Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
SECTOR REPORT
We believe investments in Transmission and Distribution (T&D) infrastructure will drive growth for companies with a strong
presence in these segments. We initiate coverage on KEC International Limited (KEC) and Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL). We
recommend a BUY on KEC with a price target of ` 89 and BUY on JSL with a price target of ` 110.
Investment Thesis
Power Demand is estimated to grow at 7.8% between 2010 and 2015 on back of GDP growth of 8% to 8.5% over next five
years. In line with the power requirement of the country, 95 GW of power capacity is expected to be added in the next five years,
considering only 33 GW additions over the previous five years.
As sequential transmission lines addition is required in line with the generation capacity additions, significant transmission lines
and substations addition are expected over the next five years. In addition, lower investments in T&D infrastructure over the years,
has necessitated strengthening of the existing networks.
Thus to strengthen the existing system and evacuation of power from new power plants, target of 95,283 circuit kms (ckm) of
transmission lines is planned for the 11th plan and 155,000 ckm to 180,000 ckm during the 12th plan. Growth in transmission
systems will include not just the physical growth in the transmission network but also the introduction of higher transmission
voltages for bulk power transmission, with the aim of limiting transmission losses.
Over the next five years (2010-15E), investments worth ` 3.4 trillion are expected to be made in T&D as compared to ` 1.64
trillion made during 2005-10. This presents significant opportunity for players in transmission line EPC segment.
We initiate coverage on KEC International Limited (KEC) and Jyoti Structures Limited (JSL).
KEC: At CMP of ` 72, KEC is trading at a P/E of 8.6x its FY11E earnings, 7.8x its FY12E and 7.3 its FY13E earnings. Considering
GOI focus on T&D, KECs strong presence in domestic market, robust order backlog and acquisition of SAE towers which allow
KEC to tap US market, we assign a P/E multiple of 9x to its FY13E earnings and recommend a BUY on the stock with a price
target of ` 89.
JSL: At CMP of `78, JSL is trading at a P/E of 7.9x its FY11E earnings, 6.9x its FY12E and 6.4 its FY13E earnings. Considering
GOI focus on T&D, JSLs presence in domestic market and strong order backlog, we assign a P/E multiple of 9x to its FY13E
earnings and recommend a BUY on the stock with a price target of ` 110.
Analyst
Chinmay S. Gandre
research@acm.co.in
Tel: (022) 2858 3407
Transmission Line EPC
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Transmission Industry
A T&D system comprises transmission lines, substations, switching stations,
transformers and distribution lines. The transmission segment plays a key role in
transmitting power to various distribution entities across the country. A T&D system is
organized in a grid, which interconnects various generating stations and load centers.
This ensures uninterrupted power supply to a load center, even if there is a failure at
the local generating station or a maintenance shutdown.
In India, the T&D system is a three-tier structure comprising distribution networks,
state grids and regional grids. Distribution networks and state grids are primarily
owned and operated by the respective SEBs. Most inter-state transmission links are
owned and operated by PGCIL, with some jointly owned by the SEBs concerned. In
addition, PGCIL owns and operates a number of inter-regional transmission lines to
facilitate the transfer of power from a surplus region to one with deficit.
The transmission system in India operates at several voltage levels:
Extra high voltage (EHV): 765 Kv, 400 Kv and 220 Kv
High voltage: 132 Kv and 66 Kv
Medium voltage: 33 Kv, 11 Kv, 6.6 Kv and 3.3 Kv
Low voltage: 1.1 Kv, 220 volts and below
The total length of transmission lines in the country has increased to 7.28 million
ckm in 2007-08 vs 3.6 million ckm in 1998-99.
Transmission Lines (ckm)
Year
HVDC
800 Kv
400 Kv
230/220
Kv
132/110/90
Kv
78/66 Kv
33/22/20
Kv
15/11 Kv
6.6/3.3/2.2
Kv
Distribution
lines
Total
1998-99
1,672
36,122
85,141
105,744
41,044
263,165
1,634,840
4,494
3,568,189
5,710,411
1999-00
1,672
37,636
86,963
107,522
41,646
269,963
1,660,453
4,431
3,525,121
5,735,407
2000-01
3,176
38,004
92,470
110,110
43,169
274,103
1,711,619
4,562
3,570,347
5,847,560
2001-02
4,104
40,887
97,238
118,180
43,849
288,226
1,753,331
4,737
3,679,596
6,030,148
2002-03
5,876
51,785
99,779
120,958
43,202
302,981
1,936,689
4,558
3,985,909
6,551,737
2003-04
5,876
53,616
101,667
121,925
43,297
283,240
1,869,371
6,362
3,859,504
6,344,858
2004-05
6,841
563
57,185
104,758
124,344
45,884
299,639
1,971,722
6,431
3,953,456
6,570,823
2005-06
6,841
563
57,840
108,261
129,465
47,231
309,708
2,047,460
6,474
4,064,516
6,778,359
2006-07
6,841
563
58,018
111,572
132,124
49,462
314,538
2,085,897
6,431
4,149,923
6,939,529
2007-08
6,428
1,692
65,175
115,452
138,137
49,945
335,351
2,231,698
6,519
4,328,549
7,278,946
2010-11 P
2011-12 P
2012-13 P
2013-14 P
2014-15 P
3,690
5,736
5,262
3,021
3,705
Total
21,414
State
3,112
2,800
3,510
3,103
2,648
15,173
Private
4,285
6,397
7,620
12,675
14,545
45,522
11,087
14,933
