ANALISIS DE LA DEMANDA ACTUAL

AO
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

CONS CARNE
P/HABIT

AO
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

CONS CARNE
INGRESO
P/HABIT
P/HABIT
25
300
26
320
27
320
26
330
29
340
31
360
30
370
34
380
35
400
34
420

Y
25
26
27
26
29
31
30
34
35
34

y PROMEDIO
a=

Y X X XY
a
N X X
2

LOG C
1.39794001
1.41497335
1.43136376
1.41497335
1.46239800
1.49136169
1.47712125
1.53147892
1.54406804
1.53147892
14.69715729
1.46971573

2.54670112

logc
1.39794001
1.41497335
1.43136376
1.41497335
1.46239800
1.49136169
1.47712125
1.53147892
1.54406804

b=

XY X Y
N X X
2

a YPROM bXPROM

INGRESO
X
P/HABIT
LOG Y
300
2.47712125
320
2.50514998
320
2.50514998
330
2.51851394
340
2.53147892
360
2.55630250
370
2.56820172
380
2.57978360
400
2.60205999
420
2.62324929
25.46701117

-1.31730529

X2
6.13612971
6.27577641
6.27577641
6.34291247
6.40838551
6.53468248
6.59566010
6.65528341
6.77071620
6.88143684
64.87675953

1.0943652

logy
2.477121255
2.505149978
2.505149978
2.51851394
2.531478917
2.556302501
2.568201724
2.579783597
2.602059991

antilog a =

iy 9

0.0048160912

420
1 0.038093444
300

Y97 4201 0.038093444

Y97 4201 0.038093444

1.53147892
1997
1998
1999
2000

35.4199153893
36.8991295681
38.4401190158
40.0454635982

2.62324929
435.9992448
452.6079559
469.8493499
487.7475279

 Y X X XY
N X X
2

XY X Y
N X X
2

YPROM bXPROM
Y2

XY
3.46286691
3.54472045
3.58578090
3.56363010
3.70202970
3.81237163
3.79354535
3.95088419
4.01775768
4.01745098
37.45103790

1.95423627
2.00214958
2.04880223
2.00214958
2.13860790
2.22415970
2.18188720
2.34542767
2.38414613
2.34542767
21.62699392

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/16/06 Time: 16:41
Sample: 1987 1996
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
INGPER

R-squared
a=

-1.317305287 ls logc c logy

20
1 0.038093444
00

4201 0.038093444

C 97

-1.317305
1.094365

0.904168

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.320844
0.125965

-4.105753
8.687869

Mean dependent var

Adjusted R-squared0.892189

S.D. dependent var

S.E. of regression 0.017767

Akaike info criterion

Sum squared resid 0.002525

Schwarz criterion

Log likelihood
27.23062
Durbin-Watson stat 2.544027

F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

yT
34
y0

1.0943652
funcin

Eviews

4201 0.038093444

y
C 97 34 T
y0

1.0943652

1.3935698
1.42424346
1.42424346
1.43886851
1.45305693
1.48022299
1.49324508

1.393569951
1.42424361
1.42424361
1.438868664
1.453057083
1.480223149
1.493245244

AO
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Prob.
0.0034
0

1.469716
0.05411

-5.046124
-4.985607
75.47907
0.000024

y
x
CONS PESCADOCARNE
INGRESO
P/HABIT
logy
P/HABIT
50 1.69897000
600
52 1.71600334
640
57 1.75587486
645
50 1.69897000
660
63 1.79934055
680
48 1.68124124
690
46 1.66275783
700
76 1.88081359
780
82 1.91381385
790
85 1.92941893
795

logx
2.77815125
2.80617997
2.80955971
2.81954394
2.83250891
2.83884909
2.84509804
2.89209460
2.89762709
2.90036713

CONSUMO INGRESO
logC
logY
1.69897 2.77815125
1.71600334 2.80617997
1.75587486 2.80955971
1.69897 2.81954394
1.79934055 2.83250891
1.68124124 2.83884909
1.66275783 2.84509804
1.88081359
2.8920946
1.91381385 2.89762709
1.92941893 2.90036713

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
Sample: 1997 2006
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
LOGY
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
Sample: 1997 2006
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
LOGY
R-squared
Adjusted Rsquared
S.E. of
regression
Sum squared
resid
Log
likelihood
DurbinWatson stat

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
ample: 1997 2006
ncluded observations: 10

DEMAN 95
DEMAN 96

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0,00018684Y 1,9360514
-3.72853
1,410,037
0.93605 0.496094
0.655621
0.612574
0.062823
0.031574
1,460,066
1,541,022

-2,644,279 0.0295
3,902,591 0.0045

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1,773,720
0.100931
-2,520,132
-2,459,615
1,523,021
0.004528

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:08
ample: 1997 2006
ncluded observations: 10
Coefficient
-3,728,531
1,936,051
0.655621
0.612574

Std. Error
t-Statistic
1,410,037
-2,644,279
0.496094
3,902,591
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var

Prob.
0.0295
0.0045
1,773,720
0.100931

0.062823

Akaike info criterion

-2,520,132

0.031574

Schwarz criterion

-2,459,615

1,460,066

F-statistic

1,523,021

1,541,022

Prob(F-statistic)

0.004528

76.107
77.042
0.00018684

0,00018684Y 1,9360514

aos
x

ao

demanda
Y

Y cuadrado
xy
$b
100.00
400
900
2025
4900
8100
15625
22500
32400

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3

10 ls y c x
20
30
45
70
90
125
150
180

1996

220

48400

880

1997

270

72900

1350

1210
208250
METODOS DE PROYECCION DE MERCADO
1. EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO TOTAL

2815

AO

AO

-50
-80 proyeccin
-90
1998
-90
1999
-70
2000
0
2001
125
2002
300
2003
540
2004
2005

CONSUMO

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010

11
12
13
14
15
20

118.714554
122.660918
126.607282
130.553646
134.50001
154.23183

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X

proyeccion

Y cuadrado XY
4435.56
7208.01
7849.96
6084
9370.24
11067.04
8686.24
12454.56

AO
-333
-339.6
-265.8
-156
-96.8
0
93.2
223.2

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

CONSUMO
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2

66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C

7796.89
13689
13271.04
101912.54

Se=

264.9
468
576
434.1 proyeccion

94.2680715

1998
1999
2000

3
4
5

88.3
117
115.2
1045.4

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010

6
7
8
9
10
15

118.714544
122.660908
126.607272
130.553636
134.5
154.23182

AO

X
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

CONSUMO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2010

118.715364
122.661728
126.608092
130.554456
134.50082
154.23264

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

proyeccion

EJERCICIO 1

7
X
AO

7
Y
CONSUMO

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
y PROMEDIO
a=

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
82.00000000
8.20000000
4.20666667

