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R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
05 JAN 09 JAN 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
MCX Gold drifted lower as global prices eased a bit in thin trade today. Near
termdemand worries are weighing on the yellow metal. COMEX Gold dropped around
$20 in intradaymoves as yearend drew closer. The yellow metal tested near two week
highs of around $1210per ounce earlier in the week but an overwhelming rally in the
US dollar capped the gainsfor the metal. Prices dropped under $1200 per ounce mark
and fell in the last tradinghours of the calendar year 2014 as US dollar strengthened
further. The metal currentlyquotes at $1182.30 per ounce, down $1.80 per ounce on
the day. MCX Gold futures aretrading at Rs 26623 per 10 grams, down Rs 77 per 10
grams on the day.India gold imports have moderated in last few weeks after the surge
in festive seasonduring Ocotber-November. In the first half of December, gold imports
were at 22 tonnes. Inthe previous month, gold imports stood at 151 tonnes, All India
Gems and JewelleryFederation stated, according to media reports. The imports had
surged seven times over theyear to around 150 tonnes in November 2014. However,
the current period is consideredslightly lax for the physical demand and the tempo in
retail purchases would be slow incoming days, keeping a tab on spot prices. purchases
of American Eagle gold coin drop of around 39%.
Oil fell to the lowest since mid-2009 amid growing supply from Russia and Iraq and
signs of manufacturing weakness in Europe and China.Futures headed for a sixth
weekly loss in New York and London. Oil supplies in Iraq and Russia surged to the
highest level in decades in December, according to data from both countries
governments. Euro-area factory output expanded less than initially estimated in
December. A manufacturing gauge in China, the worlds second-largest oil consumer,
fell to the weakest level in 18 months, government data showed yesterday.China
PMI was more of the same while we are seeing weaker than expected PMI in
Europe, Ole Sloth Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said by email. This adds to the support for the dollar. So we are kicking off 2015 with a strong
dollar and weak oil theme.Oil slumped 46 percent in New York in 2014, the steepest
drop in six years and second-worst since trading began in 1983, as U.S. producers and
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ceded no ground in their battle
for market share. OPEC pumped above its quota for a seventh month in December
even as U.S. output expanded to the highest in more than three decades.
Copper headed for a third weekly decline, the longest streak since October, as a gauge
of manufacturing in China slid to the lowest in 18 months and euro-area data was
weaker than expected.Chinas official Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 50.1 in
December from 50.3 in November, according to data released yesterday. A private
PMI reading for the worlds largest metals user dropped to 49.6 earlier this week, the
lowest in seven months. A figure below 50 signifies contraction. Euro-area
manufacturing expanded less than initially estimated in December.

Near Term
Demand Worries
Weigh On Gold.

Oil Trades at 5
1/2-Year Low After
Russia, Iraq Boost
Supplies.

Copper Heads for

Third Weekly

Chinas PMI is a sign of weak growth momentum, Nomura International Plc analysts
including Wendy Chen said in a research note e-mailed today. With no inflation
pressure, we expect more policy easing this quarter, they said.

Drop on Weaker

Copper for delivery in three months dropped 0.5 percent to $6,271 a metric ton by
11:05 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The metal fell 14 percent in 2014, the
biggest annual loss in three years. Prices are down 0.5 percent this week. In New York,
copper futures for March rose 0.1 percent to $2.8285 a pound.

Data.

China, Europe

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Jan 5 All Day

Total Vehicle Sales

16.9M

17.2M

Jan 6 8:15pm

Final Services PMI

53.8

53.6

8:30pm

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

58.2

59.3

8:30pm

Factory Orders m/m

-0.3%

-0.7%

Jan 7 6:45pm

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

227K

208K

7:00pm

Trade Balance

-42.3B

-43.4B

9:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

Jan 8 12:30am

FOMC Meeting Minutes

5:00am

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

6:00pm

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

7:00pm

Unemployment Claims

9:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

Jan 9 1:30am

Consumer Credit m/m

15.1B

13.2B

7:00pm

Non-Farm Employment Change

241K

321K

7:00pm

Unemployment Rate

5.7%

5.8%

7:00pm

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

0.2%

0.4%

8:30pm

Wholesale Inventories m/m

0.4%

0.4%

-1.8M

-20.7%
291K

298K
-26B

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX
GOLD
showed
sideways
movement, tested the support level of
26500 and also found support of
trendline. Now, if it is able to sustain
above 27300 then next resistance level
is seen around 27800. On other hand if
it maintain below 26500 then bearish
movement may drag it towards the
next support level of 26000.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to SELL
below 26500 for the targets of 26000
with stop loss of 27300.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

26500

26280

26057

27109

27500

27800

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
sideways movement last week, found
support around 35830 . Now, if it
sustain above 37300 then next
resistance is seen in the range of
39300-40000. On lower side maintain
below 35830 then next support is seen
around 34500 closing below the
important support of 34500 drag it to
recent bottom of 33500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 35800 for
the target of 33500, with stop loss of
38000.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

35800

34500

33450

37350

38600

40100

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil last week break the
important support of 3500 and
maintain below it. Now, the next
important support is 3370 if it sustain
below 3370 then bears may again
active and find next support around
3100. If some correction occurs and
maintains above 3500 then 3800 to
4000 range will act as major resistance
for it.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 3370 for the target of 3100,
with stop loss of 3550.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

3370

3120

2885

3765

4060

4350

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement and closed below 400.
Important trendline has been broken
and its also look like a small head and
shoulder and it is closed below the
neckline of head and shoulder now if it
is sustain below 400 then it will drag
towards next important support of
390. On the other hand immediate
resistance is seen near 411 and closing
above 411 drag it towards 418.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the
target of 390.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

394.10

389.80

385.40

404.70

410.90

418.30

DISCLAIMER

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