Opening Bell

December 17, 2014

US CPI YoY, eurozone CPI YoY, US current
account balance, Japan trade balance
Index Movement (past one month)

26000

8000

25000

Key Developments

8-Dec

BSE (RHS)

Strides Arcolab has received USFDA approval for Calcitriol soft gel
capsules used for treatment of patients with kidney disease who
have vitamin D deficiency. According to IMS, the US market for
generic Calcitriol soft gel capsules is ~US$50 million
As per media sources, in response to the unseasonal rain and
hailstorm in North Maharashtra & Konkan regions, in the previous
week and consequent loss of crops, the Government of Maharashtra
has announced an aid of | 10,000/hectare for dry land farmers and
| 15,000/hectare aid for fruit growers in the region
A special court has rejected CBI's closure report on Hindalco in the
coal block allocation case. It further ruled that investigation is needed
and sought the Coal Ministers statement in allocation of coal blocks
Tech Mahindra has invested $100 million to drive innovation and
entrepreneurship within the company and build vertical-specific
solutions with co-creation of products with partners & customers
The world's largest 750 MW solar power station will come up in Rewa
district's Gudh, Madhya Pradesh to be part funded by World bank
(50% debt) and by a JV between the Central and state government
(balance 50%)

Sensex
Nifty

16-Dec

8200
12-Dec

27000

10-Dec

8400

4-Dec

28000

2-Dec

8600

28-Nov

29000

26-Nov

8800

24-Nov

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets closed negative as India's trade deficit widened to
the highest in 18 months amid weak global cues. The global triggers
included crude oil prices going below $60/barrel and failure of an
emergency interest rate rise to stabilise Russias rouble
US markets closed negative due to lower crude oil prices amid
caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated monetary
policy announcement on Wednesday

Todays Highlights

20-Nov

Market Outlook
The volatility in global equity, currency and commodities markets has
got heightened on geopolitical tensions emanating from Russia.
Long term investors may start staggered investments at current
levels while preparing for more volatility.

NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

26,781 27,320
-2.0
-4.8
29.0
17.2
8,068
8,068
0.0
-6.1
28.0
17.2

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY12
127,034
-55,516

CY13 YTD CY14 Yesterday Last 5 Days

112,221
103,758
-1,247
-3,105
-74,124
-36,330
535
1,788

World Indices Monthly performance

Shanghai
3,045
21.9%
France
4,093
-2.6%

Germany
9,564
3.4%
Nasdaq
4,548
-3.0%

Kospi
1,906
-2.1%
NSE
8,068
-3.8%

Dow Jones
17,069
-2.6%
Nikkei
16,825
-4.2%

BSE
26,781
-2.6%
U.K.
6,332
-4.8%

Nifty Heat Map

HCL Tech
Bharti
Airtel
Axis Bank
Lupin
Maruti
ONGC
Cairn
India
ITC
DLF
Tata
power

1,558.9
5.0%
350.1
0.0%
472.0
-1.0%
1,425.3
-1.4%
3,309.9
-1.7%
335.6
-2.2%
235.7
-2.6%
380.6
-3.0%
139.3
-3.8%
79.9
-4.8%

TCS
BHEL

2,443.1
3.6%
247.8
-0.4%

Power
Grid

133.1

Grasim
Ind

3,365.9

Kotak
Bank

1,283.5

NMDC
Coal India

-1.0%
-1.5%
-1.9%
134.4
-2.3%
366.8
-2.7%

United
Spirits

2,761.9

Ambuja
Cement

218.9

SBI

-3.1%
-4.1%
295.6
-4.8%

BPCL

647.5
1.7%

Hero
Moto

3,132.8

Asian
Paints

758.9

RIL
M&M
PNB
Tata Steel
HDFC Ltd
JSPL
Hindalco

-0.4%
-1.1%
864.6
-1.6%
1,227.5
-2.0%

Tech M.
Wipro
L&T
Sun
Pharma
Ultratech

1,071.9 Indusind
Bank
-2.3%
389.7
-2.8%
1,086.9
-3.3%
132.0
-4.2%
144.8
-5.5%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

HUL
IDFC
ICICI
Bank
Dr Reddy

2,534.6
1.6%
536.8
-0.9%
1,483.4
-1.2%
830.2
-1.7%
2,484.9
-2.0%
763.8
-2.4%
766.7
-3.0%
151.7
-3.4%
330.7
-4.2%
3,142.4
-6.4%

