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Technical Outlook 2015

Research Analyst:
Dharmesh Shah
dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
Pabitro Mukherjee
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com

Nitin Kunte, CMT


nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
Vinayak Parmar
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

Dipesh Dagha
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com

Riding
the bull
zealService
to zenith
Deal Team
with
At Your
BSE Sensex Monthly Bar Chart

Indian equities gave a thunderous applause to the strong verdict in the


general elections in May 2014. The markets have rediscovered their
animal spirits that is very well reflected in the performance of domestic
equities, which are up 31% YTD and 15% post election results, thereby
allowing India to top the global equity charts

The breakout past the seven year consolidation pattern


has signalled a structural shift in the market from
sideways to bullish. The convincing breakout past the
seven year bullish Ascending Triangle pattern has major
implication of upside towards 35000 in the forthcoming
years for the Sensex

As we enter the second year of changed regime, we believe the markets


will continue to give a thumbs-up to the pro-reforms government and
continue to rise in a similar fashion as displayed over the past six months
The strong resolution past the seven year bullish Ascending Triangle
pattern has major bullish implications and supports upsides towards
35000/10500 (Sensex/Nifty) levels for the current northward move over
the coming year

2008

2010

2013

21206

21108

21483

We do not foresee any major shift in the current directional positive bias.
However, any sizable correction towards 25000/7400 (Sensex/Nifty)
should be used as an attractive incremental opportunity to buy for the
long term

Theme: Cyclicals to be the flavour of 2015

Seven year consolidation post


2008 peak took the pictorial
shape of a bullish Ascending
Triangle pattern

Our bottom up approach based on technical parameters applied across


the entire universe of NSE cash segment suggests cyclicals will be at the
forefront of the rally in 2015. The midcap space has a lot of headroom to
do the catch-up exercise and will outperform the benchmarks, going
forward
Top sectors: Auto, auto ancillary, capital goods, PSUs and cement
Our preferred picks: Bhel (BHEL), BEL (BHAELE), Alstom India (ABBALS),
Exide (EXIIND), Federal Mogul Goetze (GOEIND), Asahi India Glass
(ASAIND), Ramco Cement (MADCEM), GIC Housing (GICHOU) and
Nilkamal (NILPLA)
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

All price charts as on December 18, 2014

Multi-fold
rally
followed
by multi-year consolidation, perfect recipe for bull market
Deal Team
At
Your Service
BSE Sensex Quarterly Bar Chart
Historically, the multi-year bull runs are followed by multi-year
consolidation as markets enter a reconciliation phase. As the consolidation
matures with the passage of time and price correction, the market will
pierce new highs above the previous bull cycle peak to signal continuance
of the secular uptrend
2008
In the context of our markets, there is also one historical precedence of a
multi-fold rally followed by a multi-year consolidation, which adds
credence to the current secular bull market setup. Between 1989 and
1992, the Sensex witnessed an 11-fold rally from 390 to 4546. This was
followed by a 11 year consolidation phase as the index gyrated in a range
from 1992 to 2003. The breakout from this elongated consolidation paved
way for the multi-fold rally from 2003 to 2007

7 Fold rally between


2003 to 2008
7 year consolidation
2008 to 2014
1992

The Sensex witnessed a seven fold rally between 2003 and 2007 (2900 to
21206) and, thereafter, entered a consolidation phase lasting seven years
from 2008 to early 2014. The resolution past the 2008 bull cycle peak,
therefore, has the underpinnings of a burgeoning bull market, which can
lead to unfolding of multi-fold gains over the coming years

2003

The characteristics of market internals during the past seven year


consolidation and post the breakout past the previous bull-cycle peak
defines the changing dynamics of the market. Between 2008 and 2014, the
index re-tested the 2008 high on two occasions in 2010 and 2013.
However, both these attempts lacked broader market participation. The
firm resolution past the 2008 peak in 2014 has the backing of strong
participation of broader markets that represents the larger section of
market participants, which augurs well for the longevity of the uptrend

11 Fold rally
between 1989-1992

1989

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

11 year consolidation
1992 to 2003

Headroom
forcurrent
run to extend to 35000/10500
Deal Team
At Yourbull
Service
The breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern comprising entire seven year consolidation since 2008 till early 2014 has major bullish implications as it
signals the end of elongated correction phase and start of a new uptrend. The minimum measuring implication of the price pattern i.e. the width of the triangles
base (21206 7697=13509) added to the breakout point of 21206 projects an upside potential up to 35000 /10500 (Sensex/Nifty) for the current rally over 2015
The entire up move since 2012 has occurred in a rising channel originating from 2009 lows as highlighted in the adjoining yearly chart. Over the past three
years, the index has respected the upper and lower bands of this long term channel. The past two years lows are resting upon the lower band of this channel
while 2014 high is also placed at the upper band of this channel. The upper band of this channel for 2015 is placed at 35000 levels, making this a likely target
BSE Sensex Monthly Bar Chart

BSE Sensex Yearly Candlestick Chart


Upper band of Rising
Channel for 2015 @ 35000

Minimum measuring implication of the pattern i.e.


width of the base of Triangle (13061 points) added to
the breakout point of 21206 projects upside potential
towards 34500 levels for the current rally

