Beruflich Dokumente
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Jain Irrigation
BSE SENSEX
27,910
Bloomberg
S&P CNX
8,363
JI IN
443.1
39.9/0.6
CMP: INR88
133/56
11/-16/-37
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
1,424
3,487
5,252
EPS (INR)
3.1
7.5
11.4
Gr. (%)
113.5
144.9
50.6
BV/Sh(INR)
49.0
55.6
65.8
RoE (%)
6.4
14.4
18.7
RoCE (%)
10.1
13.8
16.7
P/E (x)
28.4
11.6
7.7
1.8
1.6
1.3
P/BV (x)
TP: INR120
Buy
Results below expectations: Jain (JI) reported overall revenue of INR12.7b (est.
INR13.3b), as against INR12.1b in 2QFY14, marking a YoY growth of 4.4%. EBITDA
stood at INR1.6b (est. INR1.7b) in 2QFY15, with EBITDA margin at 12.4% YoY (est.
12.8%). Interest costs were flat YoY and stood at INR1.1b in 2QFY15, as against
INR1.1b in 2QFY14. Forex loss for the quarter stood at INR254m due to MTM
impact of INR depreciation on forex loans. PAT for the quarter stood at INR(235m) (est. INR8m), against INR(-807m) in 2QFY14, impacted by forex loss.
Domestic MIS reports strong growth, exports and PE pipes drag growth lower:
Segmental performance during 2Q was mixed, with major positives being 1)
overall Micro Irrigation (MIS) grew by 29.6%, domestic MIS grew by 67.6%, within
which retail business grew by 37% and project business grew by 184%, 2) working
capital trajectory for domestic MIS continued to progress well with sequential
decline in receivable days by 32 days (from 242 to 211 days), 3) PVC pipe business
bounced back in terms of growth, up 21.5% YoY. In terms of negatives, 1) MIS
export performance was worse-than-expected, with a decline of 64% YoY, 2) PE
pipe business declined by 55.5%, 3) fruit processing revenue declined by 12.2%
and 4) MIS working capital up 20 days (QoQ) due to a decline in payable days.
Going forward, MIS margins will be positively impacted by decline in crude related
polymer prices and recent price hikes (~5%) allowed in Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Food processing stake sale on cards: JIs board has approved subsidiarizing the
food processing unit into a 100% subsidiary, which is a step in the right direction,
as this can now be followed by a stake sale and an eventual demerger.
Management highlighted the process of subsidiarizing can take up to four months
from now; and is actively evaluating fund raising in this entity through a 25% stake
sale. Stake sale will ensure accelerated debt reduction for the parent entity and
entry of an external investor will strengthen the overall focus on the business.
Maintain Buy: We expect strong free cash generation over FY14-17E led by
domestic MIS business, which should aid to reduce the debt-equity from 1.8x in
FY14 to 1x in FY17E. We cut the earnings estimates for FY15E and FY16E by 28%
and 15% respectively to reflect the sharp de-growth in PE pipes and MIS exports.
We maintain Buy, with a revised target price of INR120 (16x FY16E EPS of INR7.5).
Jain Irrigation
4.4
12,702
15,534
2QFY15
3QFY14
18,333
4QFY14
12,171
1QFY14
14,094
2QFY14
11.5
13,746
Growth (YoY) %
1QFY15
22.3
26.6
Margins (%)
Growth (%)
14.8
753
-807
-280.5
NM
-235
2QFY15
203
3QFY14
2QFY14
-603
1QFY14
2,006
1,572
259
NM
1QFY15
12.4
2QFY15
2,562
1QFY15
1,710
12.9
4QFY14
1,523
3QFY14
1QFY14
2,086
12.4
2QFY14
12.5
39.4
23.8
4QFY14
14.0
-155.2
11 November 2014
JIs board has approved subsidiarizing the food processing unit into a 100%
subsidiary, which is a step in the right direction as this can now be followed
up by stake sale and an eventual demerger.
Management highlighted the process of subsidiarizing can take up to four
months from now; and is actively evaluating fund raising in this entity
through a 25% stake sale. Stake sale will ensure accelerated debt reduction
for the parent entity and entry of an external investor will strengthen the
overall focus on the business.
2
Jain Irrigation
Domestic MIS business posts strong 68% growth led by projects business
n
n
n
Domestic MIS business grew by 68% led by strong growth in the project business
which grew by 184% YoY from INR466m to INR1,322m and healthy growth in
retail business which grew by 37% this quarter from INR1,589m to INR2,177m.
Growth in retail MIS business seen in all geographies (Maharashtra by 31%,
North East by 43% and Gujarat by 25%).
Exports declined sharply by 64% YoY from INR878m to INR318m as one large
order amounting to INR1.25b from Africa executed during the previous year
which no longer recurs in FY15.
