Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Pdfurhfrqrplfv
Zloohp K1 Exlwhu4
Idfxow| ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Srolwlfv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdpeulgjh
dqg Prqhwdu| Srolf| Frpplwwhh/ Edqn ri Hqjodqg5
5< Qryhpehu 4<<<
Wkhvh ohfwxuh qrwhv duh surylvlrqdo dqg xqghu frqvwdqw
uhylvlrq1 L zhofrph qrwlfdwlrqv ri w|sh L dqg w|sh LL huuruv1
4 Zloohp
f
Frqwhqwv
4 Lqwurgxfwlrq
46
1 46
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
53
56
56
57
5<
5<
64
67
78
83
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
8<
8<
95
97
99
9;
:5
:5
;3
;6
;6
;6
FRQWHQWV
71:16
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
458
1 1 1 1 1 458
*Oxfdv
1 1 1 1 1 45:
1 1 1 1 1 45<
1 1 1 1 1 467
1 1 1 1 1 468
1 1 1 1 1 46:
1 1 1 1 1 474
1 1 1 1 1 476
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
47<
1 47<
1 493
1 496
1 49;
1 49;
1 4:5
1 4:;
1 4;3
FRQWHQWV
4;8
1 4;8
1 4;8
1 4;9
1 4<5
1 4<6
1 4<;
1 4<<
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
frvwv ri
1 1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1
h{0
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
566
566
566
567
567
574
1 576
46 Prqh|
588
58:
FRQWHQWV
Fkdswhu 4
Lqwurgxfwlrq
Wkhvh ohfwxuh qrwhv duh edvhg rq ohfwxuhv jlyhq dw wkh Orqgrq Vfkrro ri
Hfrqrplfv/ \doh Xqlyhuvlw| dqg wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdpeulgjh vlqfh wkh hduo|
4<;3*v1 Wkh| duh dlphg dw dgydqfhg xqghujudgxdwhv dqg Pdvwhuv ohyho vwx0
ghqwv lq hfrqrplfv1 Wkh pdlq jxlglqj sulqflsoh iru lqfoxglqj dqg h{foxglqj
wrslfv kdv ehhq wkhlu uhohydqfh iru wkh hydoxdwlrq dqg ghvljq ri pdfurhfr0
qrplf srolf|1 Ehiruh Mxqh 4<<:/ wkh srolf| uhohydqfh ri wkh pdwhuldo zdv
lqiruphg pdlqo| e| p| dgylvru| zrun iru wkh Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Prqhwdu| Ixqg/
wkh Zruog Edqn/ wkh Lqwhu0Dphulfdq Ghyhorsphqw Edqn/ wkh Hxurshdq Edqn
iru Uhfrqvwuxfwlrq dqg Ghyhorsphqw/ wkh Hxurshdq Frppxqlw| +dqg odwhu
wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq,/ dqg wkh qdwlrqdo jryhuqphqwv/ sduoldphqwv dqg fhqwudo
edqnv lq d qxpehu ri lqgxvwuldo frxqwulhv +lqfoxglqj wkh XN dqg wkh Qhwkhu0
odqgv,/ ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv dqg wudqvlwlrq hfrqrplhv1 Vlqfh Mxqh 4<<:/ p|
zrun dv dq lqghshqghqw phpehu ri wkh Prqhwdu| Srolf| Frpplwwhh ri wkh
Edqn ri Hqjodqg kdv vkdshg dqg dowhuhg p| ylhzv rq zkdw frqvwlwxwhv xvhixo
pdfurhfrqrplfv1
Wkh sulqflsoh ri srolf| uhohydqfh kdv ehhq ryhuulgghq dw wlphv zkhq d sdu0
wlfxodu elw ri wkhru| wkdw/ lq p| ylhz/ kdg qr sudfwlfdo srolf| uhohydqfh/ zdv
vr suhydohqw lq wkh surihvvlrqdo olwhudwxuh dqg lq fxuuhqw dfdghplf glvfrxuvh/
wkdw vwxghqwv qhhghg wr eh dzduh ri wkhp lq rughu wr sduwlflsdwh hhfwlyho|
lq wkh srolf| ghedwh1 Dprqj wkhvh luuhohydqw exw rpqlsuhvhqw lwhpv duh wkh
dqdo|vlv ri hfrqrplhv zlwkrxw qrplqdo zdjh dqg sulfh uljlglwlhv/ wkh dqdo|vlv
ri forvhg hfrqrplf v|vwhpv +vwloo yhu| frpprq/ hvshfldoo| lq wkh XVD,/ wkh
uhsuhvhqwdwlyh djhqw prgho ri frqvxphu ghpdqg dqg sruwirolr vhohfwlrq/ dqg
uhdo exvlqhvv f|foh wkhru|1
Hyhu| ohfwxuhu ehjv/ vwhdov dqg eruurzv lghdv/ prghov dqg wkhrulhv iurp
ihoorz hfrqrplvwv sdvw dqg suhvhqw1 L kdyh wulhg wr dfnqrzohgjh wkh pdlq
vrxufhv ri prvw ri wkh wkhrulhv dqg prghov h{srxqghg lq wkhvh qrwhv/ exw
lw lv hhfwlyho| lpsrvvleoh wr jlyh ixoo dqg frpsuhkhqvlyh fuhglw hyhu|zkhuh
:
FKDSWHU 41 LQWURGXFWLRQ
lw pljkw eh gxh1 L pdnh qr fodlpv ri ruljlqdolw| iru wkh lghdv dqg dqdo|vhv
frqwdlqhg lq wkhvh qrwhv1 Zkhuh qhz pdwhuldo lv suhvhqwhg +dv lq wkh dqdo|vlv
ri wkh vdfulfh udwlr lq Fkdswhu 5/ dqg lq wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh uroh ri iruzdug0
orrnlqj qdqfldo pdunhwv lq vlpsoh pdfurprghov lq Fkdswhu 6,/ lw frqvwlwxwhv
d vwudljkwiruzdug h{whqvlrq ri wkh h{lvwlqj olwhudwxuh1
P| wlph dv dq PSF phpehu kdv kdg d vljqlfdqw lpsdfw rq p| ylhzv rq
zkdw frqvwlwxwhv uhohydqw pdfurhfrqrplfv1 Rqh duhd lq zklfk wklv lv uh hfwhg
lv lq wkh wuhdwphqw ri prqhwdu| srolf|1 Zkloh prvw prqhwdu| dqdo|vlv lv edvhg
rq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw vrph prqhwdu| djjuhjdwh lv wkh lqvwuxphqw frqwuroohg
e| wkh fhqwudo edqn/ wkh uhdolw| lv wkdw fhqwudo edqnv vhw d vkruw qrplqdo
lqwhuhvw udwh/ zlwk wkh prqh| vwrfn ghwhuplqhg hqgrjhqrxvo|1 Wkurxjkrxw
wkhvh qrwhv/ L wkhuhiruh irfxv rq qrplqdo lqwhuhvw uxohv iru prqhwdu| srolf|
dowkrxjk/ djdlq lq rughu wr suhvhuyh wkh olqnv zlwk wkh h{lvwlqj olwhudwxuh/
prqh| vwrfn uxohv ru prqhwdu| jurzwk uxohv duh dovr frqvlghuhg1
Wkh idfw wkdw qdwlrqdo hfrqrplhv duh rshq wr wudgh lq jrrgv/ vhuylfhv
dqg qdqfldo fodlpv phdqv +dqg pd| dovr eh rshq wr lqwhuqdwlrqdo pljudwlrq
ri zrunhuv/ frqvxphuv dqg upv, phdqv wkdw iru qdwlrqdo srolf| pdnhuv dq
rshq hfrqrp| shuvshfwlyh lv hvvhqwldo1 Wkh dwwhqwlrq sdlg wr rshq hfrqrp|
lvvxhv lq wkhvh ohfwxuhv wkhuhiruh juhdwo| h{fhhgv wkdw fkdudfwhulvwlf ri prvw
pdfurhfrqrplfv wuhdwlvhv/ hvshfldoo| wkrvh zulwwhq lq wkh XVD1
Hyhq gxulqj wkh kh|gd| ri wkh Qhz Fodvvlfdo Pdfurhfrqrplfv +wkh odwh
vhyhqwlhv dqg hduo| hljkwlhv,/ fhqwudo edqnv zhuh d edvwlrq ri Nh|qhvldqlvp/
lq wkh vhqvh wkdw hyhu| fhqwudo edqnhu eholhyhg wkdw qrplqdo uljlglwlhv zhuh
d idfw ri olih +h{fhsw xqghu frqglwlrqv ri k|shu0lq dwlrq, dqg wkdw prqhwdu|
srolf| frxog wkhuhiruh kdyh vljqlfdqw/ li whpsrudu|/ hhfwv rq uhdo hfrqrplf
dfwlylw|1 D nh| fkdoohqjh iru wkhrulvwv/ prghohuv dqg srolf| dqdo|vwv kdv ehhq
wr qg d fkdudfwhulvdwlrq ri wkhvh qrplqdo uljlglwlhv wkdw lv lqyduldqw xqghu
wkh nlqg ri fkdqjhv lq srolf| uxohv/ lq wkh h{whuqdo hqylurqphqw dqg lq rwkhu
h{rjhqrxv surfhvvhv wkdw duh olnho| wr rffxu1 Wklv vhdufk iru d uhsuhvhqwdwlrq
ri qrplqdo uljlglwlhv/ wkdw lv/ shuvlvwhqfh lq zdjh dqg sulfh lq dwlrq/ wkdw lv
qrw dpexvkhg idwdoo| e| wkh Oxfdv fulwltxh lv frpsolfdwhg e| wkh idfw wkdw
wkhuh duh qr vdwlvidfwru| *ghhs vwuxfwxudo* wkhrulhv ri qrplqdo uljlglwlhv1 Qhz
Nh|qhvldq *phqx frvw* wkhrulhv vlpso| dvvxph wkh dqvzhu= wkhuh duh uhdo
frvwv ri fkdqjlqj qrplqdo sulfhv1 Rqh zrxog uhdoo| olnh wr vhh vrph glvfuhwh
jds ehwzhhq wkh dvvxpswlrq dqg wkh frqfoxvlrq1
Wkh ixqgdphqwdo uhdvrq zk| wkhuh lv qr vdwlvidfwru| wkhru| ri qrplqdo
uljlglwlhv lv wkdw wkhuh lv qr vdwlvidfwru| wkhru| ri prqh|1 Lw kdv orqj ehhq
uhfrjqlvhg wkdw wkhuh lv qr frqylqflqj wkhru| ri wkh hphujhqfh dqg xvh ri d
jhqhudo phdqv ri sd|phqw dqg phglxp ri h{fkdqjh1 Khqfh wkh uhfrxuvh wr
vxfk wkhruhwlfdo derplqdwlrqv dv +dw, prqh| lq wkh gluhfw xwlolw| ixqfwlrq/
prqh| dv d frqvwudlqw rq h{fkdqjh +wkh fdvk0lq0dgydqfh prghov,/ prqh| lq
<
wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq dqg prqh| lq d *vkrsslqj ixqfwlrq*/ hfrqrplvlqj
rq wlph dqg rwkhu uhdo uhvrxufhv1 Doodlv0Edxpro0Wrelq prghov ri prqh|
ghpdqg dqg rwkhu lqyhqwru|0wkhruhwlf prghov ri prqh| ghpdqg +vxfk dv wkh
r7 prgho ri Ploohu dqg Ruu, sxusruw wr h{sodlq wkh kroglqj ri d udwh ri uhwxuq
grplqdwhg wudqvdfwlrqv phglxp e| srvwxodwlqj +sodxvleoh, wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv
dvvrfldwhg zlwk vzlwfklqj ehwzhhq wkh wudqvdfwlrqv phglxp dqg wkh vxshulru
vwruhv ri ydoxh1 Ixqgdphqwdoo|/ krzhyhu/ wkh| duh yhu| vwulfw fdvk0lq0dgydqfh
prghov/ vlqfh wkh| dvvxph wkdw prqh| lv uhtxluhg iru frqvxphu sxufkdvhv
+Doodlv0Edxpro0Wrelq, ru exvlqhvv sxufkdvhv dqg vdohv +Ploohu0Ruu,1
Hyhq pruh gdpdjlqj wkdq wkh devhqfh ri d yldeoh wkhru| ri wkh phdqv ri
sd|phqw dqg phglxp ri h{fkdqjh lv wkh devhqfh ri d wkhru| ri wkh qxpudluh1
Zkloh lw vhhpv hqwluho| sodxvleoh dqg vhqvleoh wkdw wkh qxpudluh1 vkrxog
eh wkh vdph dv wkh phglxp ri h{fkdqjh +ghvslwh wkh rgg h{fhswlrqv olnh
wkh Jxlqhd,/ frqyhqwlrqdo hfrqrplfv fdqqrw h{sodlq zk| prqh| udwkhu wkdq
rudqjhv duh wkh qxpudluh11 Li rudqjhv zhuh wkh qxpudluh1 dqg li wkhuh
zhuh phqx frvwv/ wkh hfrqrp| zrxog eh fkdudfwhulvhg e| uljlglwlhv ri sulfhv
dqg zdjhv lq whupv ri rudqjhv1 Zlwk vxfk rudqjh uljlglwlhv/ prqhwdu| srolf|
zrxog eh hpdvfxodwhg1 H{sodlqlqj zk| prqh| lv wkh qxpudluh1 uhtxluhv
dq dsshdo wr vrph qrwlrq ri erxqghg udwlrqdolw|1 Lw lv kdug wr frpsxwh/
fdofxodwh dqg uh0fdofxodwh1 Wklv erxqghg udwlrqdolw| shuvshfwlyh dovr vxjjhvw
dqrwkhu uhdvrq zk| lq dwlrq ru gh dwlrq lv frvwo|= wkhuh duh frvwv dvvrfldwhg
zlwk wkh phqwdo h{huflvh ri phdvxulqj zlwk d |dugvwlfn zkrvh ohqjwk li iruhyhu
fkdqjlqj1 Vxfk phqwdo phqx frvwv fdqqrw eh dffrpprgdwhg lq frqyhqwlrqdo
hfrqrplf dqdo|vlv1
Zkhq idfhg zlwk wkh devhqfh ri d wkhru| ri wkh phglxp ri h{fkdqjh/ ri d
wkhru| ri wkh qxpudluh1 dqg ri d wkhru| ri qrplqdo uljlglwlhv/ wkh hfrqrplvwv
fdq gr wkuhh wklqjv1 Wkh uvw lv wr ohdyh wkh surihvvlrq lq ghvsdlu1 Wkh vhf0
rqg lv wr dujxh dv iroorzv= L fdqqrw h{sodlq qrplqdo uljlglwlhv lq p| idyrxuhg
sdudgljp1 Wkhuhiruh L zloo surfhhg dv li wkh| gr qrw h{lvw1 Wklv lv wkh frqyhq0
wlrqdo iuhvk0zdwhu dssurdfk/ frplqj rxw ri Fklfdjr/ Plqqhvrwd/ Urfkhvwhu/
Fduqhjlh0Phoorq dqg wkhlu lqwhoohfwxdo vxevlgldulhv1 L kdyh dozd|v ehhq dv0
wrqlvkhg e| wklv dwwlwxgh/ zklfk dprxqw wr vd|lqj= li L grq*w xqghuvwdqg
vrphwklqj/ lw fdqqrw h{lvw1
Wkh wklug dssurdfk lv pruh lqwhoohfwxdoo| prghvw dqg wkhuhiruh qdwxudoo|
dsshdov wr ph1 Lw dujxhv dv iroorzv1 L gr qrw kdyh d vdwlvidfwru| h{sodqdwlrq
ri qrplqdo uljlglwlhv11 Krzhyhu/ wkh| dsshdu wr eh wkhuh/ dqg wkh| dsshdu
wr pdwwhu iru pdfurhfrqrplf srolf|1 L zloo wkhuhiruh wu| dqg fdswxuh wkh
dssduhqw hpslulfdo uhjxodulwlhv dv ehvw L fdq/ xvlqj vrph dg0krf dgmxvwphqw
phfkdqlvp1 L zloo xvh zkdwhyhu vwuxfwxuh hfrqrplf wkhru| grhv surylgh wr
frqvwudlq wkh vhw ri shuplvvleoh dgmxvwphqw phfkdqlvp1 Devhqfh ri prqh|
looxvlrq lv rqh vxfk d0sulrul uhvwulfwlrq1 L wkhq surfhhg wr nhhs p| qjhuv
43
FKDSWHU 41 LQWURGXFWLRQ
furvvhg dqg krsh wkdw wkh qrplqdo sulfh dqg zdjh g|qdplfv L frph xs zlwk
duh lqyduldqw xqghu wkh nlqgv ri lqwhuyhqwlrqv shuiruphg e| srolf|/ wkh h{whu0
qdo hqylurqphqw/ qdwxuh ru dq| rwkhu idfwru1 Wkdw lv/ L krsh wkdw wkh Oxfdv
fulwltxh zrq*w vwulnh/ exw vwdqg uhdg| wr uhylvh p| ylhz ri prqh| zdjh dqg
sulfh g|qdplfv zkhqhyhu wkh dvvxphg surfhvv dsshdu wr euhdn grzq lq d
v|vwhpdwlf pdqqhu1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wklv dg0krf/ hfohfwlf dssurdfk fdq eh
irxqg lq Fkdswhu 5 rq vkruw0uxq djjuhjdwh vxsso| ehkdylrxu dqg zdjh0sulfh
g|qdplfv1
Wkh qh{w srlqw/ zklfk jhqhudolvhv wkh suhylrxv rqh/ frqfhuqv wkh uhod0
wlyh phulwv ri dg0krf ghflvlrq uxohv yhuvxv ehkdylrxu ghulyhg iurp h{solflw
rswlplvlqj fkrlfhv e| hfrqrplf djhqwv1 Khuh djdlq/ L kdyh irxqg wkdw dq
dwwlwxgh ri hqoljkwhqhg djqrvwlflvp lv rswlpdo1 Rswlplvlqj irxqgdwlrqv duh
dwwudfwlyh ehfdxvh rqh kdv wr eh ixoo| h{solflw derxw wkh remhfwlyhv ri wkh
rswlplvlqj djhqw dqg derxw wkh hqylurqphqw zlwklq zklfk fkrlfh lv h{hu0
flvhg +whfkqrorj|/ exgjhw frqvwudlqwv/ pdunhw vwuxfwxuh dqg rwkhu dvshfwv ri
wkh frpshwlwlyh hqylurqphqw/ lqirupdwlrq hwf1,1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ lw vkrxog
eh uhfrjqlvhg wkdw wklv lv e| qr phdqv d vx!flhqw frqglwlrq iru rewdlqlqj
vhqvleoh ehkdylrxudo uxohv1 Wkh rswlplvdwlrq ri dq duelwudu| remhfwlyh ixqf0
wlrq vxemhfw wr lpsodxvleoh frqvwudlqwv lv xqolnho| wr uhvxow lq xvhixo hfrqrplf
prghov1 L zrxog dovr dujxh wkdw rswlplvlqj irxqgdwlrqv duh dovr qrw qhfhvvdu|
iru wkh ghulydwlrq ri xvhixo ghflvlrq uxohv dqg wkh frqvwuxfwlrq ri lqwhuhvwlqj
htxloleulxp frqjxudwlrqv1 Rqh ixqgdphqwdo uhdvrq iru wklv lv wkdw hfrqrplf
djhqwv gr qrw nqrz wkh hqylurqphqw +wkh prgho, zlwklq zklfk wkh| rshudwh1
Wklv lv d pdmru frqfhswxdo dqg/ L zrxog dujxh/ sudfwlfdo zhdnqhvv ri udwlrqdo
h{shfwdwlrqv prghov/ zklfk dvvxph prgho0frqvlvwhqw h{shfwdwlrqv11 Djhqwv
kdyh wr ohduq derxw wkhlu hqylurqphqw1 Wkh frqfhsw ri *udwlrqdo ohduqlqj* lv
dq r{|prurq1
Vrph rswlplvlqj prghov/ vxfk dv wkh ryhuodsslqj jhqhudwlrqv prgho ri
frqvxphu ehkdylrxu/ lq erwk lwv Doodlv0Vdpxhovrq yhuvlrq dqg lq lwv \ddul0
Eodqfkdug yhuvlrq/ duh h{wuhpho| xvhixo iru jhwwlqj d kdqgoh rq lqwhujhq0
hudwlrqdo glvwulexwlrqdo lvvxhv/ lqfoxglqj wkh lqwhujhqhudwlrqdo uhglvwulexwlrq
dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh fkrlfh ri jryhuqphqw eruurzlqj yv1 fxuuhqw wd{hv1 H{0
whqvlyh xvh lv pdgh ri erwk nlqgv ri ROJ prghov lq wkh fkdswhu ghdolqj
zlwk sulydwh frqvxpswlrq ehkdylrxu1 Xqolnh wkh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh djhqw prgho/
wkh ROJ prgho kdv wkh plqlpdo dprxqw ri frqvxphu khwhurjhqhlw| +rog yv1
|rxqj/ fxuuhqwo| dolyh yv1 xqeruq, uhtxluhg iru d uvw vwde dw g|qdplf vfdo
srolf| lvvxhv1 Hyhq wkh ROJ prgho/ krzhyhu/ ryhuhvwlpdwhv wkh delolw| ri
prvw krxvhkrogv wr eruurz djdlqvw h{shfwhg ixwxuh oderxu lqfrph1 D vlp0
soh/ dg0krf/ prglfdwlrq wkdw doorzv iru oltxlglw|0frqvwudlqhg frqvxphuv lv
wr srvwxodwh wkdw d iudfwlrq k ri wkh srsxodwlrq iroorzv wkh olih0f|foh prgho
zkloh d iudfwlrq E k vlpso| frqvxphv lwv fxuuhqw lqfrph1 Rqh fdq ud0
44
wlrqdolvh vxfk *p|rslf* ehkdylrxu e| dvvxplqj wkdw wkhvh frqvxphuv kdyh
skhqrphqdoo| kljk sxuh udwhv ri wlph suhihuhqfh/ exw wkdw zrxog eh qr pruh
wkdq ydfxrxv uhodeholqj1 Prghov ri rswlplvlqj frqvxphu fkrlfh dqg sruwirolr
vhohfwlrq dovr surylgh vrph xvhixo *uvw lqvljkw* rq wkh urdg wr dq hpslulfdoo|
lpsohphqwdeoh uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri frqvxpswlrq dqg dvvhw ghpdqg1 Wklv lv
wuxh ghvslwh wkh khurlf hpslulfdo idloxuh ri hyhu| yhuvlrq ri wkh fdslwdo dvvhw
sulflqj prgho1 Wkh hhfw ri xqfhuwdlqw| rq lqyhvwphqw lq wkh suhvhqfh ri
frvwo| uhyhuvlelolw| dqg h{sdqgdelolw| ri lqyhvwphqw surmhfwv olnhzlvh fdq eh
dqdo|vhg frqyhqlhqwo| lq dq rswlplvlqj iudphzrun1
Lw kdv ehfrph idvklrqdeoh lq wkh odvw ghfdgh ru vr dprqj iuhvk zdwhu
hfrqrplvwv wr eh vqrrw| derxw wkh LV0OP/ djjuhjdwh ghpdqg0djjuhjdwh vxs0
so| prgho1 Wklv dwwlwxgh vhhpv txlwh plvsodfhg1 Wkh LV0OP/ DG0DV prgho
lv d yhu| xvhixo sruwpdqwhdx rq zklfk lw lv srvvleoh wr kdqj d juhdw ydulhw|
ri xvhixo vpdoo pdfurhfrqrplf prghov/ dg0krf/ rswlplvlqj/ hyroxwlrqdu| ru
zkdw qrw1 Wklv h{wuhpho| h{leoh dqg frqyhqlhqw zrunkruvh jxuhv surpl0
qhqwo| lq zkdw iroorzv1
Wkh rqo| vhqvleoh zd| wr surfhhg lv wr eh fdwkrolf lq rqh*v wdvwhv dqg wr
wu| dq|wklqj wkdw dsshduv wr kdyh d uhdvrqdeoh fkdqfh ri zrunlqj/ lq wkh
vhqvh ri surgxflqj vwdeoh uhodwlrqvklsv ehwzhhq revhuydeohv1 Ghflvlrq uxohv
fdq eh ghulyhg iurp rswlplvlqj ehkdylrxu/ vdwlvflqj ehkdylrxu/ sulpd0idflh
sodxvleoh uxohv ri wkxpe/ iurp ehkdylrxudo sv|fkrorj|/ iurp vrflr0elrorj|/
iurp wkh vzduplqj ehkdylrxu ri wkh diulfdqlvhg ehh/ iurp lqwurvshfwlrq ru e|
orrnlqj rxw ri wkh zlqgrz1 Htxloleulxp frqfhswv frqvwudlqlqj wkh uhodwlrq0
vklsv ehwzhhq lqglylgxdo djhqwv ru jurxsv ri djhqwv fdq olnhzlvh ydulhg dqg
qrq0vwdqgdug1
Ehlqj dq dffrxqwdqw dw khduw/ L kdyh d vwurqj suhihuhqfh/ zkhq prgholqj
pdunhw hfrqrplhv/ wr hpehg djhqwv* pdunhw wudqvdfwlrqv lq d frpsuhkhqvlyh
vhw ri exgjhw frqvwudlqwv dqg edodqfh vkhhw frqvwudlqwv1 Dv d sudfwlfdo pdw0
whu/ krzhyhu/ lw wxuqv rxw wkdw wkhuh duh odujh qxpehuv ri vlpsoh dqg vpdoo
g|qdplf pdfurhfrqrplf prghov wkdw |lhog xvhixo lqvljkwv zlwkrxw wkh ehqhw
ri frpsuhkhqvlyh vwrfn0 rz dffrxqwlqj1
Wkh lvvxh ri htxloleulxp yv1 glvhtxloleulxp prghov lv d sxuho| vhpdqwlf/
wkdw lv/ ydfxrxv rqh1 Htxloleulxp/ olnh udwlrqdolw|/ lv vxfk d zhdn frqfhsw
wkdw lw grhv qrw lpsrvh dq| vhulrxv frqvwudlqwv rq revhuydeoh ehkdylrxu1 Dq
htxloleulxp lv dq| frqjxudwlrq ri hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv wkdw vdwlvhv d vhw ri
frqglwlrqv +riwhq h{suhvvhg dv htxdolwlhv ru lqhtxdolwlhv, vhw e| wkh prghohu11
Lw fdq eh d frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp/ hyhq dq Duurz0Gheuhx htxloleulxp> lw
fdq eh d Qdvk htxloleulxp ru d Qdvk edujdlqlqj htxloleulxp1 Lw fdq eh dq
htxloleulxp zlwk ru zlwkrxw udwlrqlqj/ dqg zlwk ru zlwkrxw udwlrqdo +prgho0
frqvlvwhqw, h{shfwdwlrqv1 Wkxv dq dg0krf Nh|qhvldq prghov/ vxfk dv wkh
LV0OP {hg sulfh prgho/ lv dq htxloleulxp prgho/ vlpso| ehfdxvh lw vroyhv
45
FKDSWHU 41 LQWURGXFWLRQ
frqvlvwhqwo| iru rxwsxw dqg lqwhuhvw udwh frpelqdwlrqv wkdw vdwlvi| wkh prqh0
wdu| htxloleulxp frqglwlrq dqg wkh frqglwlrq wkdw h{shqglwxuh htxdov rxwsxw/
zkhq rxwsxw lv ghpdqg0frqvwudlqhg dqg wkh sulfh ohyho lv {hg1
Xvhixo pdfurhfrqrplf prghov pdqdjh wr frph xs zlwk vwdeoh uhodwlrq0
vklsv ehwzhhq revhuydeoh djjuhjdwhv wkdw uh hfw wkh lpsruwdqfh ri wkh xq0
ghuo|lqj plfurhfrqrplf khwhurjhqhlw| ri krxvhkrogv +dv frqvxphuv/ qdqfldo
dfwruv dqg zrunhuv,/ upv dqg qdqfldo lqwhuphgldulhv/ zlwkrxw h{srvlqj wkh
xvhu wr wkh qrq0wudqvsduhqw phvv wkdw lv wkh doprvw xqdyrlgdeoh e|0surgxfw
ri wkh h{solflw djjuhjdwlrq ri lqglylgxdo ehkdylrxu1 Sk|vlflvwv fdq vwxg| wkh
ehkdylrxu ri jdvhrxv forxgv zlwkrxw kdylqj wr exlog xs wkdw ehkdylrxu iurp
wkh h{solflw djjuhjdwlrq ri wkh ehkdylrxu ri wkh hohphqwdu| sduwlfohv wkdw
pdnh xs wkh jdv prohfxohv dqg forxgv1 Hfrqrplvwv fdq wkhuhiruh vxuho| eh
irujlyhq iru rqfh djdlq jrlqj erogo| zkhuh ihz vhhp wr zdqw wr jr dq| orqjhu/
e| srvwxodwlqj dqg whvwlqj uhodwlrqvklsv ehwzhhq djjuhjdwhv zlwkrxw zruu|0
lqj xqgxo| derxw wkh frqqhfwlrq ehwzhhq wkh djjuhjdwh uhodwlrqvklsv dqg wkh
ehkdylrxu ri wkh lqglylgxdo Mrhv dqg Pdulhv1 Wkdw/ dw dq| udwh/ lv zkdw L
gr urxwlqho| dqg xqdsrorjhwlfdoo|/ lq wkhvh ohfwxuhv1 Rswlplvlqj irxqgdwlrqv
vkrxog eh d phdqv wr wkh hqg ri pruh urexvw/ prghov wkdw fdq eh xvhg iru
srolf| dqdo|vlv/ qrw dq hqg lq wkhpvhoyhv1
Fkdswhu 5
Wkh Vwdwlf Forvhg Hfrqrp|
DG0DV Prgho
514
Wkh LV0OP/ djjuhjdwh ghpdqg 0 djjuhjdwh vxsso| prgho lv d vkruw uxq/ whp0
srudu|/ prphqwdu| ru lqvwdqwdqhrxv htxloleulxp prgho1 Lw wuhdwv dv jlyhq
doo h{shfwdwlrqv ri ixwxuh hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv/ wkh suhghwhuplqhg qdqfldo
dqg sk|vlfdo dvvhw vwrfnv dqg wkh uhdo sulfh ri htxlw|1
Lq wkh forvhg hfrqrp| yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho wkhuh duh wkuhh nlqgv ri djhqwv=
krxvhkrogv/ upv dqg wkh jryhuqphqw1 Krxvhkrogv duh frpshwlwlyh lq doo
pdunhwv lq zklfk wkh| rshudwh1 Ilupv duh frpshwlwlyh lq wkh oderxu pdunhw
dqg lq wkh qdqfldo pdunhwv1 Lq wkh Nh|qhvldq ru {hg0sulfh yhuvlrq ri wkh
prgho wkh| duh udwlrqhg lq wkh pdunhwv iru wkh jrrgv wkh| vhoo1 Lq wkh h{leoh
sulfh ohyho yhuvlrq/ upv duh frpshwlwlyh lq wkh jrrgv pdunhw dovr1 Krxvh0
krogv frqvxph/ vxsso| oderxu/ pdnh sruwirolr fkrlfhv/ sd| wd{hv dqg hqmr|
wkh ehqhwv ri sxeolf vshqglqj1 Krxvhkrogv rzq doo idfwruv ri surgxfwlrq/ lq0
foxglqj wkh hqwhusulvh vhfwru ri wkh hfrqrp|1 Lq wkh Nh|qhvldq ru {hg0sulfh
yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho/ rxwsxw dqg hpsor|phqw duh ghpdqg0ghwhuplqhg/ dqg
wkh oderxu vxsso| ghflvlrq fdq eh ljqruhg1 Ilupv ru hqwhusulvhv kluh oderxu/
uhqw fdslwdo vhuylfhv +ru xvh wkh vhuylfhv ri fdslwdo wkh| wkhpvhoyhv rzq,/ sur0
gxfh dqg vhoo rxwsxw/ hqjdjh lq lqyhvwphqw +{hg dqg lqyhqwru|, dqg qdqfh
wklv lqyhvwphqw wkurxjk vrph frpelqdwlrq ri uhwdlqhg hduqlqjv/ qhz htxlw|
lvvxhv ru frusrudwh eruurzlqj1 Iru vlpsolflw|/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw upv gr
qrw sd| wd{hv1 Wkh LV0OP/ DG0DV prgho lv prvw hdvlo| lqwhusuhwhg dv rqh
lq zklfk doo lqyhvwphqw lv qdqfhg e| qhz htxlw| lvvxhv1 Zh dvvxph wklv lq
zkdw iroorzv1 Wkh jryhuqphqw/ zklfk lv wkh frqvrolgdwhg jhqhudo jryhuqphqw
dqg fhqwudo edqn/ vshqgv rq sxeolf frqvxpswlrq dqg lqyhvwphqw/ udlvhv wd{
46
47
uhyhqxhv dqg rwkhu fxuuhqw uhyhqxhv/ sd|v wudqvihu sd|phqwv dqg vxevlglhv/
sd|v lqwhuhvw rq lwv sxeolf ghew dqg qdqfhv lwv qdqfldo ghflw e| sulqwlqj
edvh prqh| ru e| eruurzlqj1 Lwv ehkdylrxu lv h{rjhqrxv1
Wkh prgho kdv rqh krprjhqhrxv/ pdoohdeoh frpprglw|/ tc zklfk fdq
eh xvhg lqwhufkdqjhdeo| iru sulydwh frqvxpswlrq/ c sxeolf frqvxpswlrq/
} c sulydwh lqyhvwphqw/ Uc dqg sxeolf lqyhvwphqw/ U } 1 Wkh prqh| sulfh ri
wkh frpprglw| +wkh jhqhudo sulfh ohyho lq wklv rqh0jrrg prgho, lv Wkh
vkruw +rqh0shulrg ru lqvwdqwdqhrxv, lqwhuhvw udwh lq whupv ri wkh jrrg +wkh
vkruw uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh, lv o
Wkhuh duh wkuhh qdqfldo vwruhv ri ydoxh= qrq0lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj edvh prqh|/
c d oldelolw| ri wkh jryhuqphqw> lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj sxeolf ghew/ c dvvxphg wr
eh qrplqdoo| ghqrplqdwhg dqg zlwk d rqh0shulrg pdwxulw|> dqg uhdo fdslwdo/
g Wkh vdph v|pero/ gc lv xvhg wr ghqrwh erwk wkh sk|vlfdo fdslwdo vwrfn
wkdw lv dq dujxphqw lq wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq/ dqg wkh rzqhuvkls fodlp
wr wklv sk|vlfdo fdslwdo vwrfn/ ru htxlw|1 Wkh rqh0shulrg ru lqvwdqwdqhrxv
qrplqdo udwh ri lqwhuhvw rq wkh jryhuqphqw erqg lv c dqg wkh sulfh ri d xqlw
ri lqvwdoohg fdslwdo +dqg ri d vkduh ri htxlw|, lq whupv ri rxwsxw +wkh uhdo sulfh
ri fdslwdo ru Wrelq*v ^, lv ^1 Zh dovr ghqh wkh iroorzlqj ixuwkhu qrwdwlrq=
M G ghpdqg iru uhdo prqh| edodqfhv
A G uhdo wd{hv qhw ri wudqvihuv
A G lqfrph0lqghshqghqw wd{hv qhw ri wudqvihuv
G pdujlqdo JGS wd{ udwh
6 Gqrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh rq prqh|
o6 6 Z
G uhdo udwh ri uhwxuq rq prqh|
o. Guhdo udwh ri uhwxuq rq htxlw| +rzqhuvkls fodlpv rq uhdo fdslwdo,1
Z
G h{shfwhg sursruwlrqdo udwh ri lq dwlrq
Z G sursruwlrqdo udwh ri lq dwlrq> Z {
t_ G uhdo sulydwh glvsrvdeoh lqfrph
G Qrplqdo sulydwh qdqfldo zhdowk
@ G uhdo sulydwh qdqfldo zhdowk
` G prqh| zdjh
`
G uhdo zdjh
u G hpsor|phqw
=
Zh vwduw zlwk wkh wzr iroorzlqj htxloleulxp frqglwlrqv iru/ uhvshfwlyho|/
wkh jrrgv pdunhw 514 dqg wkh ghpdqg iru dqg vxsso| ri prqh| 5151
t ' nU nC
+514,
48
'M
+515,
' SEt_ c oc @
f St_ ( So f( S@ f
+516,
Wkh pdujlqdo surshqvlw| wr frqvxph/ St_ lv srvlwlyh exw ohvv wkdq rqh>
wkh hhfw ri wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh rq frqvxpswlrq/ So lv qrq0srvlwlyh dqg wkh
zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxpswlrq/ S@ lv qrq0qhjdwlyh1
t_ t A
+517,
A ' A7 n t
f
+518,
@
o Z
+519,
n
n ^g
+51:,
U '
Eoc tc g
o f(
t f(
g f
+51;,
D kljkhu uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh grhv qrw udlvh lqyhvwphqw/
o f Kljkhu JGS
grhv qrw orzhu lqyhvwphqw/
t fc dqg wkh kljkhu wkh fdslwdo vwrfn/ wkh orzhu
wkh udwh ri lqyhvwphqw/
g f
49
M ' Ec tc @
f( t : f( f @
+51<,
D kljkhu rssruwxqlw| frvw ri kroglqj prqh| grhv qrw lqfuhdvh wkh ghpdqg
iru prqh|/ f1 D kljkhu lqfrph ohyho +d sur{| iru wkh wudqvdfwlrqv
shuiruphg e| prqh|/ udlvhv wkh ghpdqg iru prqh|/ t : f Iru sruwirolr
glyhuvlfdwlrq uhdvrqv/d kljkhu vwrfn ri qdqfldo zhdowk lqfuhdvhv wkh ghpdqg
iru prqh|/ exw ohvv wkdq rqh0iru0rqh/ f @
Zk| lv wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh wkh uhdo rssruwxqlw| frvw ri kroglqj
prqh| dqg zk| lv wkhuh rqo| rqh udwh ri uhwxuq dujxphqw/ / lq wkh prqh|
ghpdqg ixqfwlrq/ zkhq wkhuh duh wkuhh qdqfldo dvvhwv/ prqh|/ jryhuqphqw
erqgv dqg fodlpv wr uhdo fdslwdo/ lq wkh prghoB
Wkh xqghuo|lqj prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq fdq eh zulwwhq dv iroorzv
M ' Eo6 c oc o. c tc @
Li wkh wkuhh vwruhv ri ydoxh duh jurvv vxevwlwxwhv/ zh kdyh o6 : f( o
f dqg o. f
Wkh uvw vlpsoli|lqj dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw jryhuqphqw erqgv dqg htxlw| duh
shuihfw vxevwlwxwhv dv vwruhv ri ydoxh/ wkdw lv/
o ' o.
