Pakistan and has been ranked as number 3 on the basis of its size. UBLs balance sheet has crossed the 1 trillion mark recently at the 2013 year end and showed a growth of 13% over the year 2012, which makes it a Large bank as per KPMGs classification of big banks 2013. UBL has the 2nd largest branch network in Pakistan with 1,281 branches. PAST PERFORMANCE: The profit after tax has been continuously increasing for UBL and in just the last year i.e. 2013, it showed a growth of 4% which was directly reflected in its increased share price also. The net interest income has been over a period of 5 years, first showed an increasing trend but later, during the past two years since the interest rates have been declining and almost declined by 500bps i.e. 5% so therefore in 2013 and 2014 the net interest income has been declining. But this negative impact can be offset by looking at the strong CASA ratio that stood at 83%. However the non-interest income has constantly been on the rise for UBL, among which a major growth was seen in the fee and commission income received. UBL has faced a severe spread compression and thats primarily due to increased competitiveness in the banking sector and the declining interest rates. But still as per KPMG, UBL stands at no. 3 in terms of its spread, as it has been effective enough to cope up by increasing its non-interest income. A worth mentioning fact is that the NPLs have considerably declined in 2012, and
further improves UBLs liquidity position.
Thus we can say that UBL has lowered the credibility risk it was exposed to previously. In terms of its liquidity, it cannot be said that the bank is facing high liquidity risk just because its cash on hand to total assets is low. The bank has seen increase in its current and saving deposits over the years and also is trying to increase its deposit base. So these deposits increases can be used to meet the short term obligations along with the most liquid investments i.e. heavy investment by UBL in Government securities. Also The CAR was maintained at 13.3% which was above the SBP requirements and thus makes it a safe bank. The advances to deposit ratio, though still above than 50% has been declining, which indicates the inefficiency of management in converting deposits into high earning advances, and that too can be attributed to the increased deposit base but coupled with a comparatively low growth in advances, and most importantly the increasing NPLs over 2008-11. FUTURE OUTLOOK: Primarily a banks earning depends upon the net interest income therefore much of UBLs profitability like any other bank will rely on what the future holds for the interest rates. Since the banking sector is becoming highly competitive with passage of time therefore, one needs to take a little risk to earn more. So UBL if shift from heavy investment in the government instruments towards private sector, that will decide its profitability in future and its spread improvement if any in future.