X
AO

b=

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55.00000000
5.50000000
0.7260606

x CUADRADO
1.00
4.00
9.00
16.00
25.00
36.00
49.00
64.00
81.00
100.00
385.00

XY
4.80
11.20
19.50
29.20
40.50
51.00
63.70
78.40
93.60
119.00
510.90
a=

X
AO

Y
CONSUMO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

EXTRAPOLACION EXPONENCIAL

Q n Q 0 (1 i ) n

n 1

C
C

para el ejemplo anterior

i n 1

115,2
1 0,056
66,6

Q2010 115,2(10,056)10 198,60

3. PRACTICA

poblacin CONSUMO
CONSUMO TOTAL EN EL AO 2000
170
POBLACION 2000
38.500
TASA HISTORICA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION
2.2
TASA DE CREC EN EL PERIODO DE PROY.
2.6
TSA DE CREC DEL CONSUMO GLOBAL
5.8
RESOLUCION
DEMANDA POR HABIT 2000
4.42
TASA HIST DE CREC DEL CONS POR HABIT iq
360.00%
calculo del consumo por habitante 2001
4.574545455
calculo del consumo por habitante 2002
4.739229091
calculo del consumo por habitante 2003
4.909841338

39.501
40.528
41.582

180.70
192.07
204.16

AO
CONS
Se=
18.593871
demanda
Intervalos
6
263.54546
226.34546
7
289.13637
252.34546
8
9
10

300.74546
326.74546

2
153,147,891,704,226 ############
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
Dependent Variable: CONS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Coefficient
75.30455
3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

Std. Error
5.476701
0.925731

t-Statistic

Prob.

13.74998
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Coefficient
95.03636

Std. Error
2.92742

t-Statistic
32.46421

Prob.
0

0.892189
0.017767
0.002525
27.23062
2.544027

S.D. dependent var

Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

0.925731

4.262968

0.0021

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Coefficient
-7777.959
3.946364
0.668788
0.631986
9.709154
848.409
-39.5084
2.957856

Std. Error
1846.837
0.925731

t-Statistic

Prob.

-4.211504
4.262968

0.0023
0.0021

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Y CUADRADO

AO

CONS

Se=
23.04 proyeccin
31.36
42.25
53.29
65.61
72.25
82.81
96.04
108.16
141.61
716.42
4.206666667

0.2571
demanda
Intervalos
11 12.19333333
12 12.91939394
12.41547794

12.91939394

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/16/06 Time: 17:42
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable

CONSUMO

Coefficient

C
X

4.206667
0.726061

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.987983
0.986481
0.25714
0.52897
0.507661
1.482912

Std. Error
0.17566
0.02831

t-Statistic
23.94773
25.64658

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0
0
8.2
2.211586
0.298468
0.358985
657.747
0

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:39
Sample: 1987 1997
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

110

5.606265

19.62091

25.59091

1.772857

14.43484

R-squared
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion

Prob(F-statistic)

0.958595
0.05411
-5.046124
-4.985607
75.47907
0.000024

Mean dependent var

110

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

4.932727273
5.658787879
6.384848485
7.110909091
7.836969697
8.563030303
9.289090909
10.01515152
10.74121212
11.46727273
12.19333333
12.91939394
13.64545455
14.37151515
15.09757576

4.932727273
5.658787879
6.384848485
7.110909091
7.836969697
8.563030303
9.289090909
10.01515152
10.74121212
11.46727273
12.19333333
12.91939394
13.64545455
14.37151515
15.09757576

4.93272727
5.65878788
6.38484848
7.11090909
7.8369697
8.5630303
9.28909091
10.0151515
10.7412121
11.4672727
12.1933333
12.9193939
13.6454545

EJERC HECTOR
aos
ao
x
1987
X
XY1988
2
1989
X
1990
1991
1992
X
Y 1993

Y X
a
N X
2

XY
1994
N X X
1995
2

a YPROM bXPROM

1996

demanda
Y
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

10 ls y c x
20
30
45
70
90
125

150

180

220

2.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/19/06 Time: 15:50
Sample: 1987 1997
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

-17.95455

10.48836

-1.711854

0.1211

25.59091

1.772857

14.43484

.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA
demanda
Y

ao
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992

15
26
34
42
65
86

1993

98

1994

105

1995

120

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 10:37
Sample: 1987 1997
Included observations: 11
Variable
Coefficient
C
-30123.60
X
15.16364
R-squared
0.981315
Adjusted R0.979239
squared
S.E. of
7.315129
regression
Sum squared
4,816,000
resid

AO CONSUMO
1990
66.6
1991
84.9
1992
88.6
1993
78
1994
96.8
1995
105.2
1996
93.2
1997
111.6
1998
88.3
1999
117
2000
115.2

Std. Error
t-Statistic
1,389,362
-2,168,160
0.697470
2,174,091
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var

Prob.
0.0000
0.0000
8,236,364
5,076,864

Akaike info criterion

6,980,732

Schwarz criterion

7,053,077

AO

CONS

CONS

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

654,545,454,268
217,090,909,069
368,727,272,711
520,363,636,353
671,999,999,994
823,636,363,636
975,272,727,278
112,690,909,092
127,854,545,456

15
26
34
42
65
86
98
105
120

1996

14,301,818,182

145

1997

158,181,818,185

1998

173,345,454,549

CONSF
CONSFSM
654,545,454,268
654,545,454,268
217,090,909,069
217,090,909,069
368,727,272,711
368,727,272,711
520,363,636,353
520,363,636,353
671,999,999,994
671,999,999,994
823,636,363,636
823,636,363,636
975,272,727,278
975,272,727,278
112,690,909,092
112,690,909,092
127,854,545,456
127,854,545,456
14,301,818,182

14,301,818,182

170 158,181,818,185

158,181,818,185
173.345

RESID
X
845,454,545,732
429,090,909,313
-287,272,727,106
-100,363,636,353
-219,999,999,944
363,636,363,636
0.472727272176
-769,090,909,202
-785,454,545,621

XSM
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

EJERC HECTOR
aos

demanda

19,818,181,796

1996

1996

ao

demanda Y

118,181,818,154

1997

1997

1987

-5

10

1998

1988

-4

20
1.4149733
1.4313638
1.4149733
1.4623980
1.4913617
1.4771213
1.5314789
1.5440680
1.5314789

AO

CONS
7.315129
demanda
Intervalos
1998
173.345 159.007802
1999
#REF!
#REF!
2000
#REF!
#REF!
Se=

Aos X

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
proyeccion
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Y cuadrado XY
4435.56
7208.01
7849.96
6084
9370.24
11067.04
8686.24
12454.56
7796.89
13689
13271.04
101912.54

AO
-333
1990
-339.6
1991
-265.8
1992
-156
1993
-96.8
1994
0
1995
93.2
1996
223.2
1997
264.9
1998
468
1999
576
2000
434.1 proyeccion
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Se=

94.26807151

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
proyeccion
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

187.683107
#REF!
#REF!