16,392
18,799
20,898
82,109
2,362
2,722
2,351
2,673
2,865
12,973
13,449
17,655
18,743
21,472
23,763
95,082
Total
Captive
Total (including
captive)
Source: CRISIL
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
200910 E
Generation-Utilities
201011 P
647.7
201112 P
201213 P
767.4
884.5
993.6
201314 P
201415 P
1,131.2
1,290.8
Total (2010-11
to 2014-15)
5,067.4
Generation-Captives
100.2
112.2
124.9
145.4
169.3
197.1
749.0
Total T&D
431.0
499.5
579.4
672.7
781.6
908.8
3,442.0
1,178.9
1,379.1
1,588.8
1,811.7
2,082.1
2,396.7
9,258.5
2010 to 15P
CAGR growth
Total Investments
Source: CRISIL
Investments in
2000 to 05
2005 to 10
CAGR growth
2005 to10
T&D ` Bn
814
1,638
2010 to15
15%
3,442
16%
Source: CRISIL
Existing by
10th plan
Target Additions
for the 11thplan
Existing capacity
as of Sept 2010
Total by
March 2012
Target additions
in12thplan
765 kV
2,184
5,428
3,829
7,612
25,000 to
30,000
HVDC 500 kV
5,872
1,606
NA
7,478
30,000
3,600
NA
3,600
5,000
400 kV
75,722
49,278
100,910
125,000
50,000
220 kV
114,629
35,371
130,788
150,000
40,000
Total
198,407
95,283
NA
293,690
150,000
to155,000
HVDC 800/600
kV
Source: CEA
Substation MVA/MW
HVDC terminal capacity
765 kV
400 kV
Existing by
10thplan
Additions
11thplan
Total by March
2012
Estimated additions
in12th plan
8,200
6,000
14,200
16,000 to 22,000
53,000
53,000
1,10,000
92,942
52,058
145,000
80,000
230/220 kV
156,497
73,503
230,000
95,000
Total
257,639
184,561
442,200
301,000 to 307,000
Source: CEA
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Growth in transmission systems will include not just the physical growth in the
transmission network but also the introduction of higher transmission voltages for bulk
power transmission, with the aim of limiting transmission losses. The up gradation
and replacement of existing transmission lines to higher voltage would increase the
demand for transmission towers.
Development of inter-regional transmission corridors
To facilitate transfer of power from surplus regions to deficit regions and evacuation
of power from central sector generation projects and Ultra Mega Power projects
(UMPPs), both 11th and 12th plan are focused on strengthening and developing the
national and inter-regional transmission corridors. In line Power Grid Corporation
of India Limited (PGCIL) has invested ` 254.4 billion till FY10 and has planned
capital outlay of ` 295.6 billion for FY11 and FY12. On May 31st 2010 the Central
electricity regulatory commission (CERC) approved PGCIL to proceed with the
execution of 9 high capacity power transmission corridors (HCPTCs) that will help
transport electricity to the main load centers from 48 new IPP plants located in
coal belt, coastal areas or hydroelectricity-rich areas in the Northeast region. The
government has approved ` 580 billion for the same. Thus, inter-regional transmission
capacity is expected to increase from 13,450 MW to 38,050 MW by 2012 and to
75,150 MW by 2017
Inter-Regional
By 10th plan
Capacity - MW
East South
Additions 11th
By 11th Plan
plan
3,130
Additions in
By 12th Plan
12th Plan
500
3,630
4,200
7,830
East North
3,430
8,700
12,130
5,900
18,030
East West
1,790
4,700
6,490
10,500
16,990
East-North East
1,260
1,600
2,860
2,860
North West
2,120
2,100
4,220
10,200
14,420
West-South
1,720
1,000
2,720
6,300
9,020
6,000
6,000
6,000
13,450
24,600
38,050
37,100
75,150
Key policies like Accelerated Power Development Reform Programme & Rajiv
Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) to encourage investments in T&D.
GOI formulated the Accelerated Power Development Reform Programme (APDRP)
under which states are given loans, grants and incentives for upgrading and
modernizing their sub-transmission and distribution (below 33 Kv or 66 Kv networks).
The union government in April 2005 with the objective to provide electricity to all
villages and habitations initiated the Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana
(RGGVY). On a countrywide basis, about 67 per cent of the total project cost of
RGGVY schemes amounting to ` 154 billion has been released till December 2009.
Both these initiatives are expected to encourage investments in the transmission sector.
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Peer Analysis
Capacities
Jyoti Structures Ltd, KEC International and Kalpataru Power are dominant players
in the industry. KEC is the largest player with an annual capacity of 1.51 million MT
followed by Jyoti Structures and Kalpataru. Apart from their own capacities, these
players also outsource towers from qualified vendors.
In 000 MT
Jyoti
KEC
Kalpataru
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Capacity
76
96
110
110
Production
61
74
85
119
Capacity
58
113
151
151
Production
51
93
107
109
36
34
32
32
Purchased
10
24
39
35
Capacity
84
108
108
108
Production
78
80
80
102
NA
13
20
Note: For JSL production numbers includes production outsourced to various parties.Source: ACMIIL Research
Geographical presence
JSL is predominantly a domestic player, with ~78% of the revenues coming from
domestic market. On the other hand, KEC and Kalpataru are diversified with greater
presence in the international markets. Approximately 56% of KECs revenue comes
from international market like Africa, Middle East and Central Asia, while exports
constitute ~43% of Kalpatarus sales.
