Macro-economic Update

DEC 18, 2014

CCIL Economic Research

CCIL Economic Research

Macro-Economic Updates
Dec 18, 2014

Foreign Trade: Merchandise Trade Deficit Surged 76.17% in Nov14

o The merchandise trade deficit significantly widened by 76.17% to $16.86 billion
in Nov14 from $9.57 billion recorded in Nov13. On an M-o-M basis however,
the trade deficit increased by 26.23% from $13.35 billion recorded in Oct14.

o The Rupee ranged between Rs.61.39 - Rs.62.10 per USD before closing at
Rs.61.97 per USD in the month of Nov14 vis--vis Rs. 61.41 per USD in
Oct14.
o Exports posted a healthy improvement in Nov14: After showing a dip last
month, the countrys merchandise exports expanded to $25.96 billion in Nov14
against $24.20 billion recorded in Nov13. Export of commodities such as
petroleum products, engineering goods, gems & jewellery and drugs &
pharmaceuticals, together accounted for 60.50% of the total exports. Cumulative
merchandise exports for the period of Apr-Nov14 however, grew to $215.75
billion vis--vis $205.27 billion in Apr-Nov13, posting an uptick of 5.10%.
o The merchandise import bill posted a significant uptick of 26.79% (Y-o-Y)
in Nov14: The countrys merchandise imports grew, for the sixth consecutive
month, to $42.82 billion in Nov14 from $ 33.77 billion recorded a year ago. On
an M-o-M basis, imports expanded by 8.54%. The cumulative merchandise
imports for the period of Apr-Nov14 also increased marginally by to $316.37
billion against $302.32 billion reported during Apr-Nov13.

Macro-economic Update

DEC 18, 2014

CCIL Economic Research

Table 1: Trends in Indias Merchandise Foreign Trade (USD Million)

Items

2012-13

2013-14

Apr-Nov'13

Apr-Nov'14

312355
450949
167625
283324

Growth
(%)
3.99
-7.96
2.19
-13.06

205278
303072
108521
194551

215755
316373
106558
209815

Growth
(%)
5.10
4.39
-1.81
7.85

Export
300373
Import
489929
a) Oil Import
164039
b) Non-Oil
325891
Import
Trade Deficit
-189557
Source: Ministry of Commerce

-138594

-26.89

-97794

-100618

2.89

o The oil imports posted a decline of 9.73% (Y-o-Y) to $11.71 billion in Nov14
from $12.97 billion in Nov13. Oil imports constituted about 27.36% of the total
imports during the month. On M-o-M basis as well, the oil imports contracted by
5.25% from $12.36 billion in Oct14.

o The non-oil import bill surged by 49.60% in Nov14 to $31.16 billion vis--vis
non-oil imports of $20.79 billion recorded in the previous fiscal. Imports such as
gold, electronic goods, machinery and organic & inorganic chemicals, which
together account for 30% of the total imports, all posted significant y-o-y growth
rates in Nov14. Gold, which exclusively accounts for about 13% of the
countrys imports, grew by 571.28 % in Nov14.
Table 2: Major Commodities in Indias Merchandise Foreign Trade in Nov14
Sr.
No.

Exports

Values in
USD
Million

Engineering Goods
2 Petroleum Products
3 Gems & Jewellery
4 Drugs &
Pharmaceuticals

6626
4164
3697
1220

RMG of all Textiles

Organic & Inorganic
Chemicals
7 Cotton
Yarn/Fabrics/made-ups,
Handloom Products etc.

1202

Y-o-Y
Growth
(%)

Imports

Petroleum, Crude &

30.64 products
-14.15 Gold
44.28 Electronic goods
Machinery, electrical &
9.32 non-electrical
Pearls, precious & Semi17.19 precious stones

Values in
USD
Million

Y-o-Y
Growth
(%)

11716
5611
3080

-19.15
280.39
7.93

2540

1.43

2110

-27.11

2059

-42.37

1854

-8.08

1607
1397

5.40
33.95

1070

28.29

1104

939

8
9

Rice
Electronic Goods

655
521

Marine Products

520

10

15.84 Transport equipment

Coal, Coke & Briquettes,
10.25 etc.
Organic & Inorganic
30.70 Chemicals
-33.67 Iron & Steel
Artificial resins, plastic
-3.36 materials, etc.

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Indias Foreign Trade in Services:

o The countrys services exports for the month of Oct14 fell by 3.32% to $12.14
billion in Oct14 vis--vis $12.56 billion recorded a year ago. On an M-o-M
basis, Indias services exports also fell by 6.14%.

Macro-economic Update

DEC 18, 2014

CCIL Economic Research

o Indias services imports declined by 14.68% to $5.94 billion in Oct14 from

$6.96 billion recorded in Oct13.
o Net export of services for the month of Oct14 stood at $6.20 billion as against
$5.59 billion recorded in Oct13.
Table 3: Trends in Indias Foreign Trade in Services ($ Million)
Items
Receipts
Payments
Net Export of
Services

2012-13

2013-14

143482
80541
62941

154680
82236
72444

Growth
(%)
7.80
2.10
15.10

Apr-Oct'13

Apr-Oct'14

88093
47250
40843

91196
48984
42212

Growth
(%)
3.52
3.67
3.35

Source: Ministry of Commerce, RBI

Outlook:
Due to sluggish growth in the European countries and Japan, the merchandise exports
could remain stagnant in coming months. The effect of low crude prices may mitigate
upward pressures of higher gold imports because of due wedding season on the
overall imports and consequently may pressurize trade deficit to a concern level.

Economic Research Department

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res_sur@ccilindia.co.in
gcnath@ccilindia.co.in
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