Going forward, management is confident of posting 15-20% growth in MIS
business in FY15 with retail contributing INR13b, projects contributing INR4b
and exports contributing the balance INR2.5b to INR3.0b.
NBFC-Sustainable Agro Finance (SAFL) has disbursed loan of INR0.4b in 1HFY15.
Loan Book of SAFL stood at INR1.3b as on 1HFY15.
2QFY14
2QFY15
YoY
Segment
2QFY14
2QFY15
YoY
1,589
2,177
37%
Retail
54%
57%
3%
Project
466
1,322
184%
Project
16%
35%
19%
Export
878
318
-64%
Export
30%
8%
-22%
2,933
3,817
30%
Total
100%
100%
0%
Retail
Total
n
n
FY12
FY13
FY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Dealer
2.5
1.7
2.2
2.1
1.7
Institutional
1.8
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.2
Project
3.1
2.4
3.4
4.0
4.4
Govt. Subsidy
9.7
7.1
3.9
3.4
2.6
Export
0.6
0.4
1.0
0.8
0.6
Total
17.7
12.7
11.9
11.5
10.5
11 November 2014
Jain Irrigation
Receivable days in MIS business reduced from 279 days in 2QFY14 (243 days in
1QFY15) to 211 days in 2QFY15.
Inventory days in MIS business reduced from 113 days to 102 days YoY.
Net working capital reduced from 317 days to 255 days in MIS business.
Management is confident about the new MIS business model and lower project
receivables and expects receivables to decline to < 180 days by FY15 end.
Cash based model is now operational in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya
Pradesh. By end of FY15, most of the retail business will be cash based.
Target for MIS gross receivables is 180 days in FY15, 120 days in FY16.
317
306
255
255
10.2
4,074
6,225
4,248
3,801
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
235
2,933
3QFY14
1QFY14
3,855
Growth (YoY %)
29.6
17.2
2QFY14
16.5
24.8
Inventory days
113
103
102
1QFY15
2QFY15
2QFY15
113
1QFY15
265
257
243
211
98
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
11 November 2014
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Jain Irrigation
PVC piping business grew by 21.5% YoY from INR1.1b in 2QFY14 to INR1.3b in
2QFY15. PE piping segment revenues declined by 55.5% YoY.
PE sheets business recorded also reported weak performance with -30% growth.
Inventory days in piping business reduced from 60 days to 37 days.
Receivable days in piping business reduced from 58 days to 49 days.
Net working capital remained negative at -11 days in piping business.
1.6
3,247
1,089
3.0
-8.3
2,440
Growth (YoY %)
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
21.5
-20.6
-7
2,578
1,323
-8
-11
-11
1,976
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
-20
Net Working Capital
1QFY14
60
2QFY14
Inventory days
58
54
3QFY14
67
35
37
37
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
51
39
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
49
2QFY15
Growth (YoY %)
197.7
Rev. YoY
117
95.9
65
3QFY14
4QFY14
753
539
604
676
4QFY14
2QFY14
696
19.1
3QFY14
1,259
22
-17
342
2QFY14
1,479
-55.4
1QFY14
1,688
-7.5
2QFY15
752
1QFY14
-3.3
1QFY15
22.8
11 November 2014
44
407
-30.0
377
2QFY15
58
1QFY15
2QFY14
1QFY14
-16
Jain Irrigation
31.7
920
652
616
2QFY15
286
2QFY14
3QFY14
264
4QFY14
802
1300
276
66
190
1QFY14
1,946
Inventory days
315
963
1QFY15
913
4QFY14
3QFY14
881
3QFY14
2QFY14
345
47.6
39.6
-12.2
2QFY14
439
Rev. YoY
-16.3
1QFY14
495
172
49.1
40.4
-29.5
1QFY14
8.9
19.3
1QFY15
74.9
Rev. YoY
4QFY14
88
87
4QFY14
1QFY15
102
66
48
1QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY15
162
155
195
176
135
78
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
11 November 2014
Jain Irrigation
On a consolidated (C/L) basis net working capital reduced from 174 days to 158
days in 2QFY15 (145 days in 1QFY15).