2008 high
21206

2010 high
21108

2013 high
21483

Seven year consolidation


since 2008 to 2014
occurred in Ascending
Triangle pattern

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Conversely,
is strong base; act bravely if it materialises
Deal Team 25000/7400
At Your Service
Long term investors should note that secular bull markets also go through phases of secondary corrections, which is a healthy phenomenon to work off the
excesses developed during rallies. Even during the secular bull run from 2003 to 2008 the index was subject to intermediate corrections ranging from 13% to
30%. However, these counter trend corrections did not alter the overall bullish fabric of the market. We have identified a crucial support zone where demand
will outstrip supply to help investors ride the uptrend and also provide a fresh entry opportunity for those who have missed the earlier rally.
The long term trendline connecting yearly lows of 2003 and 2009 acted as a cushion during 2013 and 2014 as the respective yearly lows rest upon the same.
The value of this trendline for 2015 is at 22300 /7000, which will remain a major base for the index. We believe any corrective decline towards 25000 / 7400
should be used as a long term buying opportunity. Placement of 52 week EMA, the base formed post election results and 38.2% retracement of 2013-14 rally
all coinciding around at 25000/7400, reiterates our view point that any declines towards these levels should be bought into.
BSE Sensex Yearly Candlestick Chart

BSE Sensex Weekly Bar Chart

Long term trendline


2015 value @ 22300

Long term Support @ 25000

52 week EMA ~25000


Post Election result base
formation ~25000
38.2% retracement of 2013-14
rally ~25000

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Broader
markets:
up for relatively strong performance
Deal Team
At Brace
Your Service
The broader markets are at the cusp, led by a major turnaround in the BSE midcap index, as it has steered past its 2008 high (10245) while the small cap index
has also strengthened above its 2010 high (11366). A look back at the behaviour of the benchmark Sensex after its breakout above 2008 highs provides a strong
roadmap for the broader markets, going forward. The Sensex entered a strong bull trend after conquering its 2008 high (21206) in April 2014 and has already
rallied 35% above its 2008 peak. We believe the BSE midcap index is all set to follow suit with the benchmarks and enter a strong uptrend as we head into 2015.
A similar magnitude of rally replicated on the BSE midcap index (minimum implication) would project upsides towards 14000 over the medium term

BSE Sensex and BSE Mid-cap index comparative Chart

2008

2010

2013

BSE Sensex

Midcap index
The Sensex got catapulted into a higher orbit after confirming a resolute breakout
past its 2008-10 highs during early 2014 and has already rallied 35% above its
2008 peak. The Midcap Index is following in the footsteps of the benchmark and
has just risen above its 2008 peak signaling a major trend reversal. A similar
magnitude of up move in the midcap index is on the cards moving into 2015

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research (Charts rebased to 100)

Top
the Service
Bottom up way
DealPicks:
TeamGoing
Atup
Your
Moving away from the conventional method of stock selection, we have
adopted a more statistical and rationale bottom up approach in our stock
selection process
We have developed a statistical model comprising four major parameters,
which are the embedded characteristics of an outperformer. The four
major parameters included in the statistical model focus on assessment of
price structure, trend gauging parameters, momentum and investor
participation (trading volume), which form the four key tenets defining a
structural uptrend

Top Picks
9

In the first step, we ran the model on the entire gamut of NSE cash stocks
(1450 stocks) filtering the stocks with criteria ranging from fulfilling at
least one and up to all four parameters.

Technically
Strong stocks meeting
3 or all 4 parameters
(44 stocks)
Sectoral segregation

The number of stocks from the NSE cash universe fulfilling at least one
parameter filtered down the list to 410 stocks. Moving up the ladder, we
shifted focus to the set of stocks, which fulfilled at least 75% of the criteria
i.e. meeting three or all four parameters that further narrowed down the
list to 44 stocks. These short-listed 44 stocks represent an established
uptrend and carry the characteristics of strong outperformance on the
long term time frame (List appended in following pages)

Filtering process: Elimination of


non-trending stocks.
Outcome: Stocks fulfilling at least
one criteria (410 stocks)

We restricted ourselves to analysing the bucket of 44 stocks which


already fulfilled major technical parameters. The sectoral segregation of
these stocks also threw up interesting insights. Sectors with higher
representation in the bucket list reflected the inherent strength in that
space and presented an alternate perspective of identifying the
outperforming sectors

Stock Universe NSE Cash Segment


(1450 Stocks)

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top
a bottom
up approach
DealPicks:
TeamTaking
At Your
Service
Sector / Scrip Name
3 month

Return Matrix (%)


6 month
12 month

Price
Structure

Trend
Analyser

Momentum

Investor
participation

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Auto Anicllary
Apollo Tyres
Asahi India Glas
Banco Products
Bosch
Eicher Motors
Exide Inds.
Federal-Mogul Go
Motherson Sumi
Munjal Showa
Shivam Autotech

14.2
13.5
2.1
27.8
22.4
-2.4
28.3
-0.5
0.0
6.2

12.8
56.2
61.9
60.3
93.8
17.7
57.8
31.1
47.7
81.2

163.6
153.0
175.9
114.8
189.3
46.6
89.4
114.5
188.7
140.0

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Capital goods
AIA Engg.
Alstom India
BHEL
Cummins India
Esab India
Larsen & Toubro
SKF India
Thermax

8.1
11.4
14.5
23.6
-0.2
-2.2
11.5
14.5

32.7
12.6
2.6
31.8
-6.3
-10.1
25.1
3.1

121.7
54.2
59.6
102.5
45.4
40.2
88.1
40.6

Cement
19 Heidelberg Cem.
20 The Ramco Cement
21 UltraTech Cem.