Y cuadrado
-5 $b
-4
2.50515
2.50515
2.51851
2.53148
2.55630
2.56820
2.57978
2.60206
2.62325

AO

xy

x cuadrado

100.00

-50.00 $b

25.00

400

-80.00 $b

16.00

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

11
12
13
14
15

118.714554
122.660918
126.607282
130.553646
134.50001

xy
-50

Se=

-80 proyeccin
1.4149733
2.50515
1.4313638
2.50515
1.4149733
2.51851
1.4623980
2.53148
1.4913617
2.55630
1.4771213
2.56820
1.5314789
2.57978
1.5440680
2.60206
1.5314789
2.62325

NY
XYX
a
b

XX

NN
2

22

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:26
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable

Coefficient

C
X

##########
##########

R-squared
0.668788
Adjusted R-squared
0.631986
S.E. of regression 9.709154
Sum squared resid 848.409
Log likelihood
-39.5084
Durbin-Watson stat2.957856

AO
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2
1045.4

6
7
8
9
10

118.714544
122.660908
126.607272
130.553636
134.5

CONSUMO
66.6
84.9
88.6
78
96.8
105.2
93.2
111.6
88.3
117
115.2

118.715364
122.661728
126.608092
130.554456
134.50082

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:28
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X

Coefficient
95.036360
3.946364

R-squared
0.668788
Adjusted R-squared
0.631986
S.E. of regression 9.709154
Sum squared resid 848.409
Log likelihood
-39.5084
Durbin-Watson stat2.957856

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/25/06 Time: 22:46
Sample: 1990 2000
Included observations: 11
Variable
C
X

Coefficient
-7777.959
3.946364

R-squared
0.668788
Adjusted R-squared
0.631986
S.E. of regression 9.709154
Sum squared resid 848.409
Log likelihood
-39.5084
Durbin-Watson stat2.957856

AO

CONS

18.593871
demanda

Dependent Variable: Y
Intervalos

Method: Least Squares

N
a
YPROM
XbXPROM
Y
N X X N Y2 Y2

Time: 15:45
Y XYX Date:
XY
XX 10/19/07
Y
N1999XY
Sample:
1990
2
22
XX observations:
102
NN
XX22 rIncluded
2
2

a
b

Variable
C
Y

Coefficient
-1.317305
1.094365

R-squared
0.904168
Adjusted R-squared
0.892189
S.E. of regression 0.017767
Sum squared resid0.002525
Log likelihood
27.23062
Durbin-Watson stat2.544027

Time: 22:26

Std. Error
5.476701
0.925731

t-Statistic
13.74998
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Std. Error
0.320844
0.125965

t-Statistic
-4.105753
8.687869

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0.0034
0
1.469716
0.05411
-5.046124
-4.985607
75.47907
0.000024

Time: 22:28

Std. Error
2.92742
0.925731

t-Statistic

Prob.

32.46421
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

Time: 22:46

Std. Error
1846.837
0.925731

t-Statistic
-4.211504
4.262968

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0.0023
0.0021
95.03636
16.00477
7.546981
7.619326
18.1729
0.002102

EJERC HECTOR
ao
Date: 04/29/07 Time: 11:31
Sample: 1990 1999
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
LOGY

Coefficient

Std. Error

-1,330,041 0.324328
1,099,293 0.127348

R-squared
0.903048
Adjusted R-squared
0.890929
S.E. of regression
0.017950
Sum squared resid
0.002578
Log likelihood
2,712,780
Durbin-Watson stat
2,539,184

t-Statistic

Prob.

-4,100,915 0.0034
8,632,223 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

1,469,200
0.054352
-5,025,560
-4,965,043
7,451,528
0.000025

JERC HECTOR
aos

demanda

III PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA CONSIDERANDO LOS EFECTOS DEL CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION Y LA INFL
DEL CONSUMO POR HABITANTE DE LOS CAMBIOS EN LOS INGRESOS EN LOS PRECIOS O AMBOS SIMULTANEAM
REGRESION MULTIPLE
Y
X1
X2
DEMANDA INGRESO
PRECIO
64
57
8
Dependent Variable: DEM
71
59
10
Method: Least Squares
53
49
6
Date: 11/02/08 Time: 11:30
67
62
11
Sample: 1 12
55
51
8
Included observations: 12
58
50
7
77

55

10

57

48

56

52

10

51
76
68
753
62.75

42
61
57
643
53.5833333

6
12
9
106
8.83333333

Variable

Coefficient

3,651,216

ING
PREC

0.854610
1,506,332

R-squared
0.708554
Adjusted R-squared0.643789
S.E. of regression 5,363,215
Sum squared resid 2,588,766
Log likelihood
-3,545,593
Durbin-Watson stat1,770,908

METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

1
ESTRATOS

INGRESO
FAMILIAR

ESTRATO 1

1000
1500
1700
2000

ESTRATOII

2500
3000

CE1,t

CONSUMO
TOTAL

NUMERO
FAMILIAS

3000
3500
3600
4000
14100
5000
8000

Y1,t
CE1, 0
Y1, 0

CE1,1

FR

300
280
300
310
1190
250
300
550
E1

4
CONSUMO
FAMILIAR

0.25210084
0.235294118
0.25210084
0.260504202
1
0.454545455
0.545454545
1

10
12.5
12
12.9032258
20
26.6666667

tasa de crecimiento el ingreso 0,025

Y1 1554,9(1 0,025)1 1593,77

1593,77
11,85

1554
,
62

0 , 736

CE1,1

1593,77
11,85

1554,62

0 , 736

CE1,1 12,067

Metodo Series de Tiempo

AO

Invierno
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Ao

Estacin
1987 Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
1988
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
1989
Invierno
Primavera

