Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Research Analyst:
Dharmesh Shah
dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
Pabitro Mukherjee
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
Dipesh Dagha
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
Riding
the bull
zealService
to zenith
Deal Team
with
At Your
BSE Sensex Monthly Bar Chart
2008
2010
2013
21206
21108
21483
We do not foresee any major shift in the current directional positive bias.
However, any sizable correction towards 25000/7400 (Sensex/Nifty)
should be used as an attractive incremental opportunity to buy for the
long term
Multi-fold
rally
followed
by multi-year consolidation, perfect recipe for bull market
Deal Team
At
Your Service
BSE Sensex Quarterly Bar Chart
Historically, the multi-year bull runs are followed by multi-year
consolidation as markets enter a reconciliation phase. As the consolidation
matures with the passage of time and price correction, the market will
pierce new highs above the previous bull cycle peak to signal continuance
of the secular uptrend
2008
In the context of our markets, there is also one historical precedence of a
multi-fold rally followed by a multi-year consolidation, which adds
credence to the current secular bull market setup. Between 1989 and
1992, the Sensex witnessed an 11-fold rally from 390 to 4546. This was
followed by a 11 year consolidation phase as the index gyrated in a range
from 1992 to 2003. The breakout from this elongated consolidation paved
way for the multi-fold rally from 2003 to 2007
The Sensex witnessed a seven fold rally between 2003 and 2007 (2900 to
21206) and, thereafter, entered a consolidation phase lasting seven years
from 2008 to early 2014. The resolution past the 2008 bull cycle peak,
therefore, has the underpinnings of a burgeoning bull market, which can
lead to unfolding of multi-fold gains over the coming years
2003
11 Fold rally
between 1989-1992
1989
11 year consolidation
1992 to 2003
Headroom
forcurrent
run to extend to 35000/10500
Deal Team
At Yourbull
Service
The breakout from the Ascending Triangle pattern comprising entire seven year consolidation since 2008 till early 2014 has major bullish implications as it
signals the end of elongated correction phase and start of a new uptrend. The minimum measuring implication of the price pattern i.e. the width of the triangles
base (21206 7697=13509) added to the breakout point of 21206 projects an upside potential up to 35000 /10500 (Sensex/Nifty) for the current rally over 2015
The entire up move since 2012 has occurred in a rising channel originating from 2009 lows as highlighted in the adjoining yearly chart. Over the past three
years, the index has respected the upper and lower bands of this long term channel. The past two years lows are resting upon the lower band of this channel
while 2014 high is also placed at the upper band of this channel. The upper band of this channel for 2015 is placed at 35000 levels, making this a likely target
BSE Sensex Monthly Bar Chart
2008 high
21206
2010 high
21108
2013 high
21483
Conversely,
is strong base; act bravely if it materialises
Deal Team 25000/7400
At Your Service
Long term investors should note that secular bull markets also go through phases of secondary corrections, which is a healthy phenomenon to work off the
excesses developed during rallies. Even during the secular bull run from 2003 to 2008 the index was subject to intermediate corrections ranging from 13% to
30%. However, these counter trend corrections did not alter the overall bullish fabric of the market. We have identified a crucial support zone where demand
will outstrip supply to help investors ride the uptrend and also provide a fresh entry opportunity for those who have missed the earlier rally.
The long term trendline connecting yearly lows of 2003 and 2009 acted as a cushion during 2013 and 2014 as the respective yearly lows rest upon the same.
The value of this trendline for 2015 is at 22300 /7000, which will remain a major base for the index. We believe any corrective decline towards 25000 / 7400
should be used as a long term buying opportunity. Placement of 52 week EMA, the base formed post election results and 38.2% retracement of 2013-14 rally
all coinciding around at 25000/7400, reiterates our view point that any declines towards these levels should be bought into.
BSE Sensex Yearly Candlestick Chart
Broader
markets:
up for relatively strong performance
Deal Team
At Brace
Your Service
The broader markets are at the cusp, led by a major turnaround in the BSE midcap index, as it has steered past its 2008 high (10245) while the small cap index
has also strengthened above its 2010 high (11366). A look back at the behaviour of the benchmark Sensex after its breakout above 2008 highs provides a strong
roadmap for the broader markets, going forward. The Sensex entered a strong bull trend after conquering its 2008 high (21206) in April 2014 and has already
rallied 35% above its 2008 peak. We believe the BSE midcap index is all set to follow suit with the benchmarks and enter a strong uptrend as we head into 2015.
