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Summer Internship Program

Project Proposal
1. Project Proposed:
S&P BSE Oil & Gas Index-Stocks Valuation and Performance of Index & Analyse the movement of USDINR pair in Currency Market and forecast its price movements.
2. Description of Project in brief:
Financial services are vital tools of machinery for economy and they lubricate the wheels of economic
development. Once the economy crosses the subsistence level, financial services become more prominent and
important to that economy.
Financial services in current days are emerging as a crucial industry world over and are termed as a sun rise
industry.
The India Infoline group were founded in 1995 by Mr. Nirmal Jain (Chairman and Managing Director) as an
independent business research and information provider. Then gradually evolved into a one-stop financial
services solutions provider.
The India Infoline group, comprising the holding company, India Infoline limited and its wholly-owned
subsidiaries, straddle the entire financial services space with offerings ranging from equity research, equities
and derivatives trading, commodities trading, portfolio management services, mutual funds, life insurance,
fixed deposits, gold bonds and other small savings instruments to loan products and investment banking.
India Infoline also owns and manages the websites www.indiainfoline.com and www.5paisa.com the company
has a network of over 2100 business locations (branches and sub-brokers) spread across more than 450 cities
and towns. the group caters to approximately a million customers.
As an intern in IIFL, I have been assigned a project which spans my work to areas of research on Oil and Gas
sector.
Primary Objective 1:
S&P BSE Oil & Gas Index-Stocks Valuation and Performance of Index.
Stock markets across the globe take the privilege of having a large number of indices on shares across various
compositions & combinations of industry and economic sectors.
Indian oil & gas sector has seen an eventful FY13 with hoards of announcements by companies and plenty of
changes accorded by the government.
While some companies have gained out of these, there are few who have borne the pain as well. External
factors such as crude price movements, exchange rate fluctuations, sanctions on Iran, Euro Zone debt
crisis and many more have played their part in increasing the volatility.
In this project, I will filter the factors that I feel will have the maximum impact on the sectors performance in
the medium term.
Also to provide an outlook on each of these variables and give an insight into their impact on the respective
companies.
Based on the findings, I have also furnished my investment view on the following 10 companies based on the
stock valuation, whether underpriced, overpriced, or correctly priced:
The companies are:
BPCL, Cain India, Castrol, GAIL, HPCL, IOC, Oil India, ONGC, Petronet, Reliance.

Primary Objective 2:
Analyse the movement of USD-INR pair in Currency Market and forecast its price movements

The USD-INR exchange rate is an important indicator of investor sentiment and can significantly impact not
only the fortunes of individual firms and sectors but also the government. While this exchange rate has been
very stable overall for the last five years (44.86 on April 24th, 2006 and 44.34 on April 15th, 2011), recently
there have been periods of significant volatility.
The exchange rate of USD/INR is at 54.210 which has gone up by 22.23% which is a speculated to touch 60
from a year of now.
In my project firstly to compute the entry points of USD-INR for different time intervals using various
technical tools like EMA , RSI, Bollinger bands.
Secondly I would forecast the price for the month of May, 2013 with the help of Elliot Wave Theory &
Support and resistance levels.

Primary Objective 3:
Detailed study IIFL financial services and compare it with other brokerage firms.
The services offered are:
1.) Trading services
a. Equity
b. Commodity
c. Commodity Spot
d. Currency
2.) Insurance Services
Here, it mainly promotes ICICI pru life insurance.
3.) Tax Planning
Different financial instruments available for tax planning are
a. Life Insurance
b. ELSS (Equity Linked Savings Schemes) Mutual fund of all AMC's
c. Infrastructure Bonds
Also, prepare a SWOT analysis chart of IIFL vs competitors.
3. Objective of the Project:
a.) To do a detailed analysis of the stocks integrated in the S&P BSE Auto index and study the stocks that
contributed for index momentum. Also forecast its performance for the month of May 2013.
b.) To study the trading strategies involved in the currency market and analyse the movement of USD-INR
pair n Currency Market and forecast its price movements for different time intervals using various
technical tools.
c.) To do a detailed study of IIFL financial services and compare it with other brokerage firms.

4. Methodology:
Step 1:- Collection of historical prices of BSE Oil and Gas Index & USD-INR from annual reports and
reference sites.
Step 2:- Analysing current price movement of USD-INR for 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour , 2 hour, daily,
weekly and monthly.
Step 3:- Analysing the impact of factors on the Oil and Gas index and finding out valuations for the stocks
behold in the Index.
Step 3:-Using various technical tools on the price charts formed for above mentioned time intervals &
predicting the future price of USD-INR by using Elliot Wave Theory and Fibonacci Retracement.
Step 4:- Prepare final report which shows the forecasted price of USD-INR and point of entry and exit and
Analyse the BSE Oil and Gas index and top stocks for investment.

5. Schedule:
Date Planned
21st March 31st March

8th April 13th May


15th May- 20th May

Work Planned
Training in trading strategies and getting familiar to IIFL financial
services.
Interaction with IIFL clients and generation of prospectus clients during a
canopy in Jaya Bheri Silicon Tower, Hi-Tech city
Project Data collection and analysis.
Validating the findings.

22nd May

Final Project Report and Presentation .

4th April

6. Limitations of the Study:


Price movements of USD and INR are affected by both fundamental and technical factors. To a large
extent, we are ignoring the fundamental factors which are likely to affect the price movements of USDINR.
Future is uncertain No one can accurately predict the future. Our forecast of future prices of USD-INR is
based on historical price movements which may or may not hold true.
The primary information given by the person may not be very accurate because of lesser time and their
busy work schedule.

7. References:
www.stockcharts,com
www.moneycontrol.com
www.investing.com
www.nsetame.com
www.bseindia.com
http://in.reuters.com
Books:
1. Technical Analysis from A to Z by Steven B. Achelis
2. Investments by Bodie Kane Marcus
3. Mastering Elliot Wave by Glenn Neely with Eric Hall