Primavera
2
5
7
10
13
19
27
26
38
44
51

Promediol
movil

Demanda

3
6
10
17
20
34
39
44
51
67
79

promedio M.
centrado

2
3
4
1

2.5
3.25

2.88
3.63

5
6
7
2

4
4.75
5
5.5

4.38
4.88
5.25
6.00

7
10

6.50
7.25

6.88
7.38

Verano
Otoo

10
3

7.5
8.25

7.88
9.13

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

10
17
16
2

10
11.5
11.25
12

10.75
11.38
11.63
12.38

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

13
20
28
9

12.75
15.75
17.5
19

14.25
16.63
18.25
20.75

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

19
34
34
3

22.5
24
22.5
24.5

23.25
23.25
23.50
25.13

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

27
39
48
11

25.75
29.25
31.25
31

27.50
30.25
31.13
31.63

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

26
44
58
22

32.25
34.75
37.50
40.50

33.50
36.13
39.00
41.38

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

38
51
70
21

42.25
45.25
45
46.5

43.75
45.13
45.75
48.50

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

44
67
81
28

50.5
53.25
55
56.75

51.88
54.13
55.88
58.25

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

51
79
107
33

59.75
66.25
67.5

63.00
66.88

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

ENTO DE LA POBLACION Y LA INFLUENCIA

PRECIOS O AMBOS SIMULTANEAMENTE.

datos

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

INGRESO
1
2
3
4
5

57
59
49
62
51

50

55

1,616,781

0.225832

0.8264

48

0.451664
1,414,266

1,892,136
1,065,098

0.0910
0.3146

9
10
11
12

52
42
61
57

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6,275,000
8,986,100
6,409,322
6,530,549
1,094,027
0.003895

CONSUMO
INGRESO
PONDERADO PONDERADO ELASTICIDAD FRXELAST
2.521008403
2.941176471
3.025210084
3.361344538
11.8487395
9.090909091
14.54545455
23.63636364

nto el ingreso 0,025

0,025)1 1593,77

252.1008403
352.9411765
428.5714286
521.0084034
1554.621849
1136.363636
1636.363636
2772.727273

0.500
-0.300
0.427
2.200

0.12605042
-0.070588235
0.107526882
0.573109244
0.73609831

Verano

Otoo
4
7
10
16
28
34
48
58
70
81
107

TOTAL
1
2
3
2
9
3
11
22
21
28
33

Indice
Estacional

10
20
30
45
70
90
125
150
180
220
270

AHORA PASANDOLO A HORIZONTAL

Invierno
1.39
0.28
1.14
1.23
1.33
0.33
1.02
1.36

1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Primavera
1.14
1.02
0.93
0.91
0.82
0.98
0.78
0.87
0.85
0.81

Verano
1.23
1.36
1.49
1.20
1.46
1.29
1.22
1.13
1.24
1.18

Otoo
1.39
1.33
1.27
1.38
1.53
1.45
1.54
1.49
1.53
1.45

0.28
0.33
0.33
0.16
0.43
0.12
0.35
0.53
0.43
0.48

1.27 TOTAL
0.33 PROMEDIO

9.10498
0.91050

12.80321
1.28032

14.3609
1.43609

3.4426
0.34426

0.93
1.49 COMO SUMA DEBE SER 4, ENTONCES LA SUMA 3,97151 DEBE AJUSTARSE.
1.38
0.16 SUMA DE
FRECUENCIA NUEVOS
PROMEDIOS RELATIVA
VALORES
0.91
0.91050
0.229276824
0.917107295
1.20
1.28032
0.322403557
1.289614226
1.53
1.43609
0.361629698
1.446518794
0.43
0.34426
0.086689921
0.346759685
3.97117
1
4
0.82
1.46 Proyectando para el ao 1998
1.45 La demanda global proyectada es de 263,540 unidades entonces:
0.12 263,540/4 =
65.885
0.98
1.29
1.54
0.35
0.78
1.22
1.49
0.53
0.87
1.13
1.53
0.43
0.85
1.24
1.45
0.48
0.81
1.18

Estacin
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

Deman/estacin FR
Deman X FR
65.885
0.917030321
60.419
65.885
1.289505987
84.959
65.885
1.446397386
95.296
65.885
0.347066306
22.866
263.540

4. PRACTICA

5.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA.

INGRESOS

AOS

CANTIDAD

POR PERSONA DEMANDADA

Poblacin

POR PERSONA
Precios ctes. (x) Unidades (y)

N Hab (z)

1995

110

220

4.009

1996

118

240

4.113

1997

121

250

4.220

1998

127

255

4.330

1999

134

262

4.442

2000

140

265

4.558

2001

147

280

4.676

2002

154

285

4.798

2003

162

290

4.923

2004

169

300

5.051

PROYECCION EN BASE AL PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

ESTRATOS

INGRESO
FAMILIAR

ESTRATO 1

6
8
10
12

ESTRATOII

14

CONSUMO
TOTAL
85
110
106
100
401
115

NUMERO
FAMILIAS
150
132
124
110
516
92

FR

0.29069767
0.25581395
0.24031008
0.21317829
1

CONSUMO CONSUMO
FAMILIAR PONDERADO
0.5666667
0.8333333
0.8548387
0.9090909

0.16472868
0.21317829
0.20542636
0.19379845
0.77713178

1.25

METODO PRESUPUESTO DEL CONSUMIDOR

INGRESO
CONSUMO NUMERO
FR
CONSUMO
ESTRATOS
FAMILIAR TOTAL
FAMILIAS
FAMILIAR
ESTRATO 1 SEGMENTO
1
20
37.5
75 0.2697842
0.5000
2
30
49.5
76 0.2733813
0.6513
3
40
49.6
72 0.2589928
0.6889
4
50
49.5
55 0.1978417
0.9000
186.1
278
1
ESTRATOII
55
46
46
1.0000

cons en el ao 1

SUMA DE

Y
C 1 ,1 C 1 , 0 1 ,1
Y1, 0

PROMEDIOS
3.97117

.- PRACTICA DIRIGIDA.
DEMANDA INGRESO
PRECIO
129
117
139
115
109
98
138
146
114
125
119
114
146
128
125
98
119
118

20
20
15
22
18
15
20
19
23

105

94

18

147

126

24

128

128

19

INGRESO
PONDERADOELASTICIDADFRXELAST
1.74418605
2.04651163
2.40310078
2.55813953
8.75193798

1.41176471
0.10322581
0.31732419
2.25

0.41039672
0.0264066
0.0762562
0.47965116
0.99271068

CONSUMO INGRESO
PONDERADOPONDERADOELASTICIDADFRXELAST
0.1349
0.1781
0.1784
0.1781
0.6694

5.3957
8.2014
10.3597
9.8921
33.8489

0.60526316
0.17306397
1.22580645
1.11111111

0.16329042
0.04731245
0.31747505
0.21982414
0.74790207

C 1 ,1 C 1 , 0

Y 1 ,1

Y1, 0

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 12:29
Sample: 1995 2004
Included observations: 10
Variable
Coefficient
C
95.1954
ING
1.22652
R-squared
0.961241
Adjusted R0.956396
squared
S.E.
of
5.142370
regression
Sum squared
2,115,517
resid
Log
likelihood
DurbinWatson stat