A similar magnitude of rally replicated on the BSE midcap index (minimum implication) would project upsides towards 14000 over the medium term
2008
2010
2013
BSE Sensex
Midcap index
The Sensex got catapulted into a higher orbit after confirming a resolute breakout
past its 2008-10 highs during early 2014 and has already rallied 35% above its
2008 peak. The Midcap Index is following in the footsteps of the benchmark and
has just risen above its 2008 peak signaling a major trend reversal. A similar
magnitude of up move in the midcap index is on the cards moving into 2015
Top
the Service
Bottom up way
DealPicks:
TeamGoing
Atup
Your
Moving away from the conventional method of stock selection, we have
adopted a more statistical and rationale bottom up approach in our stock
selection process
We have developed a statistical model comprising four major parameters,
which are the embedded characteristics of an outperformer. The four
major parameters included in the statistical model focus on assessment of
price structure, trend gauging parameters, momentum and investor
participation (trading volume), which form the four key tenets defining a
structural uptrend
Top Picks
9
In the first step, we ran the model on the entire gamut of NSE cash stocks
(1450 stocks) filtering the stocks with criteria ranging from fulfilling at
least one and up to all four parameters.
Technically
Strong stocks meeting
3 or all 4 parameters
(44 stocks)
Sectoral segregation
The number of stocks from the NSE cash universe fulfilling at least one
parameter filtered down the list to 410 stocks. Moving up the ladder, we
shifted focus to the set of stocks, which fulfilled at least 75% of the criteria
i.e. meeting three or all four parameters that further narrowed down the
list to 44 stocks. These short-listed 44 stocks represent an established
uptrend and carry the characteristics of strong outperformance on the
long term time frame (List appended in following pages)
Top
a bottom
up approach
DealPicks:
TeamTaking
At Your
Service
Sector / Scrip Name
3 month
Price
Structure
Trend
Analyser
Momentum
Investor
participation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Auto Anicllary
Apollo Tyres
Asahi India Glas
Banco Products
Bosch
Eicher Motors
Exide Inds.
Federal-Mogul Go
Motherson Sumi
Munjal Showa
Shivam Autotech
14.2
13.5
2.1
27.8
22.4
-2.4
28.3
-0.5
0.0
6.2
12.8
56.2
61.9
60.3
93.8
17.7
57.8
31.1
47.7
81.2
163.6
153.0
175.9
114.8
189.3
46.6
89.4
114.5
188.7
140.0
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Capital goods
AIA Engg.
Alstom India
BHEL
Cummins India
Esab India
Larsen & Toubro
SKF India
Thermax
8.1
11.4
14.5
23.6
-0.2
-2.2
11.5
14.5
32.7
12.6
2.6
31.8
-6.3
-10.1
25.1
3.1
121.7
54.2
59.6
102.5
45.4
40.2
88.1
40.6
Cement
19 Heidelberg Cem.
20 The Ramco Cement
21 UltraTech Cem.
-0.5
-5.6
-2.3
17.4
5.2
-9.1
104.7
77.3
40.6
BFSI
Bank of Baroda
HDFC Bank
Indian Bank
Punjab Natl.Bank
Union Bank (I)
GIC Housing Fin
9.3
8.9
18.9
11.3
0.2
9.4
18.7
10.3
9.1
13.2
-7.2
17.1
53.5
35.6
78.8
89.5
78.9
86.6
22
23
24
25
26
27
Remark
Statistical data mining hands out numero uno position to
auto ancilliary pack as it presents the most broad based
performance. While some of the stocks from the space
have enjoyed multi-fold returns already, few others are on
the cusp of breaking into a higher trajectory and stand tall
on the grounds of an improving price structure,
sustainabile trend and growing investor appetite
Top
a bottom
up approach
DealPicks:
