Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Trillion US$
Q1FY Q2FY Q3FY Q4FY Q1FY Q2FY Q3FY Q4FY Q1FY Q2FY Q3FY
12
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
GDP 15.96 16.09 16.27 16.33 16.50 16.62 16.87 17.08 17.04 17.33 17.56
PCE 10.96 11.03 11.12 11.22 11.35 11.41 11.52 11.65 11.73 11.87 11.97
GDI 2.45 2.49 2.50 2.48 2.54 2.59 2.71 2.75 2.71 2.84 2.89
NE
-0.61 -0.59 -0.54 -0.53 -0.53 -0.53 -0.51 -0.46 -0.54 -0.55 -0.52
GEI
3.17 3.16 3.19 3.16 3.14 3.14 3.15 3.14 3.14 3.16 3.21
Note: GDP: Gross Domestic Product, PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditure, GDI: Gross Private Domestic
Investment, NE: Net Exports of Goods and Services, GEI: Government Expenditure and gross investment
After the Financial Crisis in 2008, USA has shown strong growth and stability in the past two
financial cycles. In order to prop up the economy of US, the US Federal Reserve had adopted a
quantitative easing program, which increased the money supply in the economy resulting in
higher inflation and improved GDP. In absolute terms, the economy US grew from $16 trillion to
$17.5 trillion. This growth can be attributed to growth in the consumption and domestic
investments. US has been in a trade deficit for the past 11 quarters.
3.3
2.8
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1.9
1.7
1.9
2.1
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
Inflation (Based on
CPI) in %
With the tapering of the quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve in the fiscal year 2013
caused the inflation in the US economy to fall drastically. The target inflation for the current
financial year is 1.7% which was achieved after the Quarter 3 results. The increased wholesale
price index is also an indicator of the monetary policies of the US Fed Reserve.
110
109
109
103
100
100
89
94
94
80
85
79
75
71
60
WPI
40
20
0
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
The real interest rates in US were rising until the financial crisis which began in 2007. US
Federal Reserve started reducing the rates around this time to stabilize the US economy, finance
new spending and help support the prices of many other assets, such as stocks and houses.
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The current account deficit of US has improved from 2006 to 2009 due to both cyclical and
structural factors. It can be explained due to weak domestic demand and lower energy imports
due to development of shale gas.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-200.00
-300.00
-400.00
-500.00
-600.00
-700.00
-800.00
-900.00
Industrial production has been fluctuating +/- 1% in the period Aug 2011-14 (YoY).The
absolute values of IP both Manufacturing and Total industries ar showing an upward but
stabilizing trend which is commonly observed in developed Economies like US.
NASDAQ
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
NASDAQ Price
variation
4.5E+09
4E+09
3.5E+09
3E+09
2.5E+09
2E+09
1.5E+09
1E+09
500000000
0
NASDAQ Volume
variation
Both the leading stock markets NYSE and NASDAQ have shown a rising trend, while Nyse has
shown a 505 rise over the given period NASDAQ has almost doubled in terms of its price
variation.
References
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/statisticsdata.htm
https://www.nyse.com/data
http://www.nasdaq.com/
It is defined as a percentage of the labour force (the employed plus the unemployed workforce).
Unemployment is an excellent indicator of the state of the economic cycle. High unemployment
(compared with the average over the past few years) suggests a recessionary gap. Low unemployment at
the top of the cycle is broadly indicative of inflationary pressures.
Unemployment
Rate
Unemployment Rate
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Aug/11
Feb/12
Sep/12
Mar/13
Oct/13
Apr/14
Month
Economists argue that there is a natural rate of unemployment (NRU) or non-accelerating rate inflation
rate of unemployment (NAIRU), at which the demand and supply of labour are in balance. The basic
premise is that the increase in demand can be translated into the employment only up to the NAIRU, at
which point the employment stops growing and the increase in demand spills over into higher inflation.
14000
2500
12000
10000
2000
8000
1500
6000
1000
4000
500
M 2 in $ Billion
3000
2000
Month
Aug/14
May/14
Feb/14
Nov/13
Aug/13
May/13
Feb/13
Nov/12
Aug/12
May/12
Feb/12
0
Nov/11
0
Aug/11
M 1 in $ Billion
Money Supply
M1
M2
US Dollar Index(DXZ)
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
US Dollar Index(DXZ)
The attractiveness of U.S. financial markets relative to the euro area and Japan has increased investor
interest in the U.S. as a place to invest and boosted the value of the U.S. dollar. The rise in dollar in last 2
months is due to its rise against Yen due to Asian nations still-sluggish economy and easy monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the euro EURUSD, -0.01% has depreciated against the dollar as the European Central Bank
unveiled easing measures in June and hinted at more on the horizon to combat low inflation.
Net inflows occurred for all three components of direct investment flowsequity investment, debt
instruments investment, and valuation adjustments
3,000.00
2,500.00
Inward
position
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
As we can see from the above diagram, manufacturing forms the bulk of the Inbound FDI followed by
other industries.
Country wise FDI
Outbound FDI
Inbound FDI
Five host countriesthe Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Canada, and Bermuda
accounted for more than half of the total position at the end of 2013. For the fifth consecutive year, the
position in the Netherlands was the largestat $722.8 billion, or 15.5 percent of the total position.
The top five investing countries accounted for more than half of the overall foreign direct investment
position in the United States. The United Kingdom was the largest investing country with a position of
$518.6 billion, or 18.8 percent of the total . Japan was the second largest with a position of $342.3 billion,
or 12.4 percent of the total. The Netherlands was the third largest with a position of $273.9 billion, or 9.9
percent of the total. Canada was the fourth largest with a position of $237.9 billion, or 8.6 percent of the
total. France was the fifth largest with a position of $226.1 billion, or 8.2 percent of the total.
References:
1. www.tradingeconomics.com
2. US Bureau of Economic Analysis