ASIA'S CAULDRON

Robert Kaplan
In one sentence, this reading tells us that the conflict in
the South China Sea is nothing but a power play.

warships (potential threats) are slower in water

it presents a "stopping power" to conflict
it is an "impediment to invasion" because even
with a naval force, it is difficult to occupy "hostile
shore" (water that is not its own)

Kaplan makes this point by illustrating the difference

between the land-related wars of the past, and the waterrelated conflict at present: where the issues that gave rise
to land-conflict before were humanist issues like slavery
and a general desire of countries to protect their rights,
now, the water-war is a bigger deal, and is all about
countries (particularly China) wanting to exercise
whatever power theyve got in an attempt to advance their
own economic prowess.

An example is the Taiwan Strait:

The conflict is thus framed as a portrait of Realism. To

put it in perspective, realism, as an artistic/literary
movement, is exactly what it sounds like, in that it
reflects human conflict and experience exactly as it is at
face value, without the abstract embellishments of moral
struggles and fighting for rights.

Other examples are the maritime distances between

Japan and Korea, South Korea and China, Japan's Ryuku
Islands and China, Chinas Hainan Island and Vietnam.

So applied to this water-war, Kaplan is implying that

there is really nothing more to the conflict right now than
the desire of the countries to outdo each other by using
whatever military and economic prowess they have to
boost their status as international powers by means of
a rightful claim to the South China Sea.
THE HUMANIST DILEMMA
In a nutshell, the humanist dilemma is exactly what we
just said that there is nothing grounding the desire of
countries to fight over the water except a thirst for power.
Humanists wouldnt like that because such a fight is
purposeless, and does nothing to advance humanity or its
sense of morality.
Kaplan expounds on this point by telling a few stories:

It is a hundred miles wide, but still four times wider than

the English Channel (across which the Allied invasion
came).
So even if China engages Taiwan in a war, it would be
difficult to occupy the country because of the "one
hundred miles of water between it and the mainland"

Then, he talks about the interest in the South China Sea

in particular:
So imagine daw South East Asia as a cluster of countries
that want to "advance their perceived territorial rights
beyond their own shores", particularly, at the
"geographical meeting place of all these states, which is
the South China Sea.
China, has also decided to come in as the bully country, in
that it is trying to claim the area by pushing its navy out
that way (the Fist Island Chain in the Western Pacific).
So why all the fuss over it? The South China Sea's
credentials:

First, he talks about why anyone would care so much

about water, to the point that they fight over it the way
they do:

So the wars of the past mostly happened in Europe, over

its dry land. The conflict now, however, is happening in
East Asia, over its waters.

Why fight over water? For the following reasons:

it has the power to protect territory

it is a "barrier to aggression
it creates clearly defined borders
it has the potential to reduce conflict"

it is the mass of connective economic tissue

where the global sea routes coalesce
it is the heart of Eurasia's navigable rimland
more than half the world's annual merchant fleet
tonnage passes through there, as well as a third of
all maritime traffic worldwide
the oil that is transported through it is triple the
amount that passes through the Suez Canal, and
fifteen times the amount that transits the Panama
Canal
2/3 of South Korea's energy supplies, 60% of
Japan and Taiwan's energy supplies, and 80% of
China's crude oil imports go through it
energy, finished goods, and unfinished goods go
through it
it contains oil reserves of 7 billion barrels, and
900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas

Then, he talks about what is fuelling that interest:

As it is, the South China Sea is claimed by Brunei,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China.
China is being the biggest dick about it though, saying
that its historic maps give it a better right than all these
other countries that are trying to lay claim to it with 'help'
from the United States.
Kaplan says that the interest here is globalization, trade,
and a general sense of competition.
He points out how this wasn't the problem during the days
of the British Empire because the "Crown" reigned
supreme, and there was a great "emphasis on free trade
and freedom of navigation" but that is no longer the
case now, what with the countries constantly pitting their
warships against each other in frequent close
encounters in the South China Sea.
Now going back to what we said about China being a
dick, one guy this official from one of the other nations
(the littoral states) pointed out that China has no
justification for its claims, and are sticking to a "Middle
Kingdom mentality", effectively "denying [the littoral
states] their rights to their own continental shelf". China
is merely riding on its growing military and economic
power to dominate the other countries. The official said
that dealing with China requires US Naval presence,
because as it is, China has built and placed all kinds of
military contraptions on reefs and shoals within the South
China Sea.
Kaplan also points out how China's behavior with regard
to the South China Sea is a lot like how America was with
the Caribbean Sea in the nineteenth century. Back then,
the US recognized the European claim over the
Caribbean, but tried to dominate it anyway. The US
finally became a world power after the Spanish-American
War of 1898. China is getting there, given its now rising
military prowess...
TBC