Particulars
Exports as a % of total sales (FY10)
KEC
Jyoti
55.8%
Kalpataru
22.1%
43.2%
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Financial analysis
` Mn
Jyoti
KEC
Kalpataru
21,297.7
39,063.9
25,960.4
29.9%
24.2%
19.4%
OPM - FY10
10.7
10.4
12.8
NPM - FY10
3.9
4.8
6.6
14.9%
21.7%
2.2%
8,778.6
16,199.5
16,064.6
0.8
1.0
0.6
RONW - FY10
D/E - FY10
17.0
24.0
17.3
ROCE - FY10
24.7
23.4
20.5
Order backlog
Players have strong order backlog giving revenue visibility for next 18 to 22 months
Order backlog
2.5
100
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.8
1.5
80
` Bn
60
1.0
41
0.5
0.0
40
80
KEC
Order back log Q3 FY11( RHS)
Jyoti
50
Kalpataru
20
0
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
BUY
Key Data
(`)
CMP
72
Target Price
89
Key Data
Bloomberg Code
KECI IN
Reuters Code
KECL.BO
BSE Code
532714
NSE Code
KEC
KEC International Limited (KEC), incorporated in 1945 is one of the leading players
in the power transmission EPC business in India and international markets. KEC
undertakes designing, manufacturing and construction of turnkey high-voltage power
transmission line projects. It also engages in projects related to power distribution
network, railway electrification, sub-stations and optical fiber cable installations. The
company has presence across geographies, with revenues from international market
constituting 55% of the total revenues in FY10. In the international markets, KEC is
primarily present in the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia.
123
KECs business can be broadly divided into transmission, distribution, cables and
railways.
71
18120
154,870
41.7
FII
5.0
DII
38.1
Others
15.2
Total
(` mn)
Revenues
Operating Profits
OPM (%)
100.0
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
47,067.7
54,236.0
58,578.3
4,824.4
5,553.2
5,922.3
10.3
10.2
10.1
2,151.3
2,379.2
2,533.5
4.6
4.4
4.3
EPS (`)
8.4
9.3
9.9
PAT
SAE Towers
6%
Cables
10%
Distribution
10%
Telecom and
railway
3%
Transmission
71%
Source: Company
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
103.3
160.0
182.6
186.9
50.8
92.8
107.1
108.8
Purchases
9.8
23.6
39.0
35.3
Outsourced
35.6
34.1
31.8
32.3
58
113
151
151
Production
Capacity
Source: Company
The company also has 4 tower testing stations, capable of testing towers of up to
1200 Kv transmission line.
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Railways segment
The segment undertakes civil infrastructure including earthwork, bridges, tunnels
and station building along with track laying and signaling work. It has electrified
5,000 track kms. The company is pre-qualified for all the railway construction related
activities
Order book
As of Q3 FY11 KECs standalone order backlog stands at ` 73 billion, which is1.8x
TTM sales. International orders constitute 49% of the total order book, while the rest
51% constitute of domestic orders. International orders primarily constitute of orders
from Middle East, Africa, Central Asia and America.
Particulars - ` Mn
Middle East
and Africa
Transmission
11,910.0
Distribution
Central
America
Asia
7,740.0
Asia
Domestic
Total
23,280.0
50,790.0
69.9
Pacific
7,620.0
240.0
7,400.0
15,370.0
21.2
Cables
7,970.0
1,830.0
1,830.0
2.5
E-BOP
400.0
400.0
0.6
Telecom
380.0
380.0
0.5
Railways
Total
%
3,900.0
3,900.0
5.4
11,910.0
15,710.0
7,620.0
240.0
37,190.0
72,670.0
100.0
16.4
21.6
10.5
0.3
51.2
100.0
Source: Company
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Key Positives
KECs Strong presence in Indian markets
Although KEC has presence in various regions across the globe the company is a
dominant player in the Indian markets also with a market share of ~18% to 19%.
The company has a strong track record and has expertise in 765 Kv, 500 Kv and
400Kv transmission lines. KEC also has the capability to construct substations of
up to 400 kV, making it a total turnkey EPC contractor for power transmission lines.
Domestic Market Share
Kalpataru
16% to 17%
Others
47% to 48%
Jyoti Structures
17% to 18 %
KEC
18% to 19%
75
73
70
70.00
60.00
64.63
65
` Bn
80.00
50.00
40.00
60.51
60
57.07
55.43
55
51.63
30.00
56.5
20.00
51.55
10.00
50
0.00
45
Q4 FY09
Q1 FY10
Q2 FY10
Q3 FY10
Q4 FY10
Q1 FY11
Q2 FY11
Q3 FY11
Q4 FY10
Transmission Line
Q1 FY11
Q2 FY11
Cables
Q3 FY11
SAE Tower
Source: Company
ACMIIL
SECTOR REPORT
Key Concerns
Working capital intensive business
The T&D business is working capital intensive in nature and the requirement is
primarily funded through short-term loans. Working capital loans required stood
at ~30% of sales. Thus, working capital management is crucial and increase in
working capital requirement has a direct impact on interest cost and thereby the
profitability of the company.