Wkh prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq wkhuhiruh ehfrphv
M ' Eo6 c oc tc @
zlwk o6 : f dqg o f
Wkh vhfrqg vlpsoli|lqj dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw wkh ghpdqg iru prqh| ghshqgv
rqo| rq wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh uhdo udwhv ri uhwxuq rq erqgv dqg rq prqh|/
wkdw lv/
M ' Eo o6 c tc @
zlwk f
E| ghqlwlrq/
4:
o Z
o6 6 Z
Wkh prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq wkhuhiruh ehfrphv
M ' E 6 c tc @
Qduurz prqh| lv qrq0lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj/ wkdw lv/ 6 ' f Wklv jlyhv xv wkh
prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq zh duh zrunlqj zlwk1 Qrwh wkdw zlghu prqhwdu|
djjuhjdwhv/ +c 2c c e hwf1, duh wr d odujh h{whqw lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj/
dqg wkdw wkh qrplqdo rzq udwh ri uhwxuq rq eurdg prqh| lv wr d odujh h{whqw
pdunhw0ghwhuplqhg/ dqg whqgv wr pryh lq wkh vdph gluhfwlrq dv wkh qrplqdo
|lhog rq erqgv1
Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh ehkdylrxudo htxdwlrqv dqg lghqwlwlhv lqwr wkh wzr htxl0
oleulxp frqglwlrqv zh jhw=
n
7
S t E A c Z
c
n ^g n
E Z
c tc g n C ' t
Ec tc
n
n ^g '
+5143,
+5144,
+5145,
s u Etc ( c c c gc ^c Cc c A7c Z
' f
+5146,
Dvvxplqj wkdw wkh frqglwlrqv iru wkh lpsolflw ixqfwlrq wkhruhp wr krog
duh vdwlvhg e| 5145 dqg 5146/ zh fdq rewdlq iurp wkh qrq0olqhdu vwuxfwxudo
htxdwlrqv 5145 dqg 5146 d uhgxfhg irup olqhdu dssur{lpdwlrq dv iroorzv=
+4, Wrwdoo| glhuhqwldwh 5145 dqg 5146 dw vrph htxloleulxp t W c W ( W c W c W c g W c ^ W c
4;
u
stu _t n su _ n su _ n s
_ n su _ n sgu _g n s^u _^ n sCu _C
u
7
nsu _ n sAu
Z'f
7 _A n sZ
_
_t
_
'
63 5 U7
U7
s
sU7 sgU7 s^U7 sCU7 sU7 sAU7
sZ U7
s
stU7 sU7
7
u
7 stu su 8 7 su s
su sgu s^u sCu su sAu
sZ u
7
5
9
9
9
69
9
9
89
9
9
9
9
9
7
_
_
_
_g
_^
_C
_
_A7
_
Z
6
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8
4<
Iru wkh LV0OP prgho ri htxdwlrqv 5145 dqg 5146/ wklv h{huflvh uhvxowv lq
wkh iroorzlqj=
5
65
6
E St_ n
t So n
o
_t
7 t
8 7 _ 8 '
5
5
S@ n
2
9
7
E3@ 3@
2
S@
3@
S@
E^S@ n g S@ g
@
^@
t St_ St_
g@ f
9
9
69
9
So n
o 9
:9
f
89
9
9
9
9
9
7
_
_
_
_g
_^
_C
_
_A7
_
Z
6
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8
ru
6 5
63
E St_ n
t So n
o
_t
7 _ 8 ' 7 t
8
5
5
S@
S@
S@ n
2
E^S@ n
g S@ g t St_ St_
9
E3@ 3@
3@
@ ^@
g@ f
f
f
7
2
5
9
9
69
9
So n
o 9
:9
f
89
9
9
9
9
9
7
6
E St_ n
t So n
o
8 lv ghqrwhg
Wkh ghwhplqdqw ri wkh pdwul{ 7 t
(c wkdw lv/
( ' EE St_ n
t t ESo n
o
+5147,
_
_
_
_g
_^
_C
_
_A7
_
Z
6
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8
53
51414
g
)
) Ef
)
U
dqg
'
:
)EU Bg
f
f
f
g }
)}
)} Ef
)}
U}
'
:
54
)} EU } B} g }
f
f
f
+5148,
+5149,
+514:,
55
} B } g } +514;,
+514<,
56
51415
Wkh idploldu LV fxuyh lv wkh orfxv ri lqwhuhvw udwh dqg rxwsxw frpelqdwlrqv
wkdw vdwlvi| 5143/ wkh jrrgv pdunhw htxloleulxp frqglwlrq1 Lwv vorsh lq c t
vsdfh lv jlyhq e|
_
_t
'
U7
EE St_ n
t
f
So n
o
+5153,
_
_t
'
u
t
f
+5154,
51416
57
T
t
t
Ec tc @
51417
S@
n
2
n
E3@ 3@
2
ESo n o
f
+5155,
Wkh uhflsurfdo ri 5155 jlyhv wkh vorsh ri wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg fxuyh/ wkh
orfxv ri LV0OP htxloleulxp ohyhov ri rxwsxw iru glhuhqw ydoxhv ri wkh sulfh
ohyho/ wkdw lv
_
EE St_ n
t t ESo n
o
f
'
E3@ 3@
n
_t
ES
S@ 2 n
n
o
o
2
+5156,
1
Qrwh wkdw wklv zloo eh yhuwlfdo li So n
o ' f dqg S@ ' f Wklv lv wkh fdvh
zkhuh wkh ghpdqg iru jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv lv frpsohwho| lqvhqvlwlyh wr wkh
lqwhuhvw udwh + d yhuwlfdo LV fxuyh lq c t vsdfh, dqg wkhuh lv qr zhdowk hhfw
ru Sljrx hhfw rq frqvxpswlrq ghpdqg1
Wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg fxuyh zloo dovr eh yhuwlfdo +fkhfn ( li ' 4
dqg S@ ' f Wklv lv wkh fdvh ri dq lqqlwho| lqwhuhvw0vhqvlwlyh prqh| ghpdqg
ixqfwlrq +wkh Nh|qhvldq oltxlglw| wuds/ ru d krul}rqwdo OP fxuyh lq c t vsdfh,
dqg qr zhdowk hhfw lq wkh frqvxpswlrq ixqfwlrq1
58
_
'
_
d EE St_ n t o
E3@ 3@
2
t S@
n
2
Tf
+5157,
3S@
@
ESo n
o E3
f
(
+5158,
Wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw lq c t vsdfh1 Lw zloo qrw
vkliw li So n
o ' f dqg S@ ' f Lw zloo qrw vkliw hlwkhu li ' 4 dqg S@ ' f
Wkhvh duh wkh vdph frqglwlrqv wkdw zrxog pdnh wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg fxuyh
yhuwlfdo lq t vsdfh1
_
'
_
dE St_ n
t o
(
E3@
n t S@
Tf
+5159,
H{fhsw iru wkh wzr vshfldo fdvhv uhvxowlqj lq d yhuwlfdo DG fxuyh wkdw
fdqqrw eh vkliwhg e| h{sdqvlrqdu| prqhwdu| srolf|/ wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh
uljkw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw, dqg wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw1
59
_t
'
_
n ESo n
o @
Tf
(
+515:,
+515;,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxps0
wlrq ghpdqg, dqg wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw
rq prqh| ghpdqg,1 Qrwh wkdw iru jryhuqphqw erqgv wr kdyh d qhw zhdowk
hhfw/ wkhuh pxvw eh d ylrodwlrq ri ghew qhxwudolw| ru Ulfdugldq htxlydohqfh1
Dq Rshq Pdunhw Sxufkdvh ri Erqgv
_
_
_t
_
_n_'f
'
_n_'f
'
3ESo n
o
f
EE3 St_ n
t 3
f
+515<,
+5163,
Wkhuh lv qr qdqfldo zhdowk hhfw1 Rqo| wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv +wr wkh
uljkw,1
Dq Lqfuhdvh lq wkh Fdslwdo Vwrfn
_t
E^S@ n
g n ESo n
o ^@
'
Tf
_g
(
d EE St_ n
t o ^@ n t E^S@ n
g
_
'
Tf
_g
(
+5164,
+5165,
Wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq prqh|
ghpdqg,1 Wkh hhfw rq wkh LV fxuyh lv dpeljxrxv11
5:
+5166,
+5167,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxps0
wlrq1 Wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq prqh|
ghpdqg1
Dq Lqfuhdvh lq Sxeolf Vshqglqj rq Jrrgv dqg Vhuylfhv
_t
'
f
_C
(
+5168,
_
t
'
:f
_C
(
+5169,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw1 Rxwsxw lqfuhdvhv dw d jlyhq sulfh ohyho
xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1
Dq Lqfuhdvh lq wkh *Pdujlqdo Surshqvlw| wr Wd{*
_t
t St_
'
f
_
(
+516:,
_
t St_ t
'
f
_
(
+516;,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw1 Rxwsxw idoov xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1
Dq Lqfuhdvh lq Lqfrph0Lqghshqghqw Wd{hv
_t
E St_
f
'
7
(
_A
+516<,
5;
_
E St_ t
f
+5173,
'
7
(
_A
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw1 Rxwsxw idoov xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv
yhuwlfdo1 Qrwh wkdw dq htxdo lqfuhdvh lq C dqg lq A7 zloo vkliw wkh LV fxuyh
wr wkh uljkw1 Wklv lv wkh edodqfhg exgjhw pxowlsolhu1 Wkh sxeolf vshqglqj
pxowlsolhu h{fhhgv +lq pdjqlwxgh, wkh lqfrph0lqghshqghqw wd{ pxowlsolhu1
H{huflvh 51414 Zh dxjphqw wkh {hg0sulfh yhuvlrq ri wkh DG prgho zlwk d
edodqfhg exgjhw frqglwlrq1
n
S t E A7c Z
c
n ^g n
E Z
c tc g n C ' t
Ec tc
n
n ^g '
C ' A7 n t
Ilqg wkh hhfwv rq rxwsxw dqg wkh lqwhuhvw udwh ri dq lqfuhdvh lq sxeolf vshqg0
lqj +d, zkhq wkh lqfrph0lqghshqghqw wd{ A7 ydulhv hqgrjhqrxvo| wr pdlqwdlq
exgjhw edodqfh dqg +e, zkhq wkh pdujlqdo surshqvlw| wr wd{ ydulhv hqgrjh0
qrxvo| wr pdlqwdlq exgjhw edodqfh1 Frpphqw rq |rxu qglqjv1
Dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh h{shfwhg udwh ri lq dwlrq
_t
ESo n
o
'
f
_
Z
(
_
ESo n
o t
'
f
_
Z
(
+5174,
+5175,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv xs dqg wr wkh uljkw +lq c t vsdfh,1 Wkh pdjqlwxgh
ri wkh yhuwlfdo vkliw ri wkh LV fxuyh lv ohvv wkdq wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh h{shfwhg
udwh ri lq dwlrq xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1
Lw iroorzv wkdw
f
_o
ESo n
o t
'
_
Z
(
5<
51418
Wkh {hg sulfh prgho dvvxphv wkdw wkhuh duh qr fdsdflw| frqvwudlqwv rq
rxwsxw1 Wkhuh lv wkhuhiruh qr uhdo uhvrxufh frqvwudlqw wkdw olplwv wkh hhfw
ri dq lqfuhdvh lq sxeolf vshqglqj rq rxwsxw1
Dw d {hg lqwhuhvw udwh/ wkh lqfuhdvh lq rxwsxw dvvrfldwhg zlwk dq lqfuhdvh
lq sxeolf vshqglqj rq jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv zrxog eh=
_t
_C
'
'7=
:f
EE St_ n
t
+5176,
Wklv lv/ ri frxuvh/ wkh vlpsoh sxeolf vshqglqj pxowlsolhu iurp wkh *Nh|qh0
vldq Furvv*1 Wkh fkdqjh lq rxwsxw jlyhq lq 5176 fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh krul}rqwdo
vkliw ri wkh LV fxuyh lq c t vsdfh1 Zkhq lqfrph h{sdqgv/ wkh wudqvdfwlrqv
ghpdqg iru prqh| lqfuhdvhv1 Lq rughu wr pdlqwdlq prqhwdu| htxloleulxp/
wkh lqwhuhvw udwh kdv wr ulvh/ furzglqj rxw lqwhuhvw0vhqvlwlyh sulydwh vshqg0
lqj1 Wklv lv d irup ri *qdqfldo furzglqj rxw* gxh wr qrq0dffrpprgdwlqj
prqhwdu| srolf|1
51419
Lq sudfwlfh fhqwudo edqnv gr qrw xvh wkh prqh| vwrfn dv dq lqvwuxphqw1 Eurdg
prqhwdu| djjuhjdwhv/ zklfk frqvlvw pdlqo| ri oldelolwlhv ri wkh edqnlqj v|vwhp
dqg ri rwkhu ghsrvlw0wdnlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv/ fdqqrw eh gluhfwo| frqwuroohg e| wkh
prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv1 Hyhq qduurz prqh|/ f c wkh prqhwdu| edvh ru kljk0
srzhuhg prqh| +fxuuhqf| dqg frpphufldo edqn ghsrvlwv zlwk wkh fhqwudo
edqn,/ zklfk lq sulqflsoh frxog eh frqwuroohg h{dfwo|/ duh qrw/ lq sudfwlfh
xvhg dv dq lqvwuxphqw ri prqhwdu| srolf|1 Fhqwudo edqnv xvh rshq pdunhw
rshudwlrqv dqg yduldwlrqv lq uhvhuyh uhtxluhphqwv wr lq xhqfh prqh| pdunhw
frqglwlrqv dqg rwkhu qdqfldo pdunhwv/ exw wkh pdlq lqvwuxphqw lv d vkruw0
whup qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh1 Lq wkh XN/ d 50zhhn uhsr udwh lv wkh rshudwlrqdo
lqvwuxphqw1
Lq wkh LV0OP prgho zlwk d {hg sulfh ohyho/ zh fdq dqdo|vh wklv uhsuh0
vhqwdwlrq ri prqhwdu| srolf| e| wuhdwlqj dv wkh srolf| lqvwuxphqw1 Wkh
qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn wkhq ehfrphv dq hqgrjhqrxv yduldeoh1 Frqvlghu djdlq
wkh LV0OP prgho ehorz1
63
n
n ^g '
Zlwk ' 7= / wkh OP fxuyh ehfrphv krul}rqwdo lq c t vsdfh1 Zh duh hhf0
wlyho| lq wkh Nh|qhvldq oltxlglw| wuds/ qrw ehfdxvh ri dq lqqlwho| lqwhuhvw0
vhqvlwlyh ghpdqg iru prqh| exw ehfdxvh ri dq lqqlwho| lqwhuhvw0vhqvlwlyh vxs0
so| ri prqh|1 Qrwh wkdw/ zkloh lv hqgrjhqrxv/ lq wkh vkruw uxq u nc
wkh wrwdo vwrfn ri qdqfldo oldelolwlhv ri wkh jryhuqphqw/ lv suhghwhuplqhg1
Wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri n ehwzhhq dqg lv hqgrjhqrxv1
Wkh uhgxfhg irup djjuhjdwh ghpdqg ghulydwlyhv ru pxowlsolhuv fdq eh
irxqg iurp=
Ec tc
65
6
_t
E St_ n
t f
7 t
8 7 _ 8 '
5
5
5
7
S@ u2
u@ 3
2
9
9
9
69
So n
o 9
9
89
f
9
9
9
9
9
7
Iru lqvwdqfh/ wkh sulfh ohyho/ qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg jryhuqphqw vshqg0
lqj pxowlsolhuv duh jlyhq e|
{'
E St_
t
:f
_t
S@ u
f
'
_
{
EE St_ n
t
_
'
_
{
u@ 3
2
t S@ u2
Vf
_
_
_u
_g
_^
_C
_
_A7
_
Z
6
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8
64
'
:f
_C
{
_
t
'
:f
_C
{
Wkh jryhuqphqw vshqglqj pxowlsolhu lq wklv fdvh lv wkh *Nh|qhvldq furvv*
pxowlsolhu/ vlqfh wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv shjjhg1
5141:
65
' SEoc o, c t_ c @
So f( So, f( f St_ ( S@ f
Wkh vhfrqg prglfdwlrq lv wr lqwurgxfh dq htxloleulxp uhodwlrqvkls iru
wkh ghpdqg iru ordqv/ \_ c dqg vxsso| ri ordqv/ \r 1
Wkh ghpdqg iru ordqv e| qrq0edqn hqwhusulvhv dqg krxvhkrogv ghshqgv
qhjdwlyho| rq wkh uhdo ordq udwh dqg srvlwlyho| rq wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh1 Zkhq
erwk wkh uhdo ordq udwh dqg wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lqfuhdvh e| wkh vdph dprxqw/
wkh ghpdqg iru ordqv idoov1 Wkh ghpdqg iru ordqv dovr ghshqgv qhjdwlyho| rq
wkh frvw ri htxlw| fdslwdo/ sur{lhg e| ^
66
\_ ' b_ Eoc o, c ^
b_o : f( b_o, f( b_o n b_o, f( b_^ f
+5177,
Wkh vxsso| ri ordqv e| edqnv lv sduw ri wkh dvvhw vlgh ri wkh edqnv* edodqfh
vkhhw1 Rq wkh oldelolw| vlgh duh ghsrvlwv/ rq wkh dvvhw vlgh ordqv/ jryhuqphqw
erqgv dqg uhvhuyhv/ zklfk duh sduw ri wkh prqhwdu| edvh 1 Wkh vxsso| ri
ordqv lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh uhdo ordq udwh dqg idoov zlwk wkh uhdo erqg udwh1 Zkhq
erwk udwhv lqfuhdvh e| wkh vdph dprxqw/ wkh vxsso| ri ordqv lqfuhdvhv1 Wkh
vxsso| ri ordqv dovr lqfuhdvhv/ iru dq| jlyhq ordq udwh dqg erqg udwh/ zlwk
wkh ydoxh ri sulydwh +vwulfwo| vshdnlqj sulydwh qrq0edqn, qdqfldo zhdowk1
Ilqdqfldo zhdowk fdq eh xvhg dv froodwhudo wr vhfxuh ordqv1 Wklv plwljdwhv wkh
dgyhuvh vhohfwlrq dqg prudo kd}dug sureohpv uhvwulfwlqj wkh vxsso| ri ordqv1
Ilqdoo|/ d odujhu ydoxh ri wkh uhdo prqhwdu| edvh lqfuhdvhv wkh vxsso| ri ordqv1
Wkh vlpsohvw zd| wr dfklhyh wklv uhvxow lv wr dvvxph wkdw edqn uhvhuyhv duh
d {hg iudfwlrq ri wkh vwrfn ri edqn ghsrvlwv/ exw d ohvv uljlg dssurdfk wr
edqn uhvhuyhv fdq jhqhudwh wkh vdph uhvxow1
bro
f( bro,
\r ' br Eoc o, c @c
: f( bro n bro, : f( br@ : f( br* : f
\r ' \_
+5178,
+5179,
br E Z
c , Z
c
n
n ^g '
n
n ^gc ' b_ E Z
c , Z
c ^
+517;,
+517<,
Lq wkh {hg sulfh yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho/ zh qrz ghwhuplqh wkh 6 htxloleulxp
yduldeohv c , c dqg t 1
Zkloh voljkwo| pruh lqyroyhg/ wkh wudqvplvvlrq fkdqqhov ri prqhwdu| sro0
lf| duh yhu| vlplodu1 Dq lqfuhdvh lq zloo uhgxfh erwk dqg , dqg udlvh
t
67
515
+5183,
b8 Egc u( X
f
:
:
f
f
f
f
Vlqfh X vwdqgv iru wkh ohyho ri h!flhqf|/ lw iroorzv +e| ghqlwlrq, wkdw
8X : f
Qrwh wkdw/ zlwk frqvwdqw uhwxuqv wr vfdoh/ wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq fdq eh
zulwwhq lq *lqwhqvlyh* irup=
+ ' s E&c X
dqg + tu
zkhuh & g
u
Zh dovr dvvxph wkdw wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq vdwlvhv wkh Lqdgd frqgl0
wlrqv=
s Efc X ' f
*4 s& E&c X ' 4
&<f
&<"
68
' X 4?
Xc @c K : f
g u
c
@ K
69
'
t ` E n u
n
+5184,
Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq lqwr 5184 iru tc zh jhw wkh surw0
pd{lplvlqj uvw0rughu frqglwlrq
` E n E n
' 8u Eu_ c gc X
+5185,
Wkh pdujlqdo surgxfw ri oderxu htxdov wkh pdujlqdo frvw ri oderxu1 Wkh
c lv qrw wkh rqo| frpsrqhqw ri wkh pdujlqdo
zrunhu*v wdnh krph uhdo zdjh/ `
frvw ri oderxu1 Sd|uroo wd{hv dqg lqgluhfw wd{hv gulyh d zhgjh ehwzhhq uhdo
wdnh0krph sd| dqg wkh uhdo pdujlqdo frvw wr wkh hpsor|hu ri hpsor|lqj dq
dgglwlrqdo zrunhu1
Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh vxsso| ri oderxu lv d qrq0ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh
zrunhu*v diwhu0wd{ zdjh1 Wkhuh lv d frqvwdqw sursruwlrqdo lqfrph wd{ udwh/ +
dssolhg wr doo zdjh lqfrph1 Wklv gulyhv d ixuwkhu zhgjh ehwzhhq wkh diwhu0wd{
zdjh ri wkh zrunhu dqg wkh pdujlqdo frvw ri oderxu wr wkh hpsor|hu1 Qrwh
wkdw wkh oderxu vxsso| uhodwlrqvkls lv zulwwhq lq whupv ri wkh vxsso| sulfh ri
oderxu
`
n +
' Eur
+5186,
f
Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh oderxu pdunhw fohduv1 Wkh wkuhh nh| dvvxpswlrqv iru
wkh oderxu pdunhw duh wkhuhiruh wkdw +d, lw lv frpshwlwlyh/ +e, erwk ghpdqg
dqg vxsso| ghshqg rq uhdo yduldeohv rqo| +wkhuh lv qr prqh| looxvlrq ri dq|
nlqg, dqg +f,/ wkh uhdo zdjh lv shuihfwo| h{leoh dqg fohduv wkh oderxu pdunhw
lqvwdqwdqhrxvo|1
ur ' u_ ' u
+5187,
' Eu
E n E n E n +
+5188,
6:
Wkh nh| srlqw wr qrwh lv wkdw/ zlwk wkh fdslwdo vwrfn dqg whfkqrorj|
jlyhq/ wkh htxloleulxp ohyho ri hpsor|phqw1 ghshqgv rqo| rq wkh wkuhh +glv0
wruwlrqdu|, wd{ udwhv1 Lw lv lqghshqghqw ri dq|wklqj qrplqdo1 Lw lv dovr lqgh0
shqghqw ri sxeolf vshqglqj/ C/ dqg ri wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg hhfwv ri wd{hv1
Rqo| wkh *wd{ zhgjhv* c dqg + dhfw wkh htxloleulxp ohyho ri hpsor|0
phqw/ wkurxjk frqyhqwlrqdo plfurhfrqrplf lqfhqwlyh hhfwv ru *vxsso|0vlgh*
hhfwv1 Jlyhq gc Xc c dqg + c wkh uhdo zdjh dqg wkh ohyho ri uhdo rxwsxw
zloo dovr eh lqghshqghqw ri wkh *ghpdqg vlgh* ri wkh hfrqrp|1 Wkh djjuhjdwh
vxsso| fxuyh zloo wkhuhiruh eh yhuwlfdo lq c t vsdfh1
Htxloleulxp hpsor|phqw lv uhgxfhg e| lqfuhdvhv lq dq| ri wkh wkuhh wd{
zhgjhv1 Wkh yhuwlfdo DV +djjuhjdwh vxsso|, fxuyh lq c t vsdfh vkliwv wr wkh
ohiw1
Zh fdq vroyh htxloleulxp hpsor|phqw lpsolflwo| iurp 51881
u ' ,EXc gc c c +
,X '
8uX
Tf
E n E n E n + l
,g '
8ug
f
E n E n E n + l
, '
Eu
f
E n l
, '
Eu
f
E n l
, + '
Eu
f
E n + l
l '
8uu
:f
E n E n E n +
6;
+5189,
Iru wkh h{leoh sulfh fdvh/ zh fdq vxevwlwxwh wkh ixoo0hpsor|phqw ohyho ri
rxwsxw +iurp 5189, lqwr wkh LV dqg OP htxloleulxp frqglwlrqv1 Wklv |lhogv
n
7
n ^g+518:,
S 8 Egc ,EXc gc c c + c X E A c Z
c
n
d Z
c 8 Egc ,EXc gc c c + c X c go n C
' 8 Egc ,EXc gc c c + c X
n
n ^g '
+518;,
_
_
U7
S@ n
2
'
f
So n
o
+518<,
6<
_
_
'
E3@ 3@
2
u
f
+5193,
S@
n
2
E3@ 3@
2
65
6
So n
o
_
8 7 _ 8 '
5
5
7
S@
3@
>8u ,
>8u ,
>8u , +
7
n t 8u , t 8u , t 8u , +
9
9
69
So n
o 9
9
89
f
9
9
9
9
7
6
_
>E8X n 8u ,X
9 _ :
:
t E8X n 8u ,X 8 9
7 _ + 8
X
6
+5194,
zkhuh
> EE St_ n
t : f
6
5
So n
o
S@ n
2
8 lv djdlq ghqrwhg
Wkh ghwhuplqdqw ri wkh pdwul{ 7 E3@23@
(cwkdw lv/
( ' S@
n
2
E @ @
2
ESo n
o : f
_
_
_g
_^
_C
_
_A7
_
Z
6
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
8
73
+5196,
S@
_
'
_
_
Li ' fcwkhq _
'f
2
E3@ 3@
2
S@
f
+5197,
_
'
_
n ESo n
o @
Tf
(
n E3@23@ S@
+5198,
@
S@ n
2
_
'
:f
+5199,
_
(
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxps0
wlrq ghpdqg, dqg wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw
rq prqh| ghpdqg,1 Wkh vkliw ri wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg fxuyh lv dpeljxrxv1
Wkh DV fxuyh grhv qrw vkliw1
Dq Rshq Pdunhw Sxufkdvh ri Erqgv
_
_
_
_
_n_'f
'
_n_'f
'
3ESo n
o
3S@ En
f
f
+519:,
+519;,
Wkhuh lv qr qdqfldo zhdowk hhfw1 Rqo| wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv +wr wkh
uljkw,1 Wkh DG fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw1 Wkh DV fxuyh grhv qrw vkliw1
74
E n _
_E n
_
' _
'
_
_E n
_
' _
'f
_
'
_g
S@
n
2
E^@ n t E8g n 8u ,g
E3@ 3@
2
E>E8g n 8u ,g E^S@ n g
+51:3,
Wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw +ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq prqh|
ghpdqg,1 Wkh hhfw rq wkh LV fxuyh lv dpeljxrxv1 Wkh DV fxuyh vkliwv wr
wkh uljkw1
Dq Lqfuhdvh lq wkh Vwrfn Pdunhw Lqgh{
_
gS@ n ESo n
o g@
'
Uf
_^
(
_
'
_^
S@
n
2
g@ n
E3@ 3@
2
gS@
+51:4,
:f
+51:5,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxps0
wlrq1 Wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw ehfdxvh ri wkh zhdowk hhfw rq prqh|
ghpdqg1 Wkh DV fxuyh grhv qrw vkliw1
Tf
75
E3@ 3@
2
+51:6,
:f
+51:7,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw1 Rxwsxw lqfuhdvhv dw d jlyhq sulfh ohyho
+wkh DG fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw, xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1 Wkh DV
fxuyh grhv qrw vkliw1
Dq Lqfuhdvh lq wkh *Pdujlqdo Surshqvlw| wr Wd{*
_
t St_
'
f
_
(
_
'
_
E3@ 3@
2
t St_
+51:8,
+51:9,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw1 Rxwsxw idoov dw d jlyhq sulfh ohyho +wkh DG
fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw, xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1 DV grhv qrw vkliw1
Dq Lqfuhdvh Lq Lqfrph0Lqghshqghqw Wd{hv
_
St
' _ f
7
(
_A
_
'
_A7
E3@ 3@
2
+51::,
St_
+51:;,
Wkh LV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw1 Rxwsxw idoov dw d jlyhq sulfh ohyho +wkh DG
fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw, xqohvv wkh OP fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1
76
E3@ 3@
2
+51:<,
ESo n
o
_
f
'
E3@ 3@
n
_
Z
ES
S@ 2 n
n
o
o
2
+51;3,
_
_o
Qrwh wkdw _
' +ru/ htxlydohqwo|/ _
' f hlwkhu li prqh| ghpdqg lv
Z
Z
lqwhuhvw0lqhodvwlf + ' 4 ru li wkhuh lv qr zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxpswlrq
+S@ ' f,1
k
l
E3@ 3@
>
8u , S@ n
t
2
2
(
+51;4,
Tf
_
8u , E> n t ESo n
o
:f
'
_
(
_
'
_
k
l
E3@ 3@
>
8u , S@ n
t
2
2
(
+51;6,
Tf
8u , + E> n t ESo n
o
_
'
:f
_ +
(
_
'
_ +
k
l
E3@ 3@
8u , + S@ n
>
t
2
2
(
+51;5,
+51;7,
+51;8,
Tf
+51;9,
Iru doo wkuhh wd{ zhgjhv/ wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg fxuyh grhv qrw vkliw1 Wkh
djjuhjdwh vxsso| fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw1
77
_
E8X n 8u ,X E> n t ESo n
o
'
f
_X
(
+suredeo|,
_
'
_X
k
l
E3@ 3@
E8X n 8u ,X S@ n
>
t
2
2
(
Tf
+51;:,
+51;;,
Wkh DV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw1 Wkh DG fxuyh grhv qrw vkliw1
Wkh uhdo rxwsxw pxowlsolhuv duh dv iroorzv=
_t
_t
_t
_t
_t
_t
_t
'
'
'
'
' 7 '
'f
_
_
_^
_C
_
_
Z
_A
_t
' 8g n 8u ,g : f
_g
_t
' 8u , f
_
_t
' 8u , f
_
_t
' 8u , + f
_ +
_t
' 8X n 8u ,X T f
_X
+suredeo| : f,
Dq lqwhuhvwlqj surshuw| ri wkh prgho lv wkdw uhyhqxh0qhxwudo fkdqjhv lq
wkh pl{ ri lqfrph wd{/ lqgluhfw wd{ dqg sd|uroo wd{ kdyh qr hhfw rq wkh
jhqhudo sulfh ohyho +ru rq dq|wklqj hovh,1
51514
78
'
:
'
8 Eu
f
f
f
Glvwruwlrqdu| wd{hv duh dovr ljqruhg/ ' ' + ' fc dqg djjuhjdwh
wd{hv qhw ri wudqvihuv duh lqghshqghqw ri lqfrph/ ' f
Wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevwlwxwlrq wkhru| ri oderxu vxsso| lpsolhv wkdw fxu0
|
uhqw oderxu vxsso|/ ur| c lv dq lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh fxuuhqw uhdo zdjh/ `
|
dqg d ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq
ri wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri qh{w shulrg*v
E`|n *|n e
uhdo zdjh/ no|c|n
Evhh h1j1 Kdoo ^4:`,1
ur|
`| E`|n *|n e
'
c
|
n o|c|n
: f( 2 f
+51;<,
Wklv lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkhuh ehlqj qr hhfw rq wkh vxsso| ri oderxu iurp1
d shupdqhqw lqfuhdvh lq wkh uhdo zdjh1 Wklv zrxog uhtxluh=
n
2
'f
no
`
+51<3,
79
`
co
+51<4,
Htxdwlrqv 51<3 dqg 51<4 fdq eh xvhg wr holplqdwh u dqg h{suhvv wkh uhdo
zdjh dv d ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh=
`
' Eo
'
8 2
f
8
n
c 8 EdE Z
c Z
o c
'
+51<6,
7:
Qrwh wkdw
n 2 '
2
:f
8
+51<8,
Wkh uvw ri wkhvh wzr dvvxpswlrqv kdv ehhq vwdqgdug vr idu1 Wkh vhf0
rqg uhtxluhv wkdw d kljkhu lqwhuhvw udwh uhgxfhv wkh ghpdqg iru prqh|/ hyhq
wkrxjk wkhuh qrz lv d vhfrqg hhfw ri d kljkhu udwh ri lqwhuhvw rq prqh| gh0
pdqg= d kljkhu lqwhuhvw udwh udlvhv hpsor|phqw/ rxwsxw dqg wkh wudqvdfwlrqv
ghpdqg iru prqh|1
Wkh ghwhuplqdqw ri wkh pdwul{
n
S@ 2
E St_
t 8 E n 2 ESo n
o
E3@23@ E n t 8 E n 2
ghqrwhg (c lv srvlwlyh1
Dq lqfuhdvh lq sxeolf vshqglqj kdv wkh iroorzlqj hhfw rq wkh sulfh ohyho
dqg wkh qrplqdo +dqg uhdo, lqwhuhvw udwh=
_
E n t 8 E n 2
'
: f li 51<8 lv vdwlvhg
_C
(
E3 3
@
@
_
2
'
:f
+51<9,
_C
(
Kljkhu jryhuqphqw vshqglqj udlvhv wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh1 Zlwk h{0
shfwhg lq dwlrq jlyhq/ wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lqfuhdvhv dovr1 Hpsor|phqw ulvhv
ehfdxvh ri wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevwlwxwlrq hhfw rq oderxu vxsso|1 Rxwsxw
lqfuhdvhv1 Qrwh wkdw lw lv wkh ixoo hpsor|phqw ohyho ri rxwsxw wkdw lqfuhdvhv=
wkh yhuwlfdo DV fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw1 Ehfdxvh ri 51<8/ wkh sulfh ohyho
ulvhv1 Zkloh wkh djjuhjdwh vxsso| fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh uljkw/ 51<8lv vx!flhqw
wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh vkliw ri wkh DG fxuyh grplqdwhv1
7;
'
'
:
8 Eu|3
f
f
f
+51<:,
Vlqfh zdjhv duh sdlg rqh shulrg ehiruh wkh rxwsxw lv vrog/ wkh surw lq
shulrg | lv
| ' | t| E n | `|3 u|3
Wkh uvw0rughu frqglwlrq iru surw0pd{lplvlqj hpsor|phqw lv
| 8 Eu|3 ' E n | `|3
+51<;,
n Z|
|
|3
dqg
|
`|
|
+51<<,
Rqh zd| wr wklqn derxw wklv lv wkdw wkh up kdv wr eruurz wr sd| lwv
zrunirufh ehfdxvh wkh rxwsxw dqg vdohv uhyhqxh surgxfhg e| wkh zrunirufh
7<
rqo| frphv rxw ri wkh slsholqh zlwk d odj1 Vlqfh zrunlqj fdslwdo lv lqyroyhg
lq wkh surgxfwlyh surfhvv/ wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv sduw ri wkh frvw ri oderxu1
Wkh rog Dxvwuldqv zurwh h{whqvlyho| derxw fdslwdo dv lqyroylqj odjv lq sur0
gxfwlrq/ urxqgderxwqhvv hwf1 Prghov zlwk odjv ehwzhhq lqsxwv dqg rxwsxwv
duh wkhuhiruh vrphwlphv uhihuuhg wr dv *Dxvwuldq* prghov1 D xvhixo uhihuhqfh
lv Eolqghu ^9`
Zh uhyhuw wr wkh vlpsoh oderxu vxsso| ixqfwlrq
' Eu
f
+51433,
Gursslqj wkh wlph vxevfulswv +wkdw lv/ fkhdwlqj d olwwoh,/ 4518; dqg 51433
lpso| wkdw htxloleulxp hpsor|phqw lv d ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh uhdo lqwhu0
hvw udwh=
Eu '
ru
8 Eu
no
u ' Eo
f
Zh fdq zulwh wkh LV0OP/ DG0DV prgho zlwk wkh Dxvwuldq vxsso| vlgh dv
iroorzv=
n
7
S 8 EE Z
A c Z
c
n
E Z
c 8 EE Z
n C ' 8 EE Z
+51434,
n
'
c 8 EE Z
c
+51435,
H{huflvh 51515 Fkhfn wkdw wkh hhfw ri dq lqfuhdvh lq sxeolf vshqglqj lv +d,
wr udlvh wkh udwh ri lqwhuhvw/ +e, wr uhgxfh hpsor|phqw dqg rxwsxw/ dqg +f, wr
udlvh wkh sulfh ohyho1 Surylgh dq lqwxlwlyh h{sodqdwlrq dqg vkrz wkhvh hhfwv
judsklfdoo|/ lq whupv ri vkliwv ri wkh LV dqg OP fxuyhv dqg wkh DG dqg DV
fxuyhv1
83
51515
Frqvlghu djdlq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh dxwkrulwlhv shj udwkhu wkdq Rxwsxw
lv h{rjhqrxv1 Iru vlpsolflw| zh rplw wkh fdslwdo vwrfn1 Wkh wzr hqgrjhqrxv
yduldeohv duh wkh sulfh ohyho/ c dqg wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn/ 1 Qrwh
djdlq wkdw/ lq wkh vkruw0uxq/ wkh wrwdo qdqfldo oldelolwlhv ri wkh jryhuqphqw/
u n c lv suhghwhuplqhg1 Wklv phdqv wkdw jryhuqphqw rshq pdunhw rs0
hudwlrqv dqg krxvhkrog sruwirolr uhvkx"hv dw d srlqw lq wlph duh frqvwudlqhg
e|
_u ' _ n _ ' f
Wkh prgho*v htxloleulxp frqglwlrqv duh jlyhq ehorz1
u
7
S t E A c Z
c
n
E Z
c t n C ' t
Ec tc
u
'
84
li d fkdqjh lq wkh jhqhudo sulfh ohyho grhv qrw fkdqjh uhdo qdqfldo zhdowk/
wkdw lv u ' f ru ' Wkh pxowlsolhuv pdnh wklv fohdu1 Lw lv frqyhqlhqw
wr fkrrvh wkh uhdo vwrfn ri prqh| edodqfhv dqg wkh sulfh ohyho dv wkh wzr
hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv1 Wkh pxowlsolhuv duh irxqg iurp=
5
7
S@
@ u
2
u
2
6
65
f
_
8'
87 _
6
_
:
9
6 9 _u :
:
So n
o 9
9 _t :
:
9
8
f
9 _C :
9 _ :
:
9
7 _A7 8
_
Z
+51436,
5
t St_ St_
f
f
f
zkhuh
> EE St_ n
t : f
6
5
S@ u2 f
8 / ghqrwhg ( lv ( '
Wkh ghwhuplqdqw ri wkh pdwul{ 7 @2u
S@ u2 f xqohvv S@ ' f ru u ' fc lq zklfk fdvh wkhuh lv qrw qrplqdo
lqghwhuplqdf|/ exw dq ryhughwhuplqdf| ri wkh uhdo yduldeohv lq wkh prgho1
Zlwk S@ ' f ru u ' fc wkh prgho fdq eh uhzulwwhq dv
S t E A7c Z
c f n
E Z
c t n C ' t
Ec tc f '
+51437,
85
_
ESo n
o
'
f
_
(
_
_
'
S@
u
2
n @ uESo n
o
Vf
(
D kljkhu lqwhuhvw udwh orzhuv wkh sulfh ohyho1 Li wkh zhdowk hhfw rq wkh
ghpdqg iru uhdo prqh| edodqfhv lv vpdoo/ lw zloo dovr uhgxfh wkh ghpdqg iru
uhdo prqh| edodqfhv1
_
'
:f
_C
(
_
_C
'
u
2 @
D kljkhu ohyho ri sxeolf vshqglqj udlvhv wkh sulfh ohyho dqg/ wkurxjk wkh
zhdowk hhfw rq prqh| ghpdqg/ uhgxfhv wkh uhdo prqh| vwrfn1
Qrz frqvlghu zkdw zrxog kdsshq li jryhuqphqw erqgv zhuh lqgh{0olqnhg
udwkhu wkdq qrplqdoo| ghqrplqdwhg1 Ohw K eh wkh rxwvwdqglqj vwrfn ri rqh0
shulrg lqgh{0olqnhg sxeolf ghew1 Lq wklv fdvh u n K Wkh prgho
ehfrphv
S t E A7c Z
c
n K n
E Z
c t n C ' t
+51438,
Ec tc
n K '
+51439,
+5143:,
Wkh pxowlsolhuv iru wkh prgho jlyhq e| 51438/ 51439 dqg 5143:/ fdq eh irxqg
iurp 5143;1
5
7
S@
2
E3@
2
86
6
_
8 7 _ 8 '
65
5
5
ESo n
o E St_
t
7
t
5
Wkh ghwhuplqdqw ri wkh pdwul{ 7
69
t St_ St_ So n
o 9
9
89
f
f
f
f
9
9
7
S@
2
E3@
2
6
8 lv S@
6
_
_t :
:
_C :
:
_ :
:
_A7 8
_
Z
+5143;,
f xqohvv
' SEoc @ n M
S@nM : f
87
n
nK
"
e3
Ur
|
oE_r
+5143<,
"
e3
Ur
|
oE_r
d u Er CEr n
Er
o_r
Er
+51443,
E|
n
E| ' S oE|c
E|
]
|
"
e3
Ur
|
$
Er
oE_r
CEro_r
d+u Er n
Er
+51444,
Zh qrz zdyh rxu kdqgv +wklv fdq eh pdgh uljrurxv, dqg dvvxph wkdw
wkh jryhuqphqw krogv frqvwdqw lwv ixwxuh vhtxhqfhv ri uhdo sxeolf vshqglqj
dqg uhdo vhljqlrudjh +zh dovr kdyh wr dvvxph wkdw wkh vhtxhqfh ri ixwxuh
uhdo lqwhuhvw udwhv dqg ri ixwxuh ehiruh0wd{ oderxu lqfrph duh lqghshqghqw ri
88
zkdw zh duh grlqj wr wkh frpsrvlwlrq riU wkh sxeolf ghew/ exw wklv zloo lqghhg
U"
r
eh wkh fdvh,1 Wklv phdqv wkdw | e3 | oE_r d+u Er n Er
CEro_r ' s
Er
Li vrphwklqj kdsshqv wr fkdqjh wkh uhdo ydoxh ri wkh rxwvwdqglqj vwrfn ri
qrq0prqhwdu| oldelolwlhv/ wkh vhtxhqfh ri ixwxuh oxps0vxp wd{hv zloo dgmxvw
hqgrjhqrxvo| +ehfdxvh wkh jryhuqphqw kdv wr vdwlvi| lwv lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw
frqvwudlqw,/ vr dv wr ohdyh wrwdo zhdowk Zkloh qrw qhfhvvdulo| @nM xqfkdqjhg1
Jryhuqphqw ghew lv sulydwh zhdowk/ wkdw lv/ lw lv d sulydwh dvvhw/ exw lw lv
fdqfhoohg rxw/ ehkdylrxudoo|/ e| wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri ixwxuh oxps0
vxp wd{hv1 1 Zkloh qrw qhfhvvdulo| frqvwdqw ryhu wlph/ s lv lqghshqghqw
ri wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh jryhuqphqw*v qdqfldo oldelolwlhv1 Wkh LV dqg OP
prgho zlwk wkh qhz frqvxpswlrq ixqfwlrq dqg prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq fdq
qrz eh zulwwhq dv
SEoc
n s n
Eoc t n C ' t
dqg
' Ec tc
n s
Wkxv
n K kdyh ehhq ehkdylrxudoo| uhpryhg iurp wkh prgho1 Krzhyhu/
wkh jryhuqphqw erqgv duh vwloo wkhuh lq dq dffrxqwlqj vhqvh/ vr rshq pdunhw
rshudwlrqv duh srvvleoh/ zlwk
_ n _ n _ ' f
Wkh lqlwldo prqh| vwrfn lv wkhuhiruh qrw suhghwhuplqhg1 Zh qrz kdyh d
v|vwhp wkdw lv zhoo0srvhg/ dqg doorzv xv/ xqghu d qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh shj/
c exw
wr vroyh iru wkh uhdo htxloleulxp ydoxhv ri wkh hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv
qrw iru hlwkhu wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn ru wkh sulfh ohyho1
Wkxv sulfh ohyho lqghwhuplqdf| xqghu d qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh shj zloo suh0
ydlo li dqg rqo| li wkh prgho h{klelwv ghew qhxwudolw| ru Ulfdugldq htxlydohqfh1
89
Fkdswhu 6
Wkh DG0DV Prgho lq wkh Rshq
Hfrqrp|
614
8:
8;
Fkdswhu 7
Wkh Vkruw0Uxq Djjuhjdwh
Vxsso| Fxuyh
Wkhuh duh dssur{lpdwho| :;6 zd|v ri ghulylqj dq djjuhjdwh vxsso| fxuyh wkdw
lv xszdug0vorslqj lq c t vsdfh1 Wklv fkdswhu suhvhqwv d vpdoo vhohfwlrq1
714
Zh uhwxuq wr wkh rog oderxu ghpdqg dqg vxsso| htxdwlrqv/ djdlq zlwk wkh
fdslwdo vwrfn dqg glvwruwlrqdu| wd{hv rplwwhg1 Dv lq wkh vlpsoh fodvvlfdo
prgho/ erwk wkh ghpdqg iru dqg wkh vxsso| ri oderxu ghshqg rq wkh uhdo
zdjh rqo|1 Wkh glhuhqfh zlwk wkh suhylrxv yhuvlrqv lv wkdw wkh prqh| zdjh
lv dvvxphg wr eh vwlfn| ru uljlg lq d grzqzdug gluhfwlrq/ dw ohdvw lq wkh vkruw
7
uxq1 Lq hdfk shulrg wkhuh lv dq lqkhulwhg ru suhghwhuplqhg prqh| zdjh/ `
Dv ehiruh/ oderxu ghpdqg dqg vxsso| duh jlyhq e|1 Wkh dfwxdo prqh| zdjh
lv ghqrwhg `c dv ehiruh1
`
' 8 Eu_
`
' Eur
Ohw ` W eh wkh htxloleulxp/ pdunhw0fohdulqj ru ixoo0hpsor|phqw prqh|
zdjh/ wkdw lv wkh prqh| zdjh wkdw zrxog fohdu wkh oderxu pdunhw/ dqg uW
wkh pdunhw0fohdulqj ohyho ri hpsor|phqw/ ghqhg e|
8 EuW ' EuW
8<
93
7
`
W
94
7 `W
Us `
|e?