-0.5
-5.6
-2.3

17.4
5.2
-9.1

104.7
77.3
40.6

BFSI
Bank of Baroda
HDFC Bank
Indian Bank
Punjab Natl.Bank
Union Bank (I)
GIC Housing Fin

9.3
8.9
18.9
11.3
0.2
9.4

18.7
10.3
9.1
13.2
-7.2
17.1

53.5
35.6
78.8
89.5
78.9
86.6

22
23
24
25
26
27

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

Remark
Statistical data mining hands out numero uno position to
auto ancilliary pack as it presents the most broad based
performance. While some of the stocks from the space
have enjoyed multi-fold returns already, few others are on
the cusp of breaking into a higher trajectory and stand tall
on the grounds of an improving price structure,
sustainabile trend and growing investor appetite

While stocks like L&T, AIA Engineering and SKF sail


through a structural bull phase, technically, we believe
stocks like Bhel and Alstom India are in the early stages
of the bull trend and, therefore, prefer them to ride the
ongoing rally in the capital goods space

The bullish trend across the cement space is expected to


spill over further in 2015. Ramco Cement is our preferred
pick based on low beta
The bucket of BFSI stocks, which fullfils at least three out
of four criteria of statistical model throws up interesting
insights. While private banks have remained key
performers in 2014, PSU banking stocks look equally
exciting. We, however, chosen GIC Housing over others
as it fulfils all four criteria

Top
a bottom
up approach
DealPicks:
TeamTaking
At Your
Service
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35

Consumer discretionery / staple


Hitachi Home
IFB Inds.
Nilkamal Ltd
Pidilite Inds.
Britannia Inds.
CCL Products
Arvind Ltd
T.V. Today Netw.

63.9
79.0
24.7
20.6
22.4
41.3
-17.4
-6.9

254.5
327.5
46.5
58.1
84.6
148.8
16.7
46.3

432.8
557.8
198.0
64.2
98.7
313.6
104.0
71.4

IT
36 Info Edg.(India)
37 Sonata Software

-1.9
4.2

15.5
81.1

87.6
287.1

Pharma
38 Cipla
39 Indoco Remedies

0.6
1.2

50.7
81.8

65.3
153.9

PSU
40 Bharat Electron
41 Container Corpn.
42 H P C L

27.0
0.7
17.5

44.9
9.5
35.7

161.9
76.0
157.8

Others
43 Indian Hotels
44 Tata Chemicals

17.9
6.1

11.5
27.6

97.5
55.6

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

The sector enjoys a fair slice of the ongoing bull market,


which reflects in an improving price structure of many
stocks. While many stocks on the list look technically
positive, here we stick to the stock which qualifies on all
parameters

Apart from PSU banking space, many other stocks have


enjoyed renewed investor participation. We prefer the
leader from defence sector and Container Corporation to
play in this space

Bhel:
breakout triggers resumption of uptrend
Deal Long
Teamterm
Attrendline
Your Service
CMP: | 258.00

Buying range: | 232-247

Target: | 320.00
Monthly Bar Chart

The share price of Bhel reversed its prolonged downtrend of nearly four
years by resolving past the most dominant falling trend line in place since
October 2010 in the first quarter of 2014

Stop loss: | 195.00


538

The stock has embarked upon a steady


uptrend after breakout past the long term
downward sloping trendline in March 2014

Structurally, the V shaped recovery led to the faster retracement of the


last major falling segment as the 17 months decline from April 2012 high
of | 274 to August 2013 low of | 100 was completely retraced in just nine
months. The faster retracement of a major down leg signalled a change of
guard from a long term horizon

2012 high @ 325

274

The corrective decline unfolding since May 2014 high of | 291 saw the
stock retrace its preceding major up move from| 100 to | 291 by 50% at
October 2014 low of | 195. The presence of the medium-term rising
trendline around | 195 levels attracted fresh demand for the stock and led
to a higher bottom formation on larger degree charts highlighting
strength in the underlying trend

50% @ 200
The V shaped recovery led to the faster
retracement of the last major falling segment
signalling revival of bullish momentum

The stock is well poised to embark upon its next major up move after
confirming a higher bottom at | 195. We expect the stock to head towards
| 325 levels over the medium term horizon, thus providing a favourable
reward/risk set-up to ride the up move in 2015. The 50% retracement of
the entire 2010 to 2013 decline is placed at | 325 levels, which also
coincides with the yearly high of 2012

100

MACD has ventured into positive territory trigger line


on monthly chart signaling strong momentum

The long term monthly MACD oscillator is in a rising trajectory and has
just ventured into the positive territory above its trigger line, thus
supporting the overall positive trend in price
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 17, 2014 at 14:10 hrs

Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

10

| 60652 crore
2
226 / 250

Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA

| 490 crore
291.5 /145.55
156.00

Bharat
Electronics
(BHAELE):
Breakout past multi-year highs
Deal Team
At Your
Service
CMP: | 2786.00

Buying range: | 2700-2770

Target: | 3650.00

Stop loss: | 2235.00

Monthly Bar Chart

The regime change in the general elections accompanied by a strong


mandate infused a fresh lese of life into PSU defence equipment provider
BEL. The stock staged a V shaped recovery to vault past its 2007 and
2010 highs of | 2250 in November 2014. The entire rally in 2014 displays
characteristics of an impulsive behaviour as the stock completely
overhauled its preceding decline of 46 months (April 2010 to February
2014) in a record five months. Such a faster retracement has larger
implication on the long term price structure and heralds a strong uptrend
for the stock, going forward