TeamTaking
At Your
Service
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
63.9
79.0
24.7
20.6
22.4
41.3
-17.4
-6.9
254.5
327.5
46.5
58.1
84.6
148.8
16.7
46.3
432.8
557.8
198.0
64.2
98.7
313.6
104.0
71.4
IT
36 Info Edg.(India)
37 Sonata Software
-1.9
4.2
15.5
81.1
87.6
287.1
Pharma
38 Cipla
39 Indoco Remedies
0.6
1.2
50.7
81.8
65.3
153.9
PSU
40 Bharat Electron
41 Container Corpn.
42 H P C L
27.0
0.7
17.5
44.9
9.5
35.7
161.9
76.0
157.8
Others
43 Indian Hotels
44 Tata Chemicals
17.9
6.1
11.5
27.6
97.5
55.6
Bhel:
breakout triggers resumption of uptrend
Deal Long
Teamterm
Attrendline
Your Service
CMP: | 258.00
Target: | 320.00
Monthly Bar Chart
The share price of Bhel reversed its prolonged downtrend of nearly four
years by resolving past the most dominant falling trend line in place since
October 2010 in the first quarter of 2014
274
The corrective decline unfolding since May 2014 high of | 291 saw the
stock retrace its preceding major up move from| 100 to | 291 by 50% at
October 2014 low of | 195. The presence of the medium-term rising
trendline around | 195 levels attracted fresh demand for the stock and led
to a higher bottom formation on larger degree charts highlighting
strength in the underlying trend
50% @ 200
The V shaped recovery led to the faster
retracement of the last major falling segment
signalling revival of bullish momentum
The stock is well poised to embark upon its next major up move after
confirming a higher bottom at | 195. We expect the stock to head towards
| 325 levels over the medium term horizon, thus providing a favourable
reward/risk set-up to ride the up move in 2015. The 50% retracement of
the entire 2010 to 2013 decline is placed at | 325 levels, which also
coincides with the yearly high of 2012
100
The long term monthly MACD oscillator is in a rising trajectory and has
just ventured into the positive territory above its trigger line, thus
supporting the overall positive trend in price
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 17, 2014 at 14:10 hrs
Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA
10
| 60652 crore
2
226 / 250
Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA
| 490 crore
291.5 /145.55
156.00
Bharat
Electronics
(BHAELE):
Breakout past multi-year highs
Deal Team
At Your
Service
CMP: | 2786.00
Target: | 3650.00
1701
We expect the stock to ride the new found momentum into 2015 as well
and remain on course towards target of | 3650. The measuring
implication of the multi-year range breakout, i.e. the magnitude of 201014 decline (| 2251 to | 893) projected from the breakout point of | 2251
opens upsides towards | 3650 levels on a larger time frame. This also
coincides with the 138.2% extension of the February-July rally (| 893 to
| 2318) measured from the August 2014 low of | 1701 projecting upside
towards the | 3650 region
893
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 09:36 hrs
Market Capitalisation
| 21220 crore Equity capital
| 80 crore
Face value
10
52 weeks H/L
3140.75/893
200/50 days EMA
1883 /2388
52 weeks EMA
1821.00
11
Alstom
India (ABBALS):
Thrusting out of contracting range
Deal Team
At Your Service
CMP: | 577.00
Target: | 770.00
The stock witnessed a major base formation at the lower band of this
contracting range for over two years from January 2012 to April 2014
before finally lifting off to challenge the overhead trendline in November
2014. The two year consolidation at the support trendline drawn off the
2006 and 2008 lows signalled steady accumulation by stronger hands at
an important price juncture. The resolution past the overhead falling trend
line confirms the shift of larger degree trend in favour of bulls and augurs
well for the stock, going forward
276
Base formation at long term
support trendline for over 2 years
indicated accumulation by stronger
hands
210
The entire up move since April 2014 has garnered increased participation
as monthly volumes have consistently shot up over 2x the 12 month
average of 12 lakh shares. Volume expansion in the direction of prices is a
healthy sign indicating larger participation in the uptrend
182
Going forward, the stock is set to enter a sustainable uptrend and retrace
its 2010-13 decline (| 899 to | 275) by at least 80%, thereby providing