-2,944,881
1,181,650

CONS

Std. Error
t-Statistic
1,214,332
7,839,321
0.087076
1,408,554
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion

Prob.
0.0001
0.0000
2,647,000
2,462,632
6,289,762

Schwarz criterion

6,350,279

F-statistic

1,984,025

Prob(F-statistic)

0.000001

220
240
250
255
262
265
280
285
290
300

CONSF
230,112,226,173
239,924,360,592
243,603,910,999
250,963,011,813
25,954,862,943
266,907,730,244
275,493,347,861
284,078,965,478
293,891,099,897
302,476,717,513

AOS

CONSFSM

ING

INGSM

computadora

110
118
121
127
134
140
147
154
162

110.0000
116.0000
123.9312
127.6720
132.7571
139.4993
145.8798
153.0015
160.3257

1995

2003

230
237
247
252
258
266
274
283
292

2004

302

169

168.5876

2004

2005

311

176.1092

2005

2006

320

183.3504

2006

2007

329

190.5916

2007

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

Dependent Variable: ING

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 12:52
Sample: 1995 2004
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
X
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient
-12828.25000
6.48485
0.994780
0.994127
1,508,561
1,820,606
-1,718,523
1,003,359

respuesta 4
lineal

respuesta 5
exponencial
i= 1,048869744
i=1,026003955

Dependent Variable: DEMAN

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 13:52
Sample: 2001 2012
Included observations: 12
Variable
C

proy pobla

ING

Coefficient

Std. Error

39.72687000
0.390906

0.246639

167.385

177.259

5182

1,612,619 PREC

173.870

185.922

5317

1,701,853

180.355

195.008

5455

1,794,472 R-squared
0.545200
Adjusted R-squared
0.444133
S.E. of regression 1,039,181
Sum squared resid9,719,083
Log likelihood
-4,339,339
Durbin-Watson stat1,718,619

Std. Error
3,320,916
0.166087

t-Statistic

2,108,466

1,336,169
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.

-3,862,866 0.0000
3,904,485 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

2,671,200

1,382,000
1,968,530
3,837,047
3,897,564
1,524,501
0.000000

Dependent Variable: DEMAN

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 13:52
Sample: 2001 2012
Included observations: 12
Variable
C
ING
PREC
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

39.72687
0.390906
2.108466

26.71200
0.246639
1.336169

1.487229
1.584932
1.577993

0.545200
0.444133
10.39181
971.9083
-43.39339
1.718619

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

12
13
7.
7.
5.
0.

AOS

DEMAN

DEMANF
127,632,211,815
126,850,399,342
109,662,664,402
14,318,542,424
126,542,530,139
115,917,164,186
131,932,180,416
118,096,527,538
134,348,515,403

1,487,229 0.1711

129
139
109
138
114
119
146
125
119

1,584,932 0.1474

105 114,424,436,808

1,577,993 0.1490

147 139,584,231,079

t-Statistic

Prob.

128 129,823,714,632
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Prob(F-statistic)

1,265,000
1,393,818
7,732,232
7,853,459
5,394,452
0.028853

fficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

72687
90906
08466

26.71200
0.246639
1.336169

1.487229
1.584932
1.577993

0.1711
0.1474
0.1490

45200
44133
39181
1.9083
39339
18619

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

126.5000
13.93818
7.732232
7.853459
5.394452
0.028853

1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

exponencial
DEMANFSM
ING
127,632,211,815
128,348,873,248
128,975,678,694
128,489,307,232
129,463,240,877
129,821,407,774
129,433,376,914
12,961,207,079
129,025,314,739

INGSM

PREC

PRECSM

117
115
98
146
125
114
128
98
118

117
118,833,333,333
120,151,485,068
118,799,231,041
12,287,463,784
125,059,757,599
12,558,848,068
12,732,602,569
124,929,384,132

20
20
15
22
18
15
20
19
23

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

129,103,029,191

94

123,947,402,034

18

20

128,140,938,987

126

11,949,494,894

24

20

128,305,146,689

128

118,312,385,909

19

20

128,217,316,813
128,083,956,473
127,950,596,134

117,911,420,149
1,167,354,937
115,559,567,251

20
20
20

DEMANDA logdeman
INGRESO
loging
PRECIO
129 2.11058971
117 2.06818586
139 2.14301480
115 2.06069784
109 2.03742650
98 1.99122608
138 2.13987909
146 2.16435286
114 2.05690485
125 2.09691001
119 2.07554696
114 2.05690485
146 2.16435286
128 2.10720997
125 2.09691001
98 1.99122608
119 2.07554696
118 2.07188201

20
20
15
22
18
15
20
19
23

logprec
1.30103000
1.30103000
1.17609126
1.34242268
1.25527251
1.17609126
1.30103000
1.27875360
1.36172784

105

2.02118930

94

1.97312785

18

1.25527251

147

2.16731733

126

2.10037055

24

1.38021124

128

2.10720997

128

2.10720997

19

1.27875360

logdeman
loging
logprec
2.11058971 2.06818586 1.30103000
2.14301480 2.06069784 1.30103000
2.03742650 1.99122608 1.17609126
2.13987909 2.16435286 1.34242268
2.05690485 2.09691001 1.25527251
2.07554696 2.05690485 1.17609126
2.16435286 2.10720997 1.30103000
2.09691001 1.99122608 1.27875360
2.07554696 2.07188201 1.36172784
2.02118930

1.97312785

1.25527251

2.16731733

2.10037055

1.38021124

2.10720997

2.10720997

1.27875360

Dependent Variable: LOGDEM

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

C
LOGING

0.914896
0.382680

LOGPREC

0.307039

R-squared

0.562546

Adjusted R-squared
0.465334
S.E. of regression
0.035182
Sum squared resid
0.011140
Log likelihood
2,486,547
Durbin-Watson stat
1,746,683

Dependent Variable: LOGDEM

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/22/08 Time: 14:20
Sample(adjusted): 1 12
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
Variable
C
LOGING
LOGPREC
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