Uncovered risk related to raw material prices
Domestic transmission line EPC contracts include a price variation clause for
adjusting changes in raw material prices. However international contracts are
based on fixed price. Steel, aluminum and zinc are the main raw materials for
construction of a transmission line. Steel and aluminum, constitute about 15 %
of the operational costs each, and zinc constitutes around 2-3%. To neutralize the
effect of fluctuations in raw material prices KEC generally enters into hedging
of aluminum through forward contracts. For supply of steel, KEC enters into
advance contracts with vendors for 5-6 months, for reducing risks involved with
its price changes. However, steel is not fully covered, keeping the risk open for
the company to that extent. Currently ~ 35% of the total order backlog (primarily
export orders) is not subject to price variation clause.
Foreign currency risk:
KEC has presence in more than 40 countries. Revenues from international markets
constitute approximately 55% of total revenues. The company tries to match
receipts with payments. However, foreign exchange risk is not fully covered.
Competition
Apart from the established dominant player approximately 45 others EPC
contractors participated in PGCIL tenders in 2010. Participation by such players
has significantly increased competition and has resulted in increased pricing
pressure in the industry.
14.8
14.0
12.5
12.0
12.8
11.8
12.6
11.6
11.4
10.0
8.0
10.4
8.8
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
FY08
FY09
KEC
Jyoti
FY10
Kalpataru
Operating margins of all the three major players have dropped in range of 100 to 200
bps as compared to FY08.
ACMIIL
10
SECTOR REPORT
BOOT
The company is participating in the bids for BOOT projects. These projects
requiring high investments would be developed in 70:30 debt/equity ratio. In
case the company emerges as a successful bidder for the project, it will convert
the company from current pure product & solutions provider (EPC contractor) to
services-cum-solutions provider (Owner cum EPC contractor). The clear picture
related to financial requirements, profitability in view of SEBs being the client
and augmented man power requirements can emerge only after winning of a
particular project.
Foray into new verticals
KEC is foraying into new verticals like railway infrastructure. Indian Railways
(IR) is a monopsony market, which limit bargaining power of KEC. In addition,
as company is trying to create its space in this vertical, margins are also expected
to be subdued, which will have an impact on consolidated margins.
SWOT Analysis
Strength
Weakness
capabilities.
Strong presence in domestic market with market
Threats
Capacity addition planned for the 11th and Competition from domestic EPC contractors has
12th plan would lead to significant addition of
transmission lines.
Financials
KECs net sales have increased at a CAGR of 24% from ` 20,406.3 million in FY07
to ` 39,072.3 million in FY10 on back of investments in T&D. We expect net sales
to grow at CAGR of 15% to ` 58,578.3 million in FY13E.
Operating margins dropped from 12% in FY07 to 10.4% in FY10 on account of
increased pricing pressure in the industry. We expect marginal fall in operating profits
margins as we expect SAE towers which earns operating margins in range of 13%
to 14% to partly arrest fall in margins on account of increased pricing pressure in
domestic industry. We expect the company to register OPM of 10.3%, 10.2% and
10.1% in FY11E, FY12E and FY13E respectively.
ACMIIL
11
SECTOR REPORT
15 PE
Close Price
12 PE
10 PE
10/3/2011
10/3/2010
7/3/2010
1/3/2009
4/3/2010
7/3/2009
10/3/2009
1/3/2009
4/3/2009
10/3/2008
4/3/2008
7/3/2008
1/3/2008
10/3/2007
4/3/2007
7/3/2007
1/3/2007
7/3/2006
10/3/2006
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
4/3/2006
8 PE
Jyoti Strcutures
10/3/2010
7/3/2010
4/3/2010
1/3/2009
10/3/2009
4/3/2009
KEC International
7/3/2009
1/3/2009
10/3/2008
7/3/2008
4/3/2008
1/3/2008
10/3/2007
4/3/2007
7/3/2007
1/3/2007
7/3/2006
10/3/2006
4/3/2006
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
10/3/2011
Kalapatau Power
ACMIIL
12
SECTOR REPORT
Financials
Profit & Loss Account
Particulars
` Mn
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Net Sales
20,406.3
28,144.7
34,273.9
39,063.9
47,067.7
54,236.0
58,578.3
Total Expenditure
17,887.8
24,601.5
31,278.1
35,013.7
42,243.2
48,682.8
52,656.0
Operating Profit
2,518.5
3,543.2
3,010.3
4,058.6
4,824.4
5,553.2
5,922.3
6.9
2.5
5.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.0