upsides towards | 770 over a medium-term horizon
RSI in up trend validates positive trend in price
The monthly RSI has emerged above its four year consolidation band and
is in a rising trajectory above the bullish reading of 60 signalling
continuation of positive momentum over a medium-term horizon
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 09:38 hrs
Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA
12
| 3812 crore
10
330 /411
Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA
| 67 crore
644.5/301.5
317.00
Exide
a new bull phase
Deal (EXIIND):
Team AtEntering
Your Service
CMP: | 166.00
Target: | 235.00
The auto ancillary space was the toast of the Street in 2014. Investors
who lapped up auto ancillary stocks were rewarded handsomely as many
stocks produced multi-fold gains and are still going strong. Exide
Industries is one of the late movers from the auto ancillary space as the
stock began picking up steam towards the second half of 2014. The share
price resolved to fresh life-time highs during September 2014, thereby
signalling the end of four years of consolidation and the start of a new bull
trend
175
Structurally, the entire horizontal price action since November 2010 in the
price band of | 175-105 panned out precisely above the 50% retracement
of its 2009-10 upsurge (| 34-175) highlighting accumulation at lower
levels. While the rally during 2009-10 panned out over 18 months, the 48
month corrective phase from late 2010 to mid 2014 could retrace the
preceding rally by only 50% price wise. Elongated time correction and
limited price correction form the key feature of a positive price structure
from a long term perspective
Post the recent resolve above its 2010 peak (| 179) we expect the stock to
enter a sustainable uptrend in the coming year and head towards | 245
being the measuring implication of the four trading range (| 175-105=70
points) projected above 2010 highs of | 175
34
The trading volumes during the price breakout above life-time highs and
in follow up over past few weeks have remained above their 24-month
average (3.5 crore shares) suggesting growing appetite to own the stock
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 10:54 hrs
Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA
13
| 14174 crore
1
149 /165
Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA
| 85 crore
183.4/99
147.00
Federal-Mogul
Goetze
Deal Team At
Your(GOEIND):
Service Long term Rounding breakout
CMP: | 377.00
Target: | 520.00
The revival of investor sentiment during the last year has seen the midcap
index register a breakout past its 2008 peak after a seven year gap. This
multi-year breakout has seen many stocks from the midcap and small cap
universe rise from long periods of hibernation. The share price of Federal
Mogul Goetze, an auto parts and equipment maker, is at the cusp of
moving out of a seven year consolidation pattern and provides a good
entry opportunity to ride the long term shift of price momentum
2006
|452
138.2% @ 550
Neckline @ 450
335
The entire price action since January 2007 till date represents a seven
year long Rounding pattern as highlighted in the adjoining monthly chart.
The strong surge in price momentum since May 2014 saw the stock post
a faster retracement of its last down leg as it recouped a 26 month decline
from February 2012 to April 2014 in just seven months signalling strong
bullish momentum. The stock tested the neckline of the major rounding
pattern placed around | 350 in November 2014. The cool-off in broader
markets over past few weeks has seen the stock consolidate just below
the neckline
174
We believe the stock is set to breakout past the seven year rounding
pattern and embark upon its next major up-leg in the coming years and,
therefore, presents a strong case for long term investment. We expect the
current rally off 2014 low of | 174 to move towards 138.2% extension of
the 2009-12 rally (| 27 to | 335) placed around | 550 levels
27
Long term monthly MACD generated a buy signal above its trigger line
validating the positive price trend
14
| 2114 crore
10
282 /361
Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA
| 56 crore
449.4/174
274.00
Asahi
India (ASAIND):
Deal Team
At YourStructural
Service Bull in place.
