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DAILY MARKET REVIEW

November 12, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY
Markets at a Glance

HSX

Close

HNX

604.01

91.13

(0.04%)

+1.41%

126,581,590

80,476,769

2,054

1,174

641.89

185.92

130

125

Losers

80

76

Unchanged

74

68

HSX

HNX

Foreign Buying (VNDbn)

78.2(3.8%)*

20.5(1.7%)*

Foreign Selling (VNDbn)

97.9(4.8%)*

18.6(1.6%)*

(19.7)

1.9

1 Day Change (%)


Volume (Shares)
Value (VNDbn)
HSX/HNX-30
Gainers

Foreign Activity

Net Buying/Selling
* % Total Value

Table of Contents:
Market Commentary

Page 1-2

Technical Analysis

Page 3

HSX Indices

Page 4

Economic News

Page 5

Recommendation

Page 6

Major Market Movers

Page 7

HSX Sector Performance

Page 8

Top 5 (By Market Cap) For Each Sector

Page 9

ETF Trading

Page 10

International Markets

Page 11

Neighboring Markets

Page 12

Contact Information

Page 13

Disclaimer

Page 14

www.VPBS.com.vn

The VN-Index edged down while the HNX-Index


surpassed 91
The VN-Index and HNX-Index, after ticking up early
today, continued to move sideways around 605 and 90
respectively thanks to stable supply and demand
forces. On the HSX, certain tickers, such as ASM, BSI,
DIG, DLG, ITA, KBC, PPI, SRC, VHG, VNE, attracted a
strong cash inflow and gained sharply. However, as
blue-chips turned red, including FPT, GAS, GMD, KDC,
MSN, the VN-Index closed with a 0.04% decline to
604.01. Meanwhile, on the HNX, alongside heavy
demand for securities and petrol tickers, including
BVS, KLS, VND, PGS, PVC, PVS, and PVX; KLF
continued to hit its ceiling price. ACB also rose when
news concerning its additional purchase of 17.4 million
shares as treasury shares was released. Taken
together, they boosted the HNX-Index by 1.41% to
reach 91.13. Trading volume on both exchanges,
though falling marginally from yesterday, still stood at
a relatively high level.
Foreign investors today net sold VND19.7 billion
(USD934,000) on the HSX with EIB, GAS, PVD. On the
HNX, they net bought mainly AAA, BVS, PLC, SHS,
VND, worth VND1.9 billion (USD90,000).
The VN-Index, with todays minor decrease, traded
sideways above the MA100 and below the MA50.
Meanwhile the HNX-Indexs breakthrough 90-91
further confirms the possibility of an uptrend. The
market movements today demonstrate that the
demand forces have restored confidence at high
prices, which acts as a positive signal. Therefore, we
believe that investors could increase their weight of
stocks when the market maintains its positive signals
over the next several sessions.

Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report

Page | 1

SBV issues new Circular to tighten bank operation and deal with
cross-ownership in the banking system.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently issued the Circular 30/2014/TT-NHNN
(Circular 30) which comes into effect on January 1, 2015. The circular
stipulates rules on trustee companies and entrustment receiving profession of
the foreign credit institutions and bank branches.
This Circular replaces Circular 04/2012/TT-NHNN. It overcomes the limitation of
Circular 04 and simultaneously prevents cross-ownership in banking systems.
The new circular introduces the concept of entrustment profession and
entrustment receiving profession of foreign credit institutions and bank
branches. Particularly, credit institutions and bank branches are granted the
right to entrust and receive entrustment on the following activities: lending,
financial leasing, capital contribution, purchasing shares, investment in
production or business projects, purchasing corporate bonds. Additionally, this
circular also provides guided some specific cases when foreign credit
institutions, bank branches and financial leasing companies could entrust and
receive entrustment legally.
Furthermore, Circular 30 also stipulates the strict regulation in granting credit
when the credit institutions aim to process entrustment and receive
entrustment. An expert in banking systems commented that some banks
avoided the prevailing regulation to carry out the activities of entrustment and
receiving entrustment with the aim of controlling the financial market. Hence,
Circular 30 is a step in the restructuring of the banking industry that should
improve Vietnams transparency in the eyes of foreign investors.

