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Under 156.400, the de minimis variation for cost-share reduction plans is a single percentage point.
inputs. The final section describes the AV Calculator interface and the calculation of actuarial
value based on the interface and the continuance tables. The final 2015 AV Calculator is
available at: http://www.cms.gov/cciio/resources/regulations-and-guidance/index.html.
Overview of Changes in the Final 2015 AV Calculator and Methodology
While the final AV methodology detailed in this document and the final AV Calculator are the
same as the 2014 versions, the changes incorporated in this document are reflective of
clarifications, where appropriate, to explain the operations and methodologies behind the AV
Calculator and are also incorporated into the AV Calculator User Guide.
For the final 2015 AV Calculator, one change was made to account for the updated 2015 annual
limit on cost sharing (as known as the MOOP limit) and the related functions in the AV
Calculator. Similar to the 2014 AV Calculator, the final 2015 AV Calculator includes an
estimated MOOP limit to allow versatility of the AV Calculator. Specifically, the MOOP limit
in the 2015 AV Calculator was increased from $6,500 to $6,850 to account for the estimated
2015 annual limit on cost-sharing. Plan designs must not exceed the annual MOOP limit that is
established in regulation regardless of the limit included in the AV Calculator. In future years
when the AV Calculator is updated through implementation of the parameters set forth in the
final rule, this limit will be likely finalized in the annual HHS notice of benefit and payment
parameters, after the final AV Calculator is released.
As discussed in the final rule, since we are not finalizing the proposed 2015 AV Calculator at
this time (with the exception of the updated estimated annual limit on cost sharing), we do not
address the technical comments on the proposed 2015 AV Calculator and methodology, but we
will take them under consideration when we update the AV Calculator in the future. As
discussed in the final rule, in future years when updating the AV Calculator, we also intend to
take under consideration feedback submitted by stakeholders to the CMS Actuarial Value email
address at actuarialvalue@cms.hhs.gov.
Data Sources and Methods
This section describes the data and methods used to create the building blocks of the AV
Calculator, including the development of the standard population. The inputs for AV calculation
are information on utilization, cost-sharing and total costs for health services for a standard
population of health plan enrollees resembling those likely to be covered by individual and small
group market health insurance in 2014; the standard population developed for 2014 was not
modified for the final 2015 calculator. This information is used to create a series of continuance
tables that describe the distribution of claims spending for a population of health insurance users
that we are proposing as the standard population. The standard population is the basis for these
continuance tables from a utilization perspective.
Because spending is affected by plan design through induced demand, the claims data are used to
develop four sets of continuance tables, based on bronze, silver, gold and platinum plan designs.
The AV Calculator estimates the actuarial value of a plan design based on the aggregated data
contained in the four sets of continuance tables representing each plans metal tier.
The remainder of this document outlines the process for creating and using each of these
components in turn. The first section describes the large national claims database that was used
as the basis to develop the standard population. In addition, preliminary adjustments to that
database are described in the first section. The second section explains the process for adjusting
and supplementing the claims data in the national database to better estimate the individual and
small group markets in 2014 to develop the standard population. The third section describes the
methodology for using the claims database to develop the continuance tables. Finally, the last
section details the process for accounting for spending and utilization of certain EHB that are
poorly represented in the database.
National Database
To provide information on utilization and cost sharing for a standard population of enrollees,
HHS began with claims data from the Health Intelligence Company, LLC (HIC) database for
calendar year 2010. This commercial database includes detailed enrollment and claims
information for individuals who are members of several regional insurers and covers over 54
million individuals enrolled in individual and group health plans. A database including enrollees
in small group plans is desirable because 83 percent 2 of small group plans do not offer multiple
choices of plans, reducing selection bias between plans. Including claims in the small group
market permits the continuance tables to be based on induced demand assumptions that reflect
plan design options that will be available in 2014, particularly the bronze and silver options that
are described in 45 CFR 156.140. In addition, large group health plans tend to have gold and
platinum level benefit generosity, and data on these plans offer information about gold and
platinum plan design options. As described below, several adjustments were made to this data to
more closely represent the expected population of enrollees in 2014 and these adjustments are
included in the final 2015 AV Calculator.
Since descriptions of the plan benefit design characteristics were not included in the database,
cost sharing variables, including copayments, coinsurance and deductibles from the claims data
were used to infer the member and plan shares of the total spending that is reflected in the
database, as described below. 3 The data contains spending, demographic and enrollment
information at the member level, including age, sex, family structure, presence of a pre-existing
condition, enrollment, spending, and number of claims. Enrollees are grouped into Product
Client Contracts (PCCs) defined by plan type (for example, PPO, HMO, indemnity, etc.) and
benefit design for a given contract or plan group. The AV Calculator treats each PCC as a
separate health plan, since each PCC represents a uniform benefit structure under a contract or
plan group. However, in practice a regional health plan may operate multiple PCCs. All cost
data in the database are trended forward to 2014; no additional trending was incorporated into
the final 2015 AV Calculator.