138.2% extension @ 3650

Breakout past multiyear highs backed by strong volume


participation signals long term shift of trend in favour of the
bulls. Measuring implication of the breakout opens upside
towards |3650 for the coming year
2251

The behaviour of volumes is testament to the changing dynamics of the


long term price trend in the stock. The entire rally since the start of 2014
has garnered record high participation as monthly volumes since
February 2014 (28.5 lakh shares) have been almost three times the 24
month average volume of 10 lakh shares

1701

We expect the stock to ride the new found momentum into 2015 as well
and remain on course towards target of | 3650. The measuring
implication of the multi-year range breakout, i.e. the magnitude of 201014 decline (| 2251 to | 893) projected from the breakout point of | 2251
opens upsides towards | 3650 levels on a larger time frame. This also
coincides with the 138.2% extension of the February-July rally (| 893 to
| 2318) measured from the August 2014 low of | 1701 projecting upside
towards the | 3650 region

893

Sharp surge in volumes since the start of 2014 signals


strong investor appetite for the stock

*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 09:36 hrs

Market Capitalisation
| 21220 crore Equity capital
| 80 crore
Face value
10
52 weeks H/L
3140.75/893
200/50 days EMA
1883 /2388
52 weeks EMA
1821.00

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

11

Alstom
India (ABBALS):
Thrusting out of contracting range
Deal Team
At Your Service
CMP: | 577.00

Buying range: | 550-570

Target: | 770.00

Stop loss: | 455.00

Monthly Bar Chart

The share price of Alstom India is at the cusp of a major turnaround as it


is emerging out of a long term contracting price range to signal a shift of
larger trend in favour of bulls. The entire price action since mid-2006 till
date has occurred in a contracting range as marked by two converging
trend lines in the adjoining long term price chart

Price breakout past the long term overhead


trendline originating since 2007 signals major
reversal of trend in favour of bulls

The stock witnessed a major base formation at the lower band of this
contracting range for over two years from January 2012 to April 2014
before finally lifting off to challenge the overhead trendline in November
2014. The two year consolidation at the support trendline drawn off the
2006 and 2008 lows signalled steady accumulation by stronger hands at
an important price juncture. The resolution past the overhead falling trend
line confirms the shift of larger degree trend in favour of bulls and augurs
well for the stock, going forward

276
Base formation at long term
support trendline for over 2 years
indicated accumulation by stronger
hands

210

The entire up move since April 2014 has garnered increased participation
as monthly volumes have consistently shot up over 2x the 12 month
average of 12 lakh shares. Volume expansion in the direction of prices is a
healthy sign indicating larger participation in the uptrend

182

Going forward, the stock is set to enter a sustainable uptrend and retrace
its 2010-13 decline (| 899 to | 275) by at least 80%, thereby providing
upsides towards | 770 over a medium-term horizon
RSI in up trend validates positive trend in price

The monthly RSI has emerged above its four year consolidation band and
is in a rising trajectory above the bullish reading of 60 signalling
continuation of positive momentum over a medium-term horizon
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 09:38 hrs

Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

12

| 3812 crore
10
330 /411

Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA

| 67 crore
644.5/301.5
317.00

Exide
a new bull phase
Deal (EXIIND):
Team AtEntering
Your Service
CMP: | 166.00

Buying range: | 156-166

Target: | 235.00

Stop loss: | 135.00

Monthly Bar Chart

The auto ancillary space was the toast of the Street in 2014. Investors
who lapped up auto ancillary stocks were rewarded handsomely as many
stocks produced multi-fold gains and are still going strong. Exide
Industries is one of the late movers from the auto ancillary space as the
stock began picking up steam towards the second half of 2014. The share
price resolved to fresh life-time highs during September 2014, thereby
signalling the end of four years of consolidation and the start of a new bull
trend

The stock has signaled a breakout past the four year


consolidation band backed by strong volumes which
opens upsides towards |245 levels over the coming years

175

Structurally, the entire horizontal price action since November 2010 in the
price band of | 175-105 panned out precisely above the 50% retracement
of its 2009-10 upsurge (| 34-175) highlighting accumulation at lower
levels. While the rally during 2009-10 panned out over 18 months, the 48
month corrective phase from late 2010 to mid 2014 could retrace the
preceding rally by only 50% price wise. Elongated time correction and
limited price correction form the key feature of a positive price structure
from a long term perspective

Base of consolidation at 50% @ 100

Post the recent resolve above its 2010 peak (| 179) we expect the stock to
enter a sustainable uptrend in the coming year and head towards | 245
being the measuring implication of the four trading range (| 175-105=70
points) projected above 2010 highs of | 175

34

The trading volumes during the price breakout above life-time highs and
in follow up over past few weeks have remained above their 24-month
average (3.5 crore shares) suggesting growing appetite to own the stock

Strong volume accompanying the breakout rally


suggests larger participation in the direction of trend

*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 10:54 hrs

Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA

Source: Bloomberg, Capital Line, ICICIdirect.com Research

13

| 14174 crore
1
149 /165

Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA

| 85 crore
183.4/99
147.00

Federal-Mogul
Goetze
Deal Team At
Your(GOEIND):
Service Long term Rounding breakout
CMP: | 377.00

