
implement.)
Heres
a
real
example
of
trading
in
action
in
an
in-play
betting
market.
Note
especially
the
relationship
between
the
back
and
lay
odds.
Its
Wimbledon.
Serena
Williams
is
playing
Zheng.
Lets
join
the
match
on
Betfair.
Zheng
has
won
the
first
set
(arrowed
above).
This
is
a
surprise
to
Betfairians
as
you
would
expect
Serena
Williams
to
be
utterly
dominant.
The
odds
for
Serena
Williams
are
currently
priced
at
1.96
to
back
and
1.98
to
lay.
She
has
lost
the
1st
set
and
its
2-1
to
Zheng
in
the
2nd
set.
The
market
determines
this
match
as
pretty
even.
Lets
return
to
Betfair
and
see
how
Serena
has
progressed.
Serena
Williams
has
won
the
2nd
set.
Her
odds
are
now
1.19
to
back
and
1.2
to
lay.
So,
Serenas
odds
have
reduced
from
1.96
to
1.19
to
back.
Why?
Well,
at
1.96
the
match
was
well
poised
in
the
2nd
set,
and
Serena
had
lost
the
first
set.
At
1.19
Serena
had
won
the
2nd
set.
The
match
is
therefore
all
square
and
the
market
believes
that
Serena
Williams
is
closer
to
winning
the
match
(winning
the
match
is
represented
by
1.01
odds)
than
she
was
at
1.96.
Make
sense?
Odds
shorten
when
an
outcome
is
more
likely
to
occur.
(Player/Team
playing
well).
Odds
lengthen
when
a
team/player/horse
is
more
likely
to
lose.
(Player/Team
not
playing
well).
If
a
player
is
more
likely
to
win
a
match,
their
odds
will
begin
a
gradual
journey
from
where
they
are
at
present
(
1.96
for
Serena
Williams)
to
1.01
which
indicates
the
win.
Lets
look
at
Zheng
here.
A
set
up
and
2-1
in
the
2nd
set,
her
odds
were
2.02
to
back
and
2.04
to
lay.
In
decimal
terms,
2
represents
an
evens
chance,
so
the
market
cannot
split
Serena
and
Zheng
at
this
stage,
pricing
them
up
nearly
as
evens
(or
50/50)
chances
for
success.
Having
lost
the
2nd
set,
Zheng
is
less
likely
to
win
the
match
than
when
she
was
a
set
up.
Her
odds
reflect
that
lack
of
confidence
and
have
drifted
out
to
6
to
back
and
6.2
to
lay.
When
a
player
is
unlikely
to
win,
their
odds
begin
a
journey
away
from
1.01
their
odds
get
bigger
and
bigger.
And
heres
a
quick
snapshot
to
profiting
from
this
fluctuation
in
odds.
Note
here
that
I
use
specialist
software
called
Fairbot
from
Binteko
I
do
this
because
it
is
the
key
to
trading
success.
You
are
at
a
huge
disadvantage
when
trading
on
Betfair,
if
you
only
use
www.betfair.com
itself.
Trading
software
does
all
of
the
calculations
for
you,
can
incorporate
stop
losses
if
needs
be,
and
will
auto
refresh
your
screen,
as
well
as
provide
you
with
a
constantly
updated
profit
and
loss
figure
regarding
a
specific
trade.
Now,
I
want
to
show
you
here
how
the
fluctuation
in
odds
can
return
a
trading
profit.
STEP
1
Back
Serena
Williams
at
1.96
odds
while
the
match
is
1
set
to
love
in
favour
of
Zheng.
The
arrow
bottom
right
reflects
the
fact
that
I
have
just
backed
Serena
Williams
at
odds
of
1.96
for
44.
This
screenshot
is
taken
of
a
Betfair
screen
as
represented
by
Fairbot.
The
Betfair
Screen
at
www.betfair.com
will
be
different
although
the
principles,
obviously,
remain
the
same.
The
screenshot
below
shows
the
profit
figure
in
green
(arrowed)
after
Serena
Williams
odds
have
reduced
to
1.38.
Why
have
they
reduced?
Well,
Serena
Williams
looks
likely
to
win
the
2nd
set,
and
consequently
more
likely
to
win
the
match
outright.
So
she
is
in
a
better
position
than
she
was
at
that
moment
in
time
when
her
odds
were
1.96.
(As
I
mentioned
earlier,
Serena
is
playing
better
and
this
is
translated
as
her
being
more
likely
to
win
the
match
than
when
she
was
playing
poorly
enough
to
have
lost
the
first
set
remember
a
winners,
or
likely
winners
odds
will
begin
a
journey
towards
1.01).
I
can
realise
an
18.82
profit
(arrowed)
because
of
the
shortening
in
Serenas
odds
(reflective
of
her
positive
performance
on
court
during
the
2nd
set).
STEP
2
-
I
now
realise
this
profit.
The
relationship
between
back
and
lay
odds,
particularly
in
an
in-play
betting
market,
can
be
seen
at
the
bottom
right
of
this
Fairbot
screenshot.
I
backed
Serena
at
1.96
odds
during
a
period
of
the
game
when
she
was
struggling.
I
now
lay
Serena
at
odds
of
1.39
during
a
period
of
the
game
when
she
is
dominating,
and
realise
a
17.16
profit
(known
as
a
green
screen
see
terminology
section)
on
both
players.
This
match
can
continue
and
quite
frankly
I
dont
care
who
wins
because
I
make
17.16
regardless,
as
seen
in
greater
detail
below.
The
above
example
distils
all
the
fundamental
elements
to
trading.
