BSST ASSIGNMENT

A Statistical Analysis of Indian Film Industry

By GROUP AC2
Ankit Kumar Baranwal (14F506)
Ashish Girdhar Gyanchandani (14F513)
Charu Pandey (14F516)
Natesh Bhardwaj HS (14F535)
Surya Bakshi (14F550)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 3
An Overview of Bollywood Industry................................................................................................................... 3
Data collection method....................................................................................................................................... 4
Data Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
Return of Investment (ROI) ............................................................................................................................ 5
Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 7
Casting ............................................................................................................................................................. 8
In context to the Indian market, is the Average Gross Collection of an actor equal to that of an actress?
........................................................................................................................................................................10
Budget ............................................................................................................................................................11
Budget to Worldwide Grossing ................................................................................................................11
Budget to IMDb ratings ............................................................................................................................12
Box - Office Verdict......................................................................................................................................12
Budget to Box Office Verdict ..................................................................................................................14
Box Office Verdict to Worldwide Grossing............................................................................................16
Box Office Verdict and Multi-star cast movies ......................................................................................17
IIFA Awards ..................................................................................................................................................19
Awards and Number of Stars casted in a movie .....................................................................................20
Genre ..............................................................................................................................................................21
Multi-starrer ...................................................................................................................................................23
Findings ..............................................................................................................................................................28
Recommendation ..............................................................................................................................................28
Utility ..................................................................................................................................................................29
References .........................................................................................................................................................29

Introduction

Mr. Hakuna Matata, an industrialist from Japan, was lured by the glitz and glamour of the Bollywood
industry. He had been producing several movies in different countries and has earned huge profits. He
was looking forward to do the same in India. Being a foreigner he was not aware of the Indian market and
wanted someone to help him to analyze what sort of movies do Indians like? What casts will be best
suited? What is the estimated budget required for a blockbuster film and what sort of returns could be
expected? With these objectives in mind he tried seeking help from the students of elite management
schools in India to do a small study for him. An enthusiastic team AC2 from T.A. Pai Management
Institute, Manipal took the initiative to help him out in this regard.

An Overview of Bollywood Industry

Bollywood, more formally referred to as Hindi cinema1, is the Hindi - language Indian film industry
based in Mumbai (Bombay), Maharashtra, India. It is not only one among the largest film producers in
India and but is also one of the largest centers of film production in the world. It is estimated by research
analyst that by the year 2016, its revenue will reach $4.5 billion. Bollywoods gross receipts have almost
tripled since 20042. In terms of the number of films produced each year, Bollywood is firmly on top of the
pile with 1,602 movies in the year 2012 alone while the China managed to produce only 745 movies in
that year, the U.S. could churn out a meager 476 films. In that very same year, Hollywood could sale only
$1.36 billion tickets compared to Bollywoods whopping $2.6 billion. However, having said that, Indian
films cannot match Hollywood in box office revenue. The U.S. based films grossed nearly $10.8 billion
in 2012 compared to Indias meager $1.6 billion.3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollywood
http://www.ibtimes.com/bollywood-100-how-big-indias-mammoth-film-industry-1236299
3
http://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2014/09/03/bollywood-indias-film-industry-by-the-numbersinfographic/
2

Data collection method

The data used in the research has solely represents the secondary data collected from websites namely,
Wikipedia.org. Also the websites www.imdb.com and www.iifa.com were checked to get the ratings and
data about the number of nominations and awards received by each movie. The samples were taken from
the past 2010-13 top Bollywood movies which generated the highest revenues. The data observed in the
analysis were as below:
1. Discrete Numeric Data
a. Year of Release
b. IMDB Rating
c. IIFA Nominations
d. IIFA Awards
2. Continuous Numeric Data4
a. Indian Grossing
b. Budget
c. Worldwide gross
3. Categorical Data
a. Movie name
b. Box Office Verdict
c. Lead Actor
d. Lead Actress
e. Multiple Star Presence
f.

Production/Distributor

g. Month of Release
h. Day of Release
With the help of the 15 set of variables the students tried analyzing several statistical aspects which could
help Mr. Matata to take a wise decision to invest in Bollywood movie making.