Buying range: | 358-377

Target: | 520.00

Stop loss: | 295.00

Monthly Bar Chart

The revival of investor sentiment during the last year has seen the midcap
index register a breakout past its 2008 peak after a seven year gap. This
multi-year breakout has seen many stocks from the midcap and small cap
universe rise from long periods of hibernation. The share price of Federal
Mogul Goetze, an auto parts and equipment maker, is at the cusp of
moving out of a seven year consolidation pattern and provides a good
entry opportunity to ride the long term shift of price momentum

2006
|452

The stock is at the cusp of a major breakout from


the 7 year Rounding consolidation pattern and is
likely head towards |550 levels in the coming year

138.2% @ 550

Neckline @ 450

335

The entire price action since January 2007 till date represents a seven
year long Rounding pattern as highlighted in the adjoining monthly chart.
The strong surge in price momentum since May 2014 saw the stock post
a faster retracement of its last down leg as it recouped a 26 month decline
from February 2012 to April 2014 in just seven months signalling strong
bullish momentum. The stock tested the neckline of the major rounding
pattern placed around | 350 in November 2014. The cool-off in broader
markets over past few weeks has seen the stock consolidate just below
the neckline

174

We believe the stock is set to breakout past the seven year rounding
pattern and embark upon its next major up-leg in the coming years and,
therefore, presents a strong case for long term investment. We expect the
current rally off 2014 low of | 174 to move towards 138.2% extension of
the 2009-12 rally (| 27 to | 335) placed around | 550 levels

27
Long term monthly MACD generated a buy signal above its trigger line
validating the positive price trend

Long term monthly MACD oscillator is seen rebounding after taking


support at its trigger line & is seen diverging from its nine period average
suggesting continuance of strong upward momentum in the coming year
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 17, 2014 at 14:35 hrs
Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

14

| 2114 crore
10
282 /361

Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA

| 56 crore
449.4/174
274.00

Asahi
India (ASAIND):
Deal Team
At YourStructural
Service Bull in place.
CMP: | 115.00

Buying range: | 106-115

Target: | 168.00

Stop loss: | 80.00

Quarterly Bar Chart

The strong upsurge in 2014 has signalled a long term reversal of fortunes
for the price structure of Asahi India Glass. The combination of faster
retracement of last major down leg (2010-13), yearly volumes scaling past
seven-year average (2 crore shares) and resultant breakout from seven
year long bullish consolidation pattern signals end of an elongated seven
year corrective phase and beginning of structural bull market

Breakout from 7 year consolidation


100

After the multi-fold rally between 2002 and 2007 (| 9 to | 142), the stock
entered a corrective phase and oscillated between the broad range of
| 120 and | 30 levels over the last seven years from 2008 till recently. The
stock retraced its 2002-07 rally by 80% at | 35 levels and formed a Bullish
double bottom precisely at the crucial retracement support. The yearly
lows of 2008 and 2013 are placed precisely near the 80% retracement of
the major bull run

80% @ 35
Stock formed a bullish Double bottom at 80% retracement of
2002-2007 rally and registered a strong breakout in
November 2014 to signal resumption of long term uptrend

The current rally during 2014 has seen the stock completely overhaul its
preceding decline, which consumed 11 quarters between 2010 and 2013
in just four quarters, which highlighting resumption of strong positive
momentum. In the process, the stock registered a breakout past the
neckline of the Bullish double bottom formation to signal the end of seven
years of a corrective trend and start of a fresh long term uptrend. We
expect the share price to continue its long term up trend in coming years
and head towards | 170 being measuring implication of the consolidation
range (| 100-30=70 points) as projected above 2011 peak of | 100

Yearly volumes greater than 7 year average highlight


strong participation in the direction of primary trend

Long term RSI also registers a breakout from


bullish Double Bottom pattern

The strong momentum is also visible from quarterly RSI, which has
emerged above the reading of 60 for the first time since 2008 underlining
strong momentum from a medium-term perspective
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 17, 2014 at 14:18 hrs

Market Capitalisation
| 2799 crore Equity capital
| 24 crore
Face value
1
52 weeks H/L
135.7/40.15
200/50 days EMA
92 / 117
52 weeks EMA
88.00

Source: Bloomberg, , Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

15

Ramco
Cement
(MADCEM):
Long term Cup & Handle breakout
Deal Team
At
Your Service
CMP: | 301.00

Buying range: | 285-303

Target: | 420.00

Stop loss: 238.00

Monthly Bar Chart

The midcap cement space has garnered a lot of investor interest


throughout 2014. While stocks like JK Cement and JK Lakshmi, to name a
few, have already mopped up strong gains in 2014, we foresee a similar
opportunity emerging in Ramco Cement for the upcoming year

Price breakout past seven year long Cup & Handle


pattern has signaled a long term trend reversal for the
stock. Minimum measuring implication of the price
pattern will see the stock remain on course towards
target of | 425 levels in the coming year

A look at the long term price chart reveals that the entire price movement
since 2007 till mid-2014 took the pictorial shape of a well defined Cup &
Handle pattern as highlighted in the adjoining chart. A Cup & Handle is a
bullish reversal pattern having positive implication on the price front upon
resolution above the neckline of the pattern

Neckline @ 280

253

The stock scaled past the neckline formed by joining the yearly highs of
2007 (| 253) and 2013 (| 273) in June 2014 to signal a long term trend
reversal and start of a fresh bull trend. The breakout rally saw the stock
rally to a new life high of | 380 in November 2014. The recent look back in
prices to re-test the major breakout area provides a good investment
opportunity to ride the expected uptrend in the coming year