We
see
www.betfair.com
which
provides
tennis,
football
and
horse
racing
betting
in-play.
Because
the
markets
go
in-
play,
there
will
be
fluctuations
in
odds
(odds
will
rise
if
a
player
is
struggling
at
a
particular
point
in
the
match.
Odds
will
shorten
if
a
player
is
dominating
and
winning
points
at
a
particular
point
in
the
match).
There
is
a
distinct
relationship
between
the
back
and
lay
odds
which
enable
trading.
This
is
unique
to
the
betting
exchanges
which
allow
us
to
back
a
selection
to
win
and
back
a
selection
to
lose
(called
LAYING
in
this
context).
Software
makes
realising
profits
much
easier
and
is
a
must.
You
cannot
trade
as
efficiently
using
www.betfair.com,
despite
the
introduction
of
their
cash
out
facility
will
allows
you
to
create
a
green
screen
via
the
website
itself
with
one
click
of
a
mouse.
The
Major
Markets
to
Trade
Quite
simply,
you
can
trade
all
markets
at
www.betfair.com
which
Are
in-play
Are
liquid
IN-PLAY
Betfair
has
improved
immeasurably
since
the
early
days
(when
I
joined),
and
now
has
a
dedicated
site
specific
to
IN-PLAY
betting
markets.
Its
easy
to
access,
as
shown
below.
By
clicking
on
the
In-Play
icon
in
the
menu,
you
will
access
the
dedicated
In-Play
site
whose
In-Play
Planner
provides
you
with
a
chronological
look
at
all
of
the
in-
play
events,
categorised
by
sport,
for
that
day.
I
would
recommend
a
focus
on
tennis,
football,
which
coincidentally
appear
at
the
top
of
the
In-Play
Planner
above.
Whilst
I
would
recommend
these
2
sporting
areas
only
for
trading,
you
can
of
course
trade
other
events
such
as
Rugby
Union
6
Nations,
the
Golf,
horse
racing,
even
Big
Brother
and
X
Factor.
But
a
key
point
you
must
consider
is
the
Liquidity.
LIQUIDITY
Its
all
very
well
finding
a
market
in
which
you
have
sniffed
out
a
great
trade,
but
what
if
you
cannot
actually
execute
that
trade
because
there
is
no
money
in
the
market.
Let
me
quote
from
an
options
trading
book
and
youll
see
the
liquidity
issue
is
a
key
not
just
for
sports
traders
but
for
financial
traders
too.
The
two
best
options
markets
are
the
S&P
100
Index
Options...
and
the
FTSE
100
Index
Options...
because
both
the
OEX
and
SEI
have
high
volume
and
high
open
interest
which
means
high
liquidity.
High
liquidity
is
important
because
when
you
want
to
close
out
a
position
you
will
get
a
fair
price
if
the
market
is
liquid.
If
the
market
is
not
liquid,
you
will
have
a
hard
time
finding
a
buyer
for
your
position
and,
therefore,
you
might
not
be
able
to
get
a
good
price
for
closing
a
position.
(Jon
Schiller
The
100%
Return
Options
Trading
Strategy)
Identifying
Liquidity
on
Betfair
Quite
simply,
the
more
matched
money,
the
more
liquid
the
market.
Heres
a
superb
example
from
that
Serena
Williams
v
Zheng
match.
Look
at
the
Total
Matched
figure
arrowed
above.
6,220,
853.
6
million!
Now
thats
a
liquid
market.
Now
heres
an
illiquid
market:
Below
is
an
early
screenshot
of
a
friendly
pre
season
match
between
Arsenal
and
Manchester
City.
Look
at
the
Matched
Figure
to
determine
liquidity.
Currently
GBP
10,886
has
been
matched
for
this
game.
That
is
an
illiquid
market.
Further
clues?
Look
at
the
amounts
waiting
to
back
and
lay
teams.
26
is
waiting
to
back
Arsenal
currently,
32
is
waiting
to
back
Man
City
currently,
and
a
whopping
12
is
waiting
to
back
The
Draw.
Contrast
this
with
the
Serena
Williams
match.
5,376,
followed
by
4,480
are
waiting
to
back
Serena.
6,630,
4,647,
and
4,748
are
waiting
to
lay
Serena.
The
above
is
a
liquid
market,
and
a
market
in
which
you
can
execute
your
trades
at
the
best
available
price.
We
now
know
that
in
order
to
trade
successfully,
we
need
a
betting
market
on
Betfair
which
is
In-
Play
and
has
enough
liquidity
to
enable
us
to
trade.
The
next
step
is
specialisation,
or
finding
your
niche.
Finding
your
niche
If
you
narrow
the
point
of
your
focus
to
one
sport,
and
even
a
subsection
of
that
sport
(e.g.
football;
a
subsection
of
which
could
be
over
and
under
2.5
goals;
a
further
subsection
could
be
over
2.5
goals
only),
you
will
greatly
improve
your
chances
of
successfully
executing
trades.
I
specialise
on
the
following
markets
for
trading
profits:
Football
Betfairs
In-Play
menu
includes
a
greater
number
of
football
matches
from
throughout
the
world.
These
football
markets
are
extremely
liquid,
allowing
for
the
successful
execution
of
trades.
Further,
it
is
easier
for
us
to
research
popular
sports
such
as
Football.
Tennis
Tennis
has
that
one
component
that
In-Play
traders
love
and
that
is
volatility!
Odds
for
players
can
rise
and
fall
on
a
whim,
and
if
you
are
adept
at
riding
these
odds
fluctuations,
you
can
consistently
profit
time
and
again
from
a
single
match.
Like
Football,
Tennis
matches
have
a
wealth
of
research
resources.