` ' `W
@?_
u ' uW
Wklv surgxfhv dq Djjuhjdwh Vxsso| Fxuyh wkdw lv xszdug0vorslqj iru
W Ewkdw lv/ zkhq dw wkh suhghwhuplqhg prqh| zdjh/ u_ ur Zkhq
W c wkh prqh| zdjh ehfrphv h{leoh/ wkh oderxu pdunhw fohduv/ dqg wkh
djjuhjdwh vxsso| fxuyh ehfrphv yhuwlfdo dw t ' t W
Zkhq wkh DV fxuyh lv xszdug0vorslqj/ lw fdq eh zulwwhq dv
7
' @Etc `
7 8
`
:f
@t '
E8
:f
@`7 '
8
Wkh djjuhjdwh vxsso| fxuyh wkhuhiruh vkliw xs zkhq wkh suhghwhuplqhg
7 c lqfuhdvhv1
prqh| zdjh/ `
D vlpsoh glvhtxloleulxp prqh| zdjh dgmxvwphqw htxdwlrq pdnhv wkh
jurzwk udwh ri prqh| zdjhv/ {`
c dq lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh ghjuhh ri
`
h{fhvv ghpdqg lq wkh oderxu pdunhw=
{`
' )Eu_ ur
`
) : f
)Ef ' f
+714,
95
wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh zhuh dvvxphg wr kdyh zhdnhu dqg zhdnhu hhfwv rq
wkh udwh ri jurzwk ri prqh| zdjhv1
Zlwk d prqh| zdjh dgmxvwphqw htxdwlrq olnh 714/ wkh prqh| zdjh zloo
eh idoolqj dv orqj dv wkh hfrqrp| lv rq wkh xszdug0vorslqj sduw ri wkh DV
fxuyh/ vlqfh dorqj wkh xszdug0vorslqj sduw ri wkh DV fxuyh/ u_ ur
715
`
`
u_ ' ur ' u
Wkh *ixoo lqirupdwlrq* uhdo zdjh/ W c hpsor|phqw/ uW c dqg rxwsxw/ t W c
ohyhov duh wkh ohyhov wkdw suhydlo zkhq ' 1 Wkxv
8 EuW ' ,EuW
W ' 8 EuW
96
t W ' 8 EuW
Lw iroorzv wkdw dfwxdo hpsor|phqw lq dq lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq ri wkh udwlr ri
wkh dfwxdo sulfh ohyho wr wkh h{shfwhg sulfh ohyho1 Zkhq wkh dfwxdo sulfh ohyho
lqfuhdvhv/ zlwk wkh h{shfwhg sulfh ohyho frqvwdqw/ wkh dfwxdo uhdo zdjh idoov/
exw wkh zrunhu*v h{shfwhg uhdo zdjh ulvhv1 Erwk oderxu ghpdqg dqg oderxu
vxsso| lqfuhdvh +qrwh wkdw/ dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh dfwxdo uhdo zdjh/ oderxu
vxsso| fdq eh zulwwhq dv
,Eur
`
'
,Eu
zh jhw
u ' uW n #E
# : f
#E ' f
Rxwsxw vxsso| dovr lv lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh udwlr ri wkh dfwxdo sulfh wr wkh
h{shfwhg sulfh
t ' t W n E
: f
E ' f
+715,
97
R ' R n kEt t W
Uhzulwh wklv dv
R R3 ' R R3 n kEt t W
ru
Z'Z
n kEt t W
+716,
zkhuh Z
lv wkh h{shfwhg udwh ri lq dwlrq1
Lq d gldjudp zlwk Z rq wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv dqg t rq wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv/ zh
fdq gudz dq xszdug0vorslqj vkruw0uxq sulfh Skloolsv fxuyh iru hyhu| h{shfwhg
udwh ri lq dwlrq1 D kljkhu h{shfwhg udwh ri lq dwlrq vkliwv wklv vkruw0uxq
sulfh Skloolsv fxuyh xs yhuwlfdoo| e| wkh vdph pdjqlwxgh dv wkh lqfuhdvh lq
wkh h{shfwhg udwh ri lq dwlrq1
Li h{shfwhg lq dwlrq lv jlyhq e| wkh vlpsoh phfkdqlfdo uxoh
Z
' Z 3
zh jhw wkh vlpsoh dffhohudwlrqlvw sulfh Skloolsv fxuyh=
{Z ' kEt t W
716
+717,
Wkh iroorzlqj wkhru| ri wkh vkruw0uxq djjuhjdwh vxsso| fxuyh lv gxh wr Oxfdv
^54` ^B`1 Wkhuh duh orwv + ri xqfrruglqdwhg olwwoh surgxfhuv/ zrunlqj dqg
surgxflqj rq lvrodwhg lvodqgv1 Wkhuh lv qr whohskrqh1 Lq shulrg |c hdfk
surgxfhu/ c edvhv klv surgxfwlrq ghflvlrq rq wkh *orfdo* sulfh lq klv lvodqg/
R| c uhodwlyh wr wkh dyhudjh sulfh lq doo wkh lvodqgv/ R| +wkhuh uhdoo| vkrxog
eh dq lqwhuwhpsrudo sulfh khuh/ exw qhyhu plqg,1 Wkh orfdo sulfh lv sulydwh
nqrzohgjh1 Surgxfhuv duh udqgrpo| uhdoorfdwhg ryhu wkh lvodqgv hdfk shulrg1
Hdfk surgxfhu kdv wr pdnh dq lqiruphg jxhvv derxw wkh jhqhudo ru dyhudjh
sulfh ohyho1 Wkh udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrq ri R lq shulrg | lv ghqrwhg .| R|
98
'
R|
R|
+|W
nq
S
'
+|
j 2
j 2 n j 2
c lv jlyhq e|=
ER| .|3 R|
j 2 n j 2
j 2
E+| +|W
99
717
{`
`
* {
+718,
+719,
Z ' Z u
+71:,
' >
> : f
Zlwk > frqvwdqw/ lw iroorzv wkdw
'
`
u
9:
+71;,
+71<,
+7143,
Wkh qdwxudo udwh zloo eh orzhu wkh kljkhu kc wkdw lv wkh pruh uhvsrqvlyh zdjh
lq dwlrq lv wr h{fhvv ghpdqg lq wkh oderxu pdunhw/ dqg wkh vpdoohu u c
wkh jds ehwzhhq wkh wdujhw jurzwk udwh ri uhdo zdjhv dqg wkh *zduudqwhg*
jurzwk udwh ri uhdo zdjhv1
Xvlqj 7143 zh fdq uhzulwh 71< dv
Z'Z
7 kE
+7144,
+7145,
Z'Z
7 7 u
+7146,
dqg
9;
+7147,
Frpsduhg zlwk 71</ htxdwlrq 7147 lpsolhv wkdw sulfh lq dwlrq zloo eh orzhu
zkhq fxuuhqw oderxu surgxfwlylw| jurzwk lv ehorz0wuhqg + u 7 u c zklfk lv
olnho| wr eh wkh fdvh gxulqj wkh grzqwxuq ri wkh exvlqhvv f|foh/ dqg zkhq
fxuuhqw hduqlqjv jurzwk lv deryh qrupdo EZ : Z
7
Lw qrz ehfrphv xvhixo wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq wkh vkruw0uxq qdwxudo udwh
ri xqhpsor|phqw ru vkruw0uxq QDLUX/ c dqg wkh orqj0uxq qdwxudo udwh ri
xqhpsor|phqw ru orqj0uxq QDLUX/ 7 1
Wkh vkruw0uxq qdwxudo udwh lv wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh wkdw suhydlov zkhq
dfwxdo lq dwlrq htxdov fruh lq dwlrq/ Z ' Z
7 Wklv lpsolhv
7 Z o
' k3 E u n d u 7 u n Z
+7148,
7 Z c
Qrwh wkdw/ ehfdxvh ri wkh olnho| f|folfdo ehkdylrxu ri u 7 u dqg Z
wkh vkruw0uxq qdwxudo udwh lv olnho| wr eh d f|folfdo yduldeoh1
Wkh orqj0uxq qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw lv wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh
wkdw suhydlov zkhq dfwxdo lq dwlrq htxdov fruh lq dwlrq dqg qrupdo xqlw
yduldeoh frvw lq dwlrq htxdov dfwxdo xqlw yduldeoh frvw lq dwlrq= Z ' Z
7 dqg
u ' 7 u dqg Z ' Z
7
7 ' k3 E 7 u
+7149,
Zh fdq wkhuhiruh vwloo zulwh wkh forvhg hfrqrp| sulfh Skloolsv fxuyh dv lq
71441 Lw lv suredeo| pruh lqirupdwlyh +iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri vhsdudwlqj
rxw orqj0uxq vwuxfwxudo idfwruv dqg vkruw0uxq f|folfdo idfwruv, wr zulwh lw lq
whupv ri ghyldwlrqv iurp wkh orqj0uxq qdwxudo udwh dv iroorzv
7 Z o
Z'Z
7 kE 7 n d u 7 u n Z
718
+714:,
Wkh zdjh Skloolsv fxuyh kdv wkh vdph irup dv iru wkh forvhg hfrqrp|1 Qrwh/
krzhyhu/ wkdw wkh fruh lq dwlrq whup lq wkh rshq hfrqrp| zdjh Skloolsv
fxuyh/ lv olnho| wr lqyroyh wkh +fruh, lq dwlrq udwh ri d frvw 0ri0olylqj lqgh{/
wkdw lv vrphwklqj olnh wkh frqvxphu sulfh lqgh{ +FSL, ru wkh uhwdlo sulfh lqgh{
9<
+USL, udwkhu wkdq wkh +fruh, lq dwlrq udwh ri wkh JGS gh dwru ru wkh +jurvv,
sulfh ri grphvwlfdoo| surgxfhg jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv1 Wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq ri
wkh frqvxphu sulfh lqgh{ lv ghqrwhg Z
E| { c zkhuh lv wkh frvw0ri olylqj
lqgh{/ wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq ri wkh jurvv sulfh ri grphvwlf rxwsxw +qrw wkh
JGS gh dwru, lv ghqrwhg Z {
c wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq ri zruog sulfhv +lq
W
iruhljq fxuuhqf|, lv ghqrwhg Z W {
c zkhuh W lv wkh iruhljq sulfh ohyho/
W
dqg wkh ghsuhfldwlrq udwh ri wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh lv ghqrwhg 0 {.
.
zkhuh . lv wkh qrplqdo vsrw h{fkdqjh udwh +wkh qxpehu ri xqlwv ri krph
fxuuhqf| shu xqlw ri iruhljq fxuuhqf|,1
E|
Z E| ' E| kE| n Z
k:f
+714;,
Z
E| ' Z n E EZ W n 0
f
+714<,
` u n . W
'>
'
+7153,
Qrwh wkh glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq tc zklfk ghqrwhv krph frxqwu| JGS/ dqg
' / zklfk lv krph frxqwu| jurvv rxwsxw +lqfoxglqj wkh ydoxh ri lpsruwhg
lqwhuphgldwh dqg udz pdwhuldov lpsruwv,1 Htxdwlrq 7153 lpsolhv wkdw
Z ' bEZ u n E bEZW n 0
bf
+7154,
Wkh vkduh ri oderxu frvw lq wrwdo yduldeoh frvw lv ghqrwhg bc dqg wkh
c zkloh
jurzwk udwh ri dyhudjh oderxu surgxfwlylw| qrz lv jlyhq e| u {E'*u
'*u
wkh jurzwk udwh ri dyhudjh lpsruw surgxfwlylw| lv jlyhq e| {E'*
'*
Wklv lpsolhv wkh iroorzlqj Skloolsv fxuyh iru wkh frvw0ri0olylqj lqgh{=
n bE u k n E bEZ W n 0 Z
E b
Z
'Z
+7155,
:3
b
b
W
'
u
n
EZ n 0 Z
k
b
b
+7156,
Wkh qdwxudo udwh zloo djdlq eh orzhu wkh juhdwhu wkh ydoxh ri kc/wkh uh0
vsrqvlyhqhvv ri zdjh lq dwlrq wr xqhpsor|phqw/ wkh orzhu wkh wdujhw jurzwk
udwh ri uhdo zdjhv/ c dqg wkh kljkhu wkh jurzwk udwhv ri oderxu surgxfwly0
lw|/ u dqg lpsruw surgxfwlylw|/ Wkh qdwxudo udwh zloo dovr eh orzhu li
wkh frxqwu|*v whupv ri wudgh duh lpsurylqj +wkdw lv/ li lwv frpshwlwlyhqhvv
lv zruvhqlqj,1 Zkhq grphvwlf lq dwlrq h{fhhgv zruog lq dwlrq Z
: Z W n 0c
wkh zrunhu*v uhdo frqvxpswlrq zdjh +zklfk lv ghqhg lq whupv ri wkh frvw0
ri0olylqj lqgh{ c ulvhv uhodwlyh wr wkh uhdo surgxfw zdjh wkdw ghwhuplqhv
wkh ghpdqg iru oderxu e| upv/ zklfk lv ghqhg lq whupv ri wkh grphvwlf
surgxfhu sulfh lqgh{ Zrunhuv* uhdo zdjh dvsludwlrqv fdq eh vdwlvhg wr d
juhdwhu h{whqw wkurxjk uhodwlyho| fkhdshu lpsruw sulfhv udwkhu wkdq wkurxjk
kljkhu prqh| zdjhv1
Xvlqj wklv ghqlwlrq ri wkh qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw/ zh fdq zulwh
wkh rshq hfrqrp| sulfh Skloolsv fxuyh dv
Z
'Z
bkE
+7157,
+7158,
Z W n 70 7
Z ' bE7
Z 7 u n E bE7
bf
+7159,
dqg
Wklv lpsolhv wkh iroorzlqj rshq hfrqrp| Skloolsv fxuyh iru wkh frvw0ri0
olylqj lqgh{=
Z
'Z
n bE u k n E bEZ W n 0 Z
E b
W
nb d7
Z 7 u EZ u o n E b d7
Z n 70 7 EZ W n 0 o
+715:,
:4
Wkh qrupdo xqlw yduldeoh frvw sulflqj htxdwlrq/ 715:/ glhuv iurp wkh
dfwxdo xqlw yduldeoh frvw sulflqj htxdwlrq 7155/ e| kdylqj d kljkhu udwh ri
lq dwlrq zkhq qrupdo xqlw oderxu frvw lq dwlrq h{fhhgv fxuuhqw xqlw oderxu
frvw lq dwlrq/ Z
7 7u : Z u dqg2ru zkhq qrupdo xqlw lpsruw frvw
lq dwlrq h{fhhgv fxuuhqw xqlw lpsruw frvw lq dwlrq/ Z
7 W n70 7 : ZW n0
Wkh vkruw0uxq qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw lv djdlq wkh xqhpsor|phqw
udwh wkdw suhydlov zkhq fruh lq dwlrq htxdov dfwxdo lq dwlrq/ Z
' Z
Wklv
lpsolhv
3b
3b W
'
k k u b n b EZ n 0 Z
l
E3b
W
W
nk Z
7 7u EZ u n b d7
Z n 70 7 EZ n 0 o
+715;,
b
b
W
7 '
u
n
EZ n 0 Z
k
b
b
+715<,
Xvlqj wkh ghqlwlrq ri wkh vkruw0uxq qdwxudo udwh lq715; zh fdq vwloo zulwh
wkh Skloolsv fxuyh dv lq 71571 Lw lv djdlq pruh lqirupdwlyh/ iurp wkh srlqw
ri ylhz lv vhsdudwlqj rxw orqj0uxq vwuxfwxudo idfwruv dqg vkruw0uxq f|folfdo
idfwruv/ wr zulwh wkh Skloolsv fxuyh lq whupv ri ghyldwlrqv iurp wkh orqj0uxq
qdwxudo udwh/ dv iroorzv=
Z'Z
7 bkE 7
n db E7
Z 7 u EZ u n E b d7
Z W n 70 7 EZW n 0 oo
+7163,
Suhvhqwdwlrqdoo| hyhq pruh lqirupdwlyh zrxog eh d ghqlwlrq ri wkh qdw0
xudo udwh wkdw dovr frqwurov iru yduldwlrqv lq wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wkh yhu|
orqj0uxq qdwxudo udwh/ c lv wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh wkdw suhydlov zkhq dfwxdo
lq dwlrq htxdov fruh lq dwlrq dqg qrupdo xqlw yduldeoh frvw lq dwlrq htxdov
dfwxdo xqlw yduldeoh frvw lq dwlrq= Z
' Z
dqg u ' 7 u / Z
7 ' Z c Z
7W '
Z W c 70 ' 0 dqg 7 ' c dqg wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh lv frqvwdqw Z W n 0 ' Z/
Lw iroorzv wkdw
b
u
k
b
+7164,
:5
Z
'Z
bkE
n db E7
Z 7 u EZ u n E b d7
Z W n 70 7 EZ W n 0 oo
nE bEZ W n 0 Z
+7165,
719
+7166,
71914
Lq wklv vxevhfwlrq/ wkh qdwxudo udwh lv wuhdwhg dv h{rjhqrxv dqg/ iru vlpsolflw|/
frqvwdqw1 Qrwh wkdw d shupdqhqw uhgxfwlrq lq wkh dfwxdo udwh ri lq dwlrq kdv
ehhq dfklhyhg zkhq wkh fruh udwh ri lq dwlrq htxdov wkh dfwxdo udwh ri lq dwlrq
dw wkh qhz orzhu ohyho1 Zkhq wkdw kdsshqv/ wkh dfwxdo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw
fdq eh vhw htxdo wr wkh qdwxudo udwh djdlq dqg wkh orzhu dfwxdo dqg fruh udwhv
ri lq dwlrq zloo shuvlvw iruhyhu1
H{rjhqrxv Fruh Lq dwlrq
Z
7'Z
7
+7167,
:6
j
'4
EE| '
k
|'
|'
+7168,
Zlwk h{rjhqrxv fruh lq dwlrq dqg dq h{rjhqrxv qdwxudo udwh/ wkh vdfulfh
udwlr lv lqqlwh1
Vwdwlf Fruh Lq dwlrq
Z
7 E| ' ZE|
+7169,
+716:,
Lq wklv fdvh
+716;,
:7
+716<,
Xvlqj 7166 wr holplqdwh wkh dfwxdo lq dwlrq udwh iurp 716</ zh jhw
Z
7 E| Z
7 E| ' k#EE|
Uhphpehu wkdw d shupdqhqw I fkdqjh lq wkh dfwxdo udwh ri lq dwlrq lv
dfklhyhg rqfh wkhuh kdv ehhq d fkdqjh ri I lq wkh fruh udwh ri lq dwlrq1
DI fkdqjh lq wkh fruh udwh ri lq dwlrq uhtxluhv d rqh0shulrg lqfuhdvh lq
Wkhuhiruh
xqhpsor|phqw ri k#
j'
k#
+7173,
"
[
b ZE|
+7174,
'f
Zh zdqw wkh dxjphqwhg Skloolsv fxuyh wr kdyh wkh qdwxudo udwh surshuw|/
wkdw lv/
\E
"
[
b '
'f
Wklv phdqv wkdw li wkh dfwxdo udwh ri lq dwlrq lv frqvwdqw iruhyhu/ wkh fruh
udwh ri lq dwlrq zloo htxdo wkh dfwxdo udwh ri lq dwlrq1 Wkh orqj0uxq Skloolsv
fxuyh lv yhuwlfdo1
Iurp 7166 dqg 7174 lw iroorzv wkdw
ZE| ' \EuZE| kEE|
+7175,
:8
dqg wkdw
Z
7 E| n ' \Eu7
ZE| \EukEE|
+7176,
S"
'f EE
Z WW Z W
S"
[
'
E n b
k 'f
"
+7177,
'f E
+7178,
+7179,
Iurp 7179 lw lv fohdu wkdw/ vlqfh ZE| n zloo ghshqg rq E| n dqg
rq shulrg | n h{shfwdwlrqv ri ZE| n 2c wkh iroorzlqj jxhvv vroxwlrq vhhpv
uhdvrqdeoh
ZE| ' f ZE| n f EE| n
"
[
'
.| EE| n
+717:,
:9
+717;,
f ' E E Bf 3 k
+717<,
' E B f c : f
+7183,
B
f n
'f
B
B
+7184d,
Wklv lpsolhv
B
f ' 3B
f '
+7185,
Zkhq B ' c lw lv fohdu iurp htxdwlrq 717; +dqg iurp hfrqrplf frpprq
vhqvh/ vhh ehorz,/ wkdw rqo| wkh vroxwlrq f ' lv dssursuldwh1
Zkhq wkhuh duh wzr glvwlqfw urrwv/ rqh ri zklfk lv zhdno| vwdeoh +prgxoxv
ohvv wkdq ru htxdo wr , dqg rqh ri zklfk lv xqvwdeoh +prgxoxv juhdwhu wkdq
,/ zh zrxog qrupdoo| fkrrvh wkh vwdeoh rqh1 H{fhsw zkhq B ' fc wkh udwh
ri lq dwlrq/ Zc lv d suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeoh +lwv lqlwldo ydoxh lv lqkhulwhg
iurp wkh sdvw dqg fdqqrw uhvsrqg wr qhzv derxw ixwxuh hyhqwv,1 Zh zrxog
qrupdoo| olnh wkh krprjhqhrxv sduw ri htxdwlrq 717:/ wkdw lv/ ZE| ' f ZE|
c wr eh qrq0h{sorvlyh1
Qrwh wkdw/ zkhq B ' 2 c wkdw lv/ zkhq ixwxuh h{shfwhg lq dwlrq kdv wkh
vdph zhljkw dv sdvw lq dwlrq/ f ' Wkh krprjhqhrxv
sduw ri htxdwlrq
717: kdv d xqlw urrw1 f ' 2k dqg ' 2 2kc
4
Xvh lv pdgh ri wkh *Odz ri Lwhudwhg Surmhfwlrqv*/ Hw Hw.m +{, @ Hw +{,> m 3> +wkh
hduolhu h{shfwdwlrq ri d odwhu h{shfwdwlrq lv wkh hduolhu h{shfwdwlrq,1 Wklv lv dq lpphgldwh
dssolfdwlrq ri d ixqgdphqwdo surshuw| ri frqglwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv/ surylghg wkdw wkh lqiru0
pdwlrq vhw frqglwlrqlqj h{shfwdwlrqv dw dq hduolhu gdwh lv qrw ulfkhu wkdq wkh lqirupdwlrq
vhw dw d odwhu gdwh1
::
Zkhq B ' fc wkdw lv/ zkhq rqo| h{shfwhg ixwxuh lq dwlrq dhfwv fxuuhqw
lq dwlrq dqg sdvw lq dwlrq kdv qr zhljkw dw doo/ htxdwlrq 7185 kdv wzr urrwv/
f ' f dqg f ' Vlqfh lw pdnhv qr hfrqrplf vhqvh wr kdyh sdvw lq dwlrq
hqwhulqj wkh vroxwlrq ri d sxuho| iruzdug0orrnlqj vwuxfwxudo lq dwlrq surfhvv/
zh fkrrvh wkh vroxwlrq f ' f Lq wklv fdvh/ ' k c f
Zkhq B ' c wkdw lv/ zkhq rqo| sdvw lq dwlrq dhfwv fxuuhqw lq dwlrq
dqg h{shfwhg ixwxuh lq dwlrq kdv qr zhljkw dw doo/ htxdwlrq 7185 kdv rqo|
rqh hfrqrplfdoo| phdqlqjixo urrw/ f ' Lq wklv fdvh/ f ' k c dqg
' f : f
B
Iru wkh uvw vroxwlrq ri 7184d/ f ' 3B
c f lqfuhdvhv prqrwrqlfdoo| zlwk
B ryhu wkh lqwhuydo f B Krzhyhu/ iru B : 2 c f : Vlqfh dv B $ c
B
$ 4c wkh vhfrqg vroxwlrq/ f ' lv fohduo| wkh rqo| uhdvrqdeoh rqh
3B
zkhq B ' Wkh sureohp lv/ iru zkdw ydoxh ri B gr zh vzlwfk iurp wkh uvw
B
vroxwlrq/ f ' 3B
/ zklfk lv fohduo| wkh rqo| vhqvleoh rqh zkhq B ' fc wr wkh
vhfrqg vroxwlrq/ f ' q Rq hfrqrplf jurxqgv L zrxog dujxh wkdw zh vkrxog
B
xvh f ' 3B
iru B 2 dqg f ' iru B 2 L dgrsw wklv fkrlfh lq zkdw
iroorzv1
Lw lv fohdu wkdw/ iru doo ydoxhv ri Bc f B c wkh vdfulfh udwlr lv qlwh=
lw rqo| wdnhv d whpsrudu| lqfuhdvh lq xqhpsor|phqw wr dfklhyh d shupdqhqw
uhgxfwlrq lq lq dwlrq1 Lw lv dovr fohdu wkdw wkh vdfulfh udwlr ghshqgv rqo| rq
k dqg B
Zkhq B 2 +zklfk lpsolhv f ' c lw lv dozd|v srvvleoh/ vlqfh wkhuh rqo|
lv rqh odj lq wkh lq dwlrq surfhvv/ dqg wkh frh!flhqw rq odjjhg lq dwlrq lq
717: lv xqlw|/ wr dfklhyh d shupdqhqwo| orzhu udwh ri lq dwlrq e| lqfuhdvlqj
xqhpsor|phqw lq mxvw rqh shulrg1 Frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh xqhpsor|phqw
lq udlvhg rqo| lq shulrg |/ wkdw lv/ E| n ' c Iurp 717: lw wkhq
iroorzv wkdw
j ' f3 '
B
k
+7186,
c
2
k[
k
E B .| EE| n
ZE| ' ZE| EE|
B
B '
"
+7187,
:;
k
k
EE| E B EE| n
B
B
k
EE| n
B
k
k
' ZE| EE| E2 B EE| n
B
B
k
E B E7
B
B
kE B
2B
B
iru B
kE B
k
:<
k
E B EE| n
B
k
EE| n
B
k
' ZE| E2 B EE| n
B
Lq wklv fdvh wkh vdfulfh udwlr lv
ZE| n ' ZE|
j'
2B
B
B
iru B
kE2 B
kE B
k
;3
Z
7 E| ' .|3 ZE|
+7188,
71915
;4
+7189,
Wklv phdqv wkdw wkh fxuuhqw ydoxh ri wkh qdwxudo udwh ghshqgv rq wkh
hqwluh sdvw klvwru| ri dfwxdo udwhv=
A 3
[
E q E| n E qA E| A
E| ' q
'f
Wkhuh duh vhyhudo wkhrulhv wkdw vxssruw wkh ylhz wkdw wkh qdwxudo udwh
pd| eh klvwru|0ghshqghqw1 Wkh uvw lv wkh kxpdq fdslwdo ghfxpxodwlrq h{0
sodqdwlrq ri k|vwhuhvlv lq wkh qdwxudo udwh1 Wklv krogv wkdw wkh h{shulhqfh ri
dfwxdo xqhpsor|phqw kxuwv erwk wkh dswlwxgh iru zrun +orvv ri vnloov, dqg wkh
dwwlwxgh wrzdugv zrun +ghprwlydwlrq/ glvfrxudjhphqw,1 Wkh kxpdq fdslwdo/
wkdw lv/ wkh h!flhqf| ri wkh xqhpsor|hg frpsrqhqw ri wkh oderxu irufh wkhuh0
iruh ghfolqhv zkhq xqhpsor|phqw lv kljk1 Wklv pd| eh hvshfldoo| uhohydqw
iru wkh orqj0whup xqhpsor|hg dqg iru |rxqj oderxu irufh hqwudqwv zkr plvv
rxw rq oderxu pdunhw h{shulhqfh gxulqj wkh irupdwlyh |hduv ri wkhlu olyhv1
Zkloh oderxu vxsso| lq sk|vlfdo xqlwv pd| uhpdlq wkh vdph/ oderxu vxsso|
lq xqlwv ri h!flhqf| ru txdolw| idoov1 Wkh hpsor|hg ehfrph d surjuhvvlyho|
vpdoohu lq xhqfh rq wkh zdjh edujdlq1
Wkh vhfrqg h{sodqdwlrq lv lqvlghu0rxwvlghu wkhru|/ gxh wr Juhjru| ^49/
Err`/ hoderudwhg e| Vqrzhu dqg Olqgehfn ^53` dqg srsxodulvhg e| Eodqfkdug
dqg Vxpphuv ^7`1 Wklv ylhzv wkh oderxu irufh dv vhjphqwhg ehwzhhq lqvlghuv
dqg rxwvlghuv1 Wkh lqvlghuv duh wkh hpsor|hg zrunhuv/ zkr qhjrwldwh zlwk wkh
hpsor|huv zlwkrxw wdnlqj dffrxqw ri wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkhlu zdjh edujdlq
iru wkh hpsor|phqw survshfwv ri wkh rxwvlghuv1 Wkh rxwvlghuv duh dvvxphg
wr eh frpsohwho| glvhqiudqfklvhg lq wkh zdjh dqg hpsor|phqw qhjrwldwlrqv
dprqj wkh lqvlghuv1 Hhfwlyh eduulhuv wr hqwu| +erwk e| zrunhuv dqg e|
qhz upv hpsor|lqj rqo| rxwvlghuv, duh uhtxluhg iru wklv wr eh d urexvw
htxloleulxp1 Zkhq zrunhuv ehfrph xqhpsor|hg/ wkh| fhdvh wr eh lqvlghuv
dqg ehfrph rxwvlghuv1 Wkh| qr orqjhu h{huflvh dq| uhvwudlqlqj lq xhqfh rq
wkh zdjh dqg hpsor|phqw qhjrwldwlrqv ri wkh uhpdlqlqj lqvlghuv1 Djdlq/ wkh
xqhpsor|phqw fhdvh wr uhsuhvhqw dq hhfwlyh vxsso| ri oderxu1
Dq h{sodqdwlrq lq wkh vdph vslulw dv wkh kxpdq fdslwdo wkhru| ri k|vwhuh0
vlv lq wkh qdwxudo udwh lv wkh sk|vlfdo fdslwdo vwrfn wkhru| ri k|vwhuhvlv1 Lw qrwhv
wkdw prvw hslvrghv ri glvlq dwlrq dqg kljk xqhpsor|phqw duh uhfhvvlrqv zlwk
orz ohyhov ri fdslwdo irupdwlrq1 Li oderxu dqg fdslwdo duh frpsohphqwv lq wkh
;5
surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq/ wklv zloo uhgxfh wkh ghpdqg iru oderxu1 Wkh ixoo hpsor|0
phqw ohyho ri hpsor|phqw wkhuhiruh idoov ru wkh qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw
ulvhv1
Iru looxvwudwlyh sxusrvhv/ zh vkdoo frpelqh 4416: zlwk d vlpsoh dxjphqwhg
Skloolsv fxuyh/ 7166/ dqg vwdwlf fruh lq dwlrq/ Z
7 E| ' ZE| Wklv |lhogv
ZE| ' k EE| E| n ZE|
+718:,
+718;,
Qrwh wkdw wkh fkdqjh lq wkh lq dwlrq udwh lq shulrg | ghshqgv rqo| rq wkh
fkdqjh lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh dqg qrw rq wkh ohyho ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw
udwh1 Htxdwlrq 718; lpsolhv wkdw/ zlwk k|vwhuhvlv lq wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh/
wkh vdfulfh udwlr lv lqqlwh1 Frqvlghu wkh vlpsohvw vshfldo fdvh zkhuh q ' /
dqg wkhuhiruh/ wkh qdwxudo udwh wklv shulrg htxdov odvw shulrg*v dfwxdo udwh=
E| ' E| Lq rughu wr uhgxfh wkh lq dwlrq udwh lq shulrg | e| Ic
wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh lq shulrg | kdv wr ulvh e| k Li wkh qdwxudo udwh zhuh
frqvwdqw/ wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh frxog eh uhgxfhg edfn wr lwv ruljlqdo ohyho
lq shulrg | n c dqg lq dwlrq lq shulrgv | n dqg eh|rqg zrxog uhpdlq dw wkh
qhz I orzhu ohyho/ vlqfh fruh lq dwlrq lq shulrg | n htxdov wkh orzhu dfwxdo
udwh ri lq dwlrq lq shulrg | Krzhyhu/ ehfdxvh ri wkh k|vwhuhvlv lq wkh qdwxudo
udwh/ E| n ' E| dqg lq rughu wr vwrs wkh lq dwlrq udwh iurp ulvlqj edfn
wr lwv ruljlqdo ohyho/ wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh zloo kdyh wr vwd| shupdqhqwo|
dw lwv qhz kljkhu ohyho1 Zkloh wkh orqj0uxq Skloolsv fxuyh lv vwloo yhuwlfdo/ lw
fdq eh yhuwlfdo dw dq| ohyho ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh/ ghshqglqj rq wkh sdvw
klvwru| ri wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh1 Wkh dfwxdo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw gudjv
wkh qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw zlwk lw dv wlph sdvvhv1 Wkh uhvwudlqlqj
hhfw rq lq dwlrq iurp d kljkhu xqhpsor|phqw udwh wkhuhiruh zhduv r ryhu
wlph dqg xowlpdwho| glvdsshduv dowrjhwkhu +lq rxu vlpsoh h{dpsoh lw lv jrqh
diwhu rqh shulrg,1 K|vwhuhvlv lq wkh qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw wkhuhiruh
kdv lpsruwdqw lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh frvw0ehqhw dqdo|vlv ri dqwl0lq dwlrqdu|
srolf|=
j'4
Wklv dssurdfk wr k|vwhuhvlv lq wkh qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw lv yhu|
vlplodu lq vslulw wr prghov ri zdjh dqg sulfh lq dwlrq wkdw pdnh wkh udwh ri
5
;6
71:
71:14
Phqx Frvwv
71:15
Prqrsrolvwlf Frpshwlwlrq
71:16
;7
Fkdswhu 8
Pruh rq wkh Qdwxudo Udwh ri
Xqhpsor|phqw
814
+814,
+815,
+816d,
Wkh vl}h ri wkh wrwdo srsxodwlrq ydulhv ehfdxvh ri eluwkv/ ghdwkv dqg qhw
lppljudwlrq1 Zkloh lw lv vdih wr dvvxph/ hyhq lq wkhvh qhr0Ylfwruldq wlphv/
wkdw doo eluwkv uhsuhvhqw dgglwlrqv wr wkh qrq0zrunlqj srsxodwlrq/ ghdwkv dqg
qhw lppljudwlrq fdq dhfw .c L dqg U
;8
BhLtt Lt
Lqwr C
Lqwr .
Lqwr L
Lqwr U
Lqwr
Iurp
C
. n .
L n L
U n U
n
Iurp
.
(.
Z .. .
ZL . .
Z U. .
Z . .
Iurp
L
(L
Z .L L
ZL L L
ZUL L
Z L L
Iurp Iurp
U
U
(
(
Z .U U Z .
Z LU U Z L
Z UU U Z U
Z U U Z
;:
+817,
Iurp wkh jurvv rzv zh fdq ghulyh wkh qhw fkdqjhv lq wkh qxpehu ri
rffxsdqwv iru hdfk ri wkh irxu oderxu pdunhw vwdwhv dv iroorzv=
Qhw rzv
. . (. n . n Z .L L ZL . . n Z.U U Z U. . n Z . Z . .