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 2

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
HSX Daily Chart (3 Month)

VN-Index
Closed above the MA100: The VN-Index moved
sideways in a narrow band today before closing near
the lower band. The technical chart showed a small
black cande with high volume, reflecting the
accumulation in volume of HSXs stocks. The index
was still held below the resistance level of 608 - 610,
formed by the MA50 but in a positive sign, it closed
today above the MA100, which was at 603.
Outlook: The VN-Index is likely to rise tomorrow in an
attempt to break through the threshold of 608 - 610.

HNX Daily Chart (3 Month)

HNX-Index
Broke through the Bollinger Bands: The HNXIndex rose sharply today, approaching its previous
peak at 91.9. The technical chart showed a long white
candle with high volume, which broke through the
upper band of the Bollinger Bands. It was a positive
signal, which may initiate a new uptrend for the HNXIndex.
Outlook: The HNX-Index is likely to double check the
upper Bollinger band at 90.8 91.0 before closing with
a gain.

Vn30 Daily Chart (3 Month)

VN30 - Index
Accumulated below the MA100: The VN30
dropped slightly today and formed a small spinning
top on its technical chart. The index was supported by
the MA5 at 640 - 641 but still held below the resistance
level of the MA100, which was at 644. This was the
third consecutive session that the VN30 accumulated
in volume below this threshold and we believe that it
will generate a break-out signal soon.
Outlook:

The VN30 could rise tomorrow in an

attempt to break through the MA100.

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 3

HSX INDICES
VNSmall

732.5

1.40%

VNMidcap

760

700

740

680

720

660

700

668.92

0.40%

640

680

620

660

600

640
580

620

560

600
580

540

560

520

540
08/14

VN100

09/14

584.92

10/14

11/14

500
08/14

0.05%

VNAllshare

690

690

670

670

650

650

630

630

610

610

590

590

570

570

550

550

530

530

510

510

490
08/14

09/14

10/14

11/14

490
08/14

09/14

593.62

09/14

10/14

11/14

0.15%

10/14

11/14
Source: HSX

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 4

DOMESTIC NEWS

ECONOMIC NEWS

Vietnams
consumer
confidence rebounds

According to the most recent data on consumer confidence released by


Nielsen, a global information and measurement company, Vietnams
consumer confidence index in the third quarter of 2014 makes a quantum leap
of four points from a quarter earlier and three points from last year. Although
savings still top the list of popularity, the number of respondents who prefer
savings diminishes for the first time in several years. The propensity to
consume is now shifting towards holidays, new clothing, latest technological
products, household appliances replacement, and outdoor activities. Despite
increasing expenditures, 77% of Vietnamese consumers, after covering living
expenses, still put their idle money in savings account.

Vietnamese banks assets are


on the rise

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently posted the healthiest trend in
operation of credit institutions over the past few months with remarkable
improvements in key indicators. In particular, as of September 30, total assets
of the whole system peaked at VND6,160 trillion (USD292 billion), up 6.12%
and up VND95,464 billion (USD4.5 billion) from August. Total assets acquired
by state-owned commercial banks and joint stock commercial banks swelled
by 8.53% and 5.66%, respectively, as compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the same
figures for joint venture and foreign banks, and financial leasing companies
fell by 1% and 3.7%, respectively. The amount of banks contributed capital
totaled VND496.3 trillion (USD23.5 billion) in the first nine months, up 3.4%.
Further, the capital adequacy ratio of credit institutions far exceeded SBVs
requirements, standing at 13.43% as of September.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
New bank rules proposed to
end too big to fail

After the financial crisis in 2007 - 2009, governments had to spend billions of
dollars of taxpayer money to rescue banks that ran into trouble and could
have threatened the global financial system if allowed to go under. Since then,
regulators from the Group of 20 economies have been trying to find ways to
prevent this from happening again. The plans proposed by the Financial
Stability Board envisage that global banks, such as Goldman Sachs (GS.N)
and HSBC (HSBA.L), should have a buffer of bonds or equity equivalent to at
least 16% to 20% of their risk-weighted assets, such as loans, from January
2019. The new rule will apply to 30 banks deemed to be globally "systemically
important", though initially three from China on that list of 30 would be
exempt.

Brent crude prices hit a fouryear


low
on
oversupply
concerns

Brent crude prices slid to another four-year low on expectations that the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would defer action
to rein in ample global oil supplies. Oil prices have tumbled for months, as
moderate demand growth appeared insufficient to absorb growing crude
supplies. Many market watchers expect that OPEC, which controls more than
one-third of global oil production, to maintain its collective output target at its
coming meeting on November 27. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 67 cents,
or 0.8%, to USD81.67 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe, the lowest
settlement price since October 19, 2010. Brent prices are down 29% from midJune highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the International
Energy Agency and OPEC all cut their forecasts for global oil demand growth
in recent months.

