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Global:

Silver
Demand:
Total fabrication demand grew by 12.8 percent to a 10-year high of 878.8 Moz in 2010; this surge was led
by the industrial demand category. Last year, silvers use in industrial applications grew by 20.7 percent
to 487.4 Moz, nearly recovering all the recession-induced losses in 2009, and is now seeing pronounced
advances in 2011. Jewelry posted a gain of 5.1 percent, the first substantial rise since 2003, primarily due
to strong GDP gains in emerging markets and the industrialized worlds improving economic picture.
Photography fell by 6.6 Moz, realizing its smallest loss in nine years, as medical centers deferred
conversion to digital systems. Silverware demand fell to 50.3 Moz from 58.2 Moz in 2009, essentially due
to lower demand in India.

supply:
Supply
Silver mine production rose by 2.5 percent to 735.9 Moz in 2010 aided by new projects in Mexico and
Argentina. Gains came from primary silver mines and as a by-product of lead/zinc mining activity,
whereas silver volumes p-roduced as a by-product of gold fell 4 percent last year. Mexico eclipsed Peru
as the worlds largest silver producing country in 2010, and Peru is followed by China, Australia and
Chile. Global primary silver supply recorded a 5 percent increase to account for 30 percent of total mine
production in 2010.

Primary silver mine cash costs remained relatively flat year-on-year, falling by less than 1 percent to
$5.27/oz. from a revised $5.29/oz. in 2009.
Net silver supply from above-ground stocks increased to 142.9 Moz in 2010, primarily due to higher scrap
supply, a shift of net-producer hedging to the supply side, and a considerable rise in net-government
stock sales. Regarding scrap supply, 2010 witnessed a 14 percent increase over 2009 as gains in
industrial and jewelry recycling exceeded an ongoing decline in recovery from photographic sources.
The swing to net-producer hedging of 61.1 Moz ended a four-year run of de-hedging and is attributed to
higher silver prices and was limited to a group of by-product, rather than primary silver producers.
Net government sales of silver rose to 44.8 Moz, primarily the result of increased sales from Russia, with
China and India remaining relatively silent for the second consecutive year.

Gold:

Global gold demand in the third quarter of 2011 increased 6% year-on-year to reach 1,053.9
tonnes, up from 991.1 tonnes in the third quarter of 2010. Gold demand in value terms was
worth a record US$57.7bn up from the previous high of US$45.7bn in the preceding quarter.
The quarterly average price rose 39% from year earlier levels to US$1,702.12, while the gold
price reached a new record of US$1,895.00 (London PM Fix) on 5th and 6th September.

Global gold investment demand reached 468.1 tonnes in the third quarter of 2011, up 33%
from 352.1 tonnes in the corresponding quarter in 2010. The rise in prices led to a record
US$25.6bn in value terms, almost double the US$13.9bn witnessed in Q3 2010.
Demand for gold bars and coins increased 29% to reach 390.5 tonnes, up from 303.0 tonnes
in Q3 2010. In value terms demand for bars and coins in Q3 2011 equated to US$21.4bn
compared to US$12.0bn in Q3 2010.
Gold ETFs and similar products witnessed inflows of 77.6 tonnes in the third quarter of 2011,
which was 58% above year-earlier levels of 49.1 tonnes.
Global demand for gold jewellery of 465.6 tonnes in the third quarter of 2011 was 10% below
year-earlier levels of 518.9 tonnes. In value terms demand reached a quarterly record of
US$25.5bn, 24% higher than the third quarter of 2010, which registered US$20.5bn.
In spite of challenging market conditions, gold demand from the global technology sector
showed significant resilience and was flat year-on-year at 120.2 tonnes. In value terms
demand from the electronics sector was equivalent to a record US$4.8bn.
Central bank net purchases amounted to 148.4 tonnes, as they continued to increase their
allocation to gold as a percentage of total reserves.
Gold supply was 1,034.4 tonnes in the third quarter of 2011, 2% higher than year-earlier levels
of 1,013.0 tonnes. Mine production increased by 5% to 746.2 tonnes from 710.9 tonnes during
the third quarter of 2010.
Despite record prices being reached during the quarter, recycling activity was relatively
modest. Third quarter 2011 gold recycling accounted for 426.5 tonnes of supply, up 13% yearon-year from 379.1 tonne

Lead:
Demand:

Global demand for refined lead metal is forecast to rise by 3.4% to 10.80 million tonnes in 2012 and a further
3.3% to 11.15 million tonnes in 2013.