All the monetary values were observed in Rupees (in crores)

Data Analysis

Return of Investment (ROI)

The overall Mean Budget of highest grossing films for 2011, 2012 and 2013 were found to be 50.55
crores. Whereas, the overall Mean grossing of highest grossing films for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were
found to be 184.52 crores. The Ratio of Mean Grossing to Mean Budget stands at 4.26.
It can be inferred that in Bollywood if a movie makes it to the list of top 10 highest box office collections,
the Producer of the movie would approximately make 4 times the budget or the investment on the movie.
The Highest Grossing movie was Dhoom 3, starring Aamir Khan, with a mindboggling collection of Rs.
533 crores. It was considered to be one of the All Time Blockbuster movies.
Ranbir Kapoor starring Anjaana Anjaani released in 2011 collected about 76 crores and therefore it was
the lowest among the top grossing movies in last 4 years.
The movie with the highest ROI was Aashiqui 2 with a Budget to Gross income Ratio of 12.22 while
Ranbhir Kapoor starrer Rockstar was the movie with Lowest Budget to Gross income Ratio of 1.63.
Thus, a question may arise here. Is the Budget and ROI interrelated? If yes, what is the relation between
them?
The table below contains the Budget of a movie with its respective ratio of Return over Budget

Table 1: Budget of a movie with its respective ratio of Return over Budget

S L No

Budget (Rs. in crores)

Budget to Gross Ratio

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

150
75
115
45
80
30
60
9
35
40
75
45
45

3.55
5.65
3.26
6.87
2.53
4.20
2.70
12.22
2.94
2.55
4.25
5.58
4.89

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

60
62
50
30
30
70
40
65
40
125
75
20
55
19
30
60
25
42
40
45
60
38
28
30
43
28
8

3.52
3.31
3.72
5.83
5.00
1.79
4.38
3.54
4.60
1.92
2.75
7.00
2.78
6.16
3.67
1.63
3.68
5.11
4
4.02
2.38
5.26
3.35
2.8
1.76
3.57
11.87

Table 2: Correlation between Budget and Budget to gross ratio

Budget in crores
Budget to Gross Ratio

Budget
crores
1
-0.48021

in Budget
to
Gross Ratio
1

BUDGET TO GROSS RATI

14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

BUDGET IN CRORES

Budget to Gross Ratio

Linear (Budget to Gross Ratio)

Figure 1 : Graph showing Correlation between Budget in crores and Budget to Gross Ratio

The Correlation Coefficient between Budget and Budget to Gross Ratio is - 0.48. This implies a negative
Correlation between the two variables. Hence, an increase in budget will negatively affect the ROI on the
films.

Market
The major market for Bollywood movies is India. Mean grossing in India for the Top 10 Blockbusters for
the year 2010 to 2013 was 114 crores while the worldwide mean grossing was 184.52 crores.
This implies that around 61% of the Gross Income for the Blockbuster movies have come from Indian
market, whereas, a substantial 39% is from abroad. Thus, popular notion of limited foreign market for
Indian movies is been negated with this fact. Further, the trend is an encouragement to the producers of
the Indian films to promote their movies abroad.

Foreign Market
39 %
Domestic Market
61 %

Figure 2: Market Share of Bollywood Blockbuster

Casting
Another question that may be posed is that whether casting has an impact either on collection or success
of the movie?
Out of the 41 Top grossing movies that we took for our analysis, we selected Actors and Actress who
were cast in at least two of the highest grossing movies so that we could analyze the role of a Lead Actor /
Actress in making a movie Box-office success.

The performance of Lead Actors with two or more Box-Office success is given in the table below:
Table 3: Performance of Lead Actors with two or more Box-Office success

Lead Actor

Average Grossing in
India (Rs. in crores)

Average Budget
(Rs. in crores)