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 5

RECOMMENDATION

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 6

MAJOR MARKET MOVERS


Top 5 Gainers on HSX (*)

Top 5 Gainers on HNX (*)

Code

Price

Net Chg

%+/- T

%+/-T+3

Volume

Code

Price

Net Chg

%+/- T

%+/-T+3

Volume

SRC

38,500

2,500

6.9%

4.1%

409,530

ITQ

14,300

1,300

10.0%

23.3%

422,153

BSI

10,800

700

6.9%

6.9%

PPI

14,300

900

6.7%

3.6%

684,310

KLF

14,300

1,300

10.0%

20,442,392

1,843,890

VIX

62,400

5,600

9.9%

26.8%

739,120

CMG

10,300

500

5.1%

6.2%

204,930

S99

12,600

1,100

9.6%

8.6%

1,215,077

VHG

16,600

800

5.1%

3.1%

5,429,610

PCT

7,100

600

9.2%

12.7%

1,368,264

Top 5 Losers on HSX (*)

Top 5 Losers on HNX (*)

Code

Price

Net Chg

%+/- T

%+/-T+3

Volume

Code

Price

Net Chg

%+/- T

%+/-T+3

Volume

PXL

4,300

(100)

-0.2%

288,900

VCS

27,900

(200)

-0.7%

-1.8%

121,400

HSG

50,500

(1,000)

-0.2%

-1.0%

133,520

SD6

15,800

(100)

-0.6%

0.6%

228,870

VHC

57,000

(1,000)

-0.2%

2.7%

920,420

API

14,900

-1.3%

390,900

SBA

11,700

(200)

-0.2%

-4.1%

183,890

PVG

12,000

-0.8%

121,300

KDC

61,500

(1,000)

-0.2%

-0.8%

473,810

CEO

17,000

1.8%

1,040,350

(*) (Market cap. > 150 VNDbn, Volume > 100,000


Top 5 Volume on HSX
Code

Top 5 Volume on HNX (*)

Price

Net Chg

%+/- T

%+/-T+3

Volume

Price

Net Chg

%+/- T

%+/-T+3

Volume

FLC

12,400

200

1.6%

6.0%

17,430,220

Code
KLF

14,300

1,300

10.0%

23.3%

20,442,392

ITA

9,200

400

4.5%

5.7%

11,077,390

SCR

10,600

400

3.9%

3.9%

8,313,558

VHG

16,600

800

5.1%

3.1%

5,429,610

PVC

36,000

2,300

6.8%

7.1%

4,002,041

OGC

9,000

-2.2%

5,014,620

PVX

6,500

200

3.2%

1.6%

3,878,603

KBC

18,000

300

1.7%

1.1%

4,543,300

SHS

12,500

300

2.5%

5.9%

3,583,214

Sell Vol.

Net Vol.

Net Value

Top 5 Net Buying on HSX by Foreign Investors

Top 5 Net Buying on HNX by Foreign Investors

Code

Price

Buy Vol.

Sell Vol.

Net Vol.

Net Value

Code

Price

Buy Vol.

KBC

18,000

631,550

52,000

579,550

DIG

15,000

442,240

442,240

10,337

SHS

12,500

620,600

620,600

7,701

6,532

VND

14,100

378,000

20,000

358,000

5,036

MWG

101,000

62,060

670

61,390

6,200

BVS

15,300

158,300

10,000

148,300

2,266

FLC

12,400

500,000

10

499,990

6,070

PLC

33,500

56,000

56,000

1,849

VIC

48,800

113,810

17,630

96,180

4,696

SD9

15,300

36,900

36,900

560

Top 5 Net Selling on HSX by Foreign Investors

Top 5 Net Selling on HNX by Foreign Investors

Code

Price

Buy Vol.

Sell Vol.

Net Vol.

Net Value

Code

Price

Buy Vol.

Sell Vol.

Net Vol.