2,525.4
3,545.7
3,016.2
4,068.5
4,834.4
5,563.2
5,932.3
334.4
250.7
230.0
270.2
403.6
483.1
508.3
2,191.1
3,295.1
2,786.2
3,798.3
4,430.8
5,080.1
5,424.0
592.5
676.5
999.7
864.7
1,121.2
1,419.8
1,526.3
1,598.6
2,618.5
1,786.5
2,933.6
3,309.6
3,660.3
3,897.7
552.2
896.9
618.4
1,037.0
1,158.4
1,281.1
1,364.2
1,046.4
Other Income
EBIDTA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Taxes
PAT
1,721.6
1,168.1
1,896.6
2,151.3
2,379.2
2,533.5
37.9
21.8
14.0
20.5
15.2
8.0
40.7
-15.0
34.8
18.9
15.1
6.6
64.5
-32.2
61.6
14.0
10.6
6.5
12.3
12.6
8.8
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
5.1
6.1
3.4
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.3
OPM (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)
Source: ACMIIL Research, Company
Balance Sheet
Particulars
` Mn
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Sources of Funds
Share Capital
376.9
493.4
493.4
514.2
514.2
514.2
514.2
2,343.1
4,458.3
5,087.4
7,356.8
8,911.6
10,694.3
12,631.4
2,719.9
4,951.7
5,580.9
7,870.9
9,425.7
11,208.5
13,145.5
3,864.2
5,917.7
6,218.2
7,867.4
14,185.5
15,020.2
15,963.7
334.8
446.8
298.2
461.1
461.1
461.1
461.1
6,918.9
11,316.2
12,097.3
16,199.5
24,072.3
26,689.7
29,570.3
4,676.3
5,213.0
6,319.6
8,357.4
11,370.3
13,420.3
14,120.3
600.0
898.5
1,247.8
1,570.1
1,973.7
2,456.8
2,965.2
4,076.2
4,314.4
5,071.8
6,787.4
9,396.5
10,963.4
11,155.1
22.9
189.0
543.3
412.8
450.0
100.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,756.6
2,756.6
2,756.6
205.9
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,569.4
6,561.8
6,482.2
8,999.3
11,469.2
12,869.7
15,558.6
44.5
246.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6,918.9
11,316.2
12,097.3
16,199.5
24,072.3
26,689.7
29,570.3
ACMIIL
13
SECTOR REPORT
` Mn
Particulars
FY07
PBT
FY08
FY09
1,598.6
2,618.5
Depreciation
334.4
Interest
603.2
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
3,309.6
FY13E
1,786.5
2,933.6
3,660.3
3,897.7
250.7
230.0
270.2
403.6
483.1
508.3
680.6
1,016.7
944.7
1,121.2
1,419.8
1,526.3
Add
2,389.4
3,618.1
3,396.7
3,644.2
4,834.4
5,563.2
5,932.3
-2,213.4
-2,669.4
1,010.0
-2,519.4
-2,442.4
-1,626.6
-2,071.9
Less Taxes
-394.6
-905.4
-624.5
-778.2
-1,158.4
-1,281.1
-1,364.2
-218.5
43.4
3,767.2
346.6
1,233.7
2,655.5
2,496.2
-98.2
-317.8
-1,380.6
-508.5
-5,806.6
-1,700.0
-700.0
-99.2
556.4
-1,687.4
-678.3
4,600.4
-1,181.6
-1,179.2
-416.0
282.0
699.1
-840.2
27.5
-226.1
617.0
629.9
213.9
689.9
1,409.9
699.3
726.8
500.7
0.0
0.0
20.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
184.5
0.0
129.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
213.9
680.4
1,409.9
699.3
726.8
500.7
1,117.7
Ratios
Particulars
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Profitability Ratios
OPM (%)
12.3
12.6
8.8
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
5.1
6.1
3.4
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.3
RONW (%)
38.5
34.8
20.9
24.0
22.8
21.2
19.3
ROCE (%)
31.7
29.1
23.0
23.4
18.4
19.0
18.3
5.6
7.0
4.7
7.3
8.4
9.3
9.9
5.4
7.7
5.4
8.4
9.9
11.1
11.8
14.4
20.1
22.6
30.6
25.9
32.9
40.4
P/E (x)
9.8
8.6
7.8
7.3
P/CEPS (x)
8.5
7.2
6.5
6.1
P/BV (x)
2.4
2.8
2.2
1.8
Debt/Equity
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.3
1.2
Current Ratio
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
Turnover Ratios
Debtors turnover ratio
2.3
2.0
1.8
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
13.6
13.7
15.2
15.6
15.2
15.2
15.2
5.0
6.5
6.8
5.8
5.0
4.9
5.3
ACMIIL
14
SECTOR REPORT
BUY
Key Data
(`)
CMP
78
Target Price
110
Key Data
Bloomberg Code
JYS IN
Reuters Code
JYTS.BO
BSE Code
513250
NSE Code
JYOTISTRUC
6390
178
77
Power
Geneation
Station
377,835
High Voltage Transmission Line
FII
11.01
DII
29.88
Others
31.5
Total
(` mn)
Operating Profits
OPM (%)
100.0
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
24,211.9
26,456.0
29,117.1
2,552.1
2,683.7
2,976.4
10.5
10.1
10.2
992.4
1,141.8
1,229.7
4.1
4.3
4.2
EPS (`)
9.9
11.3
12.2
PAT
Distribution Line
Transmission lines
JSL has over 30 years of experience in executing turnkey projects in the field of extra
high voltage (EHV) transmission lines. It offers complete solutions that include tower
design, tower testing, manufacturing and onsite construction up to capacity of 800
Kv HVAC or 500 Kv HVDC. The company also has its own testing facilities that
can test towers up to 1,200 Kv. It has its manufacturing facilities located in Nasik
(Annual Capacity: 68,000 MT) and Raipur (Annual Capacity: 42,000 MT). In FY10,
transmission lines contributed 70% to its total revenues.