My
niche
in
tennis
tends
to
be
the
Grand
Slam
events,
such
as
Wimbledon,
The
US
Open,
The
Australian
Open,
and
the
French
Open,
as
well
as
the
lesser,
but
famous
tournaments
such
as
Monaco.
A
further
subsection
for
me,
is
to
focus
on
the
best
players
in
the
World,
and
focus
on
matches
where
the
seeded
are
playing
the
unseeded
in
a
particular
tournament.
In
my
other
reports
in
this
small
series,
I
go
in-depth
into
betting
research,
specifically
with
Football.
I
will
also
include
a
prcis
on
how
to
research
tennis
matches.
Research
is
an
oft
neglected
and
key
element
to
successful
trading.
You
must
have
a
plan
before
you
want
to
trade
a
match.
The
following
hypothetical
plans
give
you
an
idea.
PLAN
1
I
notice
that
Roger
Federer
is
playing
Julien
Benneteau
in
the
Olympics.
The
last
time
these
2
players
met
was
at
Wimbledon,
when
Julien
Benneteau
took
the
first
2
sets
off
Roger
Federer.
As
the
Olympics
are
being
held
in
London,
and
at
Wimbledon,
I
would
expect
Benneteau
to
again
be
an
extremely
tough
opponent
for
Roger.
I
acknowledge
that
this
is
the
best
of
3
sets,
where
their
last
encounter
was
the
best
of
5
sets.
Still,
Roger
Federers
odds
of
1.09
are
far
too
short
to
back.
I
would
consider
laying
this
1.09
in
the
Match
odds
Market,
and
perhaps
laying
1.42
for
2-0
set
Betting
in
Federers
favour.
A
look
at
the
head
to
heads
on
Betfair
and
Roger
Federer
dropped
a
set
against
Alejandro
Falla.
I
suspect
Benneteau
is
a
better
player.
My
Plan
with
this
match
therefore
revolves
around
a
hope
that
Julien
Benneteau
will
be
as
difficult
to
beat
as
he
was
when
these
2
met
at
Wimbledon.
I
will
look
to:
Lay
Roger
Federer
in
the
Match
Odds
market
at
odds
of
1.09
because
I
think
these
odds
will
rise.
I
will
lay
Julien
Benneteau
if
he
wins
the
first
set
(or
Back
Roger
Federer
at
better
odds
than
pre
match).
I
will
consider
laying
the
winner
of
the
first
set,
regardless
of
which
player
it
is,
because
this
is
the
Olympics
and
the
loser
of
the
1st
set
must
win
the
2nd
set
in
order
to
stay
in
the
match.
PLAN
B
Plan
B
will
focus
on
a
football
match.
There
are
many
examples
of
research
leading
to
successful
trading
on
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk
-
I
will
choose
a
match
from
there.
Its
the
29th
July
2012
and
theres
an
Olympics
Match
between
Brazil
and
Belarus.
I
recount
my
actual
research
below
and
will
then
list
the
angles
in.
3pm Brazil v Belarus 1.16 home another Olympics mens match, and the Brazilian
ladies struggled awfully against New Zealand at 1.16 (and shorter) to win 1-0 with an 86th
minute goal.
A 3-2 win against Egypt saw Brazil 3-0 up and perhaps complacency drawing in towards the
end of the match. This is the under 23 side, well most of it, so this naivet needs to be
stamped out.
Belarus scored a single 45th minute goal to record a 1-0 win against New Zealand, and I
suspect will see little of the ball.
This should be Brazils to lose. The question is whether we can delay entry to bump up the
Brazil odds. See how adept the kiwi ladies were in shutting the door to Brazilian ladies with
Brazilians yesterday.
As you know by now, 1.16 indicates 3 goals minimum for the team priced as such.
I
will
look
to:
Delay
Entry
into
this
match
(delayed
entry
means
quite
simply
that
I
will
not
bet
and
watch
the
match
first
to
hope
for
some
shocks.
As
you
can
see
my
research
looked
at
whether
we
can
delay
entry
to
bump
up
the
Brazil
odds.
I
will
lay
Belarus
if
they
score
first
(or
Back
Brazil
at
higher
odds
if
Belarus
score
first).
Note
that
1.16
usually
indicates
3
goals
minimum
for
the
team
priced
as
such.
I
will
consider
an
over
3.5
goals
bet/trade
at
better
odds
if
the
match
is
tight
earlier
on.
Also,
if
Brazil
are
not
winning
going
into
the
last
20
minutes,
consider
backing
them
at
better
odds
(or
laying
the
draw)
in
the
hope
that
those
1.16
match
odds
are
realistically
reflective
of
Brazilian
dominance).
Belarus
scored
first.
It
was
1-1
until
the
65th
minute
(5
minutes
away
from
the
last
20
minutes
of
the
game),
and
Brazil
scored
3
goals
-
albeit
last
minute.
Having
a
Plan
of
Attack
will
help
you
anticipate
that
future
price
movement
which
is
my
definition
of
trading.
TENNIS
If
you
want
to
start
trading
tennis
matches,
here
are
a
few
techniques
that
are
logical
and
easy
to
master.
1)
Making
a
Horlicks
of
It
No
this
is
not
a
sojourn
to
that
delicious
malt
drink;
I
am
referring
to
the
worlds
best
players
when
they
are
making
a
complete
pigs
ear
out
of
a
certain
match
they
are
expected
to
win
comfortably.
The
key
words
here
are
underlined
in
bold
type.
The
player
is
expected
to
win
based
on
his
odds,
but
quite
often,
the
opponent
does
not
follow
the
plan.