In China, lead-acid battery production and exports have recovered strongly after the wide-ranging
environmentally motivated cutbacks in 2011 and lead metal usage is expected to grow by 4.8% this year and
4.7% in 2013.

Despite a small downturn in shipments of replacement automotive lead-acid batteries, it is anticipated that
demand for lead metal in the United States will increase by 3.9% in 2012 principally driven by growth in the
original equipment and industrial battery sectors. However, only a limited rise in usage of 0.6% is anticipated in
2013.

European demand is expected to be negatively affected by declining automotive sales and to remain flat in
2012 before increasing by 1.2% in 2013.

Supply

It is anticipated that world lead mine production will rise by 10.9% to 5.21 million tonnes in 2012 and by 2.8% to
5.36 million tonnes in 2013.

These increases are almost entirely due to the further expansion of production in China with output in the rest of
the world forecast to be relatively stable as rises in Mexico, Peru and the Russian Federation are largely offset
by a reduction in Canada.

Expected rises in refined lead metal output of 2.9% in 2012 to 10.90 million tonnes and 3.8% in 2013 to 11.32
million tonnes have been influenced by the opening of both new capacity and the reopening of capacity placed
on care and maintenance in recent years.

This includes the expected reopening of the La Oroya operation in Peru and Glencores Kivcet plant in Italy, the
expansion of Kazzincs UstKamenogorsk plant in Kazakhstan, the opening of secondary operations in Florida
and South Carolina in the United States and the commissioning of new capacity at a number of plants in China.

Nickel:

Copper:
The International Copper Study Group released their October Bulletin, providing a global view of
supply and demand in the base metals market. The comprehensive review suggests that 2014 will
conclude with refined copper demand exceeding production, while 2015 will find a supply surplus as
demand lags production growth. With few suitable substitutes, the supply-side may face considerable
obstacles as demand continues to expand.
Copper first became an integral part of national economies 10,000 years ago in western Asia and has
remained vital to economic development as new and innovative applications have arisen allowing the
metal to be used in mining, refining, recycling and transformational capacities. Despite the average
dollars per tonne declining from 7000.55 in August to 6872.23 in September, copper usage has
increased 12% during the first 7 months of the year. In contrast world mine production has only
increased by 3% with the largest pick-up in refined production (+7%).
The shortfall in supply relative to demand in part comes from declines in production in Indonesia,
Zambia and Australia due to export bans, operational failures and temporary mine closures. Threats to
supply could persist into 2015 as the cost of powering mines by coal increases, political risks to
security and transportation grow and FX risks remain if strong exports drive up domestic costs.
However, despite downside risks annual copper mine production capacity is still expected to expand at
an average rate of 7% per year through 2017, with 56% of the growth to come from Peru, Zambia,
Chile, Mexico and the Democratic Republic of Congo. From a demand perspective growth in China,

which accounts for 40% of global demand, is expected to slow to 5% next year on a cooling real
estate market.
With supply growth projected to edge out demand next year copper prices, as forecasted by the
Chilean Copper Commission, are expected to average 12 cents per pound lower in 2015 than the
current average for 2014 of $ 3.12 per pound.
At present copper is trading below the current years average and rests in the middle of a bearish
price channel on a Daily chart. To trade with the trend, market participants should wait for price to
retrace back toward the top of the price channel before entering the market. If price respects
resistance, look for it to move back toward support in the direction of the trend.