+818,
L L (L n L n Z L . . Z .L L n ZL U U Z UL L n Z L Z L L
+819,
U U (U n U n Z U. . Z.U U n Z UL L Z L U U n Z U Z U U +81:,
( n n Z . . Z . n Z L L ZL n Z U U ZU
+81;,
Lw iroorzv wkdw
. n L n U n n . n L n U n E(. n (L n (U n (
+81<,
Dovr wkh iudfwlrq ri wkh rffxsdqwv ri hdfk oderxu pdunhw vwdwh wkdw uhpdlq
lq wkdw vwdwh lv jlyhq e|=
Z.. Z L . ZU. Z .
+8143,
Z L L ' Z .L Z UL Z L
+8144,
ZUU ' Z .U Z L U Z U
+8145,
Z ' Z . ZL Z
+8146,
$
?
u
K. _. n 6. E Z.. n e n Z .L n Z .U n Z.
u
+8147,
K _ n 6 E Z L L
?
_|
KU _U n 6U E Z UU
$
?
u
n n Z L. e n Z L U n Z L
u
$
?
u
n n Z UL n Z U. e n Z U
u
#
K _ n 6 E Z
u
n
u
;<
+8148,
+8149,
?
n Z . e n Z L n Z U
+814:,
Ohw D eh wkh iudfwlrq ri wkh wrwdo srsxodwlrq wkdw lv qrw ri zrunlqj djh/
wkdw lv/ D
Vlqfh u . n L n U c lw iroorzv wkdw
u
D
D
'
E '
u
u
u
D D
.
.
.
L
L
L
U
U
U
?
EK n 6 _ e n EK n 6 _ n EK n 6 _ n EK n 6 _
+814;,
Vr idu/ wkh rqo| vwuxfwxuh zh kdyh lpsrvhg rq wkh wudqvlwlrq suredelolwlhv
lv wkdw doo eluwkv rffxu lq wkh qrq0zrunlqj srsxodwlrq/ wkdw lv/
K. ' KL ' KU ' f
+814<,
Fkdswhu 9
Vrph Xvhixo G|qdplf DG0DV
Prghov
914
+914,
6 R ' &+ b
+915,
+916,
o Z
+917,
Z R
+918,
<4
<5
>6
+919,
6R
+91:,
Wklv h{dpsoh lv gxh wr Wrelq dqg looxvwudwhv wkh frq lfw ehwzhhq wkh
vwdelolvlqj hhfw ri d kljkhu sulfh ohyho lq uhgxflqj djjuhjdwh ghpdqg dqg wkh
ghvwdelolvlqj hhfw ri d kljkhu h{shfwhg udwh ri lq dwlrq lq errvwlqj djjuhjdwh
ghpdqg1 Qrwh wkdw erwk wkh sulfh ohyho/ Rc dqg wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq/ Zc duh
dvvxphg wr eh suhghwhuplqhg yduldeohv1
91414
Pdwkqrwh
Ohw
%E|
' @E|%E| n 5E|
+91;,
% ' @3 57
Wkh vroxwlrq iru 91; lv
U|
|f
@E_
]
n
| U
|
|f
@E_
5Er_r
+91<,
<6
@E|3|f
]
n
|f
e@E|3r 5Er_r
+9143,
]
8 E| '
qE|
kE|
s E|c r_r
+9144,
wkhq
_8 E|
' q E|s E|c qE| k E|s E|c kE| n
_|
qE|
kE|
Y
s E|c r_r
Y|
Wkh dxwkrulwlhv xvh wkh vkruw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ c dv wkh prqhwdu|
lqvwuxphqw1 Wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn lv hqgrjhqrxv1 Wkh prgho fdq eh
zulwwhq lq whupv ri d vlqjoh vwdwh yduldeoh/ Z G
Z '
k
kE n wb
Z
k7
+
w&
w&
+9145,
+9146,
+
o ' 3 wb 3 E w&7
+9147,
, ' &7
+ b
+9148,
+
Z ' > ' E n 3 wb n 3 E w&7
+9149,
<7
Wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh ghshqgv rq wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ehfdxvh d
kljkhu qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh uhgxfhv wkh ghpdqg iru uhdo prqh| edodqfhv
dqg uhdo prqh| edodqfhv dhfw wkh ghpdqg iru jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv wkurxjk
wkh uhdo edodqfh hhfw1
Vlqfh wkh uhdo edodqfh hhfw/ wc lv olnho| wr eh vpdoo/ htxdwlrq 9145 lv xqvwd0
k
eoh/ dv 3w&
: f Wklv dprxqwv wr wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh vwdelolvlqj Sljrx
ru uhdo edodqfh hhfw lv grplqdwhg e| wkh ghvwdelolvlqj h{shfwhg lq dwlrq
ru Ilvkhu hhfw1 Wklv lqvwdelolw| zdv dqdo|vhg dw ohqjwk e| Zlfnvhoo= zlwk d
jlyhq qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ d kljkhu udwh ri lq dwlrq uhgxfhv wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw
udwh1 Wklv udlvhv wkh ghpdqg iru jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv dqg ixuwkhu udlvhv lq d0
wlrq1 Wr vwdelolvh wkh prgho/ wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh kdv wr uhvsrqg wr wkh
udwh ri lq dwlrq1 D vlpsoh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ihhgedfn uxoh srsxodulvhg e|
Wd|oru/ fdq xqghu fhuwdlq frqglwlrqv gr wkh mre1 Wkh Wd|oru uxoh lv jlyhq e|=
' 7 n qZ n #+
+914:,
Vlqfh qrwklqj ghshqgv rq lw/ zh vlpsoli| wkh Wd|oru uxoh wr ghshqg rqo|
rq wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq=
' 7 n qZ
+914;,
kE q wkbq
w&
Z
kE n wb
k7
+
w&
+914<,
Lw lv fohdu iurp 914< wkdw/ surylgh wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh uhvsrqgv
vx!flhqwo| yljrurxvo| wr kljkhu lq dwlrq/ wkh prgho ehfrphv vwdeoh1 Wkh
phfkdqlfv ri wklv vwdelolvlqj ihhgedfn uxoh duh yhu| wudqvsduhqw zkhq wkhuh
lv qr uhdo edodqfh hhfw= w ' f Lq wklv fdvh 914< ehfrphv
Z ' kE qZ k k7
+
+9153,
Wkh prgho zlwk wkh Wd|oru uxoh lv vwdeoh li dqg rqo| li d kljkhu udwh ri
lq dwlrq ohdgv wr d pruh wkdq rqh0iru0rqh lqfuhdvh lq wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw
udwh/ vr dv wr udlvh wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ gdpshq djjuhjdwhg ghpdqg dqg
uhgxfh lq dwlrq1 Zkhq q : c kE q f
91415
<8
Pdwkqrwh
D xvhixo uhihuhqfh lv Exlwhu ^B`1 Frqvlghu wkh iroorzlqj v|vwhp ri 2 uvw
rughu olqhdu glhuhqwldo htxdwlrqv zlwk frqvwdqw frh!flhqwv=
% E|
% 2 E|
'
'
% E|
%2 E|
n 5E|
@ @2
@2 @22
'
K
K2
+9154,
m 4Um ' f
zkhuh U lv wkh lghqwlw| pdwul{/
U'
f
f
<9
4c2
Ohw - '
t
2
'
@ n @22 E@ n @22 eE@ @22 @2 @2
2
4 f
f 42
n 2 eEk3q|
eEknq|
' ek| eq| n 2 e3q|
' ek| E EULt q| n t? q| n 2 EULt q| t? q|
' ek| EE n 2 ULt q| n E 2 t? q|
' ek| E ULt q| n 2 t? q|
zkhuh dqg 2 duh qhz duelwudu| frqvwdqwv ghqhg e|
' n 2
dqg
2 ' E 2
Zh fdq zulwh wkh h{suhvvlrq lq 9155 voljkwo| glhuhqwo| dv iroorzv=
+9155,
<:
Ohw
' ULt "
dqg
2 ' t? "
wkhq
ek| E ULt q| n 2 t? q| ' ek| E ULt " ULt q| n t? " t? q|
' ek| ULtEq| "
Wkh h{suhvvlrq ULtEq| " lv d shulrglf ixqfwlrq zlwk ydoxhv ehwzhhq
dqg n Wkh shulrg ri wkh f|foh +wkh gxudwlrq ri d frpsohwh f|foh, lv
2Z
dqg wkh dpsolwxgh lv Wkh iuhtxhqf| ri wkh f|foh lv wkh uhflsurfdo
q
ri wkh shulrg/ q*2Z
Zh ghqrwh wkh wudfh ri wkh pdwul{ e| A -E dqg wkh ghwhuplqdqw ri
e| {E
A -E @ n @22
{E @ @22 @2 @2
Lw iroorzv wkdw
A -E ' 4 n 42
dqg
{E ' 4 42
Zh dvvxph wkdw fdq eh gldjrqdolvhg e| d vlplodulw| wudqvirupdwlrq/ wkdw
lv wkdw
<;
' T -T 3
+9156,
T lv d pdwul{ +lq rxu h{dpsoh 2 2, zkrvh froxpqv duh wkh +uljkw, hljhq0
yhfwruv ri c
T '
2
'
2
2 22
Wklv zloo eh wuxh li dqg rqo| li T lv ri ixoo udqn1 Lq rxu fdvh wklv phdqv
wkdw wkhuh duh 2 olqhduo| lqghshqghqw hljhqyhfwruv1 Iru wklv wr krog lw
lv vx!flhqw wkdw doo hljhqydoxhv eh glvwlqfw1
Wkh hljhqyhfwruv duh wkh vroxwlrqv wr4
' 4
' c 2
4 3@
@2
ru
'
@2
4 3@22
dqg
2 '
42 3@
@2
ru
4
Qrwh wkdw wkh hljhqyhfwruv duh xqltxh rqo| xswr d qrq0}hur pxowlsolfdwlyh frqvwdqw1
+'
dqg
`'
<<
@2
42 3@22
+
+2
' T 3 %
2
2 22
+9157,
' T 3
+9158,
+
+ 2
'
4 f
f 42
+
+2
n ` 5
ru
+ ' 4 + n #
+9159,
+ 2 ' 42 +2 n # 2
+915:,
zkhuh
# ' E K n 2 K2 5
dqg
433
4 E|3|f
42 E|3|f
]
n
|f
]
n
|f
e4 E|3r # Er_r
+915;,
+915<,
Wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv iru + dqg +2 duh irxqg iurp htxdwlrqv 9157 dqg 9158/
dqg wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv iru % dqg %2 G
+ E|f
+2 E|f
'
2
2 22
%7 E|f
%72 E|f
+9163,
% E|
%2 E|
'
2
2 22
+ E|
+2 E|
+9164,
434
3
%2 ' @3
2 K 5 @2 @ %
+9165,
3
%2 ' @3
22 K2 5 @22 @2 %
+9166,
Iru frqvwdqw ydoxhv ri wkh h{rjhqrxv yduldeohv/ wkh vwhdg| vwdwh ydoxhv ri %
dqg %2 c % dqg %2 duh irxqg e| vhwwlqj % ' % 2 ' f Wklv lpsolhv
%
%2
' 3 5
+9167,
435
3
3
%2 ' 22
2 % n 22
+2
+9168,
3
3
%2 ' 2
% n E22
2 +2
3
3
' 2 % n 22 +2
+9169,
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
4 @
@2
3
% n 22
+2
+916:,
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
%2 '
@2
4 @22
3
% n 22
+2
+916;,
3
3
% '
2 %2 n
+
+916<,
436
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
3
3
% ' 2 22
%2 n E 2 22
2 +
3
3
' 2 22
%2 n
+2
+9173,
42 @22
@2
3
%2 n
+
+9174,
3
%2 n 22
+2
+9175,
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
% '
@2
42 @
+9176,
+9177d,
Zh dvvxph wkdw rqh ri wkh wzr fkdudfwhulvwlf urrwv/ 4 lv vwdeoh dqg wkdw
wkh rwkhu/ 42 lv xqvwdeoh/ wkdw lv/
4 f
42 : f
437
"
"
3
22
2 % E|
3
22
"
+9178,
+9179,
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
%2 E| '
3
2
% E|
3
22
]
|
"
+917:,
4 @
@2
% E|
3
22
]
|
"
+917;,
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
%2 E| '
@2
4 @22
3 3
% E| 22
42 # 2
+917<,
Lq wkh fdvh zkhuh # 2 lv frqvwdqw/ wkh odvw irxu htxdwlrqv fdq eh uhzulwwhq
dv
3
3 3
%2 E| ' 22
2 % E| 22
42 # 2
+9183,
438
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
3
3 3
%2 E| ' 2
% E| 22
42 # 2
+9184,
3
Lq wkh 2%2 fdvh wklv fdq eh zulwwhq dvE@ @2 22
2
%2 E| '
4 @
@2
3 3
% E| 22
42 # 2
+9185,
ru/ htxlydohqwo|/
%2 E| '
@2
4 @22
3
% E| 22
43
2 #2
+9186,
% E| ' E@
3
@2 22
2 % E|
3
@2 22
3
' 4 % E| @2 22
"
]| "
|
Lw iroorzv wkdw
439
Z
'
k
n&b3
&
kEwnb3
n&b3
%
Wkh ghwhuplqdqw ri wkh pdwul{
{Ec lv jlyhq e|
{E '
Z
n
k
n&b3
f k
f
kEwnb3
n&b3
>
+7
+9187,
&
c ghqrwhg
kEw n b3
:f
n &b3
Wkh wudfh ri wkh vdph pdwul{ +wkh vxp ri lwv gldjrqdo hohphqwv, ghqrwhg
A -E lv jlyhq e|
A -E '
k
:f
n &b3
+9188,
+9189,
43:
Qrwh wkdw zh fdqqrw vwdelolvh wkh prgho zlwk wklv ihhgedfn uxoh1 A -E
frqwlqxhv wr eh srvlwlyh1 Dv orqj dv wkh {E lv srvlwlyh +zklfk zloo eh wkh
fdvh dv orqj dv q c erwk hljhqydoxhv ri zloo frqwlqxh wr eh srvlwlyh1
Zh fdq pdnh {E qhjdwlyh/ e| fkrrvlqj q : Wklv phdqv wkdw/ zkhq wkh
lq dwlrq udwh lqfuhdvhv/ wkh jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn kdv wr
lqfuhdvh pruh wkdq rqh0iru0rqh1 Wkxv/ zkhq wkh lq dwlrq udwh lqfuhdvhv/ wkh
jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn lv lqfuhdvhg e| vr pxfk wkdw wkh uhdo
prqh| vwrfn vwduwv ulvlqj dw d idvwhu udwh1 Wkdw kdugo| vrxqgv vwdelolvlqj/
dqg lw lvq*w/ ehfdxvh zlwk {E fc zh kdyh rqh qhjdwlyh dqg rqh srvlwlyh
hljhqydoxh/ dqg wkh v|vwhp lv vwloo xqvwdeoh1 Zh fdq vwdelolvh wkh v|vwhp e|
pdnlqj > d ixqfwlrq ri + Hyhq vlpsohu lv d uxoh wkdw pdnhv > d ixqfwlrq ri
Frqvlghu h1j1 wkh iroorzlqj uxoh
> ' > n l
+918:,
Z
'
k
n&b3
kEwnb3
n&b3
&
Z
n
f k
f
>
+7
+918;,
43;
915
91514
n
n
E Z
c t n C ' t
Ec tc
n
'
t_ t n
A
A ' t
' 7 '
Z
'f
n EC n A
+918<,
Ec tc n '
n C n t
+9193,
8 '
M '
3S
ESo n
o E3
f
(
dE St_ n t o
E3
n t S
Tf
8 '
3S
n ESo n
o
Tf
(
443
M '
8C '
f
(
MC '
t
:f
(
8 '
M '
t St_
f
(
t St_ t
f
(
+9194,
' T E( Cc
zlwk
T '
TC '
E n M 8
x
E n MC 8C
: f +suredeo|,
x
T '
+9195,
t M n 8
f Esuredeo|,
x
x ' M 8 f
445
+9196,
+9197,
L ' (3 Et M n 8
( ' n M 8
+9198,
Qrwh wkdw ( zloo eh srvlwlyh li/ fhwhulv sdulexv/ d odujhu vwrfn ri lqwhuhvw0
ehdulqj ghew lqfuhdvhv wkh ghflw1 Wklv vhhpv olnho|1 D odujhu vwrfn ri erqgv
gluhfwo| lqfuhdvhv wkh lqwhuhvw eloo1 Lw dovr udlvhv wkh lqwhuhvw udwh +wkh LV fxuyh
vkliwv wr wkh uljkw dqg wkh OP fxuyh vkliwv wr wkh ohiw,1 Wklv *lqwhuhvw eloo*
hhfw fdq eh uhyhuvhg rqo| li d odujhu vwrfn ri ghew uhgxfhv wkh jryhuqphqw*v
sulpdu| +qrq0lqwhuhvw, ghflw1 Wklv uhtxluhv wkdw wd{ uhyhqxhv jr xs zkhq wkh
vwrfn ri erqgv lqfuhdvhv1 Iru d jlyhq ydoxh ri / wklv uhtxluhv d vx!flhqwo|
E St_ n
+ St_
t
'
_t
_
Ohw
t ' 8 Em( c Cc
' aEm( c Cc
6
_m
9 _ :
9
:
7 _C 8
_
+9199,
447
8C ' (3 : f
aC ' (3 t : f
' (3 Ea n 8
C ' (3 EaC n 8C
' (3 Ea n 8 n t
449
( ' E am 8m
+919:,
Vxevwlwxwlqj wkh LV0OP vroxwlrqv iru t dqg lqwr wkh jryhuqphqw exgjhw
lghqwlw| |lhogv
C n Em aEm( c Cc 8 Em( c Cc
m
Wdnlqj d olqhdu dssur{lpdwlrq dw wkh vwhdg| vwdwh |lhogv
n E a 8 E
EE am 8m Em m
m
Et n a n 8 E
nE aC 8C EC C
Wkh v|vwhp zloo eh orfdoo| vwdeoh li dqg rqo| li E am 8m f Wklv
zloo eh wkh fdvh rqo| li d odujhu vwrfn ri jryhuqphqw qdqfldo oldelolwlhv kdv
d vwurqj srvlwlyh hhfw rq rxwsxw +wkh uljkwzdug vkliw ri wkh LV fxuyh gxh
wr wkh zhdowk hhfw rq frqvxpswlrq lv yhu| vwurqj/ udlvlqj rxwsxw dqg wd{
uhyhqxhv e| hqrxjk wr uhgxfh wkh ghflw/ ghvslwh wkh olnho| lqfuhdvh lq wkh
jryhuqphqw*v lqwhuhvw eloo dvvrfldwhg zlwk dq lqfuhdvh lq m1
Wkh olnho| uhvxow lv wkdw/ zlwk dq h{rjhqrxv qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ wkh
ghflw0ghew g|qdplfv zloo eh xqvwdeoh1
H{huflvh 91514 Ilqg d ihhgedfn uxoh iru wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh wkdw zloo
vwdelolvh wkh prgho1 H{sodlq krz wklv uxoh dfklhyhv lwv remhfwlyh1
916
Zh dgg dq dffhohudwlrqlvw Skloolsv fxuyh wr wkh LV0OP prgho dqg wkh jryhuq0
phqw exgjhw lghqwlw|1 Zh dvvxph udwlrqdo lq dwlrq h{shfwdwlrqv/ vr Z
' Z
n
SEt E n c Zc
n
E Zc t n C ' t
Ec tc
n
'
t
Z ' kE 7
t
k : f
n EC n t
Z'
Z'
+919;,
44;
zkhuh }7
Zh ghqh
C
t7
6
7
t7
7K
t7
dqg
t
+7 7
t
Wklv shuplwv xv wr uhzulwh wkh prgho dv
91614
S E 7
+ n 7Kc Zc 6
7 n 7K n
E Zc +7 n }7 ' +7
+919<,
Ec +7c 6
7 n 7K ' 6
7
+91:3,
Z ' kE7
+
+91:4,
_E6
7 n 7K
}7 n 7K +7 EZ n ?E6
7 n 7K
_|
+91:5,
Vwhdg| Vwdwh
Lq vwhdg| vwdwh/ wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq lv frqvwdqw dqg wkh udwlr ri uhdo prqh| wr
7
wuhqg JGS dqg ri uhdo erqgv wr wuhqg JGS duh frqvwdqw +Z ' __|67 ' __|K ' f
Wklv lpsolhv
+7 '
+91:6,
S n 7Kc Zc 6
7 n 7K n
E Zc n }7 '
+91:7,
Ec c 6
7 n 7K ' 6
7
+91:8,
EZ n ?E6
7 n 7K }7 n 7K
+91:9,
Qrwh wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw exgjhw qhhg qrw eh edodqfhg lq wkh orqj uxq1
Vwhdg| vwdwh uhtxluhv wkdw wkh udwlr ri prqh| wr qrplqdo JGS dqg wkh udwlr
ri erqgv wr qrplqdo JGS eh frqvwdqw1 Iru lqvwdqfh/ zlwk d ydoxh ri 6
7 n 7K ri
fS +wkh Pddvwulfkw fhlolqj iru wkh udwlr ri jhqhudo jryhuqphqw ghew wr dqqxdo
JGS,/ dq lq dwlrq udwh ri 31358 shu dqqxp dqg d uhdo jurzwk udwh ri 31358
shu dqqxp/ wkh jryhuqphqw ghflw dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS zrxog eh 31363 ru
wkuhh shufhqw ri JGS1
91615
453
_6
7
' }7 n 7K ME6c
7 7Kc Zc }c Z ? 8 E6c
7 7Kc Zc }c EZ n ?6
7
_|
Wkh olqhdu dssur{lpdwlrq ri wklv g|qdplf v|vwhp dw wkh vwhdg| vwdwh lv
Z
_6
7
_|
k8}7
k87K
o ? n 7KM7K 87K n 7KM}7 8}7
ZZ
h
7 6
7 6
56
7K h
7K
k8
9
:
}7 8
7KM 8 +7 7 }7 h
h
k867
k8Z
7KEMZ 8Z 6
7
7 KM67 867 EZ n ?
+91:;,
91616
Qrz dvvxph wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv lvvxh ru uhwluh qrplqdo prqh| lq wkh h{dfw
dprxqw uhtxluhg wr nhhs 6c
7 wkh udwlr ri prqh| wr wuhqg JGS ru wkh uhflsurfdo
ri wkh wuhqg lqfrph yhorflw| ri flufxodwlrq ri prqh|/ frqvwdqw/ wkdw lv/ wkh
jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn/ >
' Z n ? Wkh qrplqdo
lqwhuhvw udwh dqg sxeolf lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew lvvxdqfh qrz duh hqgrjhqrxv1
Wkh g|qdplf v|vwhp qrz lv=
Z ' k 8 E6c Kc Zc }c
_7K
' }7 n K ME6c Kc Zc }c Z ? 8 E6c 7Kc Zc }c EZ n ?6
_|
Wkh olqhdu dssur{lpdwlrq ri wklv g|qdplf v|vwhp dw wkh vwhdg| vwdwh lv
&
%
ZZ
k8Z
k87K
7
_7K
7K h
7K
KEMZ 8Z 6 o ? n 7KM7K 87K
_|
6
5
h
66
k8}7
k8
k867
7 }7 h
n
}7 8
EZ n ? n 7KM67 867 n 7KM}7 8}7 7KM 8 +7
h
Z
Erwk vwdwh yduldeohv djdlq duh suhghwhuplqhg1 Vwdelolw| uhtxluhv wzr fkdu0
dfwhulvwlf urrwv zlwk qhjdwlyh uhdo sduwv/ wkdw lv/
k8Z o ? n 7KM7K 87K 7KEMZ 8Z 6 k87K : f
+91:<d,
dqg
k8Z n 7KM67 n o ? n 7KM7K 87K f
+91;3,
455
91617
Ilqdoo|/ frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh dxwkrulwlhv shj wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/
' 7= : f Iroorzlqj wkh hduolhu dqdo|vlv ri wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh shj lq
wkh {hg sulfh ohyho prgho/ wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh sxeolf ghew ehwzhhq
dqg qrz ehfrphv d vkruw0uxq hqgrjhqrxv yduldeoh1 Zh vroyh wkh LV dqg
7 n
OP fxuyhv iru +7 dqg 6
7 t7 dv ixqfwlrqv ri m
/ Zc }7 dqg
t7
Wklv |lhogv
7 Z( c }7c
+7 ' 8 Emc
7 c Z( c }7c
6
7 ' aEm
Lw iroorzv iurp 9199 wkdw
8 m ' (3 ES St_ U f
zh dvvxph/ dv ehiruh/ wkdw
8m : f
a m ' (3 dE E St_
t n + S o : f
6
Qrwh wkdw ehfdxvh ri wkh olqhdu krprjhqhlw| ri rxu ghflvlrq uxohv lq wkh vfdoh yduldeohv/
| @ 4=
8 ' (3 So n
o n 7KSt_ St_ U f
Zh dvvxph
8 f
a ' (3 E E St_
t n ESo n
o n 7KSt_ U f
Zh dvvxph
a f
8}7 ' (3 : f
a}7 ' (3 t : f
457
Z
7
_m
_|
n
k8Z
k8m7
7
aZ 8Z m E am7 8m7 EZ n ?
k8
k8}7
k8
7K a 8 a}7 8}7 a 8 +7
%
ZZ
h
7 m
7
m
&
6
=
7 }7 h
}7 8
h
Fkdswhu :
D Vlpsoh Iruzdug0Orrnlqj
Prqhwdu| Prgho
:14
D xvhixo uhihuhqfh iru wkh frqwlqxrxv wlph yhuvlrq ri wklv prgho lv Vdujhqw
dqg Zdoodfh ^57`
Zh frqvlghu d vlpsolhg yhuvlrq ri wkh h{leoh sulfh ohyho yhuvlrq ri wkh
DG0DV prgho1
6E| RE| ' &+E| bE|
b:f
+:14,
+:15,
+:16,
+:17,
.| RE| n n
6E|
nb
nb
+:18,
+:19,
+:1:,
Zh jhw wkh iroorzlqj h{suhvvlrq iru wkh fxuuhqw sulfh ohyho dv d ixqfwlrq
ri wkh fxuuhqw prqh| vwrfn/ fxuuhqw h{shfwdwlrqv ri ixwxuh prqh| vwrfnv dqg
d qxlvdqfh whup/ E| G
"
b
[
RE| '
.| 6E| n n E|
6E| n
nb
n b ' n b
E| ' *4
<"
b
nb
.| RE| n
nb
E|
b
+:1;,
fdq eh sduw ri d udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv vroxwlrq iru wkh sulfh ohyho1 Qrwh
wkdw/ vlqfh b : fc wkh *exeeoh whup*/ E|/ zloo h{sorgh lq h{shfwdwlrqv xqohvv/
dw wkh lqlwldo gdwh/ |f c E|f ' f Lq zkdw iroorzv zh zloo pdnh wklv dvvxps0
wlrq/ zklfk uxohv rxw udwlrqdo vshfxodwlyh exeeohv1 Wklv lv wkh *whuplqdo*
45:
erxqgdu| frqglwlrq wkdw doorzv xv wr qg d xqltxh vroxwlrq iru rxu glhu0
hqfh htxdwlrq1 Wkh uhvxowlqj *exeeoh0iuhh* vroxwlrq lv fdoohg d ixqgdphqwdo
vroxwlrq1
"
b
[
RE| '
6E| n
.| 6E| n
nb
n b ' n b
:1414
+:1<,
Wkh wrwdo hhfw ri dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh fxuuhqw prqh| vwrfn/ 6E|c rq wkh
sulfh ohyho/ lv wkh vxp ri wkh gluhfw hhfw +kroglqj frqvwdqw h{shfwdwlrqv ri
ixwxuh yduldeohv, dqg dqqrxqfhphqw hhfwv +hhfwv zrunlqj wkurxjk fkdqjhv
lq h{shfwdwlrqv derxw ixwxuh yduldeohv,=
_RE|
'
_6E|
nb
"
Y.| 6E| n
b
[
n
n b ' n b
Y6E|
Frqvlghu h1j1 wkh iroorzlqj uvw0rughu dxwruhjuhvvlyh surfhvv iru wkh +orj0
dulwkp ri, wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn=
6E| n ' q6E| n 0E| n
+:143,
+:144,
[
"
bq
bq
c wkh sulfh ohyho lv wkhuhiruh jlyhq e|
Surylghg nb
RE| '
6E|
n bE q
+:145,
Qrwh wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh htxloleulxp sulfh ohyho dqg wkh
fxuuhqw prqh| vwrfn ghshqgv erwk rq wkh sdudphwhu ri wkh sulydwh ghflvlrq
uxoh +bc wkh vhpl0hodvwlflw| ri wkh prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq zlwk uhvshfw wr
wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh, dqg wkh sdudphwhu ri wkh prqhwdu| srolf| uxoh/
q Wklv lv dq h{dpsoh ri wkh Oxfdv fulwltxh +vhh h1j1 Oxfdv ^56`,1 Zkhq
wkh srolf| uxoh fkdqjhv/ wkh *uhgxfhg irup* uhodwlrqvkls lq wkh gdwd ehwzhhq
sulydwh fkrlfh yduldeohv dqg srolf| lqvwuxphqwv fdq fkdqjh ehfdxvh fxuuhqw
fkdqjhv lq srolf| lqvwuxphqwv pd| dhfw sulydwh h{shfwdwlrqv derxw ixwxuh
ydoxhv ri wkh srolf| lqvwuxphqw dqg ehfdxvh zlwk iruzdug0orrnlqj sulydwh
ehkdylrxu/ fxuuhqw sulydwh ghflvlrqv pd| ghshqg rq fxuuhqw h{shfwdwlrqv ri
ixwxuh srolf| lqvwuxphqw ydoxhv1
Wkh wrwdo hhfw ri d fkdqjh lq wkh fxuuhqw prqh| vwrfn rq wkh sulfh ohyho
lv jlyhq e|
_RE|
_6E|
nbE3q
YRE|
' Y6E|
S t.| 6E|n(D
YRE|
Y.| 6E|n
n "
' Y.| 6E|n
Y6E|
' nb
S b
n "
q
' nb
'
45<
+e, q ' f
Wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn lv zklwh qrlvh1 Doo vkrfnv wr
wkh prqh| vwrfn duh shufhlyhg dv whpsrudu|= .| 0E| n ' f iru doo
Lq wklv fdvh/
RE| '
6E|
nb
f _6E|
nb
H{huflvh :1414 Fdq q eh vx!flhqwo| qhjdwlyh wr fdxvh wkh fxuuhqw sulfh ohyho
wr idoo zkhq wkh fxuuhqw prqh| vwrfn lqfuhdvhvB H{sodlq |rxu dqvzhu1
Iru d frqvwdqw ydoxh ri wkh prqh| vwrfn/ vd| 6 ' 6c
7 dqg gursslqj
wkh h{shfwdwlrq rshudwru/ zh fdq gudz wkh Judsk ri wkh sulflqj ixqfwlrq lq
RE| n RE| vsdfh/ dv lq Iljxuh :14
Iljxuh :14 khuh
Iru d frqvwdqw ydoxh ri wkh h{rjhqrxv prqh| vwrfn/ wkh rqo| ydoxh ri R
wkdw grhv qrw sodfh wkh hfrqrp| rq dq h{sorvlyh wudmhfwru| lv wkh lqwhuvhfwlrq
ri wkh sulfh judsk dqg wkh eDf olqh1
:15
Wkh frqwlqxrxv wlph yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho dqdo|vhg lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq lv
jlyhq ehorz
6E| RE| ' &+E| b3 E|
b:f
+:146,
+:147,
+:148,
Lq vwhdg| vwdwh/
Lq vwhdg| vwdwh/ d kljkhu jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn lv dvvrfldwhg
zlwk d kljkhu udwh ri lq dwlrq/ d kljkhu qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg d orzhu vwrfn
ri uhdo prqh| edodqfhv1
Pdwkqrwh
Frqvlghu wkh iroorzlqj uvw0rughu olqhdu glhuhqwldo htxdwlrq 1 % lv d qrq0
suhghwhuplqhg ru iruzdug0orrnlqj vwdwh yduldeoh/ 5 lv dq h{rjhqrxv ru iruflqj
yduldeoh1
%E|
' @E|% n KE|5E|
Wkh iruzdug0orrnlqj vroxwlrq lv
"
e3
Ur
@E_
5Er_r n &e
U|
|J
464
@E_
"
"
e3@Er3| 5Er_r
Wkh hhfwv ri fkdqjhv lq wkh jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn duh
frqyhqlhqwo| dqdo|vhg lq d gldjudp zlwk rq wkh krul}rqwdo d{lv dqg rq
wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv1 Lq prghov zlwk iruzdug0orrnlqj udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv/ rqh
kdv wr eh yhu| suhflvh derxw wkh h{dfw vshflfdwlrq ri wkh vkrfn klwwlqj wkh
v|vwhp1
Wkh uvw lvvxh wr eh uhvroyhg lv krz lw lv orjlfdoo| srvvleoh wr dqdo|vh
vkrfnv/ wkdw lv/ xqh{shfwhg hyhqwv/ lq d *shuihfw iruhvljkw* prgho +d udwlr0
qdo h{shfwdwlrqv prgho zlwkrxw h{solflw xqfhuwdlqw|,1 Wkh uhvroxwlrq ri wklv
sdudgr{ lqyroyhv wzr vwhsv
+4, Wkh djhqw iruplqj wkh h{shfwdwlrqv vroyhv fruuhfwo| iru wkh prgho0
frqvlvwhqw h{shfwdwlrqv ri wkh hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv/ frqglwlrqdo rq klv h{0
shfwdwlrqv ri wkh h{rjhqrxv yduldeohv1
+5, Wkh h{shfwdwlrqv ri h{rjhqrxv yduldeohv duh khog zlwk frpsohwh vxe0
mhfwlyh fhuwdlqw|1 Lq Ed|hvldq whupv/ li wkh rswlpdo iruhfdvw lv wkh phdq ri klv
srvwhulru glvwulexwlrq +qrw wr eh frqixvhg wkh glvwulexwlrq ri klv srvwhulru,/
doo suredelolw| lv frqfhqwudwhg rq d vlqjoh *pdvv srlqw*1 Wkhvh vxemhfwlyho|
khog h{shfwdwlrqv ri h{rjhqrxv yduldeohv fdq/ krzhyhu/ eh zurqj1 Zkhq wkh|
duh uhylvhg/ wkh| duh/ krzhyhu/ djdlq khog zlwk frpsohwh vxemhfwlyh fhuwdlqw|1
466
7 c | |f
.|E3 >E| ' >
f
.|f >E| ' >
7 c | |f
Iljxuh :15 khuh
Wkh wudqvlwlrq wr wkh qhz vwhdg| vwdwh lv lqvwdqwdqhrxv11 Wkh sulfh ohyho
idoov glvfuhwho| dw |f Zkhq wkh jurzwk udwh ri prqh| lv h{shfwhg wr eh frq0
vwdqw iruhyhu/ wkh v|vwhp lv dozd|v lq vwhdg| vwdwh1 Wkhuhiruh/ iurp :148 lw
iroorzv wkdw/ ehiruh |f
RE| ' 6E| n b3 >
7
Iurp |f rq/
7
RE| ' 6E| n b3 >
+LL, Wkh xqh{shfwhg +fuhgleoh, dqqrxqfhphqw dw | ' |f ri d ixwxuh/ shu0
pdqhqw uhgxfwlrq lq wkh jurzwk udwh ri prqh| wr > >
7 c dw | : |f c wkdw
lv/
.|E3 >E| ' >
7 c | |f
f
.|f >E| ' >
7 c |f | |
.|f >E| ' >
7 c | |
Iljxuh :16 khuh
+LLL, Wkh xqh{shfwhg +fuhgleoh, dqqrxqfhphqw dw | ' |f ri d ixwxuh whp0
srudu| uhgxfwlrq lq wkh jurzwk udwh ri prqh|/ vwduwlqj dw | : |f dqg uhyhuvhg
dw |2 : | c wkdw lv/
.|E3 >E| ' >
7 c | |f
f
.|f >E| ' >
7 c |f | |
.|f >E| ' >
7 c | | |2
.|f >E| ' >
7 c | |2
Iljxuh :17 khuh
Qrwh wkdw/ ehwzhhq |f dqg | c R lv idoolqj dw dq lqfuhdvlqj udwh/ vlqfh
R ' b dqg lv ulvlqj dw dq lqfuhdvlqj udwh1
:16
Xvhixo uhihuhqfhv iru wklv Vhfwlrq duh Vdujhqw dqg Zdoodfh ^58` dqg Exlwhu
^43`1
Wkh ghpdqg iru prqh| lv jlyhq e|
' kf k
t
kf : f( k f( f
+:149,
'onZ
Wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv h{rjhqrxv dqg frqvwdqw
o ' o7
Uhdo JGS jurzv dw wkh h{rjhqrxv udwh ?/ wkdw lv/
t *t ' ?
Xqwlo ixuwkhu qrwlfh/ zh dvvxph wkdw jryhuqphqw ghew lv lqgh{0olqnhg1 q
lv wkh vwrfn ri uhdo jryhuqphqw ghew1 Wkh jryhuqphqw exgjhw lghqwlw| lv=
q
q
n }no
t
t
t
+:14:,
t
Wkh ruljlqdo Vdujhqw dqg Zdoodfh prgho lv dq ryhuodsslqj jhqhudwlrqv +ROJ, prgho1
Wkh srsxodwlrq lv glylghg lqwr wzr fodvvhv1 Wkh ulfk krog uhdo fdslwdo dqg jryhuqphqw
lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew dv vwruhv ri ydoxh/ dv orqj dv wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ l @ u . >
lv srvlwlyh1 Wkh srru fdq rqo| krog prqh|1 Wkh ghpdqg iru prqh| wkhuhiruh ghshqgv rq
wkh +h{shfwhg, udwh ri lq dwlrq udwkhu wkdq rq wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh1 Wkh vshflfdwlrq
dgrswhg khuh grhv qrw uhvxow lq txdolwdwlyho| glhuhqw ehkdylrxu1
K
468
q
t
:1614
+:14;,
Hqgrjhqrxv Eruurzlqj
Xqghu wklv uhjlph wkh dxwkrulwlhv { wkh jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh|
vwrfn/ >
Zlwk wkh jryhuqphqw sulpdu| ghflw +dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS,/ Bc
h{rjhqrxvo| jlyhq/
B }
wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri eruurzlqj duh hqgrjhqrxvo|
ghwhuplqhg1
Qrwlqj wkdw
6
E> Z ?6
+:14<,
+:153,
+:154,
2
6
' k2 6 n k3
6
k2 ' k3
Ekf k Eo ? n >
+:155d,
k3
]
|
"
e3
Ur
|
k2 E_
_r n & *4 e3
r<"
Ur
|
k2 E_
_r
+:156,
k3
"
e3
Ur
|
k2 E_
_r
"
Ur
|
k2 E_
3
_r
+:157,
+:158,
+:159,
46:
:1615
Zh qrz frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh dxwkrulwlhv lvvxh ru uhwluh lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj
ghew lq vxfk dv zd| dv wr nhhs wkh lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew0JGS udwlr frqvwdqw/
wkdw lv
q ' ?q
ru
K ' 7K
Prqhwdu| lvvxdqfh dqg wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh duh wkhuhiruh hqgrjh0
qrxv1
Xqghu wklv uxoh/
6
B n Eo ?7K EZ n ?6
ru/ xvlqj wkh prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq wr holplqdwh Zc
6
B n Eo ?7K
kf
o n ? 6 n 62
k
k
Wkh wzr vwhdg| vwdwhv ri wklv prgho duh wkh urrwv ri wkh deryh txdgudwlf=
t
2
7
6'
kf k Eo ? dkf k Eo ?o ek dB n Eo ?Ko
2
Wkhuh zloo eh wzr vwhdg| vwdwhv li B n Eo ?7Kc wkh *lq dwlrq dqg uhdo
jurzwk0fruuhfwhg ghflw* +dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS, lv qrw wrr odujh= dkf k Eo
?o2 ek dB n Eo ?7Ko : f Wkh orz 6c kljk lq dwlrq/ vwhdg| vwdwh lv orfdoo|
kf
C kf
o?