Spending and claims information is provided in the database both for total services and for each
of the following medical and drug service categories:
Emergency Room Services
All Inpatient Hospital Services (including Mental Health and Substance Use
Disorder Services)
Primary Care Visit to Treat an Injury or Illness (excluding Preventive Well
Baby, Preventive, and X-rays 4)
Specialist Visit
Mental/Behavioral Health and Substance Abuse Disorder Outpatient Services
Imaging (CT/PET Scans, MRIs)
Rehabilitative Speech Therapy
Rehabilitative Occupational and Rehabilitative Physical Therapy
Preventive Care/Screening/Immunization
Laboratory Outpatient and Professional Services
X-rays and Diagnostic Imaging
Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF)
Outpatient Facility Fee (e.g., Ambulatory Surgery Center)
Outpatient Surgery Physician/Surgical Services
Drug Categories
o Generics
o Preferred Brand Drugs
o Non-Preferred Brand Drugs
o Specialty Drugs (High Cost)
With the exception of preventive care, the claims database defines which services fall into each
category. In addition, the database provides a breakdown of whether a service and associated
cost is considered part of Outpatient Surgery Physician/Surgical Services or Outpatient Facility
Fees for the following service categories: Mental Health and Substance Use Disorder, Advanced
Imaging, Rehabilitative Speech Therapy, Occupational and Physical Therapy, Diagnostic
Laboratory, and Unclassified (medical). In the development of the continuance tables based on
the standard population, we relied on this aspect of the database to account for separate
If special cost-share provisions are indicated for Primary Care and/or Specialist Office Visits, certain office visits
will be split into their component parts only if those office visits include services that do not have special costsharing provisions (not having special cost-sharing provisions is defined as being Subject to Deductible, Subject to
Coinsurance, with no special coinsurance rate and no copayment). This is applicable to X-rays, and the component
parts are Primary Care Office Visit and Specialist Office Visit. For example, if Primary Care office visits are not
subject to the deductible and have a $20 copayment, but X-rays are subject to the deductible and general
coinsurance, a Primary Care office visit that includes an X-ray will be split into two services, a Primary Care office
visit and an X-ray.
copayments and cost sharing payments applying to the professional and facility components of
services.
Preventive care is defined, and claims are categorized, using the CPT code list from the US
Preventive Services Task Force. The services defined as preventive care correspond to the
preventive services covered without cost sharing under section 2713 of the Affordable Care Act.
To prepare the data for use in the continuance tables, several enrollment restrictions are applied
to ensure that the data represent a full year of utilization experience for enrollees. The full data
include 39,184,536 enrollees and 767,517 PPO/POS (Point of Service) plans. Restricting to
group PPO/POS with drug coverage and at least 50 enrollees brings the count down to
15,243,652 enrollees and 61,647 plans. In the absence of plan benefit design information directly
from the plans that submitted data to this commercial database, the cost-sharing parameters that
apply to individuals are inferred from the spending data to aid in the construction of the
continuance tables. To ensure that the imputation procedure can be applied effectively, plans
with utilization data that are likely incomplete are excluded. Specifically, to be included, plans
with more than 50 members must be PPO/POS plans with positive drug enrollment in at least
one month, and plans with over 1,000 members must additionally have at least one claim with a
maternity DRG. Moreover, all plans must have at least one member with over $5,000 in
spending. For plans that meet these requirements, the 90th percentile of positive deductibles that
are at least $250 lower than the amount of total spending for all enrollees within a PCC is set as
the plan deductible, and the 90th percentile of beneficiary spending above $1,000 over all
enrollees within a PCC is set as the plan MOOP limit. The coinsurance rate is estimated by
examining the coinsurance variable on claims for plan members with spending between the
deductible and the MOOP. Spending data are also used to impute copayments for several
services including in-patient (IP) services, emergency room (ER) services, primary care office
visits, specialist office visits, and four tiers of prescription drugs: generics, preferred brand drugs,
non-preferred brand drugs, and specialty high-cost drugs.
To prepare the data for use in the continuance tables, additional restrictions are made to exclude
implausible plan designs. Plans with zero spending for all enrollees and plans with imputed
coinsurance rates that fall outside the range of 0-100 percent are dropped. Additionally, plandemographic group combinations with negative realized actuarial value are dropped. Enrollees
with unspecified sex are also excluded. The resulting database consisting of 12,553,043
enrollees and 46,359 plans was used to construct the continuance tables, subject to the additional
adjustments identified in the next two sections of this document.
The final 2015 AV Calculator does not include new enrollment data in the continuance tables
and only applies the adjustments that were made in 2014. Specifically, when we began
considering potential updates for the AV Calculator for 2015, there was uncertainty regarding the
2014 claims costs based on the cost of plans being offered by issuers and the actual enrollment
patterns of Exchange members. A July 2013 report by the Department of Health and Human
Services Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) found that 2014 premium
rates for certain states were averaging 18 percent lower for the lowest cost silver plan than the
expected estimate for the 2014 individual market premiums. 5 Additionally, ASPEs September
2013 report found that the weighted average for second lowest cost silver plan premium rates for
48 states will be 16 percent lower than projected by the Congressional Budget Office. 6 Thus,
since actual enrollment data was not available to analyze when we began considering updates to
the AV Calculator and changes to the enrolled population could only be accounted for through
another projection of the enrolled population, no enrollment updates were applied for the 2015
AV Calculator. Provisions for reweighting the AV Calculator based on actual enrollment data in
the future are discussed in the final rule.
Standard Population Development and Adjustment from Primary Claims Data
The claims data, excluding the populations and plans noted above, provide the raw material for
developing a standard population based on the expected enrollment in individual plans for the
years 2014 and beyond. Utilization and spending in this data do not necessarily represent
utilization and spending in the population expected to participate in the individual and small
group markets. Further adjustment is therefore necessary to reflect the expected enrollment in
plans required to use the AV Calculator; as noted above, the expected standard population
developed for the 2014 AV Calculator was not modified for the final 2015 AV Calculator.