Average worldwide
Average ROI
grossing ( Rs. in
crores)
53.40
239.80
4.62

Salman Khan

165.80

Ajay Devgan

97.80

37.60

133.80

4.23

Akshay Kumar

102.50

42.00

171.75

4.05

Ranbhir Kapoor

103.00

47.60

160.20

3.70

Shahrukh Khan

129.80

74.60

256.20

3.82

Ranveer Singh

81.00

44.00

148.50

7.20

Aamir Khan

185.50

95.00

354.00

3.96

Hrithik Roshan

150.67

77.33

244.33

3.12

64.33

28.33

95.33

3.38

Imran Khan

From the table above, we find that Aamir Khan is the actor with the highest Average Grossing in India
and worldwide having an average grossing of Rs. 354 crores compared to the Industry average of Rs.
184.52 crores. While Imran Khans movies require minimum budget to be hit, the average budget of his
movies stood at Rs. 28.33 crores. However, the Average Budget of the Bollywood Industry stood at 50.55
crores. Ranveer Singh is the most bankable star with a return of 7.20 times the investment made on his
movie compared to the industry average of 4.26.
The performance of Lead Actress with two or more Box-Office success is given in the table below:
Table 4: Performance of Lead Actress with two or more Box-Office success

Lead Actress

Asin Thottumkal

Average Grossing
Average Budget
Average Worldwide
Average ROI
in India(Rs in
(Rs in Crores)
grossing (Rs in Crores)
crores)
116.00
53.33
165.00
3.37

Deepika Padukone

146.40

61.00

255.60

4.35

Priyanka Chopra

128.80

65.00

207.40

3.38

Sonam Kapoor

82.67

31.67

104.33

3.31

Kareena Kapoor

129.67

76.67

210.00

3.15

Katrina Kaif

129.00

65.43

224.14

3.39

Sonakshi Sinha

131.00

40.40

187.60

4.63

Deepika Padukone is the highest grossing actress both in Indian market and across the globe with an
average grossing of Rs. 255.60 crores compared to Industry average of Rs. 184.52 crores. While Sonam
Kapoor movies require minimum budget to be a Hit, the average budget of her movies stood at 31.67
crores. The average budget of the Bollywood Industry stood at Rs. 50.55 crores. Further, Sonakshi Sinha
is the most bankable star with a return of 4.63 times the investment made on her movie compared to the
industry average of 4.26.

In context to the Indian market, is the Average Gross Collection of an actor equal to that of
an actress?
As stated above, the actor and actress with highest average gross collection in Indian market are Aamir
Khan and Deepika Padukone. Are their Average Gross Collection equal? To find out this let us use the
Two-Sample Hypothesis Test
The Null Hypothesis (H0) and Alternate Hypothesis (H1) shall be as under:
H0: The Average Gross Collection of Deepika Padukone is equal to the Average Gross Collection of
Aamir Khan.
H1: The Average Gross Collection of Deepika Padukone is less than that of Aamir Khan.
Table 5: Average Gross Collection of Deepika Padukone and Aamir Khan

Average Gross Collection Deepika Padukone

Average Gross Collection Aamir Khan

(Variable 1)

(Variable 2)

190

280

130

91

98
226

Table 6: t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

Average

Gross

Collection

of Average Gross Collection of

Deepika Padukone

Aamir Khan

Mean

146.4

185.5

Variance

3352.3

17860.5

Observations

Pooled Variance

6253.94

Hypothesized Mean Difference

Df

t Stat

-0.590950198

P(T<=t) one-tail

0.290127214

t Critical one-tail

2.015048373

P(T<=t) two-tail

0.580254428

t Critical two-tail

2.570581836

The results of the two - sample test is shown above. The test statistic is -0.59, which fall into the rejection
region, so we reject the null hypothesis. In other words, at a confidence level of 95%, we fail to reject that
the Average Gross Collection of Deepika Padukone is less than the Average Gross Collection of Aamir
Khan.

Budget
Budget to Worldwide Grossing
Is the budget of a movie related to the success of a movie? Are Budget and Worldwide Grossing of a
movie correlated with each other?
The Table below gives Correlation between Budget and Worldwide Grossing
Table 7 : Correlation between Budget and worldwide grossing

Budget (Rs. in crore)

Budget (Rs. in crore)

Worldwide gross in crores

0.7527

Worldwide gross in crores

1

The Correlation Coefficient between budgets of a movie to its worldwide grossing is 0.75. This implies a
strong Positive Correlation between these two variables. Hence, it can be established that Budget and
Grossing are directly proportional.