135

The minimum measuring implication of the price pattern i.e. the distance
between the neckline and the base of handle (| 280 135 = 145 points)
added to the neckline projects upside towards | 425 levels for the current
up move

Volume expansion in the direction of price


indicates strength in the underlying trend

Behaviour of volumes over a longer horizon charts also corroborates the


underlying strength in the trend. The price declines have been
accompanied by receding volumes while rallies have been backed by
stronger volumes highlighting larger participation in the direction of
primary trend
* Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 17, 2014 at 12:52 hrs
Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA

Source: Bloomberg, , Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

16

| 7259 crore
1
286 / 326

Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA

| 24 crore
380 /156.20
277.00

GIC
DealHousing
Team (GICHOU):
At Your Resolve
Servicepast three year consolidation.
CMP: | 180.00

Buying range: | 173-181

Target: | 250.00
Quarterly Bar Chart

The stock has emerged out of a three year consolidation in 2014 to mark
an end of the secondary correction and resumption of the long term up
trend. The resolve past three years consolidation has set the tone for
continuation of price momentum into the coming year, thus offering a
decent investment opportunity

Stop loss: | 144.00


Breakout from three year long
consolidation opens upside towards
| 250 levels in the coming year
136

The long term price chart of GIC Housing represents a well established
uptrend as the stock moves northwards in a rising peaks and troughs
manner while respecting its long term trendline originating way back
since 2001. The corrective decline during 2011 got arrested at the 61.8%
retracement of the 2009-10 rally (| 23-136) placed around | 60, which was
in close proximity to the long term trend line

147

77
61.8% @ 60

23

While the 2009-10 rally was swift and took only seven quarters to pan out,
the subsequent correction consumed double time (14 quarters) before
resolving past the 2010 peak. Such price/time behaviour is the hallmark of
a structural uptrend and augurs well for the stock, going forward

Volumes at the time of breakout from three year consolidation has been
above its 10 quarter average indicating larger participation in trend

The current bullish momentum is expected to pan out over next several
quarters offering a decent opportunity to ride the expected uptrend. We
expect the stock to travel towards | 255 being the 161.8% extension of
the 2012-13 up leg (60-147) as projected from 2013 lows of | 77
Quarterly MACD is seen diverging from its 9
period average suggesting strong momentum

The strong momentum as exhibited by price is also corroborated by the


long term monthly MACD indicator, which has moved into the positive
territory above its trigger line signalling continuance of the uptrend
* Call has been initiated in Click to Gain on 15th December 2014 at 14:11 hrs

Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA

Source: Bloomberg, , Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

17

| 970 crore
10
154 / 177

Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA

| 54 crore
199.4 /92.85
149.00

Nilkamal
(NILPLA):
Dawn
of a new uptrend.
Deal Team
At Your
Service
CMP: | 473.00

Buying range: | 455-474

Target: | 660.00

Stop loss: | 375.00

Quarterly Bar Chart

The share price of Nilkamal resolved above its 2007 and 2010 peaks
(~| 405) during December 2014 to signal a major turnaround on larger
degree price charts. The overcoming of a multi-year supply barrier above
| 405 by the share price signals a structural shift in favour of bulls and has
larger positive implications for the stock, going forward

Price breakout into new life highs above


multi-year peaks flags off new uptrend
2010
405

2007
385

The first major indication of bulls regaining control of the larger trend is
reflected in the velocity of the current up move from late 2013 till date.
The stock completely overhauled its preceding 12 quarter decline (201013) in just five quarters suggesting a faster pace of retracement and
reaffirmed a bullish price structure
95

The swing lows of 2013 got anchored at the key long term trend line
running through 2001 and 2009 lows maintaining rising peak and trough
formation on longer time interval charts. The breakout into new life-time
highs during the current month provides the Dow Theory confirmation of
a long term bull trend

Long term tend line

37

The positive price structure is further augmented by the behaviour of


volumes, which surged more than twice the 12 quarter average (23 lakh
shares) during the recent breakout highlighting strong participation and
augurs well for the longevity of the current bull trend

Volumes surged more than twice the 12 quarter average


during price breakout signaling strength in the breakout

Magnitude of the current rally during 2013-14 has already achieved parity
with the 2009-10 bull run. Going forward, we expect the rally to extend
towards 138.2% extension of 2009-10 rally (| 37-405) as projected from
March 2014 lows of | 134 providing a target of | 660
Call has been initiated on i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 12:25 hrs
Market Capitalisation
| 662 crore
Equity capital
Face value
10
52 weeks H/L
200/50 days EMA
314 /389
52 weeks EMA

Source: Bloomberg, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

18

| 15 crore
505.8/134
301.00

Bank
to zenith
Deal Nifty:
TeamCommander
At Your Service
CNX Bank Nifty Monthly Bar Chart

The Bank Nifty emerged out of its four year consolidation by steering past
the yearly highs of 2010 and 2013 towards mid-2014. The strong
resolution past the four year consolidation band above 13300 has flagged
off a strong bull run, which will continue to propel the sectoral
heavyweight Bank Nifty in the forthcoming year as well

161.8% Fibonacci extension


@ 24000
The current rally from 2013 low of 8349 to recent
all time high of 18929 is already larger than the
2009-2010 rally signaling extending market. We
expect the Bank Nifty to continue its northward
journey in 2015 and head towards 24000 levels