We anticipate that the standard population should be composed of the following:
Newly insured individuals: Most currently uninsured individuals will be eligible to enroll in the
individual or small group markets beginning in 2014. Because the data in the commercial
database represent a population insured under group policies with guaranteed issue, utilization in
this group is likely to adequately represent utilization among the newly insured. However, it is
possible that there is pent-up demand for health services in this group due to their prior lack of
insurance. The AV Calculator is intended for multiple years of use and pent-up demand (to
whatever extent it occurs) is likely to greatly diminish over time. The continuance tables
therefore do not incorporate any adjustment for additional utilization due to pent-up demand in
this group.
Individuals in the status quo individual market: After January 1, 2014, utilization in the group of
enrollees in the individual market is likely to be comparable to enrollees in the database, so no
adjustments in addition to those noted above are incorporated to account for this group.
Individuals in the small group market: The database consists of individuals with group coverage,
and we expect the small group population after January 1, 2014 to be very similar to the current
group market enrollees. Therefore, no adjustments in addition to those noted above are
incorporated to account for this group.
APSEs Issue Brief on Market Competition Works: Proposed Silver Premiums in the 2014 Individual and Small
Group Markets Are Nearly 20% Lower than Expected is available at:
http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2013/MarketCompetitionPremiums/rb_premiums.pdf
6
APSEs Issue Brief on Health Insurance Marketplace Premiums for 2014 is available at:
http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/2013/marketplacepremiums/ib_marketplace_premiums.cfm
Individuals moving out of employer coverage: If individuals move from employer coverage to
the individual market, their utilization is likely to be comparable to enrollees in the database, so
there is no adjustment in addition to those noted above to account for this group.
Individuals with Medicaid eligibility for part of the year: During the course of a year, some
individuals enrolled in Medicaid will become ineligible due to income and will enroll in the
individual or small group markets. Utilization in this group is likely to be similar to that among
enrollees in the group market because the ability to move up out of Medicaid income levels and
into employment likely indicates better health status than that of the average Medicaid
beneficiary. Therefore, no adjustments are incorporated to account for this group.
High risk individuals: As of June 2013, about 60,000 people were enrolled in state high risk
pools (HRPs), and about 44,000 were enrolled in the federally-administered or stateadministered Pre-existing Condition Insurance Plans (PCIP). 7 Average spending for individuals
in both the HRPs and the PCIP is substantially higher than spending for enrollees in the claims
database. Individuals in state high-risk pools have average spending of about $10,900 per year,
based on 2010 annual state high-risk pool expenses reported by the National Conference of State
Legislatures (NCSL) 8 and most have annual spending that consistently exceeds their plans
MOOP. While states have the flexibility to keep high risk pools open beyond 2014, the
continuance tables include adjustments to the existing utilization data to account for both of these
populations as described in the following section.
Similar to the enrollment data, the claims data for the standard population was not further
adjusted or further trended between 2014 and 2015. In recognition of the importance of market
stability for both issuers and consumers from year-to-year, updates to the trend in the AV
Calculator was not applied for 2015 and no new claims data was taken into account to better
ensure that issuers might not have to make benefit changes. The final methodology for updating
the AV Calculators claims data, including trending, in the future years is discussed in the final
rule.
Constructing Continuance Tables
Continuance tables summarize the claims experience and utilization of the standard population
and are therefore the key input to calculating actuarial value. Specifically, a continuance table
describes the distribution of claims spending for a population of health insurance users who face
a particular benefit structure. The set of continuance tables underlying the AV Calculator reflect
the standard population developed by the Secretary to implement section 1302(d) of the
Affordable Care Act. The continuance tables themselves, as a representation of the standard
population and not the standard population itself, are a component of the rules for determining
actuarial value under the EHB Final Rule and are available at
http://www.cms.gov/cciio/resources/regulations-and-guidance/index.html.
7
The June 2013 PCIP enrollment data by state is available on the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
website: http://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Fact-Sheets-and-FAQs/Downloads/pcip-expenditures-6-302013.pdf.
8
NCSL annual spending data by state is available on the organizations website: http://www.ncsl.org/issuesresearch/health/high-risk-pools-for-health-coverage.aspx.
The continuance tables rank enrollees by allowed total charges (after any provider discounts but
before any member cost-sharing) and group them by ranges of spending. These ranges of
spending define the rows of the continuance table. The data are then used to calculate the
number of enrollees with total spending falling within each range, the cumulative average cost in
the range for all enrollees, and the average cost for all enrollees whose total spending falls within
the range. For each service type listed above, the columns of the continuance table display the
average cost of spending on that service type that is attributed to cumulative enrollees in each
range 9 and the average frequency of the service type per enrollee.
To construct the continuance tables from the underlying utilization data, enrollees are separated
into groups based on common plan enrollment, sex, and age bracket, and each group is assigned
to a metal level based on the estimated actuarial value of the plan. Separate continuance tables
are created based on the utilization of enrollees in the same metal tier, sex, and age bracket.
Because continuance tables are constructed for plan designs with similar actuarial values, the
tables must account for changes in utilization induced by plan design. To account for this
induced demand, each continuance table reflects utilization of individuals from the claims
database in plans with actuarial values in each of the four metal tiers. That is, each plan in the
database is assigned an actuarial value based on the service utilization and plan payments for
enrollee groups in that plan, and enrollees are grouped by these values into the metal tiers. The
continuance tables for each metal tier are based on utilization data from enrollees in the claims
database with estimated actuarial values within +/- 5 percentage points of the target actuarial
value for each metal tier.