2 k
v
4
2
kf
e
o ? dB n Eo ?7K n ?Ek o kf oD
k
k
+:15:,
Wkh orz0lq dwlrq vwhdg| vwdwh +zklfk lv wkh xqvwdeoh rqh, djdlq kdv wkh
surshuw| wkdw d kljkhu ydoxh ri B n Eo ?7K lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d kljkhu udwh
ri lq dwlrq1
Vdujhqw dqg Zdoodfh wkhq frqgxfw wkh iroorzlqj wkrxjkw h{shulphqw1 Zh
vwduw dw | ' f Dvvxph wkdw wkh dxwkrulwlhv iroorz/ iru d shulrg ri gxudwlrq
46<
Ac d srolf| ri {lqj wkh qrplqdo jurzwk udwh ri prqh| dqg ghwhuplqlqj wkh
jurzwk udwh ri wkh sxeolf ghew uhvlgxdoo|1 Diwhu dq lqwhuydo ri gxudwlrq A wkh
dxwkrulwlhv vwdelolvh wkh ghew0JGS udwlr dw zkdwhyhu ohyho suhydlov dw wlph
| ' A Diwhu shulrg Ac prqhwdu| jurzwk wkhuhiruh ehfrphv hqgrjhqrxv1
Iurp htxdwlrq :159 zh nqrz wkdw
Eo3?A
n B dkf k Eo ?o> n k >2
]
f
eEo3?EA 3r _r
ru
KEA ' KEfeEo3?A n B dkf k Eo ?o> n k >2 g
g'
eEo3?A
e3Eo3?A : f li o : ?
o?
+:15;,
"
Ur
|
k3
Ekf 3k do3?n>Eo_
3
_r
vr
ZE| ' o n
k3
kf
]
"
Ur
|
k3
Ekf 3k do3?n>Eo_
3
_r
+:15<,
]
[ '
]
[2 '
"
e3
e3
Ur
|
Ur
|
k3
Ekf 3k do3?n>Eo_
+:163,
_r
k3
Ekf 3k do3?n>Eo_
_r
:1616
474
kf
s
k2f ek Eo ?mEA
2k
Zh rqo| frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh urrwv duh uhdo/ dqg dvvxph wkdw wkh
dxwkrulwlhv fkrrvh wkh orzhu ri wkh wzr lqwhuhvw udwh vroxwlrqv/ wkdw lv/
E| ' '
kf
s
k2f ek Eo ?mEA
iru | A
2k
Y
: f D kljkhu ydoxh ri wkh sxeolf ghew dw wlph
Lw wkhq iroorzv wkdw YmEA
A lpsolhv d kljkhu vxevhtxhqw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg lq dwlrq udwh1
q
n
t
t
n
t
t
mE| mEfe
]
n
zkhuh mEf ' KEf n kf k Ef lv ghwhuplqhg e| wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrq iru
KEf dqg wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dw | ' f
Vshflfdoo|/
Eo3?A
mEA mEfe
]
n
476
phdqv wkdw wkh hfrqrp| lv rq wkh vhqvleoh vlgh ri wkh vhljqlrudjh Odhu
fxuyh1 Zh dvvxph wklv wr eh wkh fdvh lq zkdw iroorzv1 Wkhuhiruh/ YmEA
f
Y7
D orzhu lqlwldo qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh +dqg wkh dvvrfldwhg orzhu lqlwldo udwh
ri lq dwlrq, ohdgv wr d odujhu vwrfn ri uhdo jryhuqphqw oldelolwlhv dw | ' A
Zlwkrxw d ixqgdphqwdo vfdo fruuhfwlrq/ wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ dqg wkh
udwh ri lq dwlrq/ zloo kdyh wr eh kljkhu iru | A
Qrwh wkdw zkloh wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq dqg wkh uhdo vwrfn ri prqh| edodqfhv
duh ghwhuplqdwh xqghu wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh uxoh/ wkh qrplqdo prqh|
vwrfn dqg wkh jhqhudo sulfh ohyho duh qrw/ zlwkrxw ixuwkhu dvvxpswlrqv1 Wkh
prqh| ghpdqg ixqfwlrq jlyhv xv
E|
' kf k E|
E|t E|
Zlwk E| h{rjhqrxv/ t E| ' t Efe?| dqg t Ef jlyhq/ wkh prgho rqo|
ghwhuplqhv E|
E|
Wkhuh duh wzr zd|v wr uhvroyh wklv1 Wkh uvw lv wr dujxh wkdw wkh lqlwldo
qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn/ Ef lv jlyhq e| klvwru|1 Wkh hqwluh fxuuhqw dqg
ixwxuh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn dqg sulfh ohyho sdwkv duh wkhq ghwhuplqdwh1 Wkh
rwkhu uhvroxwlrq lv wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw qrw rqo| shjv wkh
fxuuhqw dqg ixwxuh ydoxhv ri wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ exw dovr wkh ydoxh
ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn dw vrph srlqw lq wlph1 Wklv frxog hlwkhu eh
wkh lqlwldo qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn ru vrph ixwxuh ydoxh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh|
vwrfn1 Wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn dw doo rwkhu fxuuhqw dqg ixwxuh gdwhv uhpdlqv
hqgrjhqrxvo| ghwhuplqhg1
:1617
Qrz frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh jryhuqphqw*v lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew lv qrp0
lqdoo| ghqrplqdwhg1 Wkh vwrfn ri qrplqdo lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew dw wlph | lv
E|1 Wkh lqlwldo ydoxh ri wkh jryhuqphqw*v qrplqdo oldelolwlhv dv d vkduh ri
JGS/ lv
mEf
Ef
Ef n Ef
'
n kf k Ef
Eft Ef
Eft Ef
+:164,
Hyhq zlwk t Efc Ef dqg Ef jlyhq/ mEf lv qrw suhghwhuplqhg/ dv orqj
dv Ef 9' fc ehfdxvh wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho/ Ef kdv qrw ehhq ghwhuplqhg1
Zh fdq vroyh wkh jryhuqphqw*v exgjhw lghqwlw| iruzdug lq wlph1 Wklv
|lhogv=
"
zkhuh & lv dq duelwudu| frqvwdqw1 Zh lpsrvh wkh *qr Srq}l qdqfh* erxqg0
du| frqglwlrq rq wkh jryhuqphqw*v vfdo0qdqfldo0prqhwdu| surjudpph/ wkdw
lv/ & ' f Wklv lpsolhv
]
mE|
"
+:165,
Dw wkh lqlwldo gdwh/ | ' fc zh fdq zulwh wkh jryhuqphqw*v vroyhqf| frq0
vwudlqw dv iroorzv
Ef
n kf k Ef
Eft Ef
]
f
"
"
+:167,
"
478
htxdwlrq :166 shuplwv xv wr vroyh iru wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho +jlyhq Ef1
Wkdw lqlwldo sulfh ohyho wdnhv rq wkh ydoxh uhtxluhg wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh h{rjh0
qrxvo| {hg vhtxhqfhv ri sulpdu| vxusoxvhv dqg fhqwudo edqn surwv/ plqxv
wkh lqlwldo ydoxh ri wkh uhdo prqh| vwrfn/ htxdo wkh uhdo ydoxh ri wkh jryhuq0
phqw*v qrplqdoo| ghqrplqdwhg lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj sxeolf ghew1
Lw vkrxog eh fohdu zk| :167 ru :168 lv qhfhvvdu| iru wklv wr zrun1
Ef
Eft Ef
"
Frqvlghu :1691 Xqohvv :167 ru :168 krogv/ wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho zrxog
kdyh wr eh qhjdwlyh/ zklfk zrxog srvh d sureohp lq prvw dssurdfkhv wr
pdfurhfrqrplfv1 Qrwh dovr wkdw wklv *vfdo wkhru| ri wkh sulfh ohyho* frxog
qrw zrun li wkh jryhuqphqw*v lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew zhuh lqgh{0olqnhg ru uhdo
ghew1
]
KEf
"
+:16:,
Htxdwlrq :16: zlwk KEf jlyhq/ dv lw zrxog eh li wkh erqgv zhuh lqgh{0
olqnhg fdqqrw ghwhuplqh wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho1 Lqghhg/ zlwk KEf jlyhq/ zlwk
wkh vhtxhqfh ri uhdo sulpdu| vxusoxvhv h{rjhqrxvo| jlyhq dqg zlwk wkh vh0
txhqfh ri dqg fxuuhqw dqg ixwxuh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwhv jlyhq/ Htxdwlrq :16:
fdqqrw krog lq jhqhudo1 Wkh v|vwhp lv ryhu0ghwhuplqhg1 Wklv srlqwv wr wkh hv0
vhqwldo dz lq wkh *vfdo wkhru| ri wkh sulfh ohyho*1 Wkh jryhuqphqw*v vroyhqf|
frqvwudlqw lv dq _e?||+1 Lw kdv wr krog qrw rqo| iru htxloleulxp vhtxhqfhv
ri sulfhv dqg rwkhu hqgrjhqrxv yduldeohv/ exw iru doo vhtxhqfhv ri sulfhv dqg
hqgrjhqrxv htxloleulxp yduldeohv1 Wklv lv wuxh iru dq| exgjhw frqvwudlqw/
lqwhuwhpsrudo ru rwkhu1 Zkdw wklv phdqv lv wkdw jryhuqphqwv fdqqrw duel0
wudulo| { wkhlu vhtxhqfhv ri uhdo vshqglqj/ uhdo wd{hv dqg qrplqdo lqwhuhvw
udwhv +ru uhdo vhljqlrudjh,/ dqg krsh wkdw wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho zloo eh nlqg
hqrxjk wr sulfh wkhlu rxwvwdqglqj oldelolwlhv lq vxfk d zd| dv wr hqvxuh wkdw
wkhlu lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw lv vdwlvhg1 Vrph hohphqw+v, lq wkh vh0
txhqfhv ri vshqglqj/ wd{hv dqg qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwhv +ru vhljqlrudjh, kdv wr
dgmxvw hqgrjhqrxvo| wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw*v lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw
frqvwudlqw krogv dv dq lghqwlw|/ wkdw lv/ lv dozd|v vdwlvhg1
Li zh zhuh wr iroorz wkh Zrrgirug urxwh/ dqg li frqglwlrq :167 ru :168
lv vdwlvhg/ wkhuh lv qr xqsohdvdqw prqhwdulvw dulwkphwlf1 Wkh jryhuqphqw*v
lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw dw wkh lqlwldo gdwh fdq eh zulwwhq dv
Ef
dkf k Efo
Eft Ef
]
f
"
Zlwk Ef jlyhq dqg ri wkh uljkw vljq/ wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho fdq pdnh
wkh uhdo ydoxh ri wkh jryhuqphqw*v qrplqdo lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew htxdo wr
zkdwhyhu lv h{rjhqrxvo| ghwhuplqhg rq wkh UKV ri wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqw1
Wkh jryhuqphqw fdq uhgxfh wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh +dqg zlwk lw wkh lq0
dwlrq udwh, iru | A dqg iru | A Li zh duh rq wkh vhqvleoh vlgh ri wkh
vhljqlrudjh Odhu fxuyh/ vxfk shupdqhqw uhgxfwlrqv lq wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw
udwh dqg lq wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq zrxog uhgxfh wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh
ri fxuuhqw dqg ixwxuh fhqwudo edqn surwv +ri uhdo vhljqlrudjh,1 Dvvxplqj
Ef : fc zh zrxog jhw d fruuhvsrqglqjo| kljkhu lqlwldo sulfh ohyho wr pdlq0
wdlq htxdolw| ehwzhhq wkh lqlwldo uhdo ydoxh ri wkh sxeolf ghew dqg wkh suhvhqw
glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri ixwxuh sulpdu| vxusoxvhv dqg fhqwudo edqn surwv +ru uhdo
vhljqlrudjh,1
P| lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wklv lv wkdw wklv lv ri qr hfrqrplf lqwhuhvw1 Wkh
ryhughwhuplqdf| qrupdoo| dvvrfldwhg zlwk dq ryhu0ghwhuplqhg vfdo0qdqfldo0
prqhwdu| surjudpph +h1j1 {hg vhtxhqfhv ri B dqg ri 6 lv dyrlghg ehfdxvh
ri wkh idploldu qrplqdo lqghwhuplqdf| dvvrfldwhg zlwk h{rjhqrxv qrplqdo lq0
whuhvw udwh uxohv lq prghov zlwk d h{leoh sulfh ohyho1 Wkh ryhu0ghwhuplqhg
exgjhwdu| uxoh +{hg vhtxhqfhv ri B dqg ri 6/ krzhyhu/ lv qrw dq dffhsw0
deoh lqjuhglhqw lq d zhoo0srvhg pdfurhfrqrplf prgho1 Wkh prghohu fdq rqo|
frqvlghu vfdo0qdqfldo0prqhwdu| surjudpphv iru zklfk wkh jryhuqphqw*v
lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw krogv dv dq lghqwlw|1 Wkh idfw wkdw d plv0
vshflhg +ryhughwhuplqhg, vfdo0qdqfldo0prqhwdu| surjudpph pd|/ xqghu
fhuwdlq duelwudu| uhvwulfwlrqv/ *uhvroyh* wkh lqghwhuplqdf| qrupdoo| dvvrfldwhg
zlwk {hg qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh uxohv lq h{leoh sulfh prghov/ lv qhlwkhu khuh
qru wkhuh1 Zh vwloo kdyh dq loo0srvhg pdfurhfrqrplf prgho1 Wkh fruuhfw
lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri zkdw kdsshqv zkhq zh frqgxfw wkh xqsohdvdqw prqhwdulvw
dulwkphwlf h{shulphqw +orzhu wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh iru f | A dqg
vhw wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh iru | A dw wkh ohyho uhtxluhg wr vwdelolvh wkh
udwlr ri wrwdo qdqfldo jryhuqphqw oldelolwlhv wr JGS dw lwv wlph Ac ohyho/
zkhq wkhuh lv qrplqdo qrq0lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew rxwvwdqglqj dw | ' f lv
wkdw erwk wkh lqlwldo sulfh ohyho dqg wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh iru | A duh
lqghwhuplqdwh1
Qrwh wkdw h{dfwo| wkh vdph *vfdo wkhru| ri wkh sulfh ohyho* lvvxhv dulvh
lq wkh ruljlqdo Vdujhqw dqg Zdoodfh h{huflvh/ zkhq wkh jurzwk udwh ri wkh
47:
qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn lv uhgxfhg iru vrph lqwhuydo1 Li wkh sxeolf lqwhuhvw0
ehdulqj ghew lv qrplqdoo| ghqrplqdwhg/ wkh lqlwldo ydoxh ri wkh sulfh ohyho
frxog eh {hg iurp wkh jryhuqphqw*v lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw/ sur0
ylghg d frqglwlrq dqdorjrxv wr BB ru BB lv vdwlvhg/ hyhq li wkh jurzwk udwhv
ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn zhuh h{rjhqrxvo| {hg iru doo | fc dv zhoo
dv wkh vhtxhqfh ri uhdo sulpdu| vxusoxvhv1 Djdlq/ vxfk dq ryhughwhuplqhg
vfdo0qdqfldo0prqhwdu| surjudpph grhv qrw ehorqj lq d zhoo0srvhg pdfurh0
frqrplf prgho1
Fkdswhu ;
Iruzdug0Orrnlqj Ilqdqfldo
Pdunhwv
;14
Xvhixo uhihuhqfhv duh Wxuqryvn| dqg Ploohu ^5;` dqg Ilvkhu dqg Wxuqryvn|
^47`1 Frqvlghu dq lqyhvwru fkrrvlqj ehwzhhq wzr dowhuqdwlyh qdqfldo lqyhvw0
phqwv1 Wkh uvw lv d rqh0shulrg qrplqdo ulvn0iuhh erqg/ |lhoglqj d qrplqdo
rqh0shulrg udwh ri uhwxuq 1 Wkh jurvv uhwxuq rq m lqyhvwhg lq wkh vkruw
qrplqdo erqg iru rqh shulrg lv wkhuhiruh n 1 Wkh vhfrqg lv d frqvro ru
shushwxlw|1 Wklv lv d erqg surplvlqj d frqvwdqw qrplqdo frxsrq sd|phqw
hdfk shulrg ri K : f Wkhuh lv qr uhghpswlrq gdwh/ wkh pdwxulw| ri wkh erqg
lv lqqlwh1 Wkh sulfh ri wkh frqvro lq shulrg | lv E| Wkh wrwdo uhwxuq
+wkh frxsrq dqg wkh uhvdoh ydoxh, rq m lqyhvwhg lq wkh frqvro lv wkhuhiruh
Kn E|n
Ulvn0qhxwudo lqyhvwruv +zkr dovr ljqruh Mhqvhq*v lqhtxdolw|, zloo
E|
rqo| krog erwk qdqfldo fodlpv li wkhlu h{shfwhg udwhv ri uhwxuq duh htxdolvhg/
wkdw lv/
n E| '
K n .| E| n
E|
+;14,
K n .| E|
E|
+;15,
483
Li ixwxuh lqwhuhvw udwhv duh nqrzq/ ru li h{shfwdwlrqv duh khog zlwk frp0
sohwh vxemhfwlyh fhuwdlqw|/ ;15 lpsolhv +gursslqj wkh h{shfwdwlrq rshudwru,/
]
E| ' K
"
e3
Ur
E_
_r n &e
U|
|f
E_
K
Iru vlpsolflw|/ zh fdq fkrrvh xqlwv vxfk wkdw K ' zklfk lpsolhv wkh iro0
orzlqj uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh orqj qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh vkruw qrplqdo
lqwhuhvw udwhv=
]
u E| '
"
Ur
|
E_
3
_r
+;16,
_
E|
_| u
u E|
ru
_
u E| ' u E|du E| E|o
_|
+;17,
+;18,
484
Mxvw dv zh glg iru wkh vlpsoh prqhwdu| prgho/ zh fdq qrz dqdo|vh wkh
uhvsrqvh ri wkh orqj udwh wr qhzv derxw wkh ixwxuh ehkdylrxu ri vkruw udwhv1
Wklv lv ohiw dv dq h{huflvh iru wkh uhdghu1
Zh qh{w frqvlghu wkh ulvn0qhxwudo sruwirolr fkrlfh ri dq lqyhvwru fkrrvlqj
ehwzhhq dq lqgh{0olqnhg frqvro dqg d rqh0shulrg qrplqdo erqg1
Dq lqgh{ olqnhg frqvro sd|v d frqvwdqw uhdo frxsrq/ : f hdfk shulrg
xqwlo Nlqjgrp Frph1 Wkh qrplqdo ydoxh ri wkh frxsrq sd|phqw lq shulrg |
lv wkhuhiruh E|c zkhuh lv wkh jhqhudo sulfh ohyho1
Ohw eh wkh prqh| sulfh ri d frqvro1 Wkh wrwdo uhwxuq rq m lqyhvwhg lq
dq lqgh{0olqnhg frqvro iru 4 shulrg lv E| E E| n E| n Vkruw qrplqdo
erqgv dqg lqgh{0olqnhg frqvrov zloo rqo| eh khog e| ulvn0qhxwudo vshfxodwruv
li
n E| '
E E| n .| E| n
E|
E| '
oE| E|
+;19,
E|
E|
.| E|
.| R E|
'
n
E|
R E|
R E|
"
e3
Ur
|
oE_
_r
+;1:,
Ghqlqj wkh orqj uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ ou cdv wkh frxsrq |lhog rq dq lqgh{0
olqnhg frqvro/ wkdw lv
ou '
R
485
zh ghulyh wkh iroorzlqj uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh orqj uhdo udwh dqg h{0
shfwhg ixwxuh vkruw uhdo udwhv=
]
ou E| '
"
Ur
|
oE_
3
_r
+;1;,
ou
ou
ru
ou ' ou Eou o
+;1<,
+;143,
zkhuh k : f lv wkh vwhdg|0vwdwh ydoxh ri wkh vkruw dqg orqj uhdo lqwhuhvw
udwh1
Zh qrz hpehg wklv uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq vkruw dqg orqj udwhv lqwr wkh
iroorzlqj vlpsoh DG0DV prgho
+ ' ou n s
+;144,
6 R ' &+ b
+;145,
+;146,
+;147,
o Z
+;148,
486
Z R
+;149,
>6
+;14:,
6R
+;14;,
ou
Z
'
k k
q f
ou
Z
n
k f f
f q q
6
7 s 8
+7
k k
Wkh vwdwh pdwul{/
c kdv d srvlwlyh ghwhuplqdqw dqg d
q f
srvlwlyh wudfh1 Erwk hljhqydoxhv wkhuhiruh kdyh srvlwlyh uhdo sduwv1 Wkh prgho
kdv rqh suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh0yduldeoh/ Zc dqg rqh qrq0suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh
yduldeoh/ ou Iru wkhuh wr h{lvw d xqltxh frqwlqxrxvo| frqyhujhqw vroxwlrq/
zh qhhg rqh vwdeoh dqg rqh xqvwdeoh hljhqydoxh iru / wkdw lv/ zh zdqw d
vdggohsrlqw frqjxudwlrq1 Lqvwhdg wkh prgho lv frpsohwho| xqvwdeoh1
Zh qrz uhsodfh wkh h{rjhqrxv vkruw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh e| wkh iroorzlqj
Wd|oru uxoh
' n BZ n B2+
Zlwk wkh dgglwlrq ri wkh Wd|oru uxoh/ wkh vwdwh0vsdfh uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri
wkh prgho ehfrphv
487
ou
Z
'
kE n B 2 kE B
q
f
ou
Z
n
k kB2 f
f
q q
6
7 s 8
+7
5
+;14<,
+;153,
Z ' > ' E B 3 o ' E B 3 d n 3 E7
+ s o
'
' b
B
B
n
B
B
+;154,
3 E7
+ s
B
B
3
+7 n b
3 s
n &b
B
B
+;155,
+;156,
Lq wkh orqj uxq/ uhdo rxwsxw htxdov lwv h{rjhqrxv dqg frqvwdqw fdsdflw|
ohyho1 Wkh vkruw dqg orqj uhdo lqwhuhvw udwhv duh ghfuhdvlqj lq fdsdflw| rxwsxw
dqg lqfuhdvlqj lq wkh vfdo vwlpxoxv1 Wkh lq dwlrq udwh htxdov wkh jurzwk
udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn/ zklfk lv hqgrjhqrxv dovr lq wkh orqj uxq1
Wkh frh!flhqw uhodwlqj wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh wr wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq/
B : f sod|v d nh| uroh lq ghwhuplqlqj wkh vwhdg| vwdwh ydoxhv ri wkh qrplqdo
lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq1 D orzhu udwh ri vwhdg|0vwdwh lq dwlrq
uhtxluhv d kljkhu ydoxh ri c wkh h{rjhqrxv frpsrqhqw ri wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw
udwh uxoh1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq lv surylghg e| wkh g|qdplfv ri wkh uhvsrqvh wr dq
488
ou mZ'f
' 3 Es +7
489
wrzdugv l2 Qrwh wkdw/ iurp |f rq/ wkh orqj udwh lv idoolqj/ vr wkh vkruw uhdo
udwh lv deryh wkh orqj uhdo udwh1 Wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ulvhv rq lpsdfw
e| wkh vdph dprxqw dv Dv wkh lq dwlrq udwh idoov1 vr grhv wkh qrplqdo
lqwhuhvw udwh1 Rxwsxw lv ehorz lwv fdsdflw| ohyho wkurxjkrxw1
+5, Dq xqdqwlflsdwhg dqqrxqfhphqw ri d ixwxuh shupdqhqw lq0
fuhdvh lq
Dv lq wkh suhylrxv h{huflvh/ wkh orqj0uxq uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv xqfkdqjhg1
Wkh orqj0uxq lq dwlrq udwh idoov1 Lq Iljxuh ;16/ wkh ou lvrfolqh vkliwv xs
yhuwlfdoo| e| wkh dprxqw ri wkh lqfuhdvh lq
Iljxuh ;16 khuh
Wkh hfrqrp| lv dw l ehiruh wkh vkrfn1 Rq lpsdfw/ zkhq wkh ixwxuh
lqfuhdvh lq lv dqqrxqfhg/ wkh lq dwlrq udwh/ Zc lv suhghwhuplqhg1 Wkh orqj
udwh mxpsv lpphgldwho| wrl2 c wkh srlqw rq wkdw glyhujhqw vroxwlrq sdwk/
gudzq zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh lqlwldo vwhdg| vwdwh frqjxudwlrq/ zklfk zloo sxw
lw rq wkh frqyhujhqw vdggohsdwk wkurxjk wkh qhz vwhdg| vwdwh dw | c zkhq
wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv dfwxdoo| lpsohphqwhg1 Dw | wkh
v|vwhp lv dw l 1 Iurp | rq/ wkh orqj udwh dqg wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq ghfolqh
vprrwko| wrzdugv l2 Qrwh wkdw/ ehwzhhq |f dqg | wkh orqj udwh lv ulvlqj/ vr
wkh orqj uhdo udwh lv deryh wkh vkruw uhdo udwh1 Diwhu | c wkh srvlwlrqv ri wkh
orqj uhdo udwh dqg wkh vkruw uhdo udwh duh uhyhuvhg1
Dovr/ ehwzhhq |f dqg | c wkh vkruw qrplqdo udwh lv idoolqj/ vlqfh kdv qrw
|hw ehhq udlvhg dqg wkh lq dwlrq udwh lv idoolqj1 Rxwsxw lv ehorz lwv fdsdflw|
ohyho wkurxjkrxw1
+6, Dq xqdqwlflsdwhg/ lpphgldwh dqg shupdqhqw vfdo h{sdq0
vlrq
D shupdqhqw lqfuhdvh lq s udlvhv wkh vwhdg| vwdwh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg
lq dwlrq udwh1 Wkh Z lvrfolqh vkliwv xs lq Iljxuh ;171
Iljxuh ;17 khuh
Li |rx zhuh wr gudz wkh LV0OP gldjudp lq c + vsdfh dw |f c wkh LV fxuyh
zklfk lv yhuwlfdo +ehfdxvh lw ghshqgv rq wkh orqj uhdo udwh/ qrw rq wkh vkruw
qrplqdo ru uhdo udwh, vkliwv wr wkh uljkw +kroglqj frqvwdqw ou Wkh OP fxuyh
lv krul}rqwdo/ ehfdxvh ri wkh Wd|oru uxoh1 Wkh ixwxuh vfdo h{sdqvlrq udlvhv
ixwxuh rxwsxw1 Wklv judgxdoo| udlvhv wkh ixwxuh lq dwlrq udwh1 Wkurxjk wkh
Wd|oru uxoh/ wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ulvhv dv lq dwlrq ulvhv/ dqg e| pruh
wkdq wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh lq dwlrq udwh1 Ixwxuh h{shfwhg vkruw uhdo udwhv
48:
wkhuhiruh ulvh judgxdoo| iru | : |f Wkh orqj uhdo udwh lv hhfwlyho| d iruzdug0
orrnlqj zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri ixwxuh vkruw uhdo udwhv/ vr lw mxpsv xs1 Lw mxpsv
lpphgldwho| rqwr wkh frqyhujhqw vdggohsdwk wkurxjk wkh qhz vwhdg| vwdwh/
wkdw lv/ wr l2 Dv wkh lq dwlrq udwh ulvhv/ wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lqfuhdvhv
ehfdxvh ri wkh Wd|oru uxoh1 Rxwsxw lv hyhu|zkhuh derxw lwv fdsdflw| ohyho1
+7, Dq xqdqwlflsdwhg dqqrxqfhphqw ri d ixwxuh shupdqhqw vfdo
h{sdqvlrq= frqwudfwlrqdu| vfdo h{sdqvlrqv
Dv lq wkh suhylrxv h{huflvh/ d shupdqhqw lqfuhdvh lq s udlvhv wkh vwhdg|
vwdwh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg lq dwlrq udwh1 Wkh Z lvrfolqh vkliwv xs lq Iljxuh
;181
Iljxuh ;18 khuh
Dqwlflsdwlqj wkh ixwxuh vkliw wr wkh uljkw ri wkh LV fxuyh dqg wkh dvvrfl0
dwhg ixwxuh kljkhu vkruw uhdo udwhv/ wkh orqj uhdo udwh lpphgldwho| lqfuhdvhv
dw wkh dqqrxqfhphqw gdwh1 Wkhuh lv qr dfwxdo vfdo h{sdqvlrq xqwlo | : |f c
krzhyhu/ vr wkh hfrqrp| frqwudfwv/ dv wkh kljk orqj uhdo udwh ghsuhvvhv gh0
pdqg1 Zkhq wkh dqqrxqfhg vfdo h{sdqvlrq lv qdoo| lpsohphqwhg/ rxwsxw
grhv h{sdqg1 Qrwh wkdw ou fdqqrw mxps dw | Wkhuh lv d uhfhvvlrq ehwzhhq
wkh dqqrxqfhphqw gdwh dqg wkh lpsohphqwdwlrq gdwh dqg d errp iroorzlqj
wkh lpsohphqwdwlrq gdwh1 Wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh uvw idoov/ dv lq dwlrq
idoov/ dqg wkhq ulvhv/ dv lq dwlrq ulvhv1 Vlqfh wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwhv uh0
vsrqgv pruh wkdq rqh0iru0rqh wr wkh lq dwlrq udwh +dffruglqj wr wkh Wd|oru
uxoh,/ wkh vkruw uhdo udwh uvw idoov dqg wkhq ulvhv1 Wkh vkruw uhdo udwh lv ehorz
wkh orqj uhdo udwh wkurxjkrxw1
D prqhwdu| jurzwk uxoh
5
65 6
65
6 5
6 5
ou
s
ou
kE n b3 & k kb3
kb3 & f f
7 Z 8 ' 7
q
q f 8 7 +7 8
q
f
f 87 Z 8 n 7
>
f
f
f
f
Wkhuh duh 2 suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeohv/ Z dqg dqg rqh qrq0suhghwhuplqhg
vwdwh yduldeoh/ou Lq rughu iru wkhuh wr eh d vdggohsrlqw htxloleulxp/ zh qhhg
wzr vwdeoh hljhqydoxhv dqg rqh xqvwdeoh hljhqydoxh1 Wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf htxd0
wlrq ri wkh vwdwh pdwul{ lv
E4 ' 4 kE n b3 &42 n kq4 kqb3 ' f
Qrwh wkdw
+;157,
48;
48<
Lw iroorzv wkdw
Ef ' kqb3 E B f
Ef ' kEq n b3 B 2 V f
Ef ' 2kE n b3 & f
Djdlq/ wkh odvw ri wkhvh frqglwlrqv lpsolhv wkdw wkhuh duh wkuhh xqvwdeoh urrwv1
Wkh Wd|oru uxoh iru prqh| jurzwk fdqqrw vwdelolvh wkh hfrqrplf v|vwhp1 Lq
rughu wr vwdelolvh wkh hfrqrplf v|vwhp zkhq wkh jurzwk udwh ri prqh| lv wkh
lqvwuxphqw/ wkh jurzwk udwh ri qrplqdo prqh| pxvw ihhg edfn/ gluhfwo| ru
lqgluhfwo|/ iurp wkh vwrfn ri uhdo prqh| edodqfhv/ Lw lv hdvlo| yhulhg wkdw
d uxoh vxfk dv
>'>
7 n B
fdq vwdelolvh wkh v|vwhp=
5
65 6
65
6 5
6 5
ou
s
ou
kE n b3 & k kb3
kb3 & f f
7 Z 8 ' 7
8
7
8
7
8
7
+7 8
Z
q
q f
q
f
f
n
>
7
f
f
f
B
E4 ' 4 dB n kE n b3 &o42 n kdq n E n b3 &Bo4 kqEB n b3 ' f
+;159,
Iru lqvwdqfh/ d vx!flhqw frqglwlrq iru vdggohsrlqw vwdelolw| lv d srvlwlyh
ghwhuplqdqw dqg d qhjdwlyh wudfh ri wkh vwdwh pdwul{1 Wklv lv htxlydohqw wr
wkh wzr iroorzlqj frqglwlrqv=
Ef ' kqEB n b3 f
+;15:,
+;15;d,
dqg
Lw lv fohdu wkdw iru ;15;d wr eh vdwlvhg/ B pxvw eh vx!flhqwo| qhjdwlyh= B
kE n b3 & Iru ;15: wr eh vdwlvhg/ krzhyhu/ B fdqqrw eh wrr qhjdwlyh/
vlqfh ;15: lpsolhv B : b3
Zh ohdyh wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh uhvsrqvh ri wkh v|vwhp wr vkrfnv dv dq h{huflvh
iru wkh uhdghu1
493
;15
+;15<,
'E|
E|
n .|
'E|n{|
E|n{|
'E|
E|
'E|
E|
' E n E|{|
E|
E| n {|
"
e3
Ur
|
oE_
U|
Er_r n &e
|f
oE_e
494
Wkh uhdo ydoxh ri wkh vwrfn pdunhw lv wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri doo
ixwxuh uhdo frusrudwh hduqlqjv1 Qrwh wkdw htxdwlrq ;163 orrnv yhu| pxfk olnh
wkh sulflqj htxdwlrq iru orqj uhdo erqgv jlyhq lq ;1:1 Wkh rqo| glhuhqfh lv
wkdw zlwk lqgh{0olqnhg frqvrov/ wkh uhdo frxsrq sd|phqw vwuhdp lv frqvwdqw/
zklfk wkh hduqlqjv ri wkh up/ c fdq eh dvvxphg wr ghshqg rq wkh vwdwh ri
wkh hfrqrp|1
Qrwh wkdw wklv vwrfn pdunhw ydoxdwlrq ixqfwlrq zrunv dovr iru dq hqgrz0
phqw hfrqrp|/ l1h1 dq hfrqrp| zlwkrxw fdslwdo dffxpxodwlrq1 Ohw rxwsxw/
+/ eh surgxfhg e| oderxu rqo|/ zlwk d srvlwlyh exw glplqlvklqj pdujlqdo
surgxfw ri oderxu1
+
u
8 Ef
8
8
'
'
:
u<f
8 Eu
f
f
f
f
*4
u<" 8 Eu
'f
Lw iroorzv wkdw
' + u
zkhuh lv wkh uhdo zdjh1 Dvvxph wkh uhdo zdjh htxdov wkh pdujlqdo
surgxfw ri oderxu/
' 8 Eu
Lw iroorzv wkdw
' vE+
3
v ' u8 Eu E8 Eu : f
Zh qrz hpehg wklv *Wrelq*v ^* uhodwlrq lqwr wkh vdph vlpsoh DG0DV
iudphzrun xvhg wr vwxg| wkh whup vwuxfwxuh ri lqwhuhvw udwhv
prgho
+ ' ^ n s
+;164,
495
6 R ' &+ b
+;165,
+;166,
^ ' o^
+;167,
' vE+
+;168,
v : f
o Z
+;169,
Z R
+;16:,
>6
+;16;,
6R
+;16<,
;1514
496
Zh dvvxph djdlq wkdw wkh vkruw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv jryhuqhg e| wkh
iroorzlqj Wd|oru uxoh
' n BZ n B2+
Wkh prgho djdlq kdv rqh suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeoh/ Zc dqg rqh qrq0
suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeoh/ ^ Wkh wzr erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv duh dq lqlwldo
frqglwlrq iru Z dqg *frqyhujh li |rx fdq*1
Wkh htxdwlrqv ri prwlrq iru wkh vwdwh yduldeohv duh
^ ' d7= n B2 s n EB Z n B 2 ^o^ vE^ n s
^
Z
7= n B 2 s n EB Z n 2B2 ^ v ^EB
q
f
6
5
7
=
^ B2^ v f
7 s s7 8
n
f q
q
+7 +
^ ^7
ZZ
7
+;173,
Vwhdg| Vwdwh
Wkh vwhdg| vwdwh htxloleulxp frqglwlrqv duh=
+ ' +7
+;174,
+ s
^ ' 3 E7
+;175,
o'
vE7
+
+7 s
+;176,
497
B
'
' b
B
n
B
B2
B
n
B2
B
+7 n
B
+7 n
B
B
vE7
+
+7 s
vE7
+
+7 s
+;177,
B
vE7
+
B2
+7 b
n &b
B
B
+7 s
+;178,
+;179,
^
Z
l ^EB
^ ^7
q f
ZZ
7
6
5
7=
^ v f
7 s s7 8
n
f q
q
+7 +
l ' 7= n EB Z v
+;17:,
^ ^7m^'f
'
498
E B ^
v
^
EZ Z
7 E7= n Es s7
l
l
l
499
Wklv vfhqdulr dssolhv erwk zkhq l f +Iljxuh ;1<, dqg zkhq l : f +Iljxuh
;143,1
Iljxuh ;1< khuh
^EB 3
q
42 34
Es s7
&
^EB 3
q1
42 34
Zh xvh wkh idfw wkdw 4
? 3= Wklv iroorzv ehfdxvh
lv wkh wudfh ri wkh vwdwh pdwul{/
vr
@ 4 . 5 > 4
@ 5 ? 3=
49:
49;
;1515
Zkhq wkh jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh| vwrfn lv wkh lqvwuxphqw ri wkh
prqhwdu| dxwkrulwlhv/ zh kdyh d wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo g|qdplf v|vwhp=
^ ' b3 n b3 &E^ n s ^ Z^ vE^ n s
' > Z
Lw fdq eh yhulhg wkdw dq *dxjphqwhg Wd|oru2PfFdooxp uxoh* iru prqh|
jurzwk/ vxfk dv
>'>
7 n BZ n B2+ n B
fdq hqvxuh wkdw wkh olqhdulvhg v|vwhp kdv wkh ghvluhg vdggohsrlqw surs0
huwlhv/ zlwk wzr vwdeoh hljhqydoxhv/ fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh wzr suhghwhuplqhg
vwdwh yduldeohv Z dqg dqg rqh xqvwdeoh hljhqydoxh/ fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh
