Now hold the Alliance on a tight leash

Single-Issue Common-Candidature is a done

deal

by Kumar David-December 6, 2014

At last its done! SI-CC has been endorsed; it was a steep and at first a
solitary climb, but you and I dear reader, now have a different task. We
need to hold the Alliance and its leaders to account; hold a sword over
their heads as it were. It is not those who loyally served Mahinda
Rajapaksa in cabinet and parliament for nine long years who best know the
evils of the Executive Presidency; or those who upheld the system when
graft, abuse and rights violations proliferated who best understand the
state of the nation. The thousands who fought resolutely (I am a lucky
unit-of-one in this throng), defied threats and scorn, and in the worst
cases disappeared, are the true agents of change.
Dont trust governments, neither the one which may go out, nor that which
may come. Our motto should be: "Eternal vigilance is the price of freedom"
(John Philpot Collins 1808 and Wendell Philips 1852). Anura Kumara of the
JVP warned the public not to overly trust the Alliance. Good; its sole
purpose is to get rid of EP; it has no long-term socio-economic programme
and understandably the JVP did not sign the MoU on 1 December. It has
nothing to offer on devolution either so the TNA has not signed on.
However, this does not mean these two parties will not join in the lesser
objective of defeating Rajapaksa and abolishing P. Still, one may

legitimately ask: "If the Alliance is a blunt instrument why back it?" The
answer is that a Common Candidate is an imperfect but necessary first
step without which progress is not possible. When you break out of a
dungeon dont expect blue skies at once; bore through walls and travel
down narrow passages first. Electing the Common Chap is an essential
though imperfect first step. A blunt instrument is all we have; there is no
sharp and shining scalpel in our hands.
My Casus Belli
What recently provoked my ire are inane remarks and
dotty stunts of some opposition figures thankfully
CBK and Ranil have held their tongues and shown
decorum so far. Harsha de Silva (HdS) of the UNP
pledged in parliament on 24 November that
prosecution of Paksa regime leaders will be prohibited.
A similar unsolicited pledge from candidate Maithripala
Sirisena (My3) says: "Ill protect all members of the
Rajapaksas family" (Island, 28 November).
Irrespective of what domestic law enforcement or
international agencies may uncover, My3 and HdS have sworn blanket
immunity. War crimes against the Tamils is what these two grandees offer
guarantees for, no doubt to seduce the Sinhala voter. One of them, HdS,
declares himself a "proud Southerner and a Sinhala-Buddhist"; I can see
the veins on the neck swell and the chest heave with hela-jathika abimane.
What starts like this may grow into immunity for all political criminals and
all crimes. If it is not the law that matters, immunity may in time extend
from crimes against humanity, to robbers who sold the country for
commissions, graft ridden cronies and drug peddlers? Disregard for due
process is one trait of authoritarianism, which is what these worthies
accuse the Rajapaksas of! I follow HdS contributions in parliament; his
economic discourses in the media are interesting. Better keep it that way
and not put ones foot in ones mouth pontificating on extraneous topics.
Shortcomings not withstanding, a Common Candidate is necessary, but
this most certainly does not mean that we must take any s**t that comes
out of the Alliance. On the contrary, from day-one its leaders must be kept
in line and firmly disciplined. Let the decline of the Rajapaksas be a
warning of the fate that awaits errant politicos at the hands of an angry
electorate. The people must be watchful and prevent recurrence of past

evils. My central message today is: "Hold the Alliance on a tight leash;
dont let it ever get away with hanky-panky".
Mangala Samarweera is described as a UNP heavyweight but of recent he
has been heavy on daftness. He tried to pass it off as "misreporting" but
that cock wont fight. Asinine comments overreached his status so he had
to cow down and pretend it never happened. Contradicting My3 and the
UNP official statement which explicitly says EP would be abolished,
Mangala took it upon himself to declare "The joint Opposition will retain
the executive presidency sans dictatorial powers exercised by incumbent
President Mahinda Rajapaksa": (Island, 28 November). Presumably Ranil
read him the riot act forcing a humiliating retraction next day.
Worse was to come when he promised that parliament would not be
dissolved "so that MPs pensions could be protected!" So peoples
representative and voice of the citizen is all hogwash; its a matter of lining
ones pocket, eh Mangala? So thats what sets dissolution dates for
parliament!
Foreign affairs
Foreign affairs is deadly serious business; regime change would not be on
our agenda today if the Paksas had shown common sense in dealing with
India and the West, and had had a modicum of restraint in exploiting the
Chinese connection to maximise graft. Economic links between Lanka and
China were cosy in the Paksa era for two reasons; first, China had no
inconvenient human rights hang-ups and unlike India and the West was
not exposed to pressure from the Tamil diaspora and international human
rights agencies; second it was easier and slicker to collect graft from
Chinese sources. It is not that Chinese organisations are more corrupt than
Indian or Western companies, it is that for certain political reasons,
collection procedures were slick.
There will be a shift away from an exclusive China reliance to a balanced
relationship with Beijing, Delhi and the West. This is healthy and Beijing
will be happy about a stable and less corrupt government in Colombo in
the wake of Xi Jinpings anti-graft drive at home. Beijing is in search of
global stability for economic growth and respectable great power status in
the next decade; she does not need shifty jobbers in pot-sized nations. Nor
is she interested in strategically encircling India (the silly String of Pearls