Transmission Towers
140
120
120
100
100
000 MT
Promoters
Revenues
Consumer
Substation
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
FY06
FY07
FY08
Capacity
Production
FY09
FY10
Utilisation
Source: Company
Substations
JSL has undertaken projects ranging from the augmentation of existing substations
to development of new substations. It has capabilities to construct substations up to
400 Kv and has successfully completed 559 bays. Substations contributed 15% to
total revenues in FY10.
Distributions/ Rural electrification
JSL has electrified over 2,361 villages and provides connections to over 450,000
households. Currently electrification of 4,447 villages is in progress. This segment
contributed 15% to total revenues in FY10.
ACMIIL
15
SECTOR REPORT
Order book
As of Q3FY11 JSLs order backlog stands at ` 41 billion (~200,000 MT), which is
2x TTM sales. Domestic orders constitute 82% of the total order book, while exports
constitute the remaining 18%. Clients wise, SEBs together constitute 58% of the total
order book followed by PGCIL (26%) and private players constituting the remaining
16%. Segment wise transmission line constitutes 80% of the total order backlog
followed by rural electrification (15%) and substations (5%).
Order Book Break Up
5%
18%
15%
82%
80%
Transmission
Rural
Substation
Domestic
Export
Source: Company
Foreign Operations
To expand its presence in the Gulf, JSL has a formed joint venture company named
Gulf Jyoti International LLC (GJIL) with Gulf Investment Corporation. JSL stake
in the JV is 30%. GJIL has its facilities located in Dubai with an annual capacity of
50,000 MT. As of Q3 FY11, GJILs order book stands at ~` 10 billion. JSL has also
formed a subsidiary, Jyoti Structures Africa (Pty) Ltd. in South Africa, in 2007 to
participate in local transmission markets.
Apart from Gulf and African region the company also plans to foray in the US
market. It is planning to set up a facility in USA that will manufacture steel towers.
The company plans to invest USD 12 million for the same.
ACMIIL
16
SECTOR REPORT
Key Positives
JSLs strong presence in domestic T&D segment
JSL is one of the dominant player in the industry with a domestic market share of
~17 to 18%. The company has a strong track record having successfully completed
24,568 ckm transmission line and designed/tested towers up to a capacity of 800
kV HVAC or 500 kV HVDC for various utilities. JSL also has the capability to
construct substations of up to 400 kV, making it a total turnkey EPC contractor for
power transmission lines.
Kalpataru
16% to 17%
Others
47% to 48%
Jyoti Structures
17% to 18 %
KEC
18% to 19%
40.3
41.5
41.06
42.5
8000
41.5
7000
38.69
6000
36.06
` Mn
36.16
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
11
FY
Q3
Y1
10
Y1
Q2
F
Q1
F
10
FY
10
FY
FY
Q4
Q3
10
09
09
FY
Q2
Q1
FY
Q4
09
FY
09
FY
FY
Q3
Q2
Q1
11
11
FY
Q3
11
FY
Q2
FY
10
Q1
10
FY
Q4
0
Y1
FY
Q3
10
FY
09
FY
09
FY
Q2
F
Q1
Q4
FY
09
Q3
Q1
FY
09
45
43
41
39
37 35.6
35
33
31
29
27
25
Q2
` Bn
Source: Company
ACMIIL
17
SECTOR REPORT
Key Concerns
Working capital intensive business
The T&D business is working capital intensive in nature and the requirement is
primarily funded through short-term loans. In FY10, working capital loans required
stood at 28% to 30% of sales. Thus, working capital management is crucial and
increase in working capital requirement has a direct impact on interest cost and
thereby the profitability of the company.
Competition
Apart from the established dominant player approximately 45 others EPC contractors
participated in PGCIL tenders. Participation by such players has significantly increased
competition and has resulted in increased pricing pressure in the industry.
14.8
14.0
12.0
10.0
12.8
11.8
12.5
11.6
12.6
11.4
10.4
8.0
8.8
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
FY08
FY09
KEC
FY10
Jyoti
Kalpataru
Operating margins of all the three major players have dropped in range of 100 to 200
bps as compared to FY08.
BOOT
The company is participating in the bids for BOOT projects. These projects requiring
high investments would be developed in 70:30 debt/equity ratio. In case the company
emerges as a successful bidder for the project, it will convert the company from current
pure solutions provider (EPC contractor) to services-cum-solutions provider (Owner
cum EPC contractor). The clear picture related to financial requirements, profitability
in view of SEBs being the client and augmented man power requirements can emerge
only after winning of a particular project.
SWOT Analysis
Strength
Weakness
Threats
Capacity addition planned for the 11th and 12th plan would
ACMIIL
18
SECTOR REPORT
Financials
JSLs net sales have increased at a CAGR of ~30% from ` 9,724 million in FY07 to
` 21,297.7 million in FY10 on back of investments in T&D. We expect net sales to
grow at CAGR of 11% to ` 29,117.1 million in FY13E.
Operating margins dropped from 13% in FY07 to 10.7% in FY10 on account of
increased pricing pressure in the industry. We expect OPM to further drop to 10.2%
in FY13E.
Rights Issue
The company issued Non Convertible Debentures (NCDs) with Detachable Warrants
on rights basis.
Details of the issue
Issue:
` 120
Rights Entitlement
Warrants can be exercised within 18 months from the Date of Allotment during
the periods set out below:
August 15, 2011 to September 15, 2011 (both days inclusive),
February 15, 2012 to March 15, 2012 (both days inclusive),
June 15, 2012 to end of 18th month from the Date ofAllotment.
