Winners and Losers of Oil Price Plunge - FT

16/12/2014
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December15,20148:20pm
Winnersandlosersofoilpriceplunge
ChrisGiles
Inflationandstrongdollarcouldcurbglobaleconomicimpact
uddenlytheworldisawashwithoil.Asurprisesurgeinproductionandweakerthanexpectedglobaldemandforcrudehavesentoil
reservessoaringandpricestumbling.The40percentdropintheoilpricetoaround$60abarrelsinceJuneisbyfarthebiggest
shockfortheglobaleconomythisyear.Similarepisodesinthepasttellustheconsequencesarelikelytobebothprofoundandlong
lasting.Normally,economistswouldaddpositivetothislist,butdoubtsaresurfacingasneverbefore.
Thescaleofthecurrentoilshockisdifficulttoexaggerate.Whilefinancialmarketsandcommentatorswereobsessedbyrising
geopoliticaltensionsandthelatesttwistsincentralbankspoliciesintheUS,EuropeandJapan,evenlargerforcesinoilmarketswent
largelyunnoticed.AslateasOctober,akeyconcernoftheInternationalMonetaryFundwastheriskofanoilpricespikecausedby
geopoliticaltensions.Instead,risingproductionandweakerdemandgrowthhaveleftsupplierscompetingtofindwillingcustomers.
Signupnow
Richcountrystocksofcrudeoilhavedefiedtheonsetofthenorthernhemispherewinterandrisentotheir
highestlevelintwoyears,accordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency.WestTexasIntermediatecrudeoil
pricesdroppedfrommorethan$100abarrelinJunetolessthan$60,withtheEuropeanBrentoilprices
followingthesamedownwardpath.Evenaslightuptickyesterdaycannotdisguisethedownwardtrajectory
oftheprice.
RatherthangeopoliticaltensionsinUkraineandIraqcausinganoilshortageandpricespike,asforeseenin
theIMFscenario,thecausalityisflowingfromeconomicstopolitics.Theplungeinoilpricesnowthreatens
FirstFTisournewessential
Russiaslivingstandardsandpublicfinancestothepointwhereitwillstart2015asadevaluedand
dailyemailbriefingofthebest
belligerentnationwithnuclearweapons.IntheMiddleEast,thefundstofinanceviciousconflictsinIraq
storiesfromacrosstheweb
andSyriafacegreaterpressures,whichpromisetostretchallsides.AndtheUSislesslikelytowanttoplay
globalpolicemannowthatitcansatisfyalmost90percentofitsenergyneedsfromdomesticsources,up
from70percentasrecentlyas2005.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3f5e4914849011e4ba4f00144feabdc0.html?segid=0100320#axzz3M3y585V5
1/8
16/12/2014
Innormaltimes,thebroadeffectsoftheoilpricedropontheglobaleconomyarewellknown.Itshouldactasaninternationalstimulus
thatwillneverthelessredistributeheavilyfromoilproducingcountriestoconsumersandthelongerthenewpricesendure,themore
profoundwillbetheeffectsonthestructureofindustriesacrosstheworld.
Butthistime,economistsareactivelydebatingwhethertheworldhaschangedandothermovingpartssuchasfallinginflationlevels
andthestrongdollarwillthrowsandintotheworksoftheusualeconomicrelationships.
Butwhenoilpricesfall,thereisnoironlawthatenhancesglobaleconomicgrowth.Themaineffectisahugeredistributionfromoil
producers,whoreceivelessfortheeffortofextractingtheblackgold,toconsumerswhobenefitfromcheapertransportationandenergy,
enablingthemtospendmoremoneyonothergoodsandservicesortosavetheirwindfall.
MosteconomistsstillagreewithChristineLagarde,IMFmanagingdirector,whothismonthsaidthatitisgoodnewsfortheglobal
economy.Thepositiveeffectongrowthshouldarisebecauseoilconsumerstendtospendmoreoftheirgainsthanoilproducerscuttheir
consumption.