Net Value

GAS

106,000

2,100

218,830

(216,730)

(22,974)

PVS

41,400

330,000

(330,000)

(13,519)

PVD

92,000

13,450

226,240

(212,790)

(19,521)

PVC

36,000

500

61,000

(60,500)

(2,090)

VHC

57,000

99,390

(99,390)

(5,638)

PVE

15,700

48,000

(48,000)

(749)

NBB

20,900

131,990

(131,990)

(2,741)

NBC

12,000

34,500

(34,500)

(414)

BVH

38,800

3,060

72,370

(69,310)

(2,679)

HMH

26,900

900

10,000

(9,100)

(241)

Value: in VNDmn and Volume: in shares

www.VPBS.com.vn

Source: HSX, HNX, Bloomberg

Page | 7

HSX SECTOR PERFORMANCE


Outperforming
110
HSX (Equal Weighted)

100

Energy

Technology

90
80

% Gain /(Loss)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11/13
-10

12/13

01/14

02/14

03/14

04/14

05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

Underperforming
HSX (Equal Weighted)

Consumer

Financials

110

Health Care

Industrials

Materials

100

Utilities

90

% Gain /(Loss)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
11/13
-10

12/13

01/14

02/14

03/14

04/14

05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

Note: We have chosen to present the sector index graphs on an equal weighting basis, whereas the 1-day and 30-day changes in the table
below are on a market-cap weighted basis. We have done this because a few large-cap companies can often dominate the performance
of a sector when measured on a market cap weighted basis, but this does not give investors an accurate picture of the investment
opportunities available there.

GICS SECTORS

Market Cap Weighted

Change 1D (%)

Change 30D (%)

P/E

P/B

23.8%

-0.28%

-1.81%

20.9

1.5

3.5%

0.35%

-2.94%

16.4

2.1

34.2%

0.44%

0.92%

13.8

1.1

Health Care

1.5%

0.02%

4.52%

14.8

1.7

Industrials

7.3%

0.84%

1.69%

14.8

2.1

Information Technology

1.8%

-0.54%

-2.15%

16.5

2.1

Materials

6.5%

-0.04%

1.40%

12.0

1.0

21.3%

-0.80%

-1.86%

10.3

1.4

Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials

Utilities

Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 8

TOP 5 (BY MARKET CAP) FOR EACH SECTOR


Outperforming Sectors on HSX
Technology

Energy

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Average

16.5

2.1

16.5%

FPT

10.5

2.3

23%

Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Change 30D

Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Change 30D

-2.2%

Average

16.4

2.1

29.5%

17,367

-2.9%

GAS

18.0

5.7

0.3

200,870

-6.2%

-2.9%

ELC

14.3

0.9

6%

539

-0.7%

PVD

10.9

2.5

25%

27,879

-8.9%

CMG

16.9

1.1

7%

682

6.2%

PGD

12.3

1.7

14%

2,064

-4.2%

SGT

17.2

0.9

5%

355

9.1%

CNG

8.7

2.5

29%

1,023

-1.8%

TIE

3.1

0.6

19%

152

-6.5%

PGC

9.8

1.2

12%

754

-0.7%

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Change 30D

Underperforming Sectors on HSX


Health Care

Financials
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Change 30D

Average

14.8

1.7

16.0%

4.5%

Average

13.8

1.1

10.6%

DHG

15.4

3.9

28%

8,498

3.7%

VCB

15.3

1.4

11%

72,755

1.1%

TRA

14.1

2.7

22%

1,875

0.0%

CTG

9.2

1.0

11%

53,617

-1.4%

0.9%

JVC

19.0

1.2

7%

2,025

4.3%

VIC

13.4

3.8

29%

70,982

0.4%

OPC

14.3

2.0

15%

791

1.7%

BVH

21.8

2.3

10%

26,402

-4.0%

DMC

9.1

1.7

19%

1,149

1.2%

STB

8.9

1.3

14%

21,822

1.6%

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Change 30D

Industrials

Consumers

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Average

Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Change 30D

14.8

1.1

8.1%

1.7%

Average

20.9

1.5

15.2%

REE

9.2

1.4

0.2

7,624

-4.0%

VNM

18.3

5.7

33%

104,012

-5.5%

ITA

67.9

0.8

1%

6,614

3.4%

MSN

4.3

61,072

1.8%

GMD

6.8

0.8

13%

3,995

-3.6%

KDC

26.4

2.3

9%

15,692

5.1%

BMP

8.2

1.9

25%

3,024

-3.6%

VCF

14.3

4.3

34%

5,316

3.1%

PVT

15.9

1.4

8%

4,580

-0.6%

DRC

14.8

3.5

25%

4,943

-3.3%

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Change 30D

-1.9%

Average

12.0

1.0

11.9%

8.8

2.4

31%

27,710

-1.7%

Utilities

-1.8%

Materials
Market Cap.
(VNDbn)