Promoter
NCD Allotted
Warrants Allotted
Source: Company
We have considered conversion of allotted warrants into equity shares in our financials.
Hence, we have increased share capital to ` 201.4 million.
ACMIIL
19
SECTOR REPORT
200
150
100
12 PE
12/1/10
8/1/10
4/1/10
12/1/09
8/1/09
4/1/09
12/1/08
8/1/08
15 PE
8 PE
Close Price
4/1/08
12/1/07
8/1/07
4/1/07
12/1/06
8/1/06
4/1/06
12/1/05
8/1/05
4/1/05
50
10 PE
Jyoti Strcutures
10/3/2010
7/3/2010
4/3/2010
1/3/2009
10/3/2009
4/3/2009
KEC International
7/3/2009
1/3/2009
10/3/2008
7/3/2008
4/3/2008
1/3/2008
10/3/2007
7/3/2007
4/3/2007
1/3/2007
10/3/2006
7/3/2006
4/3/2006
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
10/3/2011
Kalapatau Power
ACMIIL
20
SECTOR REPORT
Financials
Profit & Loss Account
Particulars
` Mn
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Net Sales
9,723.8
13,738.3
18,393.6
21,297.7
24,211.9
26,456.0
29,117.1
Total Expenditure
8,460.8
11,980.3
16,318.4
19,011.1
21,659.8
23,772.3
26,140.8
Operating Profit
1,263.0
1,758.0
2,075.2
2,286.6
2,552.1
2,683.7
2,976.4
8.2
15.2
56.4
63.5
60.0
60.0
60.0
1,271.2
1,773.2
2,131.6
2,350.0
2,612.1
2,743.7
3,036.4
59.4
72.0
99.4
178.4
201.4
220.2
269.0
Other Income
EBIDTA
Depreciation
EBIT
1,211.8
1,701.2
2,032.3
2,171.7
2,410.7
2,523.5
2,767.4
Interest
329.3
467.3
687.8
795.7
835.5
711.2
815.6
PBT
882.5
1,233.9
1,344.5
1,376.0
1,575.3
1,812.3
1,951.9
Taxes
327.9
488.7
493.4
533.0
582.8
670.6
722.2
PAT
554.7
745.2
851.1
843.0
992.4
1,141.8
1,229.7
4.7
45.6
0.2
9.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
549.9
699.6
851.0
833.9
992.4
1,141.8
1,229.7
41.3
33.9
15.8
13.7
9.3
10.1
39.2
18.0
10.2
11.6
5.2
10.9
27.2
21.6
-2.0
19.0
15.1
7.7
OPM (%)
13.0
12.8
11.3
10.7
10.5
10.1
10.2
NPM (%)
5.7
5.1
4.6
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.2
Balance Sheet
Particulars
` Mn
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Sources of Funds
Share Capital
161.4
162.4
163.3
164.0
201.4
201.4
201.4
2,543.7
3,217.5
4,024.8
4,747.3
5,506.1
8,620.0
9,616.0
2,705.1
3,379.8
4,188.1
4,911.3
5,707.5
8,821.4
9,817.4
1,607.5
2,249.0
3,125.1
3,689.7
3,947.0
1,659.3
2,026.1
55.1
67.9
91.0
177.5
177.5
177.5
177.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,367.8
5,696.7
7,404.7
8,778.6
9,832.1
10,658.2
12,021.1
Gross Block
979.8
1,140.6
1,901.1
2,438.1
2,685.4
2,935.4
3,735.4
385.6
456.2
550.5
687.8
889.2
1,109.3
1,378.3
Net Block
594.1
684.4
1,350.6
1,750.4
1,796.3
1,826.1
2,357.2
11.2
15.0
51.8
27.3
30.0
380.0
30.0
121.0
95.6
166.6
166.6
166.6
166.6
166.6
3,617.6
4,884.1
5,823.6
6,834.3
7,839.2
8,285.5
9,467.3
23.9
17.5
12.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4,367.8
5,696.7
7,404.7
8,778.6
9,832.1
10,658.2
12,021.1
ACMIIL
21
SECTOR REPORT
` Mn
FY07
FY08
882.5
FY09
1,233.9
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
1,344.5
1,376.0
1,575.3
1,812.3
1,951.9
Add
Depreciation
Interest
Profit before working capital changes
59.4
72.0
99.6
178.6
201.4
220.2
269.0
329.3
467.3
687.7
795.7
835.5
711.2
815.6
1,354.3
1,824.5
2,167.6
2,299.8
2,612.1
2,743.7
3,036.4
-1,399.0
-1,198.1
-1,005.8
-81.5
-1,068.8
-651.5
-825.0
Less Taxes
-334.8
-487.0
-653.3
-489.7
-582.8
-670.6
-722.2
-384.2
93.9
508.5
1,728.6
960.4
1,421.6
1,489.2
-173.0
-164.3
-378.8
-1,265.9
-250.0
-600.0
-450.0
611.1
117.2
121.2
-311.4
-811.8
-989.4
-682.4
53.9
46.8
250.9
151.3
-101.3
-167.8
356.9
39.3
93.2
140.0
390.9
542.2
440.9
273.1
93.2
140.0
390.9
542.2
440.9
273.1
629.9
Ratios
Particulars
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Profitability Ratios
OPM (%)
13.0
12.8
11.3
10.7
10.5
10.1
10.2
5.7
5.1
4.6
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.2
RONW (%)
20.3
20.7
20.3
17.0
17.4
12.9
12.5
ROCE (%)
27.7
29.9
27.4
24.7
24.5
23.7
23.0
6.7
8.5
10.4
10.2
9.9
11.3
12.2
7.5
10.0
11.6
12.5
11.9
13.5
14.9
33.5
41.6
51.3
59.9
56.7
87.6
97.5
P/E (x)
7.7
7.9
6.9
6.4
P/CEPS (x)
6.3
6.6
5.8
5.2
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.4
0.9
0.8
Debt/Equity
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.2
0.2
Current Ratio
2.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
Turnover Ratios
Debtors turnover ratio
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
11.9
17.3
12.0
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.5
16.4
20.1
13.6
12.2
13.5
14.5
12.4