Globalimpact
GabrielSterneofOxfordEconomicsexplains,producershavefinancialsurplusesanddonttendtocutback,whilelowerprices
redistributeincometothosewhohaveahigherpropensitytoconsumeandtoinvest.Thescaleoftheglobaleffectissignificant.Oxford
Economicsestimatesthatevery$20fallintheoilpriceincreasesglobalgrowthby0.4percentwithintwotothreeyears.TheIMFscore
simulationssuggestasimilarsizeoftheeffect,sothe$40reductioninpricewouldmorethanoffsetthetotal0.5percentagepoint
downgradestotheIMFsworldeconomicgrowthforecastsfor2014to2016overthepastyear.Thatboostisthenamplifiedifitgenerates
asubsequentliftinconfidence,encouragingcompaniestoinvestandspend.
Iftheusualeffectontheworldeconomyislarge,itisalwaysdwarfedbytheswingsthatwillbenefitsomecountriesandhitothers.Thebig
winnerswillbecountriesthataresimultaneouslyheavyusersofenergyandlargelydependentonoilimports.Moodys,thecreditrating
agency,calculatesthatcountriesbattlinghighinflationandlargeoilsubsidybills,suchasIndonesiaandIndia,willbenefitmostfroma
lowerpriceenvironment.
Lookingat45differenteconomies,OxfordEconomicsagreesthatemergingeconomyoilimportersarelikelytobethemainwinners.Most
advancedeconomiesalsogainsignificantly,althoughastheyhavelessdependenceonoilforeverydollarofgrossdomesticproductso
theirproportionategainsaresmaller.Afurtherboonformanyemergingeconomiesisthatthefallinfuelpricesenablescountriestocut
fuelsubsidies,removingsignificantpressurefromthepublicfinances.LordSternoftheLondonSchoolofEconomicssaysthisisexactly
therightmomenttoremovefossilfuelsubsidiesandintensifycarbonpricing.
Foroilexporters,however,theoutlookisdarker.Thosewhichhavetendedtospendratherthansaveoilrevenueshavetheleastcapacity
toadjusttothenewreality.MoodysestimatesthatRussiaandVenezuelawillbehardesthit,sincetheyhavelargerecurringexpenditure
thatmaybepoliticallychallengingtocut.Thelargestoilproducer,SaudiArabia,hasmuchgreaterfiscalbufferssinceitsavedmorethan
itspent.Currencymarketshavealreadyreactedbrutallytothosecountriesitconsidersvulnerable,pushingdowntherouble40percent
againstthedollaroverthepastsixmonths,forexample.
Sofar,sonormal.Butthistimetherearemorevoicesthanusualsuggestingexpectationsofaglobalboostaredeceptive.StephenKing,
chiefeconomistofHSBC,believeslacklustredemandinChina,JapanandEuropeoverthesummerwastheprimarycauseofthecollapse
inpricessothetraditionalloweroilpricesgood:higheroilpricesbadstoryisnolongersoobviouslytrue.
Hearguesthatoptimismfollowinganoilpricefallineconomicestimationsisbasedonpositivesupplysidedevelopmentsforthewestern
developedworld,butthereareplentyofsituationswherefallingoilpricesaremerelysymptomsofawidermalaise.
Deflationfears
MrKingarguesthatmuchofthepastgainsfromoilpriceshavecomefromlowerinterestratesassociatedwithfallinginflation,which
cannothappenwhenmonetarypolicyisalreadystimulatingeconomiesashardasitcan.IfhouseholdsinChina,EuropeandJapanfeel
therearereasonstosaveanywindfallstheyreceive,theglobaldemandboostwillbeseverelyrestricted.
Andonereasonconsumersmightbelesswillingtoopentheirpursesandwalletsthistimeisthataspectreoflowinflationstalksmany
advancedeconomies.Whilestableorfallingpricesmakepeoplebetteroff,theyalsopotentiallythreatenaprolongedperiodofstasisif
householdsprefertowaitandseebeforespendingtheirmoney.