To estimate actuarial value for each plan, the realized actuarial value of the imputed benefit
characteristics is calculated for groups of enrollees by age, sex, and spending bracket; the
spending brackets are $0 to $250, $250 to $500, $500 to $1,500, $1,500 to $5,000, $5,000 to
$15,000, $15,000 to $25,000, and $25,000 and over. Nonlinear least squares regressions, a
statistical technique, are used to develop models estimating actuarial value based on the imputed
cost shares in each of the spending brackets.
The utilization data are then used to create continuance tables for each sex/age group and each
metal tier. Only utilization data from enrollees with exactly 12 months of enrollment or
newborns are used in the continuance tables in order to represent a consumers view of what
cost-sharing to expect in a full 12 months of eligibility. The continuance tables for bronze and
silver plans are based on utilization of enrollees in PPO/POS plans with between 50 and 250
enrollees with estimated actuarial values in the bronze and silver range. 10 Utilization data from
10
Because the bronze and silver tables use only enrollees in plans with between 50 and 250 enrollees, the overall
means are distorted due to random observations of extreme spending above the 99th percentile. To account for this
distortion, enrollees above $45,000 in total allowed spending were combined between the two continuance tables,
with the average proportion and utilization rates being applied for all buckets above $45,000 for both bronze and
silver tables. A further ad hoc adjustment of reducing bronze spending by 4 percent for all enrollees below the
$45,000 cut-off rate is made to emulate the difference in mean spending observed in the full empirical HIC
distributions.
all group plans with more than 50 enrollees and estimated actuarial values in the gold and
platinum range is used to construct continuance tables for gold and platinum plans.
To produce a single continuance table for each metal tier, each of the separate continuance tables
representing age/sex groups for a given metal tier are assembled into a single metal-levelspecific continuance table, with each sex/age-group cell weighted by expected individual market
participation in the corresponding metal tier for enrollees with those characteristics. 11 Expected
market participation for each sex/age group is estimated by a model developed by HHS to
predict 2014 insurance enrollment. The model estimates market enrollment in a manner that
incorporates the effects of policy choices and accounts for the behavior of individuals and
employers. The model was developed with reference to existing models such as those of the
Congressional Budget Office and the Office of the Actuary, to characterize medical expenditures
and enrollment choices across the 2014 marketplace. The model is made up of integrated
modules which predict the number and characteristics of enrollees and their medical
spending. The outputs of the model, especially the estimated enrollment and expenditure
distributions, were used to analyze estimated enrollment in the 2014 marketplace. For a
continuance table representing a particular metal tier, the HHS model predicts the share that each
age/sex group represents of the full enrollee population at that metal tier.
Separate continuance tables for medical services and prescription drugs underlie the AV
Calculator to accommodate the input of benefit structures with separate deductibles for these
types of spending. To estimate costs for a plan with a separate drug benefit, the continuance
table must include only non-drug claims to determine actuarial value for the medical portion of
the plan. To produce a single AV for this type of plan, the plan-covered spending on drugs and
medical services are added together and divided by total spending.
Because enrollees in the group market data do not fully represent the population expected to
enroll in the individual and small group markets for either 2014 or 2015 (including the
Exchanges), the continuance tables are adjusted to include spending by enrollees in both the
federal and state-administered PCIP and the state HRPs. As explained above, PCIP and HRP
enrollees generally have spending far above the individual market average, and most exceed the
MOOP; however we have only average claims for this population. To adjust for the presence of
these individuals, first the incremental spending for all PCIP enrollees is averaged across all
market enrollees, including PCIP, by dividing the increment of expected spending for all PCIP
members above the expected spending for the standard population by the expected individual
market population in 2014. An analogous calculation is made for HRP enrollees.
Second, both of these per-member-per-year amounts are added to the average-cost-per-member
column in the final row of each combined continuance table, which represents the average cost
over all enrollees. This step adjusts the continuance tables to reflect that spending by PCIP and
HRP enrollees is expected to increase average total spending for enrollees that are reflected in
the standard population and the continuance tables.
11
We expect that small group participation is similar to individual market participation in terms of age and sex
distribution.
Third, a weighted portion of the per-member-per-year costs for PCIP and HRP enrollees is added
to the average-cost-per-enrollee column of each row of the continuance table. The weight for
each row is chosen so that the median of the distribution of medical spending for PCIP and HRP
enrollees is equal to that of ER spending, and the median of drug spending is equal to that of
generic drug spending. For the combined medical and drug continuance tables, the weight of
each row is chosen so that the median of the combined distribution for PCIP and HRP enrollees
is equal to that of ER spending. ER spending was chosen for this process because the distribution
of ER spending in the claims database was the most closely aligned of all spending types to the
observed distribution of spending among PCIP/HRP enrollees. This step spreads spending for
PCIP and HRP enrollees across the distribution of enrollee spending in accordance with
observed distributions of spending for high-risk enrollees relative to MOOP. It is important to
note that incorporating spending for PCIP and HRP enrollees creates a gap in the continuance
tables between the average-cost-per-enrollee derived from the national claims database and the
data used in the AV calculation, which is the sum of the weighted portion of the per-memberper-year costs for PCIP and HRP enrollees and the average-cost-per-enrollee from the claims
database that is used in the calculation.