We expect the Bank Nifty to continue its northward journey in 2015 and
travel towards 24000 levels. The current rally off 2013 low of 8349 to
recent all time high of 18929 has already surpassed the magnitude of
2009-2010 rally which measured around 10000 points. The faster pace and
larger magnitude of current move as compared to the preceding rally
clearly signals an extending market which has significant steam left to
continue its rally in similar fashion. The next logical price objective in an
extending markets is derived by plotting the Fibonacci price extension.
The 161.8% Fibonacci price extension of 2009-2010 rally (3290 to 13320)
measured from 2013 low of 8349 projects the next destination for current
rally towards 24000 levels over the coming year

2010
13320

From a structural point of view, the long term price chart of the Bank Nifty
exhibits a strong underlying trend. Post the 2008 market wide deluge, the
Bank Nifty was one of the first heavyweight index to surpass its 2008 peak
(10806) in 2010 itself

2013
13348

Support zone
38.2% @ 14900

2008
10806

After a three fold rally during 2009-10 the index went into hibernation
mode and consolidated between the broad range of 13300 and 7800 over
the next four years between 2010 and mid-2014. Price wise, the index
retraced its 2009-10 rally by just 50% while time wise correction extended
to 200% of the preceding rally. Elongated time correction with limited
price decline highlights the inherent strength in the trend. The index
formed a double bottom precisely near the 50% retracement of 2009-10
rally (8000) and registered a strong breakout in 2014 to signal the end of
the four year basing pattern and continuance of the larger uptrend

8349
3 Fold rally between
2009-2010
2009
3290

The major support base for the index is placed around 15000 being the
confluence of the 38.2% retracement of the 2013-14 rally and intermediate
base formed during six month consolidation during June-October 2014
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

19

Double Bottom near


50% retracement of
2009-2010 rally

Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE Auto Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE Auto Index (18389)


The sector has been one of the frontrunners post the 2008 era and continues
to trend higher as seen from adjacent long term charts.

Breakout from multi


year consolidation

The space reflects footprints of a structural bull run as prices continue to


trough above 13-quarter EMA (long term price average) suggesting
consistent demand for auto stocks
The Auto Index accelerated full throttle after registering a strong breakout
past its three years consolidation in early 2014. The sector has been in a well
structured uptrend, thereafter, and is cruising northward in a rising channel

13-quarter EMA

BSE Capital Goods Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE Capital Goods Index (15192)


The sector witnessed renewed investor participation as the investor bias
shifted from defensives to cyclical during 2014 upsurge. In the process,
prices broke past the down trending trend line connecting 2008 and 2010
peaks suggesting resumption of fresh up trend and end of seven year
consolidation phase
The bullish arguments in capital goods are also backed by our statistical
approach to stock selection wherein a wide range of stocks from the sector
have emerged

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

20

Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE PSU Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE PSU Index (8018)


The PSU space emerged as the dark horse during 2014 gaining 35% YTD, as
the regime change with a strong mandate during general elections in May
2014 generated a lot of investor interest across the PSU space. The PSU
index is at the cusp of moving out of a long term consolidation band.
The revival of bullish sentiment is already reflected on the charts as the
index completely overhauled its preceding nine quarter fall (2011 to 2013) in
just three quarters. The strong rally since the start of 2014 saw the index
approach an important overhead trendline. The sideways consolidation just
below the major trendline over the last few months is seen as a base
building process before the impending breakout. We expect the index to
eventually breakout above the overhead trendline and continue its up move
as we head into 2015.

BSE Healthcare Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE Healthcare Index (14385)

The Healthcare index continues to inch northwards


in a well structured rising channel on long term
horizon. Index is expected to lend support to
benchmarks during intermediate corrective phases

The long term price chart of BSE Healthcare index reflects a secular uptrend.
The entire up move since 2009 till date has occurred in a well defined rising
channel which highlights the inherent strength in the trend as the healthcare
space attracts consistent buying support at elevated levels
After amassing over 45% gains in 2014, the index is expected to consolidate
the gains while maintaining a positive bias in the coming year. The overall
price structure remains positive and the healthcare index is expected to lend
support to the benchmarks during intermediate corrective phases in the
market

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

21

Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE IT Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE IT Index (10357)


The sector underperformed benchmarks during 2014, as it underwent
consolidation during the first six months after the stupendous rally during
2013. The longer time interval chart, however, continues to reveal the bullish
price structure. While a medium-term consolidation may not be ruled out,
declines remain a buying opportunity.
While cyclicals remain the flavour, we expect the IT index to remain in a
rising trajectory and remain market performer during 2015

BSE Oil & Gas Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE Oil & Gas Index (9842)


The burst of bullish momentum during the first half of the year lifted the
index to challenge its 2010 peak. However, the index remain a laggard as
frontline stocks like ONGC and Reliance surrendered most of the gains.
Structurally, the index has shown early signs of resumption of bull market.
However, it may spend a few more quarters in consolidation before the next
up leg. Therefore, a buying on decline strategy is preferred
Oil marketing companies and lubricant oil stocks remain preferred bets from
a technical perspective

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

22

Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE Metal Quarterly Bar Chart

BSE Metal Index (10430)


The sector remains within a larger consolidation post 2008 and continues to
lag benchmarks by a wide margin.
The larger consolidation since 2008 is seen taking a pictorial shape of a
contracting triangle. We expect the current consolidation to mature over the
next three to four quarters before the next leg of the bull trend pans out.