CMP: | 115.00
Target: | 168.00
The strong upsurge in 2014 has signalled a long term reversal of fortunes
for the price structure of Asahi India Glass. The combination of faster
retracement of last major down leg (2010-13), yearly volumes scaling past
seven-year average (2 crore shares) and resultant breakout from seven
year long bullish consolidation pattern signals end of an elongated seven
year corrective phase and beginning of structural bull market
After the multi-fold rally between 2002 and 2007 (| 9 to | 142), the stock
entered a corrective phase and oscillated between the broad range of
| 120 and | 30 levels over the last seven years from 2008 till recently. The
stock retraced its 2002-07 rally by 80% at | 35 levels and formed a Bullish
double bottom precisely at the crucial retracement support. The yearly
lows of 2008 and 2013 are placed precisely near the 80% retracement of
the major bull run
80% @ 35
Stock formed a bullish Double bottom at 80% retracement of
2002-2007 rally and registered a strong breakout in
November 2014 to signal resumption of long term uptrend
The current rally during 2014 has seen the stock completely overhaul its
preceding decline, which consumed 11 quarters between 2010 and 2013
in just four quarters, which highlighting resumption of strong positive
momentum. In the process, the stock registered a breakout past the
neckline of the Bullish double bottom formation to signal the end of seven
years of a corrective trend and start of a fresh long term uptrend. We
expect the share price to continue its long term up trend in coming years
and head towards | 170 being measuring implication of the consolidation
range (| 100-30=70 points) as projected above 2011 peak of | 100
The strong momentum is also visible from quarterly RSI, which has
emerged above the reading of 60 for the first time since 2008 underlining
strong momentum from a medium-term perspective
*Call has been initiated in i-Click to Gain on December 17, 2014 at 14:18 hrs
Market Capitalisation
| 2799 crore Equity capital
| 24 crore
Face value
1
52 weeks H/L
135.7/40.15
200/50 days EMA
92 / 117
52 weeks EMA
88.00
15
Ramco
Cement
(MADCEM):
Long term Cup & Handle breakout
Deal Team
At
Your Service
CMP: | 301.00
Target: | 420.00
A look at the long term price chart reveals that the entire price movement
since 2007 till mid-2014 took the pictorial shape of a well defined Cup &
Handle pattern as highlighted in the adjoining chart. A Cup & Handle is a
bullish reversal pattern having positive implication on the price front upon
resolution above the neckline of the pattern
Neckline @ 280
253
The stock scaled past the neckline formed by joining the yearly highs of
2007 (| 253) and 2013 (| 273) in June 2014 to signal a long term trend
reversal and start of a fresh bull trend. The breakout rally saw the stock
rally to a new life high of | 380 in November 2014. The recent look back in
prices to re-test the major breakout area provides a good investment
opportunity to ride the expected uptrend in the coming year
135
The minimum measuring implication of the price pattern i.e. the distance
between the neckline and the base of handle (| 280 135 = 145 points)
added to the neckline projects upside towards | 425 levels for the current
up move
16
| 7259 crore
1
286 / 326
Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA
| 24 crore
380 /156.20
277.00
GIC
DealHousing
Team (GICHOU):
At Your Resolve
Servicepast three year consolidation.
CMP: | 180.00
Target: | 250.00
Quarterly Bar Chart
The stock has emerged out of a three year consolidation in 2014 to mark
an end of the secondary correction and resumption of the long term up
trend. The resolve past three years consolidation has set the tone for
continuation of price momentum into the coming year, thus offering a
decent investment opportunity
The long term price chart of GIC Housing represents a well established
uptrend as the stock moves northwards in a rising peaks and troughs
manner while respecting its long term trendline originating way back
since 2001. The corrective decline during 2011 got arrested at the 61.8%
retracement of the 2009-10 rally (| 23-136) placed around | 60, which was
in close proximity to the long term trend line
147
77
61.8% @ 60
23
While the 2009-10 rally was swift and took only seven quarters to pan out,
the subsequent correction consumed double time (14 quarters) before
resolving past the 2010 peak. Such price/time behaviour is the hallmark of
a structural uptrend and augurs well for the stock, going forward
Volumes at the time of breakout from three year consolidation has been
above its 10 quarter average indicating larger participation in trend
The current bullish momentum is expected to pan out over next several
quarters offering a decent opportunity to ride the expected uptrend. We
expect the stock to travel towards | 255 being the 161.8% extension of
the 2012-13 up leg (60-147) as projected from 2013 lows of | 77
Quarterly MACD is seen diverging from its 9
period average suggesting strong momentum
Market Capitalisation
Face value
200/50 days EMA
17
| 970 crore
10
154 / 177
Equity capital
52 weeks H/L
52 weeks EMA
| 54 crore
199.4 /92.85
149.00
Nilkamal
(NILPLA):
Dawn
of a new uptrend.