Interactive:Howdooil
producersbalancetheir
books?
Thatattitude,encouragedbythepossibilityoflowerpricestomorrowcouldencouragecompaniestodelay
investmentandhouseholdstoputoffconsumption,generatingaselffulfillingprophesyofsoggygrowth
andgentlyfallingprices.
2/8
16/12/2014
AnjliRavalandJohnBurn
Murdochassessthefiscal
breakevenprice,animportant
metricforassessingastates
vulnerabilitytoswingsintheoil
market
Thethreatisnottobedismissedlightly.OxfordEconomiesestimatesthatwithanoilpriceof$60abarrel,
13Europeancountrieswillseetheirinflationratesfallbelowzero,atleasttemporarily,in2015.
Awareofthedangerthatoilcouldcreatepersistentdisappointmentratherthanashotinthearm,Peter
Praet,chiefeconomistoftheEuropeanCentralBank,saidmonetarypolicyinEuropedidnothavethe
normalluxuryofsimplyassumingloweroilpriceswouldboostincomesandspendingthistime.Inthese
conditionsmonetarypolicyneedstoreact,hesaid.
Otherreasonswhytheusualboosttodemandmightbemoremutedincludethesharplyrisingdollar,whichensuresthatdomesticoil
pricesoutsidetheUShavenotfallenbyanythinglikethe40percentheadlinefigure.
Somecluesregardingthevalidityofthenewfearsareprovidedbyhistory.In1986,theoilpricemorethanhalvedafterOpecfailedto
controlsupply,triggeringaglobaleconomicsurgethatacceleratedglobalgrowthtoapeakof4.6percentin1988,aratethatwouldnot
beachievedagainuntil2000.
In2008,acuteweaknessofglobaldemandledtoanoilpricedeclinefrom$133to$40abarrel,butevenwithfearsofdeflation,cheaper
oilhelpedgenerateareboundingrowthin2010.
History,then,iskindtothetraditionalviewofthepotencyofcheapoilinstimulatingglobaleconomyingoodtimesandbad.But
economistsalsoknowthathistoryhasnotbeenagoodguidetomanyeconomictrendsoverthepastsixyears.
Thoughaglobalboostismorelikelynowthanitwas,thereisnoguaranteecheapoilwillcastthemagicspellthistimethatitalwayshasin
thepast.
***
FromChinatoVenezuelaandcountriesinbetweenwholosesandwhogains
Mexico
Mexicoisopeningupitsoilandgassectortoprivateinvestmentafternearly80yearsofstate
control.Butitstandstoseeinvestmentsqueezedasaconsequenceoftheoilpriceplunge.
Companiesvyingforthechancetodrill$100mwellssaythattheymayscalebacktheir
interest.ThesilverliningforMexicoisthatitimportsabouthalfitspetrolsolowerpricesare
abonus.Crudeaccountsforlessthan15percentofMexicosexportsandithasahedging
programmewhichitsayswillshielditfromtheimpactofpricefallsin2015.A$20abarrel
fallinthepriceofMexicosoilnextyearwouldadduptolessthan1percentofGDP,not
insignificantbutstillmanageablefromafiscalperspective,accordingtoMoodys,therating
agency.
Furtherreading:Mexicosetsrulesforhistoricoiltender
US
FallingoilpricesmayslowdowntheshalerevolutionbutarestillgoodnewsfortheUS
economy,asthecashsavedonfillingupacarswellsthewalletsofhundredsofmillionsof
consumers.ThefallinoilpricessofarwillprovidetheUSpublicabout$75bnayeartospend
onothergoodsabout0.7percentoftotalUSconsumption.Analystspredictafallinoil
investmentbutGoldmanSachspegsitatnomorethan0.1percentofGDP.Loweroilprices
havemadeeconomistsmoreconfidentabouttheoutlookfor2015withHSBCraisingnext
yearsgrowthforecastfrom2.6percentto2.8percent.Cheaperoilwillweighonalreadylow
inflationbuttheFederalReserveistreatingthateffectasaoneoff.