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

23

US
Dollar
Index
Greenback wakes up from seven year slumber
Deal
Team
At(89.2)
Your: Service
US Dollar Monthly Bar Chart
The year 2014 draws to an end after witnessing huge currency moves
triggered by the forward guidance of the US Federal Reserve about
interest rates. As a result, major global currencies like euro and Yen hard
landed while the US Dollar Index rose from a multi-year slumber
50% retracement of 20022008 decline @ 96

Sharp advance off May lows (79.90) steered the US Dollar Index past
2012-13 highs of 84.75 to fresh five year highs triggering a bull trend. The
sharp rally is primarily contributed by weakness in euro and Yen, which
contributes around 83% of weightage in the US dollar index. In the
process, the index resolved past a multiyear consolidation

March 2009
89.62

84.75
While in the medium-term, the index appears to have stretched to
overbought territory, the price structure points towards a further rally
going into 2015. The 50% retracement of the 2002-08 decline (120-71)
and value of the declining trend line drawn off 1985 and 2002 peaks
projects upside target of 96 for the US dollar index over the next year

79.90

The monthly MACD indicator, which has emerged above its signal line
provides insight about the strong underlying momentum in the US dollar

71

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

24

Gold
($1197):
BearService
cycle extended
DealSpot
Team
At Your
Gold Yearly Bar Chart
The positive economic data out of the US and prospects of higher US
interest rates from next year pushed the dollar to a four-year high against
the euro, keeping the precious metals complex close to multi-year lows as
investors showed better risk appetite and stayed away from the traditional
safe-haven commodity
Among the precious metal complex, the sharp decline in prices of gold
since mid-2014 led yellow metal prices to fresh four year lows. The
violation of yearly lows of 2013 ($1180) signals a shift of trend from
sideways to negative and opens up further lower avenues for prices
towards $1000 levels over a medium-term horizon

Breach of long term rising trendline during


2013 signaled a major trend reversal.
Bullion prices reacted lower after testing
the breakdown area in 2014 signaling
continuation of downtrend

After the sharp decline during 2013, bullion prices remained in


consolidation mode throughout 2014 and oscillated in the broad range of
$1180-1390. The floor of this consolidation rested upon the yearly low of
2013 at $1180. Despite several attempts during the first half of 2014, gold
prices failed to rise above $1400 suggesting consistent overhead pressure

Gold Monthly Bar Chart


13-month EMA

We believe the breach of the 2013 low signals resumption of the


preceding downtrend. Following the breakdown, we expect gold prices to
remain in a downward trajectory and head towards $1000 over a mediumterm horizon
Monthly declining MACD has settled in a negative zone and continues to
trend lower suggesting underlying negative momentum in prices from a
medium-term perspective

Gold prices breached 2013 low to signal resumption of


the preceding downtrend. We expect bullion to correct
toward $1000 in the coming year

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

25

Brent
Consolidation
Deal Crude
Team ($59.6):
At Your
Service to pan out after 2014 debacle
Brent Crude Quarterly Bar Chart

Global commodity prices have been on a slippery path since June 2014.
The safe haven demand for the US dollar amid an uncertain global
economic environment propelled the Dollar Index to a five-year high. As a
result, dollar denominated commodities have remained in the line of fire.
Factors like US independence in the energy sector and slowing growth in
China and Europe added to the supply glut in crude oil prices

147

128
Breach of four year lows triggered
panic sell off in Crude prices

After trading in a miniscule range of | 100-120 for 14 quarters, crude


prices broke loose as they breached the lower band of the four year
trading range. Resultant panic selling led prices to lowest levels since 2009
triggering major bear cycle for black gold since the 2008 crisis
After the stupendous fall in the past couple of months prices are expected
to stabilise near the $52-55 zone, which is a combination of key rising long
term trend line (blue) and 80% retracement of the 2009-10 rally (36-128)
However, given a weak long term price structure for Brent crude, upsides
remain capped to $75 being the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 decline

36

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

26

80% retracement
and long term
trendline at $ 54

Strategy
2014 Stock
Performance
Deal Team
At Your
Service
Rec. Date

Stock Recommended

Rec Price

Target

Stoploss

Jan-14

JB Chemical

120.00

170.00

97.00

170.00

42.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

Kesoram Ind

68.00

95.00

51.00

95.00

40.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

CMC

1510.00

1940.00

1290.00

1940.00

28.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

Ipca Lab

700.00

890.00

595.00

890.00

27.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

Bosch

9600.00

12350.00

8000.00

12350.00

28.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

Cummins India

458.00

575.00

380.00

575.00

26.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

Colgate

1282.00

1585.00

1140.00

1585.00

24.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

Tata Motors

368.00

440.00

315.00

431.00

19.0

Target Achieved

Jan-14

TCS

2090.00

2500.00

1860.00

2340.00

12.0

Book profit at 2340

Jan-14

Tata Global

145.00

225.00

115.00

148.00

2.00

Closed at cost

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

27

Exit Price

% Profit/Loss Comment

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or
securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
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brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is Indias largest private sector
bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture
capital fund management, etc. (associates), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India.
We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our
Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from
maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and
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regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in
certain other circumstances .
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been
made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used
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changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason.

Disclaimer
ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before
investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been
mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding
twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment
banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI
Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in
connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of
interest at the time of publication of this report.
It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not
received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
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