WORLDWIDE GROSS IN CRORES

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

BUDGET IN CRORES
Worldwide gross in crores

Linear (Worldwide gross in crores)

Figure 3 : Graph showing linear correlation between Budget and Worldwide Grossing

Budget to IMDb ratings

Are the reviewers biased towards High Budget movies? We can check the correlation between the budget
of the movie and its critique rating.
The Table below gives the correlation between Budget and IMDb Ratings:
Budget (Rs. in crore)
Budget (Rs. in crore)

IMDb Rating

0.089188

IMDB Rating

The correlation between Budget and IMDb Ratings is very low. Therefore, we can infer that the film
critique ratings are not biased towards big budget movies.

Box - Office Verdict

Box-Office Verdict is classified into four categories All Time Blockbuster, Blockbuster, Super Hit and
Hit. The Box - Office verdict and its mean budget to gross ratio is given in the table below:
Table 8: Box Office verdict with their respective Mean Budget to Gross Ratio

Mean Budget to Gross Ratio

All Time Blockbuster

4.40

Blockbuster

4.95

Super Hit

4.59

Hit

3.62

Mean Budget to Gross Ratio

6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
All Time Blockbuster

Blockbuster

Super Hit

Hit

Figure 4: Graph of BO Verdict against Budget to Returns Ratio

The ROI of Blockbuster and Super Hit movie seems to be more when compared to All Time Blockbuster
and Hit movies. But their ROI seems to be almost equal. Let us test this Hypothesis using Two-Sample
Hypothesis Test.
The Null Hypothesis (H0) and Alternate Hypothesis (H1) shall be as under:
H0: The Average Budget to Gross Ratio of Super Hit movie is equal to the Average Budget to Gross
Ratio of Blockbuster
H1: The Average Budget to Gross Ratio of Super Hit movie is not equal to the Average Budget to
Gross Ratio of Blockbuster
Table 9 : Budget to Gross ratio of Box Office Verdicts

Super Hit

Blockbuster

6.87

4.20

2.53

4.25

2.94

5.58

4.89

3.54

3.31

4.60

3.72

7.00

5.83

6.16

2.78

4.00

2.38

5.26

3.36
11.88

Table 10 : t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

t - Test: Two Sample Assuming Equal Variances

Super Hit

Blockbuster

Mean

4.589135638

4.954514

Variance

7.893017729

1.277348

Observations

11

Pooled Variance

4.952720094

Hypothesized Mean Difference

df

18

t Stat

-0.365277933

P(T<=t) one-tail

0.359580436

t Critical one-tail

1.734063607

P(T<=t) two-tail

0.719160871

t Critical two-tail

2.10092204

The results of the two-sample test are shown above. The test statistic is 0.36, which does not fall into the
rejection region, so we fail to reject the null hypothesis of no difference between the means from the two
samples. In other words, at 95% confidence level, we fail to reject the hypothesis that Average Budget to
Gross Ratio of All Time Blockbuster is equal to the Average Budget to Gross Ratio of Blockbuster.
Budget to Box Office Verdict
Let us now analyze the relation between Budgets of a movie to Box Office verdict. Since the Budget to
Gross Ratio of All Time Blockbuster is equal to Blockbuster movies, so let us analyze them on basis of
budget required to produce them. Here, we have assumed that the variance of the two sets of samples is
assumed.
The Null Hypothesis (H0) and Alternate Hypothesis (H1) is as under:
H0: Is Average Budget of Super Hit movie is equal to the Average Budget of Blockbuster movies
H1: Is Average Budget of Super Hit movie is less than Average Budget of Blockbuster movies

Table 11: Budgets of All time Blockbuster and Blockbuster movies

Super Hit

Blockbuster

45

30

80

75

35

45

45

65

62

40

50

20

30

19

55

40

60

38

28
8

Table 12: t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming equal Variances

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

Super Hit

Blockbuster

Mean

45.27273

41.33333

Variance

384.6182

350.5

Observations

11

Pooled Variance

369.4545

Hypothesized Mean Difference

df

18

t Stat

0.455986

P(T<=t) one-tail

0.326927

t Critical one-tail

1.734064

P(T<=t) two-tail

0.653853

t Critical two-tail

2.100922

The results of the two-sample test are shown above. The test statistic is 0.45, which does not fall in the
rejection region, so we dont have enough data to reject the null hypothesis of Average Budget of Super
Hit movies is equal to the Average Budget of Blockbuster movies.
Box Office Verdict to Worldwide Grossing