Eurozone
3/8
16/12/2014
TheEUimports88percentofitsoilbutitscelebrationsoverplungingpriceshavebeen
muted.Atfirstglance,lowerenergypricescomeasawelcomerelieftoEuropeanindustry
whenitisstrugglingtoretaincompetitivenessinrelationtotheUS.Intermsofconsumer
prices,MarioDraghi,presidentoftheEuropeanCentralBank,calledcheaperoil
unambiguouslypositive.JensWeidmann,amemberofthebanksgoverningcouncil,
describedthelowcrudepriceasbeinglikeaministimuluspackage.ButMrDraghiisalso
quicktoidentifytheriskswhentheEUalreadyfearsthatinflationisalarminglylowand
couldbeveeringtowardsdeflation.Manycountrieshavelookedtoinflationtoalleviatethe
debtburdenthatisrestrainingtheirspendingpower.
MrDraghiwarnedthatlowoilpricescouldbecomeembeddedinlowwages.Oilsfreefall
hasalsobatteredEuropeanstocks,particularlyLondonsenergyheavyFTSE.Analystsexpect
thatmajorprojectsinEurope,suchasinBritainsNorthSea,willbeputonhold.Europes
leadingeconomy,Germany,isshiftingtowardsrenewablepowerbutpetroleumstillmakes
upaboutathirdofitsenergyconsumption.However,businessconfidencehasbeenboosted
bycheapoilandthedeclineoftheeuro.GermanGDPisexpectedtogrowby1.5percentin
2015,accordingtotheMunichbasedIfoInstitute,ofwhichaquarterofapercentagepointis
attributabletothedropinoilprices,theinstitutesaidinaforecastlastweek.Ifosaidtheoil
pricefallwouldboostoveralleconomicactivitynotleastthroughanincreaseindomestic
purchasingpower.
Norway
Norwayappearstobeinoneofthebestpositionsofanyproducer.Oslonotonlyhasthe
worldslargestsovereignwealthfunddoublethesizeofitseconomyat$870bnbutitcan
alsotoleratealowerprice.AccordingtoFitch,evenatapriceof$40abarrelOslowould
balanceitsbudget,thelowestthresholdforalltheoilproducerscoveredbytheratingagency.
ButNorwegianauthoritiesarestillworriedgiventheNordiccountrysdependenceonoil.The
centralbankcutinterestratesunexpectedlytoarecordlowlastmonthdespiteafrothy
housingmarket.OysteinOlsen,thegovernor,worriesthatanoilpricebelow$70couldcause
oilcompaniestocutbackoninvestmentanddelayprojects.ExplorationoftheArctic
toutedasNorwaysnextbigoilfrontieraftertheNorthSeaisseenasparticularlyatriskfor
westernEuropesbiggestproducer.
Russia
FortheRussianeconomy,thedropintheoilpriceandtheUkrainecrisishavewhippedupa
perfectstorm.Asoilandgasaccountfor75percentofthecountrysexportsandmorethan
halfofitsbudgetrevenues,itscurrencymovesinlockstepwiththeoilmarkets.Therouble,
whichhadalreadybeendevaluingunderthepressureofgeopoliticalrisks,hasplummeted
sincethefallinoilgatheredpace.Asaresult,the$600bnburdenthatRussianbanksand
companiesoweforeigncreditorsisgettingheavierbythedayaworrythatisevenmore
seriousbecausewesternsanctionsbarmostoftheseborrowersfromrefinancingthisdebt
withUSorEuropeanbanks.WithRussiareliantonimportsforalmosteverythingexcept
commodities,inflationhassoaredto9.4percentandisexpectedtohit10percentbythe
yearend.
Furtherreading:CanVladimirPutinspopularityweatheraperfecteconomicstorm?