Essential Health Benefits Generally Not Represented in Current Policies
Certain EHB that must be covered under the definition of EHB in the EHB Final Rule are
relatively uncommon among the insured population reflected in the 2010 claims database that
was used to develop the standard population and the continuance tables. These EHB services
include pediatric oral and vision and habilitative services. The continuance tables incorporate a
number of assumptions and additional data sources to ensure the AV Calculator will account for
these benefits.
Pediatric oral services must be covered by all EHB- benchmark plans. The continuance tables
incorporate assumed utilization of pediatric dental visits based on estimates from an analysis
performed for the National Association of Dental Plans (NADP). The NADP estimated per-child
per month cost for preventive services is annualized and then multiplied by the expected
participation rate of children in the exchange based on the Affordable Care Act Health Insurance
Model (ACAHIM) Market Enrollment module. Spending for these services is incorporated into
the continuance tables using a similar method to that described above for incorporating PCIP and
HRP spending. First, the per-member-per-year spending is added to the average-cost-permember column in the final row of each combined continuance table, which represents the
average cost over all enrollees. This accounts for the increase in average per-member spending
for these services. Next, a weighted portion of the per-member-per-year cost is added to the
average-cost-per-enrollee column of each row of the continuance table, with the weight
proportional to the ratio of the spending limit for that row to the highest cumulative-averagecost-per-enrollee listed in the continuance table. 12 This spreads the cost for pediatric dental
services across the spending distribution but puts the bulk of those costs in the highest spending
brackets, under the assumption that enrollees who spend more on all services are likely to spend
more on pediatric oral services.
12
For example, assume that the highest cumulative average cost per enrollee is $10,000. If the spending limit for a
row of the continuance table is $1,000, the weight is proportional to 1,000/10,000.
Pediatric vision services must also be covered by all EHB benchmark plans. Spending for these
services is incorporated into the continuance tables by the same method for pediatric dental
services using a cost estimate from a public employee health plan.
Generally, habilitative services are intended to create and/or maintain function. Given the
transitional nature of the approach to habilitation services in the EHB Final Rule and that the
utilization of these services is assumed to be low across the entire enrollee population, at this
time the continuance tables do not incorporate any additional adjustments for these services.
The AV Calculator Interface
This section describes the AV Calculator interface and how inputs into the calculator are used
to determine AV. The inputs for the calculator were based on the 10 broad categories of EHB
and determined through a combination of consultation with actuarial experts and testing the
magnitude of the effect of parameters on the calculated actuarial value as well as comments
received. The calculator is designed to produce a summarized AV rounded to the nearest tenth
of a percentage point based on the continuance tables described above and the cost sharing
inputs described below.
Plan Benefit Features Allowed as Inputs
Plan design structures are characterized by cost-sharing features that determine the division of
expenses between the plan and the insured. The ratio of the share of total costs paid by the plan
relative to the total costs of covered services is the AV of the plan. No summary calculator
could capture every single potential plan variation, nor are they necessary for an accurate
calculation of AV. However, empirically, the vast majority of the variation between the AVs of
health plans is captured by a finite number of variables, and the calculator focuses on accurately
determining plan actuarial values based on this set of key plan characteristics. Therefore, the
calculator includes only these key characteristics that have a significant effect on actuarial value.
The user inputs a combination of metal tier and cost-sharing features, and the AV Calculator
uses these inputs and the continuance tables to produce an AV for the health plan. The metal
tier input allows the AV Calculator to account for induced demand by using the set of
continuance tables for that specified metal tier. This is necessary to take into account the
differences in utilization that are based on generosity of the health plan (i.e. induced utilization).
Deductibles, general rates for coinsurance, and MOOPs generally have a significant effect on
utilization and the share of plan-covered expenses. The AV Calculator allows the user to specify
either an integrated deductible that applies to both medical and drug expenses or separate
deductibles for each type of spending. Similarly, if a plan design has separate medical and drug
MOOP spending limits, the user may specify either an integrated MOOP or separate MOOPs for
medical and drug spending. The user may also specify different coinsurance rates for medical
and drug spending.
The AV Calculator allows the user to specify coinsurance rates and copayments for the medical
services listed on page 4 of this document, along with the deductible, general coinsurance, and
out-of-pocket maximum. In addition the AV Calculator allows the user to specify whether
services are subject to deductible or subject to coinsurance.
The AV Calculator does not allow the user to subject recommended preventive care to a
copayment or deductible because the Affordable Care Act directs that these services be covered
by the plan at 100 percent. 13
The AV Calculator also allows users to specify other plan details. For inpatient and skilled
nursing facility services, the default option is that copayments and coinsurance costs apply per
stay, but these may be applied at the per day level by choosing the corresponding options. If
inpatient copayment costs are applied per day, the user may specify that these copayments only
apply for a set number of days chosen by the user, ranging from the first one to ten days in the
hospital. Users may also specify that cost sharing for primary care visits only applies after a set
number of visits chosen by the user, ranging from one to ten visits. Alternatively, users may
specify that the deductible or coinsurance does not apply to primary care services until after a set
number of visits, ranging from one to ten visits; during this initial set of visits, the enrollee pays a
per-visit primary care copayment. Users may specify cost-sharing for four tiers of prescription
drugs: generics, 14 preferred brand drugs, non-preferred brand drugs, and specialty high-cost
drugs. Additionally, the user may specify that for specialty tier drugs, the enrollee pays the
lesser of either the specialty drug coinsurance or a set dollar limit chosen by the user. The
calculator also incorporates health savings accounts (HSAs) and health reimbursement
arrangements (HRAs) that are integrated with group health plans if the amounts may only be
used for cost-sharing; to use this option the user must include an annual amount contributed by
the employer or in the case of HRAs, the amount first made available (sometimes referred to in
this document as HRA contributions).