0.914896
0.382680
0.307039

0.387791
0.222004
0.197178

0.562546
0.465334
0.035182
0.011140
24.86547
1.746683

Mean depend
S.D. depende
Akaike info cr
Schwarz crite
F-statistic
Prob(F-statist

able: LOGDEM
Time: 14:20

vations: 12 after adjusting endpoints

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.387791
0.222004

2,359,247 0.0427
1,723,756 0.1188

0.197178

1,557,165 0.1539

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

LOGDEM
LOGDEMF
211,058,971
210,581,671,934
21,430,148
210,295,120,122
20,374,265
203,800,466,746
213,987,909
215,532,710,464
205,690,485
210,275,955,672
207,554,696

206,313,864,228

216,435,286

212,075,047,949

2,099,657

209,691,001

206,952,600,178

0.048115
-3,644,245
-3,523,019
5,786,793
0.024221

207,554,696
20,211,893
216,731,733
210,720,997

212,586,776,276
205,539,055,617
21,424,448,905
211,391,075,763

ariable: LOGDEM
Squares
8 Time: 14:20
ted): 1 12
rvations: 12 after adjusting endpoints

G
EC

uared
sion
resid

n stat

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

0.914896
0.382680
0.307039

0.387791
0.222004
0.197178

2.359247
1.723756
1.557165

0.0427
0.1188
0.1539

0.562546
0.465334
0.035182
0.011140
24.86547
1.746683

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

2.099657
0.048115
-3.644245
-3.523019
5.786793
0.024221

LOGDEMSM
210,581,671,934
210,830,567,937
211,039,424,411
210,728,378,539
21,106,603,903

LOGING
LOGINGSM
206,818,586
206,818,586
206,069,784 207,468,987,833
199,122,608
20,794,016,278
216,435,286 207,379,812,839
209,691,001 208,596,559,716

LOGPREC LOGPRESM
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
117,609,126
130,103
134,242,268
130,103
125,527,251
130,103

211,152,517,734 205,690,485

209,319,680,615 117,609,126

130,103

210,908,764,794 210,720,997

209,501,327,728

130,103

130,103

210,945,697,324 199,122,608

210,093,221,252

12,787,536

130,103

210,637,401,611
210,634,539,539
210,172,703,418
210,219,088,775
210,190,302,213
210,114,653,751
21,003,900,529

20,919,449,874 136,172,784
208,806,646,087 125,527,251
207,086,947,007 138,021,124
206,549,617,377 12,787,536
206,340,122,878
205,838,663,092
205,337,203,305

130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103
130,103

207,188,201
197,312,785
210,037,055
210,720,997

LOGDEMSM
2.105816719
2.108305679
2.110394244
2.107283785
2.11066039
2.111525177
2.109087648
2.109456973
2.106374016
2.106345395
2.101727034
2.102190888
2.101903022
2.101146538
2.100390053

126.44540
126.22534
126.00566

PRACTICA
CONVERTIENDO A LOGARITMO
Y
X1
X2
DEMANDA INGRESO
PRECIO
128
240
145
244
134
198
125
248
110
236
124
198

12
14
10
15
12
11

DEMANDA
LOGD
INGRESO
128.0000000
2.1072100 240.0000000
145.0000000
2.1613680 244.0000000
134.0000000
2.1271048 198.0000000
125.0000000
2.0969100 248.0000000
110.0000000
2.0413927 236.0000000
124.0000000
2.0934217 198.0000000

145

145

14

145.0000000

2.1613680

145.0000000

135

160

13

135.0000000

2.1303338

160.0000000

145

145

14

145.0000000

2.1613680

145.0000000

139
146
138

164
126
115

10
16
13

139.0000000
146.0000000
138.0000000

2.1430148
2.1643529
2.1398791

164.0000000
126.0000000
115.0000000

2.11
2.161368002
2.127104798
2.096910013
2.041392685
2.093421685
2.161368002
2.130333768
2.161368002
2.1430148
2.164352856
2.139879086

LOGY
PRECIO
LOGP
1.0791812 12.0000000
1.0791812
1.1461280 14.0000000
1.1461280
1.0000000 10.0000000
1.0000000
1.1760913 15.0000000
1.1760913
1.0791812 12.0000000
1.0791812
1.0413927 11.0000000
1.0413927
1.1461280

14.0000000

1.1461280

1.1139434

13.0000000

1.1139434

1.1461280

14.0000000

1.1461280

1.0000000
1.2041200
1.1139434

10.0000000
16.0000000
13.0000000

1.0000000
1.2041200
1.1139434

1.07918125
1.14612804
1
1.17609126
1.07918125
1.04139269
1.14612804
1.11394335
1.14612804
1
1.20411998
1.11394335

1.07918125
1.14612804
1
1.17609126
1.07918125
1.04139269
1.14612804
1.11394335
1.14612804
1
1.20411998
1.11394335

AOS

0
1
2
3
4
5
6

van 11%
van 25%
VAN Mrg 11%
TIR Mrg

A
B
MOLIENDA MOLIENDA DIFERENC
A MANO
GRANDE
IAL
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750
36,750

$192,222.27
$145,214.83

90,500
17,195
17,195
19,457
19,457
22,172
22,172

$172,002.62
$146,269.95

-53,750
19,555
19,555
17,293
17,293
14,578
14,578
VAN Mrg.
$20,219.65
($1,055.12)

$20,219.65
24.0893%

Se tienen dos proyectos alternativos

Una pequea irrigacin y una gran irrigacin
con los sgtes flujos de fondos

AOS

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

A
B
MOLIENDA MOLIENDA DIFERENC
A MANO
GRANDE
IAL
-10,500
1,260
1,680
1,680
2,310
2,310
3,360
3,360
3,360

van 11%
van 25%

($2,084.00)
($4,972.72)

VAN Mrg 11%

TIR Mrg

($3,490.86)
-3.4366%

-2,200
540
720
720
990
990
1,440
1,440
1,440
$1,406.86
$168.83

-8,300
720
960
960
1,320
1,320
1,920
1,920
1,920
VAN Mrg.
($3,490.86)
($5,141.55)

1. Se tiene dos proyectos Alternativos, una gran empresa textil y una pequea empresa textil con los sgtes f

AO

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

GRAN
PEQUEA
EMPRESA
EMPRESA
TEXTIL
TEXTIL
-45000
-8000
6300
1085
8100
1395
8100
1395
11700
2015
11700
2015
15300
2635
15300
2635
15300
2635

Si el costo de capital es 12,5% se pide calcular el VAN,TIR,

TIR Mg,VANMg, B/C Mg.De acuerdo a ello decidir cul de los proyectos se debera ejecutar.

na pequea empresa textil con los sgtes flujos.

oyectos se debera ejecutar.