Are worldwide grossing and Box Office verdict related? Let us analyze the relation between Box Office
Verdict and Worldwide Grossing. The table below contains the worldwide grossing of the respective Box
office verdict.
The Null Hypothesis (H0) and Alternate Hypothesis (H1) are as under:
H0: The Average Grossing of Super Hit is equal to the Average Grossing of Blockbuster movies
H1: The Average Grossing of Super Hit is not equal to the Average Grossing of Blockbuster movies

Table 13 : Worldwide Grossing of Super Hit and Blockbuster Movies

Super Hit

Hit

309

162

202

110

103

102

220

211

205

150

186

125

175

175

153

240

143

206

94

110

95

98
92
181
84
100
76

Table 14: t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

Super Hit

Hit

Mean

171.3636

138.875

Variance

4123.855

2615.717

Observations

11

16

Pooled Variance

3218.972

Hypothesized Mean Difference

df

25

t Stat

1.462

P (T <= t) one-tail

0.078099

t Critical one-tail

1.708141

P (T <= t) two-tail

0.156199

t Critical two-tail

2.059539

The results of the two-sample test are shown above. The test statistic is 1.46, which does not fall in the
rejection region, so we dont have enough data to reject the null hypothesis of worldwide grossing of
Super Hit movies equal to the Worldwide grossing of Blockbuster movies.
Box Office Verdict and Multi-star cast movies

Is the Box Office Verdict influenced by Multi-star cast movies or are they independent of each other?
Let us use the Chi square test for Independence to find whether there is any significant association
between Box-office Verdict and star cast in movies. All time Blockbusters are excluded from this analysis
since they are outliers.
The Null Hypothesis (H0) and Alternate Hypothesis (H1) are as under:
H0: Box Office Verdict is independent of the Multi-star presence in the film
H1: Box Office Verdict is dependent on the Multi-star presence in the film
Note: To do the calculation, we have taken a sample size of 40.

Table 15: Observed values

Oij

Box Office Verdict

Multi-star

Blockbuster

Hit

Super Hit

Grand Total

No

22

Yes

18

Grand Total

13

14

11

40

Eij is calculated using the following formula:

Where,
A

Multi star

Box office verdict

Row number

column number

Eij

Expected value under the assumption that both are independent

Table 16: E ij Calculations

Calculating Respective Eij

Box Office Verdict

Multi-star

Blockbuster

Hit

Super Hit

Grand Total

7.15

7.7

6.05

22

5.85

6.3

4.95

18

Grand Total

13

14

11

40

Chi square is calculated using the formula give below:

obs

= ij

(r-1) (c-1)

where,
Eij

Expected value under the assumption that both are independent

Oij

Observed Value

Row number

column number

At 5% level of significance,

If

obs >

(0.05, 2),

We reject the Ho, else we will not due to lack of statistical evidence.
Table 17: Chi square Calculation

Calculating

2.054531327

0.478671329

0.06363636

0.000413223

0.585042735

0.07777778

0.848989899

1.063714064

0.14141414

0.849403122

Table 18: Observed and Critical Value

5.991464547

(Critical value)

obs

2.054531327

(Observed value)

As observed value is not greater than the critical value at 5% level of significance, we do not reject the
null hypothesis. Hence from this test we infer that a movies box office verdict is independent of presence
of Multi-star.

