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ABSTRACT: The degree of certainty in pore pressure estimates from resistivity data is examined through a case study
interpreted by eight trained analysts. The relevant data included resistivity, gamma ray, density, and mud weight as a function of
depth. A shallow kick pressure and several deeper MDTs were provided for calibration.
While the models and tools are quite simple, the shale pressures are derived from several measurements and decisions. The results
from each analysts interpretation were compiled and combined with some theoretical analysis to estimate the uncertainty attached
to components used to estimate shale pore pressure. Two sources of variation dominate the uncertainty in estimating pore pressure
from resistivity:
1.
2.
trust that sand pressure calibration points are representative of shale pressures, and
choice of the normal compaction trend.
Uncertainties in shale pore pressure ranged as low as plus or minus 0.25 ppge to as much as plus and minus 0.75 ppge depending
on these decisions. Other factors accounted for approximately less than 0.1 ppge in regions of good data. An approach for
minimizing and quantifying the impact they have on an analysis is discussed.
1. INTRODUCTION
Uncertainty is defined by Merriam - Websters
dictionary (2004) as something that is not known
beyond doubt, not clearly identified or defined, and
untrustworthy.
The calculation of pore pressure and other
parameters is commonly done deterministically. It
is assumed, without error that the measurements
respond only to pore pressure as a result of
compaction disequilibrium. Therefore the value
accurately represents the pore pressure at all depths
for which it is calculated. However, when we
examine the output of this calculation we often see
that it has substantial variation. This variation does
not always reasonably represent our interpretation
3. OVERBURDEN
Overburden is ideally determined by the summation
of density data from the surface to total depth (TD).
However, this information is rarely complete from
surface to total depth. Commonly the near surface
data is absent and must be estimated. Deep data
may be available from density logs or can be
estimated from seismic data or checkshots.
Intermediate data often consists of a joining of the
shallow and deep density datasets.
Data
Lithology
Bias
Problems
RFT/MDT
RFT/MDT
RFT/MDT
Sand
Sand
Sand
Low
High
High or low
Shut in
Drill Pipe
Pressure
Sand
Slightly low
Kill mud
weight
Sand
Slightly
high/low
Mud
weight in
general
Various
Previous
experience
in the area
Bad seal
Centroid
Uncertainty due to
extrapolation
towards a long time
frame due to low
permeability
Uncertainty in
cuttings volume,
even after
circulating bottoms
up, and friction in
lines.
Adjusted until they
can live with it.
May be high to kill
it for sure or low
and live with a
little fluid/gas
influx
Too uncertain
without additonal
information from
the well such as
connection gas,
mud loss/gain,
cutting
morphology, etc.
REFERENCES
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