Code

P/E

P/B

ROE

Change 30D

Average

10.3

1.4

13.3%

PPC

10.9

1.5

14%

8,081

2.8%

HPG

1.4%

VSH

12.2

1.1

8%

3,011

0.7%

DPM

9.5

1.2

12%

11,398

-2.6%

TMP

9.2

2.0

23%

1,785

7.1%

HSG

15.1

2.1

14%

4,864

5.0%

TBC

12.0

1.7

15%

1,600

6.3%

POM

0.7

-2%

1,733

-3.1%

BTP

10.0

0.9

9%

895

3.5%

DPR

5.9

0.8

13%

1,605

-8.3%

Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 9

ETF TRADING
Ticker

NAV

Daily
change
NAV

Shares
Outstanding

Daily
Change in
Share
Outstanding

Daily
Change
price

Last
price

Premium/
Discount

Date of
announcements

VNM

$ 21.20

-0.24%

25,850,000

$ 21.07

-0.14%

-0.62%

Price at 11/11/2014,
NAV at 11/11/2014

FTSE Vietnam

$29.54

-0.22%

14,566,400

$ 29.53

0.00%

-0.03%

Price at 11/11/2014,
NAV at 11/11/2014

Market Vector Vietnam ETF

FTSE Vietnam ETF

Total Share Outstanding


15

29
28
27

14

26
25
24

13

23
22
21

12

20
19
18
17
05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

11
05/14

Difference between Price and NAV (%)

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

Difference between Price and NAV (%)

2%

4%

2%

3%

1%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0%

-1%
-1%

-1%

-2%

-2%
-2%

-3%

-3%

-4%

-3%
05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

-5%
05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected

www.VPBS.com.vn

Page | 10

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Dow Jones

17,614.90

0.01%

Nasdaq

18,000

4,660.56

0.19%

4,760

17,500

4,590

17,000
4,420
16,500
4,250
16,000
4,080

15,500
15,000
08/14

09/14

10/14

FTSE

6,598.94

-0.43%

11/14

7,000

3,910
08/14

09/14

10/14

DAX

9,271.99

-1.04%

09/14

10/14

11/14

10,000

6,800

9,500

6,600
9,000
6,400
8,500
6,200
8,000

6,000
5,800
08/14

NIKKEI 225

09/14

17,197.05

10/14

11/14

0.43%

7,500
08/14

SHANGHAI

17,600

2,600

16,800

2,500

16,000

2,400

15,200

2,300

14,400

2,200

13,600

2,100

12,800
08/14

09/14

10/14

11/14

2,000
08/14

2,494.48

09/14

11/14

1.00%

10/14

11/14

Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected

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Page | 11

NEIGHBORING MARKETS
Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
Jakarta Stock Exchange

MSCI EFM ASIA Index


Philippines Stock Exchange

Bangkok Stock Exchange

148
138
128
118
108
98
88
78
11/13

01/14

03/14

Bangkok Stock Exchange

Jakarta Stock Exchange

Philippines Stock Exchange

Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange

05/14

Market

07/14
Bangkok
Stock
Exchange

09/14
Jakarta
Stock
Exchange

11/14

Philippines
Stock
Exchange

Ho Chi
Minh Stock
Exchange

24

P/E

18.5

19.5

20.9

14.8

20

P/B

2.2

2.5

2.9

2.0

ROE

12.7

12.7

14.5

13.7

ROA

3.0

3.1

3.3

2.6

436.4

386.8

182.0

51.0

(446.2)

4,042.6

786.4

178.2

133.9

74.0

14.3

2.6

2.9

5.8

7.2

5.4

16
12

Market Cap.
(USDbn)
Foreign Net Inflow
- YTD (USDmn)
Foreign Net Inflow
- 5D (USDmn)
GDP Growth
(%yoy)

8
4
0
P/E

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P/B

ROE

ROA

Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected

Page | 12

CONTACT INFORMATION
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Head of Research
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Director - Technical Analysis
ducvm@vpbs.com.vn

Nguyen Ba Hoan
Senior Analyst
hoannb@vpbs.com.vn

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Hoang Thuy Luong


Research Analyst
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Sales & Brokerage
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