IIFA Awards
The International Indian Film Academy Awards (also known as the IIFA Awards) are a set of awards
presented annually by the International Indian Film Academy to honor both artistic and technical
excellence of professionals in Bollywood, the Hindi language film industry. Instituted in 2000, the

ceremony is held in different countries around the world every year with the most recent one being held in
Tampa Bay Area, Florida USA.5
Awards and Number of Stars casted in a movie
Is the jury biased towards Multi-star cast movies? Lets perform a Z statistic test to verify the above
claim.
Lets state a Null Hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis for this case,
H0: Multi-star movies receive same number of awards as Non-Multi-starrer movies
H1: Multi-star movies receive more number of awards as compared to Non Multi-starrer movies

Table 19: Awards received to Multi-star and non Multi-star movies

Multi-star

Non Multi-star

14

14

10

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Indian_Film_Academy_Awards

5
0
0
5

Table 20: z-Test: Two Sample for Means

z-Test: Two Sample for Means

Multi-star

Non Multi-star

Mean

2.277777778

2.545454545

Known Variance

14.44

13.68

Observations

18

22

Hypothesized Mean Difference

-0.224310459

P(Z<=z) one-tail

0.411257869

z Critical one-tail

1.644853627

P(Z<=z) two-tail

0.822515739

z Critical two-tail

1.959963985

The results of the two-sample test are shown above. The z value is -0.22, which falls in the acceptance
region, so we do not have enough evidence to reject null hypothesis. Hence we infer with 95% confidence
that both Multi-star and non-Multi-star movies are treated impartially by the jury.

Genre
The Genre in Bollywood movies can be broadly classified into Action, Comedy, Drama and Romance.
Worldwide gross ad budget to gross ratio with respect to different genre are given I the table below
Worldwide gross in crores
Action

Comedy

Drama

Romance

533

424

202

309

375

186

126

110

162

150

175

103

319

125

117

211

205

184

98

153

240

92

143

84

206

160

200

76

94

181

95

102

100

175

251

110

220
230
140
215
Mean = 235.14

Mean = 178

Mean = 151.57

Mean = 142.6

We can observe from the table that Mean Worldwide grossing Action ad Comedy genre are significantly
higher compared to other genre. Is the population mean of Action and Comedy movies same? Lets test
this using t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances.
The Null Hypothesis (H0) and Alternate Hypothesis (H1) are as under:
H0: The Worldwide Gross of Action movies is equal to comedy movies
H1: The Worldwide Gross of Action movies greater than comedy movies
Table 21: Worldwide gross of Action and Comedy genre movies

Action

Comedy

533

424

375

186

162

150

319

125

205

184

240

92

206

160

94

181

102

100

251
220
230
140
215

Table 22: t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

Action

Comedy

Mean

235.1429

178

Variance

13081.21

9752.75

14

Observations
Hypothesized Mean Difference
Df

0
19

t Stat

1.272038

P(T<=t) one-tail

0.109354

t Critical one-tail

1.729133

P(T<=t) two-tail

0.218709

t Critical two-tail

2.093024

The results of the two-sample test are shown above. The t stat value is 1.27, which falls in the acceptance
region, so we do not have enough evidence to reject null hypothesis. Hence we infer with 95% confidence
that both Action and Comedy movies make same amount of worldwide grossing.

Multi-starrer
Different types of movies are released in a year that is either multi-starrer or single-starrer. Let's look at
the number of multi-starrer movies released in a span of four years viz. 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Movie
Dhoom 3
Krrish 3

Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani

Race 2
Jab Tak Hai Jaan

Agneepath
Housefull 2
Barfi
Son Of Sardar
Bol Bachchan
Talassh
Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara
The Dirty Picture
Golmall 3
Housefull
Rajneeti
Once Upon A Time In Mumbai
Tees Maar Khan

So, we can observe from the above table that 18 movies released in the combined four years out of the 40
movies that we have considered were multi-starrer. But, the industry's claim is that more than 40%
percent of the movies that were released in the four years were multi-starrer. Let us verify the claim using
test for population proportion using one sample test at 5% level of significance.
Lets state a Null Hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis for this case,
H0: Less than or equal to 40% of the movies released were multi-starrer (pi<=0.4)
H1: More than 40% of the movies released are multi-starrer (pi>0.4)
One sample Z test
Total number of movies

40

Multi-Starrer movies

18

Sample proportion

0.45

Population Proportion

0.4

Z Observed value

0.649

z Critical one-tail

1.644853627

As observed value is less than the critical value, above finding suggest that due to lack of evidence we'll
need to accept the null hypothesis i.e. less than or equal to 40% movies are multi-starrer.

Blockbusters
4 out of 10 movies that we considered of the year 2011 were founded out to be blockbusters. Years 2010,
2012 and 2013 put together witnessed 5 out of 30 movies that we surveyed as blockbusters.
Let us have a look at the below table.