This
little
strategy
is
successful
more
times
than
not.
Heres
what
we
do.
We
focus
on
major
tennis
tournaments
only.
These
I
class
as
the
Australian
Open,
French
Open,
US
Open
and
Wimbledon.
At
these
major
tournaments
we
focus
on
In-Play
matches
involving,
almost
exclusively,
the
Worlds
Top
Ten
players.
The
cream
tends
to
rise
to
the
top
in
these
Grand
Slam
events.
We
focus
on
the
early
rounds
of
these
Tournaments.
The
Top
Ten
players,
at
Grand
Slam
events,
are
expected
to
comfortably
win
their
early
round
matches.
It
is
when
they
are
struggling
in
these
early
matches
which
provide
our
cues
to
enter
the
market.
And
that
is
it.
The
logic?
Grand
Slam
events
are
targeted
by
the
Worlds
Best
Tennis
players.
They
are
usually
extremely
shortly
priced
in
the
early
rounds
of
these
Tournaments.
Oftentimes
they
struggle
but
do
eventually
win.
As
traders,
we
can
take
advantage
of
these
struggles.
I
spoke
previously
about
niches
and
subsections
of
sports,
and
this
is
one.
This
strategy
always
means
that
you
are
backing
very
strongly
fancied
favourites
are
value
odds
when
compared
to
the
price
before
the
match
commenced.
Here
are
some
examples
of
this
easy
to
use
tennis
trading
strategy
in
action.
Its
Wimbledons
Ladies
Round
2,
and
hot
favourite
Samantha
Stosur
has
surprisingly
lost
the
first
set
against
A
Rus.
This
was
not
meant
to
happen.
Samantha
Stosur
was
a
1.14
shot
before
the
match
began
(quite
simply
you
back
her
with
100,
and
if
she
wins,
you
win
14).
Very
short
odds.
This
is
the
Price/Volume
Chart
on
Betfair.
I
spoke
earlier
about
a
player/team
that
are
not
playing
well.
Do
you
remember
what
happens
to
their
odds?
They
will
increase.
In
this
case
1.14
shot
Samantha
Stosurs
odds
have
increased
dramatically
to
1.9
after
she
lost
the
first
set.
This
offers
extreme
value.
I
entered
the
betting
market
when
Samantha
Stosur
had
won
the
first
2
games
of
the
2nd
set.
I
placed
a
back
bet
at
odds
of
1.27
(arrowed
above
from
a
screenshot
taken
using
Fairbot).
With
Stosur
2
games
up
I
expect
her
to
win
the
2nd
set).
Look
at
Stosurs
odds
above.
I
have
backed
at
1.27.
I
now
have
the
opportunity
to
lay
at
1.12
and
execute
a
successful
trade.
The
software
tells
me
I
will
make
9.46
if
I
exit
my
trade
now.
And
that
is
9.46
regardless
of
which
player
wins
the
match.
(After
thought
Samantha
Stosur
actually
lost
this
match
but
I
still
profited
because
I
traded).
Samantha
Stosur
actually
won
the
2nd
set
6-0.
Look
at
the
price/volume
chart
Stosur
is
trailing
in
the
3rd
set
Stosur
loses
the
first
set
Stosur
fights
back
in
the
3rd
set.
Stosurs
odds
pre
match.
Stosur
wins
the
2nd
set
The
price
graph
above
shows
what
a
volatile
market
can
be
created
in
a
typical
tennis
match.
Remember
this
is
a
1.14
shot
we
are
talking
about.
It
was
meant
to
be
wham,
bam,
thank
you
Maam
2
sets
to
love
easy
win
for
one
of
the
Wimbledon
favourites.
As
Traders,
we
have
to
decide
when
to
enter
the
market
to
execute
a
trade.
This
is
why
I
mentioned
the
trading
plans
earlier
(Plan
A
and
Plan
B).
It
is
easier
to
enter
the
market
after
the
first
set
result
is
known.
In
this
case
you
have
backed
a
1.14
shot
in
Samantha
Stosur
at
odds
of
around
1.9.
It
is
important
in
tennis
to
know
the
duration
of
the
match.
Normally,
in
Womens
tennis,
it
is
the
best
of
3
sets.
This
can
serve
you
well
as
a
trader
of
extremely
hot
favourites
who
lose
the
first
set.
Why?
Well
they
simply
must
win
the
2nd
set
or
they
are
out
of
the
Tournament.
We
almost
always
see
a
huge
turnaround
in
form
come
the
2nd
set
in
Womens
Tennis.
Having
backed
Samantha
Stosur
(effectively
weve
backed
her
to
win
the
2nd
set,
or
at
least
look
as
if
she
is
going
to
win
the
2nd
set)
at
1.9,
we
can
lay
off
our
bet
at
odds
of
around
1.12
and
secure
a
superbly
profitable
trade.
PLAN
IN
ACTION:
Heres
another
example
from
this
years
Wimbledon
which
featured
Roger
Federer
(the
eventual
winner
of
Wimbledon
2012!)
This
match
meets
all
of
the
credentials
for
my
niche
tennis
trade:
It
is
a
Grand
Slam
event,
Wimbledon.
The
match
involves
a
World
Number
3
Player
(I
am
focussing
on
the
Worlds
Best).
This
is
the
Mens
Singles
Round
3.
An
early
round
in
a
Grand
Slam
event,
featuring
a
World
Top
3
player.
Roger
Federer
was
priced
at
1.03
pre
match.
This
means
that
if
you
place
a
back
bet
of
100
on
Roger
Federer
to
win
this
match,
you
will
win
3!
This
is
an
absolutely
valueless
bet
isnt
it?