qrq0suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeoh ^
Lw zloo djdlq wxuq rxw wr eh wkh fdvh wkdw ihhgedfn iurp lq dwlrq dqg
rxwsxw zloo qrw vwdelolvh wkh v|vwhp/ exw ihhgedfn iurp wkh vwrfn ri uhdo
prqh| edodqfhv pd| gr vr1
;16
Xvhixo uhihuhqfhv duh Gruqexvfk ^46`/ Exlwhu dqg Ploohu ^<` dqg Eodqfkdug
dqg Ilvfkhu ^6`1 D grphvwlf qdqfldo lqyhvwru fdq lqyhvw m lq rqh0shulrg
grphvwlf vhfxulwlhv zlwk d nqrzq/ vdih udwh ri lqwhuhvw E| Lq shulrg | n kh
zloo wkhuhiruh uhfhlyh n E| mr iru fhuwdlq1 Kh fdq dovr frqyhuw klv m lqwr
.oJr lq wkh vsrw iruhljq h{fkdqjh pdunhw/ dw wkh vsrw qrplqdo h{fkdqjh
udwh 7E|1 Wkh vsrw sulfh ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh lv wkh qxpehu ri mr wkdw kdv
wr eh sdlg dw wlph | lq h{fkdqjh iru .oJ wr eh gholyhuhg dw wlph | Kh
49<
E n W E|8 E|c | n
7E|
+;17;,
+;17<,
Frpelqlqj ;17; dqg ;17</ |lhogv wkh Xqfryhuhg Lqwhuhvw Sdulw| Frqglwlrq/
ru XLS=
n E| '
E n W E|.| 7E| n
7E|
+;183,
4
Iurp 4 . l+w,w @ V+w,
+4 . l +w,w,I +w> w . w, / zkhuh w A 3 lv wkh ohqjwk ri wkh
xqlw shulrg/ lw iroorzv/ surylghg wkdw olpw$3 I +w> w . w, @ I +w> w, @ V+w,> wkdw
7
4 CI +w> w,
@ l+w, l +w,
I +w> w, Cw
+w>w,
olpw$3
Zkhuh CICw
Li zh dvvxph wkdw
I +w>w.w,I +w>w,
w
b
Hw V+w,
Hw olp
w$3
/ ;184 iroorzv1
4:3
.| 7E|
7E|
+;184,
+;185,
"
+;186,
Wkxv/ wkh fxuuhqw vsrw qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh lqfuhdvhv +vsrw m zhdnhqv,/
li ixwxuh .oJ qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwhv ulvh uhodwlyh wr ixwxuh m qrplqdo lqwhuhvw
udwhv/ ru li wkh h{shfwhg orqj0uxq htxloleulxp qrplqdo vsrw udwh rE4 zhdnhqv
+lqfuhdvhv,1
Ulvn suhpld/ wd{ zhgjhv/ wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv dqg ghsduwxuhv iurp frpshw0
lwlyh h!flhqf|/ fdq fdxvh wkh XLS uhodwlrqvkls wr idlo1 Ohw 4E| eh wkh h{fhvv
ri wkh shulrg | qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ryhu lwv XLS ydoxh1 Lw iroorzv wkdw/
E| ' W E| n .| rE|
n 4E|
+;187,
d E Eo_ n .|
]
|
4E_ n .| rEA
+;188,
Wkxv wkh fkdqjh lq wkh qrplqdo vsrw h{fkdqjh udwh ehwzhhq shulrgv |f
dqg | : |f lv jlyhq e|
UA
U|
rE| rE|f ' E.| .|f | dW E Eo_ .|f |f dW E Eo_
U|
UA
nE.| .|f | 4E_ .|f |f 4E_
nE.| .|f rEA
+;189,
.| .|f lv wkh uhylvlrq lq h{shfwdwlrqv ehwzhhq wlph |f dqg wlph |
Xqohvv zh fdq lpsrvh vrph vwuxfwxuh rq 4E|c wklv lv qr pruh wkdq d
ghfrpsrvlwlrq/ zlwk 4E wdnlqj wkh uroh ri wkh uhvlgxdo wkdw hqvxuhv d shuihfw
4:4
+;18:,
"
+;18;,
Wkxv/ wkh fxuuhqw vsrw uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh lqfuhdvhv +XN frpshwlwlyhqhvv
lpsuryhv ru wkh whupv ri wudgh zruvhq,/ li ixwxuh .oJ uhdo lqwhuhvw udwhv ulvh
uhodwlyh wr ixwxuh m uhdo lqwhuhvw udwhv/ ru li wkh h{shfwhg orqj0uxq htxloleulxp
uhdo vsrw udwh SE4 zhdnhqv +lqfuhdvhv,1
Zh hpehg wkh XLS uhodwlrqvkls lq d vlpsoh rshq hfrqrp| DG2DV prgho
zlwk d rdwlqj h{fkdqjh udwh1 Doo frh!flhqwv duh srvlwlyh1 Wkh LV fxuyh/ ;18</
frqwdlqv dq h{rjhqrxv ghpdqg vkliwhu/ sc zklfk fdq uhsuhvhqw h{sdqvlrqdu|
vfdo srolf| vkrfnv/ sulydwh grphvwlf ghpdqg vkrfnv ru qhw wudgh vkrfnv/
vxfk dv d vkrfn wr zruog JGS ru zruog wudgh1
+ ' o n #S n s
+;18<,
6 R ' &+ b
+;193,
8
8
Dv Vwhskhq Wxuqryvn| srlqwv rxw/ wkh ghpdqg iru uhdo prqh| edodqfhv ghshqgv rq
uhdo lqfrph dqg erwk uhdo lqfrph dqg uhdo prqh| edodqfhv duh ghqhg lq whupv ri wkh
frqvxphu sulfh lqgh{ s= Ohw s eh wkh JGS gh dwru1 Dvvxph wkdw grphvwlf lqfrph frqvlvwv
4:5
' W n r
+;194,
+;195,
S r n RW R
+;196,
6R
+;197,
6
>
;1614
Zh djdlq frqvlghu d Wd|oru uxoh iru wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ exw qrz dgg
wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh dv dq dujxphqw lq wkh prqhwdu| uhdfwlrq ixqfwlrq=
' n BZ n B2+ n BS
+;198,
Qrwh wkdw Z/ wkh lq dwlrq udwh ri wkh JGS gh dwru/ fdq lq wklv vlpsoh
prgho eh lqwhusuhwhg dv wkh *grphvwlfdoo| jhqhudwhg lq dwlrq udwh*/ ru (CU
GhDqqh Mxolxv dqg Mrkq Ylfnhuv/ erwk ri wkh PSF/ kdyh vxjjhvwhg wkdw d
ri grphvwlf JGS +qr lqwhuqdwlrqdo glyhuvlfdwlrq khuh,1 Prqhwdu| htxloleulxp zrxog wkhq
eh jlyhq e|
p s @ n+| . s s, l
Rqo| li n @ 4 +prqh| ghpdqg lv krprjhqhrxv ri ghjuhh 4 lq wkh uhohydqw vfdoh yduldeohv
+lqfrph dqg2ru zhdowk,/ zloo zh eh deoh wr zulwh prqhwdu| htxloleulxp lq whupv ri wkh
JGS gh dwruv dorqh1 Lq jhqhudo
p s @ n| . +4 n,+
s s, l
vr wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh zrxog gluhfwo| hqwhu wkh prqhwdu| htxloleulxp frqglwlrq1 L
suhihu wkh h{srvlwlrqdo vlpsolflw| ri wkh vshflfdwlrq dgrswhg lq wkh erg| ri wkh fkdswhu1
4:6
Wd|oru uxoh wkdw ihhgv edfn iurp wkh frvw ri olylqj lqgh{/ wkdw lv/ d sulfh lqgh{
vxfk dv wkh FSL lq wkh XVD ru wkh USL lq wkh XN/ pljkw kdyh udwkhu gli0
ihuhqw rshudwlqj fkdudfwhulvwlfv iurp d Wd|oru uxoh uhvsrqglqj wr (CU Wkh
uhdvrq lv wkdw lpsruw sulfhv/ dqg wkxv wkh h{fkdqjh udwh/ gluhfwo| hqwhu wkh
FSL1 Ohw 3k E7 W k c f k eh wkh frqvxphu sulfh lqgh{/ zklfk
zh dvvxph wr eh wkh sulfh lqgh{ ri d exqgoh ri erwk grphvwlfdoo| surgxfhg
dqg lpsruwhg jrrgv dqg vhuylfhv1 Wkh frh!flhqw k fdq eh lqwhusuhwhg dv wkh
vkduh ri lpsruwv lq wkh frqvxpswlrq exqgoh1 Dovr/ ohw R ' *? dqg Z
' _|_ R
eh wkh lq dwlrq udwh ri wkh frqvxphu sulfh lqgh{1 Vlqfh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh
fdq pdnh glvfuhwh mxpsv/ wklv zrxog pdnh wkh lqvwdqwdqhrxv udwh ri frq0
vxphu sulfh lq dwlrq lqqlwh zkhqhyhu vxfk glvfuhwh mxpsv lq wkh h{fkdqjh
udwh kdsshq1 Zh jhw durxqg wklv dqdo|wlfdo gl!fxow| e| dvvxplqj wkdw wkh
Wd|oru uxoh pdnhv wkh vkruw qrplqdo udwh uhvsrqg wr wkh h{shfwhg udwh ri
lq dwlrq1 Vlqfh glvfuhwh mxpsv lq wkh frqvxphu sulfh ohyho duh gxh wr glvfuhwh
mxpsv lq wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh/ dqg vlqfh vshfxodwlyh h!flhqf| uxohv
rxw dqwlflsdwhg glvfuhwh mxpsv lq wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh/ wklv holplqdwhv
wkh lqqlwh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqrpdo|1 Wkh prglhg Wd|oru uxoh zrxog
eh
' n B .| Z
n B2+ n BS
+;199,
Qrwlqj wkdw Z
' E kZ n kEZ W n r
'Z
7 n kSc
zh fdq uhzulwh ;199 dv
' n B Z n B k.| S n B 2 + n B S
+;19:,
Wkh vwdwh0vsdfh uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri wkh prgho xqghu wkh (CU Wd|oru uxoh
;198 lv dv iroorzv=
5
S
Z
'
B nB 2 #nB2 B E3#
nB2
q#E3B
nB 2
B 3
nB 2
qE3B
nB 2
&
S
Z
n
nB 2 E3
nB2
3q
nB2
B2
nB 2
q
nB 2
f
q f
f
+;19;,
( ' E B
n B 2
2
q d# n E #B E n B 2 o
+;19<,
&9
9
9
9
7
s
+7
W
ZW
6
:
:
:
:
8
4:7
Wkh prgho kdv rqh suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeoh/ Zc dqg rqh qrq0suhghwhuplqhg
vwdwh yduldeoh/ S Wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh lv qrq0suhghwhuplqhg ehfdxvh wkh
qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh lv qrq0suhghwhuplqhg1 Erwk grphvwlf dqg iruhljq
sulfhv duh dvvxphg wr eh suhghwhuplqhg lq wkhlu rzq uhvshfwlyh fxuuhqflhv1
Iru wkh v|vwhp wr kdyh d vdggohsrlqw frqjxudwlrq/ zh qhhg ( wr eh qhjdwlyh1
Qrwh wkdw/ li B ' fc wkdw lv/ li wkhuh lv qr ihhgedfn uhvsrqvh ri wkh vkruw
qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh wr wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh/ wkhq vwdelolw| djdlq uhtxluhv
B : G d kljkhu udwh ri lq dwlrq ohdgv wr d odujhu lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkruw
qrplqdo udwh1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ ihhgedfn iurp uhdo rxwsxw fdqqrw vwdelolvh wkh
v|vwhp1
Li B : f +d ghsuhfldwlrq ri wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh ohdgv wr d ulvh lq
wkh qrplqdo vkruw udwh dqg li B 2 : f +kljkhu rxwsxw ohdgv wr d kljkhu
qrplqdo udwh,/ B : uhpdlqv qhfhvvdu| +dqg vx!flhqw, iru d vdggohsrlqw
frqjxudwlrq1 Li B fc lw lv srvvleoh wr kdyh vdggohsrlqw frqjxudwlrqv/
hlwkhu zlwk B : +li # n E #B E n B 2 : f ru zlwk B ++li
# n E #B E n B 2 f
Iru vlpsolflw| L zloo/ lq zkdw iroorzv/ dvvxph wkdw B2 ' B ' f Wkh prgho
wkhq vlpsolhv wr
5
S
Z
'
f B
q# qE B
S
Z
n
f f
q q q f
f
9
9
9
9
7
6
s :
:
+7 :
:
W 8
ZW
+;1:3,
+;1:4,
o ' oW
+;1:5,
4:8
+;1:6,
S ' # 3 E7
+ s n # 3 oW
+;1:7,
'
B
7=
oW
B
B
' & +7
b
B
n
bB
B
+;1:8,
oW
+;1:9,
Uhdo rxwsxw lv dw lwv h{rjhqrxv dqg frqvwdqw fdsdflw| ohyho lq wkh orqj
uxq1 Wkh orqj0uxq grphvwlf uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh htxdov wkh orqj0uxq zruog
uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh/ ehfdxvh wkh orqj0uxq uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh lv frqvwdqw ryhu
wlph1 D orzhu ohyho ri fdsdflw| rxwsxw dqg dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh vfdo vwlpxoxv
fdxvh d orqj0uxq dssuhfldwlrq ri wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh +d ghfolqh lq Sc wkdw
lv dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh uhodwlyh sulfh ri grphvwlf jrrgv wr iruhljq jrrgv,1 D
kljkhu zruog uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh uhtxluhv d orqj0uxq uhdo ghsuhfldwlrq lq rughu
wr pdlqwdlq edodqfh ehwzhhq d jlyhq qhw vxsso| ri grphvwlf jrrgv dqg d
orzhu ohyho ri lqwhuhvw0vhqvlwlyh grphvwlf vshqglqj1
Zkdw kdsshqv wr lq dwlrq dqg wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lq wkh orqj uxq
uh hfwv wkh rshudwlrq ri wkh Wd|oru uxoh zlwk B : D kljkhu ydoxh ri wkh
h{rjhqrxv frpsrqhqw lq wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh uxoh/ 7=c lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk
d orzhu orqj0uxq udwh ri lq dwlrq dqg d orzhu orqj0uxq qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh1
Uhphpehu wkdw/ lq wkh vkruw uxq/ dq lqfuhdvh lq 7= phdqv dq htxdo lqfuhdvh lq
/ wkdw lv/ d pruh uhvwulfwlyh prqhwdu| srolf|1 Wklv fdxvhv d uhfhvvlrq zklfk
judgxdoo| uhgxfhv lq dwlrq dqg zlwk lw wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh1 D kljkhu
zruog uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh udlvhv wkh orqj0uxq udwh ri lq dwlrq ehfdxvh lw fdxvhv
d whpsrudu| errp +ehfdxvh ri d ghsuhfldwlrq ri wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh,1
Vlqfh S ' f lq vwhdg| vwdwh/ wkhvh vwhdg| vwdwh frqglwlrqv dsso| erwk zkhq
wkh Wd|oru uxoh uhvsrqgv wr (CU dqg zkhq wkh Wd|oru uxoh uhvsrqgv wr FSL
lq dwlrq1
Wkh Uhvsrqvh wr Vkrfnv zkhq wkh Wd|oru Uxoh Uhvsrqgv wr GJL
Wkh S lvrfolqh lv jlyhq e|
4:9
'
ZmS'f
E W Z W
B
4::
4:;
+;1::,
Xqghu wklv uxoh/ wkh vkruw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ehkdyhv dv iroorzv/ diwhu
holplqdwlqj .| S xvlqj ;194 dqg ;196G
'
Ek B
kB
W
W
E Z n
Z
kB
kB
kB
S
Z
'
f
q#
B 3
3kB
qE3B
3kB
&
S
Z
n
3kB
q
3kB
f 3kB
3kB
kqB
kqB
q 3kB
3kB
6
9 s +7 :
9 W
:
7
8
W
Z
+;1:;,
B 3
: f Fohduo|/ vlqfh
Wkh frqglwlrq iru vdggohsrlqw vwdelolw| lv wkdw 3kB
B k3
Wkh vwhdg| vwdwh frqjxudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp dqg vwhdg|0vwdwh uhvsrqvh wr
vkrfnv lv wkh vdph xqghu wkh (CU dqg wkh FSL lq dwlrq yhuvlrqv ri wkh
Wd|oru uxoh1 Rwkhu dvshfwv ri wkh wudqvlwlrqdo uhvsrqvh wr vkrfnv duh/ krzhyhu/
txdqwlwdwlyho| xqghu wkh wzr yhuvlrqv ri wkh Wd|oru uxoh +frpsduh ;1:3 dqg
;1:;,1
;1615
4:<
>'>
7 n BZ n B2 + n B S n Be
Wkh htxdwlrqv ri prwlrq duh jlyhq e|=
5
6
65
5 3
S
b3
#b &
S
7 Z 8 ' [ 7 q#
87 Z
q
qb3
B [3 n B 2 # EB [3 n B 2 B e [3 n B 2 b3 5
7
5
6 >
b3 &
9
f nb
f
s
3
&
9
:9
n 7 f nbq 3 & q f
f 89
9 +7W
B2[
f
f
f 7
ZW
:['
6
8
6
:
:
:
:
8
:f
n b3 &
4;3
;1616
Gxulqj wkh hduo| 4<<3v/ wkh Edqn ri Fdqdgd kdv xvhg wkh frqfhsw ri prqhwdu|
frqglwlrqv +wkh frpelqdwlrq ri wkh pryhphqw ri wkh vkruw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw
udwh dqg wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh, dv wkh rshudwlrqdo wdujhw ri srolf|1 Wkh
ghvfulswlrq wkdw iroorzv lv iurp Iuhhgpdq ^48`1 Whfkqlfdoo|/ wkh prqhwdu|
frqglwlrqv lqgh{ ru PFL/ lv ghqhg dv wkh frpelqdwlrq ri wkh fkdqjhv lq
vkruw0whup lqwhuhvw udwhv +w|slfdoo| wkh <30gd| frpphufldo sdshu udwh, dqg wkh
pxowlodwhudo h{fkdqjh udwh +wkh J043 udwh, iurp vrph duelwudu| edvh shulrg1
Wkh lghd lv wr rewdlq dv hvwlpdwh ri wkh hhfw ri pryhphqwv lq wkhvh wzr
yduldeohv rq djjuhjdwh ghpdqg ryhu wlph1 Iru sudfwlfdo dssolfdwlrqv/ wkh
Edqn ri Fdqdgd kdv xvhg wkh shufhqwdjh srlqw fkdqjh lq wkh lqwhuhvw udwhv
dqg wkh shufhqw fkdqjh +dssuhfldwlrq$, lq wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh/ wkh
odwwhu zhljkwhg e| d idfwru ri *1 Wklv lv edvhg rq hpslulfdo zrun zklfk
sxusruwv wr qg wkdw d 4 shufhqwdjh srlqw fkdqjh lq lqwhuhvw udwhv kdv derxw
wkh vdph hhfw rq djjuhjdwh ghpdqg ryhu wlph dv d wkuhh shufhqw dssuhfldwlrq
lq wkh h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wkh phdvxuh lv wkxv fdofxodwhg dv wkh htxlydohqw ri
shufhqwdjh srlqw fkdqjhv lq lqwhuhvw udwhv1 Zkloh wkh uhdo PFL/ edvhg rq
wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh/ lv wkh wkhruhwlfdoo| uhohydqw
phdvxuh/ iru sudfwlfdo sxusrvhv/ wkh Edqn ri Fdqdgd kdv irfxvvhg rq wkh
qrplqdo PFL1
Wkh udwlrqdoh iru wkh PFL dsshduv wr eh wkh iroorzlqj1 Frqvlghu wkh
rshq0hfrqrp| LV fxuyh ;18<1 Lw lpsolhv wkdw
S r n RW R '
E Z n E+ s
#
#
_S
' # 1 Lq wkh vkruw uxq/ zlwk Rc RW dqg Z
Vr/ kroglqj frqvwdqw + dqg sc _o
suhghwhuplqhg/ kroglqj frqvwdqw + dqg sc _r
' # D I +ff edvlv srlqwv,
_
lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkruw qrplqdo +uhdo, udwh ri lqwhuhvw kdv wkh vdph qhjdwlyh
hhfw rq djjuhjdwh ghpdqg dv d # shufhqw dssuhfldwlrq ri wkh qrplqdo +uhdo,
h{fkdqjh udwh +ghfolqh lq S ru r
L pxvw frqihvv wkdw L kdyh qhyhu ehhq deoh wr pdnh khdg ru wdlov ru wkh
PFL dv dq lqglfdwru ri prqhwdu| frqglwlrqv1 Lq wkh orqj uxq wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw
udwh lq d vpdoo rshq hfrqrp| zlwk shuihfw lqwhuqdwlrqdo fdslwdo prelolw| lv vhw
e| wkh uhvw ri wkh zruog1 Wkh orqj uxq uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh ghshqgv rq fdsdflw|
rxwsxw/ wkh orqj0uxq vfdo vwdqfh dqg rwkhu h{rjhqrxv ghpdqg frpsrqhqwv
dqg wkh orqj0uxq uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh1 Lq wkh orqj uxq/ wkhuhiruh/ erwk wkh uhdo
h{fkdqjh udwh dqg wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lqglfdwh hyhu|wklqj h{fhsw prqhwdu|
frqglwlrqv1
4;4
Lq wkh vkruw uxq/ prqhwdu| srolf| grhv dhfw wkh qrplqdo dqg uhdo lqwhuhvw
udwh dqg h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wklv lv wuxh zkhq prqhwdu| jurzwk lv wkh prqhwdu|
lqvwuxphqw ru zkhq wkh vkruw qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv wkh prqhwdu| lqvwux0
phqw1 Wkh sureohp lv wkdw rxw ri vwhdg| vwdwh/ wkh +uhdo dqg qrplqdo, lqwhuhvw
udwh dqg h{fkdqjh udwh dovr uh hfw wkh ehkdylrxu ri doo rwkhu qrq0prqhwdu|
h{rjhqrxv yduldeohv= sdvw/ fxuuhqw dqg dqwlflsdwhg ixwxuh fkdqjhv lq +7c W c
RW c Z W dqg s doo dhfw wkh fxuuhqw vsrw h{fkdqjh udwh dqg/ xqohvv wkh qrplqdo
vkruw lqwhuhvw udwh lv shjjhg e| srolf|/ dovr wkh fxuuhqw lqwhuhvw udwh1 Wkh
PFL lv derxw dv dffxudwh dq lqgh{ ri prqhwdu| frqglwlrqv dv wkh fkdqjh lq
wkh jryhuqphqw exgjhw ghflw lv dq lqglfdwru ri vfdo frqglwlrqv/ wkdw lw/ lw
lv kljko| xquholdeoh1
Vlqfh wkh PFL lv sduw ri wkh srolf| glvfrxuvh lq rshq hfrqrplhv/ krzhyhu/
lw pd| eh lqwhuhvwlqj wr lqyhvwljdwh krz d vlpsoh srolf| uxoh wkdw uhvsrqgv
wr wkh PFL zrxog shuirup1
Zh fdq frqvwuxfw wzr yhuvlrqv/ d qrplqdo dqg d uhdo rqh/ ri wkh PFL iru
rxu olwwoh prgho dv iroorzv1 Wkh uvw fkdudfwhulvdwlrq/ Uc dggv wkh fkdqjh
lq wkh vkruw qrplqdo udwh iurp vrph edvh shulrg +|f wr wkh dssuhfldwlrq
lq wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh iurp wkdw vdph edvh shulrg/ zhljkwhg e| d
frh!flhqw j ' # : f1 Lq wkh Fdqdgldq dssolfdwlrq/ j ' * Qrwh wkdw
wkh qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv d sxuh qxpehu +dq lqvwdqwdqhrxv udwh ri uhwxuq/
dw d srlqw lq wlph,/ zkloh wkh h{fkdqjh udwh frpsrqhqw lv wkh fkdqjh/ ryhu
vrph qlwh shulrg/ lq wkh orjdulwkp ri wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wkh
wzr duh qrw glphqvlrqdoo| frpphqvxudwh/ dqg wkh zhljkwlqj idfwru j kdv
qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh dw wlph |
wr kdyh glphqvlrqv *+ qdwxudolqvwdqwdqhrxv
,* wr frqyhuw
orjdulwkp ri wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh dw wlph |
wkh orjdulwkp ri d uhodwlyh sulfh ri wzr prqh|v lqwr dq lqvwdqwdqhrxv udwh ri
uhwxuq lq rqh prqh|1
UE| E| E|f jdrE| rE|f o
+;1:<,
+;1;3,
+;1;4,
4;5
wj
w
Zn
S
n wdoE|f jSE|f o n
nw
nw
nw
jw
nw
E #o f
Zlwk w : fc wklv frqglwlrq fdq qhyhu eh vdwlvhg1 Vlqfh xqghu ;1;4 wkh
wudfh ri wkh vwdwh pdwul{ lv srvlwlyh/ zh nqrz wkdw wkh v|vwhp lv frpsohwho|
xqvwdeoh1
Wr lqyhvwljdwh zkdw kdsshqv zkhq wkh jurzwk udwh ri wkh qrplqdo prqh|
vwrfn lv uhodwhg wr wkh PFL lqgh{/ zh frqvlghu wkh iroorzlqj qrplqdo +;1;5,
dqg uhdo +;1;6, PFL uxohv
>E| ' >
7 n BUE|
+;1;5,
+;1;6,
4;6
65
6
5 3
S
b3
#b &
S
3 8 7
7 Z 8 ' [ 7 q#
Z
q
qb
B b3 &# jE n b3 & n B n 5
b3 & Bb3
7 BdoE|f jSE|f o
6 >
5
b3 &
f
f nb
9
3
&
9 s
9
f :
n 7 f nbq 3 & q f
89
9 +7W
Bb3 &
nb3 & f
f
f 7
ZW
5
6
8
6
:
:
:
:
8
4;7
Fkdswhu <
Vhljqlrudjh dqg Vroyhqf|
<14
Vhljqlrudjh
<15
Vroyhqf|
4;9
<1514
Zh vwduw lq htxdwlrq <14 iurp wkh edvlf vlqjoh0shulrg exgjhw lghqwlw| +vrxufhv
dqg xvhv ri ixqgv, ri wkh frpelqhg sxeolf vhfwru ru FSV/ wkdw lv/ frqvrolgdwhg
+ru frpelqhg, qrq0qdqfldo sxeolf vhfwru +QISV, dqg sxeolf vhfwru qdqfldo
lqvwlwxwlrqv +SIL,1 Wkh odwwhu lqfoxgh wkh fhqwudo edqn dqg doo rwkhu sxeolf
vhfwru qdqfldo djhqflhv vxfk dv ghyhorsphqw edqnv/ lpsruw0h{sruw edqnv
dqg sxeolfo| rzqhg frpphufldo edqnv1
_
W
W
|} A| .| |W 8| n U|} -UT| n | |3
n W| .| E|3
-|3
+<14,
_
_
W
W
W
W
| |3 n .| E| |3 n M| M|3 .| E-| -|3
|
<151 VROYHQF\
4;:
W
|3
lv wkh iruhljq fxuuhqf| idfh ydoxh ri wkh qhw vwrfn ri iruhljq fxuuhqf|0
ghqrplqdwhg lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj oldelolwlhv ri wkh frqvrolgdwhg QISV dqg SIL/
h{foxglqj r!fldo iruhljq h{fkdqjh uhvhuyhv/ exw lqfoxglqj duuhduv/ rxwvwdqg0
lqj dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri shulrg | Wklv lqfoxghv wkh qhw qrq0prqhwdu| qdqfldo
oldelolwlhv ri wkh fhqwudo edqn wkdw duh ghqrplqdwhg lq iruhljq h{fkdqjh1
W
-|3
lv wkh iruhljq fxuuhqf| ydoxh ri wkh vwrfn ri r!fldo lqwhuqdwlrqdo
uhvhuyhv +ghqrplqdwhg lq iruhljq fxuuhqf|, dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri shulrg |
M|3 lv wkh qrplqdo vwrfn ri qrq0lqwhuhvw ehdulqj edvh prqh| ru kljk0
srzhuhg prqh| rxwvwdqglqj dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri shulrg |
Zh dovr ghqh wkh iroorzlqj=
M| L| n --|
}
| Eg|} g|3
U|} (.|
+<15,
|
-UT|
|&
+<16,
}
(.| | B | g|3
+<17,
}
8| | 4| g|3
+<18,
L| lv wkh qrplqdo vwrfn ri grphvwlf fxuuhqf| lq wkh kdqgv ri wkh sxeolf
dw wkh hqg ri shulrg |
--| lv wkh qrplqdo ydoxh ri edqn uhvhuyhv khog zlwk wkh fhqwudo edqn dw
wkh hqg ri shulrg |
| lv wkh grphvwlf JGS gh dwru lq shulrg |
g|} lv wkh sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo vwrfn dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | ydoxhg dw
fxuuhqw uhsurgxfwlrq frvw/ wkdw lv/ phdvxuhg lq sk|vlfdo xqlwv/ zklfk duh
dvvxphg wr eh uhdo JGS xqlwv1 Wkh qrplqdo uhsurgxfwlrq frvw ri sxeolf
vhfwru fdslwdo lv wkhuhiruh dvvxphg wr eh wkh JGS gh dwru/ dowkrxjk d fdslwdo
surgxfwlrq frvw lqgh{ glvwlqfw iurp wkh JGS gh dwru frxog eh dgghg zlwkrxw
frpsolfdwlrqv1
(.| lv wkh qrplqdo ydoxh ri sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo frqvxpswlrq ru ghsuh0
fldwlrq lq shulrg |
|& lv wkh grphvwlf fxuuhqf| ydoxh ri wkh sulfh rewdlqhg iru d xqlw ri sxeolf
vhfwru fdslwdo sulydwl}hg lq shulrg |
B | lv wkh sursruwlrqdo udwh ri sk|vlfdo ghsuhfldwlrq ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru
fdslwdo vwrfn lq shulrg |
4;;
4| lv wkh jurvv uhdo fdvk +ru qdqfldo, udwh ri uhwxuq rq sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo
lq shulrg |
Wkh fxuuhqw ru frqvxpswlrq dffrxqw sulpdu| vxusoxv +wkdw lv/ wkh qrq0
lqwhuhvw/ qrq0lqyhvwphqw/ qrq0sulydwl}dwlrq, vxusoxv ri wkh frqvrolgdwhg sxe0
olf vhfwru dqg fhqwudo edqn/ 7|S / lv ghqhg lq htxdwlrq <19
7|S A| n .| |W |}
+<19,
|&
|
|&
+<1:,
-UT|
Sxeolf vhfwru jurvv glvvdylqj e| wkh frqvrolgdwhg sxeolf vhfwru dqg fhqwudo
edqn ru wkh frqvxpswlrq dffrxqw ghflw ri wkh frqvrolgdwhg sxeolf vhfwru dqg
fhqwudo edqn/ (|S / lv ghqhg lq htxdwlrq <1;1
_
W
W
n W| .| E|3
-|3
(|S 7|S E8| (.| n | |3
+<1;,
+<1<,
<151 VROYHQF\
4;<
+<144,
+<145,
+<146,
7| lv wkh qrplqdo idfh ydoxh ri wkh wrwdo qhw vwrfn ri qrq0prqhwdu| wdq0
jleoh oldelolwlhv ri wkh jryhuqphqw dw wkh hqg ri shulrg |1 Lw vxewudfwv wkh
sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo vwrfn ydoxhg dw fxuuhqw uhsurgxfwlrq frvw iurp wkh qhw
vwrfn ri qrq0prqhwdu| qdqfldo oldelolwlhv 1
Lq zkdw iroorzv/ orzhu0fdvh fkdudfwhuv vwdqg iru wkh fruuhvsrqglqj xsshu0
fdvh fkdudfwhu dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS1 Ohwwlqj t| ghqrwh uhdo JGS lq shulrg |/
zh wkhuhiruh kdyhG
S}| |} *E| t| > wkh sxeolf vhfwru frqvxpswlrq0JGS udwlr lq shulrg |
&|} g|} *t| ( wkh sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo vwrfn dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | dv d
iudfwlrq ri shulrg | JGS1
| A| *E| t| > wd{hv qhw ri wudqvihuv dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS lq shulrg |
?W| .| |W *E| t| > iruhljq dlg dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS lq shulrg |
_eR| (.| *E| t| > sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo ghsuhfldwlrq dv d iudfwlrq ri
JGS1
s| 8| *E| t| > sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo lqfrph dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS1
Ro| -UT| *E| t| > sulydwl}dwlrq uhfhlswv dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS lq
shulrg |
K_| |_ *E| t| > wkh udwlr ri wkh qhw vwrfn ri lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew ghqrp0
lqdwhg lq grphvwlf fxuuhqf| dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | wr shulrg | C(
KW| .| |W *E| t| > wkh udwlr ri wkh qhw vwrfn ri lqwhuhvw0ehdulqj ghew
ghqrplqdwhg lq iruhljq fxuuhqf| dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | wr shulrg | C(
4W| .| -|W *E| t| > wkh udwlr ri wkh vwrfn ri iruhljq h{fkdqjh uhvhuyhv dw
wkh hqg ri shulrg wr wr shulrg | C(
rS| 7|S *E| t| > wkh fxuuhqw ru frqvxpswlrq dffrxqw sulpdu| vxusoxv dv d
iudfwlrq ri JGS1
r| 7| *E| t| > wkh sulpdu| vxusoxv dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS1
4<3
_S| (|S *E| t| > FSV jurvv glvvdylqj ru wkh FSV fxuuhqw dffrxqw ghflw/
dv d iudfwlrq ri JGS1
_| (| *E| t| > wkh FSV qdqfldo ghflw ru eruurzlqj uhtxluhphqw dv d
iudfwlrq ri JGS1
K| | *E| t| > wkh qrplqdo ydoxh ri wkh wrwdo qhw vwrfn ri qrq0prqhwdu|
qdqfldo oldelolwlhv ri wkh FSV dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | dv d iudfwlrq ri shulrg
| C(
7K|
7| *E| t| > wkh qrplqdo ydoxh ri wkh wrwdo qhw vwrfn ri qrq0prqhwdu|
oldelolwlhv ri wkh FSV dw wkh hqg ri shulrg |c dv d iudfwlrq ri shulrg | C(
Zh dovr ghqh wkh iroorzlqjG
Z | E| *|3 > wkh udwh ri lq dwlrq lq shulrg |
}| Et| *t|3 > wkh udwh ri jurzwk ri uhdo JGS lq shulrg |
"| E.| *.|3 > wkh udwh ri ghsuhfldwlrq ri wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh
lq shulrg |
o| dE n | *E n Z | o > wkh shulrg | grphvwlf uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh1
Zh qrz fdq uhzulwh wkh lghqwlw| lq htxdwlrq <143 dv htxdwlrq <147 ru <148
ehorz1
K|
"|
K|3 n
EKW 4W|3 n _| j |
E n Z | E n }|
E n Z | E n }| |3
K|
n o|
n }|
K|3 n
+<147,
E n "| E n W| E n |
EKW|3 4W|3 r| j |
E n Z | E n }|
+<148,
Wkh whup
EKW|3 4W|3 fruuhfwv iru srvvleoh ghyldwlrqv
iurp xqfryhuhg
lqwhuqdwlrqdo lqwhuhvw sdulw|1 Wklv lv qhfhvvdu| ehfdxvh lq wkh
no|
whup n}| K|3 / doo ghew kdv wkh grphvwlf uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lpsxwhg wr lw1
Lghqwlwlhv <147 dqg <148 iroorz wkh xqkhosixo exw frpprq sudfwlfh ri
oxpslqj wrjhwkhu fxuuhqw wudqvdfwlrqv dqg fdslwdo wudqvdfwlrqv lq wkh sul0
pdu| ghflw/ r| / dqg lq wkh qdqfldo ghflw/ _| 1 Lw zrxog eh frqfhswxdoo|
fohdqhu wr xvh wkh dowhuqdwlyh uhsuhvhqwdwlrqv ri htxdwlrqv <147 dqg <148 jlyhq
lq htxdwlrqv <149 dqg <14: ehorz1 Qrwh wkdw lq htxdwlrq <149/ +plqxv, qhw
sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo lqfrph Es| _eR| lv jurxshg wrjhwkhu zlwk lqwhuhvw
R
W
W
sd|phqwv d| |3
n W| .| E|3
-|3
o*E| t| / zkloh sulydwl}dwlrq dqg +wkh
qhjdwlyh ri, qhw sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo irupdwlrq duh wuhdwhg dv qdqflqj lwhpv
rq d sdu zlwk h{solflw eruurzlqj1
<151 VROYHQF\
7K|
4<4
7K|3 n _S
+<149,
|
E n Z | E n }|
Z|
"|
| |&
}
Ro|
&|3
EKW 4W|3
n
n
&
E n Z | E n }|
E n Z | E n }| |3
|
j |
Zkhuh
_S|
rS|
|
W| E n "|
K|3 n
EKW 4W|3
n
E n Z | E n }|
E n Z | E n }| |3
4| B |
n }|
}
&|3
dqg
rS| S}| | ?W|
7K|
n o| 7
K|3 rS|
+<14:,
n }|
o| E4| B |
E n "| E n W| E n |
| |&
Ro| n
&|3 n
n
EKW|3 4W|3
&
n }|
E n Z| E n }|
|
j |
Suhvxpdeo|/ zlwk d udwlrqdo sulydwh vhfwru/ Swn fdqqrw h{fhhg wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg
ydoxh ri wkh txdvl0uhqwv wkh fdslwdo lv h{shfwhg wr hduq diwhu sulydwl}dwlrq1
4<5
vhfwru fdslwdo lv jlyhq e| htxdwlrq <14; +li wkh glvfrxqw udwhv |n duh wuhdwhg
dv qrq0vwrfkdvwlf,1
T| ' *4 .|
<"
3
&
[\
&'f 'f
n |n
|n E4|n B |n
+<14;,