thesis) or contesting US-Indian naval superiority in the Indian Ocean.

Chinas strategic obsession is her littoral waters and Japan, the South
China Sea, and her land borders. Only dummies think that if India or the
West poses a threat, China will send a fleet of sampans to rescue the
Paksa clan! If the regime changes in January, Beijing will merrily send its
heartiest congratulations to the new government.
If My3-HdS-Mangala amateurishness is repeated in foreign relations,
damage will be done. I have insisted all along that even a broomstick
would do as CC if he/she could abolish EP. Now My3 is the candidate of
choice for tactical reasons; thats fine, he can deliver. There is no
presumption that he has other skills, especially in foreign affairs. HdS
expertise lies in economics and Mangala is rather a bull in a China shop
(bad pun). There is a great deal of delicate rebalancing between China,
India and the West that needs to be handled by skilled hands. Mrs B was
adroit and expert at finding a stable foreign policy centre of gravity. It now
remains to be seen if the three new heavyweights, prior to and after a new
parliament is elected (if there is regime change), Ranil, CBK and My3, can
recapture that deftness.
One favour Delhi can do the people of Lanka is to whisper in the
Presidents ear that coups, whether palace or military, will not be
tolerated; abrogation of democracy in this fair isle must be countered by a
swift response. The options are many.
China in transition
The present in Chinese politics, economics and international affairs needs
fuller treatment, but with pandemonium in Lanka, elections, possible
regime change and the Popes visit, it is unlikely I will find an opening. It is
a matter of global significance, so I will smuggle in a few paragraphs here
though only indirectly relevant Lankan hot issues. Chinas economic growth
is slowing and that is good; the new-normal rate of GDP increase should
fall below 7% in the interests of the people. This mad rush of GDP
adrenaline is too much. In advanced Western economies 70% of output
goes to consumption, the rest is shared between government and
investment; in China only 48.5% is consumed by the people, and they are
much poorer. She has been the growth engine of the world economy for
thirty years in a quest to become the largest. Thats enough, the madness
must stop; save less, invest less, let the masses consume more
healthcare, education, working-class housing.

Income and wealth disparity is obscene; worse than in the United States.
The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality where zero means
perfect equality, had by 2010 risen to a staggering 0.73 (Professor Li Shi,
Beijing Normal University, China Daily, 27 November); far worse than any
advanced capitalist country (Sweden 0.23, US 0.46). Worse still, the
wealth gap is massive and worsening. The richest 10% owns 64% of
property, the poorest 10% below zero, they are in debt. The capitalist
world, thanks to democracy, pressure through the ballot, trade unions and
mass action is nowhere near as bad. The Chinese Communist Party has
lost the plot!
In my paper at the Hector Abhayawardena Commemoration Symposium in
December 1999 I held that the state-form in China was indeterminate, its
directions contradictory. It is now possible to make a definite classification;
it is State Capitalist. The crisis in Hong Kong (HK) is a forerunner of bigger
things to come in the Mainland. HKs nave student activists are simpletons
who muddied the waters, annoyed and alienated literally everybody by
blocking the citys arterial roads for two months.
The real issue in HK is increasing inequality and the end of the economic
miracle. In China too Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership know they are
sitting on a volcano. The anti-graft campaign is an effort to contain it,
xenophobia an attempt to divert it. More radical policy shifts are needed if
she is to contain future mass discontent (the CCP is capable of this shift).
Dont be misled by ritzy malls and a stunning building boom. The populace
is all a dazzle, but thats superficial; when the crunch comes the fireworks,
a Chinese invention, will be more lurid.
Posted by Thavam