Plans typically apply very different cost-sharing structures to in-network and out-of-network
utilization. However, our empirical analysis of the claims database and other analyses by the
American Academy of Actuaries indicate that relatively little utilization actually occurs out of
network in terms of total dollars. In testing of the AV Calculator, AVs, including and excluding
out-of-network spending, differed by less than one percent. In addition, 45 CFR 156.130(c)
requires that only in-network costs apply to the MOOP. For standard plans with in-network and
out-of-network tiers, the AV Calculator therefore produces estimates of actuarial value based
only on in-network utilization and allows the user to specify only in-network cost-sharing
parameters. This is consistent with 156.135(b)(4).
13
For the purposes of the AV calculator, preventive care means the services required to be covered without cost
sharing under Section 2713 of the Public Health Service Act and its implementing regulations. See 45 C.F.R.
147.130.
14
From a technical perspective, it is important to note that the generic drug category in the claims data base includes
maintenance drugs. To address the fact that not all maintenance drugs are generics and that some of those drugs are
high cost, we have revised the definition of the generic drug category to only include maintenance drugs that cost
less than $50 per prescription.
The final 2015 AV Calculator can accommodate plans utilizing a multi-tiered network with up to
two tiers. Users may input separate cost-sharing parameterssuch as deductibles, coinsurance
rates, MOOPs, and schedules for service-specific copayments and coinsuranceand specify the
share of utilization that occurs within each tier. The resulting actuarial value is a blend of the
AV for the two tiers.
Calculating Actuarial Value
AV is the anticipated covered medical spending for EHB coverage (as defined in 156.110(a))
paid by a health plan for a standard population, computed in accordance with the plans costsharing, and divided by the total anticipated allowed charges for EHB coverage provided to a
standard population. It is reflected as the percentage and basically means the value of the total
expenditures for EHB that are covered by the plan. The denominator of this calculation is
simply the average allowed cost of all services for the standard population in the year for a
specified metal tier; the numerator is calculated as the share of average allowed cost covered by
the plan, using the cost-sharing parameters specified.
The remainder of this section describes each step in the calculation of actuarial value for the
various plan structures that may be specified by the user. Before proceeding with the
calculation, the calculator checks that the user has specified the necessary deductibles,
coinsurance, and MOOPs consistent with the choice of integrated or separate deductibles and
MOOPs for medical and drug expenses. The calculator also checks that the deductible is less
than the MOOP and that the MOOP (or sum of the MOOPs, for plans with separate medical and
drug MOOPs) is less than $6,850. 15 Per the final rule, the AV Calculator uses an estimated
MOOP limit. Plan designs must not exceed the annual MOOP limit that is established in
regulation regardless of the limit included in the AV Calculator.
If the users chosen inputs for deductible and MOOP are not exactly equal to the spending
thresholds used in constructing the continuance table, the values are pro-rated using linear
interpolation. For instance, if a user enters a $150 deductible, then the AV Calculator estimates
the amount of spending below the deductible by interpolating between the average cost per
enrollee that occurs below the $100 threshold on the continuance table and the average cost per
enrollee that occurs below the $200 threshold on the continuance table. In this case, if the
average cost per enrollee at the $100 threshold was $85 and the average cost per enrollee at the
$200 threshold was $185, the interpolated average cost per enrollee would be $135 (halfway
between $85 and $185).
Step 1: Set Metal Tier
The user enters the desired metal tier for the calculation, and the calculator selects the
corresponding continuance tables for use in all remaining steps of the calculation.
15
The AV calculator allows for a MOOP up to $6,850 to ensure that once the annual limit on cost-sharing for 2015
is defined, the calculator will be able to accommodate a slightly higher MOOP to allow versatility of the AV
calculator.
16
It is important to note that incorporating spending for PCIP and HRP enrollees creates a gap between the averagecost-per-enrollee derived from the national claims database and the data used in the AV calculation, as it is the sum
of the weighted portion of the per-member-per-year costs for PCIP and HRP enrollees and the average-cost-perenrollee from the claims database that is used in the calculation.
Variations on the process include the following: (a) If the user limits IP copayments to a set number of days, the
AV calculator compares the IP frequency at the Annual HSA Contribution Amount to the set number of days. If the
IP frequency is less than or equal to the set number of days, the calculation proceeds normally. However, if the IP
frequency is greater than the set number of days, the AV calculator multiplies the set number of days by the
copayment and subtracts the resulting total copayment spending from the average cost of the benefit to compute
plan-covered spending. (b) If the user selects the option restricting primary care cost sharing to care after a set
number of visits, the AV calculator first determines whether or not the primary care frequency at the Annual HSA
Contribution Amount exceeds the set number of visits. If the frequency is less than or equal to the set number of
visits, the copayment does not apply and the plan-covered spending equals the full value of average cost for that
service. However, if the frequency is greater than the set number of visits, the AV calculator subtracts the set
number of visits from the frequency and multiplies the result by the copayment to obtain total enrollee copayment
spending. The AV calculator then subtracts total enrollee copayment spending from the average cost for that service
to compute total plan-covered spending.