Wkxv wkh ydoxh wr wkh jryhuqphqw ri d xqlw ri sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo wkdw
lv h{shfwhg dozd|v wr uhpdlq lq wkh sxeolf vhfwru lv wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg
ydoxh ri lwv h{shfwhg ixwxuh txdvl0uhqwv lq wkh sxeolf vhfwru1 Wkh frqwlqxdwlrq
ydoxh ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo vwrfn lq wkh sxeolf vhfwru grhv qrw vkrz
xs gluhfwo| +dv T| lq wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqwv/ exw wkh vwuhdp ri txdvl0uhqwv
zkrvh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh lw lv/ grhv dsshdu1
<1515
wfro
wfro
<151 VROYHQF\
4<6
iruhljq ghew0JGS udwlr KW|3 4W|3 / wkh qdqfldo vxusoxv ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru
_| dqg vhljqlrudjh dv d sursruwlrq ri JGS j | 1
Htxdwlrq <148 uhtxluhv dv gdwd lqsxwv wkh jurzwk udwh ri uhdo JGS }| / wkh
grphvwlf uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh o| / wkh lqlwldo wrwdo sxeolf ghew0JGS udwlr K|3 /
wkh sursruwlrqdo udwh ri ghsuhfldwlrq ri wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh E"| / wkh
lqlwldo qhw iruhljq ghew0JGS udwlr KW|3 4W|3 / wkh jurzwk udwh ri qrplqdo JGS
E n Z| E n }| / wkh iruhljq qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh W| / wkh grphvwlf qrplqdo
lqwhuhvw udwh | / wkh sulpdu| vxusoxv ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru r| dqg vhljqlrudjh dv
d sursruwlrq ri JGS j |
Slwidoov
Wkh qdqfldo ghflw0JGS udwlr dqg wkh sulpdu| ghflw0JGS udwlrv fdq eh
glvwruwhg +pdgh wr orrn vpdoohu lq wkh vkruw0uxq dw wkh h{shqvh ri ehlqj pdgh
odujhu lq wkh orqj uxq, e| wkh iroorzlqj wulfnv=
+4, Vshhglqj xs sulydwl}dwlrq uhfhlswv/ li wkh sulydwl}hg dvvhwv zrxog kdyh
|lhoghg srvlwlyh ixwxuh qhw fdvk rz wr wkh jryhuqphqw kdg wkh| uhpdlqhg
lq wkh sxeolf vhfwru +wkdw lv/ li wkh| kdg d srvlwlyh frqwlqxdwlrq ydoxh lq wkh
sxeolf vhfwru,1
+5, Fxwwlqj edfn jryhuqphqw fdslwdo irupdwlrq/ li wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg
ydoxh ri wkh ixwxuh qhw fdvk rz wr wkh jryhuqphqw iurp wkhvh lqyhvwphqw
surmhfwv zrxog kdyh h{fhhghg wkh frvw ri wkh surmhfwv1
Wr dyrlg wkhvh sureohpv/ lw pd| eh suhihudeoh wr orrn dw wkh ehkdylru
+lq wkh sdvw dqg dqwlflsdwhg iru wkh qh{w ihz |hduv, ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru
qrq0prqhwdu| qdqfldo ghew qhw ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo vwrfn ydoxhg dw
fxuuhqw uhsurgxfwlrq frvw/ 7K/ jlyhq lq htxdwlrqv <149+48, dqg <14: udwkhu wkdq
dw wkh qrq0prqhwdu| qdqfldo ghew K/ jlyhq lq htxdwlrqv <147 dqg <1481
<1516
+<14<,
4<7
eruurzlqj e| lvvxlqj iruhljq fxuuhqf| ghqrplqdwhg ghew wlphv wkh qhw vwrfn
ri iruhljq ghew1
Jlyhq wkh lqlwldo ydoxh ri wkh wrwdo qrq0prqhwdu| jryhuqphqw ghew0JGS
udwlr dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri shulrg |/ K|3 / wkh wdujhw ydoxh ri wkh ghew0JGS udwlr
shulrgv odwhu/ K|3n / wkh surmhfwhg ixwxuh rqh0shulrg uhdo lqwhuhvw
udwhv gxulqj wkh qh{w shulrgv/ o|n / ' fc c / dqg wkh surmhfwhg jurzwk
udwhv ri uhdo JGS gxulqj wkh qh{w shulrgv/ }|n / ' fc c / wkh
frqvwdqw dxjphqwhg sulpdu| vxusoxv wr JGS udwlr/ r
- / wkdw zloo dfklhyh
wkh wdujhw lv jlyhq e|=
r
- EK|3
&
&3 %
%3 &
3
[ \ n }|n
\ n }|n
K|3
K|3n
K|3n '
n o|n
n o|n
'f
&'f 'f
+<153,
n
}
|
|
|
r
K|3n
K|3 n o
- EK|3 K|3n '
n}
|
|
E n }| no
|
+<154,
Li wkh wdujhw ghew0JGS udwlr lv wkh vdph dv wkh lqlwldo ghew0JGS udwlr/
htxdwlrq wkh uhtxluhg
0shulrg sulpdu| vxusoxv0JGS udwlr vlpsolhv wr
&3 %
&
%3 &
3
[ \ n }|n
\ n }|n
K|3
r
- Ef '
n o|n
n o|n
'f
&'f 'f
+<155,
+<156,
<151 VROYHQF\
4<8
Eo| }|
K|3
n }|
+<157,
n
o
n
o
|n
|n
'f
'f
&'f
+<158,
Zkhq wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh uhdo jurzwk udwh duh frqvwdqw/ htxdwlrq
<158 vlpsolhv wr
<159
&
[
o| }|
n }|
r|3n&
+<159,
r '
n
o
n}|
|
&'
E n }| no
|
Wkh 0shulrg sulpdu| jds +vhh Eodqfkdug hw1 do1 ^4<<3`, lq shulrg
|c C| / lv ghqhg dv wkh h{fhvv ri wkh utxluhg 0shulrg +dxjphqwhg, sul0
pdu| vxusoxv0JGS udwlr/ r
- / ryhu wkh dfwxdo Q0shulrg +dxjphqwhg, sulpdu|
vxusoxv 0JGS udwlr/ r =
C| r
- EK|3 K|3n r
+<15:,
Jlyhq dq lqlwldo ghew0JGS udwlr dqg d wdujhw ghew0JGS udwlr iru shul0
rgv khqfh/ wkh 0shulrg sulpdu| jds fdq eh fdofxodwhg xvlqj iruhfdvwv iru uhdo
lqwhuhvw udwhv/ uhdo jurzwk udwhv dqg dfwxdo sodqqhg ru h{shfwhg dxjphqwhg
sulpdu| vxusoxv0JGS udwlrv1
Qrwh wkdw sulpdu| jdsv ghqhg zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh sxeolf vhfwru qrq0
prqhwdu| qdqfldo ghew qhw ri wkh ydoxh ri wkh sxeolf vhfwru fdslwdo vwrfn/
7K/ fdq eh ghqhg h{dfwo| dqdorjrxvo|1 Wkh uhohydqw sulpdu| vxusoxv zrxog
eh rS cwkh dxjphqwhg fxuuhqw ru frqvxpswlrq dffrxqw sulpdu| vxusoxv +dv d
iudfwlrq ri JGS,/ ghqhg e|
4<9
rS| rS|
+<15;,
Wzr sduwlfxoduo| vlpsoh vshfldo fdvhv ri wkh 0shulrg sulpdu| jds surylgh
wkh vhfrqg dqg wklug vfdo lqglfdwruv1
Wkh Rqh0Shulrg Sulpdu| Jds
Zkhq ' dqg wkh lqlwldo ghew0JGS udwlr lv wkh vdph dv wkh wdujhw ghew0
JGS udwlr dw wkh hqg ri wkh shulrg/ wkh sulpdu| jds fdofxodwlrq vlpsolhv
wr=
C|
r- Ef
r
'
o| }|
n }|
K|3 r|
+<15<,
Qrwh wkdw wkh fdofxodwlrq ri <15< grhv qrw uhtxluh dq| iruhfdvwv rwkhu wkdq
wkrvh jrlqj lqwr wkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh fxuuhqw uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg fxuuhqw
jurzwk udwh ri uhdo JGS1 C| / wkh rqh0shulrg sulpdu| jds lq shulrg | lv
wkh h{fhvv ri wkh dxjphqwhg sulpdu| vxusoxv0JGS udwlr wkdw vwdelol}hv wklv
shulrg v ghew0JGS udwlr ryhu wkh dfwxdo fxuuhqw dxjphqwhg sulpdu| vxusoxv0
JGS udwlr1
Dsduw iurp wkh sureohpv dulvlqj iurp wkh wuhdwphqw ri sxeolf vhfwru fds0
lwdo irupdwlrq dqg sulydwl}dwlrq/ wkh rqh0shulrg sulpdu| jds pd| jlyh d
glvwruwhg slfwxuh ri wkh dprxqw ri dgmxvwphqw wkdw zrxog uhdvrqdeo| eh uh0
txluhg iru wzr ixuwkhu uhdvrqv1 Wkh uvw lv wkdw wkh dfwxdo fxuuhqw sulpdu|
vxusoxv pd| eh dhfwhg e| wudqvlwru| +h1j1 f|folfdo , lqfuhdvhv ru uhgxfwlrqv
lq sxeolf vhfwru uhyhqxhv dqg qrq0lqwhuhvw h{shqglwxuhv1 D f|folfdo fruuhf0
wlrq pd| wkhuhiruh eh lq rughu1 Wkh vhfrqg lv wkdw wkh fxuuhqw uhdo lqwhuhvw
udwh dqg jurzwk udwh ri uhdo JGS pd| eh xquhsuhvhqwdwlyh ri wkhlu uhvshf0
wlyh orqj0uxq h{shfwhg dyhudjh ydoxhv1 Wklv vxjjhvw qhhg iru wkh orqjhu0uxq
shuvshfwlyh dgrswhg lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq1
Orqj0Uxq Vroyhqf|
Zkhq wkh orqj0uxq lqwhuhvw
udwh lv deryh wkh orqj0uxq jurzwk udwh ri JGS/
T3 n}|n
wkdw lv li olp <" 'f no|n ' f/ wkh iroorzlqj jryhuqphqw vroyhqf|
frqvwudlqw lv dvvxphg wr krog iru dq hfrqrp| zlwkrxw d qlwh whuplqdo gdwh
,6<"
3
\
'f
n }|n
n o|n
K|3n ' f
+<163,
<151 VROYHQF\
4<:
Zkhq htxdwlrq <163 krogv/ wkh suhvhqw ydoxh exgjhw frqvwudlqw jlyhq lq
<164 dssolhv wr wkh jryhuqphqw1 Wklv vwdwhv wkdw wkh fxuuhqw idfh ydoxh ri wkh
ghew fdqqrw h{fhhg wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri ixwxuh sulpdu| vxusoxvhv
dqg vhljqlrudjh1
3
&
[\
&'f 'f
n }|n
n o|n
r|n
+<164,
r"
- ' ,6 <"
%3 &
&3
[ \ n }|n
&'f 'f
n o|n
K|3
+<165,
Zkhq wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh jurzwk udwh ri uhdo JGS duh frqvwdqw/
htxdwlrq <165 ehfrphv
r"
-
'
o|" }|"
n }|"
K|3
+<166,
Qrwh wkdw/ zkhq wkh orqj0uxq lqwhuhvw udwh h{fhhgv wkh orqj0uxq jurzwk udwh/ jryhuq0
phqw vroyhqf| lv frqvlvwhqw hyhq zlwk xqerxqghg +dqg iruhyhu ulvlqj, ghew0JGS udwlrv dv
orqj dv/ xowlpdwho|/ wkh sxeolf ghew jurzv dw d udwh ohvv wkdq wkh lqwhuhvw udwh1
4<;
"
C|" ' r"
- r
' ,6 <"
%3 &
&3 %
[ \ n }|n
n o|n
&'f 'f
K|3
3
&
[\
&'f 'f
+<167,
&
n }|n
r|n
n o|n
Zkhq wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh jurzwk udwh ri uhdo JGS duh frqvwdqw/
ehfrphv
C|"
'
o|" }|"
n }|"
dK|3
&
[
n }"
|
&'
n o|"
r|3n& o
+<168,
'
o|" }|"
n }|"
K|3 r|
+<169,
Wklv lv wkh vdph dv wkh rqh0shulrg jds/ h{fhsw iru wkh vxevwlwxwlrq ri wkh
orqj uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh iru wkh fxuuhqw uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh dqg wkh vxevwlwxwlrq
ri wkh orqj0uxq jurzwk udwh ri uhdo JGS iru wkh fxuuhqw jurzwk udwh ri uhdo
JGS1
<1517
<151 VROYHQF\
4<<
(T EK|
|3|
\J
'f
<1518
n |J n
|
+<16:,
533
UHIHUHQFHV1
Dqdqg/ Ulwx dqg Vzhghu ydq Zlmqehujhq ^4<;<`/ %Lq dwlrq dqg wkh Il0
qdqflqj ri Jryhuqphqw H{shqglwxuh= dq Lqwurgxfwru| Dqdo|vlv zlwk dq Ds0
solfdwlrq wr Wxunh|%/ Wkh Zruog Edqn Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 6/ Qr1 4/ ss1
4:06;1
Eodqfkdug/ Rolylhu ^4<<3`/ %Vxjjhvwlrqv iru d qhz vhw ri vfdo lqglfdwruv%/
RHFG/ Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv Zrunlqj Sdshuv/ Qr1 :</
Dsulo1
/ Mhdq0Fodxgh Fkrxudtxl/ Urehuw S1 Kdjhpdq dqg Qlfrod Vru0
wru/ %Wkh vxvwdlqdelolw| ri vfdo srolf|= qhz dqvzhuv wr dq rog txhvwlrq%/
RHFG Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv Qr1 48/ Dxwxpq 4<<31
Exlwhu/ Zloohp K1 ^4<;6`/ %Wkh wkhru| ri rswlpxp ghflwv dqg ghew%/
lq Ihghudo Uhvhdufk Edqn ri Ervwrq/ Frqihuhqfh Vhulhv Qr1 5:/ Wkh Hfr0
qrplfv ri Odujh Jryhuqphqw Ghflwv/ Rfwrehu 4<;6/ ss1 709</ uhsulqwhg
lq Z1K1 Exlwhu/ Pdfurhfrqrplf Wkhru| dqg Vwdelol}dwlrq Srolf|/
Pdqfkhvwhu Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<;<11
^4<;8`/ %D jxlgh wr sxeolf vhfwru ghew dqg ghflwv%/ Hfr0
qrplf Srolf|/ Rfwrehu/ ss1 709<1
^4<<3d`/ %Wkh dulwkphwlf ri vroyhqf|%/ Lq Z1K1 Exlwhu/ Sulq0
flsohv ri Exgjhwdu| dqg Ilqdqfldo Srolf|/ PLW Suhvv/ ss1 477048<1
^4<<3e`/ %Vrph wkrxjkwv rq wkh uroh ri vwdelol}dwlrq dqg
vwuxfwxudo dgmxvwphqw lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv%/ lq Z1K1 Exlwhu/ Sulqflsohv
ri Exgjhwdu| dqg Ilqdqfldo Srolf|/ PLW Suhvv/ ss1 73:077;1
^4<<6`/ %Frqvlvwhqf| fkhfnv rq wkh ghvljq ri vfdo/ qdqfldo
dqg prqhwdu| srolf|%/ Plphr/ ODF/ LEUG/ Rfwrehu
Fkdswhu 43
Srolf| Xqghu Xqfhuwdlqw|
4314
Srolf| Lqhhfwlyhqhvv
4315
534
535
Fkdswhu 44
Sulydwh Frqvxpswlrq dqg
Sruwirolr Fkrlfh
4414
441414
Krxvhkrogv duh eruq hdfk shulrg dqg olyh iru m 2 shulrgv1 Wkh olih vsdq/
mc lv wuhdwhg dv fhuwdlq1 Li iroorzv wkdw hdfk krxvhkrog ryhuodsv zlwk 2m 2
rwkhu jhqhudwlrqv gxulqj lwv olihwlph1 Iru lqvwdqfh/ li m ' 2c |rx ryhuods
zlwk |rxu sduhqwv zkloh |rx duh |rxqj dqg zlwk |rxu fkloguhq zkloh |rx duh
rog +vhh Iljxuh 4414d,1 Li m ' c |rx ryhuods zlwk |rxu judqgsduhqwv zkhq
|rx duh d fklog/ zlwk |rxu sduhqwv zkhq |rx duh d fklog dqg gxulqj plggoh
djh/ zlwk |rxu fkloguhq gxulqj plggoh djh dqg gxulqj rog djh/ dqg zlwk |rxu
judqg fkloguhq gxulqj rog djh +vhh Iljxuh 4414e,1
Iljxuh 4414d/e khuh
Lq wkh vlpsohvw ROJ prgho/ krxvhkrogv ri wkh vdph jhqhudwlrq duh lghq0
wlfdo1 Wklv ohdyhv wzr nlqgv ri khwhurjhqhlw|1 Iluvw/ dprqj wkrvh fxuuhqwo|
dolyh/ krxvhkrogv zloo kdyh glhuhqw djhv1 Zkdw pdwwhuv khuh lv djh lq d
iruzdug0orrnlqj vhqvh= wkh ohqjwk ri wkh uhpdlqlqj olih vsdq1 Vhfrqg/ dprqj
doo wkrvh fxuuhqwo| dolyh/ dqg ixwxuh jhqhudwlrqv |hw wr eh eruq1 Uhglvwul0
exwlrq ehwzhhq khwhurjhqhrxv krxvhkrogv zloo dhfw djjuhjdwh frqvxpswlrq
+dqg/ lq sulqflsoh/ dovr djjuhjdwh oderxu vxsso|, li lqglylgxdo krxvhkrog eh0
kdylrxu lv jryhuqphqw e| wkh olih0f|foh k|srwkhvlv1 Uhglvwulexwlrq iurp wkh
|rxqj wr wkh rog +iurp frqvxphuv zlwk d orqj uhpdlqlqj olih vsdq wr frq0
vxphuv zlwk d vkruw uhpdlqlqj olih vsdq, zloo udlvh fxuuhqw frqvxpswlrq e|
536
441415
D Vlpsoh Prgho
Krxvhkrogv
Zh frqvlghu krxvhkrogv wkdw duh qrw olqnhg wr hduolhu ru wr odwhu jhqhudwlrqv/
hlwkhu wkrxjk suhihuhqfhv +lqwhujhqhudwlrqdo fdulqj, ru wkrxjk srrohg exgjhw
frqvwudlqwv1 Zkhq m ' 2c wkh olihwlph xwlolw| ixqfwlrq ri d uhsuhvhqwdwlyh
phpehu ri jhqhudwlrq | lv jlyhq e|
L| ' ES| c S2|
S| c S2| f
+4414,
ES2
nB |
+4415,
Irxu nh| ihdwxuhv ri wkh krxvhkrog*v xwlolw| ixqfwlrq duh wlph suhihuhqfh/
lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevlwxwlrq/ ulvn dyhuvlrq dqg suxghqfh1
538
+4416,
+4417,
+4418,
ES ' l
Sn1
3
: f l S n 1 : f
dqg
ES ' l
Sn1
3En
f li S n 1 : f
Wkh KDUD idplo| lqfoxghv wkh iroorzlqj iuhtxhqwo| xvhg vshfldo fdvhv=
+4, Wkh lvrhodvwlf +ru frqvwdqw hodvwlflw| ri pdujlqdo iholflw|, ixqfwlrq zlwk
d frqvwdqw sxuh udwh ri wlph suhihuhqfh1 Lw lv wkh vshfldo fdvh ri 4416 zkhq
1
' f +dqg/ zlwkrxw orvv ri jhqhudolw|/ l ' Iru wklv iholflw| ixqfwlrq/
l
ES ' S3 : fc dqg ES ' S3En f li dqg rqo| li : f Wkh
wzr0shulrg xwlolw| ixqfwlrq wkhq ehfrphv
3
3
L| ' 3
ES|
n nB
ES2|
c
3
2
L| ' *? S| n nB *? S| c '
9'
+4419,
3 l1 S2|
e
nB
+6, Wkh txdgudwlf ixqfwlrq1 Wklv lv wkh vshfldo fdvh ri 4416 zkhq '
Wkh iholflw| ixqfwlrq fdq eh zulwwhq dv
_S2|
ES| c S2|
'
_S| _L| 'f 2 ES| c S2|
Wkxv
BES2|
'
S|
ES| c S2|
'
2 ES| c S2| S| 'S2|
53:
S2|
c
S|
zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh pdujlqdo udwh ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq S2| dqg S| Wkh
pdujlqdo udwh ri vxevwlwxwlrq iru wkh jhqhudo wlph0dgglwlyh dqg KDUD fdvhv
+zlwk d frqvwdqw sxuh udwh ri wlph suhihuhqfh, lv jlyhq e|
ES
-7ES2| c S| ' E n B |2 ' E n B
ES|
#
S2| n 1
n1
S|
$
"ES2| c S|
_ *?
2
S|
S|
_ *? -7ES2| c S|
' 3
Qrwh wkdw iru wklv xwlolw| ixqfwlrq/ wkh hodvwlflw| ri pdujlqdo xwlolw| lv
frqvwdqw dqg htxdo wr Iru txdvl0frqfdylw|/ zh uhtxluh f lq wklv fdvh1
D kljk ydoxh iru wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevlwxwlrq hodvwlflw| phdqv wkdw krxvh0
krogv duh txlwh zloolqj wr dffhsw dq xqhyhq sdwk ri frqvxpswlrq ryhu wlph/ li
wkh lqwhuwhusrudo whupv ri wudgh pdnh wklv dwwudfwlyh1 Wkh h{wuhph fdvh lv dq
lqqlwh lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevlwxwlrq hodvwlflw|/ wkdw lv/ d olqhdu xwlolw| ixqfwlrq=
2
S
nB |
D orz ydoxh iru wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevwlwxwlrq hodvwlflw| phdqv wkdw krxvh0
krogv dwwhpsw wr vprrwk frqvxpswlrq ryhu wlph hyhq lq wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo
whupv ri wudgh idyrxu vxevwlwxwlrq wrzdugv hduolhu ru odwhu frqvxpswlrq1 Wkh
h{wuhph fdvh lv wkh }hur lqwhuwhpsrudo hodvwlflw ri vxevwlwxwlrq ixqfwlrq1 Wklv
uhgxfhv wr Ohrqwlh ru {hg frh!flhqw suhihuhqfhv suhihuhqfhv=
ES| c S2|
' 4? S| c
2
S
nB |
*| ES2|
nB
e|
Iru wkh KDUD iholflw| ixqfwlrq/ wkhvh ulvn dyhuvlrq sdudphwhuv duh jlyhq
- '
-
- '
S 1
n
l
3
n
Sl
3
S
53<
-- '
Iru wkh h{srqhqwldo iholflw| ixqfwlrq/ zh kdyh
- '
l
1
-- ' S
l
1
e| S| | | n j |
+441:,
+441;,
+441<,
2| f
+44143,
544
htxdwlrqv 441: dqg 441; uh hfw wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkhuh duh qr lqwhujhqhu0
dwlrqdo jliwv ru ehtxhvwv1 Htxdwlrq 44143 uh hfwv wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw krxvh0
krogv fdqqrw glh lq ghew1 Zlwk olihwlph xwlolw| vwulfwo| lqfuhdvlqj lq frq0
vxpswlrq lq erwk shulrgv/ doo wkuhh zhdn htxdolwlhv zloo krog dv htxdolwlhv1
Vshflfdoo|/ krxvhkrogv duh ohjdoo| edqqhg iurp eruurzlqj lq wkh odvw shulrg
ri wkhlu olyhv 6 dqg zloo kdyh qr lqfhqwlyh wr eh srvlwlyh qhw ohqghuv lq wkh odvw
shulrg ri wkhlu olyhv1
Htxloleulxp lq wkh ohqglqj pdunhw rffxuv zkhq wkhuh lv qr h{fhvv ghpdqg
iru ordqv dw wkh suhydlolqj lqwhuhvw udwh1 Wrwdo ohqglqj lq shulrg | lv wkh vxp
ri wkh ohqglqj e| wkh |rxqj dqg wkh ohqglqj e| wkh rog1 Wkhuh duh | : f
phpehuv ri jhqhudwlrq |c dqg wkh jhqhudwlrqdo jurzwk udwh lv ?| c wkdw lv/
|n ' E n ?|n |
?|n :
Wkh jryhuqphqw
Doo wkh jryhuqphqw grhv lv ohy| oxps0vxp wd{hv ru sd| oxps0vxp wudqvihuv
wr krxvhkrogv1 Wkhuh lv qr h{kdxvwlyh sxeolf vshqglqj dqg qr lvvxdqfh ri
jryhuqphqw ghew lqvwuxphqwv1 Wklv lpsolhv
| | n 2|3 |3 f
+44144,
Htxloleulxp
Htxloleulxp lq wkh ordq pdunhw lv jlyhq e|=
+44145,
| | n 2|3 |3 f
iru no|n ' f
+44146,
| | n 2|3 |3 f
iru o|n '
+44147,
Li krxvhkrogv duh qrw dqrq|prxv +dqg li d shuvrq*v djh lv nqrzq,/ qr ohqghu zrxog
hyhu ohqg wr d eruurzhu zkr lv lq wkh odvw shulrg ri klv olih1
+44148,
546
S| '
S2| ' f
Lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh idploldu lqwhulru lqwhuwhpsrudo uvw0rughu frqglwlrq/
3 n o|n 2 3
S|
'
S|
nB
+44149,
fdq fkdudfwhul}h d frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp +zklfk kdv S2| ' fc rqo| li
o|n ' 1 Frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh lqglhuhqfh fxuyhv lq S S2 vsdfh
duh vwulfwo| frqyh{ wr wkh ruljlq + : f
Zlwk S2| ' f dqg S| ' lq dq| frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp/ zh zrxog qrw
qhfhvvdulo| +iru d jhqhudo xwlolw| ixqfwlrq,/ h{shfw d wdqjhqf| vroxwlrq iru
frqvxpswlrq/ zlwk dq lqglhuhqfh fxuyh wdqjhqw wr wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqw1
Krzhyhu/ zlwk wkh lvrhodvwlf xwlolw| ixqfwlrq/ wklv zloo eh wkh fdvh1
Wkh vorsh ri wkh lqglhuhqfh fxuyhv lv
2
_S2|
S
' E n B |
_S| L| 'L|
S|
zklfk lv }hur zkhqhyhu S2| ' f Vr wkhuh lv lqghhg d udwkhu ghjhqhudwh
wdqjhqf| htxloleulxp zlwk o|n ' iru doo |1
H!flhqf|1 Zh glvwlqjxlvk wzr qrwlrqv ri h!flhqf|= g|qdplf h!flhqf|
dqg Sduhwr0h!flhqf|1
Wkh ghfhqwudolvhg frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp ri wklv vlpsoh h{dpsoh lv qrw
Sduhwr h!flhqw/ dowkrxjk lw lv g|qdplfdoo| h!flhqw1
2
S2|3n |3n |n S|n |n n S|3n |3n iru vrph dqg
|n |n iru doo
Wkh frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp ri rxu h{dpsoh lv g|qdplfdoo| h!flhqw1 Wklv
lv reylrxv/ vlqfh wkh hqwluh shulvkdeoh hqgrzphqw hdfk shulrg/ | c lv frq0
vxphg zlwkrxw sk|vlfdo zdvwh=
| S| | n S2|3 |3 ' S| | ' |
Sduhwr h!flhqf|
Ghqlwlrq 5 D ihdvleoh doorfdwlrq lv Sduhwr h!flhqw li wkhuh grhv qrw h{lvw
dqrwkhu ihdvleoh doorfdwlrq lq zklfk dw ohdvw rqh frqvxphu lv ehwwhu r dqg
qr frqvxphu lv zruvh r1
Qrwh wkdw li dq doorfdwlrq lv g|qdplfdoo| lqh!flhqw/ lw lv dovr Sduhwr0
lqh!flhqw1
Lq wkh frqwh{w ri rxu vlpsoh prgho/ wklv phdqv wkdw d ihdvleoh frqvxpswlrq
doorfdwlrq iS| c S2| ( 4 | n4j lv Sduhwr lqh!flhqw li dqg rqo| li wkhuh
2
h{lvwv dqrwkhu ihdvleoh frqvxpswlrq doorfdwlrq iS| c S| ( 4 | n4jcvxfk
2
wkdw/ L |n ES|n c S2|n L |n ES|n c S|n iru vrph dqg
L |n L |n iru doo
Lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp doorfdwlrq ri rxu vlpsoh prgho
lv Sduhwr0lqh!flhqw1 Zkloh qrqh ri wkh hqgrzphqw jhwv zdvwhg lq dq hq0
jlqhhulqj vhqvh +wkh htxloleulxp lv g|qdplfdoo| h!flhqw,/ wkh doorfdwlrq ri
frqvxpswlrq dfurvv wkh rog dqg wkh |rxqj dolyh dw dq| rqh wlph dqg wkh
doorfdwlrq ri frqvxpswlrq dfurvv wkh olihwlph ri hyhu| krxvhkrog lq hyhu|
jhqhudwlrq lv suhww| zrhixo= wkh |rxqj frqvxph wkh hqwluh hqgrzphqw> wkh
rog frqvxph qrwklqj1 Wkhuh lv qr vfrsh iru frqvxpswlrq vprrwklqj ryhu wkh
olih f|foh dqg dfurvv jhqhudwlrqv1
Wkh wkh frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp doorfdwlrq dv d ehqfkpdun1 Ohw wkh vrfldo
sodqqhu/ vwduwlqj lq shulrg |/ wdnh d vpdoo dprxqw/ " : fc ri wkh hqgrzphqw
548
e| |
e2|3 |3
" \
[
' '
n o|n
e|n |n n e2|3n |3n
+4414:,
+4414;,
g|
c
|
+4414<,
+44153,
+44154,
dqg
+44155,
54:
3 n Z |n 2 3
'
S|
S|
nB
S| n
+44156,
S2 '
n Z |n |
+44157,
+44158,
+44159,
dqg
S|
n o|n ' n Z |n : f
+4415:,
3 n Z |n 2 3
S|
'
S|
nB
+4415;,
n
S2 ' | n
n Z |n |
n ?|n
n Z|n
|n
+4415<,
+44163,
+44164,
no 'nZ :f
+44165,
3 n Z 2 3
'
S
S|
nB |
+44166,
S|
2
n
S ' | n
nZ |
n?
|n
nZ
+44167,
S2|3
n
' n E n Z| &| E n ?|n &|n
n ?|
54<
Dvvxph wkdw/ lq shulrg |f / wkh wzr jhqhudwlrqv dolyh dw wkh wlph duh do0
orzhg wr frqvxph zkdw wkh| zrxog kdyh frqvxphg lq wkh frpshwlwlyh htxlole0
ulxp/ soxv wkh hqwluh fdslwdo vwrfn wkdw zrxog kdyh ehhq dffxpxodwhg xqghu
h |f n 1 Wkhuhdiwhu/ qr vwrudjh wdnhv sodfh/
wkh frpshwlwlyh vfkhph/ wkdw lv/ g
wkdw lv/ &| ' fc | : |f Iru frqfuhwhqhvv/ zh dvvxph wkdw lw lv wkh |rxqj lq
shulrg |f zkr frqvxph wkh fdslwdo vwrfn wkdw zrxog kdyh ehhq dffxpxodwhg
lq wkh frpshwlwlyh fdvh +lq dgglwlrq wr zkdw wkh| zrxog kdyh frqvxphg lq
wkh frpshwlwlyh fdvh,/ zkloh wkh rog lq shulrg |f frqvxph zkdw wkh| zrxog
kdyh frqvxphg lq wkh frpshwlwlyh htxloleulxp1
Wkh uhvrxufh frqvwudlqw/ ru lqwhujhqhudwlrqdo frqvxpswlrq srvvlelolw| vhw
lq shulrg |f lv wkhuhiruh jlyhq e|=
S|f
S2|f 3
n
' n E n Z |f & |f
n ?| f
S2|3
'
n ?|
Frqvlghu wkh vshfldo fdvh zkhuh wkh hfrqrp| lv vwdwlrqdu| +?| ' ?( Z| ' Z
Lq wklv fdvh wkh olih0wlph frqvxpswlrq srvvlelolwlhv ri hdfk jhqhudwlrq h{0
fhsw iru jhqhudwlrqv |f dqg |f duh wkh vdph dv wkh lqwhujhqhudwlrqdo frq0
vxpswlrq srvvlelolw| vhw=
S2|
' ( | : |f
n?
Wklv frqwudvwv zlwk wkh vwdwlrqdu| frpshwlwlyh olih0wlph frqvxpswlrq srv0
vlelolwlhv ri wkh vxffhvvlyh jhqhudwlrqv=
S| n
S| n
S2|
' ( | |f
nZ
441416
Zh qrz fkdqjh wkh prgho e| dvvxplqj wkdw zkloh frqvxphu jrrgv duh shu0
lvkdeoh +Z | ' wkhuh lv d qrq0frqvxpdeoh gxudeoh frpprglw|1 Wkh frp0
prglw| lq txhvwlrq lv zlwkrxw lqwulqvlf ydoxh/ hlwkhu dv d frqvxpswlrq jrrg
+lw grhv qrw hqwhu wkh xwlolw| ixqfwlrq, ru dv d fdslwdo jrrg +lw lv qrw dq lqsxw
lqwr dq| nlqg ri krxvhkrog vwrudjh whfkqrorj| wkdw surgxfhv d uhwxuq lq wkh
irup ri lqwulqvlfdoo| xvhixo frpprglwlhv,1 Zh fdq wklqn ri wklv gxudeoh jrrg
dv *shw urfnv*7 1
Wkh vwrfn ri shw urfnv lv srvlwlyh dqg lwv txdqwlw| dw wkh lqlwldo gdwh/ | '
|f c lv h{rjhqrxvo| jlyhq1 Wkh djjuhjdwh vwrfn ri shw urfnv dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri
shulrg | lv ghqrwhg | c wkh sulfh ri shulrg | shw urfnv lq whupv ri wkh shulrg |
frqvxpdeoh jrrg lv | Shw urfnv fdq kdyh d qrq0}hur h{rjhqrxv *rzq udwh
ri uhwxuq*/ wkdw lv/ d udwh ri uhwxuq lq whupv ri shw urfnv1 D xqlw ri shw urfnv
khog +vwruhg, iurp shulrg | wr shulrg | n jurzv lqwr n
|n xqlwv ri shw
urfnv1
Shw urfnv duh dq dvvhw ri wkhlu rzqhu/ dqg d oldelolw| ri qr rqh1 Lq wkh
lqlwldo shulrg/ |f c wkh vwrfn ri shw urfnv/ |f lv rzqhg e| wkh rog +wkrvh eruq
lq shulrg |f ,1 D uhsuhvhqwdwlyh |rxqj krxvhkrog*v ghpdqg iru shw urfnv
_
dw wlph |c lv ghqrwhg |c|n
Wkh krxvhkrog exgjhw frqvwudlqwv duh=
7
Wklv zrxog qrw zrun lq Fdoliruqld/ zkhuh wkh qdwlyhv dfwxdoo| olnh wkhlu shw urfnv1
554
_
S| ' | |c|n
+44168,
_
S2| ' E n
|n |n |c|n
+44169,
Lq htxloleulxp/ wkh ghpdqg iru shw urfnv htxdov wkh h{rjhqrxv vwrfn=
_
| |c|n
' |n
|n ' E n
|n |
|
Shu fdslwd shw urfnv duh ghqrwhg 6|
|
Wkh qrq0shw0urfn| htxloleulxp1
Qrwh uvw wkdw wkhuh dozd|v h{lvwv dq htxloleulxp lq zklfk wkh sulfh ri shw
urfnv lv }hur hdfk shulrg1 Wklv lv wkh idploldu Sduhwr0lqh!flhqw htxloleulxp
lq zklfk hdfk jhqhudwlrq frqvxphv wkh shulvkdeoh hqgrzphqw zkloh |rxqj
dqg grhv qrw frqvxph dq|wklqj zkloh rog
S| '
S2| ' f
| ' f
Lq vrph vhqvh/ wkh }hur sulfh ri shw urfnv htxloleulxp lv wkh rqo| ixq0
gdphqwdo htxloleulxp1 Shw urfnv duh zlwkrxw lqwulqvlf ydoxh dv frqvxpswlrq
jrrgv/ fdslwdo jrrgv ru lqwhuphgldwh jrrgv1 Dq| srvlwlyh ydoxdwlrq ri shw
urfnv lv d *exeeoh*1 D shw urfn kdv ydoxh wrgd| rqo| ehfdxvh lw lv h{shfwhg
wr kdyh ydoxh wrpruurz/ hwf1 dg lqqlwxp1 Vrph ri wkhvh *exeeohv* duh ehq0
hfldo1 Dv zh vkdoo vhh/ vwdwlrqdu| srvlwlyh sulfh ri shw urfnv htxloleuld duh
Sduhwr h!flhqw1
D pxowlwxgh ri shw0urfn| htxloleuld1
Htxloleuld zlwk d qrq0}hur sulfh ri shw urfnv duh fkdudfwhulvhg e|=
3
S|
'
S|
|n
E
|
n
|n 2 3
S|
nB
n
|n
| 2
S '
|
|n
+4416;,
S2|3
'
n ?|
S| n
|
' S|
6|n '
6|n
+4416<,
n ?|n
n
|n
n ?|n
+4416:,
+44173,
6|
+44174,
Frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh srsxodwlrq jurzwk udwh lv frqvwdqw/ ?| '
?Iluvw qrwh wkdw wkh uvw wkuhh htxdwlrqv/ 4416:/ 4416; dqg ^B` fdq eh vroyhg
iru wkh wkuhh *uhdo* yduldeohv/ S| c S2| dqg wkh lq dwlrq idfwru iru shw urfnv/ |n
|
Frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh srsxodwlrq jurzwk udwh lv frqvwdqw/ ?| ' ?
Vwdwlrqdu| htxloleuld
Wkhuh h{lvwv d vwdwlrqdu| vroxwlrq iru wkh uhdo udwh ri uhwxuq rq shw urfnv/
|n
n o|n
E n |n dqg olih0f|foh frqvxpswlrq surohv/ jlyhq e|
|
3 E n o 2 3
S
'
S
nB
S n
+44175,
S2
'
n o
+44176,
S2
'
n?
+44177,
S n
Zkloh wkh uhdo udwh ri uhwxuq rq shw urfnv zloo eh frqvwdqw/ wkh lq dwlrq
udwh ri shw urfnv qhhg qrw eh1 Iurp 4417:/ lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh lq dwlrq udwh
556
ri shw urfnv zloo eh frqvwdqw rqo| li wkh h{rjhqrxv rzq udwh ri uhwxuq rq shw
urfnv/ c lv frqvwdqw1
| ' S
+44178,
6|n n ?
6|n '
n
|n
n?
6|
|n
n o
n?
'
'
|
n |n
n
|n
+44179,
+4417:,
Iurp htxdwlrqv44176 dqg 44177 lv iroorzv wkdw wkh uhdo udwh ri uhwxuq rq
shw urfnv htxdov wkh udwh ri srsxodwlrq jurzwk1 Zlwk wkh udwh ri uhwxuq wr
sulydwh vdylqj htxdo wr wkh *elrorjlfdo* udwh ri uhwxuq dqg zlwk shulvkdeoh
frpprglwlhv/ wkh vwdwlrqdu| htxloleulxp zlwk d srvlwlyh sulfh ri shw urfnv
lv wkhuhiruh Sduhwr0h!flhqw1 Wr ghwhuplqh wkh sulfh vhtxhqfh ri shw urfnv
udwkhu wkdq mxvw wkhlu lq dwlrq udwhv/ zh pxvw nqrz wkh hqwluh vhtxhqfh ri
shw urfn vwrfnv1
Qrq0vwdwlrqdu| htxloleuld
Zh frqwlqxh wr dvvxph wkdw wkh srsxodwlrq jurzwk udwh lv frqvwdqw/ ?| '
?1 Iru vlpsolflw| zh dovr dvvxph wkdw wkh rzq udwh ri uhwxuq rq shw urfnv lv
frqvwdqw dqg iru hyhq juhdwhu qrwdwlrqdo vlpsolflw|/ zh dvvxph lw htxdov }hur=
| ' f
Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh vwdwlrqdu| htxloleulxp/ wkhuh zloo lq jhqhudo h{lvw lq0
qlwho| pdq| qrq0vwdwlrqdu| htxloleuld1 Qrwh wkdw zlwk
| ' f/ wkh vwrfn
ri shw urfnv lv frqvwdqw dqg wkh jurzwk idfwru ri 6cwkh shu fdslwd vwrfn
ri shw urfnv/ lv wkh uhflsurfdo ri wkh jurzwk idfwru ri wkh srsxodwlrq1 Wkh
htxloleulxp frqglwlrqv iru | |f duh
3
S|
'
|n
|
nB
2 3
S|
+4417;,
S| n
| 2
S '
|
|n
+4417<,
S| n
S2|3
'
n?
+44183,
|
' S|
6|n '
6|n
n?
+44184,
6|
n?