Turkey
MehmetSimsek,Turkeysfinanceminister,arguesthathiscountryshouldnolongerbeseen
asoneofthefragilefiveemergingeconomiesbecausetheoilpricedrophelpsnarrow
Ankarascurrentaccountdeficit,anotoriouseconomicweakspot.Turkeyreliesheavilyon
foreignfuellastyearsenergyimportbillwas$56bnbutofficialssaythedeficitnarrows
bymorethan$400mforeach$10fallinoil.Theimpactonconsumersislessfavourable,
sinceTurkeyhassomeofthehighestpetroltaxesintheworld.TheIMFhaswarnedthatthe
economyremainssensitivetochangesinexternalfinancingconditionsandthata
fundamentalfixwouldrequirehighersavingsandambitiousstructuralreforms.Ankara
reporteddisappointinggrowthfigureslastweekwhiletheliraplungedtoanalltimelow
4/8
16/12/2014
againstthedollaryesterdayamidconcernsabouttheruleoflawandstrongUSeconomic
data.ThelastfactorisareminderthatariseinUSinterestrates,andtheaccompanying
diversionoffundsfromemergingmarkets,couldoutweighanybenefitforTurkeyfromoils
slide.
Iran
Tehranwasalreadystrugglingwiththeimpactofwesternsanctionsimposedoveritsnuclear
programmebeforeoilbegantofall.ThegovernmentofHassanRouhaniisseekingto
rebalancetheeconomytoreduceitsdependenceonoilinnextyears$93.6bnbudgetfrom
around50percenttoclosertoonethirdwhichwouldbethelowestindecades.Withno
prospectofoilpricesgoingupinthenearfuturethereisaddedpressuretostrikeanuclear
dealbeforetheJunedeadline.USbankingsanctionshavecostIranhalfitsoilrevenues.But
anagreementcouldpotentiallyallowIran,whichholdstheworldsfourthlargestreserves,to
sellmorecrudeandhaveaccesstoabout$100bnofforeignexchangereserveswhichithas
beenbarredfromaccessing.Failurecouldleadtoashrinkingoftheeconomyandsocial
unrest.
FurtherReading:WeakIraneconomyaddstopressureonleadersovernucleardeal
SaudiArabia
FiscalbuffersareinplacetooffsettheimpactofanypotentialdomesticdeficitbutSaudi
ArabiatheworldslargestexporterwillstillbeamongtheGulfnationsmostaffectedby
loweroilprices.At$60abarrelthekingdom,whoseoilreceiptsaccountedfor85percentof
exportsand90percentoffiscalrevenuein2013,wouldexperienceafiscaldeficitequivalent
to14percentofGDPin2015,accordingtoMoodys.Itsvastforeignexchangereserves,
estimatedatcloseto$740bn,willoffsetsomeofthenegativeeffectsofmuchloweroilprices,
butsuchastressedscenarioisstilllikelytomeanapullbackinspendingonsocial
programmeswhichhadincreasedsubstantiallyfollowingunrestrelatedtotheArabuprising.
Evenso,RiyadhhasuseditsleadingpositioninOpectoresistcallsforaproductioncut.
Furtherreading:ForSaudiArabia,plungingoilpricesareapoliticalweapon
Japan
Japanisaclearwinnerfromfallingcrude.InthelastfiscalyeartoMarch2014,theenergy
poornationspentY28.4tn($236bn)onmineralfuels,ofwhichmorethan90percentwas
linkedtooil.Every10percentdropinthepriceofabarrelrepresentsadividendofabout
Y2.6tn.Anda30percentdrophandsbackaboutasmuchcashaswasraisedbythe
governmentthisyear,whenitputupconsumptiontaxby3percentagepoints.Ineffect,a
narrowinginthecountrysbudgetdeficithasbeentotallypaidfor,fromabroad,saysHideo
Hayakawa,aformerchiefeconomistattheBankofJapan.Butloweroilisamixedblessing
fortheBoJ,asitcouldmakeitmoredifficulttoachieveits2percenttargetforinflation.