To calculate plan-covered expenses up to the amount of the deductible for drugs in plans with
separate medical and drug deductibles, the calculator relies on the continuance tables for the plan
metal tier that are constructed from drug claims. For each drug benefit type, the calculator
identifies the average cost for that benefit listed in the row of the continuance table that
corresponds to the plan drug deductible (which may be pro-rated, if necessary). If the benefit
type is not subject to either deductible or copayment, the calculator adds this per-member
spending amount to the total plan-covered expenses in full. If the benefit type is subject to
copayment but not deductible, the calculator divides average cost for that benefit by the
frequency for the benefit type to estimate the per-service cost. The calculator next subtracts the
copayment for the benefit type from the per-service cost and multiplies the resulting value by the
benefit-type frequency to produce total plan-covered expenses for the benefit type. Copayments
are set equal to the service unit costs and if the copayment is greater than the service unit cost,
the AV Calculator only accounts for the cost up to the service unit costs. This applies for copays
where the remainder of the service cost is covered by the plan in the deductible range and applies
for all copays in the coinsurance range. In the calculator, it is applied when the Subject to the
Deductible? is not checked for the deductible range. This is a clarification on what the 2014
AV Calculator was doing. This result is added to the total plan-covered expenses.
At the conclusion of these steps, plan-covered expenses in the numerator include all plancovered expenses for spending up to the amount corresponding to the deductible.
The calculator also tracks the average cost per enrollee at the amount of the deductible, which is
used in later steps. For plans with an integrated deductible, this is the average cost per enrollee
at a level of spending equal to the deductible, listed in the corresponding row of the combined
continuance table. For plans with separate deductibles, this is the sum of the average cost per
enrollee at spending equal to the medical deductible, listed in the corresponding row of the
medical continuance table, and the average cost per enrollee at spending equal to the drug
deductible, listed in the corresponding row of the drug continuance table. For plans with
separate medical and drug deductibles, the calculator uses the drug-claim continuance table to
track the average cost per enrollee corresponding to the plan drug deductible (which may be prorated); this value is also used in later steps.
in the combined continuance table to obtain the average cost per enrollee at the modified MOOP
limit. For plans with separate MOOPs, the calculator performs this process separately for
medical and drug benefits and their corresponding deductibles, modified MOOPs, and
continuance tables to obtain separate average cost estimates for medical and drug spending at the
relevant modified MOOP.
While the modified MOOP created by this adjustment does not capture the precise effect of
copayments, it provides a value that adequately fulfills the needs of the remaining calculation
steps. Small differences between the modified MOOP calculated by this method and the
exact MOOP that applies are unlikely to have a significant effect on the output of the AV
Calculator.
Step 6: Calculate Plan-Covered Expenses for Spending Between the Deductible and the
MOOP
To calculate expenses covered by the plan in the coinsurance range (that is, the plans spending
for services when spending is between the amount corresponding to the deductible and the
amount corresponding to the modified MOOP), the calculator examines each of the medical and
drug benefits listed in the calculator to determine whether they are subject to coinsurance and
copayment. The computation for each benefit type depends on the coinsurance and copayment
requirements applying to that type. First, the calculator computes plan-covered expenses for
benefits not subject to the overall plan coinsurance rate or benefits subject to the overall plan
coinsurance rate within set limits. Second, the calculator computes the average cost per enrollee
at the modified MOOP adjusted for costs for all services not subject to the overall plan
coinsurance rate. Finally, this adjusted average cost is used to compute plan-covered expenses
for benefits subject to the overall plan coinsurance rate. The narrower the range between the
deductible and the MOOP, as in the case for bronze plans, the smaller the role this computation
plays in the overall actuarial value of the plan.
The calculator computes plan-covered expenses for benefits not subject to the overall plan
coinsurance rate and benefits subject to a restricted form of the plan coinsurance rate as follows:
For each benefit type that is subject to coinsurance at a coinsurance rate
different from the overall plan coinsurance rate, the calculator subtracts the
average cost of that benefit corresponding to spending at the deductible from
the average cost of that benefit corresponding to spending at the modified
MOOP to obtain the average costs for that benefit that are attributed to
spending in the range between the deductible and the modified MOOP.
Multiplying this average cost by the benefits coinsurance rate produces plancovered expenses for this benefit in the range, which are included in the
numerator.
For each benefit type subject to copayment but not coinsurance, the calculator
divides average cost at spending at the deductible for that benefit by the
frequency for that benefit type to estimate the per-service cost at that spending
level. The calculator then subtracts the benefit copayment from the perservice cost and multiplies the result by the benefit frequency to produce plancovered spending for the benefit corresponding to spending at the deductible.
Next, the calculator follows a similar process to calculate plan-covered
is less than or equal to the frequency at the modified MOOP, then plancovered spending equals the difference between the average cost of services at
the modified MOOP and the average cost of services at the deductible.
However, if the set number of visits is greater than the frequency at the
modified MOOP, the calculator computes the beneficiary cost-sharing amount
by subtracting the set number of visits from the frequency and multiplying the
result by the coinsurance rate. The AV Calculator then computes plancovered spending by subtracting the beneficiary cost-sharing amount from the
difference between the average cost of services at the modified MOOP and the
average cost of services at the deductible. 18
At the completion of these steps, the numerator includes plan-covered expenses in the range of
spending between the MOOP and deductible for all services except those that are subject to the
plans overall coinsurance rate.