AOS
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

CANTIDAD
INGRESO
DEMAN/PERS POR PERS.
220
110
240
116
250
121
255
127
262
134
265
140
280
147
285
154
290
162
300
169

CONS POT 97
CONS 2000
CONS 2001
CONS 2002
CONS 2003
CONS TOT 2000
CONS TOT 2001
CONS TOT 2002
CONS TOT 2003

Y=97.53147+1.211366X
PROYECCION
284.081834
312.4883667
323.2362115
334.5214486
346.3709475
318738134
336294954.5
354996837.4
374923052.9

Dependent Variable: DEMAN

Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/27/06 Time: 12:50
Sample: 1990 1999
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
INGRES

Std. Error

97.5314700
1.211366000

R-squared
0.960331
Adjusted R-squared 0.955372
S.E. of regression 5.202386
Sum squared resid 216.5185
Log likelihood
-29.56484
Durbin-Watson stat 1.30307

AOS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

12.12442
0.087046

t-Statistic

Prob.

8.044214
13.91646

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0
0
264.7
24.62632
6.312968
6.373485
193.6677
0.000001

POBLACION TOTAL
POBLACION MILLONES
POBLACION
ESTRATO A
ESTRATO B ESTRATO C
TOTAL
0.10
1
2
3.10
0.11
1.1
2.24
3.45
0.12
1.21
2.51
3.84
0.14
1.33
2.81
4.28
0.14
1.46
3.15
4.75
0.15
1.61
3.52
5.28
0.16
1.77
3.95
5.88
0.48
1.95
4.12
6.55
0.20
2.14
4.95
7.29
0.25
2.36
5.55
8.16

1. ANALISIS DE CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CON

AOS

TOTAL
1

4.8

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 21:55

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

Sample: 2001 2010

Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
X

4,206,667
0.726061

R-squared
0.987983
Adjusted R-squared
0.986481
S.E. of regression0.257140
Sum squared resid0.528970
Log likelihood
0.507661
Durbin-Watson stat
1,482,912

2. ANALISIS DE CORRELACION Y REGRESION LINEAL DE LA SERIE HISTORICA DEL CONSUM

POBLACION CONSUMO
TOTAL
TOTAL
3.1
4.8
3.45
5.6
3.84
6.5
4.28
7.3
4.75
8.1
5.28
8.5
5.88
9.1
6.55
9.8
7.29
10.4
8.16
11.9

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:10
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable
C
POB

Coefficient
1,418,667
1,289,717

R-squared
0.973323
Adjusted R-squared
0.969989
S.E. of regression0.383129
Sum squared resid
1,174,305
Log likelihood
-3,479,841
Durbin-Watson stat
0.661466

3.- VERIFICACION DE LA CORRELACION DOBLE LOGARITMICA CON LOS DATOS CONOCIDOS

POBLACION LOG P
CONSUMO LOG C
TOTAL
TOTAL
3.1
0.49136169
4.8
0.68124124
3.45
0.53781910
5.6
0.74818803
3.84
0.58433122
6.5
0.81291336
4.28
0.63144377
7.3
0.86332286
4.75
0.67669361
8.1
0.90848502
5.28
0.72263392
8.5
0.92941893
5.88
0.76937733
9.1
0.95904139
6.55
0.81624130
9.8
0.99122608
7.29
0.86272753
10.4
1.01703334
8.16
0.91169016
11.9
1.07554696
LOG P

LOG C

0.49136169
0.5378191
0.58433122
0.63144377
0.67669361
0.72263392
0.76937733
0.8162413
0.86272753
0.91169016

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:22
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10

0.681241237
0.748188027
0.812913357
0.86332286
0.908485019
0.929418926
0.959041392
0.991226076
1.017033339
1.075546961

Variable
C
LOGP
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Q 1,9666 P 0,864

4. PROYECCION Y EXTRAPOLACION DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA

r= 0,1131

Pt Po (1 0,113) t
0.11353318
0.11111111

PROYECION DE LA POBLACION TOTAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE

AO
POBL TOT
Q=4,21+0.726t
11
9.06
12.19
12
10.05
12.92
13
11.16
13.65
14
12.39
14.37
15
13.75
15.10
16
15.26
15.82
17
16.94
16.55
18
18.81
17.28
19
20.87
18.00
20
23.17
18.73

Dependent Variable: CONS

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:58
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Variable

Coefficient

C
X

4,206,667 0.175660
0.726061
0.028310

R-squared
0.987983
Adjusted R-squared
0.986481
S.E. of regression
0.257140
Sum squared resid
0.528970
Log likelihood 0.507661
Durbin-Watson stat 1,482,912

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

2,394,773 0.0000
2,564,658 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8,200,000
2,211,586
0.298468
0.358985
6,577,470
0.000000

Y=97.53147+1.211366X

PROYECCION ING
2000
2001
2002
2003

INGRESO FAMILIAR
A
B
30
34.5
39.7
45.6
52.5
60.3
69.4
79.9
91.3
105.5

177.45
186.32
195.64
205.42

CONSUMO APARENTE
A
B

C
14
15.7
17.6
19.7
22
24.7
27.6
30.9
34.7
38.8

PROY POBLAC
1020000
1040400
1061208
1082432

3.5
3.9
4.2
4.7
5.1
5.6
6.2
6.8
7.5
8.3

ON LINEAL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE

0.95

4.4

1.15

9.2

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.175660
0.028310

Prob.

2,394,773 0.0000
2,564,658 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8,200,000
2,211,586
0.298468
0.358985
6,577,470
0.000000

ION LINEAL DE LA SERIE HISTORICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE Y LA POBLACION TOTAL

Std. Error

t-Statistic

0.415003
0.075489

3,418,453 0.0091
1,708,473 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

ITMICA CON LOS DATOS CONOCIDOS

Prob.

