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3.1 Building the proposed prediction tool for wind speed using the ANN:
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Statistical Analysis.
Training
Testing.
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a) Statistical Analysis.
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Before starting with characteristics of the proposed wind speed prediction tool it was
important to analysis the available data (Input, Target data of the ANN tool), as the input,
target data is a measured data of wind speed with reading every 1 hour there it is a huge
amount of input data that need to be calcified as importance.
This can be done by statistical analysis to this input data in order to find the strength of
the relationship between the different input data specially to be related to the wind speed
(the parameter of interest for prediction).
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That method is only predict one day, next day of data using estimated, data is began
from D6 to D10.
We call the matrix x = [D6 D7 D8;
D7 D8 D9];
Matrix y=[D7 D8 D9;
D8 D9 D10];
Wind speed is collected every hour in one day so the time node t=[0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23]
My neural network has 4 inputs include: D6 D7 D8 D9; time node but its arranged
by matrix X=[D6 D7 D8;
D7 D8 D9;
t
t t];
we will train the system through the correlation input and output so that we have
desired function by using tool ANN in matlab.
After that, day D7 D8 D9 D10 is arranged matrix Y =[D7 D8 D9;
D8 D9 D10;
t t t];
applying the desire function for Y you calculated D11, its day we need estimating.
We do it again and add more day to build the matrix 2x5 2x7 3x3 3x5 3x7 5x3 5x5. More
data and more accuracy.
2. Estimate 3 days consecutive
This method is same idea method day-by-day but the output in network 1 is input in the
next network network 2, and output is network 2 is input in the next network- network
3; or we use desire function to estimate next 3 days consecutive.
c) Training.
In this step there is no direct low or formula to get the exact number of neurons or what is
the right training function to be used. A try and error method can be used in this case. The
different possibility can be carried out and the best will be chosen. The testing part can
show in details the best results of this part. For example the fastest training function is
generally trainlm, and it is the default training function for feed forward net. The quasiNewton method, trainbfg, is also quite fast. Both of these methods tend to be less
efficient for large networks (with thousands of weights), since they require more memory
and more computation time for these cases. Also, trainlm performs better on function
d) Testing.
The results obtained from testing the trained neural network on new data for 24 hours of a
day over two-week period are presented below in graphical form. The absolute mean
error AME (%) between the predicted and actual data for each day has been
calculated and presented in the table.
equation 4.19
Where:
- n is the total number of reading (in our case is the total number of measurement
available used as target data of the ANN tool for prediction).
- is the i value of the predicted parameter.
- is the i value of the measured parameter.
With this step done we can now have more accurate understanding of the output results
not only a general over view like before. The result of this analysis will help in
differentiating between the different results.
3.2 Programming in the neural network model
4.2 Programming the neural network model
TFi - Transfer function of ith layer. Default is 'logsig' for hidden layers, and 'purelin' for
output layer.
net1=train(net1,X1,o1)
we will train system so that input data (X1) after going through the neural network (net1) will become
output (o1).
Net1 is a variable name which can be changed according to the network train function and
configuration in order to yield a meaningful name.
When the training is complete, the network performance should be checked. Therefore,
unseen data (testing) will be exposed to the network. The testing simulation process is called
with the statement: D11est=sim(net1,Y1);