Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
David P. Goldman
Financing of
securities at
American brokerdealers remains a
third below the
2008 peak
US banks own
Treasuries, not
structured
securities
The bad news is always the good news: the reason that American banks can't make
any money is that they can't find risk to put on their books. The highly profitable
business of financing hedge funds through the repo marketone source of contagion
concern during the Lehman Crisishas fallen by a third since 2008, as Exhibit 1 on
page 1 shows. We observe in Exhibit 2 that risky securities at US banks have shrunk
by a fifth since the crisis. That is not surprising, given the collapse of structured
product issuance. The securities that offered banks a phony Aaa/AAA rating and a 25
basis point spread above LIBOR have become legacy assets tucked into the back book,
and their principal continues to run off rapidly.
Exhibit 2: Non-Treasury Securities at US Banks
MF Global seems to have spooked the market, after Jon Corzine's European
government bond trade contributed to the demise of the broker-dealer. But the fact is
that risk is diminishing among broker-dealers.
The amount of leverage on broker-dealer books, meanwhile, continues to shrink. We
observe in Exhibit 3 overleaf that shareholders' equity as a percentage of total balance
sheet has improved substantially since 2008.
Exhibit 3: Ownership Equity/Assets, Securities Industry
Equity has
returned to 5% of
assets in the
broker-dealer
industry from only
3% in 2007
Source: SIFMA
What does not make sense is that European banks still are trading at higher levels
than the most beaten-up American franchises, namely Citi and Bank of America.
EXHIBIT 4: SELECTED US AND EUROPEAN BANKS, JANUARY 2, 2006 = 100
What's wrong
with this picture?
The comparison is even more relevant to preferred stocks. There is now a nearly 4point (or 20%) price difference between the preferred stocks of Bank of America and
Deutsche Bank, respectively.
EXHIBIT 5: BAC 6% PREFERRED (IKR VS. DEUTSCHE BANK 6.375% PREFERRED (DUA)
Source: NYSE
There's no reason to expect American banks to make much money during the next
year. Non-performing loans will be somewhat worse than the banks forecast, if the
price of structured home equity and commercial real estate securities is any guide (see
"Portfolio Implications of the Recovery in Business Investment"). The flat yield curve
leaves little room for the banks to make money in that market. The recovery in
commercial and industrial lending is proceeding slowly and will have little impact on
earnings in the short-term. They are, in fact, zombies, but that is not a bad thing.
Zombies are not dead, and they are hard to kill.
EXHIBIT 7: WHY SHOULD CITI TRADE IN LOCKSTEP WITH (AND LOWER THAN)
UNICREDITO? DAILY DATA SINCE JAN. 1, 2006
Short European financials, long American would have paid well today, and I doubt the
trade is close to finished.