8,200,000
2,211,586
1,095,968
1,156,485
2,918,881
0.000000

Dependent Variable: LOGC

Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/17/08 Time: 22:22
Sample: 2001 2010
Included observations: 10
Coefficient

Std. Error

0.293726
0.863632

0.037130
0.052071

0.971739
0.968207
0.022005
0.003874
2,509,122
0.634654

t-Statistic

Prob.
7,910,677 0.0000
1,658,554 0.0000

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.898642
0.123411
-4,618,244
-4,557,727
2,750,800
0.000000

CION TOTAL Y CONSUMO APARENTE

Q 1,9666 P 0,864
Q=1.418667+1,289717p
exponencial
13.08
13.17
14.40
14.45
15.87
15.85
17.50
17.38
19.82
19.06
21.34
20.91
23.59
22.94
26.09
25.16
28.88
27.60
31.99
30.27
RESULTADOS PROY Eviews
obs
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

CONS
4.93272727273
5.65878787879
6.38484848485
7.11090909091
7.83696969697
8.56303030303
9.28909090909
10.0151515152
10.7412121212
11.4672727273
12.1933333333
12.9193939394
13.6454545455
14.3715151515
15.0975757576

CONSF
4.93272727273
5.65878787879
6.38484848485
7.11090909091
7.83696969697
8.56303030304
9.2890909091
10.0151515152
10.7412121212
11.4672727273
12.1933333333
12.9193939394
13.6454545455
14.3715151515
15.0975757576

CONSFSM
4.93272727273
5.65878787879
6.38484848485
7.11090909091
7.83696969697
8.56303030304
9.2890909091
10.0151515152
10.7412121212
11.4672727273
12.1933333333
12.9193939394
13.6454545455
14.3715151515
15.0975757576
15.8236363636
16.5496969697
17.2757575758
18.0018181818
18.7278787879

X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

XSM
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2013 13.6454545455 13.6454545455 13.6454545455

2014 14.3715151515 14.3715151515 14.3715151515
2015 15.0975757576 15.0975757576 15.0975757576
2016
15.8236363636
2017
16.5496969697
2018
17.2757575758
2019
18.0018181818
2020
18.7278787879

obs
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

CONSF
5.41679027702
5.86819129789
6.37118100687
6.93865657596
7.54482366113
8.22837377845
9.00220409995
9.86631462562
10.8207053555
11.9427593216

CONSFSM
5.41679027702
5.97910697731
6.31959231877
6.87417071584
7.50613214506
8.15099074631
8.91192389578
9.77603442145
10.7304251513
11.7750960853
13.0648132878
14.186867254
15.3089212201
16.4309751863
17.5530291525
18.6750831186
19.7971370848

POBLA
3.1
3.45
3.84
4.28
4.75
5.28
5.88
6.55
7.29
8.16

13
14
15

POBLASM
3.1
3.536
3.8
4.23
4.72
5.22
5.81
6.48
7.22
8.03
9.03
9.9
10.77
11.64
12.51
13.38
14.25

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

TOTAL

1.15

2.55

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

M
273
879
485
091
697
304
091
152
212
273
333
394
455
515
576
636
697
758
818
879

X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

XSM
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

455
515
576
636
697
758
818
879

13
14
15

POBLASM
3.1
3.536
3.8
4.23
4.72
5.22
5.81
6.48
7.22
8.03
9.03
9.9
10.77
11.64
12.51
13.38
14.25

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

LLEVARLO AL EVIEWS AO Y TOTAL Y CALCULAR LA D

DEMANDA PAL -> 2012 = -130677.5 + 65.29091(2012)
AO

Invierno
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Ao

Estacin
2011 Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2002
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2003
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2004
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2005
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2006
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2007
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo
2008

6
15
21
24
30
42
68
79
105
126
163

Promediol
movil

Demanda
6
9
12
5

8
10.25

15
18
22
10

12.5
15
16.25
17.75

21
28
29
14

20.25
22
23
23.75

24
50
46
9

29.25
33.5
32.25
33.75

30
59
72
21

36
42.5
45.5
48.5

42
99
92
14

58.5
63.5
61.75
68.25

68
125
125
35

74.75
83
88.25
91

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

79
127
148
58

91.5
97.25
103.00
109.50

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

105
129
200
63

110
123
124.25
129.5

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

126
175
220
69

141
146
147.5
156.75

Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

163
183
240
52

158.75
163.75
159.5

2009

2010

2011

LO AL EVIEWS AO Y TOTAL Y CALCULAR LA DEMANDA PROYECTAA PARA EL 2O12

687.811

DA PAL -> 2012 = -130677.5 + 65.29091(2012)

AL EVIEWS
Primavera
9
18
28
50
59
99
125
127
129
175
183

Verano

Otoo

TOTAL

12
22
29
46
72
92
125
148
200
220
240

5
10
14
9
21
14
35
58
63
69
52

promedio M. Indice
centrado
Estacional

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

32
65
92
129
182
247
353
412
497
590
638

32
65
92
129
182
247
353
412
497
590
638

AHORA PASANDOLO A HORIZONTAL

Invierno
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Otoo
1.32
1.29
1.24
1.39
1.53
1.42
1.39
1.39
1.58
1.45

0.44
0.53
0.53
0.26
0.39
0.20
0.38
0.53
0.47
0.44

14.0012
1.40012

4.1558
0.41558

1.32
0.44

13.75
15.63
17.00
19.00

1.09
1.15
1.29
0.53

21.13
22.50
23.38
26.50

0.99
1.24
1.24 TOTAL
0.53 PROMEDIO

31.38
32.88
33.00
34.88

61.00
62.63
65.00
71.50

0.76
1.52 COMO SUMA DEBE SER 4, ENTONCES LA SUMA 3,97151 DEBE AJUSTARSE.
1.39
0.26 SUMA DE
FRECUENCIANUEVOS
PROMEDIOS RELATIVA VALORES
0.76
0.87922 0.22043928 0.88175714
1.34
1.29356 0.32432384 1.29729534
1.53
1.40012 0.35104165
1.4041666
0.39
0.41558 0.10419523 0.41678092
4
3.98848
1
4.00
0.69
1.58 Proyectando para el ao 2012
1.42 La demanda global proyectada es de 687.81 unidades entonces:
0.20 687.81/4 =
171.8275

78.88
85.63
89.63
91.25

0.86
1.46
1.39
0.38

Estacin
Invierno
Primavera
Verano
Otoo

1.15
1.24
1.52
1.34
1.58
1.46
1.27
1.04
1.19
1.13
12.93561
1.29356

Verano

9.13
11.38

39.25
44.00
47.00
53.50

1.09
0.99
0.76
0.76
0.69
0.86
0.84
0.90
0.88
1.01
8.79219
0.87922

Primavera

Deman/estacin
FR
Deman X FR
171.9525 0.88175714
151.620
171.9525 1.29729534
223.073
171.9525
1.4041666
241.450
171.9525 0.41678092
71.667

94.38
100.13
106.25
109.75

0.84
1.27
1.39
0.53

116.50
123.63
126.88
135.25

0.90
1.04
1.58
0.47

143.50
146.75
152.13
157.75

0.88
1.19
1.45
0.44

161.25
161.63

1.01
1.13

687.81

687.810

SUMA DE
PROMEDIOS
3.98848

A 3,97151 DEBE AJUSTARSE.