This
is
a
best
of
5
sets
match
and
the
market
is
expecting
Julien
Benneteau
to
turn
up
to
have
his
tummy
tickled
before
Roger
Federer
strolls
to
a
3
sets
to
love
victory
whilst
reading
the
Evening
Standard
and
sipping
on
a
Pimms.
Roger
Federer
loses
the
first
set.
His
odds
do
what
when
he
is
playing
badly?
They
will
rise.
This
1.03
shot
is
now
available
to
back
at
1.17.
This
could
be
the
first
entry
into
the
market.
I
test
the
water
here.
I
have
backed
Roger
at
odds
of
1.14
after
losing
the
first
set.
As
the
market
expects,
Roger
begins
to
assert
fleetingly
in
the
2nd
set.
I
can
immediately
realise
a
profit.
Having
backed
at
1.14,
I
can
lay
at
1.08
and
profit
from
the
reduction
in
odds.
Why
the
drop
in
odds?
Remember,
when
a
player
you
have
backed
is
playing
well,
their
odds
will
decrease.
And
Roger
Federer
has
won
the
first
2
games
of
the
2nd
set
,
the
market
assuming
he
will
go
on
to
win
this
2nd
set
(and
as
you
will
see,
the
market
often
gets
it
wrong,
and
we
can
profit
well
from
this).
Now
things
are
getting
interesting.
Look
at
the
scoreboard.
Remember
that
Roger
Federer
was
priced,
pre
match,
at
1.03
(you
win
3
if
you
back
him
for
100).
Benneteau
has
won
2
consecutive
sets.
Like
the
Samantha
Stosur
match,
the
next
set
is
critical
for
Federer.
If
he
loses
the
3rd
set,
Federer
is
out
of
Wimbledon
a
tournament
this
year
where
Rafael
Nadal
has
exited
early!
What
happens
to
a
players
odds
when
they
are
playing
badly/losing?
Their
odds
increase.
1.78
odds
for
a
1.03
shot,
and
whats
more,
a
World
Number
3
and
multiple
Wimbledon
champion
is
far
too
good
to
miss.
I
back
Roger
Federer
at
1.78
for
100.
The
3rd
set
must
be
won
by
Roger.
I
am
effectively
backing
him
to
win
this
3rd
set.
The
3rd
set
begins.
Roger
Federer
starts
well
and
has
an
early
break
point
on
Benneteaus
serve.
What
happens
to
a
players
odds
when
they
play
well?
They
decrease!
Having
backed
Roger
Federer
at
odds
of
1.78,
I
can
trade
out
here
at
odds
of
1.6
for
an
11
guaranteed
profit.
My
contention
though
is
that
Roger
Federer
will
win
the
3rd
set.
Roger
Federer
breaks
Benneteaus
serve
in
the
3rd
set.
Again,
what
happens
to
a
players
odds
when
they
are
playing
well?
They
decrease.
Having
backed
Roger
Federer
at
odds
of
1.78
at
the
beginning
of
the
3rd
set,
I
can
now
trade
out
at
odds
of
1.48
for
a
profit
of
20
at
this
time.
Roger
Federer
continues
to
play
well,
and
consequently
(yes
you
guessed
it),
his
odds
begin
to
fall
in
response.
It
is
now
0-30
to
Federer
on
the
Benneteau
serve.
It
looks
as
if
Roger
will
break
Benneteau
again.
He
is
3-0
up
in
the
3rd
set.
I
can
now
realise
a
nearly
50
profit
from
trading
Roger
Federer
2
sets
to
love
down.
Having
backed
at
1.78,
I
decide
to
take
my
profit
after
the
3rd
set.
I
have
greened
up
(see
the
Terminology
section),
to
realise
a
profit
here
of
44.80
if
Roger
Federer
wins,
and
44.80
if
Julien
Benneteau
wins.
Here
I
am,
in
front
of
the
TV,
cheering
on
both
players.
Its
truly
the
best
of
both
worlds.
The
example
above
is
the
epitomy
of
what
I
am
trying
to
get
across
to
you,
as
regards
tennis
trading.
To
recap,
here
are
the
key
components
to
this
tennis
strategy.
A
focus
on
Grand
Slam
events
and
well
renowned
tennis
tournaments.
Grand
Slam
events
include
the
Australian
Open,
French
Open,
US
Open
and
Wimbledon.
A
focus
on
the
Worlds
Best.
In
this
case
there
are
only
2
others
who
are
better
than
a
certain
World
Number
3
Roger
Federer.
An
early
round
of
a
Grand
Slam
Tournament.
In
this
example,
its
Round
3
of
Wimbledon
featuring
the
World
Number
3.
The
Worlds
Best
must
be
extremely
shortly
priced
and
make
a
complete
Horlicks
of
it
all.
The
bigger
the
mess,
the
better
the
bet.
Tennis
trading
can
involve
a
lot
more
strategy,
such
as
trading
points,
games,
and
sets,
but
the
strategy
I
share
with
you
here
is
a
simple,
no
nonsense
approach.
Football
Im
working
on
a
report
entitled
Profiting
from
Live
Football,
and
therein
I
reveal
my
strategies
for
successfully
profiting
not
only
from
betting
on
live
football
matches,
but
also
from
trading
live
football
matches.
I
dont
want
to
duplicate
myself
here,
so
I
will
offer
you,
as
a
tasty
morsel,
a
simple
you
can
have
fun
with
during
the
new
season.
It
follows
along
the
lines
of
the
tennis
strategy
and
is
so
simple,
you
can
easily
implement
it
during
the
new
season.