Deal Team
At Your
Service
CMP: | 473.00
Target: | 660.00
The share price of Nilkamal resolved above its 2007 and 2010 peaks
(~| 405) during December 2014 to signal a major turnaround on larger
degree price charts. The overcoming of a multi-year supply barrier above
| 405 by the share price signals a structural shift in favour of bulls and has
larger positive implications for the stock, going forward
2007
385
The first major indication of bulls regaining control of the larger trend is
reflected in the velocity of the current up move from late 2013 till date.
The stock completely overhauled its preceding 12 quarter decline (201013) in just five quarters suggesting a faster pace of retracement and
reaffirmed a bullish price structure
95
The swing lows of 2013 got anchored at the key long term trend line
running through 2001 and 2009 lows maintaining rising peak and trough
formation on longer time interval charts. The breakout into new life-time
highs during the current month provides the Dow Theory confirmation of
a long term bull trend
37
Magnitude of the current rally during 2013-14 has already achieved parity
with the 2009-10 bull run. Going forward, we expect the rally to extend
towards 138.2% extension of 2009-10 rally (| 37-405) as projected from
March 2014 lows of | 134 providing a target of | 660
Call has been initiated on i-Click to Gain on December 18, 2014 at 12:25 hrs
Market Capitalisation
| 662 crore
Equity capital
Face value
10
52 weeks H/L
200/50 days EMA
314 /389
52 weeks EMA
18
| 15 crore
505.8/134
301.00
Bank
to zenith
Deal Nifty:
TeamCommander
At Your Service
CNX Bank Nifty Monthly Bar Chart
The Bank Nifty emerged out of its four year consolidation by steering past
the yearly highs of 2010 and 2013 towards mid-2014. The strong
resolution past the four year consolidation band above 13300 has flagged
off a strong bull run, which will continue to propel the sectoral
heavyweight Bank Nifty in the forthcoming year as well
We expect the Bank Nifty to continue its northward journey in 2015 and
travel towards 24000 levels. The current rally off 2013 low of 8349 to
recent all time high of 18929 has already surpassed the magnitude of
2009-2010 rally which measured around 10000 points. The faster pace and
larger magnitude of current move as compared to the preceding rally
clearly signals an extending market which has significant steam left to
continue its rally in similar fashion. The next logical price objective in an
extending markets is derived by plotting the Fibonacci price extension.
The 161.8% Fibonacci price extension of 2009-2010 rally (3290 to 13320)
measured from 2013 low of 8349 projects the next destination for current
rally towards 24000 levels over the coming year
2010
13320
From a structural point of view, the long term price chart of the Bank Nifty
exhibits a strong underlying trend. Post the 2008 market wide deluge, the
Bank Nifty was one of the first heavyweight index to surpass its 2008 peak
(10806) in 2010 itself
2013
13348
Support zone
38.2% @ 14900
2008
10806
After a three fold rally during 2009-10 the index went into hibernation
mode and consolidated between the broad range of 13300 and 7800 over
the next four years between 2010 and mid-2014. Price wise, the index
retraced its 2009-10 rally by just 50% while time wise correction extended
to 200% of the preceding rally. Elongated time correction with limited
price decline highlights the inherent strength in the trend. The index
formed a double bottom precisely near the 50% retracement of 2009-10
rally (8000) and registered a strong breakout in 2014 to signal the end of
the four year basing pattern and continuance of the larger uptrend
8349
3 Fold rally between
2009-2010
2009
3290
The major support base for the index is placed around 15000 being the
confluence of the 38.2% retracement of the 2013-14 rally and intermediate
base formed during six month consolidation during June-October 2014
Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
19
Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE Auto Quarterly Bar Chart
13-quarter EMA
20
Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE PSU Quarterly Bar Chart
The long term price chart of BSE Healthcare index reflects a secular uptrend.