Dimond:
Global demand for diamond jewellery reached a record high of US$79 billion in 2013
according to the inaugural Diamond Insight Report, published today by The De Beers Group
of Companies.
Demand is expected to continue to grow over the long-term, driven by the ongoing economic
recovery in the US (the worlds largest diamond jewellery market) and the growth of the
middle classes in developing markets such as China and India. Sales of polished diamonds in
the US increased seven per cent in 2013, while both India and China have seen their
domestic diamond jewellery markets grow by a compound annual growth rate of 12 per cent
in local currency terms between 2008 and 2013.
The report cautions that while diamonds retain their special allure with consumers around the
world, future demand levels cannot be taken for granted. The overall category is facing
increasingly strong and sophisticated competition from other luxury categories, with
diamonds share of advertising voice in the US market having reduced within its competitive
set.
Global rough diamond production in 2013 increased by seven per cent in carat terms over
2012 levels to a total of around 145 million carats. However, this remains well below the
2005 peak of around 175 million carats. The report further highlights that a forecast
reduction in supply from existing sources will likely not be matched by new production
coming on-stream in the years ahead and diamond supply is expected to plateau in the
second half of the decade before declining from 2020 onwards.

Meanwhile, as mining moves deeper into the earth and towards more remote locations, the
extraction process is becoming increasingly complex and costly. The three principal input
costs labour, electricity and diesel have all seen increases well above local inflation levels
in the main diamond producing countries over the last decade and this trend is set to
continue.
Substantial investment will be required in diamond production, technology and branding,
marketing and retail standards if the industry is to sustain its recent levels of success into the
future, the report says.
Coal:
The largest coal producing countries are not confined to one region. The top five producers are China, the USA,
India, Australia, and South Africa. Much of global coal production is used in the country in which it is produced only
approximately 18% of hard coal production is destined for the international coal market.

Global coal production is expected grow from the approximate 4 billion tons currently mined annually to 7 billion tons
in 2030, with China accounting for approximately half the increase over this period.

The International Energy Outlook 2007 (IEO2007) published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects
an increase of world coal consumption by 74 percent over the period from 2004 to 2030. In 2004, coal accounted for
26 percent of total world energy consumption. Coals share of total world energy consumption is projected to increase
to 28 percent in 2030, and in the electric power sector its share is projected to rise from 43 percent in 2004 to 45
percent in 2030. Of the coal produced worldwide, 65 percent is shipped to electricity producers, 31 percent to
industrial consumers, and most of the remaining 4 percent to coal consumers in the residential and commercial
sectors.

The IEO2007 projects a 44% increase in international coal trade by 2030. The largest increase in consumption is
projected for coal that is consumed in China.

India:
Coal:
A significant energy crisis in India continues to loom as more than half of the nation's power plants are experiencing a
serious shortage of coal, Reuters reported. The Central Electricity Authority said of India's 103 thermal power plants,
60 may have less than a week's supply of coal left. Of that 60, more than half are at risk of running out in just a matter
of days.
Coal India is depended upon for more than 80 percent of India's total coal production, but has been consistently
failing to meet its production targets, leading to instability on the grid and higher electricity costs.

Corruption has also disrupted Indias already precariously positioned coal sector. The Associated Press reported in
September that a ruling from the nations top court would require that private companies return ownership of most of
the coal fields allocated to them by the government since 1993 under what it declared a corruption prone bidding
system. Of the 218 coal blocks granted to private companies between 1993 and 2010, only four were exempted from
the ruling. All four of the excluded mines are ones that supply thermal coal to power plants.
Current shortages have also put increasing pressure on Indias economy, as the nation relies heavily on coal-fired
power for industry. Shortages have forced many states to strictly ration power to industries and homes, said Reuters.
"The situation is very bad, with power cuts of up to 16 hours a day," said Vijay Agarwal, a director at Puja Ferro
Alloys in Goa state, according to Reuters. "The shortage has raised our costs while output is at 60 percent of what it
should be."
As coal production in India falls, imports of coal continue to rise with shipments reaching 168.4 million tons in the
fiscal year through March 31.