If
you
want
an
easy
strategy
to
use
for
Football
which
shows
you:
The
relationship
between
back
and
lay
odds.
How
back
and
lay
odds
react
in
a
football
match
How
to
profit
from
strong
market
leaders
Then
the
following
strategy
is
perfect
for
you.
Making
a
Horlicks
of
it
-
The
Football
Version
You
saw
in
the
tennis
example
I
gave
that
a
certain
Roger
Federer
was
making
a
complete
Horlicks
of
his
3rd
round
match
against
Julien
Benneteau.
You
shouldnt
be
surprised,
then,
to
learn
that
certain
high
profile
teams
domestically
and
throughout
Europe,
tend
to
make
a
Horlicks
of
certain
winnable
matches.
You
can
profit
from
this,
as
a
football
trader.
Research
is
the
Key.
With
football
trading,
we
take
our
cues
from
the
betting
market
odds.
And
then
we
try
and
justify
the
odds
by
doing
our
research.
Research
is
something
I
have
covered
independently
so
make
sure
you
study
my
research
report.
Quite
simply,
if
you
dont
do
any
research
on
a
football
match,
and
still
want
to
trade
it
based
solely
on
the
odds,
then
Im
afraid
youll
meet
with
far
more
losing
trades.
Football
research
is
available
on
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk
.
Please
study
how
I
research
and
see
how
I
try
to
uncover
patterns
and
sequences.
Having
got
the
research
out
of
the
way,
we
now
wait,
as
we
do
in
the
tennis,
for
a
team
to
make
a
complete
Horlicks
out
of
an
easily
winnable
match.
And
believe
me,
your
Man
Utds,
Chelseas,
Barcelonas,
Celtics
will
all
make
a
pigs
ear
of
some
matches
throughout
a
general
38
match
season,
and
you
can
take
advantage.
Standard
Liege
are
in
front
after
only
4
minutes,
and
the
scoreline
is
2-0!
This
was
not
part
of
the
script.
A
case
of
Arsenal
and
Horlicks
Im
sure
youll
agree!
It
is
at
this
stage
that
you
consider
Arsenal
should
do
something
about
this
scoreline.
Remember
what
happens
to
a
teams
odds
when
they
are
playing
badly?
They
increase!
Arsenal
are
backable
at
odds
of
4/1
or
5
decimal.
The
odds
are
too
high
considering
Arsenals
profile
and
the
fact
there
are
86
minutes
remaining
in
this
match.
I
back
Arsenal
for
200
at
odds
of
5.
I
expect
a
serious
comeback,
and
soon.
Arsenal
equalise
before
halftime.
What
happens
to
a
teams
odds
when
they
are
playing
well?
The
odds
decrease.
In
this
case,
I
backed
Arsenal
at
odds
of
5.
They
are
playing
well
and
scored
a
goal.
This
goal
itself
has
shortened
Arsenals
odds
to
3.85.
Having
backed
at
5
and
layed
off
at
3.85,
I
have
made
a
guaranteed
57.23.
If
Arsenal
win,
I
win
57.
If
Arsenal
lose,
I
win
57.
If
Arsenal
draw,
I
win
57.
As
in
my
checklist,
I
look
for
teams
expected
to
win.
In
another
example
from
the
Champions
League,
Barcelona
go
a
goal
down
to
Dynamo
Kiev.
I
back
Barcelona
at
odds
of
2.4
when
1-0
down.
They
equalise
and
their
odds
drop
to
1.78.
I
make
a
guaranteed
65
minimum.
And
heres
a
more
familiar
name.
Chelsea,
coincidentally
in
the
same
Champions
League,
go
a
goal
down
to
APOEL.
What
happens
when
a
team
is
playing
poorly
?
Their
odds
increase.
APOEL
are
0-1
up
away
from
home
to
Chelsea
I
back
Chelsea
at
1.66
0-1
down
after
only
6
minutes,
and
lay
Chelsea
at
1.31
once
they
have
equalised
thanks
to
Drogba.
Another
guaranteed
51.
This
simple
trading
technique
will
serve
you
well
if
you
follow
it
in
the
major
European
Leagues,
and
major
tournaments
such
as
the
Champions
League.
Read
Profiting
from
Live
Football
for
a
really
in
depth
look
at
football
trading.
What
about
horse
racing?
As
this
is
Betfair
Trading
Made
Easy
I
dont
feel
there
is
space
for
horse
racing.
Why?
Well
horse
racing
tends
to
involve
swing
trading
and
momentum
trading.
i.e.
we
try
to
trade
price
movements.
We
cannot
really
trade
using
a
simple
reactive
strategy
that
we
can
with
tennis.
There
is
no
recovery
from
a
set
down
or
2
goals
down
in
horse
racing.
There
are
strategies
which
can
be
employed
in
trading
the
pre
race
market
and
in-
play
markets
in
horse
racing,
but
again
these
are
complicated
strategies.
Trading
Terminology
You
have
read
about
greening
up,
laying
off,
trading
out
but
what
am
I
talking
about?
Betfair
has
provided
an
excellent
glossary.
I
will
single
out
back
to
lay,
lay
to
back,
and
greening
up
specifically.
Do
please
read
Betfairs
Glossary
at
http://betting.betfair.com/education/the-ultimate-in-play-
glossary-030211.html
BACK
TO
LAY
TRADING
and
GREENING
UP
I
have
repeated
2
questions
throughout
this
report.
What
happens
when
a
team
plays
well?
The
answer
is
that
their
odds
reduce.
What
happens
when
a
team
plays
poorly?
The
answer
is
that
their
odds
increase.
What
happens
to
the
odds
is
intrinsic
in
manufacturing
a
successful
trade.