Infosys
Bajaj
Auto
Cipla
HDFC
Bank
GAIL
Tata
Motors
ACC
NTPC

1,938.0
0.7%
2,494.8
-0.9%
623.4
-1.4%
925.8
-1.7%
413.5
-2.1%
481.7
-2.5%
1,392.0
-3.0%
128.3
-3.5%

Bank of
Baroda

1,008.5

Sesa
Sterlite

193.6

-4.6%
-7.8%

Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)

27,147
36,799
59.1
6409.5

27,386
37,844
60.0
6447.5

-0.9
-2.8
-1.5
-0.6

3.3
3.1
-15.8
0.0

-1.4
-15.2
-46.7
-13.1

63.54
1.25
116.77

62.95
1.25
116.41

0.9
0.0
0.3

-2.4
0.4
1.6

-2.7
-9.0
-9.8

48.8
11.0
40.1
31.0
48.5

49.1
11.3
41.3
30.9
52.2

-0.6
-2.9
-3.1
0.4
-7.1

-5.9
NA
-8.8
-9.0
-6.9

42.5
NA
34.2
9.1
27.2

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Sectoral Index
Sector

20000

9-Dec

10-Dec

11-Dec

12-Dec

15-Dec

3,551
18,260

5000

2,924
14,012

10000

2,976
16,361

15000
3,307
16,409

0
BSE Cash

16-Dec

NSE Cash

9-Dec

10-Dec

11-Dec

215,422

500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0

401,964

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

242,100

Prior Values
4,757.51bln IN
-7.8bln mo
26.1bln $
314.66bln $
5.70%
4.50%
39.4bln $
2.50%
2.50%
-34.6bln $
13.35bln $
2.70%
0.40%
1.77%
2.43%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%

283,719

Latest Values
10.1bln mo
25.96bln $
5.30%
4.70%
42.82bln $
-4.20%
-7.60%
38.6bln $
16.86bln $
0.63%
-4.91%
2.04%
4.00%
8.00%
7.00%

3,041
15,513

Release Date
31-Dec
03~08Dec
10~15Dec
19-Dec
28-Nov
30-May
10~15Dec
12-Dec
12-Dec
03~08Dec
10~15Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec
2-Dec

203,090

Period
Nov
Q3
Nov
w/e
Q2
12M
Nov
Oct
Oct
Q3
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
N/A
N/A
N/A

3,040
16,149

Key Domestic Economic Indicator

Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate

244,844

Key Data Points

12-Dec

15-Dec

16-Dec

NSE Derivative

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

Auto

18304.9

18604.0

-299.1

-1.6

1118000

Banks

20435.9

21048.3

-612.4

-2.9

6261000

BSE Small Cap

10628.6

10997.9

-369.3

-3.4

110697000

Capital Goods

8437000

14841.8

15091.8

-250.0

-1.7

Consumer Durables

9145.6

9372.8

-227.2

-2.4

538000

FMCG

7790.1

8038.0

-247.9

-3.1

2032000

Healthcare

14479.6

14888.4

-408.8

-2.7

1088000

IT

10264.6

10096.7

168.0

1.7

1070000

Metals

10119.1

10559.9

-440.7

-4.2

7071000

Mid Cap

9764.7

10062.6

-297.9

-3.0

78293000

Oil & Gas

9611.7

9751.8

-140.1

-1.4

2819000

Power

1952.1

2000.4

-48.3

-2.4

15108000

PSU

7778.8

7993.5

-214.7

-2.7

18494000

Real Estate

1498.2

1557.4

-59.2

-3.8

16902000

Banks
FMCG
Healthcare
Auto
Mid Cap
BSE Small Cap
PSU
Consumer Durables
Capital Goods
Power
Real Estate
IT
Metals
Oil & Gas
-15.0

4.6
3.7
0.3
-0.3
-0.9
-2.0
-2.8
-4.7
-5.0
-5.8
-6.7
-7.3
-7.4
-10.0
-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

(%)

Key News for Today

Company/Industry
Mahindra and
Mahindra

News
Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) is looking to
observe plant shutdowns at various plants
across the country to align production with
demand. The "no production days" could range
from one to seven days. This exercise is
expected to run till March 2015