Inventory days
137
135
126
104
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
137
119
121
1QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY14
2QFY14
123
129
122
115
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Exhibit 23: C/L net working capital days declined by 16 days YoY
Net Working Capital
162
1QFY14
174
2QFY14
161
3QFY14
158
142
145
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
11 November 2014
Jain Irrigation
Exhibit 24: Standalone net debt
31.1
29.9
41.9
29.4
42.4
42
40.1
39.8
28.2
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
38.9
1QFY15
2QFY15
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
Exhibit 26: Debt Equity to decline from 1.8x in FY14 to 1.0x in FY17
Net Debt (INR m)
2.0
34,442
1.6
1.8
35,654
38,601
1.6
1.3
35,651
33,183
1.0
30,390
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
RoCE (%)
16.7
14.0
14.4
13.5
13.8
10.8
FY12
18.7
RoE (%)
FY13
10.0
FY14
10.1
FY15E
6.4
FY16E
FY17E
11 November 2014
FY12
2.4
3.1
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Jain Irrigation
Story in charts
Exhibit 29: JI is the market leader in MIS business in India
55%
90%
78%
65%
25%
20%
55%
52%
10%
Jain Irrigation
Netafim
Others
Israel
Russia
Spain
US
Brazil
369
343
257
180
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
1.6
150
1.8
FY12
35,654
1.6
FY13
35,651
FY14
1.3
38,601
34,442
FY09
India
329
255
China
3%
FY15E
33,183
FY16E
FY12
11 November 2014
13.8
10.8
10.0
10.1
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
Jain Irrigation
High receivables.
Increase in raw material price.
Reduction/removal of subsidy provided for micro
irrigation equipments.
Target
Price (INR)
Upside
(%)
Reco.
120
36.4
Buy
MOSL
Forecast
FY15
FY16
3.1
7.5
Consensus
Forecast
3.8
6.5
Variation
(%)
-18.2
16.3
Jun-14
Sep-13
28.7
28.7
27.5
DII
3.3
3.5
0.8
FII
48.0
51.0
52.7
Others
20.1
16.8
19.1
Promoter
11 November 2014
10
Jain Irrigation
(INR Million)
2014
58,281
16.1
7,700
13.2
2,045
5,654
4,676
463
2,300
-860
-462
53.7
-398
667
34.9
0
667
2015E
64,388
10.5
8,471
13.2
2,455
6,016
4,534
193
254
1,421
213
15.0
1,208
1,424
113.5
0
1,424
Balance sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
11 November 2014
2016E
76,059
18.1
10,664
14.0
2,563
8,101
3,969
228
0
4,360
872
20.0
3,488
3,488
144.9
0
3,487
2017E
90,055
18.4
12,626
14.0
2,692
9,934
3,639
270
0
6,565
1,313
20.0
5,252
5,252
50.6
0
5,252
(INR Million)
2014
925
20,831
21,755
40,583
1,412
63,955
41,514
13,742
27,771
807
14
52,258
18,364
17,994
1,968
13,932
18,089
17,473
617
34,169
63,955
2015E
925
21,714
22,639
37,583
1,412
61,838
44,621
16,197
28,423
0
14
52,334
20,268
16,917
1,918
13,230
20,127
19,503
624
32,207
61,839
2016E
2017E
925
925
24,768 29,479
25,693 30,404
34,583 31,583
1,412
1,412
61,893 63,604
46,921 49,221
18,760 21,452
28,160 27,768
0
0
14
14
56,850 64,054
23,598 27,957
17,279 18,882
1,386
1,179
14,587 16,037
24,325 29,427
23,527 28,445
798
982
32,524 34,627
61,893 63,604
E: MOSL Estimates
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
1.4
5.9
47.0
0.6
-68.0
3.1
8.4
49.0
0.7
26.9
7.5
13.1
55.6
0.9
12.4
11.4
17.2
65.8
1.1
10.3
60.7
14.9
1.9
1.4
10.3
0.7
28.4
10.4
1.8
1.2
9.0
0.8
11.6
6.7
1.6
1.0
6.9
1.0
7.7
5.1
1.3
0.8
5.6
1.3
3.1
10.0
6.4
10.1
14.4
13.8
18.7
16.7
0.9
109.7
115.0
96.9
1.0
95.1
114.9
98.5
1.2
82.2
113.2
102.2
1.4
75.8
113.3
105.0
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.0
2014
-860
2,045
0
4,676
41
-1,551
5,731
-2,615
-407
138
-2,885
0
1,216
-4,638
-265
-3,202
-356
2,324
1,968
2015E
1,675
2,455
0
4,340
213
1,912
9,915
-2,300
0
193
-2,107
0
-3,000
-4,534
-325
-7,859
-50
1,968
1,918
2016E
4,360
2,563
0
3,741
872
-850
8,942
-2,300
0
228
-2,072
0
-3,000
-3,969
-433
-7,402
-532
1,918
1,386
(INR Million)
2017E
6,565
2,692
0
3,369
1,313
-2,310
9,003
-2,300
0
270
-2,030
0
-3,000
-3,639
-541
-7,180
-207
1,386
1,179
11
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JainorIrrigation
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For Singapore
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Anosh Koppikar
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