Lets
focus
here
on
the
Back
to
Lay
Trade.
When
we
back
a
team,
or
player,
we
want
that
team/player
to
do
well.
We
want
them
to
score
goals,
we
want
that
tennis
player
to
win
points,
games
and
eventually
sets.
This
is
the
essence
of
the
back
to
lay
trade.
Whenever
you
back
an
outcome,
with
trading
in
mind,
it
is
in
the
expectation
that
their
odds
will
eventually
reduce.
Here
is
a
hypothetical
back
to
lay
trade.
Lets
back
Lepchenko
here
using
www.betfair.com
(remember
though
that
software
is
preferred).
Backing
Lepchenko
at
1.49
for
100
will
result
in
a
profit
of
46.60
if
she
wins,
and
100
loss
if
she
loses.
Lets
assume
that
Lepchenko
is
playing
well.
Her
odds
will
reduce.
Why?
Odds
will
shorten
if
the
market
thinks
a
player
is
more
likely
to
win.
The
shortest
price
is
1.01.
Lepchenkos
odds,
in
this
example,
have
shortened
to
1.25
because
she
has
been
winning
games
and
looks
the
likeliest
winner.
She
was
backed
at
1.49.
She
can
now
be
layed
at
1.25.
This
is
what
is
called
a
back
to
lay
trade.
We
back
first
(in
order)
to
lay
(later).
By
laying
at
the
lower
price
for
the
same
stake
at
which
you
backed
at
the
higher
price
(
1.49)
you
can:
Make
sure
your
100
stake
is
returned
to
your
betting
bank
Guarantee
a
risk
free
bet
on
the
player
who
you
back
to
lay
traded.
Here
we
have
hypothetically
backed
Lepchenko
at
1.49
and
now
layed
her
at
1.25
using
the
same
100
stake.
We
are
guaranteed
22.82
if
she
wins,
but
nothing
if
Royg
wins.
You
saw
in
previous
examples
in
this
report
how
the
profit
was
spread
throughout
both
outcomes
(
or
in
football
the
home
win,
away
win,
and
draw).
I
would
urge
you
to
be
disciplined
enough
to
do
this
with
all
of
your
trades
because,
as
with
Samantha
Stosur,
sometimes
these
favourites
will
lose.
HOW
TO
GREEN
UP
USING
BETFAIR:
Im
afraid
its
a
bit
hit
and
miss
if
you
do
not
use
software
to
green
up.
Quite
simply,
instead
of
laying
off
using
the
same
stake
that
you
backed
the
player
(
100),
you
know
add
on
the
stake
you
would
like
on
the
2nd
player.
Instead
of
laying
Lepchenko
for
a
stake
of
100,
by
increasing
the
stake
to
120,
I
am
guaranteeing
a
profit
whoever
wins.
How
did
I
know
how
much
to
lay?
I
experimented
until
the
winnings
for
both
players
were
about
the
same.
By
laying
Lepchenko
for
a
stake
of
115,
she
will
win
19.26
and
Royg
will
win
14.26.
I
want
greater
parity.
By
laying
Lepchenko
for
120
at
1.25
odds,
I
guarantee
18
for
her,
and
19
if
Royg
wins.
Specialist
software
will
make
this
job
easier
for
you.
In
this
trade
recently
at
Wimbledon,
my
trading
software
has
told
me
that,
at
the
current
odds,
I
can
guarantee
27.78
(arrowed
above).
When
the
numbers
are
green,
the
software
indicates
a
profit,
when
these
figures
are
red,
it
indicates
the
potential
loss.
By
simply
clicking
on
the
box
above,
the
software
will
spread
my
profit
(green
up)
onto
both
players.
This
software
I
use
is
available
at
Binteko
and
is
called
Fairbot.
There
is
also
free
software
available
which
will
help
you
green
up,
in
particular
Betangel
Basic
at
www.betangel.com.
Fairbot
though
is
geared
for
the
Betfair
Trader.
LAY
TO
BACK
TRADING:
Here
we
lay
an
outcome
first,
hoping
that
the
player
or
team
will
underperform.
A
football
team,
for
instance,
will
surrender
the
lead,
concede
a
goal,
get
a
player
sent
off
-
anything
which
will
increase
their
odds.
A
tennis
player
will
lose
the
next
set.
We
have
2
options
with
lay
to
back
trading.
Fixed
Liability
Laying
and
Fixed
Stake
Laying.
FIXED
STAKE
LAYING:
When
we
fixed
stake
lay
to
back
trade,
we
firstly
place
a
lay
bet
for
a
specified
stake.
That
stake
is
the
amount
we
would
like
to
win.
In
this
case,
I
have
layed
Lepchenko
to
win
100.
Underneath
Lepchenkos
name,
youll
see
a
minus
figure
in
red
this
shows
the
liability.
Remember
that
we
are
laying
Lepchenko,
therefore
we
want
her
to
lose.
If
she
wins,
we
will
have
to
pay
out
a
50
liability,
which
is
the
liability
generated
by
laying
a
1.5
shot
to
win
100.
By
looking
to
win
a
specific
amount
when
laying,
we
have
no
control
over
the
liability.
It
must
be
said
though,
that
if
you
lay
odds
on
shots
on
Betfair
(i.e.
any
outcome
priced
lower
than
2.00
in
the
odds,
)your
liability
will
always
be
smaller
than
your
potential
winnings.
When
we
have
layed
an
outcome,
we
want
that
outcome
to
perform
badly,
not
necessarily
for
the
whole
match,
but
for
long
enough
to
ensure
the
odds
rise.
Odds
will
rise
when
teams
perform
poorly.