View
M&M has witnessed more weakness on
the demand side vis--vis the PV market
due to lack of new products. On the
tractors side, a sudden demand dip has
also hit the major. This shutdown is
prudent to manage fixed costs in a weak
demand environment

Jagran Prakashan Jagran Prakashan has forayed into the radio

business with the acquisition of Radio City FM
stations. The acquisition is an all-cash deal,
though the exact valuations remain unavailable
as of now

Radio City operates in 20 FM stations

with a presence in metros and a listener
base of about 10.8 million. This
acquisition will enable Jagran to have a
sizeable presence in the radio industry
and enable the company to benefit from
rapid growth in radio advertising
revenues

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Impact

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Positive if it holds 61.8% level

despite negative global cues ... weak mode
may continue otherwise ... " The index opened
gap-down on negative global cues and failing
to hold the 61.8% level, tanked as much as
538 points or 1.9% for the day. Except IT, all
sectors lost 1.4% to 4.1% each. The A/D
worsened further to extremely negative 1:10.
The action formed the biggest bear candle in
two months. It formed an eighth consecutive
lower high-low. Seen against maximum eight
lower high-lows since May 2012 and 10 lower
high-lows since October 2005, the index
appears oversold. This can result in a sharp
counter-rally in one or two days. However,
until that actually happens, the bias would
remain negative.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks

Close
26781.44
8067.60
1391.95
440.55
40.20
1605.20
117.70
81.65
1124.35
223.25
252.25
45.90
758.85
1095.85
2494.75
1008.50
278.55
1269.55

SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI POWER
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSPITALS
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BOI
BATA INDIA

S1
26612.00
8017.00
1373.45
437.80
38.75
1578.50
114.85
79.45
1104.95
217.90
249.05
44.80
751.55
1069.75
2467.55
985.95
271.50
1246.45

S2
26510.15
7987.00
1366.85
435.05
38.55
1567.55
113.40
78.75
1097.55
215.60
245.90
44.25
747.50
1059.70
2455.80
977.95
269.30
1238.10

R1
26843.55
8085.40
1397.20
443.25
40.70
1615.95
118.80
82.55
1130.90
223.95
252.25
46.20
759.05
1097.35
2498.45
1016.80
278.80
1272.60

R2
26959.35
8119.60
1409.10
445.95
41.70
1634.70
120.80
84.10
1143.90
226.95
253.90
46.90
762.80
1111.15
2513.90
1032.20
282.45
1285.70

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) December 2014

7700
7800
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500

16
23
45

150.0

39
47
70

85
47
51
40

100.0

50.0

106
104
120
0.0
Call

50.0
Put

Intraday

Short Term

Trend
Trend Reversal

Range bound
0

Range bound
0

Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

8050-8020
8100-8140
0
0

7950
8400
8350
7602

Advances / Declines
Advances
518
179

BSE
NSE

Declines
2362
1366

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy Tech Mahindra above 2550.00
2. Sell IDFC below 157.00
3. Sell Century Textile in range of 497-498
*All recommendations are of December Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Buy JUBFOO Dec Fut at 1310.00-1314.00
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 1324
Target 2: 1340
Stop Loss: 1295.50
Market Lot: 250
CMP : 1295

29

93

Nifty

Intraday Derivative Strategy

2
2

128

Trend
-ve
-ve
-ve
Neutral
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve
-ve

100.0

150.0

Sell STABAN Dec Fut at 299.50-300.20

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 297.20
Target 2: 294.20
Stop Loss: 302.80
Market Lot: 1250
CMP : 298.40

See Daily Derivatives for more details

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Unchanged
82
41

Results/Events Calendar

24

November
Monday

Markit US Service PMI

Markit US Composite PMI
0
0
0

01

December
Monday

HSBC India Manu. PMI

Markit Japan Manu. PMI
Markit EC Manu. PMI
Markit UK Manu. PMI
Mankit US Manu. PMI

08

December
Monday

Japan Current Account Bal.