The entire up move since 2009 till date has occurred in a well defined rising
channel which highlights the inherent strength in the trend as the healthcare
space attracts consistent buying support at elevated levels
After amassing over 45% gains in 2014, the index is expected to consolidate
the gains while maintaining a positive bias in the coming year. The overall
price structure remains positive and the healthcare index is expected to lend
support to the benchmarks during intermediate corrective phases in the
market
21
Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE IT Quarterly Bar Chart
22
Sectoral
Indices:
through technical charts
Deal Team
At Glance
Your Service
BSE Metal Quarterly Bar Chart
23
US
Dollar
Index
Greenback wakes up from seven year slumber
Deal
Team
At(89.2)
Your: Service
US Dollar Monthly Bar Chart
The year 2014 draws to an end after witnessing huge currency moves
triggered by the forward guidance of the US Federal Reserve about
interest rates. As a result, major global currencies like euro and Yen hard
landed while the US Dollar Index rose from a multi-year slumber
50% retracement of 20022008 decline @ 96
Sharp advance off May lows (79.90) steered the US Dollar Index past
2012-13 highs of 84.75 to fresh five year highs triggering a bull trend. The
sharp rally is primarily contributed by weakness in euro and Yen, which
contributes around 83% of weightage in the US dollar index. In the
process, the index resolved past a multiyear consolidation
March 2009
89.62
84.75
While in the medium-term, the index appears to have stretched to
overbought territory, the price structure points towards a further rally
going into 2015. The 50% retracement of the 2002-08 decline (120-71)
and value of the declining trend line drawn off 1985 and 2002 peaks
projects upside target of 96 for the US dollar index over the next year
79.90
The monthly MACD indicator, which has emerged above its signal line
provides insight about the strong underlying momentum in the US dollar
71
24
Gold
($1197):
BearService
cycle extended
DealSpot
Team
At Your
Gold Yearly Bar Chart
The positive economic data out of the US and prospects of higher US
interest rates from next year pushed the dollar to a four-year high against
the euro, keeping the precious metals complex close to multi-year lows as
investors showed better risk appetite and stayed away from the traditional
safe-haven commodity
Among the precious metal complex, the sharp decline in prices of gold
since mid-2014 led yellow metal prices to fresh four year lows. The
violation of yearly lows of 2013 ($1180) signals a shift of trend from
sideways to negative and opens up further lower avenues for prices
towards $1000 levels over a medium-term horizon
25
Brent
Consolidation
Deal Crude
Team ($59.6):
At Your
Service to pan out after 2014 debacle
Brent Crude Quarterly Bar Chart
Global commodity prices have been on a slippery path since June 2014.
The safe haven demand for the US dollar amid an uncertain global
economic environment propelled the Dollar Index to a five-year high. As a
result, dollar denominated commodities have remained in the line of fire.
Factors like US independence in the energy sector and slowing growth in
China and Europe added to the supply glut in crude oil prices
147
128
Breach of four year lows triggered
panic sell off in Crude prices
36
26
80% retracement
and long term
trendline at $ 54
Strategy
2014 Stock
Performance
Deal Team
At Your
Service
Rec. Date
Stock Recommended
Rec Price
Target
Stoploss
Jan-14
JB Chemical
120.00
170.00
97.00
170.00
42.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
Kesoram Ind
68.00
95.00
51.00
95.00
40.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
CMC
1510.00
1940.00
1290.00
1940.00
28.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
Ipca Lab
700.00
890.00
595.00
890.00
27.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
Bosch
9600.00
12350.00
8000.00
12350.00
28.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
Cummins India
458.00
575.00
380.00
575.00
26.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
Colgate
1282.00
1585.00
1140.00
1585.00
24.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
Tata Motors
368.00
440.00
315.00
431.00
19.0
Target Achieved
Jan-14
TCS
2090.00
2500.00
1860.00
2340.00
12.0
Jan-14
Tata Global
145.00
225.00
115.00
148.00
2.00
Closed at cost
27
Exit Price
% Profit/Loss Comment
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or
securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock
brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is Indias largest private sector
bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture
capital fund management, etc. (associates), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India.
We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our
Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from
maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and
information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI
Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or
keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Nonrated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in
certain other circumstances .
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been
made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used
or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though
disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat
recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a
representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions
expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by
any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of
changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason.
Disclaimer
ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before
investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been
mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding
twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment
banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI
Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in
connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of
interest at the time of publication of this report.
It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not
received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in
the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership
in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.