China
Chinabenefitslessthanmightbeexpectedfromfallingoilpricesdespitebeingtheworlds
largestoilimporter.Thatispartlybecausetheheavyrelianceoncoalmeansmostofthe
economyisexposedtooilpricesthroughthetransportsector.Dieselandpetrolprices,setby
thestate,stopcloselytrackingoilpricesataround$80abarrel.Thatsgoodnewsforstate
ownedoilrefinersCNPCandSinopec,butlesssoforbusinessesanddrivers.Chinaspolicy
banksarealsoheavilyexposedtomajoroilexportersincludingVenezuela,leavingBeijing
vulnerablewhenfallingpriceshitthosecountriesabilitytorepayloans.
FurtherReading:OilpriceslideamixedblessingforChina
India
Heavilydependentonimportedoilandbesetforyearsbyfiscaldeficitsandhighinflation,
5/8
16/12/2014
Indiaisanunambiguousbeneficiaryofloweroilprices.ByOctober,thecostofoilimports
hadalreadyfallento$164bnovertheprevious12monthperiod,fromapeakof$169bnin
July,andthatbillwillshrinkfurther.NarendraModisgovernmenthasusedtheopportunity
toabandondieselsubsidiesformotoristsandraisetaxesonbothpetrolanddiesel.Theoil
pricefallcutsthetrade,currentaccountandfiscaldeficits,whiletheoilassisteddropin
inflationdownto4.4percentinNovembershouldleadtolowerinterestratesanda
boostforinvestment.NordoesIndiasuffersobadlyfromsomeofthenegativefactorsthat
willhitfellowBricssuchasRussia:commodities,mostlyoil,accountformorethanhalfof
Indiasimportsandonly9percentofitsexports,mostlyfood.
Nigeria
NigeriasemergenceasAfricaslargesteconomyisthanksmostlytorapidgrowthinservices.
Butthecountrystilldependsonoilformorethan60percentofstaterevenuesand90per
centofexportearnings.SothereisastormbrewinginAfricasleadingproducer.
CompoundingtheturmoilistheescalatingIslamistinsurgencyinpartsofthenorth.Oil
productionisalsodownaveragingwellbelowits2.4mb/dcapacity,thankstoindustrial
scaletheftandalackofinvestmentfollowingfiveyearsoflegislativeparalysisoverreformsto
theindustry.Foreignportfolioinvestorshavetakenfright,thegovernmenthasslashed
spendingfor2015,thestockmarketisdown23percentontheyeartodateandthenairahas
continuedtocomeunderpressuresincean8percentdevaluationlastmonth.
Venezuela
Venezuelaisestimatedbyeconomiststolose$700mforeverydollardropintheoilprice.
Evenbeforethelatestplunge,therewasspeculationthatthecountrywhereoilaccountsfor
96percentofexportrevenuesmightdefault.Thosefearshaveintensifiedinrecentweeks.
Theeconomyisforecasttoshrinkby3percentthisyear,whilethepopulationisalready
strugglingwithshortagesofbasicgoodsandinflationrunningatmorethan63percent.
PresidentNicolsMadurohassaidthefairpriceofoilis$100abarrel,butanalystsat
Ecoanaltica,aCaracasbasedconsultancy,estimatethatthecountryneedsaBrentpriceof
above$130tobalanceitsbudget.Tocoversomeofthelosses,industryexpertssayVenezuela
needstorampupitsproductionofbetween2.4mbarrelsadayand2.8mb/d.Buteveninthe
bestofcircumstancesthatwouldtakeyearstocomeonstream.
Furtherreading:Venezuelansfearsgrowamidfallingoilprices
Reportingteam:AndresSchipaniinCaracas,KathrinHilleinMoscow,DanielDombeyin
Istanbul,JudeWebberinMexicoCity,NajmehBozorgmehrinTehran,RobinHardingin
Washington,BenMcLannahaninTokyo,LucyHornbyinBeijing,RichardMilnein
Stockholm,VictorMalletinNewDelhi,JeevanVasagarinBerlin,ChristianOliverin
Brussels,WilliamWallisandAnjliRavalinLondon.
Oil, United States of America, Central Banks
6/8
16/12/2014
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