ACMIIL
22
SECTOR REPORT
INR Mn
20/01/2011
3,390
20/01/2011
400
3/1/2011
9,420
3/1/2011
380
Order type
Country
India
BOP - NMDC
India
Substations order
Kazakhstan
India
India
27/12/2010
3,130
27/12/2011
2460
27/12/2011
1,300
27/12/2011
970
India
765 Kv Line
SA
27/12/2011
970
Railway
India
27/12/2011
1,350
India
3/10/2010
7,350
Canada
3/10/2010
1,580
Transmission Line
Nigeria
3/10/2010
1,350
3/10/2010
950
India
Transmission Line
India
3/10/2010
1,120
Railway
India
3/10/2010
1,760
India
5/8/2010
920
India
5/8/2010
620
220 kV substation
5/8/2010
510
5/8/2010
450
Transmission line
UAE
30/07/2010
570
India
30/07/2010
300
Bhutan
India
Railways - electrification
Malaysia
Georgia
8/7/2010
3,260
8/7/2010
660
Transmission Line
Zambia
8/7/2010
420
Transmission Line
Philippines
8/7/2010
1,230
India
ACMIIL
23
SECTOR REPORT
Transmission Lines
Name of the Projects
North EastNorth/Western Interconnector-I 800kV HVDC Tangla-Kokrajhar-Barabisa section of Biswanath Chariyali-
Agra transmission line for Power Grid Corporation of India Limited, India. Total length of the line is 211 Kms.
Mundra-Mohindergarh Transmission Line 500kV HVDC Mundra-Mohindergarh transmission line for Adani Power
Feb-11
Jul-11
Energy Limited, India. Total length of all the lines is 1,500 Kms.
400kV Alamathy-Sunguvarchatram Transmission Line 400 kV multi circuit transmission line from Alamathy
Apr-11
substation to Sunguvarchatram substation for Tamil Nadu Electricity Board, India. Total length of all the line is 49 Kms.
`North East-Northern/Western InterconnectorI 400kV double circuit lower Subhansiri-Biswanath Chariyali
Oct-11
transmission line for Power Grid Corporation of India Limited, India. Total length of the line is 170 Kms.
U P Power Transmission Corporation Ltd. 765kV single circuit Anpara D-Jhusi, 765kV single circuit Anpara C-Anpara
Feb-12
D Interconnector and shifting of 765kV single circuit Anpara B-Unnao to Anpara C for U P Power Transmission
Corporation Limited, India. Total length of the line is 202 Kms.
Bhutan Power Corporation Ltd. 400kV double circuit Punatsangchhu I to Sunkosh transmission line under (Package-A
Jul-14
& B) for Bhutan Power Corporation Limited, Bhutan. Total length of the line is 210 Kms.
Substations
Name of the Projects
Amargarh & Alusteng Substations at Jammu 220/132kV substations at Amargarh & Alusteng for Jammu Kashmir
Dec-11
Power Project in Assam for National Thermal Power Corporation Limited, India.
Substation Package S1 for Wanpoh Substation under NRSS-XVI 400/220kV Wanpoh (New) Substation and
Dec-12
Extension of 400kV Kishenpur Substation under Northern Region System Strengthening Scheme-XVI for Power
Grid Corporation of India Limited, India.
Rural Electrification
Name of the Projects
Nashik & Pune District Rural electrification works under Infrastructure Plan (Phase-II) in Nashik and Pune Zones
Apr-11
20-Mar
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SECTOR REPORT
Notes:
Institutional Sales:
Ravindra Nath, Tel: +91 22 2858 3400
Kirti Bagri, Tel: +91 22 2858 3731
K.Subramanyam, Tel: +91 22 2858 3739
Email: instsales@acm.co.in
Institutional Dealing:
Email: instdealing@acm.co.in
Disclaimer:
This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon such. ACMIIL or
any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information
contained in the report. ACMIIL and/or Promoters of ACMIIL and/or the relatives of promoters and/or employees of ACMIIL may have interest/position, financial or
otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency we have incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should
however not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report
Disclosure of Interest
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
NO
This document has been prepared by the Research Desk of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd. and is meant for use of the recipient only and is not for
circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security.
The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We
may from time to time have positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein.
SEBI Regn No: BSE INB 010607233 (Cash); INF 010607233 (F&O), NSE INB 230607239 (Cash); INF 230607239 (F&O)
ACMIIL
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