Years
2011

Movie
Bodyguard
Ready
Singham
The Dirty Picture

2013

Bhag Milkha Bhag

2010

Golmaal 3
My name is Khan

2012

Ek Tha Tiger
Dabangg 2

Does the above table indicate that year 2011 standalone produced same number of blockbusters as the
years 2010, 2012 and put together? Let us verify the same at 5% confidence interval using 2 sample tests
for population proportion.

Lets state a Null Hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis for this case,
H0: Movies released in 2011 produced same number of blockbusters as years 2011, 2012 and 2013
combined

H1: Movies released in 2011 did not produce same number of blockbusters as years 2011, 2012 and
2013 combined
Two sample Z test

Year 2011

Remaining 3 Years Combined

Total number of movies

10

30

Multi-Starrer movies

Sample proportion

0.4

0.166

p bar

0.225

Z Observed value

0.4853

z Critical one-tail

1.96

As observed values is less than critical value we conclude that due to lack of evidence movies released in
2011 produced same number of blockbusters as years 2011, 2012 and 2013 combined

Day of Release
Movies are normally released on weekends. So let us find out the performance of the movie released on a
particular day of the week. Since, most of the movies are released on Thursday or Friday, we have
considered only these two days in our analysis.
H0: Worldwide gross proportions do not differ for Friday or Thursday
H1: Worldwide gross proportions differ significantly for Friday or Thursday

Day Of the week

Worldwide gross in

Day Of the week

Worldwide gross in crores

crores
Friday

533

Thursday

424

Friday

375

Thursday

205

Friday

309

Thursday

186

Friday

202

Friday

126

Friday

162

Friday

110

Friday

103

Friday

102

Friday

251

Friday

220

Friday

175

Friday

125

Friday

175

Friday

184

Friday

206

Friday

140

Friday

153

Friday

117

Friday

110

Friday

98

Friday

92

Friday

215

Friday

160

Friday

181

Friday

143

Friday

200

Friday

94

Friday

84

Friday

76

Friday

100

Friday

95

F-Test Two-Sample for

Variances

Worldwide gross in crores

Worldwide gross in crores

Mean

169.25

271.6666667

Variance

8926.967742

17494.33333

Observations

32

df

31

0.510277675

P(F<=f) one-tail

0.157966355

F Critical one-tail

0.302588592

Thus, worldwide gross proportions differ significantly for Friday or Thursday

Findings

Average gross collection of the best actor in terms of mean collection is same as average gross
collection of the best actress in terms of mean collection.

There is no significant difference in budget to gross ration between an All-time blockbuster and a
blockbuster

Average budget required to make a movie super hit is almost same as the budget required to make
a blockbuster movie

Average grossing of a Super hit movie is equal to average grossing of a Hit movie

Box office verdict is independent of the number of stars in a movie

The IIFA award received by a movie is independent of number of stars casted in the movie

World-wide Gross of Action movies are same as World-wide Gross of comedy movies.

Recommendation

Cast either Aamir Khan or Deepika Padukone or both to gross maximum collection from a movie

Returns from an All-time Blockbuster are same as a Blockbuster movie. But the sheer gross of an
All-time Blockbuster movie is huge. Hence, to make huge profits increase the budget of a movie.
The Bollywood market is big enough to provide returns with same ROI.

A movie becoming an All-time blockbuster, Blockbuster or a Super Hit is independent of the

budget of the movie. A huge budget may not make a movie an All-time blockbuster

A Multi-star movie is no different from a single star movie. Mere number of stars in a movie
might not guarantee success.

The number of awards received by a Multi-starrer movie is same as a single starrer movie.

The performance of an action movie is same as that of comedy movies in box office. Grossing of
comedy and action genre movies in Bollywood is significantly more compared to other genres.

Directors should target to release movie on Fridays as that results in more worldwide gross
turnover.

Utility
This statistical data and inference can be used by any investor to select the right kind of movies to invest
with. Further, decision making with respect to casting of stars, genre of the movie and to forecast the
possible returns of investments of the movie produced.

References

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bollywood_films_of_2013