+44185,
Wklv lpsolhv wkh iroorzlqj uvw0rughu glhuhqfh htxdwlrq iru wkh sulfh ri
shw urfnv=
|n
' E n B
3
|
3
| 6|n
| '
li 9'
+44186,
li '
6|n
Frqvlghu wkh vshfldo fdvh zkhuh ? ' f dqg 6 lv frqvwdqw1 Erwk wkh
qrq0orjdulwkplf fdvh/ jlyhq lq 44186/ dqg wkh orjdulwkplf fdvh kdyh wkh frq0
vwdqw vroxwlrq | ' 6 dqg wkh qrq0shw0urfn| vroxwlrq/ | ' f Wkh qrq0
orjdulwkplf fdvh dovr kdv d frqwlqxxp ri qrq0frqvwdqw vroxwlrqv1
Wkh sulfh ri shw urfnv/ dq dvvhw sulfh ghwhuplqhg lq dq h!flhqw/ iruzdug0
orrnlqj shw urfn pdunhw/ lv d qrq0suhghwhuplqhg vwdwh yduldeoh1 Wkhuh lv qr
reylrxv erxqgdu| frqglwlrq prwlydwhg e| hfrqrplf wkhru| ru hpslulfv/ wkdw
shuplwv xv wr fkrrvh d xqltxh vroxwlrq iru 441861
Iru : +zklfk phdqv d kljk +devroxwh, ydoxh ri wkh hodvwlflw| ri
pdujlqdo xwlolw|/ wkdw lv/ d orz lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevwlwxwlrq hodvwlflw|/ wkh frq0
vwdqw srvlwlyh sulfh vroxwlrq lv +orfdoo|, vwdeoh iru doo vroxwlrq wudmhfwrulhv
vwduwlqj iurp d srvlwlyh lqlwldo sulfh ri shw urfnv1 Wklv lv vkrzq lq Iljxuh
4416d1
Iljxuh 4416d khuh
Iru c wkh frqvwdqw srvlwlyh sulfh vroxwlrq lv xqvwdeoh1 Wkh }hur sulfh
htxloleulxp lv orfdoo| vwdeoh iru doo vroxwlrq wudmhfwrulhv vwduwlqj iurp dq lqlwldo
sulfh ehorz wkh frqvwdqw srvlwlyh sulfh vroxwlrq1 Wklv lv vkrzq lq Iljxuh
4416e1
Iljxuh 4416e khuh
558
Iurp 44173 lw iroorzv wkdw qr htxloleulxp fdq h{lvw wkdw kdv wkh sulfh ri
shw urfnv ulvlqj zlwkrxw erxqg/ vlqfh wklv zrxog fdxvh wkh ydoxh ri wkh zhdowk
ri wkh rog wr ulvh zlwkrxw erxqg1 Frqvxpswlrq e| wkh rog zrxog ulvh zlwkrxw
erxqg dqg wklv zrxog ylrodwh wkh hfrqrp|0zlgh uhdo uhvrxufh frqvwudlqw1
Qrq0vwdwlrqdu| htxloleuld lq zklfk wkh sulfh ri shw urfnv idoov vwhdglo| dqg
whqgv wrzdugv }hur duh srvvleoh/ krzhyhu1 Lq wkh olplw wkh hfrqrp| zrxog
kdyh d }hur sulfh ri shw urfnv1
Qrwh wkdw iru shw urfnv wr kdyh d srvlwlyh sulfh/ lw lv qhfhvvdu| wkdw wkhuh
eh dq lqqlwh qxpehu ri jhqhudwlrqv1 Shu urfnv/ zklfk duh qrw lqwulqvlfdoo|
ydoxdeoh dv frqvxpswlrq jrrgv/ fdslwdo jrrgv ru lqwhuphgldwh lqsxwv/ kdyh
d srvlwlyh ydoxh lq shulrg | rqo| li lw lv h{shfwhg wr kdyh d srvlwlyh ydoxh
lq shulrg | n Lw fdq rqo| kdyh d srvlwlyh ydoxh lq shulrg | n li lw lv
h{shfwhg wr kdyh d srvlwlyh ydoxh lq shulrg | n 2 hwf1 Qhfhvvdu| iru d srvlwlyh
ydoxh ri shw urfnv lv wkhuhiruh wkdw iroorzlqj dq| jhqhudwlrq/ wkhuh lv dozd|v
dqrwkhu jhqhudwlrq1 Wklv phdqv wkdw iroorzlqj dq| jhqhudwlrq wkhuh zloo
dozd|v eh lqqlwho| pdq| jhqhudwlrqv1 Zlwk jhqhudwlrqv olylqj iru d qlwh
shulrg ri wlph/ wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh hfrqrp| kdv wr jr rq iruhyhu1 Wkh nh|
uhtxluhphqw/ krzhyhu/ lv wkdw wkh qxpehu ri jhqhudwlrqv eh dq rshq vhw/ qrw
wkdw wkh hfrqrplf v|vwhp kdyh dq lqqlwh olihwlph1
Iru uhdvrqv L grq*w xqghuvwdqg/ vrph dxwkruv uhihu wr wkh shw urfnv ri
wklv vhfwlrq dv prqh|1 Wkh uhflsurfdo ri wkh sulfh ri shw urfnv/ |
|
wkhq lv lqwhusuhwhg dv wkh jhqhudo sulfh ohyho1 Lw vkrxog eh fohdu wkdw wkh shw
urfnv duh qrwklqj exw d sxuh vwruh ri ydoxh/ qrw d irup ri dw prqh| exw d
dw dvvhw1 Wkh| gr qrw vhuyh dv d phdqv ri sd|phqw/ phglxp ri h{fkdqjh
ru wudqvdfwlrqv phglxp/ iru zklfk wkhuh lv qr uroh lq wkh prgho1 Wkh| qhhg
qrw eh wkh qxpudluh1/ xqlw ri dffrxqw ru lqyrlfh xqlw/ zklfk lv duelwudu| lq
wklv prgho1 Li wklv lv d wkhru| ri prqh|/ L dp wkh hpshuru ri Fklqd1
441417
Wkh 50shulrg prgho kdv qr sulydwh lqwhujhqhudwlrqdo wudgh xqohvv wkhuh duh
lqvwlwxwlrqv wkdw fdq hqirufh frqwudfwv ehwzhhq qrq0ryhuodsslqj jhqhudwlrqv1
Jryhuqphqw lv rqh vxfk lqvwlwxwlrq1 Pdq| glhuhqw nlqgv ri hqwhusulvhv dqg
frusrudwh hqwlwlhv/ wkdw kdyh ohjdo shuvrqdolw| dqg duh fdsdeoh ri hqwhulqj lqwr
frqwudfwv/ duh qrw wlhg/ dv uhjdugv wkh gxudwlrq ri wkhvh frqwudfwv e| wkh olih0
vsdq ri wkh fxuuhqw rzqhuv ru pdqdjhuv ri wkh up1 Lw lv/ krzhyhu/ lpsruwdqw
wr qrwh wkdw hyhq zlwkrxw lqvwlwxwlrqv wkdw fdq eulgjh wkh frqwudfwxdo fkdvp
ehwzhhq qrq0ryhuodsslqj jhqhudwlrqv/ wkh lqfrpsohwh pdunhw sduwlflsdwlrq
sureohp jhwv ohvv dfxwh zkhq pruh jhqhudwlrqv ryhuods1
duh
S| n | n | n j | e|
+44187,
+44188,
+44189,
| f
+4418:,
Wkh ordq pdunhw lq dq| jlyhq shulrg/ |c qrz kdv wkh |rxqj/ wkh plggoh0
djhg dqg wkh rog sduwlflsdwlqj lq lw1 Fohduo|/ wkh |rxqj fdq hqwhu lqwr frq0
wudfwv zlwk wkh plggoh0djhg/ vlqfh erwk zloo eh durxqg wkh qh{w shulrg wr
vhuylfh wkh ordq1
Ljqrulqj fruqhu vroxwlrqv/ ordq pdunhw htxloleulxp lv fkdudfwhulvhg e|
| | n 2|3 |3 n |32 |32 ' f
+4418;,
+4418<,
441418
55:
iurp wkh rog/ sd|lqj wkh rog d uhqwdo udwh 4 shu xqlw ri fdslwdo1 Wkh zdjh
udwh lv Wkhlu zloo eh qr gluhfw lqwhujhqhudwlrqdo ohqglqj ehwzhhq wkh jhq0
hudwlrqv/ iru wkh idploldu uhdvrqv1 Li wkhuh zhuh dq| khwhurjhqhlw| dprqj wkh
|rxqj/ wkhuh frxog eh ohqglqj dqg eruurzlqj dprqj wkhp1 Lq d frpshwlwlyh
hfrqrp|/ wkh uhqwdo udwh ri fdslwdo vhuylfhv lv wkh pdujlqdo surgxfw ri fdslwdo
dqg wkh zdjh udwh htxdov wkh pdujlqdo surgxfw ri oderxu1 Vdylqj +glvsrvdeoh
lqfrph plqxv frqvxpswlrq, e| wkh |rxqj fdq hlwkhu eh doorfdwhg wr wkh df0
fxpxodwlrq ri uhdo fdslwdo +wr eh ohdvhg qh{w shulrg wr wkh qh{w jhqhudwlrq,
ru wr jryhuqphqw ghew1 Wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh htxdov wkh pdujlqdo surgxfw
ri fdslwdo1 Vdylqj e| jhqhudwlrq | zkhq |rxqj lv ghqrwhg r| c dqg vdylqj e|
jhqhudwlrq | zkhq rog lv ghqrwhg r2| Uhdo fdslwdo fduulhg iruzdug e| d |rxqj
_
krxvhkrog lq shulrg | lv ghqrwhg &|c|n
dqg jryhuqphqw ghew fduulhg iruzdug
_
lv ghqrwhg _|c|n Wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqwv ri d krxvhkrog ri jhqhudwlrq | dqg
wkh vdylqj ghqlwlrqv duh jlyhq lq htxdwlrqv 44193 wr 44195
_
n __||n
| | S| r| ' &||n
+44193,
_
S2| n 2| E n 4|n &|c|n
n E n o|n __|c|n
+44194,
_
r2| 4|n &|c|n
n o|n __|c|n 2| S2|
+44195,
r| n r2| ' f
+44196,
+44197,
Qrwh wkdw
2|
S2|
' S| n
n o|n
n o|n
+44198,
2
Djjuhjdwh sulydwh vdylqj lq shulrg |c 7| 7| n 7|3
Jryhuqphqw vdylqj lq shulrg |c 7|C
Djjuhjdwh qdwlrqdo vdylqj lq shulrg |c 7| 7| n 7|C
Qrwh wkdw djjuhjdwh sulydwh vdylqj fdq eh zulwwhq dv iroorzv=
7| ' | r| |3 r|3
' | Er| r|3 n E| |3 r|3
' | Er| r|3 n ?| |3 r|3
+44199,
Djjuhjdwh sulydwh vdylqj lqfuhdvhv hlwkhu ehfdxvh wkh |rxqj duh vdylqj
pruh wkdq wkh rog duh glvvdylqj ru ehfdxvh wkhuh duh pruh |rxqj wkdq rog1
Lq d vwhdg| vwdwh zlwkrxw jurzwk +ri srsxodwlrq dqg surgxfwlylw|,/ wrwdo
sulydwh vdylqj zloo wkhuhiruh eh }hur1 Sulydwh qdqfldo zhdowk/ c fdq ydu|/
krzhyhu/ hyhq li vwhdg| vwdwh vdylqj grhv qrw1 Wkh sulydwh zhdowk khog dw wkh
hqg ri shulrg | +wkh ehjlqqlqj ri shulrg | n c |n c htxdov wkh vdylqj ri wkh
|rxqj gxulqj shulrg |
|n ' r| |
+4419:,
+4419;,
Qrwh wkdw 4419: dqg 4419; duh htxlydohqw wr wkh idploldu jrrgv pdunhw
htxloleulxp frqglwlrq +C lv wkh yroxph ri sxeolf frqvxpswlrq vshqglqj,=
g|n g| n S| | n S2|3 |3 n C| ' | | n 4| g|
Frpshwlwlyh krxvhkrogv wdnh wkh zdjh udwh/ lqwhuhvw udwh dqg fdslwdo uhqwdo
udwh dv jlyhq1 Wkh| dovr wdnh wd{hv dv jlyhq1 Krxvhkrogv pd{lpl}h wkh xwlolw|
ixqfwlrq 4419 vxemhfw wr wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqwv 44193 dqg 44194 dqg lpsrvlqj
441971
Wkh lqwhulru uvw0rughu frqglwlrq lv djdlq=
3 n o|n 2 3
S|
S|
'
nB
+4419<,
55<
'
S2|
# |
'
| |
# 2|
2|
n o|n
| |
+441:3,
2|
n o|n
+441:4,
Eno|n
'
3
nEnB3
Eno
|n
' nB
2nB
# 2|
'
'
3
li '
3
EnB
Eno|n
3
|n
Eno
no|n
2nB
+441:5,
3
nEnB
li '
+441:6,
# 2|
n o|n
+441:7,
dE n oon E n Bo3
Y#|
'
k
l
3
2
YE n oon
E n o|n n E n B3
Wkhuhiruh wkh pdujlqdo +dqg dyhudjh, surshqvlw| wr frqvxph rxw ri zhdowk
lqfuhdvhv +ghfuhdvhv, zkhq wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lqfuhdvhv li dqg rqo| li :
E Wkxv d kljkhu uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh errvwv wkh krxvhkrog surshqvlw| wr
vdyh zkhq |rxqj li dqg rqo| li wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo vxevwlwxwlrq hodvwlflw|/ 3 c
h{fhhgv
Qrwh wkdw wkh krxvhkrog*v rswlpdo frqvxpswlrq surjudpph pdnhv vhqvh
rqo| li wkh jryhuqphqw*v vfdo srolf| lv qrw vr h{wudydjdqw dv wr sxvk wkh
sulydwh vhfwru lqwr qhjdwlyh frqvxpswlrq/ wkdw lv/ zh dvvxph
| |
2|
: f
n o|n
+441:8,
+441:9,
k
l
| ' .| s E&| &| s E&|
+441::,
+441:;,
+441:<,
Zh ghqh wkh iroorzlqj vwrfnv dqg rzv shu xqlw ri h!flhqf| oderxu=
(|n
_|n .|n
|n
|n
@
|n .|n
|n
}| .C| | |
| . ||
2
2| . ||
564
2|3
E n 0| E n ?|
+441;3,
r|
| | S|
'
.|
.|
ru
E n 0|n E n ?|n E_|n n#&|n
' s E&| &| s E&| |
Ens E&|n
Ens E&|n
3
3
nEnB3
$
2|
Ens E&|n
Fkdswhu 45
Sulydwh Lqyhvwphqw
4514
Il{hg Lqyhvwphqw
Lqyhvwphqw lv dq| dfwlylw| lqyroylqj frvwv dqg uhwxuqv wkdw duh qrw shuihfwo|
v|qfkurqlvhg lq d vlqjoh shulrg1 Pdq| h{dpsohv lqyroyh fxuuhqw frvwv dqg
ixwxuh uhwxuqv/ exw hyhq h{shfwhg qhw uhwxuqv +uhwxuqv qhw ri frvwv, frxog
ydu| ryhu wlph lq d ydulhw| ri zd|v1 Vrphwlphv wkh frvwv duh ixoo| vxqn/
wkdw lv/ luuhfryhudeoh1 Dw rwkhu wlphv wkh lqlwldo rxwod|v fdq eh uhfrxshg
wr d juhdwhu ru ohvvhu h{whqw/ vd| wkurxjk wkh vdoh ri vhfrqg0kdqg fdslwdo
htxlsphqw1 Il{hg lqyhvwphqw lv wkh xvh ri uhdo uhvrxufhv wr dgg wr wkh {hg
fdslwdo vwrfn/ sodqw/ vwuxfwxuhv/ htxlsphqw hwf1 Il{hg lqyhvwphqw fdq lqyroyh
*zhljkwohvv* ru lqwdqjleoh jrrgv/ h1j1 wkh sxufkdvh ri exvlqhvv vriwzduh1 Dv
orqj dv d fdslwdo jrrg kdv dq hfrqrplf olih eh|rqg wkh fxuuhqw dffrxqwlqj
shulrg/ dgglqj wr wkh vwrfn ri wkdw fdslwdo jrrg frqvwlwxwhv {hg lqyhvwphqw1
Krxvhkrogv hqjdjh lq {hg lqyhvwphqw zkhq wkh| dgg wr wkh vwrfn ri frq0
vxphu gxudeohv1 Wklv lv qrw frxqwhg dv lqyhvwphqw lq wkh qdwlrqdo lqfrph
dffrxqwv1 Krxvhkrogv dovr dgg wr wkh vwrfn ri kxpdq fdslwdo wkurxjk hgx0
fdwlrq/ wudlqlqj dqg rwkhu irupv ri ohduqlqj1 Wklv wrr lv qrw fdswxuhg e| wkh
qdwlrqdo dffrxqwv ghqlwlrq ri lqyhvwphqw1
4515
Lqyhqwru| Lqyhvwphqw
Lqyhqwru| lqyhvwphqw lqyroyhv fkdqjhv lq wkh vwrfn ri udz pdwhuldov dqg lq0
whuphgldwh lqsxwv khog hlwkhu dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh surgxfwlrq fkdlq/ ru
lq wkh surgxfwlrq fkdlq +jrrgv lq surfhvv,/ dv zhoo dv fkdqjhv lq wkh vwrfn
ri qlvkhg jrrgv1 Lqyhqwrulhv fdq eh khog e| surgxfhuv/ zkrohvdohuv/ uhwdlo0
huv ru krxvhkrogv1 Krxvhkrog lqyhqwru| dffxpxodwlrq +fkdqjhv lq zkdw zh
kdyh lq wkh iulgjh dqg rq wkh nlwfkhq vkhoyhv, lv qrw frxqwhg dv lqyhqwru|
566
567
4516
451614
Ur
|
E_
ErEruErs
g
- ErgEr
gEr
` EruEr
uEr
2
2 EUEr3BgEr
gEr
6
8 +4515,
nbErdUEr
BgEro
lv wkh fr0vwdwh yduldeoh ri wkh fdslwdo vwrfn/ ru lwv +suhvhqw glv0
zkhuh b
lv wkh vkdgrz sulfh ri lqvwdoohg
frxqwhg ydoxh, vkdgrz sulfh1 Qrwh wkdw bE|
fdslwdo dw wlph |c zkhq wkh up grhv qrw rzq wkh lqvwdoohg fdslwdo1
568
Y MEr
'f
YuEr
+4516,
Y MEr
'f
YUEr
+4517,
Y MEr
_bEr
'
YgEr
_r
+4518,
+4519,
dqg wkh frqglwlrq wkdw wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri wkh glvfrxqwhg fdslwdo
vwrfn lq wkh lqqlwh glvwdqw ixwxuh eh }hur
*4 bErgEr
'f
+451:,
r<"
Ohw ^Er eh wkh fxuuhqw ydoxh vkdgrz sulfh ri fdslwdo iru d up wkdw grhv qrw
rzq lwv fdslwdo/ wkdw lv/
Ur
^Er ' bEre
E_
+451;,
Wkhvh lpso|
gEr
gEr gEr
` Er
Er s
s
'
uEr
uEr
uEr
Er
+451<,
gEr
' UEr BgEr ' ^ErgEr
+45143,
_
^ Er
' Er
^ Er ^Er2 n -g Er ErErs
_r
2
gEr
uEr
+45144,
569
"
e3
Ur
|
E_
2
gEr
o_r
2 gEr
+45145,
Lwv Kdplowrqldq lv
5
MEr ' e3
Ur
|
E_
EruErErs
ErUEr
gEr
` EruEr
uEr
2
dUEr3BgEro
2
gEr
6
8 +45146,
nbErdUEr BgEro
Wkh erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv iru wklv fdvh duh
7
gE| ' gE|
+45147,
+45148,
r<"
gEr
' UEr BgEr ' d^Er g ErogEr
_^Er
' Er^Er n B g Er ErErs
_r
gEr
uEr
+45149,
d^Er g Ero2
2
+4514:,
56:
^ ' ^ g
+4514;,
g
-g
B
n
'
g
g
+4514<,
YT E|
YgE|
+45153,
T E|
gE|
+45154,
Zkhq erwk wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq dqg wkh lqvwdoodwlrq frvw ixqfwlrq duh
olqhdu krprjhqhrxv/ lw vr kdsshqv +fkhfn wklv$, wkdw Wrelq*v pdujlqdo ^ lv
wkh vdph dv Wrelq*v dyhudjh ^
Zkhq wkhuh duh qr lqwhuqdo dgmxvwphqw frvwv/ wkh fdslwdo vwrfn dgmxvwv
lqvwdqwdqhrxvo| wr htxdwh wkh pdujlqdo surgxfw ri fdslwdo/ dw doo wlphv/ wr lwv
frpshwlwlyh uhqwdo udwh1 Wkdw lv/ zkhq ' fc
^ ' g
+45155,
^ ' f
+45156,
ru
56;
dqg
s
g
u
' -g
+45157,
g ' E^ g
^ ' ^
E^ 2 n B k
2
+45159,
+4515:,
Iru wkhuh wr h{lvw d vwhdg| vwdwh zlwk ^ ' c lw pxvw eh wkh fdvh/ wkdw wkh
wkuhh h{rjhqrxv sdudphwhuv/ c k dqg B/ vdwlvi| wkh iroorzlqj uhodwlrqvkls=
kB '
+4515;,
' E^ E^ 2
_|
2
+4515<,
Wklv xqlyduldwh v|vwhp kdv wzr vwhdg| vwdwhv/ ^ ' dqg ^ ' n 2 Wkh
^ ' vwhdg| vwdwh lv xqvwdeoh/ wkh ^ ' n 2 vwhdg| vwdwh lv orfdoo| vwdeoh1
Wklv lv vkrzq lq Iljxuh 45141 L dvvxph wkdw : f
56<
g ' E^ g
^ ' ^
4
+45163,
E^ 2 n B kf n k g
2
5
+45164,
573
g'
kf B
k
+45165,
s
E2 n 2d Ekf B k go
ru
^
g
^
g
kf 3B37=
k
k
f
7
g
^73
7=
7=
&
^73
^ ^7
7
g g
^ ^7
7
gg
n
n
^7
f
d 7=o
+45166,
d 7=o
+45167,
7 : fc
Zh dvvxph 7= : fc vr wkh ^ ' f orfxv lv grzqzdug0vorslqj1 Vlqfh g
wkh htxloleulxp lv d vdggohsrlqw1
Iljxuh 4517 khuh
Dq xqdqwlflsdwhg lpphgldwh shupdqhqw lqfuhdvh lq wkh udwh ri lqwhuhvw
fdxvhv dq lpphgldwh gurs lq ^ iurp lf wr lf Iurp wkhuh rq wkh v|vwhp
wudyhov vprrwko| dorqj wkh frqyhujhqw vdggohsdwk wkurxjk l wr wkh qhz
vwhdg| vwdwh1
451615
574
E| '
"
e3
Ur
|
dEnBo_
g
- ' s
g
u
-g Er_r
+45168,
+45169,
g ' j f n j EU Bg
jfc j : f
+4516:,
g ' U Bg
+4516;,
Wkh vxsso| fxuyh ri wkh fdslwdo jrrgv surgxflqj lqgxvwulhv lv 4516:1 Dv0
vxph djdlq wkdw hpsor|phqw lv jlyhq h{rjhqrxvo| dw u ' c wkdw ' '
dqg wkdw s Eg ' kf k gc kf c k : f
Zh jhw wkh iroorzlqj g|qdplf v|vwhp iru wkh fdslwdo vwrfn dqg wkh sulfh
ri fdslwdo
g ' E g j f
j
+4516<,
g ' E n B g kf n k g
+45173,
g
g
7= n B k
f
j
g
g
n
kf
jjf
+45174,
575
Frqvlghu wkh vshfldo fdvh zkhuh shrsoh kdyh vwdwlf h{shfwdwlrqv1 Lq wklv
fdvh/
g '
kf k g
nB
+45175,
-g ' E Ekf k g
kf c k : f( f
+45177,
+45178,
g ' j f n j EU Bg
jfc j : f
+45179,
g ' U Bg
+4517:,
+L, Dqdo|vh wkh hhfw rq wkh fdslwdo vwrfn dqg rq wkh sulfh ri fdslwdo
ri wkh xqh{shfwhg dqqrxqfhphqw/ dw | ' |f c ri dq lpphgldwh/ shupdqhqw
lqfuhdvh lq wkh wd{ udwh rq surwv1
576
+LL,Dqdo|vh wkh hhfw rq wkh fdslwdo vwrfn dqg rq wkh sulfh ri fdslwdo ri
wkh xqh{shfwhg dqqrxqfhphqw/ dw | ' |f c ri d ixwxuh shupdqhqw lqfuhdvh lq
wkh wd{ udwh rq surwv/ vwduwlqj dw | : |f 1
Wkh wzr lqyhvwphqw prghov frqvlghuhg wkxv idu kdg frqyh{ surgxfwlrq
whfkqrorjlhv dqg frqyh{ frvwv ri dgmxvwlqj wkh fdslwdo vwrfn +frvwv wkdw lq0
fuhdvh pruh wkdq olqhduo| zlwk wkh udwh ri lqyhvwphqw,1 Wkh uhvxow lv/ qrw
vxusulvlqjo|/ wkdw lqyhvwphqw lv *vprrwkhg rxw*1 Lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq/ L zloo
frqvlghu rswlpdo lqyhvwphqw zkhq wkh frvw ri dgmxvwlqj wkh fdslwdo vwrfn lv
*oxps|*1 Wkhuh duh {hg/ dqg vxqn +wkdw lv/ luuhfryhudeoh, frvwv ri h{sdqglqj
ru frqwudfwlqj wkh fdslwdo vwrfn1 Djdlq xqvxusulvlqjo|/ vxfk d whfkqrorj|
ohdgv wr lqyhvwphqw ehlqj exqfkhg/ udwkhu wkdq vprrwkhg rxw1 Zkhq xqfhu0
wdlqw| lv wkurzq lqwr wkh srw/ lqwhuhvwlqj lqwhusuhwdwlrqv ri rswlpdo lqyhvw0
phqw uxohv/ lqyroylqj rswlrq sulflqj/ fdq eh pdgh1
451616
Wkh pdwhuldo iru wklv vxevhfwlrq lv vwudljkw iurp Deho/ Gl{lw/ Hehuo| dqg
Slqg|fn ^4<<8` ^4` +vhh dovr ^45`,1 Frqvlghu d up wkdw kdv d wzr0shulrg
krul}rq1 Lq shulrg wkh up ex|v fdslwdo/ g fc dw d sulfh K : f shu xqlw
ri fdslwdo1 Wkh jurvv rshudwlqj uhwxuq lq shulrg lv nqrzq dqg jlyhq e|
oEg c zklfk lv srvlwlyh/ vwulfwo| lqfuhdvlqj/ vwulfwo| frqfdyh lq g dqg wzlfh
frqwlqxrxvo| glhuhqwldeoh11 Fdslwdo grhv qrw ghsuhfldwh1
Lq shulrg 2/ wkh up fdq rshudwh wkh vdph ohyho ri fdslwdo dv lq shulrg
+wkdw lv/ g2 ' g c qhlwkhu ex|lqj qru vhoolqj fdslwdo lq shulrg 2 Lw fdq
dovr fkrrvh wr rshudwh d vpdoohu fdslwdo vwrfn lq shulrg 2 wkdq lq shulrg
Li lw fkrrvhv wr gr vr/ lw kdv wr vhoo lwv *h{fhvv fdslwdo* lq shulrg 2 dw d sulfh
Ku Li Ku E n oKc zkhuh o lv wkh udwh ri lqwhuhvw/ uhyhuvlqj wkh shulrg
lqyhvwphqw lv frvwo|1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wklv frqglwlrq krogv1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkh
up fdq fkrrvh wr rshudwh d odujhu fdslwdo vwrfn lq shulrg 2 wkdq lq shulrg
Lq wkdw fdvh lw kdv wr sxufkdvh wkh dgglwlrqdo fdslwdo lq shulrg 2 dw d sulfh
KM Li KM : E n oKc h{sdqglqj wkh fdslwdo vwrfn lq shulrg 2 lv frvwo|1 Zh
dvvxph wkdw wklv frqglwlrq krogv1 Qrwh wkdw wkhuhiruh/ KM : Ku
Wkh jurvv uhwxuq wr rshudwlqj wkh fdslwdo vwrfn lq shulrg 2 lv -Eg2 c 0c
zkhuh 0 lv udqgrp1 Dq lqfuhdvh lq 0 uhsuhvhqwv *jrrg qhzv* wr wkh up1
Wklqn ri lw dv d srvlwlyh surgxfwlylw| vkrfn ru d srvlwlyh vkrfn wr lwv sulfh1
Wkh jurvv pdujlqdo surgxfw ri fdslwdo lq shulrg 2c -g Eg2 c 0 f lv wzlfh
frqwlqxrxvo| glhuhqwldeoh/ vwulfwo| ghfuhdvlqj lq gc dqg vwulfwo| lqfuhdvlqj
lq 0c wkdw lv/ -gg f dqg -g0 : f
Wkh up lv ulvn0qhxwudo dqg pd{lplvhv wkh h{shfwhg suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg
577
ydoxh ri fxuuhqw dqg h{shfwhg ixwxuh surwv1 Ohw T Eg ghqrwh wkh h{shfwhg
suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri surwv lq shulrgv dqg 2c zkhq wkh up kdv d
fdslwdo vwrfn g lq shulrg Wkhq wkh shulrg ghflvlrq sureohp ri wkh up
lv
4@ iT Eg Kg j
g
+4517;,
Zh zloo qrz dqdo|vh krz xqfhuwdlqw| derxw wkh ixwxuh uhwxuqv wr lqyhvw0
phqw dhfwv wkh shulrg lqyhvwphqw ghflvlrq ri wkh up1
Zh vwduw e| ghqlqj wzr fulwlfdo ydoxhv/ 0u dqg 0M c ri wkh h{rjhqrxv
surwdelolw| vkrfn/ 0
-g Eg c 0u ' Ku
+4517<,
-g Eg c 0M ' KM
+45183,
+45184,
Li 0 0u c wkh up zloo vhoo fdslwdo xqwlo wkh pdujlqdo surgxfw ri fdslwdo
lq shulrg 2 htxdov lwv shulrg 2 vdoh sulfh/ wkdw lv/ xqwlo
-g Eg2 E0c 0 ' Ku
+45185,
+45186,
Wklv phdqv wkdw wkhuh lv d *}rqh ri lqdfwlrq*= iru vrph lqwhuphgldwh udqjh
ri ydoxhv ri wkh surwdelolw| vkrfn/ wkh up zloo qhlwkhu frqwudfw qru h{sdqg1
Wkh }rqh ri lqdfwlrq lv looxvwudwhg lq Iljxuh 45191
578
+45187,
<
; U 0u
d- Eg2 E0c 0 n Ku Eg g2 E0o _8 E0 @
?
3"
U
0
n U0uM - Eg c 0 _8 E0
n
>
no =
"
n 0M d- Eg2 E0c 0 n KM Eg g2 E0o _8 E0
T Eg ' o Eg n
no
]
Ku 8 E0u n
0M
0u
-g Eg c 0 _8 E0 n KM d 8 E0M o ' K
+45188,
T Eg
K
+45189,
T Eg
Kg
+4518:,
579
"
3"
+4518;,
^ Eg ' T Eg ' o Eg n
no
0M
0u
-gg Eg c 0 _8 E0 f
+4518<,
' f
YK
^
+45193,
8 E0u
Yg
'
:f
YKu
no
^
+45194,
Yg
d 8 E0M o
'
:f
YKM
no
^
+45195,
57:
Eg
Eg
no
no
+45196,
zkhuh
Eg '
U 0u
3"
U"
0M
]
"
3"
- Eg c 0 _8 E0
+45197,
57;
Eg
Eg ' K
no
no
+4519:,
zkhuh
Eg ' o Eg n
no
]
"
3"
-g Eg c 0 _8 E0
+4519;,
U 0u
dK -g Eg c 0o _8 E0
Eg '
3" u
' . i4@ dKu -g Eg c 0 c foj
+4519<d,
+4519<e,
U"
d-g Eg c 0 KM o _8 E0
Eg '
0M
' . i4@ d-g Eg c 0 KM c fj
+451:3,
+451:4,
+451:5,
REg
SEg ' K
no
no
57<
+451:6,
Zh fdq hdvlo| ghulyh wkh lpsdfw ri fkdqjhv lq wkh sxufkdvh sulfh ri shulrg 2
fdslwdo rq S dqg ri fkdqjhv lq wkh vdoh sulfh ri shulrg 2 fdslwdo rq R
YS
' d 8 E0M o f
YKM
YR
' 8 E0u o f
YKu
Lqyhvwphqw dqg xqfhuwdlqw| derxw ixwxuh uhwxuqv
D *ehwwhu* uhwxuq glvwulexwlrq Zh frpsduh wzr uhwxuq glvwulexwlrqv/
8 E0 dqg ME0 Iluvwc 8 lv dvvxphg wr *uvw0rughu* grplqdwh M Zkdw wklv
phdqv lv wkh iroorzlqj +vhh ^4` Kluvkohlihu dqg Uloh| ^4<<5`/ ss1 438044:1,1
Zh dvvxph doo glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrqv duh glhuhqwldeoh dw ohdvw rqh pruh wlph
wkdq zh qhhg1
Ghqlwlrq 6 Iluvw0rughu vwrfkdvwlf grplqdqfh
Li/ iru doo ec 8 Ee MEe dqg wkh lqhtxdolw| lv vwulfw iru vrph lqwhuydo/
wkhq wkh glvwulexwlrq 8 h{klelwv uvw0rughu vwrfkdvwlf grplqdqfh ryhu M
Wkxv/ lq Iljxuh 451:/ 8 dqg a uvw0rughu vwrfkdvwlfdoo| grplqdwh M c exw
8 grhv qrw uvw0rughu vwrfkdvwlfdoo| grplqdwh a ru ylfh0yhuvd1
Iljxuh 451: khuh
Wklv ghqlwlrq ohdgv lpphgldwho| wr wkh iroorzlqj wkhruhp=
Wkhruhp 7 Udqnlqj Wkhruhp 4
Iru doo lqfuhdvlqj/ slhfhzlvh glhuhqwldeoh ixqfwlrqv %Eec li 8 h{klelwv
uvw0rughu vwrfkdvwlf grplqdqfh ryhu Mc wkhq .8 i%Eej : .M i%Eej
Ohw eh wkh khdy| olqh ixqfwlrq lq Iljxuh 4519/ wkdw lv/
Eg c 0 ' Ku
li 0 0u
' -g Eg c 0
li 0u 0 0M
' KM
li 0 : 0M
583
Lw iroorzv wkdw
^Eg ' o Eg n
no
]
"
3"
Eg c 0 _8 E0
]
8 E0_0
ME0_0
zlwk wkh lqhtxdolw| kroglqj vwulfwo| ryhu vrph sduw ri wkh udqjh/ wkhq wkh
glvwulexwlrq 8 h{klelwv vhfrqg0rughu vwrfkdvwlf grplqdqfh ryhu M
Jhrphwulfdoo|/ 8 lv vhfrqg0rughu grplqdqw ryhu M li/ ryhu hyhu| lqwhuydo
d@c eo wkh duhd xqghu 8 Ee lv qhyhu juhdwhu +dqg vrphwlphv vpdoohu, wkdq wkh
fruuhvsrqglqj duhd xqghu MEe Lq whupv ri Iljxuh 451:/ wklv zrxog uhtxluh
wkh krul}rqwdoo| vkdghg duhd wr eh odujhu wkdq wkh yhuwlfdoo| vkdghg duhd1
584
?Eg ' o Eg n
no
]
"
3"
-g Eg c 0 _8 E0
+451:7,
+451:8,
Jhrphwulfdoo|/ wklv phdqv wkdw wkh olqh vhjphqw mrlqlqj dq| wzr srlqwv
rq wkh fxuyh %2 ' }E% grhv qrw idoo ehorz wkh fxuyh dq|zkhuh ehwzhhq
wkrvh wzr srlqwv1 Wkh ixqfwlrq } lv vwulfwo| frqyh{ rq E@c K li vwulfw htxdolw|
585
krogv lq wkh uhodwlrq 451:8 iru hyhu| sdlu ri glvwlqfw srlqwv % dqg %2 lq E@c K
Jhrphwulfdoo|/ wklv phdqv wkdw wkh ixqfwlrq } lv frqyh{ dqg wkdw wkh fxuyh
%2 ' }E% fdqqrw frqwdlq dq| olqhdu vhjphqwv1 D ixqfwlrq } lv +vwulfwo|,
frqfdyh rq E@c K li wkh qhjdwlyh ri } lv +vwulfwo|, frqyh{ rq E@c K Lq Iljxuh
451;/ wkh uvw ixqfwlrq lv vwulfwo| frqyh{ dqg wkh vhfrqg ixqfwlrq lv frqyh{
exw qrw vwulfwo| frqyh{/ ehfdxvh lw frqwdlqv olqhdu vhjphqwv1
Pruh jhqhudoo|/
Ohw } eh d frqyh{ ixqfwlrq/ wkhq/ iru dq| % c c %?
# ?
[
$
> %
# ?
[
'
> f(
$
> }E%
'
?
[
+451:9,
> '
'
+451::,
586
xqlw ri fdslwdo lv sxufkdvhg lq shulrg dqg wkh fdoo rswlrq wkdw lv h{wlqjxlvkhg
e| wkh sxufkdvh ri fdslwdo lq shulrg zrxog wkhuhiruh eh h{shfwhg wr lqfuhdvh
zlwk dq lqfuhdvh lq xqfhuwdlqw|1 Wkh qhw hhfw rq wkh lqfhqwlyh wr lqyhvw lq
shulrg zrxog eh srvlwlyh li wkh ydoxh ri wkh sxw rswlrq zhuh wr lqfuhdvh
pruh wkdq wkh ydoxh ri wkh fdoo rswlrq/ wkdw lv/ li wkh lqfuhdvh lq xqfhuwdlqw|
lv frqfhqwudwhg lq wkh orzhu wdlo udwkhu wkdq lq wkh xsshu wdlo1
REg '
SEg '
U 0u
+451:;d,
d-g Eg c 0 KM o _8 E0
+451:<,
3"
U"
0M
Iljxuh 451< looxvwudwhv wkh sulqflsohv dw zrun1 Ohw % ' -g Eg c 0 ' 4E0
eh wkh pdujlqdo uhyhqxh surgxfw ri fdslwdo lq shulrg 2c +zlwk wkh {hg shulrg
fdslwdo vwrfn,/ dqg ohw xE% eh wkh fxpxodwlyh glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq ri %
Wkh ghqvlw| ixqfwlrq ri %c )E% ' _xE% lv lqgxfhg e| wkh ghqvlw| ixqfwlrq
ri 0c sE0 ' _8 E0 dv iroorzv=
Ohw 0 eh d frqwlqxrxv udqgrp yduldeoh kdylqj ghqvlw| s E0c ghqhg rq
wkh lqwhuydo U ' E4c 4 Ohw 4 eh d glhuhqwldeoh vwulfwo| lqfuhdvlqj5 ru
vwulfwo| ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq rq wkh lqwhuydo U dqg ohw 4EU ghqrwh wkh udqjh ri
4 dqg 43 wkh lqyhuvh ixqfwlrq wr 4Wkhq % ' -g Eg c 0 ' 4E0 kdv ghqvlw|
) jlyhq e|
_%
)E% ' s E0
_0
% 5 4EU
0 ' 43 E%
Qrwh wkdw
REg
0u
Ku
Lq idfw/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkh pdujlqdo uhyhqxh surgxfw ri fdslwdo lv frqwlqxrxv dqg
vwulfwo| lqfuhdvlqj lq %= Zh dovr dvvxphg UN +N4 > %, 3> +dqg wkdw lw lv vwulfwo| ghfuhdvlqj
dqg frqwlqxrxv lq N> wzr surshuwlhv wkdw gr qrw pdwwhu khuh/ vlqfh N4 lv {hg,1
6
Xvlqj lqwhjudwlrq e| sduwv=
] e
] e
e
{4 g{5 @ {4 {5 md
{5 g{4
d
587
dqg
]
SEg
"
"
KM
Fkdswhu 46
Prqh|
588
589
Fkdswhu 47
D Ehqfkpdun iru Prqhwdu|
Srolf|
Wkh frqfhsw ri d qhxwudo prqhwdu| srolf|/ dqg ri d qhxwudo vkruw0whup qrp0
lqdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv dq lqwuljxlqj rqh1
58:
58;
Eleolrjudsk|
^4` Deho/ Dqguhz E1/ Dylqdvk N1 Gl{lw/ Mdqlfh F1 Hehuo| dqg Urehuw V1
Slqg|fn ^4<<8`/ Rswlrqv/ wkh ydoxh ri fdslwdo/ dqg lqyhvwphqw/ QEHU
Zrunlqj Sdshu Vhulhv Qr1 855:/ Dxjxvw1
^5` Rolylhu M1 Eodqfkdug ^4<;4`/ Rxwsxw/ wkh vwrfn pdunhw dqg lqwhuhvw
udwhv/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ Pdufk1
^6` Rolylhu M1 Eodqfkdug dqg Vwdqoh| Ilvfkhu ^4<;<`/ Ohfwxuhv rq Pdfurhfr0
qrplfv/ PLW Suhvv1
^7` Rolylhu Eodqfkdug dqg Oduu| Vxpphuv ^4<;9`/ K|vwhuhvlv dqg wkh Hx0
urshdq Xqhpsor|phqw Sureohp/ QEHU Pdfurhfrqrplfv Dqqxdo/ Yro
4/ Fdpeulgjh PD/ PLW Suhvv1
^8` Rolylhu Eodqfkdug dqg Qrex Nl|rwdnl ^4<;:`/ Prqrsrolvwlf Frpshwl0
wlrq dqg wkh Hhfwv ri Djjuhjdwh Ghpdqg/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uh0
ylhz/ ::+7,/ ss1 97:09991
^9` Dodq V1 Eolqghu ^4<;:`/ Fuhglw Udwlrqlqj dqg Hhfwlyh Vxsso| Idloxuhv/
Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo/ ss1 65:06851
^:` Dodq1V1 Eolqghu dqg Urehuw P1 Vrorz ^4<:6`/ Grhv Ilvfdo Srolf| Pdw0
whu/ Mrxuqdo ri Sxeolf Hfrqrplfv/ Qryhpehu1
^;` Zloohp K1 Exlwhu dqg Zlooldp K1 Eudqvrq ^4<;6`/ Prqhwdu| dqg Ilvfdo
Srolf| zlwk Ioh{leoh H{fkdqjh Udwhv/ lq Zloohp K1 Exlwhu/ Lqwhuqd0
wlrqdo Pdfurhfrqrplfv/ R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 4<<31
^<` Zloohp K1 Exlwhu dqg Pdufxv K1 Ploohu ^4<;4`/ Prqhwdu| srolf| dqg
lqwhuqdwlrqdo frpshwlwlyhqhvv/ R{irug Hfrqrplf Sdshuv/ Vxssohphqw/
Mxo| 4<;4/ ss1 47604:81
^43` Zloohp K1 Exlwhu ^4<;:`/ D Ilvfdo Wkhru| ri K|shugh dwlrqv> Vrph
Vxusulvlqj Prqhwdulvw Dulwkphwlf/ R{irug Hfrqrplf Sdshuv/ 6</ ss1
58<
593
ELEOLRJUDSK\
444044;/ uhsulqwhg lq Zloohp K1 Exlwhu ^4<<3`/ Sulqflsohv ri Exgjhwdu|
dqg Ilqdqfldo Srolf|/ PLW Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh PD/ ss1 68<09:1
ELEOLRJUDSK\
594