0
0
0
0

15

December
Monday

India WPI YoY

US Industrial Prod. MoM
US manufacturing Prod.
0
0

22
0
0
0
0
0

December
Monday

25

26

November
Tuesday

Eight Infra Industries Ind

US GDP Annualized QoQ
0
0
0

02

UK GDP YoY
Initial Jobless Claims (US)
Continuing Claims (US)
US New Home Sales
0

03

December
Tuesday

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
RBI Repurchase Rate
EC PPI YoY
0

09

10

Tuesday

UK Industrial Production YoY

UK Manu. Production YoY
0
0
0

16

17

December
Tuesday

23

24

December
Tuesday

25

December

Major Economic Events this week

12

December
Thursday

Friday

19

Thursday

Friday

26

December
Thursday

0
0
0
0
0

Friday

06

December

13

December

20

December

27

December

Saturday

Saturday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

December
Friday

India Eight Infra Industries

Japan CPI YoY
Japan Industrial Prod. YoY
0
0

November

0
0
0
0
0

December

ECB Current Account

0
0
0
0

29
0
0
0
0
0

December

India CPI YoY

India Industrial Prod YoY
China Industrial Prod YoY
Japan Industrial Production
UK Construction Output

December

US Initial Jobless Claims

US Continuing Claims
Markit US Comp. PMI
Markit US Service PMI
0

Wednesday

0
0
0
0
0

UK GDP YoY
UK Current Account Balance
US GDP Annualised QoQ
0
0

18

December

US CPI YoY
Eurozone CPI YoY
US Current Account Balance
Japan Trade Balance
0

HSBC China Manu. PMI

Markit Eurozone Manu. PMI
UK CPI YoY
Markit US Manu. PMI
0

Thursday

US Initial Jobless Claims

US Continuing Claims
0
0
0

Wednesday

November

US Trade Balance
US Unemployment Rate
EC GDP SA YoY
0
0

11

December

05

December

0
0
0
0
0

Wednesday

India Exports YoY

India Imports YoY
Japan PPI YoY
China CPI YoY
0

Thursday

India GDP YoY

India Fiscal Deficit
Japan Industrial production
EC CPI Core YoY
EC Unemployment Rate

04

December

28

November

0
0
0
0
0

Wednesday

HSBC India Service PMI

China Non-Manu. PMI
Markit EC Service PMI
Markit EC Composite PMI
EC GDP YoY

December

27

November

Wednesday

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Bulk Deals

Date
15-Dec
15-Dec
15-Dec
16-Dec
16-Dec
16-Dec
16-Dec

Event
CountryPeriod
Wholesale Prices YoY
IN
Nov
Industrial Production MoM
US
Nov
Manufacturing (SIC) Production US
Nov
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI CH
Dec P
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing EC
Dec P
CPI YoY
UK
Nov
Markit US Manufacturing PMI US
Dec P

Date
17-Dec
17-Dec
17-Dec
17-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
18-Dec
19-Dec

Event
Trade Balance
CPI YoY
CPI YoY
Current Account Balance
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Markit US Composite PMI
Markit US Services PMI
ECB Current Account SA

Actual Expected
0.00%
1.10%
1.30%
0.70%
1.10%
0.70%
49.5
49.8
50.8
50.6
1.00%
1.20%
53.7
56.0

CountryPeriod Expected Previous

JN
Nov
-992.0B -710.0B
EC
Nov F
0.30%
-US
Nov
1.50%
1.70%
US
3Q
-$97.5B -$98.5B
US
13-Dec
-294K
US
6-Dec
-2514K
US
Dec P
-56.1
US
Dec P
-56.2
EC
Oct
-30.0B

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Company
BSE*
Naysaa Securities Ltd
NRB Indus. Bearings Ltd.
Zenith Fibres Ltd

No. of
shares Price (|)

Client Name

Type

Alacrity Securities Limited

Acacia Institutional Partners
Wallfort Financial Services Ltd

Sell
Sell
Buy

24,000
150,000
50,000

14.5
30.4
49.6

Acacia Institutional Partners

Sell

452,582

30.4

NSE*
NRB Indus. Bearings Ltd.

Recent Releases
Date

Report

16 December 14

Management Meet Update- MPS

16 December 14

Initiating Coverage- CARE

10 December 14

Management Meet Update- Gandhi Special Tubes

08 December 14

Management Meet Update- APL Apollo

05 December 14

Company Update - Infosys

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Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks

A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large

cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment

Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN

Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain

Weekly

1-7 days

5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

10%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest

Not regularly
recommended

3 months

20%

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

Fortnightly
Fortnightly every
alternate Wednesday

> 7-15
days

5 7%

When published

> 1 year

> 20% &

above

Quarterly

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer
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subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research