Lets
assume
that
Lepchenko
has
started
to
lose
points,
and
games
here.
Her
odds
have
drifted
to
1.8.
Your
first
job
as
traders
is
always
to
negate
any
stakes
you
have.
In
this
case
we
have
a
50
liability
for
Lepchenko.
By
backing
Lepchenko
at
odds
of
1.8
for
the
same
stake
at
which
I
layed
her
(100),
I
have
negated
the
liability
of
50,
and
produced
a
guaranteed
profit
of
28.53
if
she
wins,
and
a
break
even
if
Royg
wins.
Greening
Up.
Lay
to
Back
trading
greening
up
is
slightly
different
to
backing
if
you
are
doing
it
manually
via
Betfairs
website.
In
the
above
screenshot,
I
want
to
spread
profit
onto
both
players.
With
back
to
lay
trading
we
add
an
amount
to
our
100.
When
lay
to
back
trading,
we
subtract
the
amount
we
want
to
spread
to
the
other
player.
Above,
I
have
layed
Lepchenko
at
1.8
for
83
to
guarantee
15.60
if
she
wins
,
and
16.17
if
Royg
wins.
FIXED
LIABILITY
LAYING:
Laying
is
unique
in
that
it
has
the
liability
issue
as
shown
above.
We
can
actually
control
our
liability
at
www.betfair.com
by
using
the
option
arrowed
below:
Here,
I
will
lose
a
specified
100
if
Lepchenko
wins
this
match.
Remember
I
have
layed
her,
and
so
want
her
to
lose.
By
specifying
the
liability
(the
amount
we
could
possibly
lose),
we
can
control
our
laying.
The
upside
in
this
case
is
that
we
have
increased
the
possible
returns
if
Royg
wins
to
190.
GREENING
UP:
The
same
principle
applies
as
it
did
to
fixed
stake
laying.
We
use
the
backers
stake
amount
(in
this
case
200)
to
back
Lepchenko
at
higher
odds
(1.8)
to
ensure
our
liability
is
negated.
This
has
produced
a
57
guaranteed
profit
if
Lepchenko
wins,
and
a
break
even
if
she
doesnt
win.
Of
course
the
ideal
is
to
spread
the
profit
onto
both
outcomes
(green
up)
and
we
do
this
by
subtracting
the
amount
we
want
the
other
player
to
win
from
our
stake
(200).
By
backing
Lepchenko
at
1.8
(
higher
odds)
for
168,
I
guarantee
30
if
Royg
wins,
and
32
if
Lepchenko
wins.
The
Real
Key
To
Trading
Success
As
has
been
hinted
at
throughout
this
report,
the
real
key
to
trading
success
is
in
the
quick
execution
of
trades.
This
is
only
possible
through
the
use
of
software.
Sometimes
time
is
of
the
essence
when
trading,
and
fiddling
about
on
Betfairs
website,
trying
to
calculate
the
correct
amount
to
lay
the
team/player
to
produce
a
profit
can
waste
valuable
seconds,
especially
in
betting
markets
which
move
quickly.
Remember
how
volatile
the
tennis
markets
were?
Software
therefore
is
a
must.
Heres
a
prcis
of
whats
on
the
market.
www.binteko.com
Fairbot
from
Binteko
is
the
software
I
use.
It
is
specific
to
trading,
and
calculates
potential
profits/losses
as
a
match
progresses.
You
know
instantly
when
you
are
in
profit
and
one
click
enables
greening
up.
For
the
more
advanced
trader,
theres
trailing
stop
losses,
swap
trading
and
much
more.
It
offers
extremely
good
value
for
money
at
time
of
writing.
www.betangel.com
A
little
more
pricey
and
too
many
bells
and
whistles
for
me
personally.
Value
for
money
must
be
Fairbot.
www.betangel.com
do
provide
Betangel
Basic
which
is
a
free
piece
of
software
which
should
be
your
first
port
of
call.
www.geekstoy.com
This
software
used
to
be
free,
but
is
now
paid
for.
Again
it
is
professional
trading
software
and
has
all
you
need
to
green
up
automatically.
Check
with
the
website
for
fees.
http://racingtraders.co.uk/download/
Racing
Traders
offer
their
software
for
free
with
limited
functionality.
Again
this
option
is
perfect
for
dip
your
toe
in
traders
who
do
not
want
to
commit
upfront
costs
whilst
investigating
trading.
Bottom
Line
I
hope
this
free
report
introduces
you
to
the
concept
of
sports
trading
as
it
applies
to
the
betting
exchanges,
and
in
particular
Betfair.
Trading
is
simply
the
anticipation
of
a
future
price
movement
and
in
essence:
If
a
team/player
performs
well,
their
odds
will
reduce.
We
profit
by
being
back
to
lay
traders.
If
a
team/player
performs
badly,
their
odds
will
increase.
We
become
lay
to
back
traders.
The
easy
to
use
strategies
I
have
shown
you
for
football
and
tennis
serve
as
an
ideal
launching
pad
for
you
to
investigate
trading.
These
strategies
have
at
their
heart
the
taking
advantage
of
inevitable
fluctuations
in
odds
in
in-play
football/tennis
matches.
These
strategies
are
also
reactive
strategies.
They
react
to
the
top
tennis
players
and
top
footballers
in
matches
in
which
they
are
underperforming
-
I
referred
to
it
as
making
a
Horlicks
of
it.
There
are
many
hundreds
of
opportunities
to
make
this
simple
strategy
work
and
to
practice
by
paper
trading.
Enjoy!
Clive
Keeling
What
Really
Wins
Money
www.whatreallymoney.co.uk