Next, to account for spending on services already considered in this step, the calculator subtracts
the sum of the average cost for each of those services from average cost per enrollee for
spending at the modified MOOP to obtain adjusted average cost at the modified MOOP.
Finally, the process for computing plan-covered expenses in the coinsurance range for the
remaining benefit types depends on both whether the plan has integrated or separate deductibles
and whether the deductible or deductibles equal the MOOP. If the plan has an integrated
deductible, plan-covered expenses for services not already considered in this step (i.e., services
subject to the overall plan coinsurance rate) are equal to the coinsurance rate multiplied by
spending on these remaining services. This spending is calculated as the difference between
average cost at the level corresponding to the modified MOOP, adjusted as described above for
spending on services already considered in this step, and average cost at the level corresponding
to the deductible.
If the plan has separate medical and drug deductibles, the remaining plan-covered expenses in
this range have two components. The first component, for medical spending, is equal to the
coinsurance rate multiplied by spending on medical services in the range between the modified
MOOP and deductible. This spending is calculated as the difference between average cost at the
level corresponding to the modified MOOP, adjusted as described above for spending on
services already considered in this step, and average cost for drug benefits subject to the plans
overall coinsurance rate at spending corresponding to the modified MOOP, less the difference
between average cost at the deductible and average cost for all drug benefits at the deductible.
That is, the calculator adjusts both the modified MOOP and the deductible for costs attributed to
drugs so that spending on medical services can be considered separately. The second
18
The AV calculator follows a similar process if primary care services are subject to coinsurance and the user
specifies that cost-sharing only applies after a set number of visits with copayments. If the set number of copayment
visits is less than or equal to the frequency for primary care at the modified MOOP, the AV calculator computes
plan-covered spending in this range using the process described above but subtracting the copayment amount
multiplied by the frequency for primary care at the modified MOOP. Similarly, if the set number of copayment
visits exceeds the frequency at the modified MOOP, the calculator computes plan-covered spending in this range as
described above but contracting the copayment amount multiplied by the copayment visit limit.
component, for drug spending, is calculated in a parallel manner, and is equal to the drug
coinsurance rate multiplied by drug spending in the range between the modified MOOP and
deductible. This spending is computed as the difference between average cost for drug benefits
subject to the plans overall coinsurance rate at spending corresponding to the modified MOOP
and average cost for all drug benefits at the deductible. Again, the calculator adjusts both the
modified MOOP and the deductible for costs attributed to medical services so that spending on
prescription drugs can be considered separately.
If the medical deductible for a plan with separate deductibles is equal to the MOOP, the
calculator computes the medical component using a coinsurance rate equal to one, because all
medical expenses in this range are covered by the plan. If the drug deductible is equal to the
MOOP, the calculator computes the drug component using a drug coinsurance rate equal to one,
because all drug expenses in this range are covered by the plan.
For plans with separate MOOPs for medical and drug spending, the calculator uses a variation of
the process described above: calculating plan-covered expenses separately for medical and drug
spending falling between the corresponding separate deductibles and modified MOOPs. This
variation is described below. First, for benefits not subject to the overall plan coinsurance rate or
benefits subject to a restricted form of the plan coinsurance rate, the calculator uses the same
process as described above to calculate spending between the deductible and the modified
MOOP, but it uses the medical deductible and modified MOOP for calculations involving
medical benefits and the drug deductible and modified MOOP for drug benefits. At the
conclusion of this step, the numerator includes plan-covered expenses in the range of spending
between each benefit types corresponding MOOP and deductible for all services except those
that are subject to the plans overall unrestricted coinsurance rate.
Second, the calculator subtracts the sum of the average cost of medical services not subject to the
unrestricted plan coinsurance rate from the average cost per enrollee at the modified medical
MOOP, and performs a corresponding calculation for drug services not subject to the
unrestricted plan coinsurance rate. This step adjusts the average costs for medical and drug
benefits at the corresponding modified MOOPs to account for spending on benefits not subject to
the unrestricted plan coinsurance rate.
Finally, for benefits subject to the plan coinsurance rate without restriction, the calculator uses a
similar process as described above to calculate spending between the deductible and the MOOP;
however, this step relies on the separate medical and drug deductibles and modified MOOPs to
calculate spending for medical and drug benefits. As in the above process, the calculator
computes spending separately for medical and drug benefits. However, it is unnecessary to
adjust the deductible and modified MOOP to account for spending in the other benefit type due
to the separate medical and drug deductibles and modified MOOPs.
At the conclusion of this step, the numerator includes plan-covered expenses for all spending
below the MOOP (or MOOPs).
in the individual market through the Exchange. 19 These plan variations must have reduced cost
sharing and meet specified AV levels depending on the enrollees household income. To use the
AV Calculator to verify the AV of a plan variation, users should select the indicator that the plan
meets the CSR standard, and select the desired metal tier. The below table provides information
on which metal tier should be chosen to align with the expected utilization for each plan
variation. Please note that the metal tier continuance tables indicated below should be used
regardless of any error message prompting the use of a different continuance table.
Household Income
100-150% of FPL
150-200% of FPL
200-250% of FPL
After the other information has been entered, and the AV is calculated, the AV Calculator will
produce an additional output message, which describes whether the plan satisfies the AV
requirements for enrollees at a particular percentage of FPL.
19
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; HHS Notice of Benefit and Payment Parameters for 2014, 78 FR 15410 (March
11, 2013), codified at 45 CFR 156.420.